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We discuss the outcomes of our 16th horizon scan of issues that are novel or represent a considerable step-change and have the potential to substantially affect conservation of biological diversity in the coming decade. From an initial 96 topics, our international panel of 32 scientists and practitioners prioritised 15 issues. Technological advances are prominent, including metal and non-metal organic frameworks, deriving rare earth elements from macroalgae, synthetic gene drives in plants, and low-emission cement. We include new insights into accelerated impacts of changes to Antarctic ice masses and air and water quality. We hope that anticipating and mitigating negative impacts, and making best use of new opportunities related to these issues, will contribute to better outcomes for biological diversity., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Resistant to degradation, plastic litter poses a long-term threat to marine ecosystems. Biodegradable materials have been developed to replace conventional plastics, but little is known of their impacts and degradation in marine environments. A 14-week laboratory experiment was conducted to investigate the sorption of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to conventional (polystyrene PS and polyamide PA) and bio-based, biodegradable plastic films (cellulose acetate CA and poly-L-lactic acid PLLA), and to examine the composition of bacterial communities colonizing these materials. Mesoplastics (1 cm 2 ) of these materials were incubated in sediment and seawater collected from two sites in the Gulf of Finland, on the coast of the highly urbanized area of Helsinki, Finland. PS sorbed more PAHs than did the other plastic types at both sites, and the concentration of PAHs was consistently and considerably smaller in plastics than in the sediment. In general, the plastic bacterial biofilms resembled those in the surrounding media (water and/or sediment). However, in the sediment incubations, the community composition on CA diverged from that of the other three plastic types and was enriched with Bacteroidia and potentially cellulolytic Spirochaetia at both sites. The results indicate that certain biodegradable plastics, such as CA, may harbour potential bioplastic-degrading communities and that PAH sorption capacity varies between polymer types. Since biodegradable plastics are presented as replacements for conventional plastics in applications with risk of ending up in the marine environment, the results highlight the need to carefully examine the environmental behaviour of each biodegradable plastic type before they are extensively introduced to the market., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Horizontal and vertical variability of first-year drift-ice bacterial communities was investigated along a North-South transect in the Fram Strait during the winter/spring transition. Two different developmental stages were captured along the transect based on the prevailing environmental conditions and the differences in bacterial community composition. The differences in the bacterial communities were likely driven by the changes in sea-ice algal biomass (2.6-5.6 fold differences in chl-a concentrations). Copiotrophic genera common in late spring/summer sea ice, such as Polaribacter, Octadecabacter and Glaciecola, dominated the bacterial communities, supporting the conclusion that the increase in the sea-ice algal biomass was possibly reflected in the sea-ice bacterial communities. Of the dominating bacterial genera, Polaribacter seemed to benefit the most from the increase in algal biomass, since they covered approximately 39% of the total community at the southernmost stations with higher (>6 μg l(-1) ) chl-a concentrations and only 9% at the northernmost station with lower chl-a concentrations (<6 μg l(-1) ). The sea-ice bacterial communities also varied between the ice horizons at all three stations and thus we recommend that for future studies multiple ice horizons be sampled to cover the variability in sea-ice bacterial communities in spring., (© 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Drift ice, open water and under-ice water bacterial communities covering several developmental stages from open water to thick ice were studied in the northern Baltic Sea. The bacterial communities were assessed with 16S rRNA gene terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism and cloning, together with bacterial abundance and production measurements. In the early stages, open water and pancake ice were dominated by Alphaproteobacteria and Actinobacteria, which are common bacterial groups in Baltic Sea wintertime surface waters. The pancake ice bacterial communities were similar to the open-water communities, suggesting that the parent water determines the sea-ice bacterial community in the early stages of sea-ice formation. In consolidated young and thick ice, the bacterial communities were significantly different from water bacterial communities as well as from each other, indicating community development in Baltic Sea drift ice along with ice-type changes. The thick ice was dominated by typical sea-ice genera from classes Flavobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria, similar to those in polar sea-ice bacterial communities. Since the thick ice bacterial community was remarkably different from that of the parent seawater, results indicate that thick ice bacterial communities were recruited from the rarer members of the seawater bacterial community., (© FEMS 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are macromolecules produced by bacteria as means for storing carbon and energy in intracellular granules. PHAs have physical properties similar to those of plastics and have become of interest to industry as materials for environmentally friendly bioplastic production. There is an ongoing search for new PHA-producing bacterial strains and PHA-synthesizing enzymes tolerating extreme conditions to find ways of producing PHAs at cold temperatures and high solute concentrations. Moreover, the study of PHA producers in the sea-ice biome can aid in understanding the microbial ecology of carbon cycling in ice-associated ecosystems. In this study, PHA producers and PHA synthase genes were examined under the extreme environmental conditions of sea ice and cold seawater to find evidence of PHA production in an environment requiring adaptation to high salinity and cold temperatures. Sea ice and cold estuarine water samples were collected from the northern Baltic Sea and evidence of PHA production was gathered, using microscopy with Nile Blue A staining of PHA-granules and PCR assays detecting PHA-synthesis genes. The PHA granules and PHA synthases were found at all sampling locations, in both sea ice and water, and throughout the sampling period spanning over 10 years. Our study shows, for the first time, that PHA synthesis occurs in Baltic Sea cold-adapted bacteria in their natural environment, which makes the Baltic Sea and its cold environments an interesting choice in the quest for PHA-synthesizing bacteria and synthesis genes.

This study measured the effects of land use on organic matter released to surface waters in a boreal peat catchment using radiocarbon dating of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC and DOC), DOC concentration, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope composition, and optical measurements. Undisturbed sites invariably released modern DOC and POC (<20 years old), and seasonal forcing had little impact on the age distribution. Release of pre-1950 carbon was detected at peat extraction, agricultural and drained sites, and was consistently observed at agricultural and peat extraction areas throughout the seasons. Conventional mean DOC ages reached 3,100 (±122) years before collection. On average, DOC concentrations were up to 38% higher at impacted sites compared to natural areas, but there was no significant effect of land use on surface water DOC concentrations. The study indicates that the true extent of land use impacts is not necessarily detectible through changes in DOC concentration alone: Radiocarbon dating was essential to show that leaching of old soil organic matter at modified sites had replaced, rather than supplemented, the modern DOM that is usually released from pristine peatlands. Relationships between the specific fluorescence intensity of DOM and its radiocarbon age were identified, indicating that optical techniques may provide a method for the detection of changes in DOM age.

The structure of sea-ice bacterial communities is frequently different from that in seawater. Bacterial entrainment in sea ice has been studied with traditional microbiological, bacterial abundance, and bacterial production methods. However, the dynamics of the changes in bacterial communities during the transition from open water to frozen sea ice is largely unknown. Given previous evidence that the nutritional status of the parent water may affect bacterial communities during ice formation, bacterial succession was studied in under ice water and sea ice in two series of mesocosms: the first containing seawater from the North Sea and the second containing seawater enriched with algal-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM). The composition and dynamics of bacterial communities were investigated with terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), and cloning alongside bacterial production (thymidine and leucine uptake) and abundance measurements (measured by flow cytometry). Enriched and active sea-ice bacterial communities developed in ice formed in both unenriched and DOM-enriched seawater (0-6 days). γ-Proteobacteria dominated in the DOM-enriched samples, indicative of their capability for opportunistic growth in sea ice. The bacterial communities in the unenriched waters and ice consisted of the classes Flavobacteria, α- and γ-Proteobacteria, which are frequently found in natural sea ice in polar regions. Furthermore, the results indicate that seawater bacterial communities are able to adapt rapidly to sudden environmental changes when facing considerable physicochemical stress such as the changes in temperature, salinity, nutrient status, and organic matter supply during ice formation., (© 2014 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In search for sea ice bacteria and their phages from the Baltic Sea ice, two ice samples were collected from land-fast ice in a south-west Finland coastal site in February and March 2011. Bacteria were isolated from the melted sea ice samples and phages were screened from the same samples for 43 purified isolates. Plaque-producing phages were found for 15 bacterial isolates at 3 °C. Ten phage isolates were successfully plaque purified and eight of them were chosen for particle purification to analyze their morphology and structural proteins. Phage 1/32 infecting an isolate affiliated to phylum Bacteroidetes (Flavobacterium sp.) is a siphovirus and six phages infecting isolates affiliated to γ-Proteobacteria (Shewanella sp.) hosts were myoviruses. Cross titrations between the hosts showed that all studied phages are host specific. Phage solutions, host growth and phage infection were tested in different temperatures revealing phage temperature tolerance up to 45 °C, whereas phage infection was in most of the cases retarded above 15 °C. This study is the first to report isolation and cultivation of ice bacteria and cold-active phages from the Baltic Sea ice.

We report the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in ecological status classifications. The method presented here can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication or ecological status. The confidence assessment is based on scoring the quality of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. This represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision. Applied to an existing data set used for assessment of eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea (including the Kattegat and Danish Straits) we demonstrate that confidence in the assessment is Good or High in 149 out of 189 areas assessed (79%). Contrary to our expectations, assessments of the open parts of the Baltic Sea have a higher confidence than assessments of coastal waters. We also find that in open waters of the Baltic Sea, some biological indicators have a higher confidence than indicators representing physical-chemical conditions. In coastal waters, phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation and indicators of physical-chemical conditions have a higher confidence than indicators of the quality of benthic invertebrate communities. Our analyses also show that the perceived weaknesses of eutrophication assessments are due more to Low confidence in reference conditions and acceptable deviations, rather than in the monitoring data.

The origin of dissolved organic matter (DOM) within sea ice in coastal waters of the Baltic Sea was investigated using parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis of DOM fluorescence. Sea ice DOM had distinctly different fluorescence characteristics than that of the underlying humic-rich waters and was dominated by protein-like fluorescence signals. PARAFAC analysis identified five fluorescent components, all of which were present in both sea ice and water. Three humic components were negatively correlated to salinity and concluded to be terrestrially derived material. Baltic Sea ice DOM was found to be a mixture of humic material from the underlying water column incorporated during ice formation and autochthonous material produced by organisms within the ice. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) concentrations were correlated to the humic fluorescence, indicating that the majority of the organic carbon and nitrogen in Baltic Sea ice is bound in terrestrial humic material trapped within the ice. This has implications for our understanding of sea ice carbon cycling in regions influenced by riverine input (e.g., Baltic and Arctic coastal waters), as the susceptibility of DOM to degradation and remineralization is largely determined by its source.

This paper compiles biological and chemical sea-ice data from three areas of the Baltic Sea: the Bothnian Bay (Hailuoto, Finland), the Bothnian Sea (Norrby, Sweden), and the Gulf of Finland (Tvärminne, Finland). The data consist mainly of field measurements and experiments conducted during the BIREME project from 2003 to 2006, supplemented with relevant published data. Our main focus was to analyze whether the biological activity in Baltic Sea sea-ice shows clear regional variability. Sea-ice in the Bothnian Bay has low chlorophyll a concentrations, and the bacterial turnover rates are low. However, we have sampled mainly land-fast level first-year sea-ice and apparently missed the most active biological system, which may reside in deformed ice (such as ice ridges). Our limited data set shows high concentrations of algae in keel blocks and keel block interstitial water under the consolidated layer of the pressure ridges in the northernmost part of the Baltic Sea. In land-fast level sea-ice in the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland, the lowermost layer appears to be the center of biological activity, though elevated biomasses can also be found occasionally in the top and interior parts of the ice. Ice algae are light limited during periods of snow cover, and phosphate is generally the limiting nutrient for ice bottom algae. Bacterial growth is evidently controlled by the production of labile dissolved organic matter by algae because low growth rates were recorded in the Bothnian Bay with high concentrations of allochthonous dissolved organic matter. Bacterial communities in the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland show high turnover rates, and activities comparable with those of open water communities during plankton blooms, which implies that sea-ice bacterial communities have high capacity to process matter during the winter period.

Several severe glaciations occurred during the Neoproterozoic eon, and especially near its end in the Cryogenian period (630-850 Ma). While the glacial periods themselves were probably related to the continental positions being appropriate for glaciation, the general coldness of the Neoproterozoic and Cryogenian as a whole lacks specific explanation. The Cryogenian was immediately followed by the Ediacaran biota and Cambrian Metazoan, thus understanding the climate-biosphere interactions around the Cryogenian period is central to understanding the development of complex multicellular life in general. Here we present a feedback mechanism between growth of eukaryotic algal phytoplankton and climate which explains how the Earth system gradually entered the Cryogenian icehouse from the warm Mesoproterozoic greenhouse. The more abrupt termination of the Cryogenian is explained by the increase in gaseous carbon release caused by the more complex planktonic and benthic foodwebs and enhanced by a diversification of metazoan zooplankton and benthic animals. The increased ecosystem complexity caused a decrease in organic carbon burial rate, breaking the algal-climatic feedback loop of the earlier Neoproterozoic eon. Prior to the Neoproterozoic eon, eukaryotic evolution took place in a slow timescale regulated by interior cooling of the Earth and solar brightening. Evolution could have proceeded faster had these geophysical processes been faster. Thus, complex life could theoretically also be found around stars that are more massive than the Sun and have main sequence life shorter than 10 Ga. We also suggest that snow and glaciers are, in a statistical sense, important markers for conditions that may possibly promote the development of complex life on extrasolar planets.

To investigate the responses of Baltic Sea wintertime bacterial communities to changing salinity (5 to 26 practical salinity units), an experimental study was conducted. Bacterial communities of Baltic seawater and sea ice from a coastal site in southwest Finland were used in two batch culture experiments run for 17 or 18 days at 0 degrees C. Bacterial abundance, cell volume, and leucine and thymidine incorporation were measured during the experiments. The bacterial community structure was assessed using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of PCR-amplified partial 16S rRNA genes with sequencing of DGGE bands from initial communities and communities of day 10 or 13 of the experiment. The sea ice-derived bacterial community was metabolically more active than the open-water community at the start of the experiment. Ice-derived bacterial communities were able to adapt to salinity change with smaller effects on physiology and community structure, whereas in the open-water bacterial communities, the bacterial cell volume evolution, bacterial abundance, and community structure responses indicated the presence of salinity stress. The closest relatives for all eight partial 16S rRNA gene sequences obtained were either organisms found in polar sea ice and other cold habitats or those found in summertime Baltic seawater. All sequences except one were associated with the alpha- and gamma-proteobacteria or the Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides group. The overall physiological and community structure responses were parallel in ice-derived and open-water bacterial assemblages, which points to a linkage between community structure and physiology. These results support previous assumptions of the role of salinity fluctuation as a major selective factor shaping the sea ice bacterial community structure.