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The mission of policing is “to protect and serve,” but recent events suggest that many Americans, and especially Black Americans, do not feel protected from the police. Understanding police-related fear is important because it may impact civilians’ health, daily lives, and policy attitudes. To examine the prevalence, sources, and consequences of both personal and altruistic fear of the police, we surveyed a nationwide sample (N = 1,150), which included comparable numbers of Black (N = 517) and White (N = 492) respondents. Most White respondents felt safe, but most Black respondents lived in fear of the police killing them and hurting their family members. About half of Black respondents preferred to be robbed or burglarized than to have unprovoked contact with officers. The racial divide in fear was mediated by past experiences with police mistreatment. In turn, fear mediated the effects of race and past mistreatment on support for police defunding and intentions to have “the talk” with family youths about the need to distrust and avoid officers. The deep American racial divide in police-related fear represents a racially disparate health crisis and a primary obstacle to law enforcement’s capacity to serve all communities equitably.

The gun ownership literature is vast, with dozens of studies seeking to explain who owns guns and why. We build on this literature in two key ways. First, we introduce a new variable into the fold: moral concern about harming others. We theorize that this concern actively inhibits gun ownership. Second, we direct theoretical and empirical attention to a predictor of gun ownership that has frequently been overlooked in the contemporary gun literature: childhood socialization. Using data from a national sample of 1,100 adults, we find that moral concerns about harm represent a barrier to gun ownership and limit the number of guns people own. By contrast, childhood socialization has the opposite effect. Furthermore, we find that childhood socialization is not only the strongest predictor of owning guns but also fully mediates the relationship between gender and gun ownership.

Regardless of why it happens, racial discrimination is damaging and unacceptable. Efforts to reduce discrimination, however, are most successful when we understand the mechanisms that give rise to it. Building on the observation that employers are members of the public, we examine two attitudinal mechanisms that may foster discriminatory employment practices in the context of criminal background checks: stereotypes and threat-based animus. First, we estimate public perceptions of arrest prevalence using two nationwide surveys. Next, we experimentally test the effects of two racially threatening primes—Census projections about a coming majority-minority America, and information about the prison population’s racial composition—on attitudes toward hiring job applicants with criminal records. Consistent with statistical discrimination theory, respondents identify black males as having the highest arrest prevalence. Respondents are less accurate, however, when it comes to gender differences: they underestimate arrest prevalence for black, Hispanic, and white males, and tend to overestimate it for females. On the other hand, our experiments provide little evidence of an effect of threat-based animus: racially threatening primes that are influential in other contexts do not significantly impact attitudes about hiring applicants with criminal records.

As protests erupted across the United States in recent years over racialized issues (e.g., Black Lives Matter and Confederate monuments), so too did questions about when and how police should respond. Understanding public attitudes toward protest policing is important for police legitimacy and policy. One theory is that citizens are willing to trade civil liberties, such as the right to assemble, for security, and thus disruptive or dangerous protest tactics should increase support for police control by elevating public fear. Another theory is that citizens view protests through the lens of group position, and thus, they should be more supportive of repression when protest goals conflict with preexisting racial beliefs and threaten racial interests. To test these theories, we embedded an experiment in a nationwide survey fielded in 2020 after George Floyd's killing sparked the broadest protests in U.S. history. We randomized protest tactics (e.g., weapon carrying) and goals, as well as other contextual characteristics (e.g., protest size). We found that the public generally opposed repressive protest policing. Certain protest tactics, however, increased support for repression by elevating fear. Protest goals (e.g., pro-Black Lives Matter and pro-immigrants) also impacted support for repression, but the effect depended on respondents’ racial beliefs. © 2021 American Society of Criminology

Far-right domestic terrorism is a major threat to US national security. Despite this reality, conservative policymakers have downplayed the threat of right-wing violence while arguing that far-left violence (from groups like Antifa) is a more pressing concern. Drawing on attribution theory and research on politically motivated reasoning, we suggest that politics constrain the American public’s understanding of terrorism by shaping casual attributions for it. Using data from an experiment within a national survey (n = 700), we examine how political views moderate attributions made for the actions of far-right, far-left, and Islamist terrorism. We find that causal attributions for terrorism depend on the type of terrorist considered, with external attributions (motivated by injustice or oppression) endorsed most strongly for Islamist terrorists and internal attributions (motivated by hate or evil) endorsed most strongly for far-right terrorists. Furthermore, political views moderate this effect such that people believe terrorism committed by politically aligned groups is motivated less by the internal characteristics of the terrorists and more by external factors. Taken together, these findings may help to explain partisan differences in moral outrage over politically motivated terrorism.

Based on a March 28–29, 2020 MTurk survey (N = 1,000), the current study examined how faith in President Donald Trump’s statements downplaying the risks and his responsibility for the COVID-19 pand...

Public reporting programs such as the “See Something, Say Something” campaign are important counterterrorism measures. Yet public knowledge about terrorism is low, and Americans tend to associate t...

COVID-19 has had unprecedented effects on populations around the world Given the political context of the pandemic and the nation’s response to it, this study sought to assess the extent of Americans’ personal fear about the virus as well as their fear for others (altruistic fear), identify potential predictors of these fears, and examine the mental health impact of heightened COVID-19 fears Overall, a majority of respondents worried about various aspects of the virus, from being exposed to dying, and reported often worrying about others, including family, the elderly, and healthcare professionals Building on the fear of crime literature, we find that certain individuals, including those who believe they are at a high risk of dying from the virus, non-Whites, and those who closely follow news coverage of the pandemic, are likely to experience elevated fear and, possibly, its consequences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Sociological Spectrum is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )

Research Summary: We administered a survey experiment to a national sample of 1068 U S adults in April 2020 to determine the factors that shape support for various policing tactics in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic Respondents were sharply divided in their views about pandemic policing tactics and were least supportive of policies that might limit public access to officers or reduce crime deterrence Information about the health risks to officers, but not to inmates, significantly increased support for “precautionary” policing, but not for “social distance” policing The information effect was modest, but may be larger if the information came from official sources and/or was communicated on multiple occasions Other factors that are associated with attitudes toward pandemic policing include perceptions of procedural justice, altruistic fear, racial resentment, and authoritarianism Policy Implications: When considered together with other evidence, one clear takeaway from our study is that the public values police patrols and wants officers on call, even during pandemics Another is that people who believe the police are procedurally just are more willing to trust officers in times of crisis and to empower them to enforce new laws, such as social distancing ordinances Our results thus support continued procedural justice training for officers A third takeaway is that agencies must proactively communicate with the public about the risks their officers face when responding to public health crises or natural disasters, in addition to how they propose to mitigate those risks They must also be amenable to adjusting in response to community feedback © 2021 American Society of Criminology

Do people think about offending risk in verbal or numerical terms? Does the elicitation method affect reported subjective probabilities? Rational choice models require potential outcomes (e.g., benefits/costs) to be weighted by their probability of occurrence. Indeed, the subjective likelihood of being apprehended is the central construct in criminological deterrence theory—the so-called certainty principle. Yet, extant literature has measured the construct inconsistently and with little attention to potential consequences. Using a series of randomized experiments conducted with nationwide samples of American adults (aged 18 and over), this study examines the degree of correspondence between verbal and numeric measures of apprehension risk, assesses the durability of numeric estimates specifically, and attempts to elicit how respondents naturally think about apprehension risk. The findings suggest that laypeople are somewhat inconsistent in their use of both verbal and numeric descriptors of probability, their numeric estimates of probability are unlikely to be precise or durable, and many seem to prefer thinking of risk in verbal terms (compared to numeric terms). Researchers should consider including both verbal and numeric measures of probability and explore alternative measurement strategies, including anchoring vignettes, which have been valuable in standardizing verbal responses in other disciplines.

After years of decreasing public punitiveness and declining crime rates, politicians are seeking evidence-based crime policies to reduce mass incarceration without increasing crime. One such policy that has been implemented in several US cities is the Operation Peacemaker Fellowship (OPF), which incentivizes conformity and program participation by providing monetary stipends to individuals at risk of violent offending, thereby simultaneously reducing violence and incarceration. Yet, there is no evidence about public support for such policies. Using a nationally representative survey experiment, we examine public support for violence prevention stipends. We employ a referendum-style, contingent valuation design to measure the impact of tax increases versus tax savings on public opinion, and we randomize message framing that emphasizes the stipend program’s risky versus protective features. Both tax changes and risk framing matter. The public is willing to vote for stipends when they reduce taxes and are framed as a method to save lives. Most Republicans oppose stipends under all conditions. Reformers can increase public support for effective, nonpunitive policies that target violent offenders by emphasizing both their economic and social benefits. However, such policies are likely to face consistent opposition from certain portions of the public.

Body-worn cameras (BWC) have diffused rapidly throughout policing as a means of promoting transparency and accountability. Yet, whether to release BWC footage to the public remains largely up to th...

Objectives: The recurring mass murder of students in schools has sparked an intense debate about how best to increase school safety. Because public opinion weighs heavily in this debate, we examine public views on how best to prevent school shootings. We theorize that three moral-altruistic factors are likely to be broadly relevant to public opinion on school safety policies: moral intuitions about harm, anger about school crime, and altruistic fear. Methods: We commissioned YouGov to survey 1,100 Americans to explore support for a range of gun control and school programming policies and willingness to pay for school target hardening. We test the ability of a moral-altruistic model to explain public opinion, while controlling for the major predictors of gun control attitudes found in the social sciences. Results: The public strongly supports policies that restrict who can access guns, expand school anti-bullying and counseling programs, and target-harden schools. While many factors influence attitudes toward gun-related policies specifically, moral-altruistic factors significantly increase support for all three types of school safety policies. Conclusions: The public favors a comprehensive policy response and is willing to pay for it. Support for prevention efforts reflects moral intuitions about harm, anger about school crime, and altruistic fear.

From Columbine to Sandy Hook to Marjory Stoneman Douglas, the American public has repeatedly witnessed the carnage and tragic consequences of mass school shootings. Using a national survey of Ameri...

Ransomware attacks have become a critical security threat worldwide. However, existing research on ransomware has largely ignored public opinion. This initial study identifies patterns in the American public's support for the use of ransomware, specifically when it is framed to provide benefits to others (i.e., in-group members). Drawing on the Robin Hood decision-making literature and Moral Foundations Theory, we offer theoretical predictions regarding ransomware support.In a survey of 1013 Americans, we embedded a split-ballot experiment in which respondents were randomly assigned to indicate their level of support or opposition to one of two sets of six ransomware scenarios. We manipulated the nationality, authority level, and political affiliation of the actors.We find that people are more supportive of ransomware use when the actors are from their own in-group, and the outcomes benefit their in-group members. Also, the more strongly participants endorsed the moral foundations of authority and harm/care, the more supportive they were of the use of ransomware that may benefit others from their in-group.These findings suggest political actors may be able to generate public support for morally questionable actions by emphasizing in-group benefits and the Robin Hood nature of an attack (e.g., outcome-based morality).

This study explores whether Americans’ punitiveness and perceptions of redeemability are shaped more by the type of crime committed or by judgements about an offender’s moral character. Guided by theories of neoliberalism, we focus on laziness as an indicator of flawed character that is independent of criminality. A sentencing vignette experiment administered to a national sample of the U.S. population tested the effects of crime type and a defendant’s employment status, work ethic, and race on respondents’ preferred punishment and perceptions of the defendant’s redeemability. Both crime type and work ethic significantly affect perceived (ir)redeemability and sentencing preferences, but the effects are not identical. Work ethic exerts the largest effect on perceived (ir)redeemability, whereas crime type most strongly influences sentencing preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings for act- vs. person-centered theories of punishment, as well as the role of laziness stigma in social responses to lawbreakers.

The arguments for criminalizing prostitution surround public concerns—moral order, public health, and safety. For this reason, an understanding of attitudes about the nature and consequences of the practice, particularly among American males, the presumed consumers of sex-related exchanges, is needed. Specifically, how do contextual beliefs about the nature of prostitution (e.g., negative health effects, victimization risk, age of entry) shape policy preferences regarding prostitution? Data from a nationally representative survey developed to solicit sensitive information are utilized to assess these attitudes among a large sample of American men ( N = 2,525). Results show that paradoxically most men approve of legalizing commercial sex exchange, even while believing the practice harms prostitutes by increasing victimization risk and reducing their overall well-being. Multivariate analysis indicates divides in opinion regarding legalization support. Implications are discussed.

School shootings are one of the most salient social problems in America. Most prior research in this area has focused on identifying their causes and evaluating preventive school safety measures. A...

Prior research suggests that exposure to adverse news stories involving the police negatively impacts consumers’ attitudes toward these actors. Yet, most investigations have neglected to examine co...

Objectives: Growing evidence indicates that criminologists should incorporate emotional states, such as fear, into standard deterrence frameworks. Within the fear of crime literature, there is empirical support for the “sensitivity to risk” model, which posits perceived victimization control and severity drive certainty perceptions, and these cognitions, in turn, drive fear of crime. We apply this logic to offender decision-making. Methods: Using a sample of young adults ( N = 829), an anonymous online survey, and path analysis, this study investigates an expanded model of deterrence. Results: Perceived control over apprehension directly reduced perceptions of the certainty of being apprehended. Perceived severity was both directly and indirectly, through perceived certainty, associated with greater fear of apprehension. Fear of apprehension is negatively associated with reported criminal propensity, and the effects of cognitive judgments of control, severity, and certainty have an indirect effect on reported criminal propensity via fear of apprehension. Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the need to better understand the psychological and emotional aspects of deterrence. Individuals do not simply consult their preformed certainty perceptions when considering crime. Identifying all of the relevant cognitions and the emotions is critical for advancing criminological theories and improving crime policies.

Similar to researchers in other disciplines, criminologists increasingly are using online crowdsourcing and opt-in panels for sampling, because of their low cost and convenience. However, online non-probability samples’ “fitness for use” will depend on the inference type and outcome variables of interest. Many studies use these samples to analyze relationships between variables. We explain how selection bias—when selection is a collider variable—and effect heterogeneity may undermine, respectively, the internal and external validity of relational inferences from crowdsourced and opt-in samples. We then examine whether such samples yield generalizable inferences about the correlates of criminal justice attitudes specifically. We compare multivariate regression results from five online non-probability samples drawn either from Amazon Mechanical Turk or an opt-in panel to those from the General Social Survey (GSS). The online samples include more than 4500 respondents nationally and four outcome variables measuring criminal justice attitudes. We estimate identical models for the online non-probability and GSS samples. Regression coefficients in the online samples are normally in the same direction as the GSS coefficients, especially when they are statistically significant, but they differ considerably in magnitude; more than half (54%) fall outside the GSS’s 95% confidence interval. Online non-probability samples appear useful for estimating the direction but not the magnitude of relationships between variables, at least absent effective model-based adjustments. However, adjusting only for demographics, either through weighting or statistical control, is insufficient. We recommend that researchers conduct both a provisional generalizability check and a model-specification test before using these samples to make relational inferences.

Scholars have long argued that behaviors and objects associated with criminally stereotyped minority groups can themselves become stereotyped and criminalized, leading to increased punitiveness. Yet, this extended criminalization hypothesis requires theoretical development and direct empirical investigation. To address this issue, we seek to test the concept of extended criminalization, which posits that behaviors associated with racial and ethnic groups accentuate and aggrandize perceived threat of minority groups through a reinforcing process. We examine the extended criminalization hypothesis in the context of breed-specific legislation (BSL). Using data from a survey-based experiment conducted with a sample of young adults from two universities ( N = 525), we test the effects of racial priming on support for laws banning pit bulls. Findings from the experimental manipulation are supplemented with observational findings using measures of racial stereotypes of pit bull owners and breeders. Respondents in the treatment and control groups did not significantly differ in their likelihood of supporting BSL, and the same was true when analyzing Whites separately. The observational findings were consistent with the experimental findings. The findings do not support the extended criminalization hypotheses. Neither racial priming nor stereotypes of pit bull owners and breeders were associated with support for BSL. We outline additional avenues for research on the extended criminalization hypothesis.

Much prior research has examined the sources of individuals’ attitudes toward the application of punishment via the justice system. Some findings from this literature suggest that punitive attitudes are expressive, retributive, and closely connected to racial resentment. Other research, however, emphasizes that these sentiments are instrumental, utilitarian, and associated with the management of perceived risk. To date, little research has explored public attitudes regarding employment as a reentry barrier, and it is unclear which of these perspectives is more salient for understanding support for employers’ use of criminal records in hiring decision-making. Using survey data on a national sample of American adults ( N = 1,202), the current study finds stronger support for an instrumental model than an expressive model.

Objectives: Democratic policing involves an ongoing dialogue between officers and citizens about what it means to wield legitimate authority. Most of the criminological literature on police legitimacy has focused on citizens’ perceptions of this dialogue—that is, audience legitimacy. Consequently, we know little about how officers perceive their legitimacy in the eyes of the public and the antecedents of such perceptions. Pulling together separate strands of literature pertaining to citizen demeanor, hostile media perceptions, and danger perception theory, we propose and test a theoretical model of perceived audience legitimacy. Method: We conducted two separate studies: the first a survey of 546 officers working at a southern U.S. agency and the second a survey of a national probability sample of 665 executives and high-ranking officers. Results: Local violent crime rates, but not minority group size or growth, are associated with lower perceived audience legitimacy. Additionally, recent experiences with citizen disrespect and global perceptions of citizen animus are both inversely associated with perceived audience legitimacy. The perceived hostility of local, but not national, media coverage is also associated with lower perceived audience legitimacy. Conclusions: Our results suggest a need for additional research that explores whether the antecedents of audience legitimacy indirectly affect police behaviors, like the use of force.

Purpose Estimating the size of the sex buyer market in the United States has been stymied by methodological and sampling challenges. Given known methodological issues in self-reporting and the sensitive nature of purchasing sex, current research faces challenges in providing estimates of demand for purchasing sex. This study used a unique approach to estimate the prevalence of sex buying by men over the age of 18 in the United States. Methods This study employed a double list experiment and a direct ask question to a nationally representative sample of 2525 adult males to estimate the size of the sex buyer market in the United States. Results The double list experiment found the prevalence of sex purchasing is roughly 1 of every 50 adult males in the U.S. (2%) over the 3 years. The direct ask questions found that roughly 1 of every 25 males in the U.S. (4%) had purchased sex in the past 3 years. How they purchased and who they purchased sex from was also explored. A total of 80 respondents reported buying sex during the past 3 years. They spent an average of $120 for their most recent sex-buying encounter. Most sex buyers reported buying sex from an offline venue (street, bar, or massage parlor) and 81% purchased sex from a female. Applying the estimate of sex buying behavior to the general male population in the U.S. results in approximately 4 million men over the age of 18 purchasing sex the past 3 years. Conclusions The findings from both the double list experiment and the direct ask question indicate that buying sex is a relatively rare phenomenon among adult males, however, when accounting for multiple purchases and extrapolating to the entire population the estimated purchases is in the millions. Applying the double list experiment and a direct ask question to a nationally representative sample provides a new way to capture estimates while addressing some of the limitations of previous methods. Such findings have implications for both the criminal justice and public health sectors.

Fields closely related to empirical legal research (ELR) are enhancing their methods to improve the credibility of their findings. This includes making data, analysis codes and other materials openly available on digital repositories and preregistering studies. There are numerous benefits to these practices, such as research being easier to find and access through digital research methods. However, ELR appears to be lagging cognate fields. This may be partly due to a lack of field-specific meta-research and guidance. We sought to fill that gap by first evaluating credibility indicators in ELR, including a review of guidelines for legal journals. This review finds considerable room for improvement in how law journals regulate ELR. The remainder of the article provides practical guidance for the field. We start with general recommendations for empirical legal researchers and then turn to recommendations aimed at three commonly used empirical legal methods: content analyses of judicial decisions, surveys and qualitative studies. We end with suggestions for journals and law schools.

This study explores the moralization of purity and perceptions of harm as constraints on sex buying among men. Purchasing sex has long been considered an offense against public morality. While personal morality provides a powerful constraint on offending, and people may vary in the extent to which they experience moral intuitions about bodily and spiritual purity, research has so far neglected the role of purity moralization in understanding sex buying behavior. We hypothesize specifically that moral intuitions about purity constrain sex buying by leading people to perceive it as inherently wrong and by eliciting perceptions that sex buying is harmful to prostitutes. We test these hypotheses in a nationally representative survey of U.S. men ( N = 2,525). Results indicate that purity moralization is associated with reduced sex buying, and that this relationship is mediated fully by perceptions of sex buying as harming prostitutes.

Following George Floyd's killing in May 2020, Black Lives Matter (BLM) protesters called for police reform in the largest and most diverse protests in U.S. history. The police frequently responded to BLM protesters with force, raising the question of how protest policing may impact public attitudes toward the police. We examined this issue using data from a survey of voters in Portland, Oregon, which was conducted before the November 2020 election, when police reform was on the local ballot. We tested an extended version of the process-based model, contextualized in light of the dialogic model of legitimacy and scholarship on collective action frames. We found that 1) the perception that police have responded inappropriately to protesters is associated with voters’ support for police reform, even controlling for attitudes toward BLM, and 2) this association is indirect through the resonance of pro- versus anti-reform frames. Findings suggest that inappropriate protest policing may be the straw that breaks the camel's back, increasing the resonance of pro-reform frames, reducing the resonance of anti-reform frames, and motivating voters to vote for reform.

Objectives. Questionable research practices (QRPs) lead to incorrect research results and contribute to irreproducibility in science. Researchers and institutions have proposed open science practices (OSPs) to improve the detectability of QRPs and the credibility of science. We examine the prevalence of QRPs and OSPs in criminology, and researchers’ opinions of those practices.Methods. We administered an anonymous survey to authors of articles published in criminology journals. Respondents self-reported their own use of 10 QRPs and 5 OSPs. They also estimated the prevalence of use by others, and reported their attitudes toward the practices. Results. QRPs and OSPs are both common in quantitative criminology, about as common as they are in other fields. Criminologists who responded to our survey support using QRPs in some circumstances, but are even more supportive of using OSPs. We did not detect a significant relationship between methodological training and either QRP or OSP use. Support for QRPs is negatively and significantly associated with support for OSPs. Perceived prevalence estimates for some practices resembled a uniform distribution, suggesting criminologists have little knowledge of the proportion of researchers that engage in certain questionable practices.Conclusions. Most quantitative criminologists in our sample use QRPs, and many use multiple QRPs. The substantial prevalence of QRPs raises questions about the validity and reproducibility of published criminological research. We found promising levels of OSP use, albeit at levels lagging what researchers endorse. The findings thus suggest that additional reforms are needed to decrease QRP use and increase the use of OSPs.

Objectives: This experiment addressed whether, when administering a survey to police managers, it is best to measure organizational justice using attitudinal questions tapping into perceived importance or behavioral self-reports. Methods: We administered a survey to a national probability sample of police executives using a split-ballot experimental design, where respondents randomly received items measuring either (a) the perceived importance of organizational justice or (b) the self-reported usage of organizational justice. Results: Perceived importance of organizational justice was not significantly associated with the perceived quality of relationships with subordinates. However, actual usage of organizational justice was, increasing the perceived quality of relationships (b = .554, p < .001). Conclusions: Our results suggest that: 1) the measurement of organizational justice matters, and 2) mangers who believe organizational justice is important still sometimes fail to use it. Future research should measure the concept using behavioral reports and should seek to explain this importance-usage gap.

People overestimate the risk of some events, such as terrorist attacks and immigrant crimes, but not of others. Stereotype amplification theory indicates that politicized, out-group stereotypes may be to blame. We examine Americans’ perceptions of the risk that different forms of violence—out-group, in-group and non-racialized—will occur in their local communities. We hypothesize that negative stereotypes of immigrants and Muslims will increase the perceived risk of out-group violence but not of other forms of violence. Analyses of original survey data from a sample of 1,068 Americans reveal four findings: (1) most Americans accurately perceive home-grown violence to be more likely than violence by foreigners, (2) political identification and ideology strongly predict out-group stereotypes, (3) out-group stereotypes strongly predict the perceived risk of out-group violence but are not significantly associated with risk perceptions for other forms of violence and (4) vulnerability factors predict risk perceptions for all forms of violence.

PURPOSE: Despite the growing popularity of online opt-in samples in criminology, recent work shows that resultant findings often do not generalize. Not all opt-in samples are alike, however, and matching may improve data quality. Replicating and extending prior work, we compare the generalizability of relational inferences from unmatched and matched opt-in samples. METHODS: Estimating identical models for four criminal justice outcomes, we compare multivariate regression results from national matched (YouGov) and unmatched (MTurk) opt-in samples to those from the General Social Survey (GSS). RESULTS: YouGov coefficients are almost always in the same direction as GSS coefficients, especially when statistically significant, and are mostly of a similar magnitude; less than 10% of the YouGov and GSS coefficients differ significantly. By contrast, MTurk coefficients are more likely to be in the wrong direction, more likely to be much larger or smaller, and are over twice as likely to differ significantly from GSS coefficients. CONCLUSIONS: Matched opt-in samples provide a relatively inexpensive data source for criminal justice researchers, compared to probability samples, and also appear to carry a smaller generalizability penalty than unmatched samples. Our study suggests relational inferences from matched opt-in samples are more likely to generalize than those from unmatched samples.

This article reviews evidence for the effects of public opinion on court decision-making, capital punishment policy and use, correctional expenditures, and incarceration rates. It also assesses evidence about the factors explaining changes over time in public support for punitive crime policies. Most of this evidence originates from outside of our discipline. I identify two reasons that criminologists have not made more progress toward understanding the opinion-policy relationship. One is an unfamiliarity with important theoretical and empirical developments in political science pertaining to public policy mood, parallel opinion change, majoritarian congruence, and dynamic representation. Another is our overreliance on cross-sectional studies and preoccupation with comparing support levels elicited with different questions (global versus specific) and under different conditions (uninformed versus informed). I show how the resultant findings have contributed to misunderstandings about the nature of public opinion and created a false summit in our analysis of the opinion-policy relationship.