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The change in heating and cooling needs of Greece in the near future due to the climate change is assessed in the present study. Global and regional climate models and two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the expected change in temperature. A widely used methodology of computation of heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) is employed with a base temperature of 18 °C. In agreement with the expected temperature rise in the near future, an HDD decrease and CDD increase under both RCPs is also expected. The changes under RCP8.5 are stronger compared to those under RCP4.5. Differences related to topography are noted. The HDD decrease is stronger than CDD increase but the relative increase in CDDs is higher than the relative increase in HDDs. The highest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected for February and March while the highest absolute increases in CDDs are expected during the three summer months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Price-Rind 92 parameterization (Price and Rind, 1992) that utilizes cloud top height as predictor for the estimation of lightning density is widely used by modelers in an attempt to forecast electrical activity in thunderstorms. In the present paper new parameterizations for the estimation of lightning density of convective clouds are formulated. LINET lightning data, NWC SAF (Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting and Very Short-Range Forecasting) products and ERA-Interim (ECMWF-Re Analysis) data, covering the summer of 2016 over continental Europe, are used. The proposed models estimate the lightning density of convective clouds, using cloud top height, cloud top pressure and cold cloud depth as predictors. Model efficiency statistics calculated over an independent dataset, suggest that the proposed models can be considered successful over the specific area (continental Europe) and period (summer). The new cloud top height model differs from the PR92 and other parameterizations, which is not an unexpected result, since every model has its own characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. The new parameterizations could be utilized in numerical model simulations to produce quantitative estimations of the amount of strokes over convective areas. Highlights • LINET VLF/LF lightning data, NWC SAF products, and ERA-interim data are used. • The cloud top height/pressure and cold cloud depth relationship to lightning during summer over central Europe is examined. • Uncertainties of the observational data are considered in the modeling process using the Generalized Least Squares technique. • The cross-validation of these models against the control dataset yield low RMSE values, suggesting successful fits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of selected spatiotemporal characteristics of isolated thunderstorms in relation to cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning over part of the eastern Mediterranean is performed. The purpose of the study is twofold: to better understand and improve the basic knowledge of the physical mechanisms of the phenomenon and to offer new means of nowcasting the lightning activity in such thunderstorms. Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Rapid Scan Service (RSS) infrared imagery which offers the option of tracking the examined storms with a time frequency of 5 minutes is one of the two utilized datasets, the other being ZEUS very low frequency (VLF) lightning detection system’s CG discharge data. It was shown that a cloud top temperature of about −20°C is required for the onset of lightning activity. A rapid drop of the cloud-top temperature of about 11°C in 5 minutes on average is observed a few minutes before or during lightning initiation. The maximization of the activity is usually quite close to the overall minimum cloud-top temperature of the cell. A temperature increase of 3.5°C from this overall minimum can mark the end of the activity, which is also associated to the time evolution of the cell’s horizontal extent. In fact, after the cell’s horizontal area stops to increase and/or starts to gradually diminish, CG lightning activity is expected to stop. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The development and efficiency assessment of a lightning activity nowcasting tool is presented. The tool employs MSG IR imagery and real-time lightning data provided by ZEUS network to nowcast the manifestation of lightning activity over the Greek mainland for a time span of 1 h. The efficiency of the tool is assessed for 20 days with widespread lightning activity observed during the warm period of the year through a verification procedure that computes a collection of appropriate statistics for selected areas. The analysis of these statistics shows that the tool estimates successfully almost 80% of the upcoming activity. The false alarm rate is close to 40%, while a small overestimation is evident. Since the adverse effects of a case of missed activity are much more than that of a false alarm, the tool is considered successful and fit for operational use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a methodology for modeling and mapping the seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation climate normals over Greece using several topographical and geographical parameters. Data series of air temperature and precipitation from 84 weather stations distributed evenly over Greece are used along with a set of topographical and geographical parameters extracted with Geographic Information System methods from a digital elevation model (DEM). Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from MODIS Aqua satellite data is also used as a geographical parameter. First, the relation of the two climate elements to the topographical and geographical parameters was investigated based on the Pearson's correlation coefficient to identify the parameters that mostly affect the spatial variability of air temperature and precipitation over Greece. Then a backward stepwise multiple regression was applied to add topographical and geographical parameters as independent variables into a regression equation and develop linear estimation models for both climate parameters. These models are subjected to residual correction using different local interpolation methods, in an attempt to refine the estimated values. The validity of these models is checked through cross-validation error statistics against an independent test subset of station data. The topographical and geographical parameters used as independent variables in the multiple regression models are mostly those found to be strongly correlated with both climatic variables. Models perform best for annual and spring temperatures and effectively for winter and autumn temperatures. Summer temperature spatial variability is rather poorly simulated by the multiple regression model. On the contrary, best performance is obtained for summer and autumn precipitation while the multiple regression model is not able to simulate effectively the spatial distribution of spring precipitation. Results revealed also a relatively weaker model performance for precipitation than that for air temperature probably due to the highly variable nature of precipitation compared to the relatively low spatial variability of air temperature field. The correction of the developed regression models using residuals improved though not significantly the interpolation accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic aspects of extreme European precipitation are studied. Daily pluviometric data from 280 stations across Europe, covering the period from 1958 to 2000, are used. First, the criteria for extreme precipitation cases and episodes are communicated using threshold and spatial definitions. The cases and episodes meeting these criteria are grouped according to their area of appearance. Most of them are located in three major areas: Greece, the Alps, and the Iberian Peninsula. The existence of trends in the annual and seasonal time series of these extreme events is examined. Decreasing trends are found in most of the cases, for Greece, the Iberian Peninsula, and Europe, as a whole. The Alps present a different behavior, with no trend at all in the southern part, and a possible increasing trend in the northern part. Finally, the positive impact of altitude in the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation episodes in Europe is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, atmospheric dynamical processes, which govern the intensification of wildfire activity and the associated increase in low-level ozone concentrations, were studied using images, advanced products and vertical profiles derived from satellite observations. The analyses confirm that the influence of deep stratospheric intrusions, identified in the satellite water vapor imagery, on a fire-risk area contributes to the increase in fire activity. The depth of dry stratospheric intrusions, the associated synoptic evolution and the enhanced low-level ozone concentrations caused by vertical transport of stratospheric air and/or related to biomass burning emissions were analyzed using satellite measurements from SEVIRI, IASI and CrIS instruments, complemented with surface observations near the wildfires' locations. It is shown that the spatial and vertical resolutions of these soundings provide a way of identifying areas of enhanced ozone downwind of wildfires. Influences of the upper-troposphere dynamics and the wind field evolution as factors of uncertainty and complexity in studying the ozone production from wildfire emissions are considered. The combination of satellite soundings and satellite estimations of fire radiative energy and WV imagery may contribute to better understand the ozone enhancement associated with stratospheric intrusion and wildfire emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The applicability of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) derived IWV (Integrated Water Vapor) data, on the nowcasting of high impact precipitation events is examined. High temporal resolution (10-min) rain gauge data provided by the automatic weather stations NOANN network of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) are used. The analysis was performed for selected high precipitation events spanning over an 8-months period during 2018. It was shown that the IWV values present good association to the severity of the precipitation, while the nowcasting of such events may be improved with the combined use of other sources of data, like satellite images or model outputs. The present work was carried out in the frame of the project "BalkanMed real time severe weather service (BeRTISS)" which is co-funded by the European Union and national funds of the participating countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece's capacity for managing extreme wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the discussion of the practice of storm naming that has been initiated in January 2017 for the first time in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Namely the METEO Unit at NOA, taking into consideration that storm naming facilitates meteorologists, researchers, authorities, civil protection officers, the media and citizens to communicate the forecasts of high-impact weather events, started storm naming in January 2017 and has named 35 storms up to September 2021. The criteria of storm naming are discussed, and a synopsis of the events is presented. The monthly distribution shows that 57% of the named storms occurred during the winter period, with January being the month with the highest percentage of occurrence of named storms (28%). The impact of storm naming on citizens risk perception and increased awareness has been also assessed through an internet-based questionnaire that was launched on the fourth year of the storm naming practice in Greece. Overall, results indicate a significant impact of storm naming on the readiness of citizens through the activation of perceptual and cognitive mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]