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Summary Background Triple antimalarial combination therapies combine potent and rapidly cleared artemisinins or related synthetic ozonides, such as arterolane, with two, more slowly eliminated partner drugs to reduce the risk of resistance. We aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine versus arterolane–piperaquine and artemether–lumefantrine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Kenyan children. Methods In this single-centre, open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial done in Kilifi County Hospital, Kilifi, coastal Kenya, children with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were recruited. Eligible patients were aged 2–12 years and had an asexual parasitaemia of 5000–250 000 parasites per μL. The exclusion criteria included the presence of an acute illness other than malaria, the inability to tolerate oral medications, treatment with an artemisinin derivative in the previous 7 days, a known hypersensitivity or contraindication to any of the study drugs, and a QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc interval) longer than 450 ms. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1), by use of blocks of six, nine, and 12, and opaque, sealed, and sequentially numbered envelopes, to receive either arterolane–piperaquine, arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine, or artemether–lumefantrine. Laboratory staff, but not the patients, the patients' parents or caregivers, clinical or medical officers, nurses, or trial statistician, were masked to the intervention groups. For 3 days, oral artemether–lumefantrine was administered twice daily (target dose 5–24 mg/kg of bodyweight of artemether and 29–144 mg/kg of bodyweight of lumefantrine), and oral arterolane–piperaquine (arterolane dose 4 mg/kg of bodyweight; piperaquine dose 20 mg/kg of bodyweight) and oral arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine (mefloquine dose 8 mg/kg of bodyweight) were administered once daily. All patients received 0·25 mg/kg of bodyweight of oral primaquine at hour 24. All patients were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital for at least 3 consecutive days and followed up at day 7 and, thereafter, weekly for up to 42 days. The primary endpoint was 42-day PCR-corrected efficacy, defined as the absence of treatment failure in the first 42 days post-treatment, of arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine versus artemether–lumefantrine, and, along with safety, was analysed in the intention-to-treat population, which comprised all patients who received at least one dose of a study drug. The 42-day PCR-corrected efficacy of arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine versus arterolane–piperaquine was an important secondary endpoint and was also analysed in the intention-to-treat population. The non-inferiority margin for the risk difference between treatments was −7%. The study is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03452475 , and is completed. Findings Between March 7, 2018, and May 2, 2019, 533 children with P falciparum were screened, of whom 217 were randomly assigned to receive either arterolane–piperaquine (n=73), arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine (n=72), or artemether–lumefantrine (n=72) and comprised the intention-to-treat population. The 42-day PCR-corrected efficacy after treatment with arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine (100%, 95% CI 95–100; 72/72) was non-inferior to that after treatment with artemether–lumefantrine (96%, 95% CI 88–99; 69/72; risk difference 4%, 95% CI 0–9; p=0·25). The 42-day PCR-corrected efficacy of arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine was non-inferior to that of arterolane–piperaquine (100%, 95% CI 95–100; 73/73; risk difference 0%). Vomiting rates in the first hour post-drug administration were significantly higher in patients treated with arterolane–piperaquine (5%, 95% CI 2–9; ten of 203 drug administrations; p=0·0013) or arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine (5%, 3–9; 11 of 209 drug administrations; p=0·0006) than in patients treated with artemether–lumefantrine (1%, 0–2; three of 415 drug administrations). Upper respiratory tract complaints (n=26 for artemether–lumefantrine; n=19 for arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine; n=23 for arterolane–piperaquine), headache (n=13; n=4; n=5), and abdominal pain (n=7; n=5; n=5) were the most frequently reported adverse events. There were no deaths. Interpretation This study shows that arterolane–piperaquine–mefloquine is an efficacious and safe treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children and could potentially be used to prevent or delay the emergence of antimalarial resistance. Funding UK Department for International Development, The Wellcome Trust, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) provide point-of-care medical screening without the need for expensive laboratory equipment. RDTs are theoretically straightforward to use, yet their analog colorimetric output leaves room for diagnostic uncertainty and error. Furthermore, RDT results within a community are kept isolated unless they are aggregated by healthcare workers, limiting the potential that RDTs can have in supporting public health efforts. In light of these issues, we present a system called RDTScan for detecting and interpreting lateral flow RDTs with a smartphone. RDTScan provides real-time guidance for clear RDT image capture and automatic interpretation for accurate diagnostic decisions. RDTScan is structured to be quickly configurable to new RDT designs by requiring only a template image and some metadata about how the RDT is supposed to be read, making it easier to extend than a data-driven approach. Through a controlled lab study, we demonstrate that RDTScan's limit-of-detection can match, and even exceed, the performance of expert readers who are interpreting the physical RDTs themselves. We then present two field evaluations of smartphone apps built on the RDTScan system: (1) at-home influenza testing in Australia and (2) malaria testing by community healthcare workers in Kenya. RDTScan achieved 97.5% and 96.3% accuracy compared to RDT interpretation by experts in the Australia Flu Study and the Kenya Malaria Study, respectively.

After decades of research, our understanding of when and why individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum develop clinical malaria is still limited. Correlates of immune protection are often sought through prospective cohort studies, where measured host factors are correlated against the incidence of clinical disease over a set period of time. However, robustly inferring individual-level protection from these population-level findings has proved difficult due to small effect sizes and high levels of variance underlying such data. In order to better understand the nature of these inter-individual variations, we analysed the long-term malaria epidemiology of children ≤12 years old growing up under seasonal exposure to the parasite in the sub-location of Junju, Kenya. Despite the cohort’s limited geographic expanse (ca. 3km x 10km), our data reveal a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in malaria prevalence and incidence rates, causing individuals to experience varying levels of exposure to the parasite at different times during their life. Analysing individual-level infection histories further reveal an unexpectedly high variability in the rate at which children experience clinical malaria episodes. Besides exposure to the parasite, measured as disease prevalence in the surrounding area, we find that the birth time of year has an independent effect on the individual’s risk of experiencing a clinical episode. Furthermore, our analyses reveal that those children with a history of an above average number of episodes are more likely to experience further episodes during the upcoming transmission season. These findings are indicative of phenotypic differences in the rates by which children acquire clinical protection to malaria and offer important insights into the natural variability underlying malaria epidemiology.

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

Background Human infection studies (HIS) that involve deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with a pathogen raise important ethical issues, including the need to ensure that benefits and burdens are understood and appropriately accounted for. Building on earlier work, we embedded social science research within an ongoing malaria human infection study in coastal Kenya to understand the study benefits and burdens experienced by study stakeholders in this low-resource setting and assess the wider implications for future research planning and policy. Methods Data were collected using qualitative research methods, including in-depth interviews (44), focus group discussions (10) and non-participation observation. Study participants were purposively selected (key informant or maximal diversity sampling), including volunteers in the human infection study, study staff, community representatives and local administrative authorities. Data were collected during and up to 18 months following study residency, from sites in Coastal and Western Kenya. Voice recordings of interviews and discussions were transcribed, translated, and analysed using framework analysis, combining data- and theory-driven perspectives. Findings Physical, psychological, economic and social forms of benefits and burdens were experienced across study stages. Important benefits for volunteers included the study compensation, access to health checks, good residential living conditions, new learning opportunities, developing friendships and satisfaction at contributing towards a new malaria vaccine. Burdens primarily affected study volunteers, including experiences of discomfort and ill health; fear and anxiety around aspects of the trial process, particularly deliberate infection and the implications of prolonged residency; anxieties about early residency exit; and interpersonal conflict. These issues had important implications for volunteers’ families, study staff and the research institution’s reputation more widely. Conclusion Developing ethically and scientifically strong HIS relies on grounded accounts of volunteers, study staff and the wider community, understood in the socioeconomic, political and cultural context where studies are implemented. Recognition of the diverse, and sometimes perverse, nature of potential benefits and burdens in a given context, and who this might implicate, is critical to this process. Prior and ongoing stakeholder engagement is core to developing these insights.

Atypical memory B cells (aMBCs) are found in elevated numbers in individuals exposed to malaria. A key question is whether malaria induces aMBCs as a result of exposure to Ag, or non-Ag-specific mechanisms. We identified Plasmodium and bystander tetanus toxoid (TT) specific B cells in individuals from areas of previous and persistent exposure to malaria using tetramers. Malaria-specific B cells were more likely to be aMBCs than TT-specific B cells. However, TT-specific B cells from individuals with continuous exposure to malaria were more likely to be aMBCs than TT-specific B cells in individuals from areas where transmission has ceased. Finally, sequences of BCRs specific for a blood stage malaria-Ag were more highly mutated than sequences from TT-specific BCRs and under strong negative selection, indicative of ongoing antigenic pressure. Our data suggest both persistent Ag exposure and the inflammatory environment shape the B-cell response to malaria and bystander Ags.

Background: Screening for Plasmodium spp. sporozoite infection in mosquitoes is routinely done using ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), a fast and non-destructive method, has recently been shown to distinguish, with 95% accuracy, between uninfected and sporozoite-infected mosquitoes using laboratory strains of Plasmodium falciparum (PfN54). The aim of this present study was to further investigate the reproducibility of NIRS to identify sporozoite infection in mosquitoes infected using field isolates of P. falciparum gametocytes from asymptomatic carriers. Methods: Healthy individuals (aged 5 years and above) were screened for gametocytaemia by thick-smear microscopy in an area of moderate transmission along the Coast of Kenya between May and September 2018. Asymptomatic gametocyte carriers were recruited for mosquito feeding assays, direct membrane feeding (DMFA) and direct skin feeding (DFA), using insectary-reared Anopheles gambiae s.s (Kilifi strain). Mosquitoes were kept for 14-days post feeding after which they were scanned using NIRS and subsequently analysed for sporozoite infection using circumsporozoite-ELISA. Predictive models were explored using partial least square regressions (PLS).Results: Two hundred and ninety-nine (299) individuals were screened for malaria parasites, 74 (24.8%) were found with circulating asexual parasites, and 16 (5.4%) with P. falciparum gametocyte stages.Fourteen (14) asymptomatic gametocyte carriers were recruited to the study for mosquito feeding assays. A total of 134 (7%, 134/1881) sporozoite-infected mosquitoes were obtained from 9 successful experiments. Three different training datasets composed of infected and uninfected mosquitoes were analysed. The PLS models were unable to distinguish between sporozoite-infected and uninfected mosquitoes. A predictive model could not be generated.Conclusions: The results of this study were not consistent with previous published research on NIRS for detection of sporozoite infection in the same mosquito species and may reflect differences between laboratory and field conditions. The current findings indicate that methods for sporozoite detection should be tested on field isolates at an early stage in their development and are informative for future research seeking novel high-throughput methods for parasite detection in mosquitoes.

BackgroundScreening for Plasmodium spp. sporozoite infection in mosquitoes is routinely done using ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), a fast and non-destructive method, has recently been shown to distinguish, with 95% accuracy, between uninfected and sporozoite-infected mosquitoes using laboratory strains of Plasmodium falciparum (PfN54). The aim of this present study was to further investigate the reproducibility of NIRS to identify sporozoite infection in mosquitoes infected using field isolates of P. falciparum gametocytes from asymptomatic carriers.MethodsHealthy individuals (aged 5 years and above) were screened for gametocytaemia by thick-smear microscopy in an area of moderate transmission along the Coast of Kenya between May and September 2018. Asymptomatic gametocyte carriers were recruited for mosquito feeding assays, direct membrane feeding (DMFA) and direct skin feeding (DFA), using insectary-reared Anopheles gambiae s.s (Kilifi strain). Mosquitoes were kept for 14-days post feeding after which they were scanned using NIRS and subsequently analysed for sporozoite infection using circumsporozoite-ELISA. Predictive models were explored using partial least square regressions (PLS).ResultsTwo hundred and ninety-nine (299) individuals were screened for malaria parasites, 74 (24.8%) were found with circulating asexual parasites, and 16 (5.4%) with P. falciparum gametocyte stages. Fourteen (14) asymptomatic gametocyte carriers were recruited to the study for mosquito feeding assays. A total of 134 (7%, 134/1881) sporozoite-infected mosquitoes were obtained from 9 successful experiments. Three different training datasets composed of infected and uninfected mosquitoes were analysed. The PLS models were unable to distinguish between sporozoite-infected and uninfected mosquitoes. A predictive model could not be generated.ConclusionsThe results of this study were not consistent with previous published research on NIRS for detection of sporozoite infection in the same mosquito species and may reflect differences between laboratory and field conditions. The current findings indicate that methods for sporozoite detection should be tested on field isolates at an early stage in their development and are informative for future research seeking novel high-throughput methods for parasite detection in mosquitoes.

Background Malaria control strategies need to respond to geographical hotspots of transmission. Detection of hotspots depends on the sensitivity of the diagnostic tool used. Methods We conducted cross-sectional surveys in 3 sites within Kilifi County, Kenya, that had variable transmission intensities. Rapid diagnostic test (RDT), microscopy, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were used to detect asymptomatic parasitemia, and hotspots were detected using the spatial scan statistic. Results Eight thousand five hundred eighty-one study participants were surveyed in 3 sites. There were statistically significant malaria hotspots by RDT, microscopy, and PCR for all sites except by microscopy in 1 low transmission site. Pooled data analysis of hotspots by PCR overlapped with hotspots by microscopy at a moderate setting but not at 2 lower transmission settings. However, variations in degree of overlap were noted when data were analyzed by year. Hotspots by RDT were predictive of PCR/microscopy at the moderate setting, but not at the 2 low transmission settings. We observed long-term stability of hotspots by PCR and microscopy but not RDT. Conclusion Malaria control programs may consider PCR testing to guide asymptomatic malaria hotspot detection once the prevalence of infection falls.

Background: Central to the successful elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, are tests with superior capability of diagnosing low-density parasitaemias. Empirical evidence on the performance of the commonly available diagnostics (light microscopy (LM), rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) is needed to better inform case management and surveillance activities within primary health care settings where elimination of falciparum malaria is targeted. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) and predictive values of LM, RDT and PCR tests for P. falciparum infection in children, while evaluating the effect of specific covariates on the accuracy of the tests. Methods: The study enrolled 1,563 children presenting with fever (axillary temperature ≥ 37.50C) to the Ngerenya dispensary, Kilifi County between March and December 2014. A Bayesian latent class model (BLCM) was fitted to the participants’ diagnostic data obtained from blood samples that were screened for the presence of P. falciparum using the three tests. Results: The PCR assay registered a higher Se (97.6% [92.0; 99.7]) than LM (84.0% [74.8; 91.0]) but similar to RDT (92.2% [84.4; 97.0]). However, the assay showed a similar Sp (98.9% [98.2; 99.4]) to both RDT (99.4% [98.9; 99.7]) and LM (99.5% [99.0; 99.8]). Regarding predictive values, the tests yielded statistically similar estimates of positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). A serial interpretation of the results of RDT and LM raised the PPVs and NPVs to >98%. Conclusions: LM and RDT afford high Se and Sp in symptomatic care-seeking children in this low P. falciparum prevalence setting. A serial combination of the tests assures high PPV and NPV estimates. These elements, coupled with the wide deployment and affordability of the tests, lend the tests useful for guiding clinical care and surveillance activities for P. falciparum within elimination settings.

We present data from 3 cohorts in 1 geographical area with varying levels of malaria transmission. The results show that asymptomatic parasitemia is modified by transmission level and age, which alter the risk of developing febrile malaria., Background Plasmodium falciparum infections lead to febrile illness unless the host has sufficient immunity, in which case infection may cause no immediate symptoms (ie, “asymptomatic parasitemia”). Previous studies are conflicting on the role of asymptomatic parasitemia in determining the risk of developing febrile malaria. Methods We monitored 2513 children (living in Kilifi, Kenyan Coast) by blood smears in 17 cross-sectional surveys to identify asymptomatic parasitemia and used active surveillance over 11325 child-years of follow-up to detect febrile malaria. We evaluated the interaction between transmission intensity, age, and asymptomatic parasitemia in determining the risk of developing febrile malaria. Results In the moderate and high transmission intensity settings, asymptomatic parasitemia was associated with a reduced risk of febrile malaria in older children (> 3 years), while in the lower transmission setting, asymptomatic parasitemia was associated with an increased risk of febrile malaria in children of all ages. Additionally, the risk associated with asymptomatic parasitemia was limited to the first 90 days of follow-up. Conclusions Asymptomatic parasitemia is modified by transmission intensity and age, altering the risk of developing febrile episodes and suggesting that host immunity plays a prominent role in mediating this process.

Plasmodium falciparum antigens expressed on the surface of infected erythrocytes are important targets of naturally acquired immunity against malaria, but their high number and variability provide the pathogen with a powerful means of escape from host antibodies. Although broadly reactive antibodies against these antigens could be useful as therapeutics and in vaccine design, their identification has proven elusive. Here we report the isolation of human monoclonal antibodies that recognize erythrocytes infected by different P. falciparum isolates and opsonize these cells by binding to members of the RIFIN family. These antibodies acquired broad reactivity through a novel mechanism of insertion of a large DNA fragment between the V and DJ segments. The insert, which is both necessary and sufficient for binding to RIFINs, encodes the entire 98 amino acid collagen-binding domain of LAIR1, an immunoglobulin superfamily inhibitory receptor encoded on chromosome 19. In each of the two donors studied, the antibodies are produced by a single expanded B-cell clone and carry distinct somatic mutations in the LAIR1 domain that abolish binding to collagen and increase binding to infected erythrocytes. These findings illustrate, with a biologically relevant example, a novel mechanism of antibody diversification by interchromosomal DNA transposition and demonstrate the existence of conserved epitopes that may be suitable candidates for the development of a malaria vaccine.

The study received funding from the UK Medical Research Council, (MRC Programme grant #: MR/M003906/1). MB and AR are supported by the Wellcome Trust (Grant #: WT 206194). Background There are over 200 million reported cases of malaria each year, and most children living in endemic areas will experience multiple episodes of clinical disease before puberty. We set out to understand how frequent clinical malaria, which elicits a strong inflammatory response, affects the immune system and whether these modifications are observable in the absence of detectable parasitaemia. Methods We used a multi-dimensional approach comprising whole blood transcriptomic, cellular and plasma cytokine analyses on a cohort of children living with endemic malaria, but uninfected at sampling, who had been under active surveillance for malaria for 8 years. Children were categorised into two groups depending on the cumulative number of episodes experienced: high (≥ 8) or low (

BACKGROUND: The candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01E has entered phase 3 trials, but data on long-term outcomes are limited. METHODS: For 4 years, we followed children who had been randomly assigned, at 5 to 17 months of age, to receive three doses of RTS,S/AS01E vaccine (223 children) or rabies vaccine (224 controls). The end point was clinical malaria (temperature of ≥37.5°C and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia density of >2500 parasites per cubic millimeter). Each child's exposure to malaria was estimated with the use of the distance-weighted local prevalence of malaria. RESULTS: Over a period of 4 years, 118 of 223 children who received the RTS,S/AS01E vaccine and 138 of 224 of the controls had at least 1 episode of clinical malaria. Vaccine efficacies in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were 29.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.3 to 45.3; P=0.005) and 32.1% (95% CI, 11.6 to 47.8; P=0.004), respectively, calculated by Cox regression. Multiple episodes were common, with 551 and 618 malarial episodes in the RTS,S/AS01E and control groups, respectively; vaccine efficacies in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were 16.8% (95% CI, -8.6 to 36.3; P=0.18) and 24.3% (95% CI, 1.9 to 41.6; P=0.04), respectively, calculated by the Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox model. For every 100 vaccinated children, 65 cases of clinical malaria were averted. Vaccine efficacy declined over time (P=0.004) and with increasing exposure to malaria (P=0.001) in the per-protocol analysis. Vaccine efficacy was 43.6% (95% CI, 15.5 to 62.3) in the first year but was -0.4% (95% CI, -32.1 to 45.3) in the fourth year. Among children with a malaria-exposure index that was average or lower than average, the vaccine efficacy was 45.1% (95% CI, 11.3 to 66.0), but among children with a malaria-exposure index that was higher than average it was 15.9% (95% CI, -11.0 to 36.4). CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of RTS,S/AS01E vaccine over the 4-year period was 16.8%. Efficacy declined over time and with increasing malaria exposure. (Funded by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative and Wellcome Trust; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00872963.).

Acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum infection causes a change from frequent, sometimes life-threatening, malaria in young children to asymptomatic, chronic infections in older children and adults. Little is known about how this transition occurs but antibodies to the extremely diverse PfEMP1 parasite antigens are thought to play a role. PfEMP1 is encoded by a family of 60 var genes that undergo clonal antigenic variation, potentially creating an antigenically heterogeneous infecting population of parasites within the host. Previous theoretical work suggests that antibodies to PfEMP1 may play a role in ‘‘orchestrating’’ their expression within infections leading to sequential, homogeneous expression of var genes, and prolonged infection chronicity. Here, using a cloning and sequencing approach we compare the var expression homogeneity (VEH) between isolates from children with asymptomatic and clinical infections. We show that asymptomatic infections have higher VEH than clinical infections and a broader host antibody response. We discuss this in relation to the potential role of host antibodies in promoting chronicity of infection and parasite survival through the low transmission season.

The candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 is being evaluated in order to inform a decision regarding its inclusion in routine vaccination schedules.We conducted 7 years of follow-up in children who had been randomly assigned, at 5 to 17 months of age, to receive three doses of either the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine or a rabies (control) vaccine. The end point was clinical malaria (temperature of ≥37.5°C and infection with Plasmodium falciparum of2500 parasites per cubic millimeter). In an analysis that was not prespecified, the malaria exposure of each child was estimated with the use of information on the prevalence of malaria among residents within a 1-km radius of the child's home. Vaccine efficacy was defined as 1 minus the hazard ratio or the incidence-rate ratio, multiplied by 100, in the RTS,S/AS01 group versus the control group.Over 7 years of follow-up, we identified 1002 episodes of clinical malaria among 223 children randomly assigned to the RTS,S/AS01 group and 992 episodes among 224 children randomly assigned to the control group. The vaccine efficacy, as assessed by negative binomial regression, was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], -17.0 to 21.9; P=0.66) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 7.0% (95% CI, -14.5 to 24.6; P=0.52) in the per-protocol analysis. Vaccine efficacy waned over time (P=0.006 for the interaction between vaccination and time), including negative efficacy during the fifth year among children with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites (intention-to-treat analysis: -43.5%; 95% CI, -100.3 to -2.8 [P=0.03]; per-protocol analysis: -56.8%; 95% CI, -118.7 to -12.3 [P=0.008]).A three-dose vaccination with RTS,S/AS01 was initially protective against clinical malaria, but this result was offset by rebound in later years in areas with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites. (Funded by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00872963.).

Background The distribution of Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria episodes is over-dispersed among children in endemic areas, with more children experiencing multiple clinical episodes than would be expected based on a Poisson distribution. There is consistent evidence for micro-epidemiological variation in exposure to P. falciparum. The aim of the current study was to identify children with excess malaria episodes after controlling for malaria exposure. Methods We selected the model that best fit the data out of the models examined and included the following covariates: age, a weighted local prevalence of infection as an index of exposure, and calendar time to predict episodes of malaria on active surveillance malaria data from 2,463 children of under 15 years of age followed for between 5 and 15 years each. Using parameters from the zero-inflated negative binomial model which best fitted our data, we ran 100 simulations of the model based on our population to determine the variation that might be seen due to chance. Results We identified 212 out of 2,463 children who had a number of clinical episodes above the 95th percentile of the simulations run from the model, hereafter referred to as “excess malaria (EM)”. We then identified exposure-matched controls with “average numbers of malaria” episodes, and found that the EM group had higher parasite densities when asymptomatically infected or during clinical malaria, and were less likely to be of haemoglobin AS genotype. Conclusions Of the models tested, the negative zero-inflated negative binomial distribution with exposure, calendar year, and age acting as independent predictors, fitted the distribution of clinical malaria the best. Despite accounting for these factors, a group of children suffer excess malaria episodes beyond those predicted by the model. An epidemiological framework for identifying these children will allow us to study factors that may explain excess malaria episodes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0422-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Epidemiological studies indicate that some children experience many more episodes of clinical malaria than their age mates in a given location. Whether this is as a result of the micro-heterogeneity of malaria transmission with some children effectively getting more exposure to infectious mosquitoes than others, or reflects a failure in the acquisition of immunity needs to be elucidated. Here, we investigated the determinants of increased susceptibility to clinical malaria by comparing the intensity of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and the acquisition of immunity in children at the extreme ends of the over-dispersed distribution of the incidence of clinical malaria. Methods The study was nested within a larger cohort in an area where the intensity of malaria transmission was low. We identified children who over a five-year period experienced 5 to 16 clinical malaria episodes (children at the tail-end of the over-dispersed distribution, n = 35), remained malaria-free (n = 12) or had a single episode (n = 26). We quantified antibodies against seven Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens in plasma obtained at six cross-sectional surveys spanning these five years. We analyzed the antibody responses to identify temporal dynamics that associate with disease susceptibility. Results Children experiencing multiple episodes of malaria were more likely to be parasite positive by microscopy at cross-sectional surveys (X2 test for trend 14.72 P = 0.001) and had a significantly higher malaria exposure index, than those in the malaria-free or single episode groups (Kruskal-Wallis test P = 0.009). In contrast, the five-year temporal dynamics of anti-merozoite antibodies were similar in the three groups. Importantly in all groups, antibody levels were below the threshold concentrations previously observed to be correlated with protective immunity. Conclusions We conclude that in the context of a low malaria transmission setting, susceptibility to clinical malaria is not accounted for by anti-merozoite antibodies but appears to be a consequence of increased parasite exposure. We hypothesize that intensive exposure is a prerequisite for protective antibody concentrations, while little to modest exposure may manifest as multiple clinical infections with low levels of antibodies. These findings have implications for interventions that effectively lower malaria transmission intensity. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0354-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Studies of the fine-scale spatial epidemiology of malaria consistently identify malaria hotspots, comprising clusters of homesteads at high transmission intensity. These hotspots sustain transmission, and may be targeted by malaria-control programmes. Here we describe the spatial relationship between the location of Anopheles larval sites and human malaria infection in a cohort study of 642 children, aged 1–10-years-old. Our data suggest that proximity to larval sites predict human malaria infection, when homesteads are upwind of larval sites, but not when homesteads are downwind of larval sites. We conclude that following oviposition, female Anophelines fly upwind in search for human hosts and, thus, malaria transmission may be disrupted by targeting vector larval sites in close proximity, and downwind to malaria hotspots., Spatial epidemiology studies identify malaria hotspots, which sustain transmission and so could be targeted by control programmes. This study uses spatial data on larval sites and malaria episodes to show that transmission can be disrupted by targeting vector breeding sites close to and downwind of malaria hotspots.

In the published article the part of the funding statement describing how Philip Bejon was supported should read: "PB is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre in Oxford." The corrected funding statement for this article reads in full: “The study was supported by the Wellcome Trust and by the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI). PB is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre in Oxford. KM, TNW, and FO are supported by the Wellcome Trust. SIH is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (#079091). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.”

Philip Bejon and colleagues document the clustering of malaria episodes and malarial parasite infection. These patterns may enable future prediction of hotspots of malaria infection and targeting of treatment or preventive interventions., Background Infectious diseases often demonstrate heterogeneity of transmission among host populations. This heterogeneity reduces the efficacy of control strategies, but also implies that focusing control strategies on “hotspots” of transmission could be highly effective. Methods and Findings In order to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, we analysed longitudinal data on febrile malaria episodes, asymptomatic parasitaemia, and antibody titres over 12 y from 256 homesteads in three study areas in Kilifi District on the Kenyan coast. We examined heterogeneity by homestead, and identified groups of homesteads that formed hotspots using a spatial scan statistic. Two types of statistically significant hotspots were detected; stable hotspots of asymptomatic parasitaemia and unstable hotspots of febrile malaria. The stable hotspots were associated with higher average AMA-1 antibody titres than the unstable clusters (optical density [OD] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.47 versus OD = 1.1, 95% CI 0.88–1.33) and lower mean ages of febrile malaria episodes (5.8 y, 95% CI 5.6–6.0 versus 5.91 y, 95% CI 5.7–6.1). A falling gradient of febrile malaria incidence was identified in the penumbrae of both hotspots. Hotspots were associated with AMA-1 titres, but not seroconversion rates. In order to target control measures, homesteads at risk of febrile malaria could be predicted by identifying the 20% of homesteads that experienced an episode of febrile malaria during one month in the dry season. That 20% subsequently experienced 65% of all febrile malaria episodes during the following year. A definition based on remote sensing data was 81% sensitive and 63% specific for the stable hotspots of asymptomatic malaria. Conclusions Hotspots of asymptomatic parasitaemia are stable over time, but hotspots of febrile malaria are unstable. This finding may be because immunity offsets the high rate of febrile malaria that might otherwise result in stable hotspots, whereas unstable hotspots necessarily affect a population with less prior exposure to malaria. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary, Editors' Summary Background Malaria, a mosquito-borne parasitic disease, is a major global public-health problem. About half the world's population is at risk of malaria and about one million people (mainly children living in sub-Saharan Africa) die each year from the disease. Malaria is transmitted to people through the bite of an infected mosquito. Initially, the parasite replicates inside human liver cells but, about a week after infection, these cells release “merozoites” (one of the life-stages of the parasite), which invade red blood cells. Here, the merozoites replicate rapidly before bursting out after 2–3 days and infecting more red blood cells. The cyclical and massive increase in parasitemia (parasites in the bloodstream) that results from this pattern of replication is responsible for malaria's recurring fevers and can cause life-threatening organ damage and anemia (a lack of red blood cells). Malaria can be prevented by controlling the mosquitoes that spread the parasite and by avoiding mosquito bites. Effective treatment with antimalarial drugs can also reduce malaria transmission. Why Was This Study Done? Like many other infectious diseases, the transmission of malaria is heterogeneous. That is, even in places where malaria is always present, there are “hotspots” of transmission, areas where the risk of catching malaria is particularly high. The existence of these hotspots, which are caused by a combination of genetic factors (for example, host susceptibility to infection) and environmental factors (for example, distance from mosquito breeding sites), reduces the efficacy of control strategies. However, mathematical models suggest that focusing control strategies on transmission hotspots might be an effective way to reduce overall malaria transmission. Efforts have been made to identify such hotspots using environmental data collected by satellites but with limited success. In this study, therefore, the researchers investigate the heterogeneity of malaria transmission in the Kilifi District of Kenya over time by analyzing data collected over up to 12 years (“longitudinal” data) on malaria episodes and parasitemia in three groups (cohorts) of children living in 256 homesteads. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers identified febrile malaria episodes in the homesteads by taking blood from children with fever (febrile children) to analyze for parasitemia. They took blood once a year from all the study participants just before the rainy season (when malaria peaks) to look for symptom-free parasitemia and they also looked for antibodies (proteins made by the immune system that fight disease) against malaria parasites in the blood of the participants. They then used a “spatial scan statistic” to look for heterogeneity of transmission and to identify transmission hotspots (groups of homesteads where the observed incidence of malaria or parasitemia was higher than would be expected if cases were evenly distributed). The researchers identified two types of hotspots—stable hotspots of symptom-free parasitemia that were still hotspots several years later and unstable hotspots of febrile malaria that rarely stayed in the same place for more than a year or two. Children living in the stable hotspots had slightly higher average amounts of antimalaria antibodies and developed malaria at a slightly lower average age than children living in the unstable hotspots. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings show that in Kilifi District, Kenya, hotspots of symptom-free parasitemia are stable over time but hotspots of febrile malaria are unstable. The researchers suggest that rapid acquisition of immunity in the stable hotspots reduces the occurrence of febrile malaria whereas in the unstable hotspots there is a high incidence of febrile malaria because lack of previous exposure to the parasite means there is a low level of immunity. Targeted strategies for malaria control should target both types of hotspots, suggest the researchers. Stable hotspots of symptom-free parasitemia (which can be identified by parasite or antibody surveys or by remote environmental sensing) should be targeted because mosquito dispersion probably increases malaria transmission rates near these hotspots. Unstable hotspots of febrile disease should be targeted to reduce both the burden of disease and transmission in the wider community. Unstable hotspots of febrile malaria, the researchers suggest, could be efficiently identified in Kilifi District (and maybe elsewhere) by determining which homesteads had malaria outbreaks during September (part of the dry season) one year and then focusing control interventions on these homesteads the next year. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000304. Information is available from the World Health Organization on malaria (in several languages) The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provide information on malaria (in English and Spanish) MedlinePlus provides links to additional information on malaria (in English and Spanish) Information is available from the Roll Back Malaria Partnership on the global control of malaria (in English and French) and on malaria in Kenya

BACKGROUND: Febrile malaria is the most common clinical manifestation of P. falciparum infection, and is often the primary endpoint in clinical trials and epidemiological studies. Subjective and objective fevers are both used to define the endpoint, but have not been carefully compared, and the relative incidence of clinical malaria by active and passive case detection is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed data from cohorts under active and passive surveillance, including 19,462 presentations with fever and 5,551 blood tests for asymptomatic parasitaemia. A logistic regression model was used to calculate Malaria Attributable Fractions (MAFs) for various case definitions. Incidences of febrile malaria by active and passive surveillance were compared in a subset of children matched for age and location. RESULTS: Active surveillance identified three times the incidence of clinical malaria as passive surveillance in a subset of children matched for age and location. Objective fever (temperature≥37.5°C) gave consistently higher MAFs than case definitions based on subjective fever. CONCLUSION: The endpoints from active and passive surveillance have high specificity, but the incidence of endpoints is lower on passive surveillance. Subjective fever had low specificity and should not be used in primary endpoint. Passive surveillance will reduce the power of clinical trials but may cost-effectively deliver acceptable sensitivity in studies of large populations.

Background Naturally acquired immunity to malaria may be lost with lack of exposure. Recent heterogeneous reductions in transmission in parts of Africa mean that large populations of previously protected people may lose their immunity while remaining at risk of infection. Methods Using two ethnically similar long-term cohorts of children with historically similar levels of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum who now experience very different levels of exposure, we assessed the effect of decreased parasite exposure on antimalarial immunity. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from children in each cohort were stimulated with P. falciparum and their P. falciparum-specific proliferative and cytokine responses were compared. Results We demonstrate that, while P. falciparum-specific CD4+ T cells are maintained in the absence of exposure, the proliferative capacity of these cells is altered considerably. P. falciparum-specific CD4+ T cells isolated from children previously exposed, but now living in an area of minimal exposure (“historically exposed”) proliferate significantly more upon stimulation than cells isolated from children continually exposed to the parasite. Similarly, PBMCs from historically exposed children expressed higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and lower levels of anti-inflammatory cytokines after stimulation with P. falciparum. Notably, we found a significant positive association between duration since last febrile episode and P. falciparum-specific CD4+ T cell proliferation, with more recent febrile episodes associated with lower proliferation. Conclusion Considered in the context of existing knowledge, these data suggest a model explaining how immunity is lost in absence of continuing exposure to P. falciparum. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0683-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: RTS,S/AS01 E, the most advanced malaria vaccine confers partial immunity. The vaccine-induced pre-erythrocytic immunity reduces exposure to blood-stage parasites, delaying acquisition of antibodies to blood-stage antigens. However, the duration of this effect is unknown. Methods: We measured, by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, IgG-antibodies to 4 Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage antigens (AMA1, MSP142, EBA175, and MSP3) on 314 children randomized to receive RTS,S/AS01 E or Rabies vaccine at 5 – 17 months of age in a phase 2b trial in Kenya, and thereafter participated in a 7-year study of the duration of vaccine immunity. Results: Antibody levels to MSP142, AMA1 and EBA175 were slightly lower among the RTS,S/AS01 E recipients, relative to the Rabies-control vaccinees, during the first 48 months of surveillance. Irrespective of vaccine arm, antibody levels to merozoite antigens were positively associated with the risk for malaria. However, this was only apparent at high levels for EBA175 and AMA1 and was not evident after adjusting for heterogeneity in malaria-exposure. Among children with asymptomatic parasitaemia, antibody levels were associated with reduced clinical malaria. Conclusions: The reduction in levels of antibodies to blood-stage antigens induced by vaccination with RTS,S/AS01 E can last for several years. In absence of asymptomatic infection, anti-merozoite antibody levels were unreliable correlates of clinical immunity.