1. New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32.
- Author
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Kim TH, Yim HJ, Jung YK, Song DS, Yoon EL, Kim HY, Kang SH, Chang Y, Yoo JJ, Jun BG, Lee SW, Park JG, Park JW, Kim SE, Kim TY, Jeong SW, Suk KT, Kim MY, Kim SG, Kim W, Jang JY, Yang JM, and Kim DJ
- Subjects
- Humans, Prognosis, Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic, Retrospective Studies, Prospective Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Hepatitis, Alcoholic complications, Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure complications
- Abstract
Background & Aims: Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH., Methods: We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model., Results: Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively)., Conclusion: There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation., Trial Regestration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011., (© 2023. Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver.)
- Published
- 2024
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