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Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

ABSTRACT: Feed efficiency has become an increasingly important research topic in recent years. As feed costs rise and the environmental impacts of agriculture become more apparent, improving the efficiency with which dairy cows convert feed to milk is increasingly important. However, feed intake is expensive to measure accurately on large populations, making the inclusion of this trait in breeding programs difficult. Understanding how the genetic parameters of feed efficiency and traits related to feed efficiency vary throughout the lactation period is valuable to gain understanding into the genetic nature of feed efficiency. This study used 121,226 dry matter intake (DMI) records, 120,500 energy-corrected milk (ECM) records, and 98,975 metabolic body weight (MBW) records, collected on 7,440 first-lactation Holstein cows from 6 countries (Canada, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States), from January 2003 to February 2022. Genetic parameters were estimated using a multiple-trait random regression model with a fourth-order Legendre polynomial for all traits. Weekly phenotypes for DMI were re-parameterized using linear regressions of DMI on ECM and MBW, creating a measure of feed efficiency that was genetically corrected for ECM and MBW, referred to as genomic residual feed intake (gRFI). Heritability (SE) estimates varied from 0.15 (0.03) to 0.29 (0.02) for DMI, 0.24 (0.01) to 0.29 (0.03) for ECM, 0.55 (0.03) to 0.83 (0.05) for MBW, and 0.12 (0.03) to 0.22 (0.06) for gRFI. In general, heritability estimates were lower in the first stage of lactation compared with the later stages of lactation. Additive genetic correlations between weeks of lactation varied, with stronger correlations between weeks of lactation that were close together. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the change in genetic parameters across the first lactation, providing insight into potential selection strategies to include feed efficiency in breeding programs.

ABSTRACT: Residual feed intake is viewed as an important trait in breeding programs that could be used to enhance genetic progress in feed efficiency. In particular, improving feed efficiency could improve both economic and environmental sustainability in the dairy cattle industry. However, data remain sparse, limiting the development of reliable genomic evaluations across lactation and parity for residual feed intake. Here, we estimated novel genetic parameters for genetic residual feed intake (gRFI) across the first, second, and third parity, using a random regression model. Research data on the measured feed intake, milk production, and body weight of 7,379 cows (271,080 records) from 6 countries in 2 continents were shared through the Horizon 2020 project Genomic Management Tools to Optimise Resilience and Efficiency, and the Resilient Dairy Genome Project. The countries included Canada (1,053 cows with 47,130 weekly records), Denmark (1,045 cows with 72,760 weekly records), France (329 cows with 16,888 weekly records), Germany (938 cows with 32,614 weekly records), the Netherlands (2,051 cows with 57,830 weekly records), and United States (1,963 cows with 43,858 weekly records). Each trait had variance components estimated from first to third parity, using a random regression model across countries. Genetic residual feed intake was found to be heritable in all 3 parities, with first parity being predominant (range: 22–34%). Genetic residual feed intake was highly correlated across parities for mid- to late lactation; however, genetic correlation across parities was lower during early lactation, especially when comparing first and third parity. We estimated a genetic correlation of 0.77 ± 0.37 between North America and Europe for dry matter intake at first parity. Published literature on genetic correlations between high input countries/continents for dry matter intake support a high genetic correlation for dry matter intake. In conclusion, our results demonstrate the feasibility of estimating variance components for gRFI across parities, and the value of sharing data on scarce phenotypes across countries. These results can potentially be implemented in genetic evaluations for gRFI in dairy cattle.

Satellite data records of stratospheric water vapour have been compared to balloon-borne frost point hygrometer (FP) profiles that are coincident in space and time. The satellite data records of 15 different instruments cover water vapour data available from January 2000 through December 2016. The hygrometer data are from 27 stations all over the world in the same period. For the comparison, real or constructed averaging kernels have been applied to the hygrometer profiles to adjust them to the measurement characteristics of the satellite instruments. For bias evaluation, we have compared satellite profiles averaged over the available temporal coverage to the means of coincident FP profiles for individual stations. For drift determinations, we analysed time series of relative differences between spatiotemporally coincident satellite and hygrometer profiles at individual stations. In a synopsis we have also calculated the mean biases and drifts (and their respective uncertainties) for each satellite record over all applicable hygrometer stations in three altitude ranges (10–30 hPa, 30–100 hPa, and 100 hPa to tropopause). Most of the satellite data have biases % and average drifts % yr−1 in at least one of the respective altitude ranges. Virtually all biases are significant in the sense that their uncertainty range in terms of twice the standard error of the mean does not include zero. Statistically significant drifts (95 % confidence) are detected for 35 % of the ≈ 1200 time series of relative differences between satellites and hygrometers.

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

Nineteen limb-viewing data sets (occultation, passive thermal, and UV scattering) and two nadir upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data sets are intercompared and also compared to frost-point hygrometer balloon sondes. The upper troposphere considered here covers the pressure range from 300–100 hPa. UTH is a challenging measurement, because concentrations vary between 2–1000 ppmv (parts per million by volume), with sharp changes in vertical gradients near the tropopause. Cloudiness in this region also makes the measurement challenging. The atmospheric temperature is also highly variable ranging from 180–250 K. The assessment of satellite-measured UTH is based on coincident comparisons with balloon frost-point hygrometer sondes, multi-month mapped comparisons, zonal mean time series comparisons, and coincident satellite-to-satellite comparisons. While the satellite fields show similar features in maps and time series, quantitatively they can differ by a factor of 2 in concentration, with strong dependencies on the amount of UTH. Additionally, time-lag response-corrected Vaisala RS92 radiosondes are compared to satellites and the frost-point hygrometer measurements. In summary, most satellite data sets reviewed here show on average ∼30 % agreement amongst themselves and frost-point data but with an additional ∼30 % variability about the mean bias. The Vaisala RS92 sonde, even with a time-lag correction, shows poor behavior for pressures less than 200 hPa.

This paper complements a series of now four publications that document the release of the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0. It describes new diagnostics on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) which are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The second release of this tool aims to support the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). Furthermore, datasets from other models and observations can be analysed. The diagnostics for the hydrological cycle include several precipitation and drought indices, as well as hydroclimatic intensity and indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The latter are also used for identification of extreme events, for impact assessment, and to project and characterize the risks and impacts of climate change for natural and socio-economic systems. Further impact assessment diagnostics are included to compute daily temperature ranges and capacity factors for wind and solar energy generation. Regional scales can be analysed with new diagnostics implemented for selected regions and stochastic downscaling. ESMValTool v2.0 also includes diagnostics to analyse large multi-model ensembles including grouping and selecting ensemble members by user-specified criteria. Here, we present examples for their capabilities based on the well-established CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset.

The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative (SPARC, 2017) performed the first comprehensive assessment of currently available stratospheric composition measurements obtained from an international suite of space-based limb sounders. The initiative's main objectives were (1) to assess the state of data availability, (2) to compile time series of vertically resolved, zonal monthly mean trace gas and aerosol fields, and (3) to perform a detailed intercomparison of these time series, summarizing useful information and highlighting differences among datasets. The datasets extend over the region from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere (300–0.1 hPa) and are provided on a common latitude–pressure grid. They cover 26 different atmospheric constituents including the stratospheric trace gases of primary interest, ozone (O3) and water vapor (H2O), major long-lived trace gases (SF6, N2O, HF, CCl3F, CCl2F2, NOy), trace gases with intermediate lifetimes (HCl, CH4, CO, HNO3), and shorter-lived trace gases important to stratospheric chemistry including nitrogen-containing species (NO, NO2, NOx, N2O5, HNO4), halogens (BrO, ClO, ClONO2, HOCl), and other minor species (OH, HO2, CH2O, CH3CN), and aerosol. This overview of the SPARC Data Initiative introduces the updated versions of the SPARC Data Initiative time series for the extended time period 1979–2018 and provides information on the satellite instruments included in the assessment: LIMS, SAGE I/II/III, HALOE, UARS-MLS, POAM II/III, OSIRIS, SMR, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, SMILES, and OMPS-LP. It describes the Data Initiative's top-down climatological validation approach to compare stratospheric composition measurements based on zonal monthly mean fields, which provides upper bounds to relative inter-instrument biases and an assessment of how well the instruments are able to capture geophysical features of the stratosphere. An update to previously published evaluations of O3 and H2O monthly mean time series is provided. In addition, example trace gas evaluations of methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), a set of nitrogen species (NO, NO2, and HNO3), the reactive nitrogen family (NOy), and hydroperoxyl (HO2) are presented. The results highlight the quality, strengths and weaknesses, and representativeness of the different datasets. As a summary, the current state of our knowledge of stratospheric composition and variability is provided based on the overall consistency between the datasets. As such, the SPARC Data Initiative datasets and evaluations can serve as an atlas or reference of stratospheric composition and variability during the “golden age” of atmospheric limb sounding. The updated SPARC Data Initiative zonal monthly mean time series for each instrument are publicly available and accessible via the Zenodo data archive (Hegglin et al., 2020).

The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for evaluation and analysis of Earth system models (ESMs), is designed to facilitate a more comprehensive and rapid comparison of single or multiple models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ESM results can be compared against observations or reanalysis data as well as against other models including predecessor versions of the same model. The updated and extended version (v2.0) of the ESMValTool includes several new analysis scripts such as large-scale diagnostics for evaluation of ESMs as well as diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, the newly implemented climate metrics such as effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as well as emergent constraints for various climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future projections from ESMs are described and illustrated with examples using results from the well-established model ensemble CMIP5. The emergent constraints implemented include constraints on ECS, snow-albedo effect, climate–carbon cycle feedback, hydrologic cycle intensification, future Indian summer monsoon precipitation and year of disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The diagnostics included in ESMValTool v2.0 to analyze future climate projections from ESMs further include analysis scripts to reproduce selected figures of chapter 12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and various multi-model statistics.

The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility. It consists of (1) an easy-to-install, well-documented Python package providing the core functionalities (ESMValCore) that performs common preprocessing operations and (2) a diagnostic part that includes tailored diagnostics and performance metrics for specific scientific applications. Here we describe large-scale diagnostics of the second major release of the tool that supports the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). ESMValTool v2.0 includes a large collection of diagnostics and performance metrics for atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables for the mean state, trends, and variability. ESMValTool v2.0 also successfully reproduces figures from the evaluation and projections chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and incorporates updates from targeted analysis packages, such as the NCAR Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for the evaluation of modes of variability, the Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo) to evaluate the energetics of the climate system, as well as parts of AutoAssess that contains a mix of top–down performance metrics. The tool has been fully integrated into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure at the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) to provide evaluation results from CMIP6 model simulations shortly after the output is published to the CMIP archive. A result browser has been implemented that enables advanced monitoring of the evaluation results by a broad user community at much faster timescales than what was possible in CMIP5.

Improving measurements of water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is a priority for the atmospheric science community. In this work, UTLS water vapour profiles derived from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite measurements are assessed with coincident ground-based measurements taken at a high Arctic observatory at Eureka, Nunavut, Canada. Additional comparisons to satellite measurements taken by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartography (SCIAMACHY), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) are included to put the ACE Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and ACE Measurement of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation (ACE-MAESTRO) results in context. Measurements of water vapour profiles at Eureka are made using a Bruker 125HR solar absorption Fourier transform infrared spectrometer at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) and radiosondes launched from the Eureka Weather Station. Radiosonde measurements used in this study were processed with software developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) to account for known biases and calculate uncertainties in a well-documented and consistent manner. ACE-FTS measurements were within 11 ppmv (parts per million by volume; 13 %) of 125HR measurements between 6 and 14 km. Between 8 and 14 km ACE-FTS profiles showed a small wet bias of approximately 8 % relative to the 125HR. ACE-FTS water vapour profiles had mean differences of 13 ppmv (32 %) or better when compared to coincident radiosonde profiles at altitudes between 6 and 14 km; mean differences were within 6 ppmv (12 %) between 7 and 11 km. ACE-MAESTRO profiles showed a small dry bias relative to the 125HR of approximately 7 % between 6 and 9 km and 10 % between 10 and 14 km. ACE-MAESTRO profiles agreed within 30 ppmv (36 %) of the radiosondes between 7 and 14 km. ACE-FTS and ACE-MAESTRO comparison results show closer agreement with the radiosondes and PEARL 125HR overall than other satellite datasets – except for AIRS. Close agreement was observed between AIRS and the 125HR and radiosonde measurements, with mean differences within 5 % and correlation coefficients above 0.83 in the troposphere between 1 and 7 km. Comparisons to MLS at altitudes around 10 km showed a dry bias, e.g. mean differences between MLS and radiosondes were −25.6 %. SCIAMACHY comparisons were very limited due to minimal overlap between the vertical extent of the measurements. TES had no temporal overlap with the radiosonde dataset used in this study. Comparisons between TES and the 125HR showed a wet bias of approximately 25 % in the UTLS and mean differences within 14 % below 5 km.

Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), profile-to-profile comparisons of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour were performed by considering 33 data sets derived from satellite observations of 15 different instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a picture of the typical biases and drifts in the observational database and to identify data-set-specific problems. The observational database typically exhibits the largest biases below 70 hPa, both in absolute and relative terms. The smallest biases are often found between 50 and 5 hPa. Typically, they range from 0.25 to 0.5 ppmv (5 % to 10 %) in this altitude region, based on the 50 % percentile over the different comparison results. Higher up, the biases increase with altitude overall but this general behaviour is accompanied by considerable variations. Characteristic values vary between 0.3 and 1 ppmv (4 % to 20 %). Obvious data-set-specific bias issues are found for a number of data sets. In our work we performed a drift analysis for data sets overlapping for a period of at least 36 months. This assessment shows a wide range of drifts among the different data sets that are statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In general, the smallest drifts are found in the altitude range between about 30 and 10 hPa. Histograms considering results from all altitudes indicate the largest occurrence for drifts between 0.05 and 0.3 ppmv decade−1. Comparisons of our drift estimates to those derived from comparisons of zonal mean time series only exhibit statistically significant differences in slightly more than 3 % of the comparisons. Hence, drift estimates from profile-to-profile and zonal mean time series comparisons are largely interchangeable. As for the biases, a number of data sets exhibit prominent drift issues. In our analyses we found that the large number of MIPAS data sets included in the assessment affects our general results as well as the bias summaries we provide for the individual data sets. This is because these data sets exhibit a relative similarity with respect to the remaining data sets, despite the fact that they are based on different measurement modes and different processors implementing different retrieval choices. Because of that, we have by default considered an aggregation of the comparison results obtained from MIPAS data sets. Results without this aggregation are provided on multiple occasions to characterise the effects due to the numerous MIPAS data sets. Among other effects, they cause a reduction of the typical biases in the observational database.

Time series of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour using 33 data sets from 15 different satellite instruments were compared in the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II). This comparison aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database that can be considered in the future in observational and modelling studies, e.g addressing stratospheric water vapour trends. The time series comparisons are presented for the three latitude bands, the Antarctic (80°–70° S), the tropics (15° S–15° N) and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (50°–60° N) at four different altitudes (0.1, 3, 10 and 80 hPa) covering the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The combined temporal coverage of observations from the 15 satellite instruments allowed the consideration of the time period 1986–2014. In addition to the qualitative comparison of the time series, the agreement of the data sets is assessed quantitatively in the form of the spread (i.e. the difference between the maximum and minimum volume mixing ratios among the data sets), the (Pearson) correlation coefficient and the drift (i.e. linear changes of the difference between time series over time). Generally, good agreement between the time series was found in the middle stratosphere while larger differences were found in the lower mesosphere and near the tropopause. Concerning the latitude bands, the largest differences were found in the Antarctic while the best agreement was found for the tropics. From our assessment we find that most data sets can be considered in future observational and modelling studies, e.g. addressing stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour variability and trends, if data set specific characteristics (e.g. drift) and restrictions (e.g. temporal and spatial coverage) are taken into account.

An improved stratospheric water vapour data set has been retrieved from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT solar occultation measurements. It is similar to that successfully applied to methane and carbon dioxide. There is now a consistent set of data products for the three constituents covering the altitudes 17–45 km, the latitude range between about 50 and 70° N, and the period August 2002 to April 2012. The new water vapour concentration profiles agree with collocated results from ACE-FTS and MLS/Aura to within ∼ 5 %. A significant positive linear change in water vapour for the time 2003–2011 is observed at lower stratospheric altitudes with a value of about 0.015 ± 0.008 ppmv year−1 around 17 km. Between 30 and 37 km the changes become significantly negative (about −0.01 ± 0.008 ppmv year−1); all errors are 2σ values. The combined analysis of the SCIAMACHY methane and water vapour time series shows the expected anti-correlation between stratospheric methane and water vapour and a clear temporal variation related to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Above about 20 km most of the additional water vapour is attributed to the oxidation of methane. In addition short-term fluctuations and longer-term variations on a timescale of 5–6 years are observed. The SCIAMACHY data confirm that at lower altitudes the amount of water vapour and methane are transported from the tropics to higher latitudes via the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation.

In the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation in stratospheric and lower mesospheric water were compared using 30 data sets from 13 different satellite instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database which can be considered in subsequent observational and modelling studies. For the amplitudes, a good agreement of their latitude and altitude distribution was found. Quantitatively there were differences in particular at high latitudes, close to the tropopause and in the lower mesosphere. In these regions, the standard deviation over all data sets typically exceeded 0.2 ppmv for the annual variation and 0.1 ppmv for the semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation. For the phase, larger differences between the data sets were found in the lower mesosphere. Generally the smallest phase uncertainties can be observed in regions where the amplitude of the variability is large. The standard deviations of the phases for all data sets were typically smaller than a month for the annual and semi-annual variation and smaller than 5 months for the quasi-biennial variation. The amplitude and phase differences among the data sets are caused by a combination of factors. In general, differences in the temporal variation of systematic errors and in the observational sampling play a dominant role. In addition, differences in the vertical resolution of the data, the considered time periods and influences of clouds, aerosols as well as non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects cause differences between the individual data sets.

More than a decade ago it was suggested that a cooling of stratospheric temperatures by 1 K or an increase of 1 ppmv of stratospheric water vapour could promote denitrification, the permanent removal of nitrogen species from the stratosphere by solid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. In fact, during the two Arctic winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 the strongest denitrification in the recent decade was observed. Sensitivity studies along air parcel trajectories are performed to test how a future stratospheric water vapour (H2O) increase of 1 ppmv or a temperature decrease of 1 K would affect PSC formation. We perform our study based on measurements made during the Arctic winter 2010/11. Air parcel trajectories were calculated 6 days backward in time based on PSCs detected by CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite observations). The sensitivity study was performed on single trajectories as well as on a trajectory ensemble. The sensitivity study shows a clear prolongation of the potential for PSC formation and PSC existence when the temperature in the stratosphere is decreased by 1 K and water vapour is increased by 1 ppmv. Based on 15 years of satellite measurements (2000–2014) from UARS/HALOE, Envisat/MIPAS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, Envisat/SCIAMACHY and SCISAT/ACE-FTS it is further investigated if there is a decrease in temperature and/or increase of water vapour (H2O) observed in the polar regions similar to that observed at midlatitudes and in the tropics. Performing linear regression analyses we derive from the Envisat/MIPAS (2002–2012) and Aura/MLS (2004–2014) observations predominantly positive changes in the potential temperature range 350 to 1000 K. The linear changes in water vapour derived from Envisat/MIPAS observations are largely insignificant, while those from Aura/MLS are mostly significant. For the temperature neither of the two instruments indicate any significant changes. Given the strong inter-annual variation observed in water vapour and particular temperature the severe denitrification observed in 2010/11 cannot be directly related to any changes in water vapour and temperature since the millennium. However, the observations indicate a clear correlation between cold winters and enhanced water vapour mixing ratios. This indicates a connection between dynamical and radiative processes that govern water vapour and temperature in the Arctic lower stratosphere.

The SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) aboard the Envisat satellite provided measurements from August 2002 until April 2012. SCIAMACHY measured the scattered or direct sunlight using different observation geometries. The limb viewing geometry allows the retrieval of water vapour at about 10–25 km height from the near-infrared spectral range (1353–1410 nm). These data cover the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), a region in the atmosphere which is of special interest for a variety of dynamical and chemical processes as well as for the radiative forcing. Here, the latest data version of water vapour (V3.01) from SCIAMACHY limb measurements is presented and validated by comparisons with data sets from other satellite and in situ measurements. Considering retrieval tests and the results of these comparisons, the V3.01 data are reliable from about 11 to 23 km and the best results are found in the middle of the profiles between about 14 and 20 km. Above 20 km in the extra tropics V3.01 is drier than all other data sets. Additionally, for altitudes above about 19 km, the vertical resolution of the retrieved profile is not sufficient to resolve signals with a short vertical structure like the tape recorder. Below 14 km, SCIAMACHY water vapour V3.01 is wetter than most collocated data sets, but the high variability of water vapour in the troposphere complicates the comparison. For 14–20 km height, the expected errors from the retrieval and simulations and the mean differences to collocated data sets are usually smaller than 10 % when the resolution of the SCIAMACHY data is taken into account. In general, the temporal changes agree well with collocated data sets except for the Northern Hemisphere extratropical stratosphere, where larger differences are observed. This indicates a possible drift in V3.01 most probably caused by the incomplete treatment of volcanic aerosols in the retrieval. In all other regions a good temporal stability is shown. In the tropical stratosphere an increase in water vapour is found between 2002 and 2012, which is in agreement with other satellite data sets for overlapping time periods.

As part of European Space Agency's (ESA) climate change initiative, high vertical resolution ozone profiles from three instruments all aboard ESA's Envisat (GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY) and ESA's third party missions (OSIRIS, SMR, ACE-FTS) are to be combined in order to create an essential climate variable data record for the last decade. A prerequisite before combining data is the examination of differences and drifts between the data sets. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of ozone profile differences based on pairwise collocated measurements, including the evolution of the differences with time. Such a diagnosis is helpful to identify strengths and weaknesses of each data set that may vary in time and introduce uncertainties in long-term trend estimates. The analysis reveals that the relative drift between the sensors is not statistically significant for most pairs of instruments. The relative drift values can be used to estimate the added uncertainty in physical trends. The added drift uncertainty is estimated at about 3 % decade−1 (1σ). Larger differences and variability in the differences are found in the lowermost stratosphere (below 20 km) and in the mesosphere.

This paper presents a set of observations and analyses of trace gas cross sections in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS). The spatially highly resolved (≈0.5 km vertically and 12.5 km horizontally) cross sections of ozone (O3), nitric acid (HNO3), and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), retrieved from the measurements of the CRISTA-NF infrared limb sounder flown on the Russian M55-Geophysica, revealed intricate layer structures in the region of the subtropical tropopause break. The chemical structure in this region shows an intertwined stratosphere and troposphere. The observed filaments in all discussed trace gases are of a spatial scale of less than 0.8 km vertically and about 200 km horizontally across the jet stream. Backward trajectory calculations confirm that the observed filaments are the result of a breaking Rossby wave in the preceding days. An analysis of the trace gas relationships between PAN and O3 identifies four distinct groups of air mass: polluted subtropical tropospheric air, clean tropical upper-tropospheric air, the lowermost stratospheric air, and air from the deep stratosphere. The tracer relationships further allow the identification of tropospheric, stratospheric, and the transitional air mass made of a mixture of UT and LS air. Mapping of these air mass types onto the geo-spatial location in the cross sections reveals a highly structured extratropical transition layer (ExTL). Finally, the ratio between the measured reactive nitrogen species (HNO3 + PAN + ClONO2) and O3 is analysed to estimate the influence of tropospheric pollution on the extratropical UTLS. In combination, these diagnostics provide the first example of a multi-species two-dimensional picture of the inhomogeneous distribution of chemical species within the UTLS region. Since Rossby wave breaking occurs frequently in the region of the tropopause break, these observed fine-scale filaments are likely ubiquitous in the region. The implications of the layered structure for chemistry and radiation need to be examined, and the representation of this structure in chemistry-climate models is discussed.

SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) lunar occultation measurements have been used to derive vertical profiles of stratospheric water vapor for the Southern Hemisphere in the near infrared (NIR) spectral range of 1350–1420 nm. The focus of this study is to present the retrieval methodology including the sensitivity studies and optimizations for the implementation of the radiative transfer model on SCIAMACHY lunar occultation measurements. The study also includes the validation of the data product with the collocated measurements from two satellite occultation instruments and two instruments measuring in limb geometry. The SCIAMACHY lunar occultation water vapor measurement comparisons with the ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) instrument have shown an agreement of 5% on the average that is well within the reported biases of ACE in the stratosphere. The comparisons with HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) have also shown good results where the agreement between the instruments is within 5%. The validations of the lunar occultation water vapor measurements with MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) instrument are exceptionally good, varying between 1.5 to around 4%. The validations with MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) are in the range of 10%. A validated dataset of water vapor vertical distributions from SCIAMACHY lunar occultation measurements is expected to facilitate the understanding of physical and chemical processes in the southern mid-latitudes and the dynamical processes related to the polar vortex.

Remote sensing measurements from the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescope for the Atmosphere – New Frontiers (CRISTA-NF) during a flight on 29 July 2006 are presented. This flight is part of the AMMA-SCOUT-O3 measurement campaign, where CRISTA-NF was deployed on the high-flying research aircraft M55-Geophysica. The flight path was located over Italy and the Mediterranean Sea and crossed over the subtropical jet twice. Measurements of temperature, and the volume mixing ratios of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), nitric acid (HNO3) and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are available with a vertical resolution of up to 500 m between about 6 to 21 km altitude. CRISTA-NF observes these trace gases simultaneously and provides a quasi-2-D view of the transition region between the troposphere and the stratosphere. The observation of these different trace gases allows to determine tropospheric and stratospheric air masses. As expected, higher abundances are found where the main source of the trace gases is located: in the stratosphere for O3 and in the troposphere for H2O and PAN. Tracer-tracer correlations between O3 and PAN are used to identify the mixed tropospheric and lowermost stratospheric air at the subtropical jet and around the thermal tropopause north of the jet. An intrusion of stratospheric air into the troposphere associated with the subtropical jet is found in the CRISTA-NF observations. The observations indicate that the intrusion is connected to a tropopause fold which is not resolved in the ECMWF analysis data. The intrusion was reproduced in a simulation with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The CLaMS simulation shows, that the lowermost stratospheric air masses in the intrusion where transported along the the subtropical jet. The tropospheric air masses around the intrusion originate from the vicinity of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This work discusses the nature of the observed processes at the subtropical jet based on the CRISTA-NF observations and the CLaMS simulation.

The Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescope for the Atmosphere – New Frontiers (CRISTA-NF), an airborne infrared limb-sounder, was operated aboard the high-flying Russian research aircraft M55-Geophysica during the Arctic RECONCILE campaign from January to March 2010. This paper describes the calibration process of the instrument and the retrieval algorithm employed and then proceeds to present retrieved trace gas volume mixing ratio cross-sections for one specific flight in this campaign. We are able to resolve the uppermost troposphere/lower stratosphere for several trace gas species for several kilometres below the flight altitude (16 to 19 km) with an unprecedented vertical resolution of 400 to 500 m for the limb-sounding technique. The instrument points sideways with respect to the flight direction. Therefore, the observations are also characterised by a rather high horizontal sampling along the flight track, which provides a full vertical profile every ≈15 km. Assembling the vertical trace gas profiles derived from CRISTA-NF measurements to cross-sections shows filaments of vortex and extra-vortex air masses in the vicinity of the polar vortex. During this campaign, the M55-Geophysica carried further instruments enabling trace gas volume mixing ratios derived from CRISTA-NF to be validated by comparing them with measurements by the in situ instruments HAGAR and FOZAN and observations by MIPAS-STR. This validation suggests that the retrieved trace gas volume mixing ratios are both qualitatively and quantitatively reliable.

Lactoferrin (LTF) is a milk glycoprotein favorably associated with the immune system of dairy cows. Somatic cell count is often used as an indicator of mastitis in dairy cows, but knowledge on the milk LTF content could aid in mastitis detection. An inexpensive, rapid and robust method to predict milk LTF is required. The aim of this study was to develop an equation to quantify the LTF content in bovine milk using mid-infrared (MIR) spectrometry. LTF was quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and all milk samples were analyzed by MIR. After discarding samples with a coefficient of variation between 2 ELISA measurements of more than 5% and the spectral outliers, the calibration set consisted of 2499 samples from Belgium (n = 110), Ireland (n = 1658) and Scotland (n = 731). Six statistical methods were evaluated to develop the LTF equation. The best method yielded a cross-validation coefficient of determination for LTF of 0.71 and a cross-validation standard error of 50.55 mg/l of milk. An external validation was undertaken using an additional dataset containing 274 Walloon samples. The validation coefficient of determination was 0.60. To assess the usefulness of the MIR predicted LTF, four logistic regressions using somatic cell score (SCS) and MIR LTF were developed to predict the presence of mastitis. The dataset used to build the logistic regressions consisted of 275 mastitis records and 13 507 MIR data collected in 18 Walloon herds. The LTF and the interaction SCS × LTF effects were significant (P < 0.001 and P = 0.02, respectively). When only the predicted LTF was included in the model, the prediction of the presence of mastitis was not accurate despite a moderate correlation between SCS and LTF (r = 0.54). The specificity and the sensitivity of models were assessed using Walloon data (i.e. internal validation) and data collected from a research herd at the University of Wisconsin – Madison (i.e. 5886 Wisconsin MIR records related to 93 mastistis events – external validation). Model specificity was better when LTF was included in the regression along with SCS when compared with SCS alone. Correct classification of non-mastitis records was 95.44% and 92.05% from Wisconsin and Walloon data, respectively. The same conclusion was formulated from the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. In conclusion, this study confirms the possibility to quantify an LTF indicator from milk MIR spectra. It suggests the usefulness of this indicator associated to SCS to detect the presence of mastitis. Moreover, the knowledge of milk LTF could also improve the milk nutritional quality.

This study describes the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) altitude range from space-borne observations of the scattered solar light made in limb viewing geometry. First results using measurements from SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) aboard ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) are presented here. In previous publications, the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions has been achieved exploiting either the emitted radiance leaving the atmosphere or the transmitted solar radiation. In this study, the scattered solar radiation is used as a new source of information on the water vapor content in the UTLS region. A recently developed retrieval algorithm utilizes the differential absorption structure of the water vapor in 1353–1410 nm spectral range and yields the water vapor content in the 11–25 km altitude range. In this study, the retrieval algorithm is successfully applied to SCIAMACHY limb measurements and the resulting water vapor profiles are compared to in situ balloon-borne observations. The results from both satellite and balloon-borne instruments are found to agree typically within 10 %.

The Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere – New Frontiers (CRISTA-NF) instrument participated in the AMMA-SCOUT-O3 measurement campaign in July and August 2006. The instrument is mounted on the high-flying Russian research aircraft M55-Geophysica and measures limb-emissions in the mid-infrared region in the tangent altitude range of about 6 to 21 km. We present a new retrieval setup which is based on 9 integrated spectral windows allowing to retrieve an extended set of trace gases and temperature fields with high vertical resolution (up to 500 m). Retrieval results are shown for temperature, water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), nitric acid (HNO3), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), and aerosol extinction. Comparisons of temperature, O3, and H2O observations with corresponding in situ measurements on-board M55-Geophysica show reasonable agreement. In particular, CRISTA-NF observations in the vicinity of the aircraft resemble horizontal variations found in the in situ measurements better than corresponding ECMWF fields.