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7. Future Prospects

Author

Soh, Aik Chin, primary, Mayes, Sean, additional, Roberts, Jeremy, additional, Mahamooth, Tasren, additional, Murphy, Denis J., additional, Walker, Sue, additional, Karunaratne, Asha S., additional, Murchie, Erik, additional, Foulkes, John, additional, de Raissac, Marcel, additional, Perez, Raphael, additional, Fabre, Denis, additional, Goh, Kah Joo, additional, Ong, Chin Kooi, additional, and Corley, Hereward, additional

Published
2017
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8. Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Author

Zubair, Lareef, primary, Nissanka, Sarath P., additional, Weerakoon, W. M. W., additional, Herath, Dumindu I., additional, Karunaratne, Asha S., additional, Prabodha, A. S. M., additional, Agalawatte, M. B., additional, Herath, Rasnayaka M., additional, Yahiya, S. Zeenas, additional, Punyawardhene, B. V. R., additional, Vishwanathan, Janan, additional, Delpitiya, Punya, additional, Wijekoon, A. Erandika N., additional, Gunaratna, Janaka, additional, Chandrasekara, Sewwandhi S. K., additional, Wickramagamage, P., additional, Weerasinghe, K. D. N., additional, Navaratne, Champa M., additional, Perera, Ruchika S., additional, Gunesekara, Asela I., additional, Kumara, G. M. Pradeep, additional, Wallach, Daniel, additional, Valdivia, Roberto O., additional, and McDermid, Sonali, additional

Published
2015
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9. The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Author

McDermid, Sonali P., primary, Ruane, Alexander C., additional, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, additional, Hudson, Nicholas I., additional, Morales, Monica D., additional, Agalawatte, Prabodha, additional, Ahmad, Shakeel, additional, Ahuja, L. R., additional, Amien, Istiqlal, additional, Anapalli, Saseendran S., additional, Anothai, Jakarat, additional, Asseng, Senthold, additional, Biggs, Jody, additional, Bert, Federico, additional, Bertuzzi, Patrick, additional, Bhatia, Virender S., additional, Bindi, Marco, additional, Broad, Ian, additional, Cammarano, Davide, additional, Carretero, Ramiro, additional, Chattha, Ashfaq Ahmad, additional, Chung, Uran, additional, Debats, Stephanie, additional, Deligios, Paola, additional, De Sanctis, Giacomo, additional, Dhliwayo, Thanda, additional, Dumont, Benjamin, additional, Estes, Lyndon, additional, Ewert, Frank, additional, Ferrise, Roberto, additional, Gaiser, Thomas, additional, Garcia, Guillermo, additional, Gbegbelegbe, Sika, additional, Geethalakshmi, Vellingiri, additional, Gerardeaux, Edward, additional, Goldberg, Richard, additional, Grant, Brian, additional, Guevara, Edgardo, additional, Hickman, Jonathan, additional, Hoffmann, Holger, additional, Huang, Huanping, additional, Hussain, Jamshad, additional, Justino, Flavio Barbosa, additional, Karunaratne, Asha S., additional, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, additional, Kouakou, Patrice K., additional, Kumar, Soora Naresh, additional, Lakshmanan, Arunachalam, additional, Lieffering, Mark, additional, Lin, Xiaomao, additional, Luo, Qunying, additional, Magrin, Graciela, additional, Mancini, Marco, additional, Marin, Fabio Ricardo, additional, Marta, Anna Dalla, additional, Masutomi, Yuji, additional, Mavromatis, Theodoros, additional, McLean, Greg, additional, Meira, Santiago, additional, Mohanty, Monoranjan, additional, Moriondo, Marco, additional, Nasim, Wajid, additional, Negm, Lamyaa, additional, Orlando, Francesca, additional, Orlandini, Simone, additional, Ozturk, Isik, additional, Soares Pinto, Helena Maria, additional, Podesta, Guillermo, additional, Qi, Zhiming, additional, Ramarohetra, Johanna, additional, ur Rahman, Muhammad Habib, additional, Raynal, Helene, additional, Rodriguez, Gabriel, additional, Rötter, Reimund, additional, Sharda, Vaishali, additional, Shuo, Lu, additional, Smith, Ward, additional, Snow, Val, additional, Soltani, Afshin, additional, Srinivas, K., additional, Sultan, Benjamin, additional, Swain, Dillip Kumar, additional, Tao, Fulu, additional, Tesfaye, Kindie, additional, Travasso, Maria I., additional, Trombi, Giacomo, additional, Topaj, Alex, additional, Vanuytrecht, Eline, additional, Viscarra, Federico E., additional, Aftab Wajid, Syed, additional, Wang, Enli, additional, Wang, Hong, additional, Wang, Jing, additional, Wijekoon, Erandika, additional, Byun-Woo, Lee, additional, Xiaoguang, Yang, additional, Young, Ban Ho, additional, Yun, Jin I., additional, Zhao, Zhigan, additional, and Zubair, Lareef, additional

Published
2015
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10. Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Author

Zubair, Lareef, Nissanka, Sarath P, Weerakoon, W. M. W, Herath, Dumindu I, Karunaratne, Asha S, Prabodha, A. S. M, Agalawatte, M. B, Herath, Rasnayaka, Yahiya, S. Zeenas, Punyawardhene, B. V. R, Vishwanathan, Janan, Delpitiya, Punya, Wijekoon, A. Erandika N, Gunaratna, Janaka, Chandrasekara, Sewwandhi S. K, Wickramagamage, P, Weerasinghe, K. D. N, Navaratne, Champa M, Perera, Ruchika S, Gunesekara, Asela I, Kumara, G. M. Pradeep, Wallach, Daniel, Valdivia, Roberto O, and McDermid, Sonali

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers.

Published
2015

14. Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes

Author

Ruane, Alex C., Mcdermid, Sonali P, Mavromatis, Theodoros, Hudson, Nicholas, Morales, Monica, Simmons, John, Agalawatte, Prabodha, Ahmad, Ashfaq, Ahmad, Shakeel, Ahuja, Laj R., Anapalli, Saseendran S., Anothai, Jakarat, Asseng, Senthold, Bellocchi, Gianni, Benjamin, Dumont, Bert, Federico, Bertuzzi, Patrick, Bhatia, Virendra S., Bindi, Marco, Biggs, Jody, Broad, Ian, Lee, Byun-Wu, Cammarano, Davide, Carretero, Ramiro, Chung, Uran, de Sanctis, Giacomo, Debats, Stephanie, Dhliwayo, Thanda, Estes, Lyndon, Ewert, Frank, Feng, Liping, Ferrrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Guillermo, Gastal, Francois, Gbegbelegbe, Sika, Geethalakshmi, Vellingiri, Gérardeaux, Edward, Goldberg, Richard, Grant, Brian, Guevara, Edgardo, Hickman, Jonathan, Hoffmann, Holger, Huang, Huanping, Hussain, Jamshad, Justino, Flavio Barbosa, Karunaratne, Asha S., Klumpp, Katja, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Kouakou, Patrice K., Kumar, Soora Naresh, Lakshmanan, Arunachalam, Lieffering, Mark, Lin, Xiaomao, Luo, Qunying, Ma, Shaoxiu, Magrin, Graciela, Marin, Fabio, Martin, Raphaël, Masutomi, Yuji, Mclean, Greg, Meira, Santiago, Mohanty, Monoranjan, Moore, Andre, Moriondo, Marco, Narh, Stephen, Negm, Lamyaa, Nemenyi, Miklos, Orlandini, Simone, Orlando, Francesca, Ozturk, Isik, Qi, Zhiming, Rahman, Ubaid Ur, Ramarohetra, Johanna, Raynal, Hélène, Rodriguez, Gabriel, Rolinski, Susanne, Ruget, Francoise, Sharda, Vaishali, Shuo, Lu, Smith, Ward, Snow, Val, Soltani, Afshin, Srinivas, K., Sultan, Benjamin, Swain, Dillip Kumar, Tao, Fulu, Tesfaye, Kindie, Thorburn, Peter, Topaj, Alex, Travasso, Maria I., Trombi, Giacomo, Vanuytrecht, Eline, Viscarra, Federico E., Nasim, Wajid, Wang, Enli, Wang, Hong, Wang, Jing, Wang, Sha, Wang, Yingchun, Wijekoon, Erandika, Xiaoguang, Yang, Young, Ban Ho, Yun, Jin I., Zhao, Yahxia, Zhao, Zhigan, Zubair, Lareef, UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and ProdInra, Migration

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, changement climatique, sécurité alimentaire, événements extrêmes, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, food and beverages, sense organs, skin and connective tissue diseases
Abstract

National audience; The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

Published
2015

15. Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes. [P-2223-18]

Author

Ruane, Alex C., McDermid, Sonali P., Mavromatis, Theodoros, Hudson, Nicholas I., Morales, Monica D., Simmons, John, Agalawatte, Prabodha, Ahmad, A., Ahmad, Shakeel, Ahuja, L., Anapalli, Saseendran S., Anothai, Jakarat, Asseng, Senthold, Bellocchi, Gianni, Dumont, Benjamin, Bert, Federico, Bertuzzi, Patrick, Bhatia, Virender S., Bindi, Marco, Biggs, Jody, Broad, Ian, Byun-Wu, Lee, Cammarano, Davide, Carretero, Ramiro, Chung, Uran, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Debats, Stephanie, Dhliwayo, Thanda, Estes, Lyndon, Ewert, Franck, Feng, Liping, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Guillermo, Gastal, François, Gbegbelegbe, Sika, Geethalakshmi, Vellingiri, Gérardeaux, Edward, Goldberg, Richard, Grant, Brian, Guevara, Edgardo, Hickman, Jonathan, Hoffmann, Holger, Huang, Huanping, Hussain, Jamshad, Justino, Flavio Barbosa, Karunaratne, Asha S., Klumpp, Katja, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, and Kouakou, Patrice Koffi

Subjects
food and beverages, sense organs, skin and connective tissue diseases
Abstract

The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

Published
2015

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