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Uncertainty is a fact of political life but not a fact of political communication. Elites are prone to make confident predictions and downplay uncertainty about future outcomes, presumably fearing that the acknowledgement of uncertainty would undermine public confidence in their predictions and the evidence they are based on. But this calculation might both exaggerate the costs and downplay the potential benefits of reporting uncertainty. On costs, the evidence from previous studies is mixed; on benefits, previous research has neglected the possibility that, by acknowledging that outcomes may be worse than expected, those communicating uncertainty will dampen public reactions to the bad news. Here, based on a two-stage online survey experiment (N = 2,165) from December 2020 about COVID-19 vaccines, we find results suggesting that governments are well advised to communicate uncertainty. The costs at Stage 1 were low: reporting a confidence interval around the safety and effectiveness of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine did not undermine belief in the statistics or intentions to take the vaccine. And there were indeed benefits at Stage 2: when outcomes turned out to be worse than expected but within that confidence interval, confidence in the vaccine was partly insulated from negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depression is the most common mental illness and its profound impact on cognition and decision‐making has implications for political judgement. However, those implications are unclear in the case of referendums offering a choice between status quo and change. On one hand, one component of depression is the kind of life dissatisfaction associated with voting for change. Yet cognitive models also portray depression sufferers as biased towards the status quo: they are less inclined to research change, more pessimistic about its benefits and more likely to exaggerate its potential costs. In this paper, we use data from Understanding Society to examine the impact of those cross‐pressures on support for Brexit. Prior to the referendum, while life dissatisfaction and generally poor health predicted support for Leaving the European Union (EU), those diagnosed with depression were disproportionately likely to support Remain. Supporting our claim that the latter was a sign of status quo bias, this difference disappeared once the result was in and leaving the EU had become the widespread expectation. The study highlights the unexplored importance of mental health for political judgements, emphasises the multidimensionality of conditions like depression and illustrates the psychological role of status quo bias in referendum voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine several strands of research from electoral behavior and party politics to suggest that ideological moderation will boost a party's perceived competence. Less radical parties are seen as readier to compromise, more realistic about what can be achieved, and less prone to simplistic solutions. The results of conjoint experiments with party profiles show that while an ideological leaning carries no cost, any appreciably left‐ or right‐wing position eroded a party's perceived competence among a representative sample of around 2,000 British citizens. This effect holds when controlling for respondents' ideological proximity to the party in question, and it looks to operate through all three of the proposed mechanisms suggested above—especially willingness to compromise. These findings have important implications both for party strategy and for voting research, highlighting a key channel through which ideological moderation yields electoral gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objective To review the therapist effects literature since Baldwin and Imel's (2013) review. Method Systematic literature review of three databases (PsycINFO, PubMed and Web of Science) replicating Baldwin and Imel (2013) search terms. Weighted averages of therapist effects (TEs) were calculated, and a critical narrative review of included studies conducted. Results Twenty studies met inclusion criteria (3 RCTs; 17 practice-based) with 19 studies using multilevel modeling. TEs were found in 19 studies. The TE range for all studies was 0.2% to 29% (weighted average = 5%). For RCTs, 1%–29% (weighted average = 8.2%). For practice-based studies, 0.2–21% (weighted average = 5%). The university counseling subsample yielded a lower TE (2.4%) than in other groupings (i.e., primary care, mixed clinical settings, and specialist/focused settings). Therapist sample sizes remained lower than recommended, and few studies appeared to be designed specifically as TE studies, with too few examples of maximising the research potential of large routine patient datasets. Conclusions Therapist effects are a robust phenomenon although considerable heterogeneity exists across studies. Patient severity appeared related to TE size. TEs from RCTs were highly variable. Using an overall therapist effects statistic may lack precision, and TEs might be better reported separately for specific clinical settings. Highlights • Therapist effects in naturalistic studies averaged 5% (range 0.2–21.0%). • Therapist effects in university counseling centers averaged 2.4% (range 0.4–19.1%). • Therapist effects in RCTs averaged 8.2% (range 1–29%). • There was considerable heterogeneity across studies and greater therapist effects were consistently linked to higher patient severity. • Many studies still have insufficient numbers of therapists and are not specifically designed as studies of therapist effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the expansive literature on military casualties and support for war, we know very little about public reactions to foreign civilian casualties. This article, based on representative sample surveys in the United States and Britain, reports four survey experiments weaving information about civilian casualties into vignettes about Western military action. These produce consistent evidence of civilian casualty aversion: where death tolls were higher, support for force was invariably and significantly lower. Casualty effects were moderate in size but robust across our two cases and across different scenarios. They were also strikingly resistant to moderation by other factors manipulated in the experiments, such as the framing of casualties or their religious affiliation. The importance of numbers over even strongly humanizing frames points toward a utilitarian rather than a social psychological model of casualty aversion. Either way, civilian casualties deserve a more prominent place in the literature on public support for war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metal oxides, when electronically doped with oxygen vacancies, aliovalent dopants, or interstitial dopants, can exhibit metallic behavior due to the stabilization of a substantial charge carrier concentration within the material. As a result, localized surface plasmon resonances (LSPRs) occur in nanocrystals of conducting metal oxides. Through deliberate choice of both the host material and the defect, these resonances can be tuned across the entirety of the near- and mid-infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Optical modeling has revealed that the defects present have profound impacts on charge carrier mobility and electronic structure, and in some cases, choosing one dopant over another is an important trade-off for optimizing plasmonic performance. These materials are distinct from classical metals in that one can tune their LSPR in energy and intensity through their elemental composition independently of any particular size or nanocrystal morphology. In addition, the LSPR in these materials is highly modulable through external stimuli over substantial spectral windows. As a result, these materials uniquely provide a responsive plasmonic material that can offer optimal nanocrystal arrangements and morphology without compromising the intended resonance frequency for light concentration at any infrared wavelength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the influence of structural arrangement on long-duration blast loaded annealed glazing via variable thickness, area, aspect ratio and edge support conditions. Initially, the findings of eighteen full-scale air-blast trials employing 33 annealed glazing panels are reported where it is demonstrated that fracture mode and fragmentation are a strong function of edge supports. Rigidly clamped edges are shown to induce localised stress transmission, producing significant cracking and small fragments. In contrast, elastic edges are shown to produce large, angular fragments, demonstrating the importance of accurately modelling edge conditions when analysing fragment hazard. Quantification of peak centre panel deflection and breakage time is then presented where variable results indicate the influence of edge supports and aspect ratio to be dependent on proximity to the threshold area as a function of glazing thickness. An initial Applied Element Method (AEM) analysis is then employed to model the influence of structural arrangement on long-duration blast-loaded annealed glazing. AEM models are shown to reasonably predict glazing fragmentation behaviour, breakage time and peak panel deflection at the moment of breakage. Thus indicating AEM's potential suitability to provide a predictive capacity for annealed glazing response during long-duration blast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant, convectively induced windstorm known as a derecho occurred over parts of Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Colorado on 31 May 1994. The event was unusual in that it occurred not only in an environment of relatively limited moisture, but also one with a thermodynamic profile favorable for dry microbursts in the presence of moderate midtropospheric flow. The development and evolution of the severe wind-producing convective system is described, with emphasis on the synoptic and mesoscale features that may have contributed to its strength and maintenance. A very similar derecho that affected much the same region on 1 June 2002 is more briefly introduced. Questions are raised regarding the unique nature of these events and their potential utility in achieving an increased understanding of the mechanics of derecho-producing convective systems in more moisture-rich environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the transient dynamic loading and response of blast-loaded monolithic glazing. Blast damage to glazing is a complex phenomenon that is dependent on material properties, structural arrangement and proximity to the explosive source. Accurate models of glazing breakage and post-fracture performance can be challenging. Maximum principal stress exceedence at randomly distributed micro-flaws determines the initial fracture time and location. Many utilise simplified single-degree-of-freedom models to characterise break/no-break with limited capability to model fragment trajectories. Two full-scale blast trials conducted at MOD Shoeburyness investigated the monolithic glazing response as a function of panel thickness and blast stand-off. Bespoke instrumentation and high-speed photography captured the panel response, fragment velocity and blast overpressure, enabling a comparative study against computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses, conducted with Air3D. Domain and mesh refinement produced reasonably accurate blast flow replication, permitting overpressure solution remaps. Applied glazing loads were thus configured in an applied element method (AEM) model. Triangulated spatial discretisation permitted fragmentation patterns indicative of monolithic glazing. Synthesising CFD and AEM, this paper outlines accurate representations of the experimental results, demonstrating that the transient dynamic glazing response, including the post-fracture performance, can be modelled with this methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent article, Michael Laver has explained ' Why Vote- Seeking Parties May Make Voters Miserable'. His model shows that, while ideological convergence may boost congruence between governments and the median voter, it can reduce congruence between the party system and the electorate as a whole. Specifically, convergence can increase the mean distance between voters and their nearest party. In this article we show that this captures the reality of today's British party system. Policy scale placements in British Election Studies from 1987 to 2010 confirm that the pronounced convergence during the past decade has left the Conservatives and Labour closer together than would be optimal in terms of minimising the policy distance between the average voter and the nearest major party. We go on to demonstrate that this comes at a cost. Respondents who perceive themselves as further away from one of the major parties in the system tend to score lower on satisfaction with democracy. In short, vote-seeking parties have left the British party system less representative of the ideological diversity in the electorate, and thus made at least some British voters miserable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of public support for war highlight the importance of context. Most people do not simply support or oppose the use of force but instead assess its merits depending on various aspects of the situation. One such aspect is the extent of international backing – whether from individual states or supranational organizations – for military action. This backing may be active, notably through the contribution of troops, or more a passive matter of endorsement or authorization of action. In this article, a survey experiment embedded in a major internet survey of British foreign policy attitudes (N = 2,205) is used to explore how international backing affects public support for military action. Britain’s military potential and recent history make it an obvious case study here. Both active and endorsement backing prove to have separate and significant positive effects on support. Importantly, the absolute number of troops involved matters far less than the proportion of total troop numbers to be contributed. And the perceived strength of the enemy predicts support only when the British are to contribute a large proportion of total forces. Predispositional variables are used to investigate the sources of the experimental effects but with little success: the impact of international backing proves remarkably consistent across the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Some of the most important propositions in the political marketing literature hinge on assumptions about the electorate. In particular, voters are presumed to react in different ways to different orientations or postures. Yet there are theoretical reasons for questioning some of these assumptions, and certainly they have seldom been empirically tested. Here, we focus on one prominent example of political marketing research: Lees-Marshment’s orientations’ model. We investigate how the public reacts to product and market orientation, whether they see a trade-off between the two (a point in dispute among political marketing scholars), and whether partisans differ from non-partisan voters by being more inclined to value product over market orientation. Evidence from two mass sample surveys of the British public (both conducted online by YouGov) demonstrates important heterogeneity within the electorate, casts doubt on the core assumptions underlying some political marketing arguments and raises broader questions about what voters are looking for in a party. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article reports on an audience costs experiment embedded into a survey of the British public ( N = 2235). We extend previous research into audience costs in three main directions. First, we provide clear and direct evidence that they exist for a second-order democratic power, the United Kingdom. Second, we show that the extent of audience costs varies, and at times substantially, along with features of the crisis situation that have not been examined empirically in this context before. In particular, the type of crisis strongly influences public reactions both to bluffing in general and to the wisdom or otherwise of escalating crises before backing down. While audience costs do appear to exist for a UK Prime Minister, he or she cannot inflate them by moving up the escalation chain. Rather, a limited use of force tends to mitigate these costs among the British public because it appears to them a more consistent strategy. Third, we show that public disapproval of a failed bluffing strategy is stronger among the more politically engaged, increasing the likelihood that audience costs will be paid at the ballot box. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Tri-State tornado" event of 18 March 1925, with an official death toll of 695 people, generally is accepted as the deadliest single tornado in United States recorded history. The officially accepted damage path is 352 km (219 mi) long. The entire damage path was not surveyed by the Weather Bureau in 1925 to determine if it truly was continuous, and the nature of the tornado event and the storm that produced it are not well known. Therefore, as much new data as possible have been gathered about this event in all three states along and near the purported damage path. Detailed information about the locations where damage was reported and the type of damage (recorded as "damage points") was obtained from: interviews and driving surveys with first- and secondhand eyewitnesses, many local 1925 and later newspapers, local books, and photographs and other materials found in local libraries and genealogy centers. After plotting all damage points, a potential damage path of 378 km (235 mi) was indicated. However, 32 gaps ⩾1.6 km (1 mi) appeared between consecutive damage points. This paper presents all the damage points, and indicates which of the gaps might be "real" (i.e., where one tornado ended and another tornado developed), as well as those gaps more likely to have been a continuous tornado. We speculate that path segments at the beginning of the potential damage path in eastern Shannon County, MO, and at the end of the potential path in central Pike County, IN, were both likely from separate tornadoes. In the very rural and hilly terrain of southeast Missouri, there were areas with a minimum of human development and no known witnesses to the tornado (parts of Reynolds, Iron and Madison Counties). This led to several relatively long damage path gaps >3.2 km (2 mi). The existence of the relatively long gaps prevents confidence in the continuity of the first section of the path. Beginning in central Madison County, MO, and continuing to Pike County, IN, a distance of 280 km (174 mi), there are no gaps >3.2 km (2 mi), more strongly suggesting that the tornado was likely continuous for that path segment. Because of having the highest density of damage reports and the most eyewitness reports, the part of the main damage path that is 243 km (151 mi) long from central Bollinger County, MO to the west edge of Pike County, IN can be considered likely a continuous path. The tornado event was associated with what began as a classic supercell in Missouri, transitioning to high-precipitation mode in Illinois and Indiana. Witnesses saw a wedge tornado along most of the damage path and a large multivortex tornado in some areas. At two places in Illinois, a satellite tornado may have appeared at about the same time as the primary tornado was passing nearby. Another previously unreported tornado with a 32-km (20-mi) damage path occurred in Washington and Jackson Counties, IN, whose path and trajectory suggests that it may also have been produced by the same supercell. This new tornado started about 75 min later and about 105 km (65 mi) east-northeast of the apparent end of the Tri-State tornado damage path in Pike County, IN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scottish National Party's outright win in the Scottish Parliament election on 5 May 2011 confounded pre-election polls and commentaries as well as a (broadly) proportional electoral system which was held to minimise the risk of a Nationalist majority moving Scotland to independence. But an extraordinary result in historical context looks much more ordinary when we explore voters' attitudes and choices. According to data from the ESRC-funded Scottish Election Study 2011, the SNP won its majority for that most mundane of electoral reasons: most voters thought that the party would do a better job in office than its rivals, including its chief rival, the Labour Party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are considerable concerns about public perceptions of intelligence stemming directly from the highly politicized nature of intelligence estimates in the run-up to the US-UK invasion of Iraq in 2003. In this article we use a new public attitudes dataset to provide the first ever analysis of British public confidence in MI6 and Government use of intelligence. The article demonstrates that the public have relatively high confidence in the intelligence produced by MI6 but are extremely sceptical about how the Government will present that intelligence. Using an ordered logit model this article then examines the factors that influence public perceptions of both intelligence and Government, finding that women are a lot less confident in both the intelligence services and government presentation of intelligence than men, suggesting that this might help explain gender differences in support for military action. The study also demonstrates that party identifiers and Catholics have very low confidence in the intelligence produced by MI6. The study shows that public confidence in both government and intelligence has a strong effect on support for preventive military action against terror camps, suggesting that the intelligence agencies need to avoid being contaminated by political agendas as much as possible if the intelligence case for future military actions is to be supported by the public. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Research on public support for war shows that citizens are responsive to various aspects of strategic context. Less attention has been paid to the core characteristics of the target state. In this comparative study we report survey experiments manipulating two such characteristics, regime type and dominant faith, to test whether the “democratic peace” and the “clash of civilizations” theses are reflected in U.S. and British public opinion. The basic findings show small differences across the two cases: both publics were somewhat more inclined to use force against dictatorships than against democracies and against Islamic than against Christian countries. Respondent religion played no moderating role in Britain: Christians and nonbelievers were alike readier to attack Islamic states. However, in the United States, the dominant faith effect was driven entirely by Christians. Together, our results imply that public judgments are driven as much by images and identities as by strategic calculations of threat. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recent major surveys of the Scottish electorate and of Scottish National Party (SNP) members have revealed a distinct gender gap in support for the party. Men are markedly more likely than women to vote for the SNP and they comprise more than two-thirds of its membership. In this article, we use data from those surveys to test various possible explanations for the disproportionately male support for the SNP. While popular accounts have focused on the gendered appeal of recent leaders and on the party’s fluctuating efforts at achieving gender equality in its parliamentary representation, we find much stronger support for a different explanation. Women are less inclined to support and to join the SNP because they are markedly less supportive of its central objective of independence for Scotland. Since men and women barely differ in their reported national identities, the origins of this gender gap in support for independence presents a puzzle for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Neil Kinnock expressed scepticism about Gordon Brown's likely showing in the 2010 election debates, suggesting that the Labour leader had a 'radio face'. We report an experiment in which students were split randomly between audio and video conditions for the third debate. As Kinnock predicted, Gordon Brown was more often proclaimed the winner by listeners. Nick Clegg, not David Cameron, benefited most from television. These differences were statistically significant despite a small sample (n = 63). We test three explanations for Clegg's advantage: (i) that television boosts the salience of certain traits (notably attractiveness); (ii) that television boosts the importance of 'style' over 'substance'; (iii) that listeners form judgements based on performance throughout the debate, while viewers are disproportionately influenced by memorable incidents or remarks. There is evidence supporting all three explanations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature has found that photographs of politicians can influence electoral preferences. In this article we assess whether candidates rating higher on electoral attractiveness perform better in a series of hypothetical elections, and whether their advantage is magnified when their appearance is printed not only on campaign materials but also on ballot papers. We find that candidate appearance only had a significant impact on vote choice when photographs were printed on ballot papers, and even then there was an impact on only some of the elections, notably those pitting male against female candidates. Photographs had most impact on the choices of those least interested in politics and least likely to vote, and magnified a tendency (among voters of all ages) to favour younger candidates and to penalise older candidates. Findings suggest that the addition of photographs to ballot papers could affect the outcomes of marginal British constituency races. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When considering elections in multi-level contexts, scholars have typically assumed-in line with second-order election theory-that the way voters approach an election depends on their attributions of responsibility, that is, on what they see as being at stake in that election. This assumption is questionable. The formal position is not always clear, and is further blurred by parties and the media. Moreover, many voters pay little attention to politics and have little incentive to trace constitutional responsibilities. In this paper I use data from election studies in two multi-level contexts, Ontario and Scotland, to explore the nature and impact of voters' attributions of responsibility. The evidence suggests that, when called upon in surveys to do so, many voters can confidently and fairly accurately assign issues to different levels of government. Yet they do not seem to consider these attributions much at elections. There is very little indication that issues weighed heavier in the decision-making of those who regarded them as the responsibility of that electoral arena. A plausible explanation is that most voters sidestep the cognitive demands imposed by multi-level elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scottish Parliament elections of 2007 were the third to be held under the country’s mixed-member proportional system. As voters continue to adapt to the new system, we explore two aspects of its use: i) preferences for coalitions as opposed to single-party government, and ii) ticket-splitting. The two are considered together for two reasons. First, both can be seen as manifestations of a preference for multiple parties, and as a result they share a number of likely predictors in common. In empirical practice, however, we find that rather different factors predict the two variables: ticket-splitting looks to be based on strategic partisan or ideological calculation, whereas coalition attitudes are less about partisan interests and more about an overall view of the kind of policies and politics delivered by coalitions. Second, there is potential for a causal connection between our two dependent variables, and indeed we do find clear evidence of such an attitude–behaviour link: some voters appear to split their ticket precisely because they would prefer a coalition. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article is about responses to the "most important issue" question used in numerous election polls and surveys. Following Wlezien's work, two interpretations of the question can be sketched: (1) personal (the issue most important to the respondent) and (2) contextual (the issue that respondents perceive as topping the national political agenda). Using British Election Study data from 2005, the author shows that issues prominent in that campaign were often cited as most important by respondents who were neither particularly knowledgeable about those issues nor particularly influenced by them when voting. In sum, the contextual interpretation predominates. Hence, whatever else it is, "most important issue" is not an accurate gauge of salience effects in models of vote choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a ‘process-tracing’ method to test directly for delegation heuristic processing in university students' judgements on the Iranian nuclear issue. A substantial minority sought guidance on foreign policy decisions, either from parties, international actors or newspapers. This was not always simple delegation; some used such heuristics within more complex decision-making processes. However, others relied on simple delegation, raising questions about the ‘effectiveness’ of their processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we use evidence from the Scottish Election Study 2007 to build an explanation for the narrow SNP victory in the Holyrood election. The theoretical focus is on valence models of voting, which are increasingly important in Scotland following dealignment and ideological convergence in the party system, and as Scottish governments flex their executive muscle. Exploring the valence battleground reveals mixed but overall negative evaluations of Labour's performance in government, and suggests advantages for the SNP on issue competence, leadership and party image. Modelling party choice at the individual level shows that key valence variables – performance evaluations, economic competence and party image – have strong and significant effects, unlike hitherto prominent factors like religion, class and national identity. Constitutional preferences are important too, but their effects suggest a further valence link: the SNP's strong showing among voters seeking further devolution but opposed to independence is due in large part to its credentials as a battler for Scottish interests. In contrast, Labour's stand against ‘more powers’ may have tarnished its own reputation on that score. We conclude that the SNP edged home by persuading enough voters that it had a positive agenda for governing Scotland within the current constitutional arrangements, and that it could deliver on that agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reports on a small-scale enquiry into the value for Japanese social work students of learning about international social work. The study highlights a number of practice-related benefits for students, linking these to contemporary Japanese and UK social work education and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is clear that coalition governments are likely to become a fact of political life in Scotland. In this paper we use data from the 2007 Scottish Election Study to examine how well the Scottish public understands these governing arrangements and whether they are developing stable and consistent attitudes towards coalitions in general. The results suggest that, while currently there is considerable confusion, Scottish voters are slowly learning to cope with coalitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we analyse the Vlaams Blok's ideological production on the issue of 'Europe', identifying a rhetorical strategy of subverting the common equivalence between the 'EU' and 'Europe'. We then estimate the receptivity of Flemish voters to this strategy. Our study combines qualitative analysis of Vlaams Blok ideology with regard to 'Europe', the EU and immigration, and quantitative analysis of Flemish public attitudes towards those objects. Our research suggests that the party is applying a more 'cosmopolitan' veneer to its rhetoric on Europe, perhaps in a bid to win support from a wider pool of voters who identify as 'Europeans' and might recoil from overtly racist rhetoric. The ideological analysis shows that a positive image of Europe as a 'civilisation' is connected with the idea of Flanders as a 'European' nation, and the need to defend this civilisation provides the justification for rejecting 'non-European' immigration. Further, this positive outlook on 'Europe' is set in stark contrast to a negative portrayal of the EU, which is held responsible for the swamping of Europe under a tide of that 'non-European' immigration. Comparisons with public opinion show that Vlaams Blok ideological constructions find an echo in voter attitudes. When encouraged to evaluate 'Europe' independently of the EU, voters with extreme right attitudes are willing and able to do so, and many express a positive identification with 'Europe' while remaining strongly anti-EU. This applies especially to the party's target voters: those with anti-immigrant attitudes but who have not (yet) supported the Blok. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies show that voters make judgements about politicians—their competence, honesty, warmth and so on—on the basis of physical appearance, and that these judgements can influence voting behaviour. This raises the possibility of two different gender gaps: (i) female and male candidates may be evaluated differently, ultimately affecting their relative electoral performance; and (ii) female and male voters may react differently to candidate images. We explore this using a stacked data set of evaluations of 36 UK MPs by 368 undergraduate students, and find evidence of both gender gaps. First, we confirm the persistent finding that voters assign ‘warmth’ traits to female and ‘strength’ traits to male candidates. Such stereotyping has an interesting impact on electoral preference: male candidates were judged more by warmth, female candidates more by strength, suggesting that stereotypical traits were taken for granted. Second, we find male voters more likely than female voters to see male candidates as stronger, and to prioritise strength in voting. Our results also support the view that gender and appearance heuristics are relied on most by those with little other basis for judgement, such as non-partisans. Hence, while gender effects on voting are weak when averaged across the whole electorate, they could be much stronger for (expanding) sub-groups of voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simple 5‐point Likert format is ubiquitous in British public opinion research. Yet recent thinking on survey response questions the validity of even the simplest measures. Respondents seek satisficing strategies to cope with the cognitive demands of answering, and the Likert midpoint provides such a strategy. This suggests that 4‐point scales might be more appropriate. Evidence is presented on who chooses the midpoint, and what they do when denied it. Omitting the midpoint may impair validity, because some respondents opt for it when they have no basis for choosing between agreement and disagreement. Yet omission may improve validity, because the midpoint is also used as a safe haven by a ‘silent minority’, taking refuge in that option rather than confessing to an unpopular viewpoint. The implication is that the midpoint should be offered on obscure topics, where many respondents will have no basis for choice, but omitted on controversial topics, where social desirability is uppermost in respondents’ minds. Applying these principles to the 2001 BES demonstrates that varying format by topic thus is not only advisable but also straightforward in practical terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Human Rights Act 1998 adopted the European Convention on Human Rights as a benchmark by which people's fundamental rights are to be respected and enforced. Before the passing of this Act recourse to the Convention was possible, but remedies were not always effective and influence on legislation was variable. With the passing of the Human Rights Act 1998, legislation itself and all public bodies' activities are potential areas for scrutiny by the courts. The implications for professional practice in certain key areas are profound, these being compulsory intervention, detention and treatment, protection of the vulnerable, privacy, and rights to family life. This article explores how the Convention may influence professional practice in the area of mental health. It does so by exploring key points of intervention at which professionals need to be mindful of the context for decision making set by the Convention and identifies a number of core principles for mental health practice already established by the European Court. The article is intended as an introduction to the role of the European Convention on Human Rights as it applies to practice and assumes no previous knowledge of case law or the Convention itself. It is not intended as an exhaustive account of the full implications of the Convention for all areas of practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suppose that one observes independent random variables (X1, Y1), (X2, Y2) ..., (Xn, Yn) in R² with unknown distributions, except that Median(Yi|Xi = x) = M(x) for some unknown isotonic function M. We describe an explicit algorithm for the computation of confidence bands for the median function M whose running time is of order O(n²). The bands rely on multiscale sign tests and are shown to have desirable asymptotic properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computer-assisted learning is now well established in many universities and offers a number of virtues that should commend it to social work educators. It offers a unique and valuable way of achieving certain learning outcomes that are of particular value in social work education. This paper presents one attempt to develop its potential by integrating Web-based tutorials into teaching social work law. It is suggested that Web-based learning has a unique and specific contribution to offer in enhancing student learning, but it does need to be carefully planned and integrated into teaching. Resistance to this form of learning needs to be anticipated; and the reasons for it considered for they may partly explain why the use of computer-assisted learning in social work education has, so far, been fairly limited. Nevertheless the 'added value' of Web-based learning is considerable so long as it is not regarded as some kind of cheap or 'soft' teaching option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, a number of methods have been employed to introduce students to issues of racism and discrimination and to link these issues with personal values. This paper contends that these methods have often been ineffective, and in some cases 'dangerous' in their unanticipated and undesired consequences. For example, focussing on explanations at the structural sociological level often fails to engage with issues at the personal level, whereas confrontational methods focussing on the culpability of the individual often produce discomfiture and resentment that prevents learning taking place. In addition, traditional confrontational methods are argued to be particularly unsuitable in multi-cultural and multi-ethnic groups, where undesirable and potentially destructive outcomes have been observed. Following a critique of existing teaching methods and their outcomes, an alternative approach is introduced supported by an account of the underpinning theoretical framework. Our rationale, a synthesis of pedagogy and social psychology, explores an effective and safe model of teaching and learning in this field, drawing on social identity theory, and explicitly addressing individual and collective attitudes and values. Some early results from pilot work thus far undertaken are presented as a work in progress, in addition to which a detailed description of the workshop format used is offered. Early results appear to show that this model for teaching and learning achieves the aim of being both safe and challenging, with potential for reflexivity at individual and group levels, and that it works particularly well in multi-cultural, multi-ethnic groups. Further evaluation is anticipated in order to measure the impact of the model on values and attitude change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the research paper `A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986-95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution.' Insufficiency of the data to prove that the warm-season high-frequency axis in the mid-Atlantic states is a climatological distribution for warm-season derechos.

Some political parties have experienced a resurgence in membership. This article seeks to explain membership surges in the Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and an unusually movement-like campaign. Using data from a 2016–17 survey of the parties' memberships, we examine why large numbers joined these pro-independence parties following defeat in the referendum. We demonstrate that the new members had experienced a sense of belonging to a Yes movement during the campaign but were not intensely active; and reasons for joining the parties look more conventional than movement-based. We argue that the referendum created a unique platform for the parties to advertise their objectives on the constitution and other policy areas and thus attract new recruits, few of whom were seeking to maintain the participatory activities that flourished during the referendum. The minority that are active movement-oriented joiners look the least likely to be satisfied by party membership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the impact of party representation on satisfaction with democracy. Our proposition is that such representation is not only about having a chosen party in government; citizens also derive satisfaction from having their views represented by a political party. We test this through an individual-level measure of policy (in)congruence: the ideological distance between a voter and his or her closest party. Via multi-level modelling of European Election Study data from 1989 to 2009, we find that perceived policy distance matters: the further away that voters see themselves from their nearest party – on either a left-right or a European unification policy dimension – the less satisfied they are with democracy. Notably, this effect is not moderated by party incumbency or size. Voters derive satisfaction from feeling represented by a nearby party even if it is small and out of office. Our results caution against a purely outcomes-driven understanding of democratic satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem., is an important outbreaking pest of balsam fir, Abies balsamea (L.) Mill, and black spruce, Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb., throughout the boreal forests of North America. 2. Despite several studies reporting higher performance for larvae on balsam fir versus those on black spruce, many females still lay eggs on spruce. In this 2‐year study, we explored possible tri‐trophic trade‐offs associated with host selection taking into account both larval overwintering and feeding periods. 3. Based on field surveys, parasitism rates were significantly higher for overwintering larvae on balsam fir than on black spruce in 2017. 4. Field bioassays confirmed past studies showing 21% higher larval survival on balsam fir versus black spruce, especially when larval emergence was synchronized with host budburst. 5. Considering both overwintering and feeding survival, overall spruce budworm performance was nearly equal between hosts, though larvae gained some advantage on balsam fir if larval feeding was synchronized with budburst. 6. These results suggest that female egg lay on both hosts may be a 'bet‐hedging' strategy that balances trade‐offs between higher parasitism and higher foliage quality on different potential host species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study compared an automated Escherichia coli and coliform detection system with the membrane filtration direct count technique for water testing. The automated instrument performed equal to or better than the membrane filtration test in analyzing E. coli-spiked samples and blind samples with interference from Proteus vulgaris or Aeromonas hydrophila. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• New scaling methodology developed for masonry structures subject to blast. • Scaling method utilises dynamic similitude to model damage state and rubble. • Scaling method found to closely model damage and rubble at range of overpressures. • Presents opportunity for blast trials to be conducted in smaller areas with lower cost. Full-scale experimental testing of masonry response to blast can be challenging with the requisite need for significant measurement area in conjunction with high construction and material costs. This paper investigates the use of dynamic similitude to produce reduced-scale masonry structures which model the damage state and debris distribution of a full-scale counterpart due to blast loading. An investigation into the fundamental physical components of masonry response to blast loading facilitated the development of a new scaling methodology which maintains the ratio of lateral and vertical force components as prescribed by dynamic similitude. It is shown that this can be accomplished by using a reciprocal scale factor for the reduced-scale structure's density. Computational models of full and reduced-scale masonry response to blast loading were produced with the Applied Element Method (AEM) to verify the underlying theory of the proposed scaling methodology. These utilised single-storey cuboid structures with non-responding roofs and half-thickness stretcher bond construction. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of blast wave interaction with the masonry structures were defined at a range of peak overpressures, enabling a remap procedure into AEM. Importantly, AEM models utilised a constant 1:2 scale factor with masonry material parameters for commercially available units, demonstrating the practical applications of this scaling methodology for blast trials. Analysis of the AEM models demonstrated close qualitative agreement in damage state for full and reduced-scale structures at 55 kPa and 110 kPa peak free-field overpressure. These results also indicated agreement for a range of failure modes with the 110 kPa model showing front-panel collapse versus the 55 kPa model which indicated partial front-panel deflection. Chi-square analysis of the resultant debris distribution at 110 kPa indicated quantitative agreement for the relative quantities of bricks found within the rubble pile as a function of their original panel wall location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on an experiment which was conducted to describe relative motion and Coriolis force. Details on the experiment; Information on Coriolis force; Indepth look at apparatus used to conduct the experiment.

With lethal opportunistic fungal infections on the rise, it is imperative to explore new methods to examine virulence mechanisms. The fungal cell wall is crucial for both the virulence and viability of Aspergillus nidulans. One wall component, Galf, has been shown to contribute to important fungal processes, integrity of the cell wall and pathogenesis. Here, we explore gene deletion strains lacking the penultimate enzyme in Galf biosynthesis (ugmAΔ) and the protein that transports Galf for incorporation into the cell wall (ugtAΔ). In applying gene deletion technology to the problem of cell wall integrity, we have employed multiple micro- and nano-scale imaging tools, including confocal fluorescence microscopy, electron microscopy, X-Ray fluorescence and atomic force microscopy. Atomic force microscopy allows quantification of ultrastructural cell wall architecture while near-field infrared spectroscopy provides spatially resolved chemical signatures, both at the nanoscale. Here, for the first time, we demonstrate correlative data collection with these two emerging modalities for the multiplexed in situ study of the nanoscale architecture and chemical composition of fungal cell walls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Describes a physics activity which illustrates the effect of the Coriolis force on the human arm. Investigation of the cause of the force; Explanation on the occurrence of the phenomenon depending on the rotation of the arm; Other ways to demonstrate the force.

Discusses two applications found in introductory texts and includes some dynamics that clarify motion without any force. Reasons a rock whirling at the end of a string speed up when it is pulled in; Force which speeds up the spinning skater when she brings her arms to the side.

Offers several tips on alternating current circuit measurements. Details on power strips used to measure alternative current; Way to get a voltage measurement; How to measure currents across a shunt.

An introduction is presented to the paper "The Declining Representativeness of the British Party System, and Why It Matters," by Heinz Brandenburg and Robert Johns, which was named the Editors' Choice for this issue and which discusses representative democracy in Great Britain.