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Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717

In this deliverable, factors impacting effective replication of Low Temperature (LT) District Heating and Cooling (DHC) networks with Low Temperature Heat (LTH) and Renewable Energy (RE) sources integration are analyzed. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal and Environmental) analysis is performed for seven European countries, which host one or more REWARDHeat demonstrators.The PESTLE analysis was performed in a three-step process. The first step was data collection for each of the components included in the PESTLE analysis through literature reviews, interviews with the demo-sites, surveys distributed to and answered by the customers of the existing DH systems and energy systems modelling using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator for understanding the environmental impact long term. The second step was to identify and prioritize key factors identified for each of the PESTLE components. The third step was to rate the identified key factors together with experts from each demo-site country. The key factors were rated either as a barrier (major or minor) or as an opportunity (major or minor).Overall, the results of the PESTLE analysis show that there are more opportunities than barriers for the replication of LTDHC networks in the investigated countries. Opportunities mainly arise from the ambitious political goal of the EU to become climate-neutral by 2050. The EU goal leads to ambitious national targets for the Heating and Cooling (HC) sectors, which are still greatly dependent on the use of fossil fuels. Positive customers’ opinions and the current characteristics of the HC sectors in the investigated countries are also identified as opportunities for the development of LTDHC networks. At the country level, Denmark and Sweden are the countries in which conventional DH networks are well-established and it is in these countries the most opportunities for LTDHC can be found. A tradition of investing in large, centralized he

I rapporten undersöks hur framtida höga elbehov i flera sektorer (el- och värmeproduktion, bostäder och service, samt industri) kan komma att påverka framtida utsläpp av NOX och små partiklar (PM2,5). Ökad elektrifiering riskerar att fördröja den pågående utsläppsminskningen av NOX till år 2030 men skynda på utsläppsminskningen till år 2050. Effekten på den pågående utsläppsminskningen av PM2,5 riskerar vara fördröjande både år 2030 och 2050.

In 2019, the Nordic countries issued a common declaration to make the region carbon neutral. The declaration commits the countries to assess scenarios for how to achieve carbon neutrality, including the implications such scenarios would entail for various sectors. The declaration emphasised the necessity and benefit of collaborative action and invited the Nordic Council of Ministers to prepare a proposal on how to ensure that the Nordic region to fulfil their part of the Paris Climate Agreement. Three Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios were developed to support this work. These scenarios identified five solution tracks that can deliver carbon neutrality by 2050: direct electrification; PtX; bioenergy; CCS technologies; and behavioural change. More importantly, over the next decade, the rate of necessary emission reductions needs to happen at a pace five times faster than currently achieved.

Data centres (DCs) are expected to satisfy the rising demand for internet services. Denmark alone is expected to host several large-scale DCs, whose demand for electricity in 2040 may reach 33% of 2017 national electricity consumption. Understanding the operation and interactions of DCs with energy systems is key to understanding their impacts on installed capacities, costs and emissions. The present paper makes three contributions in this regard. First, we introduce a thermodynamic model that relates the power consumption of DCs to their production of excess heat (EH). Second, the results are scaled up to represent DCs in a national energy-system model for the analysis of different scenarios. Third, scenarios are generated and analysed to quantify the impact of DCs on the Danish energy system until 2050. The results show that DCs might have significant impacts on Denmark’s power and district heating (DH) sectors. First, the power demand from DCs translates into an additional 3–6 GW of offshore wind capacity. Second, EH from DCs is beneficial to the whole energy system, the entire quantity of EH being utilized in four out of five scenarios. EH recovery from DCs is economically beneficial, providing from 4% to 27% of Denmark’s DH after 2040.

Water is paramount for the operation of energy systems, for securing food supply and for the industry and municipalities. Intersectoral competition for water resources can negatively affect water scarce regions by e.g. power plants shutdowns, poor agricultural yields, and lack of potable water. Future economic and population growth as well as climate change is likely to exacerbate these patterns. However, models used for energy system management and planning in general do not properly include water availability which can lead to improper representations of water-energy interlinkages. The paper initially highlights the water usage rates of current technologies within electricity generation and technologies with a potential to reduce water usage, electricity consumption or GHG emissions. Secondly, the paper presents currently available data on current and future projected water resources as well as data on energy statistics relevant to water-energy nexus studies. Thirdly, implementation cases are presented showing examples of water-energy nexus studies for the data presented. Finally, the paper highlights main challenges in studying the linkage between water and energy. We find a substantial gap in the general availability and quality of regional and global data for detailed quantitative analyses and also identify a need for standardization of formats and data collection methodologies across data and disciplines. An effort towards a coordinated, and sustained open-access data framework with energy sector water usage at fine spatio-temporal scales alongside hydro-climatic observation and model data using common forcings and scenarios for future projections (of climate, socio-economy and technology) is therefore recommended for future water-energy nexus studies.

As Denmark progresses towards a carbon neutral future, energy system models are required to address the challenges of the energy transition. This article describes design, input data and current usage of TIMES-DK, the first Danish energy system model that includes the complete national energy system, covering long-term technology investments. The article aims at explaining the modelling approach; highlighting strengths and reflecting upon limitations of the model; illustrating possible applications of TIMES-DK and inspiring new model developments. Some of the key strengths of the model include simultaneous optimisation of operation and investments across the complete energy system over the whole modelling horizon, explicit representation of the most important sectors of the economy, modular structure and the possibility of linking to a computable general equilibrium model for an additional insight on, e.g. public finance or CO2-leakage. TIMES-DK is being developed in close collaboration between an energy agency, a university and a consulting firm, to improve its robustness, relevance and impact on policy making. It allows for a wide range of applications including exploratory energy scenarios and policy analysis. To meet challenges of the future, further development of the model is needed and consequently the article provides references to ongoing projects addressing current development needs, such as improved representation of transport and flexible handling of the temporal dimension. To support a democratic and transparent process around decisions for the future Danish energy system, TIMES-DK should become available to interested parties.

The unsustainable growth in global transport activity is straining planet's resources and ecosystems. Hence, there is a need to promote technological developments, regulatory instruments and social changes to reduce the impact of mobility demand on energy use and environment. The current paper aims at assessing the impact and effectiveness of transport policy measures in reaching emission reduction targets for the case of the integrated energy and transport system of Denmark. Our analysis of policy scenarios is performed in collaboration with experts, stakeholders and citizens, and facilitated by a newly developed Scenario Interface tool linked to the energy system model TIMES-DK. Market signals, in the form of taxes on CO2 and fossil fuels, retain the highest impact in lowering the carbon emissions from the transport sector, while the promotion of Mobility-as-a-Service is the most cost-effective measure among those analysed. Finally, we discuss the implications of combining instruments into policy packages and emphasise the urgency of addressing technology and policy solutions for the maritime and aviation sectors.

Experiencing the highest growth in emissions since 1990 and relying mainly on oil, transport is considered the most complicated sector to decarbonize. Lately, the Nordic countries have shown remarkable success in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in the power and heat sector. However, when it comes to transportation, the greatest source of Nordic GHG emissions, stronger measures are needed. Relying on a rich and diversified portfolio of renewable sources and expertise, the Nordic countries could benefit from a common mitigation strategy by encompassing a larger variety of solutions and potential synergies. This article reviews studies addressing integrated energy and transport scenario analysis for the Nordic region as a whole. The studies targeted are those applying energy system models, given their extensive adoption in supporting scenario analysis. Most notable of these studies is the “Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016” to which a special focus is dedicated. The article reviews the methodological choices and the research content of the selected literature. Challenges/limitations are identified in light of recent transport research, and categorized as: “transport behavior”, “breakthrough technologies”, “domestic energy resources” and “geographical aggregation and system boundaries”. Lastly, a list of suggestions to tackle the identified gaps is provided based on the existing literature.

Industrial excess heat may often be utilised for district heating and thus replace existing expensive or CO2-emitting technologies. Previous works analysed the distribution of excess heat by temperature intervals and their geographical distribution relative to district heating areas. A more detailed analysis of the most suitable types of industries and the costs is required, allowing a targeted exploitation of this resource. This work extends the spatial and thermodynamic analysis, to account for the temporal match between industrial excess heat and district heating demands, as well as the costs for implementation and operation of the systems. This allows the determination of cost-effective district heating potentials, as well as the analysis of different industries and technological requirements. The results show that the temporal mismatch between excess heat and district heating demand and lack of demand, reduces the theoretical substitution potential by almost 30%. If heat storages are introduced, the total potential is reduced by only 10%. A majority of the excess heat can be utilised at socio-economic heating costs lower than the average Danish district heating price and the cost of solar district heating. Excess heat from oil refineries, building material and food production can be utilised at the lowest specific costs.