1. Scenario analysis can guide aquaculture planning to meet sustainable future production goals
- Author
-
Halley E. Froehlich, Keith R. Jeffery, James A. Morris, Bela H. Buck, Montse Perez, Gesche Krause, Jessica Couture, Benjamin S. Halpern, Harri Vehviläinen, and Grant D. Stentiford
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Seven Management and Planning Tools ,Aquaculture ,Aquatic Science ,Oceanography ,01 natural sciences ,evolution ,Production (economics) ,EAA ,14. Life underwater ,Scenario analysis ,Environmental planning ,futures planning ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Spatial planning ,SDGs ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,fish ,Ecology ,business.industry ,MSP ,marine ecology ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,15. Life on land ,Robust design ,13. Climate action ,Scale (social sciences) ,Sustainability ,aquatic farming ,040102 fisheries ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,ecosystems management ,Business ,management - Abstract
Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked., 2,277
- Published
- 2021