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Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables. Politik, Administration und Wirtschaft benötigen für ihre Entscheidungen mittelfristige Projektionen über die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen auf den Märkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft. Die EU-Kommission legt solche Projektionen für die EU als Ganzes im Dezember jedes Jahres vor. Diese Projektionen und ihre Annahmen bezüglich politischer Maßnahmen und makroökonomischer Entwicklungen werden mit Hilfe des partiellen Modellsystems AGMEMOD auf die einzelnen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten mit der Ausnahme von Luxemburg, das mit Belgien regional zusammengefasst wird, herunter gebrochen. Das Working Paper beschreibt kurz den Ansatz, wie die Projektionen für die Mitgliedsstaaten erstellt werden. Die Projektionen umfassen die Märkte für wichtige Agrarprodukte, und zwar insbesondere für Getreide und Ölsaaten (Raps- und Sonnenblumensaat), für Vieh (Rinder, Schweine, Ziegen und Schafe), Fleisch (Rind-, Schweine- und Geflügelfleisch), Milch und Milchprodukte (Trinkmilch, Butter, Käse, Magermilchpulver, Vollmilch und teilentrahmtes Milchpulver) und decken Anbauflächen, Tierbestände, Produktion, Handel und Verwendung sowie Preise ab. Die einzelnen Projektionsergebnisse werden in tabellarischer Form aufbereitet dargestellt.

This paper investigates potential impacts on milk production of Dutch dairy farms if feed prices increase, milk prices decrease and milk quotas are abolished. A quadratic cost function is estimated using panel data on individual dairy farms of the Dutch FADN. Marginal costs and revenues are evaluated to show the heterogeneous farm-level impact of changing prices on potential production developments. The main finding is that potential increases in milk production when quota are abolished, are offset by a decreasing marginal revenue due to lower milk prices, and increasing marginal costs due to higher feed prices.

EU farmers face increasing requests to comply with legal as well as private agribusiness and retail standards. Both requests potentially raise farmer’s administrative burden. This paper discusses the potential synergies between cross-compliance and third-party certification schemes. In selected aspects cross-compliance and several certification schemes ask similar measures. However, both regulatory approaches differ considerably in other areas. The heterogeneous nature of the various certification schemes in place prevent a general conclusion. As a tendency systemic standards like organic agriculture provide the largest overlap with cross-compliance. Certificates of origin, on the opposite side, have no relation with cross-compliance.

The aim of this paper is to gain better insights in the implications of some of the most important economic assumptions and empirical choices made in partial equilibrium models focusing on dairy. Three partial equilibrium models are considered: the AGricultural Member states MODeling (AGMEMOD) model, the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model, and the European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM). This paper analyses how quota rent and supply elasticity estimates, as they are used in these models affect milk output and price projections. Sensitivity analysis is also considered in order to take into account uncertainty in quota rent and supply elasticity estimates. Taking into account the considered uncertainty our best estimate is in case of abolishing the quota the EU’s aggregate milk production will expand, with the increase being somewhere in the range between 5 and 15%. Das Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, am Beispiel des Milchmarkts die Auswirkungen wichtiger ökonomischer Annahmen in partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodellen zu untersuchen. Wir beziehen drei Modelle in die Analyse ein: das Agricultural Member states MODeling (AGMEMOD)-Modell, das Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM)-Modell sowie das European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM). Untersucht wird der Einfluss von Annahmen über die Quotenrenten und die Angebotselastizitäten, wie sie in diesen Modellen zwecks Projektion der Milchmenge und des Milchpreises getroffen werden. Der Unsicherheit bei der Schätzung von Quotenrenten und Angebotselastizität wird durch Sensititätsanalysen Rechnung getragen. Unter Berücksichtigung der bestehenden Unsicherheit lautet die beste Schätzung für den Fall der Abschaffung der Milchquote, dass die Milcherzeugung in der EU in einem Umfang von 5 bis 15 % ausgedehnt werden wird.

In the so-called Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 'Health Check' the European Commission has recently proposed gradual transitional measures to allow a 'soft landing' of the milk sector to quota expiry. The aim of this paper is to support policy makers to get better insights in the implications of some of the most important economic assumptions and empirical choices made in partial equilibrium models focusing on dairy. Three partial equilibrium models are considered: the Agricultural Member states MODeling (AGMEMOD) model, the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model, and the European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM). The paper analyzes how the most important economic supply components, as they are part of the three key dairy models, affect milk production projections. A main conclusion is that the evaluation of the contribution of a study should not be based on one single characteristic (such as quota rents, supply responses). One isolated characteristic is not able to explain finally obtained model outcomes. Quota rents, supply responses, shifters and the demand side have to be integrated with each other.

This paper develops a disequilibrium model of land prices in the Netherlands. It shows that the behaviour of traded quantities and prices of Dutch land have some resemblance with a disequilibrium land market model developed by Søgaard. An error correction model based on Søgaard’s model generates significant results with GDP and the real interest rate as explanatory variables, but regrettably farm income nor government demand for land generate significant results. If the model is correct, bubbles are characteristic for the Dutch land market, and this suggests that there is an opportunity for Dutch government to improve on the timing of buying land for nature policy.

This paper sets out to analyse the impact of milk quotas had on the dairy farm structure of the Netherlands. In addition projections on the likely farm structure under different milk quota scenarios are explored. Moreover mobility indicators characterizing structural change are developed and calculated. A Markov probability model is estimated relying on a generalized cross entropy approach. The introduction of milk quotas as of April 1, 1984 froze the dairy farm structural adjustment, at least initially. However, later on mobility started to increase, which is likely to reflect the quota tradability and lease possibilities. Moreover there is evidence that the milk quota regime has increased concentration of dairy production among farms with 50-69 cows. If after quota abolition the dairy farm structural dynamics would be the same as in the 1972-83 period, then quota abolition in 2015 will lead to a substantial increase in the number of farms in 2022 as compared to the current status quo.

The scattering of nature areas in the Netherlands and the increased demand for nature lead to a governmental project in 1990 to complete a network of nature favouring areas, the ecological main structure, in 2018. The financial and economic costs and benefits of this project were analysed. Targets for purchasing of agricultural land and conversion into nature were adjusted several times as the land price doubled between 1995 and 2000. The purchasing rate still has to double, which will probably drive up the land price even further. The alternative is long-term contracts with farmers or private landowners for nature conservation.

Beef and pig production are important sectors affected by the cross-compliance policy. Full compliance with SMRs and GAECs generates costs and benefits which may have an impact on the competitiveness of these sectors on the world market. Compliance with the Nitrate Directive, animal identification and registration requirements and animal welfare standards can give rise to non-negligible cost of production increases at individual farm level and at sector level. Additional costs can be relevant either due to a low degree of compliance or by significant adjustments costs at farm level. Full compliance generates a level playing field between Member States of the EU, as some countries have to face higher additional costs than others, which are be attributed to differences in degree of compliance. This paper first presents evidence of additional costs at individual farm level due to full compliance. Then for beef and pork a methodology has been developed in order to calculate sector cost impacts following an upcsaling procedure for each of the analysed directives. Simulations with the GTAP model have enabled an assessment of the trade effect of compliance with standards and the impact on the external competitiveness of the EU beef and pork production. In some policy fields covered by cross-compliance important trade partners such as Canada, USA and New Zealand have implemented policies similar to the EU. In these three countries comparable standards to those in the EU were identified and the level and cost of compliance have been assessed. The pig sector will be affected most by a unilateral compliance with standards in the EU, in particular as the Nitrate Directive is concerned. Within the EU pig production costs will rise by 0.545 %. Imports may increase by 4% and exports may fall by 3%. However full application of the Clean Water Act in the US, which contains similar obligations to the Nitrate Directive, generates a significant sector cost increase (1,08%) which may counterbalance the loss of competitiveness of EU pork production towards the US. Compliance with the mandatory animal welfare standards has only minor cost implications and has negligible effects on external competitiveness of the EU both because of a high degree of compliance and relatively low adjustment costs at farm level. Finally, in many EU member states the degree of compliance of beef farms with the animal registration and identification directives is below 100%. Additional costs for full compliance within the EU have been estimated at 0.455%, which may cause an increase of beef imports of 2.21% and a decline of exports of –2.12%. This loss in competitiveness of the EU will further favour the position of Brazil on the world beef market. At the other hand significant benefits are obtained in food security of EU beef.

With the milk quota announced to be abolished in the future, the dairy sector is going to face a significant policy regime shift. This paper sets out to analyze the impact of milk quotas on the dairy farm structure of two important milk producing member states : Germany and the Netherlands. Based on proper behavioral assumptions, non stationary Markov chain models are specified and estimated using a generalized cross entropy procedure, which takes into account both sample and prior information. Moreover four mobility indicators characterizing structural change are developed and calculated. Structural change in the dairy sector as measured by the mobility measures is faster in West Germany than in the Netherlands. However, in the transition region East Germany structural change outpaces that of the traditional German and Dutch dairy sectors by a factor two or more. The introduction of milk quotas as of April 1, 1984 reduced overall farm mobility for the Netherlands, but increased mobility in West Germany. However, in both cases the milk quotas lead to an increase in upward mobility.

The New Member States did not yet have to implement the full cross-compliance package. Currently the GEAC requirements in the conditionality clause for the direct payments. The SMRs will become part of it starting from 2009. This paper looks into the Polish case and looks whether timely implementation is feasible. Several factors are mentioned, indicating that this will be a hard task. The problems with implementation explain why the new member states are advocating a gradual phasing in of the SMRs.

The new EU Animal Health Strategy suggests a shift in emphasis away from control towards prevention and surveillance activities for the management of threats to animal health. The optimal combination of these actions will differ among diseases and depend on largely unknown and uncertain costs and benefits. This paper reports an empirical investigation of this issue for the case of Avian Influenza. The results suggest that the optimal combination of actions will be dependent on the objective of the decision maker and that conflict exists between an optimal strategy which minimises costs to the government and one which maximises producer profits or minimises negative effects on human health. From the perspective of minimising the effects on human health, prevention appears preferable to cure but the case is less clear for other objectives.

The introduction of cross-compliance mechanism in the European Union with its 2003 CAP-reform might affect the costs of production and thus competitiveness of the EU. Little evidence is available to asses the costs of compliance with regulations and it implication for trade. In this study a farm level competitiveness analysis of the impacts of the Nitrate Directive and the Identification & registration Directive focuses on the dairy sector in Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and UK (within EU), and the US and New Zealand (outside EU). The findings from this study are integrated into a trade analysis which assesses the impact of compliance costs on competitiveness of the various trading nations in global trade. Representative farm studies were used as a basis for the cost increase calculations. Best-estimates of compliance are used from the existing literature and expert judgements. The negative impact of these measures (for nitrates, and animal identification and registration) on EU imports and exports are less than 3 percent. If a smaller increase in compliance takes place, these already relatively small trade impacts will be further diminished. When the standards for nitrate pollution taken by the US and New Zealand are taken into account along with full compliance assumption in all countries analysed, this would only slightly improve the EU exports. The trade impacts obtained when no changes are assumed to happen in key competitor countries can thus be argued as providing the upper bound of the likely trade impacts.

Over fifteen years have elapsed since the transition from the centrally planned economic system started in the early 1990’s. During this time agricultural and rural areas of Central and Eastern Europe have undergone profound structural changes with wide variations in the degree of transformation and in the rate of success in creating a competitive market and private ownership based food and agricultural system. By becoming member of the European Union the "transition" in its traditional interpretation has been concluded in ten of the Central East European countries. The transition to market based agriculture, however, is far from completion in Southern and Eastern Europe and especially in the CIS countries. International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) and European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) in collaboration with the Corvinus University of Budapest and with a number of other institutions in Hungary organized an inter-conference seminar on the subject of agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The major objective of the seminar was to discuss and draw conclusions on the role of agricultural policy in the transition process in the light of actual progress and current situation in Central and East European countries and in formal Soviet States. In addition the contribution of agricultural economics – both from the West and from the East – as a discipline and a profession to the transition process in agriculture were discussed. A specific objective was to identify priorities and means to strengthen the agricultural economics profession in the transition countries and determine research and educational priorities for the future. The seminar was attended by 118 participants representing 26 countries from Europe, North America and Asia. The Seminar was the largest professional meeting organized by the two associations in 2007. Over 110 abstracts were submitted and evaluated by the International Program Committee. In the two day program of the meeting, 8 presentations were made during the 3 plenary sessions, 66 papers were presented in the 15 contributed paper sessions in 8 subject categories. In addition there were 15 posters discussed in the poster session and the findings of a World Bank study on distortions of agricultural incentives in the region was the subject of a pre-conference workshop. Plenary speakers included Ulrich Koester, Johan Swinnen, Jerzy Wilkin, Zvi Lerman, Eugenia Serova and József Popp-Gábor Udovecz. At the end of the seminar David Colman, President of IAAE gave a global assessment of the status of agricultural economics discipline and profession, while Csaba Csáki, former President of IAAE made summary comments on major issues discussed during the seminar. This volume includes the plenary and contributed papers presented at the seminar and submitted for publications by the authors as well as the abstracts of the poster papers discussed. The seminar was supported and sponsored by a number of organizations and persons. All of their contributions have to be greatly acknowledged. First the two international organizations IAAE and EAAE have to be mentioned, which provided overall organizational framework and logistical support. The IAAE provided in addition a generous grant to support the participation of young agricultural economists from Central and Eastern Europe on the seminar. On the Hungarian side the Corvinus University of Budapest, the Szent István University of Gödöllő, the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, the Hungarian Agricultural Economics Association, the Hungarian Association of Agricultural Sciences and the Hungarian Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development were the major material and organizational supporters. The International Program committee was chaired by David Colman and Csaba Csáki and included Ulrich Koester, Joe Swinnen, Eugenia Serova and Jerzy Wilkin. The local Organizing committee was chaired by Csaba Forgács and István Szűcs and included Zoltán Lakner, András Nábrádi, József Popp, József Tóth, Gábor Udovecz, László Vajda, László Villányi, Krisztina Fodor, Attila Jámbor and Tamás Mizik. Finally IAMO, Halle facilitated the publication of this proceedings.

Current European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been moving from production support subsidies to direct decoupled income support. The emergence in policy making of the concept of multifunctional agriculture leads to the recognition that a farmer produces more than food: he produces jointly both commodity and non-commodity goods. Environmental contracts were developed in order to encourage the provision of non-commodity goods such as landscape or biodiversity. Next to these contracts, other activities as for example recreation can be observed. They are the result of farm diversification. The role of location in farmers’ decision making to diversify is pointed out in literature but geographical information is generally reduced to the location within a political delimitation unit the empirical work. Objective of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, it addresses the role of location, in term of site specific natural conditions as well as neighbouring emerging dynamics in farmer’s decision making to diversify. Attention is paid to number of activities as well as the specific types of activities, notably green services, daily recreation and other farm-linked services. Secondly, this paper introduces income from agriculture explicitly allowing testing short term price sensitivity. It was found that attractive landscape is a driver for diversification as these landscape offer more opportunities. Furthermore, diversification is responsive to price. Thirdly, role of density of past multifunctional activities in the neighborhood influences farm diversification : multifunctional activities create an externality effects as new activities emerge next to already existing ones. This dynamic may lead to the emergence of ‘multifunctional hotspots’ in landscape.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of the dairy farm structure of Poland during the post-socialist period. First the paper focuses on how the farm structure has changed over time and what path it is likely to follow in the coming decade. Second, it is tested whether the evolution of farm size is explained by non-stationary effects. Finally, several statistical indicators are computed on farm mobility and on which farms are likely to survive. An instrumental variable generalised cross entropy Markov chain approach which incorporates prior information is applied for estimation. Prior information included general and plausible information on farm mobility and structural adjustments based on independent literature. The projections show that dairy farm numbers will continue to decline, although accompanied by an increase in the number of medium-sized and large farms. Subsistence dairy farms are expected to slowly leave the sector in the coming decade.

Although the family farm remains the dominant organisational form for farms there are changes in the legal mode of organisation. Applying the new institutional economics and economic organisation theory the different organisation modes are explained, mainly in terms of control and income rights. Important factors are (limited) liability, risk-bearing costs, transaction costs, and residual control and income rights. In an empirical follow-up, based on a sample among 3100 farmers in the Netherlands, the impact of farmers' attitudes, farm advisory network, and structural variables on organisation choice are analysed. Especially the financial advisors appear to play a significant role in the choice of organisation mode. Other factors are age, branche (horticulture, factory farming), and farm size.

This paper analyses the dynamics in the farm size distribution for The Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary. A (non-)stationary Markov model approach is used. The transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. The models are estimated using an information theoretical approach, including non-sample (prior) information. The models can be used to simulate the impact of alternative dairy policies on the dairy sector structure. For all countries there is an autonomous decline in farm numbers over time (implying increase in average farm size). This trend continues irrespective of the EU dairy policy type. For both Hungary and Poland the role of the subsistence sector is expected to substantially decrease over time.

This paper analyzes the sources of growth of Dutch agriculture (arable, meat, and dairy sectors). Because the time series data (1950-1997) are non-stationary and not cointegrated, it is argued that a model estimated in first differences should be used. Estimated price elasticities turn out to be very inelastic, both in the short-run and the long-run. The direct distortionary effect of price support has therefore been rather limited. However, price support has an important indirect effect by improving the sectors investment possibilities and therewith the capital stock. Public R&D expenditure mainly affected agriculture by contributing to yield improvement therewith favoring intensification of production.

We developed the AGRIPOL game as a tool for teaching agricultural policy to economic and non-economic students. AGRIPOL consists of a world with 7 different countries, each one represented by a small group of students. The students have to maximize their country's social welfare by choosing an optimal set of policy instruments. By doing this students learn in an interesting and hands-on way to understand the workings of agricultural policy instruments, the interrelatedness between countries (policy impact spill-overs) and the role of political weights in the policy formation process. A WTO negotiation round is included to let students experience the difficulties and benefits of cooperation.

The EU dairy sector is facing a period of significant changes that are due to three major decisions: the EU enlargement, the Luxembourg reform and on-going WTO negotiations. To evaluate the impact of such changes we developed a model of the EU and world dairy industry. The model is composed of two modules that interact: a milk and beef supply module and a dairy industry module. In this paper we present the model and focus on elements that are crucial for a better understanding of the impact of reforms: quota rents in the EU, evolution of production in the new member states and trade policy.

The European farm model is aimed at stimulating and facilitating multifunctional agriculture. This paper presents the results of research into the factors determining the adoption of multifunctional activities. In the paper survey results from 495 farms, spread all over the Netherlands, were used. Binomial logit models were estimated for multifunctional activities in general and four specific activities. Trust in the government is an important explaining factor for participation in nature conservation and recreation, however, less important for services and selling products. Location of the farm is important for nature conservation, services, and recreation. Attitude variables are particularly important for participation in nature conservation and day and stay recreation.

This paper investigates the growth in the number of organic producers in the Netherlands. Using Bayesian techniques a logistic growth model explaining the share of organic farms is estimated. Prior information is used to estimate and compare three different models on the future of organic farming.

The Agenda 2000 and the Mid-Term Review introduced a complex combination of policy changes for beef and dairy. It is not clear to what extent the package will influence production decisions. This study proposes a simple method for incorporating the effect of direct payments into the analysis of cow herd response. Effective support prices are derived by adjusting the Agenda 2000 reductions in dairy and beef support prices to reflect the compensation given to farmers in terms of direct payments and premiums. Following the Mid-Term Review different assumptions are made with respect to the extent to which these payments are, or are perceived as being coupled to production. The effective prices obtained for Germany are used in a simulation model to assess the impact of the latest agricultural policy reforms on German milk and beef producers.

This paper analyses the impact of the dairy quota scheme on the size distribution of the Dutch dairy industry. A non-stationary Markov model approach is use, where the transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. Using an information theoretical approach, a model is estimated for The Netherlands and used to simulate the impacts of alternative EU dairy policies. Several results emerged: a) There is an autonomous over time decline in farm numbers (implying increase in farm size). b) The dairy quota regime positively influences 'small' and 'medium' farm sizes; c) Abolition of the dairy quota will negatively affect the total number of active farms and favours further increase of farm scale. d) Targeting support according to needs increases the number of active dairy farms as compared with the status quo.