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Past pandemic influenza viruses with sustained human-to-human transmissibility have emerged from animal influenza viruses. Employment of experimental models to assess the pandemic risk of emerging zoonotic influenza viruses provides critical information supporting public health efforts. Ferret transmission experiments have been utilized to predict the human-to-human transmission potential of novel influenza viruses. However, small sample sizes and a lack of standardized protocols can introduce interlaboratory variability, complicating interpretation of transmission experimental data. To assess the range of variation in ferret transmission experiments, a global exercise was conducted by 11 laboratories using two common stock H1N1 influenza viruses with different transmission characteristics in ferrets. Parameters known to affect transmission were standardized, including the inoculation route, dose, and volume, as well as a strict 1:1 donor/contact ratio for respiratory droplet transmission. Additional host and environmental parameters likely to affect influenza transmission kinetics were monitored and analyzed. The overall transmission outcomes for both viruses across 11 laboratories were concordant, suggesting the robustness of the ferret model for zoonotic influenza risk assessment. Among environmental parameters that varied across laboratories, donor-to-contact airflow directionality was associated with increased transmissibility. To attain high confidence in identifying viruses with moderate to high transmissibility or low transmissibility under a smaller number of participating laboratories, our analyses support the notion that as few as three but as many as five laboratories, respectively, would need to independently perform viral transmission experiments with concordant results. This exercise facilitates the development of a more homogenous protocol for ferret transmission experiments that are employed for the purposes of risk assessment. IMPORTANCE Following

The panzootic caused by A/goose/Guangdong/1/96-lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses has occurred in multiple waves since 1996. From 2013 onwards, clade 2.3.4.4 viruses of subtypes A(H5N2), A(H5N6), and A(H5N8) emerged to cause panzootic waves of unprecedented magnitude among avian species accompanied by severe losses to the poultry industry around the world. Clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses have expanded in distinct geographical and evolutionary pathways likely via long distance migratory bird dispersal onto several continents and by poultry trade among neighboring countries. Coupled with regional circulation, the viruses have evolved further by reassorting with local viruses. As of February 2019, there have been 23 cases of humans infected with clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses, 16 (70%) of which had fatal outcomes. To date, no HPAI A(H5) virus has caused sustainable human-to-human transmission. However, due to the lack of population immunity in humans and ongoing evolution of the virus, there is a continuing risk that clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses could cause an influenza pandemic if the ability to transmit efficiently among humans was gained. Therefore, multisectoral collaborations among the animal, environmental, and public health sectors are essential to conduct risk assessments and develop countermeasures to prevent disease and to control spread. In this article, we describe an assessment of the likelihood of clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses gaining human-to-human transmissibility and impact on human health should such human-to-human transmission occur. This structured analysis assessed properties of the virus, attributes of the human population, and ecology and epidemiology of these viruses in animal hosts.

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor (NAI) oseltamivir (OST) is the most widely used influenza antiviral drug. Several NA amino acid substitutions are reported to reduce viral susceptibility to OST in in vitro assays. However, whether there is a correlation between the level of reduction in susceptibility in vitro and the efficacy of OST against these viruses in vivo is not well understood. In this study, a ferret model was utilised to evaluate OST efficacy against circulating influenza A and B viruses with a range of in vitro generated 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC50) values for OST. OST efficacy against an A(H1N1)pdm09 and an A(H1N1)pdm09 virus with the H275Y substitution in neuraminidase was also tested in the macaque model. The results from this study showed that OST had a significant impact on virological parameters compared to placebo treatment of ferrets infected with wild-type influenza A viruses with normal IC50 values (~1 nM). However, this efficacy was lower against wild-type influenza B and other viruses with higher IC50 values. Differing pathogenicity of the viruses made evaluation of clinical parameters difficult, although some effect of OST in reducing clinical signs was observed with influenza A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 (H275Y) viruses. Viral titres in macaques were too low to draw conclusive results. Analysis of the ferret data revealed a correlation between IC50 and OST efficacy in reducing viral shedding but highlighted that the current WHO guidelines/criteria for defining normal, reduced or highly reduced inhibition in influenza B viruses based on in vitro data are not well aligned with the low in vivo OST efficacy observed for both wild-type influenza B viruses and those with reduced OST susceptibility.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) must acquire mammalian-adaptive mutations before they can efficiently replicate in and transmit among humans. The PB2 E627K mutation is known to play a prominent role in the mammalian adaptation of AIVs. The H7N9 AIVs that emerged in 2013 in China easily acquired the PB2 E627K mutation upon replication in humans. Here, we generate a series of reassortant or mutant H7N9 AIVs and test them in mice. We show that the low polymerase activity attributed to the viral PA protein is the intrinsic driving force behind the emergence of PB2 E627K during H7N9 AIV replication in mice. Four residues in the N-terminal region of PA are critical in mediating the PB2 E627K acquisition. Notably, due to the identity of viral PA protein, the polymerase activity and growth of H7N9 AIV are highly sensitive to changes in expression levels of human ANP32A protein. Furthermore, the impaired viral polymerase activity of H7N9 AIV caused by the depletion of ANP32A led to reduced virus replication in Anp32a-/- mice, abolishing the acquisition of the PB2 E627K mutation and instead driving the virus to acquire the alternative PB2 D701N mutation. Taken together, our findings show that the emergence of the PB2 E627K mutation of H7N9 AIV is driven by the intrinsic low polymerase activity conferred by the viral PA protein, which also involves the engagement of mammalian ANP32A.IMPORTANCE The emergence of the PB2 E627K substitution is critical in the mammalian adaptation and pathogenesis of AIV. H7N9 AIVs that emerged in 2013 possess a prominent ability in gaining the PB2 E627K mutation in humans. Here, we demonstrate that the acquisition of the H7N9 PB2 E627K mutation is driven by the low polymerase activity conferred by the viral PA protein in human cells, and four PA residues are collectively involved in this process. Notably, the H7N9 PA protein leads to significant dependence of viral polymerase function on human ANP32A protein, and Anp32a knockout abolishes PB2 E627K

Influenza viruses mutate frequently, necessitating constant updates of vaccine viruses. To establish experimental approaches that may complement the current vaccine strain selection process, we selected antigenic variants from human H1N1 and H3N2 influenza virus libraries possessing random mutations in the globular head of the haemagglutinin protein (which includes the antigenic sites) by incubating them with human and/or ferret convalescent ser

Influenza viruses mutate frequently, necessitating constant updates of vaccine viruses. To establish experimental approaches that may complement the current vaccine strain selection process, we selected antigenic variants from human H1N1 and H3N2 influenza virus libraries possessing random mutations in the globular head of the haemagglutinin protein (which includes the antigenic sites) by incubating them with human and/or ferret convalescent sera to human H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. We also selected antigenic escape variants from human viruses treated with convalescent sera and from mice that had been previously immunized against human influenza viruses. Our pilot studies with past influenza viruses identified escape mutants that were antigenically similar to variants that emerged in nature, establishing the feasibility of our approach. Our studies with contemporary human influenza viruses identified escape mutants before they caused an epidemic in 2014-2015. This approach may aid in the prediction of potential antigenic escape variants and the selection of future vaccine candidates before they become widespread in nature.

The recent emergence of a novel H7N9 influenza A virus (IAV) causing severe human infections in China raises concerns about a possible pandemic. The lack of pre-existing neutralizing antibodies in the broader population highlights the potential protective role of IAV-specific CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) memory specific for epitopes conserved between H7N9 and previously encountered IAVs. In the present study, the heterosubtypic immunity generated by prior H9N2 or H1N1 infections significantly, but variably, reduced morbidity and mortality, pulmonary virus load and time to clearance in mice challenged with the H7N9 virus. In all cases, the recall of established CTL memory was characterized by earlier, greater airway infiltration of effectors targeting the conserved or cross-reactive H7N9 IAV peptides; though, depending on the priming IAV, each case was accompanied by distinct CTL epitope immunodominance hierarchies for the prominent K(b)PB(1703, D(b)PA(224), and D(b)NP(366) epitopes. While the presence of conserved, variable, or cross-reactive epitopes between the priming H9N2 and H1N1 and the challenge H7N9 IAVs clearly influenced any change in the immunodominance hierarchy, the changing patterns were not tied solely to epitope conservation. Furthermore, the total size of the IAV-specific memory CTL pool after priming was a better predictor of favorable outcomes than the extent of epitope conservation or secondary CTL expansion. Modifying the size of the memory CTL pool significantly altered its subsequent protective efficacy on disease severity or virus clearance, confirming the important role of heterologous priming. These findings establish that both the protective efficacy of heterosubtypic immunity and CTL immunodominance hierarchies are reflective of the immunological history of the host, a finding that has implications for understanding human CTL responses and the rational design of CTL-mediated vaccines.

A voluntary 60-day pause on avian H5N1 influenza virus transmission research was announced in January 2012 by the international community of influenza scientists engaged in this work to provide time to explain the benefits of such work and the risk mitigation measures in place. Subsequently, the pause was extended to allow for time for review of the biosafety and bios-ecurity conditions. After almost 8 months, these conditions have been met in some countries and are close to being met in others. Because H5N1 virus transmission studies are essential for pandemic preparedness, researchers who have approval from their governments and institutions to conduct this research safely under appropriate biosecurity conditions should resume this important work.

A voluntary 60-day pause on avian H5N1 influenza virus transmission research was announced in January 2012 by the international community of influenza scientists engaged in this work to provide time to explain the benefits of such work and the risk mitigation measures in place. Subsequently, the pause was extended to allow for time for review of the biosafety and biosecurity conditions. After almost 8 months, these conditions have been met in some countries and are close to being met in others. Because H5N1 virus transmission studies are essential for pandemic preparedness, researchers who have approval from their governments and institutions to conduct this research safely under appropriate biosecurity conditions should resume this important work.

The first influenza pandemic of the new millennium was caused by a newly emerged swine-origin influenza virus (SOIV) (H1N1). This new virus is characterized by a previously unknown constellation of gene segments derived from North American and Eurasian swine lineages and the absence of common markers predictive of human adaptation. Overall, human infections appeared to be mild, but an alarming number of young individuals presented with symptoms atypical for seasonal influenza. The new SOIV also showed a sustained human-to-human transmissibility and higher reproduction ratio than common seasonal viruses, altogether indicating a higher pathogenic potential for this newly emerged virus. To study the virulence of the SOIV, we used a recently established cynomolgus macaque model and compared parameters of clinical disease, virology, host responses, and pathology/histopathology with a current seasonal H1N1 virus. We here show that infection of macaques with two genetically similar but clinically distinct SOIV isolates from the early stage of the pandemic (A/Mexico/4108/2009 and A/Mexico/InDRE4487/2009) resulted in upper and lower respiratory tract infections and clinical disease ranging from mild to severe pneumonia that was clearly advanced over the mild infection caused by A/Kawasaki/UTK-4/2009, a current seasonal strain. Unexpectedly, we observed heterogeneity among the two SOIV isolates in virus replication, host transcriptional and cytokine responses, and disease progression, demonstrating a higher pathogenic potential for A/Mexico/InDRE4487/2009. Differences in virulence may explain more severe disease, as was seen with certain individuals infected with the emerged pandemic influenza virus. Thus, the nonhuman primate model closely mimics influenza in humans. Copyright