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Los efectos económicos y sociales que la pandemia del COVID-19 y las medidas asociadas para hacerle frente están teniendo en América Latina pueden derivar en serias consecuencias de largo plazo que repercutirían en el logro de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). En este artículo, resultado de la colaboración de economistas ambientales de ocho países de la región, discutimos los posibles efectos de la pandemia en la contaminación del aire, la deforestación y otros aspectos ambientales relevantes relacionados con los ODS. Además de presentar un recuento de algunos de los efectos iniciales de la crisis sanitaria en el medio ambiente, discutimos efectos potenciales en términos de regulaciones ambientales e intervenciones de política pública. Por último, presentamos una agenda sobre nuevos temas de investigación que surgen a raíz de la pandemia o que han cobrado mayor importancia como consecuencia de esta, incluyendo los impactos sobre el logro de los ODS.

Resumo: Este estudo verifica a relação entre a intensidade do uso de agrotóxicos e o número de intoxicações nos estabelecimentos agropecuários do Brasil. A partir dos dados do Censo Agropecuário 2006, utilizou-se do Propensity Score Generalizado (PSG) para tornar os municípios com diferentes intensidades do uso de agrotóxicos comparáveis. Os resultados revelam que a proporção de estabelecimentos com pessoas intoxicadas aumenta à medida que se intensifica o uso de pesticidas, demonstrando efeito negativo e estatisticamente significativo dos agrotóxicos sobre a saúde. Nesse contexto, os serviços de assistência técnica e extensão rural (ATER), por meio do auxílio aos agricultores em relação ao uso e manuseio adequados de pesticidas e do incentivo à adoção de alternativas sustentáveis de manejo de pragas, tornam-se essenciais para mitigação dos riscos à saúde associados ao uso de agrotóxicos. Em conjunto com a ampliação dos serviços de ATER, destaca-se a importância do desenvolvimento de produtos mais eficientes e menos nocivos à saúde e ao meio ambiente. Abstract: This study verifies the relationship between the intensity of the use of pesticides and the number of intoxications in agricultural establishments in Brazil. Based on data from the 2006 Agricultural Census, the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) was used to make municipalities with different intensities in the use of pesticides comparable. The results show that the proportion of establishments with intoxicated people increases as the use of pesticides intensifies, showing a negative and statistically significant effect of pesticides on health. In this context, ATER services, by helping farmers concerning the proper use and handling of pesticides and the adoption of sustainable alternatives for pest management, become essential to mitigate the health risks associated with the use of pesticides. Along with the expansion of ATER services, the importance of developing more efficient products that are less harmful to health and the environment is highlighted.

Resumo: Tem-se por objetivo investigar se a tendência de alta no preço do petróleo e as políticas públicas regulatória e fiscal afetam a inovação no setor de biodiesel. Também, se há influência da proporção do gasto do governo em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (P&D). A existência de uma relação entre o preço relativo do petróleo e a inovação no biodiesel é fundamentada na teoria da inovação induzida, proposta por Hicks (1932) e formalizada por Ahmad (1966). Para mensurar a inovação, empregam-se dados de patentes em biodiesel depositadas (por residentes) no Brasil, Estados Unidos, Alemanha, França, Espanha, Reino Unido, Áustria e República Checa de 2000 a 2011. Aplica-se o estimador de Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM2) no modelo de Poisson em painel de Efeito Fixo. Os resultados indicam que o preço do petróleo e a existência de política regulatória e fiscal são fatores demand-pull, que estimulam a inovação no biodiesel por aumentar sua demanda e a expectativa de retorno. Já o investimento governamental em P&D constitui um fator technology-push, que afeta a inovação pelo lado da oferta, na medida que aumenta a capacidade tecnológica da qual o setor de biodiesel pode se beneficiar. Abstract: The objective of this article is to investigate whether market factors, especially the upward trend in oil price, and whether regulatory and fiscal public policies positively affect innovation in the biodiesel sector. Also, we intend to investigate whether the proportion of government spending on Research and Development (R&D) has a positive influence on biodiesel innovation. The relation between the relative oil price and innovation in biodiesel is based on the induced innovation theory proposed by Hicks (1932) and formalized by Ahmad (1966). Deposited patents by the resident were used to measure innovation in Brazil, United States, Germany, France, Spain, United Kingdom, Austria, and the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2011. They are the main producer countries. The Generalized Moments Method (GMM) estimator is applied to the Poisson model in a Fixed Effect panel. It is proper for count data and for taking into account the endogeneity. The results indicate that the oil price and public policies are demand-pull factors that stimulate innovation in biodiesel by increasing its demand and expected return. On the supply side, government investment in R&D is a technology-push factor because it increases the technological capacity that benefits the biodiesel sector.

Degraded pasture is a major liability in Brazilian agriculture, but restoration and recovery efforts could turn this area into a new frontier to both agricultural yield expansion and forest restoration. Currently, rural properties with larger degraded pasture areas are associated with higher levels of technical inefficiency in Brazil. The recovery of 12 million ha of degraded pastures could generate an additional production of 17.7 million bovines while reducing the need for new agricultural land. Regional identification of degraded pastures would facilitate the targeting of agricultural extension and advisory services and rural credit efforts aimed at fostering pasture recovery. Since only 1% of Brazilian municipalities contain 25% of degraded pastures, focusing pasture recovery efforts on this small group of municipalities could generate considerable benefits. More efficient allocation of degraded and native pastures for meat production and forest restoration could provide land enough to fully comply with its Forest Code requirements, while adding 9 million heads to the cattle inventory. Degraded pasture recovery and restoration is a win–win strategy that could boost livestock husbandry and avoid deforestation in Brazil and has to be the priority strategy of agribusiness sector.

We analyze a policy that substantially expanded the supply of primary care physicians in Brazil. The program increased doctor visits across all age groups and led to greater utilization of doctors for prenatal care. However, these physicians replaced nurse visits for prenatal care without increasing the overall number of visits women receive. We find no evidence of gains in widely used metrics of infant health, including birth weight, gestation, and infant mortality. Together, these findings provide suggestive evidence that physicians and nurses may be good substitutes in the production function of infant health. (JEL I11, I12, I18, J13, J16, J44, O15)

This study proposes a novel supply-side mechanism driving economic structural transformation: grid electrification. Increasing electricity availability affects the reallocation of inputs to more productive activities through generating higher returns and lowering entry costs in sectors with greater infrastructure intensity. The results of modeling and econometric analysis based on Brazil's historical data over the period 1970-2006 confirm that the manufacturing sector benefits the most in these two dimensions, followed by services and agriculture. The expansion of electricity infrastructure explains about 17 percent of this process and 32 percent of the observed increase in GDP per capita. Simulations of a multisector neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous firms help assessing the effectiveness of different electrification policies.

The presence of long-term contracts indexed to oil prices is a key feature of the evolution of the European natural gas industry. During the 2000's, the European Commission (EC) promoted reforms to establish a single and integrated natural gas market, leading to the development of short-term regional markets based on hubs. This paper tests the hypothesis that asymmetric price responses in the continental European hubs derive from transaction costs. By applying linear and nonlinear error correction models, it assesses the price transmission dynamics and the degree of integration between the German, the Belgium and the Dutch spot markets. The models identified cointegration relations, price asymmetries and transaction costs in these markets. Results show a high degree of integration across regions, with prices converging rapidly to their long-run equilibrium. However, asymmetric price adjustments reveal the presence of transaction costs in the German regional hub.

This paper investigates the relationship between farm size and land use efficiency in the Brazilian Amazon. Based on data from the 2006 Brazilian Agricultural Census, we estimated a stochastic production frontier model which allowed us to quantify the excessive use of agricultural land. Our results suggest that there is plenty of room for land use intensification, which would allow agricultural expansion without further deforestation pressures. We also observed a “U-shaped” relationship between farm size and land use efficiency. However, the turning point of the relationship is far above the typical size of agricultural establishments in the Brazilian Amazon as land use efficiency reached its minimum level at approximately 8,000 ha. For practical purposes, our estimates are in line with previous results that found a negative relationship between farm size and land use efficiency. This means that the current process of land concentration observed in the region would result in increased land use inefficiency.

This paper aims at assessing the impacts of ENSO events on the Brazilian agricultural production. The analysis is focused in the Northeast and South regions, the most vulnerable to ENSO effects in Brazil. We adopt a three-stage approach. First, we specify a spline regression model relating sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Pacific to weather conditions in Brazilian municipalities. Then, we specify a second group of regressions aimed at assessing how temperature and precipitation in Brazilian municipalities determine crop yields. Finally, with the estimated coefficients provided by the regressions of the early stages, we conduct simulation exercises to evaluate the impacts of ENSO on crop yields. Simulation results show that corn and bean production are quite more vulnerable to El Nino effects in the Northeast region, with productivity losses reaching 50%. The critical impact on corn and bean has important socioeconomic consequences, since these crops are mainly produced by household farmers. We also found that the impact of La Nina in the South region is quite significant for all the crops.

This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers' vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre o bem-estar relacionado à saúde no Brasil, por meio de equações estimadas para dados em painel e de projeções climáticas. Os resultados indicam que as mudanças climáticas afetam principalmente a mortalidade de crianças e mulheres. A análise procurou também incorporar aos custos de bem-estar o gasto decorrente do consumo adicional de energia para manutenção do conforto térmico e da redução de riscos à saúde. O aumento do consumo residencial anual de energia com as mudanças climáticas foi estimado em aproximadamente 6%. Os resultados sugerem que a perda de bem-estar relacionada à saúde poderá chegar a 4,7% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Climate change impacts on health-related welfare in Brazil :: This study aimed at assessing the health-related welfare impacts of climate change in Brazil. By analyzing a panel of Brazilian municipalities, we found that climate change affects mostly children and women mortality rates. Welfare cost estimates also incorporate additional energy-related expenditures aimed to maintain thermal comfort and to preserve individuals’ health. Adaptation to new climate conditions may increase annual residential energy consumption by around 6%. Our results suggest that health-related welfare impacts could reach 4.7% of Brazilian GDP.

We present a framework for incorporating weather uncertainty into electricity demand forecasting when weather patterns cannot be assumed to be stable, such as in climate change scenarios. This is done by first calibrating an econometric model for electricity demand on historical data, and subsequently applying the model to a large number of simulated weather paths, together with projections for the remaining determinants. Simulated weather paths are generated based on output from a global circulation model, using a method that preserves the trend and annual seasonality of the first and second moments, as well as the spatial and serial correlations. The application of the framework is demonstrated by creating long-term, probabilistic electricity demand forecasts for Brazil for the period 2016–2100 that incorporates weather uncertainty for three climate change scenarios. All three scenarios indicate steady growth in annual average electricity demand until reaching a peak of approximately 1071–1200 TWh in 2060, then subsequently a decline, largely reflecting the trajectory of the population projections. The weather uncertainty in all scenarios is significant, with up to 400 TWh separating the 10th and the 90th percentiles, or approximately ±17% relative to the mean.

Resumo Este estudo buscou verificar como as mudanças climáticas podem afetar a proliferação das leishmanioses no Brasil, em três períodos, 2010-2039, 2040-2079 e 2080-2100 e dois cenários de mudanças climáticas. Realizou-se uma estimação da relação entre temperatura, precipitação e números de internações por leishmaniose e, posteriormente, a equação estimada foi utilizada para prever o impacto da mudança climática na proliferação da doença no Brasil até o fim do século XXI. Os resultados encontrados indicam que a precipitação possui forte relação com a incidência de leishmaniose e as projeções indicam que haverá uma elevação, para o final do século, da quantidade anual de internações por essa doença, em cerca de 15%, em relação a 1992-2002 (cenário base). Em termos regionais, as projeções indicam crescimento em todas as regiões, com exceção do Centro-Oeste. No Sul do país haverá o maior crescimento relativo no número de internações anuais, ao passo que no Nordeste haverá o maior aumento absoluto. No geral, verifica-se que a leishmaniose aumentará sua incidência no país com a mudança climática. Abstract This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

This paper aims at assessing the determinants of Amazon deforestation, emphasizing the role played by off-farm income. Initially an economic model is provided which relates off-farm income to deforestation patterns. Subsequently, empirical implications are tested using data from the 2006 Brazilian Agricultural Census. Estimation results suggest that higher off-farm incomes are associated with reduced deforestation rates. In fact, higher off-farm incomes might increase the opportunity cost associated with agricultural activities. The latter option becomes less attractive and farmers dedicate less time to farm activities, thereby reducing deforestation pressure. Results also show that smallholders respond less to the increase in the returns from off-farm activities when compared to largeholders, which matches our hypothesis of labor market imperfections regarding off-farm activities.

Various conservation initiatives have been implemented in developing countries with increasing involvement on the part of local governments. A concern in entrusting decisions to local governments is that the effectiveness of the conservation instrument can be threatened by interactions among these local governments. We examine this concern with respect to an ecological fiscal transfer mechanism, the ICMS-Ecológico, implemented in Brazil in the early 1990's in order to reduce biodiversity loss. The mechanism enables states to reward municipalities for the creation and management of protected areas. We describe this mechanism, present a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the potential sources and consequences of interactions among local governments on the effectiveness of a decentralized mechanism aimed at promoting the creation of protected areas, and propose an empirical application using a Bayesian spatial Tobit model. Our empirical investigation on the creation of protected areas in the state of Paraná between 2000 and 2010 reveals strategic substitutability in municipalities' conservation decisions. This finding also leads us to discuss the issue of identification of a negative spatial lag coefficient when there is a positive spatial error correlation.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil. Temperature and precipitation projections for the 2010-2099 periods were employed under a number of different climate scenarios according the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that irrigation adoption will be affected by climate change. Given current conditions, irrigation has generally been adopted in Brazil to cope with reduced precipitation and temperature variations. The estimated irrigation probabilities in the future scenarios were quite different across Brazilian regions. The main explanation for this pattern is the distinct climatic conditions and production structures. Considering future climate change, over the next 30 years (2010 to 2039), the irrigation probability is expected to increase in all Brazilian regions. However, this trend is reversed in the long run. O principal objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a utilização de irrigação no Brasil. Foram utilizadas projeções de temperatura e precipitação para o período de 2010 a 2099, sob diferentes cenários climáticos, conforme o 4º relatório do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas. Os resultados confirmaram que a decisão de irrigar será afetada pelas mudanças climáticas. Dadas as condições atuais, a irrigação tem sido adotada no Brasil mais como resposta à redução da precipitação do que às variações de temperatura. As probabilidades de irrigação estimadas para os cenários futuros foram bastante diferentes entre as regiões brasileiras. A principal explicação para esse padrão são as distintas condições climáticas e estruturas de produção. Considerando as mudanças climáticas, há expectativa de aumento na probabilidade de irrigação para os próximos 30 anos (2010 a 2039) em todas as regiões brasileiras. No entanto, esta tendência é invertida no longo prazo.

This paper examines the factors influencing water reuse in manufacturing firms and analyzes whether the structure of intake water demand differs between firms that adopt water reuse practices and those which do not. To this purpose, we estimate a two-stage econometric model based on a sample of 447 industrial facilities located in the Paraíba do Sul river basin. The first stage applies a probit model for the water reuse decision and the second stage employs an endogenous switching regression to estimate the intake water demand equations. Results suggest that water charges may act as an effective mechanism in inducing firms to undertake water reuse investments and reducing intake water demand. Estimates of the water demand price elasticities indicate that plants reusing water are more sensitive to water price increases than plants without access to reuse technologies. Este artigo examina os fatores que influenciam a decisão das firmas de adotar práticas de reúso de água e avalia se essa decisão afeta o comportamento delas em relação à demanda por recursos hídricos. Para isso, estima-se um modelo econométrico em dois estágios, a partir de informações coletadas em 447 estabelecimentos industriais situados na região da bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul. O primeiro estágio analisa a decisão da firma de reutilizar ou não a água através de um modelo probit. No segundo estágio são estimadas equações de demanda de água separadamente para os estabelecimentos industriais que reutilizam água e as demais. Os resultados sugerem que a implementação da cobrança pelo uso da água pode ser um instrumento eficaz de incentivo à adoção de práticas de reúso e também na redução da demanda de água, promovendo, dessa forma, a conservação de recursos hídricos. A estimação das elasticidades-preço das demandas de água mostra ainda que os estabelecimentos que reutilizam água reagem de maneira mais forte a variações no preço da água que aquelas que não adotam práticas de reúso.

International audience; This study investigates the impact of formal and informal regulations on environmental and economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms. We adopt a dual approach where production technology is represented by a cost function, approximated by a translog form. Pollution is considered as a negative by-product that can be modified trough using either formal regulation (inspections or sanctions) or informal regulation (community pressure). A simultaneous equation model is estimated by three-stage least squares on a sample of 404 industrial establishments located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. We show that pollution abatement costs for the Brazilian manufacturing sector are different from zero which suggests that pollution emissions are affected by environmental regulation. We also demonstrate that environmental performance of firms is jointly affected by formal and informal regulation. Lastly, formal regulation is largely influenced by informal regulation and more specifically by community pressure.

Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a agricultura brasileira tanto em termos da rentabilidade agrícola quanto do preço da terra. Para este fim, são estimados dois modelos econométricos: o modelo de efeitos fixos, segundo a metodologia desenvolvida por Deschênes e Greenstone (2007), e o modelo de preços hedônicos proposto por Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Ambos os modelos são estimados utilizando dados de painel para os municípios brasileiros no período de 1970-1995. Os resultados das simulações sugerem que o impacto das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola brasileiro será relativamente modesto no médio prazo. Contudo, estes impactos tendem a tornar-se significativamente mais severos no longo prazo--------------------------This paper aims at estimating the effects of climate change on the Brazilian agriculture both in terms of agricultural profitability and land values. To accomplish this task, we estimate two econometric models: the fixed-effects model proposed by Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and the hedonic model proposed by Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Both models are estimated for a panel of municipalities covering the period 1970-1995. Simulation results suggest that the overall impact of climate change will be quite modest for the Brazilian agriculture in the medium term, but these impacts are considerably more severe in the long term.

International audience; Policymakers should be aware of the potential trade-off between environmental effectiveness and competitiveness concerns involving water charge implementation. This trade-off can be particularly important in countries such as Brazil, which adopt a decentralized and participative water management approach through River Basin Committees. In such a regulatory framework, it is crucial for the consensus reaching process to evaluate in advance potential impacts of water charge schemes. This paper aims at assessing the economic and environmental impacts of industrial water charges in Brazil. The analysis is based on a survey of 488 plants located within the Paraíba do Sul River Basin. The survey indicates that a significant proportion of the industrial plants approves the water charge mechanism and that increasing water costs are already inducing them to undertake conservation measures. Simulations based on an econometric water demand model suggest that water charges can induce significant industrial water demand reductions with limited impact on firms' costs. Regarding pollution control, the estimated marginal effluent treatment costs are far above the current values established for the pollution-related component of the water charge. These results indicate that competitiveness conflicts will not necessarily pervade the political economy of water charges in Brazil.

This article aims at presenting the results of the "Survey of Industrial Water Use at the Paraiba do Sul River Basin". This survey collected data about 488 industrial facilities located in the river basin area. The survey had the following goals: a) providing a general characterization of the role of water in industrial plants; and b) assessing the financial and environmental impacts of the implementation of water charges in the basin, through the analysis of firms' water demand behaviour and effluent treatment costs. Results suggest that water charges may attain satisfactory results in terms of water resources conservation while not implying in significant cost increases to the firms. On the other hand, marginal treatment cost estimations are far above the proposed charge levels for effluent discharge. This indicates that, at least during the initial implementation period, water charges will not be an effective mechanism to induce firms to undertake pollution control measures.

International audience; This book argues that the economic appeal of using water charges to promote efficiency in usage and pollution control can be constrained by institutional and operational problems. Analyzing the cases of France, Mexico and Brazil, the authors - respective local experts - illustrate that barriers are similar despite the existing differences among these economies. Each country evaluation within the book is analyzed using the same framework, covering topics of relevance for the application of a policy instrument, namely: • policy analysis phase: the policy setting in which the water economic instrument (EI) was introduced as a means of achieving policy goals • instrument design phase: the theoretical, institutional and legal basis on which the EI was conceived • instrument implementation phase: successes and failures of the EI application and its review process. Based on this comparative analysis, the authors gather substantial material on institutional and operational barriers constraining the full application of water charges. They also identify possible solutions already in place in these countries to remove or mitigate these barriers. The book concludes that although mistakes and solutions vary, valuable lessons can be learnt by those making decisions on water management and environmental pricing. Providing a concise and didactic background on the theoretical, conceptual and operational issues related to environmental pricing, this book will appeal to students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners with a specific interest in water management.

Science has a critical role to play in guiding more sustainable development trajectories. Here, we present the Sustainable Amazon Network ( Rede Amazônia Sustentável , RAS): a multidisciplinary research initiative involving more than 30 partner organizations working to assess both social and ecological dimensions of land-use sustainability in eastern Brazilian Amazonia. The research approach adopted by RAS offers three advantages for addressing land-use sustainability problems: (i) the collection of synchronized and co-located ecological and socioeconomic data across broad gradients of past and present human use; (ii) a nested sampling design to aid comparison of ecological and socioeconomic conditions associated with different land uses across local, landscape and regional scales; and (iii) a strong engagement with a wide variety of actors and non-research institutions. Here, we elaborate on these key features, and identify the ways in which RAS can help in highlighting those problems in most urgent need of attention, and in guiding improvements in land-use sustainability in Amazonia and elsewhere in the tropics. We also discuss some of the practical lessons, limitations and realities faced during the development of the RAS initiative so far.

Este trabalho mede o impacto econômico que as mudanças climáticas projetadas para as regiões brasileiras podem ter até o final do século. Em particular, estima o impacto direto que essa mudança no padrão climático terá sobre a produtividade das principais culturas agrícolas do país e o impacto indireto dessas mudanças na economia brasileira como um todo. Ademais, constrói um índice de vulnerabilidade que permite detectar quais são as regiões brasileiras mais vulneráveis em termos de mudanças climáticas para o período estudado. Por fim, utiliza metodologia proposta na literatura a fim de tratar da incerteza dos resultados de maneira explícita. A análise é realizada com dados de soja, cana-de-açúcar, milho, feijão café e laranja entre 1994 e 2015. Essas culturas representam cerca de 82% área de cultivo agrícola do país. Além disso, o modelo inter-regional de EGC usa os dados mais recentes disponíveis em sua calibragem e capta a interdependência regional dos 27 Estados brasileiros. Por fim, o trabalho usa as projeções para o padrão regional de mudanças climáticas fornecido pelo 5º Assessment Report do IPCC (AR5). Os resultados apontam para um impacto econômico bastante heterogêneo entre as regiões brasileiras. Em termos diretos, as perdas agrícolas totais até o final do século variam de 9,7% a 55,6% do PIB brasileiro até o final do século. Sob o aspecto regional, os Estados que apresentam maiores perdas são São Paulo, Paraná e Minas Gerais em todos os cenários. Os impactos de 2ª ordem derivados dessas perdas de produtividade variam de R$2,2 trilhões à R$ 9,2 trilhões a depender dos cenários e se estão mais concentrados nos Estados da região Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste. This study measures the impact Brazil has to have until the end of the century. In particular, estimating the impact that does not refer to a climate model on the Brazilian economy as a whole. In addition, construct the index of vulnerability that could detect those that are the most vulnerable regions in terms of climatic changes for the studied period. Finally, in the critical analysis, in order to treat the uncertainty of the results explicitly. The analysis is performed with data on soybean, sugarcane, corn, beans and orange between 1994 and 2015. The 6 countries represent 86% of the country\'s agricultural area. In addition, the CGE interregional model uses the most recent data on its calibration and capture in a regional interdependence of the 27 Brazilian states. Finally, the paper uses as projections for the regional pattern of change control by the IPCC\'s 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The results point to a very heterogeneous economic impact among the Brazilian regions. In direct terms, as the successive exchange rates until the end of the year, they vary from 9.7% to 55.6% of Brazilian GDP by the end of the century. Under the regional aspect, the states of which are most important are São Paulo, Paraná and Minas Gerais in all scenarios. The second-highest ratings ranged from R $ 2.2 trillion to R $ 9.2 trillion from the scenarios and are more concentrated in the states of the South, Southeast and Midwest

The Brazilian Amazon has been undergoing a process of population growth and urbanization in recent decades. Its urban population increased from 42% to 71% between 1960 and 2010, and in the last decade, its overall population grew around 21%. Such rises bring important consequences not only economically, but also in environmental terms, especially considering that the largest remaining rainforest in the world is located within this region. Nevertheless, this scenario is still poorly addressed by literature. Bearing this in mind, this thesis aims to examine some economic and environmental aspects related to this context, and is specifically divided into three essays. Firstly, a spatial econometric approach is implemented, based on the framework of spatial economics models, in order to investigate whether this process of urbanization has been generating local economic growth and development. In the second essay, aiming to measure the environmental impacts of such population growth and urbanization, an Interregional Input-Output model is built, for the year of 2004, merging data regarding the productive structure and land use transition in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, this method allows the measurement of how much local deforestation may be attributed to the consumption of goods and services demanded by households living within the region, considering all direct and indirect production of inputs and outputs in every region of Brazil. Moreover, in order to capture the effects of local urbanization, special focus is given to the demands of the families living within the five Brazilian Amazon metropolitan regions. Finally, in the third essay, given that population growth and urbanization processes are directly related to migration flows, an econometric model was implemented in order to investigate the determinants of immigration and emigration flows between the Brazilian Amazon and the rest of Brazil. This estimation allowed the comparison of the reasons that have been driving the exit and the entry of individuals in the region. Such methodology makes use of estimators which take into account econometric problems commonly attributed by literature to the modeling of migration flows, such as the sample selection issue regarding the potential differences in skills between migrants and non-migrants. As main results, we find evidence that these local processes of urbanization and population growth have been causing a \"trade -off\" in the region: on the one hand, such processes seem to be driving local economic growth and development, but on the other, they also tend to increase regional deforestation. Furthermore, we find evidence that although the immigration and emigration flows of the Brazilian Amazon have been currently well-balanced, local vegetative growth still has been fueling such population growth and urbanization. Moreover, we find that the motivations which lead individuals to immigrate to the Brazilian Amazon are quite distinct from those that encourage people to leave it: whereas the former seek immediate higher levels of real income, the latter seem to move to cities with higher levels of education. A Amazônia Brasileira vem passando por um processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização nas últimas décadas. Sua população urbana passou de 42% para 71% entre 1960 e 2010, e na última década o crescimento populacional da região foi de 21%. Tais processos trazem consigo consequências importantes não apenas em termos econômicos, mas também em termos ambientais, especialmente se considerando que a maior floresta tropical do mundo está localizada nesta região. No entanto, este aspecto é ainda pouco estudado pela literatura econômica. Tendo isto em vista, este trabalho se propõe a estudar alguns aspectos econômicos e ambientais relacionados este quadro, divididos em três ensaios. No primeiro, são utilizados métodos de econometria espacial, baseados em modelos de economia espacial, para investigar se este processo de urbanização tem causado crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico local. No segundo ensaio, a fim de medir os impactos ambientais do crescimento populacional e da urbanização locais, informações a respeito da estrutura produtiva e do uso do solo na Amazônia Brasileira são cruzadas em um modelo Inter-regional de Insumo-Produto, que mede o quanto do desmatamento anual da floresta Amazônica é devido ao consumo de bens e serviços por parte das famílias que vivem na região, considerando toda a cadeia produtiva brasileira. A fim de capturar os efeitos da urbanização, foco especial é dado às demandas das famílias que vivem nas cinco regiões metropolitanas da Amazônia Brasileira. Por fim, no terceiro ensaio, devido ao fato de que urbanização e crescimento populacional são processos diretamente relacionados à migração de indivíduos, é desenvolvida uma metodologia econométrica que investiga os determinantes dos fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios entre a Amazônia Brasileira e o restante do Brasil, no intuito de comparar os motivos que causam a entrada e saída de pessoas na região. Tal metodologia faz uso de estimadores que levam em conta problemas comumente atribuídos pela literatura na modelagem de fluxos migratórios, como a questão da seleção amostral relativa a potenciais diferenças de habilidade entre populações de migrantes e de não migrantes. Como principais resultados, encontramos evidências de que tais processos de urbanização e crescimento populacional têm causado um \"trade-off\" econômico-ambiental na região: por um lado tais processos têm promovido o desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico local, mas por outro lado, eles também vêm causando aumento dos níveis do desmatamento regional. Além disso, encontramos evidência de que embora os fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios relativos à Amazônia encontrem-se equilibrados atualmente, o crescimento vegetativo local ainda alimenta os processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização. Finalmente, nossos resultados apontam que as motivações que levam indivíduos a se mudarem para a Amazônia são distintas daquelas que levam pessoas a se deixarem a região: enquanto os primeiros buscam maiores níveis imediatos de renda real, os últimos buscam mais claramente se mudarem para municípios com melhores níveis educacionais.

The use of fire as an agricultural tool perpetuates in Brazilian Amazon, despite its negative socioeconomic, environmental and public health impacts. Two topics of the problem are investigated, by looking to the current period (2009-2010) and for three municipalities of the State of Pará, namely Santarém, Belterra and Paragominas. The analysis is restricted to motivations and consequences with strictly economic nature and fires linked with deforestation are kept out of the scope of analysis. Slash and Burn Agriculture (S&BA) is practiced by smallholders mainly for growing annual crops. The first essay demonstrates that the profitability of S&BA is governed by the trade-off between cost-free fertilization through the burning of secondary vegetation and idleness of the land. Additionally, it is established that, a reduction of the fallow duration, depending on the initial duration, can generate a cash surplus that can be used to finance (at least partially) the transition to a fire-free agriculture. The second topic addressed is the one of accidental fires, conceived as a phenomemon that emerges from collective behavior. The second essay tests the hypothesis that eventual damage to assets belonging to other farmers is not internalized by farmers when they decide to start a fire. Such hypothesis is not refuted by georeferenced data for the municipality of Paragominas and for the year of 2010. For this, spatial econometric and instrumental variables models are estimated. The third essay tests the hypothesis that the risk of losses potentially imposed by fires started in neighboring farms is not accounted by farmers when deciding how to allocate their land among alternative uses. This hypothesis is not refuted by microdata at the farm level, collected through a field survey conducted in the municipalities of Santarém, Belterra and Paragominas. The analysis is restricted to 2009. The technique of Iterated Seemingly-Unrelated Regressions is employed to estimate a system of equations determining how much land is allocated to each class of land of use. Na Amazônia brasileira, o uso de fogo no suporte à agropecuária se perpetua, apesar de seus efeitos negativos sobre sociedade, meio-ambiente e saúde pública. Dois tópicos do problema são investigados, olhando-se para o período atual (2009-2010) e para três municípios do estado do Pará, nomeadamente Santarém, Belterra e Paragominas. A análise se restringe a motivações e consequências de ordem estritamente econômicas e as queimadas que dão apoio à supressão de floresta primária são mantidas fora do escopo da análise. O sistema agrícola conhecido por corte-e-queima é utilizado por pequenos produtores como base técnica para o cultivo de culturas anuais. O primeiro ensaio demonstra que a lucratividade do sistema é regida pelo trade-off entre fertilização gratuita via queima da vegetação secundária e ociosidade da terra. Adicionalmente, é estabelecido que, uma redução na duração do pousio, a depender da duração de partida, pode gerar uma sobra de caixa que pode ser empregada no financiamento (ainda que parcial) da transição para uma agricultura livre de fogo. O segundo tópico estudado é o de incêndios iniciados por atividades agropecuárias, como produto da ação coletiva de diversos produtores, geograficamente próximos. O segundo ensaio testa a hipótese de que os danos causados ao patrimônio alheio pela perda de controle sobre o fogo não são internalizados pelos produtores quando decidem iniciar uma queimada. Tal hipótese é não refutada por dados georreferenciados referentes ao município de Paragominas e ao ano de 2010. Para isso, são estimados modelos de econometria espacial e de variáveis instrumentais. O terceiro ensaio testa a hipótese de que o risco de perdas impostas por incêndios iniciados em estabelecimentos vizinhos não é levado em conta pelos produtores, ao decidirem quanto à alocação da terra entre fins alternativos. Tal hipótese é não-refutada por microdados no nível de estabelecimentos agrícolas, coletados por meio de um levantamento de campo, nos munícipios de Santarém, Belterra e Paragominas. A análise se restringe ao ano de 2009. A técnica de Iterated Seemingly Unrelated Regression é empregada para estimar um sistema de equações que determina a área ocupada por cada uma das classes de uso da terra.