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Summary Background Treatment for infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) during pregnancy has not yet been approved; however, interventions specifically targeting women, especially those of childbearing age (15–49 years), could prevent vertical transmission and community spread. To assess the impact of such interventions, improved prevalence estimates in this group are needed. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of viraemic HCV in 2019 among women of childbearing age. Methods In this modelling study, we used previously developed models for 110 countries inputted with country-specific demographic and HCV epidemiology data. We did a literature review, searching PubMed, Embase, and grey literature for studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2018, reporting HCV antibody or viraemic prevalence in women of childbearing age. Studies from the literature review and studies in models were compared by use of a data quality scoring system and models were updated, as appropriate, when a better study was identified. We used these HCV disease burden models to calculate the 2019 prevalence of viraemic HCV in women of childbearing age. In countries without a model, prevalence was extrapolated by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) region. Findings An estimated 14 860 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9 667 000–18 282 000) women aged 15–49 years had HCV infection worldwide in 2019, corresponding to a viraemic prevalence of 0·78% (95% UI 0·62–0·86). Globally, HCV prevalence increased with age, rising from 0·25% (95% UI 0·20–0·27) in women aged 15–19 years to 1·21% (0·97–1·34) in women aged 45–49 years. China (16% of total infections) and Pakistan (15%) had the greatest numbers of viraemic infections, but viraemic prevalence was highest in Mongolia (5·14%, 95% CI 3·46–6·28) and Burundi (4·91%, 3·80–18·75). Of the countries with 500 cases or more, viraemic prevalence was lowest in Chile (0·07%, 95% UI 0·04–0·12). Among the GBD regions, eastern Europe had the highest viraemic prevalence (3·39%, 95% UI 1·88–3·54). By WHO region, the Eastern Mediterranean region had the highest viraemic prevalence (1·75%, 95% UI 1·26– 1·90). Interpretation Most research on HCV disease burden among women aged 15–49 years focuses on pregnant women. Using modelling, this analysis provides global and national estimates of HCV prevalence in all women of childbearing age. These data can inform preconception test-and-treat strategies to reduce vertical transmission and total disease burden. Funding Gilead Sciences, John C Martin Foundation, private donors.

Background: No virologic cure exists for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and existing therapies are designed to control viral replication. We aimed to estimate the national prevalence of HBsAg in 2017 and study the impact of an enhanced diagnosis rate and universal treatment administration on HBV-related outcomes in Saudi Arabia. Materials and methods: A dynamic transmission and disease burden model was developed to estimate the future economic burden of HBV infection. The infected population was tracked by age and gender-defined cohorts; direct costs (healthcare, screening, diagnostics and treatment) and indirect costs (disability-adjusted life years and the value of a statistical life year) were calculated. The impact of two intervention scenarios (Achieve WHO Targets: diagnose 90% of infections and treat 80% of high viral load patients by 2030; and Diagnose and Treat All: diagnose and treat all infected patients by 2022) were compared against the Base Case scenario (no policy action), with near-universal vaccination coverage rates held constant. A sensitivity analysis of future treatment cost was also conducted. Results: In 2017, HBsAg prevalence was estimated at 1.7%, corresponding to 574,000 infections. The same year, there was an estimated incidence of 490 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 1500 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 1740 liver-related deaths (LRD). HBsAg prevalence was 0.1% among 5-year-olds and

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence estimates for adults and high-risk groups have been widely published, but the disease burden in children is poorly understood. Direct-acting antiviral drugs, which are considered to be highly effective curative therapies for HCV, are now approved for paediatric patients as young as 3 years. Reliable prevalence estimates for this population are needed to inform scale-up of treatment and national strategies. This analysis combines past modelling and epidemiological work in 104 countries and territories to estimate global HCV prevalence in children in 2018.In this modelling study, a comprehensive literature review for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2019, was used to determine historical HCV prevalence estimates in children in all 249 countries and territories of the world. We identified published HCV prevalence estimates for children aged 0-18 years who are not at high risk of HCV infection in 39 countries and territories and inputted them into dynamic Markov disease-burden models to estimate viraemic HCV prevalence in 2018. For 25 of them, which had complete data, available information on HCV prevalence in children was used to build regression models to predict paediatric prevalence in an additional 65 countries and territories that had country-specific or territory-specific data about predictors only. Regression models were created for each 5-year paediatric age cohort from 0 to 19 years, considering several predictor variables. The data and forecasts from the 104 countries and territories for which data were available were used to calculate HCV prevalence by Global Burden of Disease region, which was then applied to the remaining 145 countries and territories to generate a global estimate.The global estimate for viraemic prevalence in the paediatric population aged 0-18 years was 0·13% (95% uncertainty interval 0·08-0·16), corresponding to 3·26 million (2·07-3·90) children with HCV in 2018. HCV prevalence increased with age in all countries and territories. HCV prevalence in women of childbearing age was the strongest predictor of HCV prevalence in children aged 0-4 years (p0·0001). Prevalence of HCV in adults was significantly associated with HCV prevalence in children aged 5-19 years (p0·0001), and the proportion of HCV infections in people who inject drugs was significantly associated with HCV prevalence in children aged 15-19 years (p=0·036).Most studies on HCV prevalence in children focus on high-risk groups and highly endemic geographic areas. Our analysis provides global prevalence estimates of HCV in the paediatric population. Treatment in paediatric patients requires different clinical and population health management optimisation than in adults. Because of this heterogeneity, country-specific or territory-specific and age-specific HCV prevalence estimates can help countries and territories to improve national HCV elimination strategies.Gilead Sciences, John C Martin Foundation, and private donors.

Introduction and aim: Hepatitis C is a key challenge to public health in Brazil. The objective of this paper was to describe the Brazilian strategy for hepatitis C to meet the 2030 elimination goal proposed by World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the current HCV-infected Brazilian population, and to evaluate the relative costs of two different scenarios to address HCV disease burden in Brazil: (1) if no further changes are made to the HCV treatment program in Brazil; (2) where the WHO targets for 2030 elimination are met through diagnosis and treatment efforts peaking before 2024. Results: An anti-HCV prevalence of 0.53% was calculated for the total population. It was estimated that the number of HCV-RNA+ individuals in Brazil in 2017 was 632,000 (0.31% of the population). Scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time will be necessary in order to achieve WHO targets beginning in 2018. Direct costs (diagnostic, treatment and healthcare costs) are projected to increase significantly during the scale-up of treatment and diagnosis in the initial years of the intervention scenario, but then fall below the base case on an annual basis by 2025–2036, once HCV is eliminated, due to health sectors savings from the prevention of HCV liver-related morbidity and mortality. Conclusion: Achieving the WHO targets is technically feasible in Brazil with a scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time, beginning in 2018. However, elimination of hepatitis C requires policy changes to substantially scale-up prevention, screening and treatment of HCV, together with public health advocacy to raise awareness among affected populations and healthcare providers. Keywords: Hepatitis C, Hepatitis C elimination, Hepatitis C disease burden, Brazil

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000–3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0·64% (95% UI 0·41–0·74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000–1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36·4%), 150 000 (12 000–180 000) were treated (4·6% of the total infected population or 12·7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000–160 000) were cured (4·1%), and 57 900 (43 900–67 300) were newly infected (1·8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600–42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary. Funding Gilead Sciences.

PubMed: 29599078, 2-s2.0-85044540918, Background: The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. Although no virological cure exists for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, existing therapies to control viral replication and prophylaxis to minimise mother-to-child transmission make elimination of HBV feasible. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBsAg in the general population and in the population aged 5 years in 2016, as well as coverage of prophylaxis, diagnosis, and treatment. Methods: In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process that included a literature review in PubMed and Embase, followed by interviews with experts, to quantify the historical epidemiology of HBV infection. We then used a dynamic HBV transmission and progression model to estimate the country-level and regional-level prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 and the effect of prophylaxis and treatment on disease burden. Findings: We developed models for 120 countries, 78 of which were populated with data approved by experts. Using these models, we estimated that the global prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 was 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·4–4·6), corresponding to 291 992 000 (251 513 000–341 114 000) infections. Of these infections, around 29 million (10%) were diagnosed, and only 4·8 million (5%) of 94 million individuals eligible for treatment actually received antiviral therapy. Around 1·8 (1·6–2·2) million infections were in children aged 5 years, with a prevalence of 1·4% (1·2–1·6). We estimated that 87% of infants had received the three-dose HBV vaccination in the first year of life, 46% had received timely birth-dose vaccination, and 13% had received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. Less than 1% of mothers with a high viral load had received antiviral therapy to reduce mother-to-child transmission. Interpretation: Our estimate of HBV prevalence in 2016 differs from previous studies, potentially because we took into account the effect of infant prophylaxis and early childhood vaccination, as well as changing prevalence over time. Although some regions are well on their way to meeting prophylaxis and prevalence targets, all regions must substantially scale-up access to diagnosis and treatment to meet the global targets. Funding: John C Martin Foundation. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, H28-kansei-ippan-001 National Academy of Sciences, NAS Novartis Roche World Health Organization, WHO Gilead Sciences Alnylam Pharmaceuticals AbbVie Meso Scale Diagnostics, MSD British Microcirculation Society, BMS Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, JSPS: 17H03589 Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, MHLW Vetenskapsrådet, VR Siemens Universiteit Antwerpen OLL-683801, DR-S, IGa, SB, SMB, CE, KM, HMN, KP, KR-S, SR, JDS, and HR report grants from John C Martin Foundation, during the conduct of the study, and grants from Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, WHO, National Academy of Sciences, Intercept Pharmaceuticals, and Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. MHN reports grants and personal fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), Gilead Sciences, and Janssen, and personal fees from Novartis, Anylam, and Dynavax, outside the submitted work. PVD acts as chief and principal investigator for vaccine trials done on behalf of the University of Antwerp, Belgium, for which the University obtains research grants from vaccine manufacturers; speaker's fees for presentations on vaccines are paid directly to an educational fund held by the University of Antwerp, and PVD receives no personal remuneration for this work. ACA reports personal fees from Mylan Pharmaceuticals, outside the submitted work. JEA reports fees paid to his hospital for participation on the advisory boards of Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, BMS, Janssen, and AbbVie, and grants from BMS, Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD), AbbVie, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. TB reports grants, personal fees, and non-financial support from AbbVie and Gilead Sciences; grants and personal fees from BMS, Janssen, Roche, MSD, and Sequana Medical; and personal fees from Bayer, Vertex, Tibotec, Intercept, Sirtex, and Alexion, outside the submitted work. PB reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and MSD, outside the submitted work. MBr reports personal fees from BMS, Gilead Sciences, and Janssen, and grants from BMS, outside the submitted work. HLYC reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences, BMS, AbbVie, Roche, MedImmune, and Intellia, outside the submitted work. PBC reports grants from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and MSD, outside the submitted work. VC reports personal fees from AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences, and MSD, and grants from BMS, outside the submitted work. MCor reports personal fees from AbbVie, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Biogen Idec, Falk Foundation, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, MSD, Roche Diagnostics, Roche Pharma, and Siemens, outside the submitted work. SD and PJ report personal fees and non-financial support from AbbVie and Gilead Sciences, and personal fees from MSD, outside the submitted work. MHE-S is an advisory board member for Perspectum Diagnostics, and reports grants and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences, and non-financial support from AbbVie and Quadri Pharma, outside the submitted work. RF reports grants, personal fees, and non-financial support from Roche and Gilead Sciences, and personal fees and non-financial support from BMS, outside the submitted work. GBG reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. JG-S reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences, and personal fees from MSD, Abbvie, Janssen, and BMS, outside the submitted work. JGer reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, MSD, BMS, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. RG reports grants from New South Wales Ministry of Health and provided project advice regarding viral hepatitis treatment to Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. AHa reports unrestricted grants from AbbVie, MSD, Gilead Sciences, BMS, and Novartis, and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work; he was also on advisory boards for AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and BMS. CH reports personal fees from AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, and MSD, outside the submitted work. JJ reports personal fees and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences and AbbVie, and personal fees from Roche and BMS, outside the submitted work. MK reports grants from Roche, Siemens, Hologic, and Boerhinger Ingleheim, outside the submitted work. JVL reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from Cepheid, outside the submitted work. MMan reports personal fees from Roche, BMS, GlaxoSmithKline, Aevi Genomic Medicine, ENYO Pharma, and CureVac, and grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and Novartis, outside the submitted work. SMau reports personal fees and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences and BMS, outside the submitted work. CM reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and BMS; personal fees from MSD; and grants from Roche, outside the submitted work. BM reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from AbbVie, MSD, BMS, Bayer, Intercept, and Sigma-Tau, during the conduct of the study. FN reports personal fees and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences, during the conduct of the study. AR reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead, and MSD, and personal fees form BMS, Celgene, Janssen, Intercept, and Lupin, outside the submitted work. HWR reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, ENYO Pharma, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, MSD, PRA Health Sciences, Regulus, and Roche; personal fees from Alnylam and R-Pharm; and grants from Replicor, outside the submitted work. LRR reports grants from the Center for Clinical and Translational Science and the Swedish Research Council (Ghana), during the conduct of the study. LRR also reports grants from Gilead Sciences, BTG, Ariad, and Wako, outside the submitted work, and was a consultant and advisory board member for Wako, Medscape, Axis, OncLive, Bayer, Tavec, and Grail. SDR has served as an advisory board member and speaker for Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, and MSD. OS has served as a consultant and on advisory boards for MSD; received research grants from AbbVie, BMS, MSD, Boehringer Ingelheim, R-Pharm, and Hepatera; and served as a speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, MSD, and R-Pharm. JFS-A reports personal fees from AbbVie and grants from Gilead Sciences and Janssen, outside the submitted work. CSa reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences and BMS, outside the submitted work. PS reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, and BMS, and personal fees from Intercept, outside the submitted work. CSt has consulted with and served on advisory boards for Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, and MSD. VSy reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences, personal fees and non-financial support from AbbVie, and personal fees from Janssen, outside the submitted work. KT reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and BMS; personal fees from MSD and Alfa Wasserman; and grants from Janssen, outside the submitted work. AJvdM reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from AbbVie, outside the submitted work. IW reports personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Marcyrl, Mylan, Onxio, and Pharco, outside the submitted work. NW reports personal fees paid to her department from AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences, and MSD, outside the submitted work. VWW reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences, BMS, and MSD, outside the submitted work. M-FY was a speaker or advisory board member for AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences, Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Fujirebio, Biocartis, and MSD, outside the submitted work. SZ reports consultancy and lecture fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and MSD, and consultancy fees from Intercept, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., This study was funded by the John C Martin Foundation through the Polaris Observatory. We thank the Research on Hepatitis group (H28-kansei-ippan-001 and H25-kanen-ippan-010; led by JT), funded by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, for their provision of country-level data for Japan, and Örebro County Council for providing ALF grants (OLL-683801) to A-SD, which allowed collection of country-level data for Sweden.

Background: Evidence is growing that the equilibrium between reactive oxygen species and antioxidants plays a vital role in women’s reproductive health. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate variations in serum antioxidant concentrations across the menstrual cycle and associations between antioxidants and reproductive hormones and anovulation among healthy women. Methods: The BioCycle Study, a prospective cohort, followed 259 women aged 18–44 y for up to 2 menstrual cycles. Serum fat-soluble vitamin and micronutrient (α-tocopherol, γ-tocopherol, retinol, lutein, lycopene, and β-carotene), ascorbic acid, and reproductive hormone concentrations were measured 5–8 times/cycle. We used weighted linear mixed models to assess associations between antioxidants and hormone concentrations, after adjustment for age, race, body mass index, parity, sleep, pain medication use, total energy intake, concurrent hormones, serum cholesterol, F2-isoprostanes, and other antioxidants. Generalized linear models were used to identify associations with anovulation. Results: Serum antioxidant concentrations varied across the menstrual cycle. Retinol and α-tocopherol were associated with higher estradiol [RR: 1.00 pg/mL (95% CI: 0.67, 1.34 pg/mL); RR: 0.02 pg/mL (95% CI: 0.003, 0.03 pg/mL), respectively] and testosterone [RR: 0.61 ng/dL (95% CI: 0.44, 0.78 ng/dL); RR: 0.01 ng/dL (95% CI: 0.001, 0.01 ng/dL), respectively]. Ascorbic acid was associated with higher progesterone (RR: 0.15 ng/mL; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.25 ng/mL) and with lower follicle-stimulating hormone (RR: −0.06 mIU/mL; 95% CI: −0.09, −0.03 mIU/mL). The ratio of α- to γ-tocopherol was associated with an increased risk of anovulation (RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Conclusions: These findings shed new light on the intricate associations between serum antioxidants and endogenous hormones in healthy premenopausal women and support the hypothesis that concentrations of serum vitamins affect steroidogenesis even after adjustment for oxidative stress.

Background/Aims: Around 101,000 individuals are estimated to be viremic for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2014; however, only about 20% have been diagnosed. We aim to assess baseline epidemiology, disease burden, and evaluate strategies to eliminate HCV in KSA. Materials and Methods: The infected population and disease progression were modeled using age- and gender-defined cohorts to track HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. Baseline assumptions and transition probabilities were extracted from the literature. The impacts of two scenarios on HCV-related disease burden were considered through increases in treatment efficacy alone or treatment and diagnosis. Results: In 2030, it is estimated by the base scenario that viremic prevalence will increase to 103,000 cases, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to 470, decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases to 1,300 and 15,400, respectively, and liver-related mortality to 670 deaths. Using high efficacy treatment alone resulted in 2030 projection of 80,700 viremic cases, 350 HCC cases, 480 liver-related deaths, and 850 and 11,500 decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases, respectively. With an aggressive treatment strategy, in 2030 there will be about 1,700 viremic cases, 1 HCC case, about 20 liver-related deaths, and 5 and 130 cases of decompensated and compensated cirrhosis, respectively. Delaying this strategy by one year would result in 360 additional deaths by 2030. Conclusions: HCV in KSA remains constant, and cases of advanced liver disease and mortality continue to rise. Considered increases in treatment efficacy and number treated would have a significantly greater impact than increased treatment efficacy alone. The projected impact will facilitate disease forecasting, resource planning, and strategies for HCV management. Increased screening and diagnosis would likely be required as part of a national strategy.

WOS: 000426979400014, PubMed ID: 28404132, Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of-and expansion on-the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64-103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1.0% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8-1.1) in 2015, corresponding to 71.1 million (62.5-79.4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections., John C Martin Foundation, John C Martin Foundation.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).

Gilead Sciences The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. in addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing. Ctr Dis Anal, Louisville, CO 80027 USA Natl Liver Inst, Menoufia, Egypt JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Frankfurt, Germany Univ Calgary, Liver Unit, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Calgary, AB, Canada Ankara Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Sch Med, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey Hosp Santo Antonio Capuchos, Dept Gastroenterol, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Cent, Lisbon, Portugal Med Univ Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria Univ São Paulo, Sch Med, São Paulo, Brazil Hop Henri Mondor, Serv Hepatogastroenterol, F-94010 Creteil, France Adv Tech Hlth Serv Res TAISS, Madrid, Spain Ege Univ, Izmir, Turkey Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol Infect Dis, Stockholm, Sweden Ankara Univ, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey Univ Leipzig, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany Osped Cantonale, Dept Gastroenterol, Bellinzona, Switzerland Univ Montreal, Dept Med, Liver Unit, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada Fed Univ State Rio de Janeiro, Dept Gastroenterol, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Arud Ctr Addict Med, Zurich, Switzerland Hosp Valle de Hebron, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain Hosp Puerta Hierro, Madrid, Spain Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Hosp Clin, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil Odense Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark Reg Hosp Hovedstaden, Copenhagen, Denmark Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Clin Med, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Univ Plymouth, Peninsula Sch Med & Dent, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England Univ New S Wales, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia Cairo Univ, Cairo, Egypt Orebro Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Orebro, Sweden Univ Orebro, Sch Hlth & Med Sci, SE-70182 Orebro, Sweden Ain Shams Univ, Cairo, Egypt Dokuz Eylul Univ, Izmir, Turkey Karolinska Inst, Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Med Huddinge, Infect Dis Unit, Stockholm, Sweden Exigo Consultores, Alhos Vedros, Portugal Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Gastroenterol, São Paulo, Brazil Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, Brazil Inst Clin & Expt Med, Dept Hepatogastroenterol, Prague, Czech Republic Hosp Carlos III, CIBERehd, Madrid, Spain Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Direccao Geral Saude, Lisbon, Portugal Univ Estadual Campinas, Disciplina Doencas Infecciosas, Dept Clin Med, Grp Estudo Hepatites,Fac Ciencias Med,UNICAMP, São Paulo, Brazil Wilhelminenspital Stadt Wien, Dept Internal Med 4, Vienna, Austria Univ São Paulo, Sch Med, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, São Paulo, Brazil Med Univ Vienna, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Internal Med 3, Vienna, Austria Masaryk Univ, Univ Hosp Brno, Clin Infect Dis, Brno, Czech Republic Univ Manitoba, Dept Internal Med, Sect Hepatol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada Hlth Sci Ctr, Viral Hepatitis Invest Unit, Winnipeg, MB, Canada European Liver Patients Assoc, St Truiden, Belgium Istanbul Univ, Istanbul, Turkey Univ British Columbia, British Columbia Ctr Dis Control, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada Aalborg Univ Hosp, Dept Med Gastroenterol, Aalborg, Denmark Aalborg Univ Hosp, Sect Mol Diagnost, Aalborg, Denmark Katholieke Univ Leuven, Univ Hosp Leuven, Louvain, Belgium Hosp Santa Maria, Dept Gastroenterol, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Norte, Lisbon, Portugal Univ Western Ontario, Div Gastroenterol, London, ON, Canada Univ Dusseldorf, Dusseldorf, Germany Univ Libre Brussels, Erasme Univ Hosp, Brussels, Belgium Univ Hosp, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Geneva, Switzerland Univ Hosp, Div Clin Pathol, Geneva, Switzerland Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Natl Reference Lab Hepatitis, Prague, Czech Republic Univ Southhampton, Southampton, England Dalhousie Univ & Hepatol Serv, Capital Dist Hlth Author, Queen Elizabeth II Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Med, Halifax, NS, Canada Dalhousie Univ & Hepatol Serv, Capital Dist Hlth Author, Queen Elizabeth II Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Surg, Halifax, NS, Canada Univ British Columbia, Dept Gastroenterol, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada Assembleia Republ, Lisbon, Portugal Alfred Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Monash Univ, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia UCL, Div Med, UCL Inst Liver & Digest Hlth, London, England Hop Henri Mondor, Dept Sante Publ, F-94010 Creteil, France Nottingham Univ Hosp NHS Trust, Nottingham, England Biomed Res Unit, Nottingham, England Ctr Hosp Porto, Dept Infect Dis, Oporto, Portugal Cantonal Hosp St Gallen, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, St Gallen, Switzerland Univ Toronto, Toronto Gen Hosp, Univ Hlth Network, Toronto, ON M5G 1L7, Canada Egyptian Liver Res Inst & Hosp, Dakahliah, Egypt Monash Hlth, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Catholic Univ Louvain, Clin Univ St Luc, Brussels, Belgium Med Univ Graz, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Internal Med, Graz, Austria St Vincents Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Charles Univ Prague, Dept Internal Med, Fac Med 1, Prague, Czech Republic Cent Mil Hosp, Prague, Czech Republic Univ Antwerp, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium Deutsch Leberhilfe eV, Cologne, Germany Ghent Univ Hosp, Ghent, Belgium Univ Ghent, Belgium Hasselt Univ, Dept Hlth Econ & Patient Safety, Diepenbeek, Belgium Hannover Med Sch, Dept Gastroenterol Hepatol & Endocrinol, Hannover, Germany Copenhagen Univ Hosp, Hvidovre, Denmark Univ New S Wales, St George Hosp Clin Sch Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia Univ New S Wales, Sch Med Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia Univ Zurich Hosp, Swiss HPB Hepatopancreatobiliary Ctr, CH-8091 Zurich, Switzerland Univ Zurich Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, CH-8091 Zurich, Switzerland Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Gastroenterol, São Paulo, Brazil Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, Brazil Web of Science