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This article explores the environmental, historical and cultural factors that influence civic engagement among rural communities in contemporary Kazakhstan. It traces how forms of nomadic communitarianism as a response to the vicissitudes of life on the open Steppe merged with the imposed collectivism of Soviet society in such a manner that the two were able to coexist together in both policy and practice. Drawing on fieldwork among a number of villages in South Kazakhstan, we argue that, together, the nomadic and Soviet pasts still constitute the core values at work in rural communities, influencing the structure of local power relations and the nature of group association and cooperative venture. Rather than disappearing, these values, if anything, are re-emerging as part of an attempt to legitimise Kazakh culture as the core identity of the modern nation state.

Landslides constitute a hazard to life and infrastructure and their risk is mitigated primarily by reducing exposure. This requires information on landslide hazard on a scale that can enable informed decisions. Such information is often unavailable to, or not easily interpreted by, those who might need it most (e.g. householders, local governments and non-governmental organisations). To address this shortcoming, we develop simple rules to minimise exposure to coseismic landslide hazard that are understandable, communicable and memorable, and that require no prior knowledge, skills or equipment to apply. We examine rules based on two common metrics of landslide hazard, (1) local slope and (2) upslope contributing area as a proxy for hillslope location relative to rivers or ridge crests. In addition, we introduce and test two new metrics: the maximum angle to the skyline and the hazard area, defined as the upslope area with slope >40∘ from which landslide debris can reach a location without passing over a slope of ∘. We then test the skill with which each metric can identify landslide hazard – defined as the probability of being hit by a landslide – using inventories of landslides triggered by six earthquakes that occurred between 1993 and 2015. We find that the maximum skyline angle and hazard area provide the most skilful predictions, and these results form the basis for two simple rules: “minimise your maximum angle to the skyline” and “avoid steep (>10∘) channels with many steep (>40∘) areas that are upslope”. Because local slope alone is also a skilful predictor of landslide hazard, we can formulate a third rule as “minimise the angle of the slope under your feet, especially on steep hillsides, but not at the expense of increasing skyline angle or hazard area”. In contrast, the upslope contributing area has a weaker and more complex relationship to hazard than the other predictors. Our simple rules complement but do not replace detailed site-specific investigation: they can be used for initial estimations of landslide hazard or to guide decision-making in the absence of any other information.

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake triggered in excess of 20,000 landslides across 14 districts of Central and Western Nepal. Whilst the instantaneous impact of these landslides was significant, the ongoing effect of the earthquake on changing the potential for rainfall-triggered landsliding in the months and years that followed has remained poorly understood and challenging to predict. To provide insight into how landsliding has evolved since the earthquake, and how it has impacted those living in the affected area, a detailed time-series landslide mapping campaign was undertaken to monitor the evolution of coseismic landslides and the initiation of new post-seismic landslides. This was supplemented by numerical modelling to simulate the future potential reactivation and runout of landslides as debris flows under monsoon rainfall, identifying locations potentially at risk. This analysis shows that landslide hazard was higher in November 2019 as compared to immediately after the 2015 earthquake, with a considerable portion of the landscape being impacted by landsliding. We show that, while pre-existing landslides continued to pose the majority of hazard in the aftermath of the earthquake, a significant number of landslides also occurred in new locations. We discuss the value of this type of analysis in informing the reconstruction and management of settlements at risk by summarizing how this work was integrated into the project Durable Solutions II, that supported communities at risk from landslides. Finally, we consider how such data could be used in future to inform risk sensitive land-use planning and disaster recovery, and to mitigate the impacts of future landsliding in Nepal and beyond.

Coseismic landslides are a major hazard associated with large earthquakes in mountainous regions. Despite growing evidence for their widespread impacts and persistence, current understanding of the evolution of landsliding over time after large earthquakes, the hazard that these landslides pose, and their role in the mountain sediment cascade remains limited. To address this, we present the first systematic multi‐temporal landslide inventory to span the full rupture area of a large continental earthquake across the pre‐, co‐ and post‐seismic periods. We focus on the 3.5 years after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal and show that throughout this period both the number and area of mapped landslides have remained higher than on the day of the earthquake itself. We document systematic upslope and northward shifts in the density of landsliding through time. Areas where landslides have persisted tend to cluster in space, but those areas that have returned to pre‐earthquake conditions are more dispersed. Whilst both pre‐ and coseismic landslide locations tend to persist within mapped post‐earthquake inventories, a wider population of newly activated but spatially‐dispersed landslides has developed after the earthquake. This is particularly important for post‐earthquake recovery plans that are typically based on hazard assessments conducted immediately after the earthquake and thus do not consider the evolving landslide hazard. We show that recovery back to pre‐earthquake landsliding rates is fundamentally dependent on how that recovery is defined and measured. Clarity around this definition is particularly important for informing a comprehensive approach to post‐earthquake landslide hazard and risk.

While increasing resilience to earthquakes in the global South has become a major research and policy goal, the focus has largely been on rapidly expanding urban areas. Rural areas are often neglected despite the fact that rural residents make up a significant proportion of the population exposed to earthquakes in many low and middle-income countries. Central Asia is a case in point. Drawing on empirical research undertaken in the Central Asian Republic of Kazakhstan, this paper explores local perceptions of and responses to earthquake hazard and risk among rural householders. The primary data are derived from a survey of 302 households conducted across six rural communities in South Kazakhstan oblast (now Turkistan oblast), supplemented by 10 focus group discussions with rural residents. The findings show little awareness of earthquakes or concern about the potential occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake in the future. This reflects, at least in part, a lack of direct experience of all but minor earthquakes. As a result, we see little evidence of the presence of a seismic culture. Only a small number of respondents had received guidance on how to prepare for, or respond to, earthquakes, and few householders had taken any action to reduce the risk faced. We reflect on the findings in the context of Kazakhstan’s Soviet past and its transition to a post-Soviet future. We argue that acknowledging this past is essential to understanding local level decision-making and to informing future disaster risk reduction interventions in rural areas.

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response. Please read the corrigendum first before accessing the article

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re‐examines the Second World in its historical context and re‐establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.

This chapter focuses on social resilience which has been defined by W. Neil. Adger as “the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses or disturbances as a result of social, political or environmental change”. It attempts to build social resilience in the context of flooding through donor-funded development projects using Nepal as a case study. The chapter argues that while there are tangible benefits to resilience building initiatives through the development of flood early-warning systems, projects rarely address the root causes of disasters which give rise to household vulnerability in the first place. It explores concepts of social vulnerability and resilience in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and makes the case for a gendered perspective, with a specific focus on women. The chapter outlines the study which was conducted at a time when Nepal was undergoing a period of significant political change, with implications for how DRR is governed, women’s rights and citizenship.

Vulnerability to extreme weather events reflects the type, severity, and duration of the exposure, in addition to the attributes that make individuals and physical and social infrastructures susceptible to damage. Older populations are a demographic group likely to be at risk, despite their considerable capacity for adaptation and resilience. The vulnerability (and resilience) of older people significantly depends on the types and strengths of connections across complex systems of health and social care, upon which a substantial proportion of older people depend. In many areas of the world, there is growing emphasis on strategies to recognize, sustain, and strengthen this “nexus” of critical connections. This chapter considers people and climate change in a Western European context using illustrations from research in England, which focuses on the impacts of extreme weather events on the built infrastructure supporting older people’s health and social care delivery.

Natural hazards in Nepal have traditionally been managed on an ad hoc basis as and when they occur, with individuals and communities largely responsible for their own risk management. More recently, however, there has been a shift from response to disaster preparedness and risk reduction, in line with the United Nations Hyogo Framework for Action and the more recent Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Like many developing countries, Nepal has received significant financial and technical support to implement DRR programs from the national to the community levels. While this has provided a much-needed incentive for action in this post-conflict, transitional state, it has also created a complex governance landscape involving a multitude of government and non-government stakeholders. Heavily influenced by the neoliberal development agenda, and in the absence of an up-to-date disaster management act, DRR programs focused largely on institution-building and technical interventions, for example, the establishment of disaster management committees, the retrofitting of schools and hospitals, and the development of flood early warning systems. Such interventions are highly technocratic and have been critiqued for failing to address the root causes of disasters, in particular, the systemic poverty, social inequality and marginalization that characterizes Nepal. Nepal is also undergoing a complex political transition, which has seen the ratification of a new constitution, federal restructuring, and local elections for the first time in 20 years, as well as the passing of the new Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act 2017. There is much scope for optimism but successful risk reduction moving forward will require commitment and action at all levels of the governance hierarchy, and a wider commitment to address the social injustice that continues to prevail.

Drawing on a local study on Nepal’s Terai, this paper explores the nature of livelihood exposure to shocks and stresses among rural households in two Village Development Committees in Sunsari District. The primary data are derived from a 117 household survey supplemented by 19 purposefully sampled follow-up interviews. The paper opens with a discussion of the changing nature of exposure in the global South, distinguishing between inherited vulnerability and produced precarity. We then provide background to the research site and the research methods. In the core empirical part of the paper we unravel and distinguish between the livelihood threats and opportunities faced by households in the area and use these to reflect on the nature of ’exposure’, its historical origins and contemporary (re)production. The final part of the paper uses the Nepal case to build a more general argument, proposing that if we are to understand the puzzle of continued livelihood exposure and uncertainty in the context of aggregate economic expansion we need to identify and interrogate the processes that may, at the same time, produce wealth and reduce vulnerability, while also generating precarity.

Our findings contribute to a growing international literature on how conceptual models from complexity theory may be relevant to inform planning in health and social care systems, helping to adapt and improve preparedness and resilience to extreme weather events. We focus on findings from two case studies in England and their relationship to national policy for adaptation. Complexity theory helped to frame strategies for planning for events that are emergent and unpredictable. We find from our case studies that, in spite of the uncertainty involved, some ‘principles’ derived from parts of the literature on complexity theory may provide a helpful framework for the development of more robust preparedness strategies in the health and social care sector. By viewing health and social care as a ‘system of systems’, adaptation planning recognises the interrelationships of built, institutional and social infrastructures. The idea of local systems, with variable, path-dependent attributes, which are partially closed, but permeable to other parts of the wider network, leads to an actionable model of adaptation which emphasises the potential value of local self-organisation, but also underlines the importance of co-evolution across the wider system and the vital role of national initiatives and support for adaptation strategies. The value of sharing experience from local case studies across the national system, as well as among local partners, is very apparent in the experience reported here.

Quantitative risk assessment and risk management processes are critically examined in the context of their applicability to the statistically infrequent and sometimes unforeseen events that trigger major disasters. While of value when applied at regional or larger scales by governments and insurance companies, these processes do not provide a rational basis for reducing the impacts of major disasters at the local (community) level because in any given locality disaster events occur too infrequently for their future occurrence in a realistic timeframe to be accurately predicted by statistics. Given that regional and national strategies for disaster reduction cannot be effective without effective local disaster reduction measures, this is a significant problem. Instead, we suggest that communities, local government officials, civil society organisations and scientists could usefully form teams to co-develop local hazard event and effects scenarios, around which the teams can then develop realistic long-term plans for building local resilience. These plans may also be of value in reducing the impacts of other disasters, and are likely to have the additional benefits of improving science development, relevance and uptake, and of enhancing communication between scientists and the public.

‘Resilience’ is the catchword of the moment. For many of the mainstream institutions of international development, building resilience is embedded in a wider commitment to market liberalism. Taking three entry points, the sectoral, spatial and socio-governmental, this paper critically explores the connections, interdependencies and tensions between social resilience and the market imperative. The paper argues that ‘liberal resilience’ plays into a growth-development-resilience ‘trap’ wherein economic growth has become a de facto synonym for development and, often, development a synonym for resilience. Drawing on empirical cases from across rural Asia we highlight the incongruities and inconsistencies in this line of logic. The paper suggests that there is a need to critically judge the market mechanism and the complex and sometimes contradictory ways in which the processes that have been set in train by market integration impinge on resilience.

Drawing on research on landslide risk reduction in Nepal and the impacts of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 in southern Thailand, this paper considers how risk, in the context of natural hazards, is produced by processes of social and economic transformation; understood and experienced by vulnerable groups; and framed by governments and experts. In so doing, we propose an agenda for more effective disaster risk management. We open the discussion by exploring the spatiality of risk, vulnerability and opportunity in the two research contexts, in particular, why people live in hazardous places and the processes that explain the intersection of human settlement and livelihoods on the one hand, and risk on the other. The paper then turns to consider the way that “risk”—and the framing and prioritisation of risk(s) by governments, experts and by vulnerable groups themselves—plays a role in setting the disaster risk management agenda. Underpinning this is the hidden question of what evidence is used—and valued—in the identification and delineation of risk. In order to understand disaster vulnerability, we argue that it is necessary to look beyond the immediate “hazardscape” to understand the wider risk context both spatially and structurally. Effective disaster risk management requires not only an appreciation of the different framings and understandings of risk, but a true integration of knowledge and expertise.

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment, and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved, and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end-users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response.

On 25 April 2015, a Mw 7.8 earthquake struck central Nepal, killing more than 8700 people. An earthquake of this magnitude has long been anticipated in Nepal and the neighbouring northern Indian state of Bihar, which straddle the active Himalayan frontal fault system. Drawing on field research undertaken before the earthquake, this paper traces the progress made in earthquake risk reduction efforts at the national scale in Nepal and at the sub-national scale in Bihar. With their contrasting ‘governance landscapes’, we examine the political and institutional context and power relations among different stakeholder groups, as well as the interests and political will motivating earthquake risk reduction. Nepal is a post-conflict country, with a weak legislative and institutional setting for earthquake risk reduction, and a multitude of different stakeholders (government, multi and bi-lateral donors, UN organisations, and national and international NGOs) engaged in the disaster risk reduction process. Bihar, by comparison, has a strong, hierarchical, sub-national government system with minimal influence of non-government stakeholders in earthquake risk reduction. While Nepal appears to have progressed further in strengthening earthquake resilience, the institutional structures in Bihar are stronger and could potentially support more sustainable resilience building in the long-term. The role of individual ‘champions’ in both instances (in Nepal among a national NGO, donors and multilateral agencies, and in Bihar within the government) has been instrumental in shaping the earthquake risk reduction agenda and initiatives.

Health and social care systems (including the care needs of the population and infrastructures providing health and social care) are likely to be influenced by climate change, in particular by the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related hazards such as floods and heatwaves. Coldwaves will also continue to be challenging in the foreseeable future. Protecting people’s health and wellbeing from the impacts of climate change is especially important for older people, as they are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. In addition, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly. This paper addresses these issues through a discussion of our work to map variations across England in future hazards, vulnerability and risk. We explain how this mapping has been used to identify areas of the country where the built infrastructure serving the older age group might be most severely impacted by climate-related events over the next 20–30 years and where planning for adaptation and resilience is most urgently required. Based on a review of research on the links between extreme weather events and their impacts on older people’s health and the care services on which they depend, we developed operational definitions of extreme weather-related hazards likely to place particular pressure on health and social care systems that are essential for older people’s health and wellbeing. We consider ways to relate these to the latest climate projections for the 2030s from the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCP09); river and coastal flooding projections for the 2050s from the 2004 UK Government’s Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project (Environment Agency, 2004); and demographic projections for 2031 produced by the Office for National Statistics, UK. The research highlights the complexity of undertaking future hazard and vulnerability assessments. Key challenges include: how to define future hazards associated with climate change; how to predict and interpret future socio-demographic conditions contributing to vulnerability; and how geographical variability in hazards and vulnerabilities may combine to produce risks at the local level. In contrast to a number of more local studies which have focused on the vulnerability of urban populations to the impact of climate change (particularly heatwaves), the findings highlight the potential vulnerability of older populations in more rural regions (often in coastal areas) to a range of extreme weather-related hazards in both the North and South of England.

Climate change presents significant challenges for human health and well-being and geography is contributing a growing field of knowledge relating to these processes. We outline here key dimensions of the debate, pointing to areas where human geographers can make a particularly strong contribution. These include: issues of adaptation and resilience; sustainability; environmental justice and socially unequal impacts of climate change; and psychological as well as physical impacts of environment on health. Key themes in the emerging research agenda include the significance of affect and emotion for the perception and communication of hazard and risk associated with the health impacts of climate change. Also, understanding exposure to health risks of climate change requires knowledge of complex and individually variable daily action spaces and residential mobility over the lifecourse. We argue for research that considers complex processes operating at various geographical scales, linking arguments about ‘global health’ with the more local and individual processes that contribute to health determinants. Much of the literature on health impacts of climate change demonstrates socially and geographically unequal effects, which often exacerbate existing health disparities. This highlights the links between this field of health geography and other geographical research concerned with sustainability and environmental justice.

Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates. In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and natural systems.

We use theories of formal and informal networks of care, within a local governance system, to interpret networks supporting older people during extreme weather events. Drawing on international literatures about network governance and emergency management this paper outlines an approach which considers the views of older people and service providers to explore resilience of infrastructures and service agencies. During emergencies, links between different networks of care are important to avoid discontinuities that could endanger older people’s health and well-being. This paper explores the scope to draw on local knowledge and local caring networks to inform preparedness for extreme weather.

In the neo-liberal climate of reduced responsibility for the state, alongside global platforms established to implement the Hyogo Framework for Action, a new arena opens for a multitude of stakeholders to engage in disaster risk reduction (DRR). The key role that the state can play in instituting effective DRR tends to receive little attention, yet in situations where the state apparatus is weak, such as in Nepal, it becomes evident that integrating DRR into development is a particularly challenging task. Due to the political situation in Nepal, progress has been stalled in providing a legislative context conducive to effective DRR. This paper traces the evolution of key DRR initiatives that have been developed in spite of the challenging governance context, such as the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management and the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium. Informed by in-depth interviews with key informants, the argument is made that the dedicated efforts of national and international non-governmental organisations, multilateral agencies and donors in mainstreaming DRR demonstrate that considerable progress can be made even where government departments are protective of their own interests and are slow to enact policies to support DRR. The paper suggests however, that without stronger engagement of key political actors the prospects for further progress in DRR may be limited. The findings have implications for other post-conflict countries or weak states engaging in DRR.