191 results on '"Kelly, Mark C."'
Search Results
2. The impact of posttraumatic stress disorder on the psychological distress, positivity, and well-being of Australian police officers.
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Harnett, Paul H., primary, Kelly, Mark C., additional, and Gullo, Matthew J., additional
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- 2023
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3. Inhibition of native 5-HT3 receptor-evoked contractions in guinea pig and mouse ileum by antimalarial drugs
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Kelley, Stephen P., Walsh, Jacqueline, Kelly, Mark C., Muhdar, Simerjyot, Adel-Aziz, Mohammed, Barrett, Iain D., and Wildman, Scott S.
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- 2014
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4. Complex CatSper-dependent and independent [Ca2+]i signalling in human spermatozoa induced by follicular fluid
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Brown, Sean G., Costello, Sarah, Kelly, Mark C., Ramalingam, Mythili, Drew, Ellen, Publicover, Stephen J., Barratt, Christopher L.R., and Da Silva, Sarah Martins
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- 2017
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5. Urinary ATP and visualization of intracellular bacteria: a superior diagnostic marker for recurrent UTI in renal transplant recipients?
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Kelley, Stephen P, Courtneidge, Holly R, Birch, Rebecca E, Contreras-Sanz, Alberto, Kelly, Mark C, Durodie, Jerome, Peppiatt-Wildman, Claire M, Farmer, Christopher K, Delaney, Michael P, Malone-Lee, James, Harber, Mark A, and Wildman, Scott S
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- 2014
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6. Growth and Welfare Implications of Mortality Differentials in Unfunded Social Security Systems
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Kelly, Mark C., primary
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- 2022
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7. Interorganizational cooperation: Part I of III: the interagency perspective
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McArthur, James C., Betts, William D., Bregon, Nelson R., Chamberlain, Faith M., Katsos, George E., Kelly, Mark C., Levy, E. Craig, Lim, Matthew L., Mickus, Kimberly K., and Stockton, Paul N.
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Military leaders ,Armed Forces ,Military and naval science - Abstract
In 2012, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff directed the Armed Forces to expand the envelope of interagency cooperation. (1) His edict inspired a profusion of Department of [...]
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- 2015
8. Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations of Open Cellular Convection Over the Sea
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Vincent, Claire L., Hahmann, Andrea N., and Kelly, Mark C.
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- 2012
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9. Recommendations on potential standards changes for distributed wind: driving research via IEA Task 41
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Kelly, Mark C.
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- 2021
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10. Foreign aid, public investment, and the informal economy
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Chatterjee, Santanu, primary, Kelly, Mark C., additional, and Turnovsky, Stephen J., additional
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- 2021
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11. Single-cell analysis of [Ca2+]i signalling in sub-fertile men: characteristics and relation to fertilization outcome
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Kelly, Mark C, Brown, Sean G, Costello, Sarah M, Ramalingam, Mythili, Drew, Ellen, Publicover, Stephen J, Barratt, Christopher L R, and Martins Da Silva, Sarah
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Male ,calcium signalling ,subfertility ,urogenital system ,Fertilization in Vitro ,CatSper channel ,progesterone ,Cohort Studies ,Semen Analysis ,Pregnancy ,spermatozoa ,Case-Control Studies ,Infertility ,Sperm Motility ,Humans ,Female ,Original Article ,Calcium ,Calcium Channels ,Calcium Signaling ,Andrology ,Single-Cell Analysis ,Infertility, Male ,reproductive and urinary physiology - Abstract
STUDY QUESTION What are the characteristics of progesterone-induced (CatSper-mediated) single cell [Ca2+]i signals in spermatozoa from sub-fertile men and how do they relate to fertilizing ability? SUMMARY ANSWER Single cell analysis of progesterone-induced (CatSper-mediated) [Ca2+]i showed that reduced progesterone-sensitivity is a common feature of sperm from sub-fertile patients and is correlated with fertilization rate. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Stimulation with progesterone is a widely used method for assessing [Ca2+]i mobilization by activation of CatSper in human spermatozoa. Although data are limited, sperm population studies have indicated an association of poor [Ca2+]i response to progesterone with reduced fertilization ability. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This was a cohort study using semen samples from 21 donors and 101 patients attending the assisted conception unit at Ninewells Hospital Dundee who were undergoing ART treatment. Patients were recruited from January 2016 to June 2017. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Semen donors and patients were recruited in accordance with local ethics approval (13/ES/0091) from the East of Scotland Research Ethics Service (EoSRES) REC1. [Ca2+]i responses were examined by single cell imaging and motility parameters assessed by computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA). MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE For analysis, patient samples were divided into three groups IVF(+ve) (successful fertilization; 62 samples), IVF-FF (failed fertilization; eight samples) and ICSI (21 samples). A further 10 IVF samples showed large, spontaneous [Ca2+]i oscillations and responses to progesterone could not be analysed. All patient samples loaded with the [Ca2+]i-indicator fluo4 responded to progesterone stimulation with a biphasic increase in fluorescence (transient followed by plateau) which resembled that seen in progesterone-stimulated donor samples. The mean normalized response (progesterone-induced increase in fluorescence normalized to resting level) was significantly smaller in IVF-FF and ICSI patient groups than in donors. All samples were further analysed by plotting, for each cell, the relationship between resting fluorescence intensity and the progesterone-induced fluorescence increment. In donor samples these plots overlaid closely and had a gradient of ≈ 2 and plots for most IVF(+ve) samples closely resembled the donor distribution. However, in a subset (≈ 10%) of IVF(+ve) samples, 3/8 IVF-FF samples and one-third of ICSI samples the gradient of the plot was significantly lower, indicating that the response to progesterone of the cells in these samples was abnormally small. Examination of the relationship between gradient (regression coefficient of the plot) in IVF samples and fertilization rate showed a positive correlation. In IVF-FF and ICSI groups, the proportion of cells in which a response to progesterone could be detected was significantly lower than in donors and IVF (+ve) patients. Approximately 20% of cells in donor, IVF(+ve) and ICSI samples generated [Ca2+]i oscillations when challenged with progesterone but in IVF-FF samples only ≈ 10% of cells generated oscillations and there was a significantly greater proportion of samples where no oscillations were observed. Levels of hyperactivated motility were lower in IVF(+ve) and IVF-FF groups compared to controls, IVF-FF also having lower levels than IVF(+ve). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION This is an in vitro study and caution must be taken when extrapolating these results in vivo. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This study reveals important details of impaired [Ca2+]i signalling in sperm from sub-fertile men that cannot be detected in population studies. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was funded by a MRC project grant (MR/M012492/1; MR/K013343/1). Additional funding was provided by Chief Scientist Office/NHS research Scotland.
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- 2018
12. Rossby number similarity of an atmospheric RANS model using limited-length-scale turbulence closures extended to unstable stratification
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van der Laan, Maarten Paul, Kelly, Mark C., Floors, Rogier, Peña, Alfredo, van der Laan, Maarten Paul, Kelly, Mark C., Floors, Rogier, and Peña, Alfredo
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The design of wind turbines and wind farms can be improved by increasing the accuracy of the inflow models representing the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work we employ one-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations of the idealized atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), using turbulence closures with a length-scale limiter. These models can represent the mean effects of surface roughness, Coriolis force, limited ABL depth, and neutral and stable atmospheric conditions using four input parameters: the roughness length, the Coriolis parameter, a maximum turbulence length, and the geostrophic wind speed. We find a new model-based Rossby similarity, which reduces the four input parameters to two Rossby numbers with different length scales. In addition, we extend the limited-length-scale turbulence models to treat the mean effect of unstable stratification in steady-state simulations. The original and extended turbulence models are compared with historical measurements of meteorological quantities and profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer for different atmospheric stabilities.
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- 2020
13. Foreign aid, public investment, and the informal economy.
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Chatterjee, Santanu, Kelly, Mark C., and Turnovsky, Stephen J.
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INTERNATIONAL economic assistance , *PUBLIC investments , *INFORMAL sector , *RECESSIONS , *ECONOMIC expansion - Abstract
This paper examines the absorption of foreign aid in the presence of formal and informal production. Calibrating a two‐sector open economy model to 67 aid‐recipient countries for 1990–2019, we show that an increase in foreign aid drives resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. With untied aid, the expansion of the informal sector can lead to an economic contraction through the Dutch Disease effect. An economic expansion with an increase in the share of formal production can be attained by re‐allocating existing aid to public investment rather than an increase in the aggregate level of aid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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14. Impact of wind-speed ramps on turbines: from fluid-dynamic to aeroelastic simulation, via observed joint statistics
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Kelly, Mark C., Andersen, Søren Juhl, and Hannesdóttir, Ásta
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This report documents DTU contributions to Carbon Trust’s Offshore Wind Accelerator (OWA) project, entitled “OWA Impact of Gusts on Loads and Power Production”; it was subcontracted through the Fraser-Nash Consultancy (‘FNC’). The focus of DTU’s work—and the original design of the project—is detection of wind speed ramps and statistical characterization of their relevant metrics, and their effects on a wind farm. The latter is done through a model chain including large-eddy simulation coupled to constrained Mann-model turbulence simulation and the aeroelastic code Flex5; the simulated wind farm and models’ configurations were chosen to compare with the Rødsand 2 (R2) windfarm. FNC analysed limited SCADA and mast data from R2, whereas DTU’s work used data from Høvsøre; this is because the R2 mast data was from heights below hub and did not cover 1 year—thus making it unusable for ramp statistics affecting the current generation of wind turbines. In terms of the OWA project, this report covers work package 2 (‘event detection’) and WP3 (‘modelling’).
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- 2019
15. Uncertainty in vertical extrapolation of measured wind speed via shear
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Kelly, Mark C.
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- 2019
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16. Estimation of offshore extreme wind from wind‐wave coupled modeling
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Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, primary, Du, Jianting, additional, Bolaños, Rodolfo, additional, Imberger, Marc, additional, Kelly, Mark C., additional, Badger, Merete, additional, and Larsen, Søren, additional
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- 2019
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17. A universal wind profile for the inversion-capped neutral atmospheric boundary layer
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Kelly, Mark C., Cersosimo, Roberto Alessio, Berg, Jacob, Kelly, Mark C., Cersosimo, Roberto Alessio, and Berg, Jacob
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- 2019
18. Estimation of offshore extreme wind from wind-wave coupled modeling
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Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Du, Jianting, Bolaños, Rodolfo, Imberger, Marc, Kelly, Mark C., Badger, Merete, Larsen, Søren, Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Du, Jianting, Bolaños, Rodolfo, Imberger, Marc, Kelly, Mark C., Badger, Merete, and Larsen, Søren
- Abstract
A coupledwind-wave modeling system is used to simulate 23 years of storms and estimate offshore extreme wind statistics. In this system, the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Spectral Wave model for Near shore (SWAN) are coupled, through a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) that is implemented in SWAN. The WBLM calculates momentum and turbulence kinetic energy budgets, using them to transfer wave-induced stress to the atmospheric modeling. While such coupling has a trivial impact on the wind modeling for 10-m wind speeds less than 20 ms −1 , the effect becomes appreciable for stronger winds—both compared with uncoupled WRF modeling and with standard parameterization schemes for roughness length. The coupled modeling output is shown to be satisfactory compared with measurements, in terms of the distribution of surface-drag coefficient with wind speed. The coupling is also shown to be important for estimation of extreme winds offshore, where the WBLM-coupled results match observations better than results from noncoupled modeling, as supported by measurements from a number of stations.
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- 2019
19. Extreme wind fluctuations: Joint statistics, extreme turbulence, and impact on wind turbine loads
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Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov, Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., and Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov
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For measurements taken over a decade at the coastal Danish site Høvsøre, we find the variance associated with wind speed events from the offshore direction to exceed the prescribed extreme turbulence model (ETM) of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-1 Edition 3 standard for wind turbine safety. The variance of wind velocity fluctuations manifested during these events is not due to extreme turbulence; rather, it is primarily caused by ramp-like increases in wind speed associated with larger-scale meteorological processes. The measurements are both linearly detrended and high-pass filtered in order to investigate how these events – and such commonly used filtering – affect the estimated 50-year return period of turbulence levels. High-pass filtering the measurements with a cutoff frequency of 1/300 Hz reduces the 50-year turbulence levels below that of IEC ETM class C, whereas linear detrending does not. This is seen as the high-pass filtering more effectively removes variance associated with the ramp-like events. The impact of the observed events on a wind turbine are investigated using aeroelastic simulations that are driven by constrained turbulence simulation fields. Relevant wind turbine component loads from the simulations are compared with the extreme turbulence load case prescribed by the IEC standard. The loads from the event simulations are on average lower for all considered load components, with one exception: ramp-like events at wind speeds between 8 and 16 m s−1, at which the wind speed rises to exceed rated wind speed, can lead to high thrust on the rotor, resulting in extreme tower-base fore–aft loads that exceed the extreme turbulence load case of the IEC standard.
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- 2019
20. Detection and characterization of extreme wind speed ramps
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Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., Hannesdóttir, Ásta, and Kelly, Mark C.
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The present study introduces a new method to characterize ramp-like wind speed fluctuations, including coherent gusts. This method combines two well-known methods: the continuous wavelet transform and the fitting of an analytical form based on the error function. The method provides estimation of ramp amplitude and rise time, and is herein used to statistically characterize ramp-like fluctuations at three different measurement sites. Together with the corresponding amplitude of wind direction change, the ramp amplitude and rise time variables are compared to the extreme coherent gust with direction change from the IEC wind turbine safety standard. From the comparison we find that the observed amplitudes of the estimated fluctuations do not exceed the one prescribed in the standard, but the rise time is generally much longer, on average around 200 s. The direction change does however exceed the one prescribed in the standard several times, but for those events the rise time is a minute or more. We also demonstrate a general pattern in the statistical behaviour of the characteristic ramp variables, noting their wind speed dependence, or lack thereof, at the different sites.
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- 2019
21. Power curve and wake analyses of the Vestas multi-rotor demonstrator
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van der Laan, Paul, Andersen, Søren Juhl, Ramos García, Néstor, Angelou, Nikolas, Pirrung, Georg, Ott, Søren, Sjöholm, Mikael, Sørensen, Kim Hylling, Neto, Julio Xavier Vianna, Kelly, Mark C., Mikkelsen, Torben Krogh, Larsen, Gunner Chr., van der Laan, Paul, Andersen, Søren Juhl, Ramos García, Néstor, Angelou, Nikolas, Pirrung, Georg, Ott, Søren, Sjöholm, Mikael, Sørensen, Kim Hylling, Neto, Julio Xavier Vianna, Kelly, Mark C., Mikkelsen, Torben Krogh, and Larsen, Gunner Chr.
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Numerical simulations of the Vestas multi-rotor demonstrator (4R-V29) are compared with field measurements of power performance and remote sensing measurements of the wake deficit from a short-range WindScanner lidar system. The simulations predict a gain of 0 %–2 % in power due to the rotor interaction at below rated wind speeds. The power curve measurements also show that the rotor interaction increases the power performance below the rated wind speed by 1.8 %, which can result in a 1.5 % increase in the annual energy production. The wake measurements and numerical simulations show four distinct wake deficits in the near wake,which merge into a single-wake structure further downstream. Numerical simulations also show that the wake recovery distance of a simplified 4R-V29 wind turbine is 1.03–1.44 Deq shorter than for an equivalent single-rotor wind turbine with a rotor diameter Deq. In addition, the numerical simulations show that the added wake turbulence of the simplified 4R-V29 wind turbine is lower in the far wake compared with the equivalent single-rotor wind turbine. The faster wake recovery and lower far-wake turbulence of such a multi-rotor wind turbine has the potential to reduce the wind turbine spacing within a wind farm while providing the same production output.
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- 2019
22. Wave boundary layer model in SWAN revisited
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Du, Jianting, Bolaños, Rodolfo, Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Kelly, Mark C., Du, Jianting, Bolaños, Rodolfo, Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, and Kelly, Mark C.
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In this study we extend the work presented in Du et al. (2017) to make the WBLM applicable for real cases by improving the wind input and white-capping dissipation source functions. Improvement via the new source terms includes three aspects. First, the WBLM wind-input source function is developed by considering the impact of wave-induced wind profile variation on the estimation of wave growth rate. Second, the white-capping dissipation source function is revised to be not explicitly dependent on wind speed for real wave simulations. Third, several improvements are made to the numerical WBLM algorithm, which increase the model's numerical stability and computational efficiency. The improved WBLM wind-input and white-capping dissipation source functions are calibrated through idealized fetch-limited and depth-limited studies, and validated in real wave simulations during two North Sea storms. The new WBLM source terms show better performance in the simulation of significant wave height and mean wave period than the original source terms.
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- 2019
23. Implementation of large-scale average geostrophic wind shear in WAsP12.1
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Floors, Rogier Ralph, Troen, Ib, and Kelly, Mark C.
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The vertical extrapolation model described in the European Wind Atlas Troen and Petersen (1989) is modified to take into account large-scale average geostrophic wind shear to describe the effect of horizontal temperature gradients on the geostrophic wind. The method is implemented by extracting the average geostrophic wind shear from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataand the values of nearest grid point are automatically used in the WAsP 12.1 user interface to provide better AEP predictions.
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- 2018
24. Wind Turbine Acoustic Day 2018 - Summary of the 3rd edition
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Mogensen, Jesper, Søndergaard, Bo, Hünerbein, Sabine Von, Søndergaard, Lars S., Hansen, Tomas R., Hurault, Jérémy, Bertagnolio, Franck, Kelly, Mark C., Shen, Wen Zhong, Bak, Christian, and Fischer, Andreas
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The bi-annual event entitled Wind Turbine Acoustic Day dealing with wind turbine noise issues organized by DTU Wind Energy took place on May, 17th 2018 as its third edition. The abstracts and slides for the presentations are reported.
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- 2018
25. From wind to loads: wind turbine site-specific load estimation with surrogate models trained on high-fidelity load databases
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Dimitrov, Nikolay, primary, Kelly, Mark C., additional, Vignaroli, Andrea, additional, and Berg, Jacob, additional
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- 2018
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26. From standard wind measurements to spectral characterization: turbulence length scale and distribution
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Kelly, Mark C. and Kelly, Mark C.
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- 2018
27. Simplification and Validation of a Spectral-Tensor Model for Turbulence Including Atmospheric Stability
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Chougule, Abhijit, Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., Larsen, Gunner Chr., Chougule, Abhijit, Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., and Larsen, Gunner Chr.
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A spectral-tensor model of non-neutral, atmospheric-boundary-layer turbulence is evaluated using Eulerian statistics from single-point measurements of the wind speed and temperature at heights up to 100 m, assuming constant vertical gradients of mean wind speed and temperature. The model has been previously described in terms of the dissipation rate epsilon, the length scale of energy-containing eddies L, a turbulence anisotropy parameter Gamma, the Richardson number Ri, and the normalized rate of destruction of temperature variance eta(theta) equivalent to epsilon(theta)/epsilon. Here, the latter two parameters are collapsed into a single atmospheric stability parameter z/L usingMonin-Obukhov similarity theory, where z is the height above the Earth's surface, and L is the Obukhov length corresponding to {Ri ,eta(theta)}. Model outputs of the one-dimensional velocity spectra, as well as cospectra of the streamwise and/or vertical velocity components, and/or temperature, and cross-spectra for the spatial separation of all three velocity components and temperature, are compared with measurements. As a function of the four model parameters, spectra and cospectra are reproduced quite well, but horizontal temperature fluxes are slightly underestimated in stable conditions. In moderately unstable stratification, our model reproduces spectra only up to a scale similar to 1 km. The model also overestimates coherences for vertical separations, but is less severe in unstable than in stable cases.
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- 2018
28. From wind to loads: wind turbine site-specific load estimation with surrogate models trained on high-fidelity load databases
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Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov, Kelly, Mark C., Vignaroli, Andrea, Berg, Jacob, Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov, Kelly, Mark C., Vignaroli, Andrea, and Berg, Jacob
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We define and demonstrate a procedure for quick assessment of site-specific lifetime fatigue loads using simplified load mapping functions (surrogate models), trained by means of a database with high-fidelity load simulations. The performance of five surrogate models is assessed by comparing site-specific lifetime fatigue load predictions at 10 sites using an aeroelastic model of the DTU 10MW reference wind turbine. The surrogate methods are polynomial chaos expansion, quadratic response surface, universal Kriging, importance sampling, and nearest-neighbor interpolation. Practical bounds for the database and calibration are defined via nine environmental variables, and their relative effects on the fatigue loads are evaluated by means of Sobol sensitivity indices. Of the surrogate-model methods, polynomial chaos expansion provides an accurate and robust performance in prediction of the different site-specific loads. Although the Kriging approach showed slightly better accuracy, it also demanded more computational resources.
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- 2018
29. Statistical prediction of far-field wind-turbine noise, with probabilistic characterization of atmospheric stability
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Kelly, Mark C., Barlas, Emre, Sogachev, Andrey, Kelly, Mark C., Barlas, Emre, and Sogachev, Andrey
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Here we provide statistical low-order characterization of noise propagation from a single wind turbine, as affected by mutually interacting turbine wake and environmental conditions. This is accomplished via a probabilistic model, applied to an ensemble of atmospheric conditions based upon atmospheric stability; the latter follows from the basic form for stability distributions established by Kelly and Gryning [Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 136, 377–390 (2010)]. For each condition, a parabolic-equation acoustic propagation model is driven by an atmospheric boundary-layer (“ABL”) flow model; the latter solves Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations of momentum and temperature, including the effects of stability and the ABL depth, along with the drag due to the wind turbine. Sound levels are found to be highest downwind for modestly stable conditions not atypical of mid-latitude climates, and noise levels are less elevated for very stable conditions, depending on ABL depth. The probabilistic modelling gives both the long-term (ensemble-mean) noise level and the variability as a function of distance, per site-specific atmospheric stability statistics. The variability increases with the distance; for distances beyond 3 km downwind, this variability is the highest for stability distributions that are modestly dominated by stable conditions. However, mean noise levels depend on the widths of the stable and unstable parts of the stability distribution, with more stably-dominated climates leading to higher mean levels.
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- 2018
30. Extreme variance vs. turbulence: What can the IEC cover?
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Ásta Hannesdóttir, Kelly, Mark C., and Nikolay Krasimirov Dimitrov
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- 2017
31. A new k-epsilon model consistent with Monin-Obukhov similarity theory
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van der Laan, Paul, Kelly, Mark C., and Sørensen, Niels N.
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Atmospheric stability ,RANS ,Monin–Obukhov similarity theory ,k-ε eddy viscosity model ,CFD - Abstract
A new k-" model is introduced that is consistent with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST). The proposed k-" model is compared with another k-" model that was developed in an attempt to maintain inlet profiles compatible with MOST. It is shown that the previous k-" model is not consistent with MOST for unstable conditions, while the proposed k-" model can maintain MOST inlet profiles over distances of 50 km.
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- 2017
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32. Extreme winds and waves for offshore turbines: Coupling atmosphere and wave modeling for design and operation in coastal zones
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Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Bolanos, Rodolfo, Du, Jianting, Kelly, Mark C., Kofoed-Hansen, Henrik, Larsen, Søren Ejling, Karagali, Ioanna, Badger, Merete, Hahmann, Andrea N., Imberger, Marc, Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob, Jackson, Sara, Volker, Patrick, Svenstrup Petersen, Ole, Jenkins, Alastair, and Graham, Angus
- Abstract
The X-WiWa project was motivated by Denmark's long term vision for off-shore wind energy and the many technical and scientic challenges in existing methodologies for assessing the design parameters, for both winds and waves.X-WiWa succeeded in developing a most up-to-date modeling system for wind modeling for oshore wind farms. This modeling system consists of the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the wave modelSWAN and an interface the Wave Boundary Layer Model WBLM, within the framework of coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system COAWST (Hereinafter the WRF-WBLM-SWAN model). WBLM is implementedin SWAN, and it calculates stress and kinetic energy budgets in the lowest atmospheric layer where the wave-induced stress is introduced to the atmospheric modeling. WBLM ensures consistent calculation of stress for both the atmospheric and wave modeling, which was considered a major improvement to previous attempts in the literature. This methodology thus provides an option to avoid the parametrization of an often used interface parameter, the roughness length. Many parametrization schemes for the roughness length have brought diverse estimates and associated uncertainties to the modelled wind speed. Data validation using measurements from the Baltic Sea and North Sea around Denmark suggests that the coupled modeling system WRF-WBLM-SWAN outperforms the non-coupled, no-wave, WRF modeling of wind; an improvement by 10% or more is present at strong winds, which can aect the choice of the off-shore wind turbine type.X-WiWa examined various methodologies for wave modeling. The offline coupling system using atmospheric data such as WRF or global reanalysis wind field to the MIKE 21 SW model has been improved with considerations of stability,air density, currents and new wind drag relations. X-WiWa suggests that, implementation of an online coupling technology does not necessarily provide better estimation of the waves, if the physics have not been properly described. This issupported by the comparisons of the modeled wave data between offline MIKE 21 SW modeling and the WRF-WBLM-SWAN modeling. The two provide comparably good wave calculations for coastal areas but the latter underestimatesthe wave height for far offshore areas, which is speculated to be related to the dissipation description in the wave source functions, where further improvement is seen necessary. X-WiWa puts modeling efforts on storms that are defined to be contributors to the extreme wind and extreme significant wave height through the annual maximum method. Thus for 23 years from 1994 to 2016, 429 storm days are simulated for the extreme wind, and for 1994 to 2014, 932 storm days are simulated for the extreme signicant wave height. The 50-year winds at 10 m, 50 m and 100 m over the waters around Denmark are calculated and validated and agreement is satisfactory. The 50-year significant wave height for the Danish waters and surrounding North Sea and Baltic Sea are presented from the online and offline systems. The modeling systems, data, analysis, results and publications are introduced and provided on www.xwiwa.dk. These outputs are expected to be useful for general offshore wind and wave applications such as Operation and Maintenance, Forecasting, and Design.
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- 2017
33. Uncertainty in vertical extrapolation of wind statistics: shear-exponent and WAsP/EWA methods
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Kelly, Mark C.
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High Energy Physics::Lattice ,DTU Wind Energy E-0121 ,DTU Wind Energy E-121 - Abstract
This report provides formulations for estimation of uncertainties involved in vertical extrapolation of winds, as well as the total uncertainty incurred when winds observed at one height are extrapolated to turbine hub height for wind resource assessment. This includes new derivations for uncertainties inherent in determination of (wind) shear exponents, and subsequent vertical extrapolation of wind speeds. The report further outlines application of the theory and results of Kelly & Troen (2014-6) for gauging the uncertainty inherent in use of the European Wind Atlas (EWA) / WAsP method for vertical extrapolation. Lastly, a section has been added that compares the uncertainty in the two aforementioned methods. The independently-derived forms corresponding to each vertical extrapolation method give uncertainty estimates that are essentially the same for small vertical extrapolations (푧pred/푧obs); for larger extrapolations, WAsP-based extrapolation leads to smaller estimated uncertainties than the shear-extrapolation method.A primary motivation for—and part of—this work is the creation of a standard for uncertainty estimation and reporting, which is known as the IEC61400-15. The author is actively contributing to this emerging standard, and the work herein thus far constitutes (most of) the vertical extrapolation portion of the IEC 61400-15 draft.
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- 2016
34. MyWindTurbine – Energy Yield Calculations
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Bechmann, Andreas, Conti, Davide, Davis, Neil, Hansen, Brian Ohrbeck, Kelly, Mark C., Mortensen, Niels Gylling, Nielsen, Morten, Badger, Jake, and Pena Diaz, Alfredo
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- 2016
35. Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes
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Larsen, Søren Ejling, Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans, Kelly, Mark C., Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Ott, Søren, and Jørgensen, E.R.
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DTU Wind Energy-E-0109 ,DTU Wind Energy-E-109 - Abstract
The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system for evaluation hurricane extreme wind conditions for a given offshore site. It was initiated by a grant from DNV that has as well been represented by one of the authors in this report. Finally, we wish to emphasize the debt of this report to an earlier work at the DTU-Wind Energy Department on “Extreme winds in the North Pacific” (Ott, 2006).
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- 2016
36. Validation of buoyancy driven spectral tensor model using HATS data
- Author
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Chougule, A., Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., and Larsen, Gunner Chr.
- Abstract
We present a homogeneous spectral tensor model for wind velocity and temperature fluctuations, driven by mean vertical shear and mean temperature gradient. Results from the model, including one-dimensional velocity and temperature spectra and the associated co-spectra, are shown in this paper. The model also reproduces two-point statistics, such as coherence and phases, via cross-spectra between two points separated in space. Model results are compared with observations from the Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (HATS) field program (Horst et al. 2004). The spectral velocity tensor in the model is described via five parameters: the dissipation rate (ε), length scale of energy-containing eddies (L), a turbulence anisotropy parameter (Γ), gradient Richardson number (Ri) representing the atmospheric stability and the rate of destruction of temperature variance (ηθ).
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- 2016
- Full Text
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37. Demonstration of a Basis for Tall Wind Turbine Design, EUDP Project Final Report
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Natarajan, Anand, Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov, Madsen, Peter Hauge, Berg, Jacob, Kelly, Mark C., Larsen, Gunner Chr., Mann, Jakob, Verelst, David Robert, Dalsgaard Sørensen, John, Toft, Henrik, Abdallah, Imad, Tarp-Johansen, N.-J., Krogh, Thomas, Stærdahl, Jesper, Eriksson, Christer, Jørgensen, Erik, Klintø, Frank, and Thesbjerg, Leo
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DTU Wind Energy E-0108 ,DTU Wind Energy E-108 - Abstract
Wind turbine design using calibrated wind models have been proposed to be used in conjunction with load cases which lead to reduced uncertainties in the design of wind turbines with hub heights above 60m. These recommended wind profiles have been made for shear, wind directional change and turbulence. The wind turbulence models used in the loads simulations have been calibrated so that their model parameters reflect the atmospheric stability conditions and the quantile of turbulence intensity considered. Consequently large multi megawatt turbines being designed today can benefit from these more advanced wind inflow models. A revision of the IEC 61400-1standard is being developed and has incorporated some of the recommendations made from this project.This project demonstrated the impact of wind models by simulating wind turbine loads based on high frequency wind measurements taken between 100m and 200m altitude performed at Høvsøre in Denmark. The project also demonstrated the impact of the new wind models on load cases and the certification envelope of turbines. Further the project provided a detailed assessment of safety factors for IEC 61400-1 load cases using reliability-based procedures incorporating the new models and this has been made as an Annex to the new standard that is due to be issued.
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- 2016
38. Impact of atmospheric stability conditions on wind farm loading and production
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Larsen, Gunner Chr., Ott, Søren, Troldborg, Niels, Chougule, Abhijit S., Mann, Jakob, Machefaux, Ewan, Verelst, David Robert, Larsen, Torben J., Mirzaei, Mahmood, Bertagnolio, Franck, Kelly, Mark C., Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose, and Marion, Lucas
- Abstract
The project has created a new basis for further development and optimization of WT’s designed for WF operation. This has been accomplished through developing of more realistic modelling of WF flow fields as well as of such fields interactions with WT’s under non-neutral ABL stability conditions. On this basis a verified model complex for prediction of structural loads as well as production losses for wind turbines operating in wind farm conditions, which takes into account the effects from ABL stability conditions, is established. Thereby the way to increased reliability and cost efficiency of future wind turbines as well as to more precise prediction of the WF power output is paved.
- Published
- 2016
39. Erratum: A new k-epsilon model consistent with Monin-Obukhov similarity theory
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van der Laan, M. Paul, primary, Kelly, Mark C., additional, and Sørensen, Niels N., additional
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- 2017
- Full Text
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40. Effects of wind turbine wake on atmospheric sound propagation
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Barlas, Emre, Zhu, Wei Jun, Shen, Wen Zhong, Kelly, Mark C., Andersen, Søren Juhl, Barlas, Emre, Zhu, Wei Jun, Shen, Wen Zhong, Kelly, Mark C., and Andersen, Søren Juhl
- Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the sound propagation from a wind turbine considering the effects of wake-induced velocity deficit and turbulence. In order to address this issue, an advanced approach was developed in which both scalar and vector parabolic equations in two dimensions are solved. Flow field input was obtained using the actuator line (AL) technique with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to model the wind turbine and its wake and from an analytical wake model. The effect of incoming wind speed and atmospheric stability was investigated with the analytical wake input using a single point source. Unsteady acoustic simulations were carried out with the AL/LES input for three cases with different incoming turbulence intensity, and a moving source approach to mimic the rotating turbine blades. The results show a non-negligible effect of the wake on far-field noise prediction. Particularly under stable atmospheric conditions, SPL amplification reaches up to 7.5dB at the wake centre. Furthermore, it was observed that when the turbulence intensity level of the incoming flow is higher, the SPL difference between the moving and the steady source is lower.
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- 2017
41. Analysis of extreme wind events at Høvsøre and the effect on wind turbine loads
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Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., Mann, Jakob, Natarajan, Anand, Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., Mann, Jakob, and Natarajan, Anand
- Abstract
The IEC 61400-1 standards for wind turbines prescribe a set of requirements to ensure that wind turbines are designed to defined reliability levels. These standards take into consideration extreme wind conditions and various operational turbine load regimes, and specify the damage a wind turbine may withstand over its lifetime. The standards include an extreme turbulence model (ETM), which gives the 50-year extreme ten-minute standard deviation of wind speed as function of ten-minute wind speed at hub height. Herein observations of high wind speed variance events, where the variance exceed the ETM level are analysed. Inspection of these specific events shows that the measurements often include a sharp increase in wind speed, a ramp or a coherent gust-like structure. These structures give rise to the observed high wind speed variance, which is not resulting from extreme turbulence. The aim of this analysis is to answer the questions: 1. How are the wind-turbine loads affected by these events? 2. What atmospheric parameters give rise to the highest loads? The data used for the analysis is from a 160 m tall lighting tower in Høvsøre, which is a measurement site approximately 2 km from the west coast of Denmark. The data consists of wind speed measurements from cup anemometers and directional data from wind vanes at 60 m, 100 m and 160 m. A ten-year period with measurements from the western sector is used to identify events of high wind speed variance that exceed the ETM for a given 10-minute mean wind speed. The events are analysed and factors that might possibly contribute to extreme wind turbine loads, like wind-velocity jump, directional change and wind shear, are identified and quantified. The wind speed measurements are low pass filtered and simulated with HAWC2, which is an aeroelastic software used to simulate wind turbine response in time domain. The simulations are made for the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine. Load analysis shows t
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- 2017
42. Extreme variance vs. turbulence: What can the IEC cover?
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Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov, Hannesdóttir, Ásta, Kelly, Mark C., and Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov
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- 2017
43. Effective roughness and displacement height over forested areas, via reduced-dimension CFD
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Sogachev, Andrey, Cavar, Dalibor, Kelly, Mark C., Bechmann, Andreas, Sogachev, Andrey, Cavar, Dalibor, Kelly, Mark C., and Bechmann, Andreas
- Abstract
While extensive field campaigns as well as modern remote sensing methods based on airborne laser scans allow obtaining of detailed information about forest canopy structure, there is still a great need for simple and consistent description of vegetation roughness, as its parametrization differs significantly from one flow model to the other (e.g. CFD, mesoscale and linearized models). Here, we present a method to facilitate use of forest data, having an arbitrary level of detail, in flow models employing different types or levels of canopy drag-force prescription.
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- 2017
44. Modeling Atmospheric Turbulence via Rapid Distortion Theory: Spectral Tensor of Velocity and Buoyancy
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Chougule, Abhijit S., Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., Larsen, Gunner Chr., Chougule, Abhijit S., Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., and Larsen, Gunner Chr.
- Abstract
A spectral tensor model is presented for turbulent fluctuations of wind velocity components and temperature, assuming uniform vertical gradients in mean temperature and mean wind speed. The model is built upon rapid distortion theory (RDT) following studies by Mann and by Hanazaki and Hunt, using the eddy lifetime parameterization of Mann to make the model stationary. The buoyant spectral tensor model is driven via five parameters: the viscous dissipation rate epsilon, length scale of energy-containing eddies L, a turbulence anisotropy parameter Gamma, gradient Richardson number (Ri) representing the local atmospheric stability, and the rate of destruction of temperature variance eta(theta). Model output includes velocity and temperature spectra and associated cospectra, including those of longitudinal and vertical temperature fluxes. The model also produces two-point statistics, such as coherences and phases of velocity components and temperature. The statistics of uniformly sheared and stratified turbulence from the model are compared with atmospheric observations taken from the Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (HATS) field program, and model results fit observed one-dimensional spectra quite well. For highly unstable stratification, however, the model has deficiencies at low wavenumbers that limit its prediction of longitudinal velocity component spectra at scales on the order of 0.6 km. The model predicts coherences well for horizontal separations but overestimates vertical coherence with increasing separation. Finally, it is shown that the RDT output can deviate from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory.
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- 2017
45. Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation
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Kelly, Mark C., Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans, Kelly, Mark C., and Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans
- Abstract
In this work we relate uncertainty in background roughness length (z0) to uncertainty in wind speeds, where the latter are predicted at a wind farm location based on wind statistics observed at a different site. Sensitivity of predicted winds to roughness is derived analytically for the industry-standard European Wind Atlas method, which is based on the geostrophic drag law. We statistically consider roughness and its corresponding uncertainty, in terms of both z0 derived from measured wind speeds as well as that chosen in practice by wind engineers. We show the combined effect of roughness uncertainty arising from differing wind-observation and turbine-prediction sites; this is done for the case of roughness bias as well as for the general case. For estimation of uncertainty in annual energy production (AEP), we also develop a generalized analytical turbine power curve, from which we derive a relation between mean wind speed and AEP. Following our developments, we provide guidance on approximate roughness uncertainty magnitudes to be expected in industry practice, and we also find that sites with larger background roughness incur relatively larger uncertainties.
- Published
- 2017
46. Impact of the interfaces for wind and wave modeling - interpretation using COAWST, SAR and point measurements
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Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Du, Jianting, Bolanos, Rodolfo, Badger, Merete, Larsen, Søren Ejling, Kelly, Mark C., Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, Du, Jianting, Bolanos, Rodolfo, Badger, Merete, Larsen, Søren Ejling, and Kelly, Mark C.
- Abstract
Air and sea interacts, where winds generate waves and waves affect the winds. This topic is ever relevant for offshore functions such as shipping, portal routines, wind farm operation and maintenance. In a coupled modeling system, the atmospheric modeling and the wave modeling interfere with each other through an interface. In most modeling system the interface is described through the roughness length. The roughness length is parameterized with the basic idea of the Charnock formulation while the coefficients could be functions of simply wind speed, or wave parameters. More advanced interfaces use the stress directly, thus avoiding the uncertainties caused by parameterizations. This study examines the efficiency of the wave impact transfer to the atmospheric modeling through the two types of interfaces, roughness length and stress, through the coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment-transport (COAWST) modeling system. The roughness length has been calculated using seven schemes (Charnock, Fan, Oost, Drennen, Liu, Andreas, Taylor-Yelland). The stress approach is applied through a wave boundary layer model in SWAN. The experiments are done to a case where the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image shows the wind field affected by the coastal wave field. Point measurements from Horns Rev are used for data analysis and validation.
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- 2017
47. An improved k-ε model applied to a wind turbine wake in atmospheric turbulence
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Laan, van der, Paul Maarten, Sørensen, Niels N., Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan, Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., Troldborg, Niels, Schepers, J. Gerard, and Machefaux, Ewan
- Subjects
Physics::Fluid Dynamics ,k -ε eddy viscosity model ,RANS ,LES ,wind turbine wakes ,CFD ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,actuator disc - Abstract
An improved k-ε turbulence model is developed and applied to a single wind turbine wake in a neutral atmospheric boundary layer using a Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes solver. The proposed model includes a flow-dependent Cμ that is sensitive to high velocity gradients, e.g., at the edge of a wind turbine wake. The modified k-ε model is compared with the original k-ε eddy viscosity model, Large-Eddy Simulations and field measurements using eight test cases. The comparison shows that the velocity wake deficits, predicted by the proposed model are much closer to the ones calculated by the Large-Eddy Simulation and those observed in the measurements, than predicted by the original k-ε model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. The k-ε-fP model applied to wind farms
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Laan, van der, Paul Maarten, Sørensen, Niels N., Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan, Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., Troldborg, Niels, Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose, and Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo
- Subjects
RANS ,LES ,k-ϵ eddy-viscosity model ,Actuator disk ,Wind direction uncertainty ,CFD ,Wind turbine wake interaction - Abstract
The recently developed k-ε-fP eddy-viscosity model is applied to one on-shore and two off-shore wind farms. The results are compared with power measurements and results of the standard k-ε eddy-viscosity model. In addition, the wind direction uncertainty of the measurements is used to correct the model results with a Gaussian filter. The standard k-ε eddy-viscosity model underpredicts the power deficit of the first downstream wind turbines, whereas the k-ε-fP eddy-viscosity model shows a good agreement with the measurements. However, the difference in the power deficit predicted by the turbulence models becomes smaller for wind turbines that are located further downstream. Moreover, the difference between the capability of the turbulence models to estimate the wind farm efficiency reduces with increasing wind farm size and wind turbine spacing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. The k-ε-fP model applied to double wind turbine wakes using different actuator disk force methods
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Laan, van der, Paul Maarten, Sørensen, Niels N., Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan, Mann, Jakob, Kelly, Mark C., and Troldborg, Niels
- Subjects
Physics::Fluid Dynamics ,k -ε eddy viscosity model ,RANS ,LES ,Actuator disk ,CFD ,Wind turbine wake interaction ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
The newly developed k-ε-fP eddy viscosity model is applied to double wind turbine wake configurations in a neutral atmospheric boundary layer, using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes solver. The wind turbines are represented by actuator disks. A proposed variable actuator disk force method is employed to estimate the power production of the interacting wind turbines, and the results are compared with two existing methods: a method based on tabulated airfoil data and a method based on the axial induction from 1D momentum theory. The proposed method calculates the correct power, while the other two methods overpredict it. The results of the k-ε-fP eddy viscosity model are also compared with the original k-ε eddy viscosity model and large-eddy simulations. Compared to the large-eddy simulations-predicted velocity and power deficits, the k-ε-fP is superior to the original k-ε model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Mesoscale modeling for the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) project
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Hahmann, Andrea N., Lennard, Chris, Badger, Jake, Vincent, Claire Louise, Kelly, Mark C., Volker, Patrick J.H., Argent, Brendan, and Refslund, Joakim
- Subjects
DTU Wind Energy E-0050 (updated) ,DTU Wind Energy E-50 ,DTU-Wind-Energy-E-0050 - Abstract
This document reports on the methods used to create and the results of the two numerical wind atlases developed for the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) project. The wind atlases were created using the KAMM-WAsP method and from the output of climate-type simulations of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, respectively. The report is divided into three main parts. In the first part, we document the method used to run the mesoscale simulations and to generalize the WRF model wind climatologies, which was used for the first time in a wind atlas project. The second part compares the results from the numerical wind atlases (NWA) produced by the KAMM-WAsP with that produced with the WRF method, and verifies the two wind atlases from the two methods against the observed wind atlas (OWA) generated from wind observations from the 10 WASA masts. The KAMM-WAsP method was found to underestimate the generalized mean wind speeds at the sites (mean bias of -8.2% and mean absolute bias of 9.3%). In the WRF-based method there is, on average, a difference of 4.7% (either positive or negative) between the WRF-based NWA results and the corresponding observed values. The combined average across all the sites is an over-estimate of 2.5%. The report also documents the variability of the 62 m AGL wind speed at the 10 sites in the seasonal and diurnal time scale and compares it with the WRF-simulated winds.
- Published
- 2015
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