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1. The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms

Author

Romanello, M., Napoli, C., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Walawender, M., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beggs, P., Belesova, K., Berrang Ford, L., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cross, T., van Daalen, K., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Freyberg, C., Gasparyan, O., Gordon-Strachan, G., Graham, H., Gunther, S., Hamilton, I., Hang, Y., Hänninen, R., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heidecke, J., Hess, J., Hsu, S., Jamart, L., Jankin, S., Jay, O., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P., Kniveton, D., Kouznetsov, R., Larosa, F., Lee, J., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lotto Batista, M., Lowe, R., Odhiambo Sewe, M., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Minx, J., Mohajeri, N., Momen, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., O'Hare, M., Oliveira, C., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pega, F., Pershing, A., Rabbaniha, M., Rickman, J., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Silbert, G., Sofiev, M., Springmann, M., Stowell, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Thompson, R., Tonne, C., Treskova, M., Trinanes, J., Wagner, F., Warnecke, L., Whitcombe, H., Winning, M., Wyns, A., Yglesias-González, M., Zhang, S., Zhang, Y., Zhu, Q., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Romanello, M., Napoli, C., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Walawender, M., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beggs, P., Belesova, K., Berrang Ford, L., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cross, T., van Daalen, K., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Freyberg, C., Gasparyan, O., Gordon-Strachan, G., Graham, H., Gunther, S., Hamilton, I., Hang, Y., Hänninen, R., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heidecke, J., Hess, J., Hsu, S., Jamart, L., Jankin, S., Jay, O., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P., Kniveton, D., Kouznetsov, R., Larosa, F., Lee, J., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lotto Batista, M., Lowe, R., Odhiambo Sewe, M., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Minx, J., Mohajeri, N., Momen, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., O'Hare, M., Oliveira, C., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pega, F., Pershing, A., Rabbaniha, M., Rickman, J., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Silbert, G., Sofiev, M., Springmann, M., Stowell, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Thompson, R., Tonne, C., Treskova, M., Trinanes, J., Wagner, F., Warnecke, L., Whitcombe, H., Winning, M., Wyns, A., Yglesias-González, M., Zhang, S., Zhang, Y., Zhu, Q., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Published
2023

5. Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown

Author

Di Napoli, C, McGushin, A, Romanello, M, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Cai, W, Chambers, J, Dasgupta, S, Escobar, LE, Kelman, I, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, McMichael, C, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Murray, KA, Rabbaniha, M, Semenza, JC, Shi, L, Tabatabaei, M, Trinanes, JA, Vu, BN, Brimicombe, C, Robinson, EJ, Di Napoli, C, McGushin, A, Romanello, M, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Cai, W, Chambers, J, Dasgupta, S, Escobar, LE, Kelman, I, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, McMichael, C, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Murray, KA, Rabbaniha, M, Semenza, JC, Shi, L, Tabatabaei, M, Trinanes, JA, Vu, BN, Brimicombe, C, and Robinson, EJ

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the "Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change", an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics. DISCUSSION: This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change's impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators' relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge

Published
2022

6. Dealing with Antarcticness: the ABC of effective Antarctic teams

Author

Kelman, Ilan, Kelman, I ( Ilan ), Schmutz, Jan B; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0181-807X, Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro, Eppich, Walter J; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4127-2825, Antino, Mirko, Kelman, Ilan, Kelman, I ( Ilan ), Schmutz, Jan B; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0181-807X, Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro, Eppich, Walter J; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4127-2825, and Antino, Mirko

Published
2022

7. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Author

Romanello, M., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Ford, L., Belesova, K., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., van Daalen, K., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L., Georgeson, L., Graham, H., Gunther, S., Hamilton, I., Hang, Y., Hänninen, R., Hartinger, S., He, K., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jamart, L., Jay, O., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Batista, M., Lowe, R., MacGuire, F., Sewe, M., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Minx, J., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., O'Hare, M., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Silbert, G., Sofiev, M., Springmann, M., Stowell, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias-González, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Romanello, M., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Ford, L., Belesova, K., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., van Daalen, K., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L., Georgeson, L., Graham, H., Gunther, S., Hamilton, I., Hang, Y., Hänninen, R., Hartinger, S., He, K., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jamart, L., Jay, O., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Batista, M., Lowe, R., MacGuire, F., Sewe, M., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Minx, J., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., O'Hare, M., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Silbert, G., Sofiev, M., Springmann, M., Stowell, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias-González, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Published
2022
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8. Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

Author

Charnley, GEC, Kelman, I, Green, N, Gaythorpe, KAM, Murray, KA, Hinsley, W, and Natural Environment Research Council

Subjects
1108 Medical Microbiology, 1103 Clinical Sciences, Microbiology, 0605 Microbiology
Abstract

Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This work was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council [NE/S007415] as part of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environments (Imperial College London) Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet Doctoral Training Partnership. We also acknowledge joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development [MR/R0156600/1].

Published
2021

10. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

Author

Romanello, M., McGushin, A., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Hughes, N., Jamart, L., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Solano Rodriguez, B., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Chu, L., Ciampi, L., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Gunther, S.H., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heaviside, C., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J.K.W., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R.N., Semenza, J.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Hamilton, I., Romanello, M., McGushin, A., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Hughes, N., Jamart, L., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Solano Rodriguez, B., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Chu, L., Ciampi, L., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Gunther, S.H., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heaviside, C., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J.K.W., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R.N., Semenza, J.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., and Hamilton, I.

Published
2021

11. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

Author

Romanello, M, McGushin, A, Di Napoli, C, Drummond, P, Hughes, N, Jamart, L, Kennard, H, Lampard, P, Rodriguez, BS, Arnell, N, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Belesova, K, Cai, W, Campbell-Lendrum, D, Capstick, S, Chambers, J, Chu, L, Ciampi, L, Dalin, C, Dasandi, N, Dasgupta, S, Davies, M, Dominguez-Salas, P, Dubrow, R, Ebi, KL, Eckelman, M, Ekins, P, Escobar, LE, Georgeson, L, Grace, D, Graham, H, Gunther, SH, Hartinger, S, He, K, Heaviside, C, Hess, J, Hsu, S-C, Jankin, S, Jimenez, MP, Kelman, I, Kiesewetter, G, Kinney, PL, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Lee, JKW, Lemke, B, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lott, M, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, Maslin, M, McAllister, L, McMichael, C, Mi, Z, Milner, J, Minor, K, Mohajeri, N, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morrissey, K, Munzert, S, Murray, KA, Neville, T, Nilsson, M, Obradovich, N, Sewe, MO, Oreszczyn, T, Otto, M, Owfi, F, Pearman, O, Pencheon, D, Rabbaniha, M, Robinson, E, Rocklov, J, Salas, RN, Semenza, JC, Sherman, J, Shi, L, Springmann, M, Tabatabaei, M, Taylor, J, Trinanes, J, Shumake-Guillemot, J, Vu, B, Wagner, F, Wilkinson, P, Winning, M, Yglesias, M, Zhang, S, Gong, P, Montgomery, H, Costello, A, Hamilton, I, Romanello, M, McGushin, A, Di Napoli, C, Drummond, P, Hughes, N, Jamart, L, Kennard, H, Lampard, P, Rodriguez, BS, Arnell, N, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Belesova, K, Cai, W, Campbell-Lendrum, D, Capstick, S, Chambers, J, Chu, L, Ciampi, L, Dalin, C, Dasandi, N, Dasgupta, S, Davies, M, Dominguez-Salas, P, Dubrow, R, Ebi, KL, Eckelman, M, Ekins, P, Escobar, LE, Georgeson, L, Grace, D, Graham, H, Gunther, SH, Hartinger, S, He, K, Heaviside, C, Hess, J, Hsu, S-C, Jankin, S, Jimenez, MP, Kelman, I, Kiesewetter, G, Kinney, PL, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Lee, JKW, Lemke, B, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lott, M, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, Maslin, M, McAllister, L, McMichael, C, Mi, Z, Milner, J, Minor, K, Mohajeri, N, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morrissey, K, Munzert, S, Murray, KA, Neville, T, Nilsson, M, Obradovich, N, Sewe, MO, Oreszczyn, T, Otto, M, Owfi, F, Pearman, O, Pencheon, D, Rabbaniha, M, Robinson, E, Rocklov, J, Salas, RN, Semenza, JC, Sherman, J, Shi, L, Springmann, M, Tabatabaei, M, Taylor, J, Trinanes, J, Shumake-Guillemot, J, Vu, B, Wagner, F, Wilkinson, P, Winning, M, Yglesias, M, Zhang, S, Gong, P, Montgomery, H, Costello, A, and Hamilton, I

Published
2021

12. The 2020 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

Author

Watts, N, Amann, M, Arnell, N, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Beagley, J, Belesova, K, Boykoff, M, Byass, P, Cai, W, Campbell-Lendrum, D, Capstick, S, Chambers, J, Coleman, S, Dalin, C, Daly, M, Dasandi, N, Dasgupta, S, Davies, M, Di Napoli, C, Dominguez-Salas, P, Drummond, P, Dubrow, R, Ebi, KL, Eckelman, M, Ekins, P, Escobar, LE, Georgeson, L, Golder, S, Grace, D, Graham, H, Haggar, P, Hamilton, I, Hartinger, S, Hess, J, Hsu, S-C, Hughes, N, Mikhaylov, SJ, Jimenez, MP, Kelman, I, Kennard, H, Kiesewetter, G, Kinney, PL, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Lampard, P, Lemke, B, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lott, M, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, Maslin, M, McAllister, L, McGushin, A, McMichael, C, Milner, J, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morrissey, K, Munzert, S, Murray, KA, Neville, T, Nilsson, M, Sewe, MO, Oreszczyn, T, Otto, M, Owfi, F, Pearman, O, Pencheon, D, Quinn, R, Rabbaniha, M, Robinson, E, Rocklov, J, Romanello, M, Semenza, JC, Sherman, J, Shi, L, Springmann, M, Tabatabaei, M, Taylor, J, Trinanes, J, Shumake-Guillemot, J, Vu, B, Wilkinson, P, Winning, M, Gong, P, Montgomery, H, Costello, A, Watts, N, Amann, M, Arnell, N, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Beagley, J, Belesova, K, Boykoff, M, Byass, P, Cai, W, Campbell-Lendrum, D, Capstick, S, Chambers, J, Coleman, S, Dalin, C, Daly, M, Dasandi, N, Dasgupta, S, Davies, M, Di Napoli, C, Dominguez-Salas, P, Drummond, P, Dubrow, R, Ebi, KL, Eckelman, M, Ekins, P, Escobar, LE, Georgeson, L, Golder, S, Grace, D, Graham, H, Haggar, P, Hamilton, I, Hartinger, S, Hess, J, Hsu, S-C, Hughes, N, Mikhaylov, SJ, Jimenez, MP, Kelman, I, Kennard, H, Kiesewetter, G, Kinney, PL, Kjellstrom, T, Kniveton, D, Lampard, P, Lemke, B, Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Lott, M, Lowe, R, Martinez-Urtaza, J, Maslin, M, McAllister, L, McGushin, A, McMichael, C, Milner, J, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morrissey, K, Munzert, S, Murray, KA, Neville, T, Nilsson, M, Sewe, MO, Oreszczyn, T, Otto, M, Owfi, F, Pearman, O, Pencheon, D, Quinn, R, Rabbaniha, M, Robinson, E, Rocklov, J, Romanello, M, Semenza, JC, Sherman, J, Shi, L, Springmann, M, Tabatabaei, M, Taylor, J, Trinanes, J, Shumake-Guillemot, J, Vu, B, Wilkinson, P, Winning, M, Gong, P, Montgomery, H, and Costello, A

Abstract

For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Published
2021

13. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

Author

Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Coleman, S., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Di Napoli, C., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Golder, S., Grace, D., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Hughes, N., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kennard, H., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lampard, P., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Romanello, M., Semenza, K.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Coleman, S., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Di Napoli, C., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Golder, S., Grace, D., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Hughes, N., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kennard, H., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lampard, P., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Romanello, M., Semenza, K.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Abstract

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

Published
2021

14. A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration

Author

McMichael, C, Dasgupta, S, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, Kelman, I, McMichael, C, Dasgupta, S, Ayeb-Karlsson, S, and Kelman, I

Abstract

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be 'trapped' populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making.

Published
2020

18. Local Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts in St. Kitts (Caribbean Sea) and Malé, Maldives (Indian Ocean)

Author

Stancioff, C.E., Stojanov, R., Kelman, I., Nemec, D., Landa, J., Tichy, R., Prochazka, D., Brown, G., and Hofman, C.L.

Subjects
climate change, local perceptions, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, environmental change, lcsh:QC851-999, small islands
Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are now experiencing the local consequences of a changing climate, environment, and society. Nonetheless, climate change research frequently remains at regional or national levels. Without locally grounded data, islanders&rsquo, perceived impacts of the changes might not be considered, thereby causing difficulties when policy and practice responses are implemented without accounting for local understandings. To contribute to addressing this gap, this study examines perceptions of climate change and associated environmental and social changes in two SIDS case studies: St. Kitts in the Caribbean Sea and Mal&eacute, Atoll, Maldives in the Indian Ocean. Through these two case studies, we assess perceptions of changing social and natural environments through a closed-question, face-to-face survey. Our results suggest that in both island case studies, communities perceive environmental changes to be happening that demand negotiation with the social changes of daily life. Results also suggest that perceived climate change impacts are only part of the equation, as social and economic impacts reveal two case studies of changing island societies. While the geographic context in each case study differs, this study reveals the perceived impacts of climate change and social changes at a local level, providing valuable insights and angles for formulating policies and actions to deal with the myriad of social and environmental changes affecting SIDS.

Published
2018

19. The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

Author

Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L., Fernandez Montoya, L., Georgeson, L., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Sewe, M.O., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Munzert, S., Nilsson, M., Neville, T., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Phung, D., Pye, S., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Wilkinson, P., Costello, A., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L., Fernandez Montoya, L., Georgeson, L., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Sewe, M.O., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Munzert, S., Nilsson, M., Neville, T., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Phung, D., Pye, S., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J., Sherman, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Wilkinson, P., Costello, A., Gong, P., and Montgomery, H.

Abstract

The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement. The 2019 report presents an annual update of 41 indicators across five key domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the findings and consensus of 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies from every continent. Each year, the methods and data that underpin the Lancet Countdown’s indicators are further developed and improved, with updates described at each stage of this report. The collaboration draws on the world-class expertise of climate scientists; ecologists; mathematicians; engineers; energy, food, and transport experts; economists; social and political scientists; public health professionals; and doctors, to generate the quality and diversity of data required.

Published
2019

21. EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): Model performance and implications for decision-making in topographically complex regions

Author

Foley, Aideen and Kelman, I.

Subjects
geog
Abstract

Due to their scale and complex topography, islands such as the Hebrides and Shetland Islands are not fully resolved by global climate models, which may impact the quality of data that can be provided about future climate in such locations. In principle, dynamical downscaling may provide helpful additional detail about future local climate. However, there is also the potential for error and uncertainty to cascade through to the regional simulation. Here, we evaluate the simulative skill of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble on regional and local scales in the Hebrides and Shetland Islands, and consider the potential for such models to aid decision-making in island settings, and other locations characterised by complex topography. Several precipitation indices (accumulated precipitation amount, mean daily precipitation amount, max 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts, simple daily intensity, number of heavy and very heavy precipitation days) are used to assess model performance and identify bias relative to observations. Models are compared regionally, and at specific locations, namely Stornoway in the Hebrides and Lerwick in Shetland, for the period 1971-2000. Regional evaluation utilises the UKCP09 gridded observational dataset and local evaluation at Stornoway Airport and Lerwick utilises observed mean precipitation and extreme indices from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project. While no models perform skilfully across all the metrics studied, some models capture aspects of the precipitation climate at each location particularly well. Differences in model performance between the two case study sites highlight the value of evaluating models on multiple spatial scales. The implications of model uncertainty for decision-making are also discussed.

Published
2018

22. The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

Author

Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Berry, H., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Depoux, A., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Ebi, K., Ekins, P., Montoya, L.F., Fischer, H., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lemke, B., Liang, L., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Sewe, M.O., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., Mikhaylov, S.J., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Nilsson, M., Neville, T., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Pye, S., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Saxer, O., Schütte, S., Semenza, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Steinbach, R., Tabatabaei, M., Tomei, J., Trinanes, J., Wheeler, N., Wilkinson, P., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Berry, H., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Depoux, A., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Ebi, K., Ekins, P., Montoya, L.F., Fischer, H., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lemke, B., Liang, L., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Sewe, M.O., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., Mikhaylov, S.J., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Nilsson, M., Neville, T., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Pye, S., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Saxer, O., Schütte, S., Semenza, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Steinbach, R., Tabatabaei, M., Tomei, J., Trinanes, J., Wheeler, N., Wilkinson, P., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Abstract

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement.

Published
2018

23. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health

Author

Watts, N., Amann, M., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cox, P.M., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Depledge, M., Depoux, A., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Ekins, P., Flahault, A., Frumkin, H., Georgeson, L., Ghanei, M., Grace, D., Graham, H., Grojsman, R., Haines, A., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Johnson, A., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kniveton, D., Liang, L., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Mace, G., Odhiambo Sewe, M., Maslin, M., Mikhaylov, S., Milner, J., Latifi, A.M., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pencheon, D., Pye, S., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Schütte, S., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Steinbach, R., Tabatabaei, M., Wheeler, N., Wilkinson, P., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Watts, N., Amann, M., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cox, P.M., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Davies, M., Depledge, M., Depoux, A., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Ekins, P., Flahault, A., Frumkin, H., Georgeson, L., Ghanei, M., Grace, D., Graham, H., Grojsman, R., Haines, A., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Johnson, A., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kniveton, D., Liang, L., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Mace, G., Odhiambo Sewe, M., Maslin, M., Mikhaylov, S., Milner, J., Latifi, A.M., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Murray, K., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Oreszczyn, T., Owfi, F., Pencheon, D., Pye, S., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Schütte, S., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Steinbach, R., Tabatabaei, M., Wheeler, N., Wilkinson, P., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Published
2018

24. The role of local stakeholder participation in flood defence decisions in the United Kingdom and Germany

Author

Begg, Chloe, Callsen, Ines, Kuhlicke, Christian, Kelman, I., Begg, Chloe, Callsen, Ines, Kuhlicke, Christian, and Kelman, I.

Abstract

An important aspect of integrated flood risk management (FRM) around the world is accepted as being the involvement of a range of stakeholders in flood‐related decision‐making processes. Achieving local stakeholder participation in ways that lead to the expected benefits is burdened by challenges and difficulties. By drawing on examples of practices of local stakeholder participation in FRM in two European countries, the United Kingdom and Germany, this paper aims to understand the extent to which local stakeholders are able to influence FRM. Empirically, the paper focuses on flood defence planning and implementation‐related decisions as they still remain the dominant approach of managing flood risks in those locations. The findings from the two case studies show that involvement of local stakeholders in decisions related to flood defence schemes is limited and likely to lead to conflict and frustration as well as, potentially, a strengthening of inequalities. These lessons have implications for the United Kingdom and Germany as well as for other locations around the world.

Published
2017

26. Ch27

Author

Kelman, Ilan

Published
2017

29. Prevention of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis with low dose aspirin: Pulmonary Embolism Prevention (PEP) trial

Author

O'Brien, J, Duncan, H, Kirsh, G, Allen, V, King, P, Hargraves, R, Mendes, L, Perera, T, Catto, P, Schofield, S, Ploschke, H, Hefner, T, Churchland, M, Woolnough, S, Wuttke, R, Manning, M, Jeffries, T, Hensley, L, Bath, P, Bainbridge, D, Guinane, F, McMahon, L, Zavattaro, D, Wilson, D, Blake, K, Morton, J, Sharman, D, Locke, R, Ghabrial, J, McNeil, S, Rehfisch, P, van der Merwe, S, Einoder, B, Douglas, D, Ashwell, J, Morrissey, A, Brown, A, Simm, R, Fisch, G, Crawford, W, Everding, T, Tanham, D, Hooper, J, Aldana, C, Goldwasser, M, Mibus, M, Rowden, N, Mills, J, Johnson, P, Stilwell, J, Williams, R, Stevenson, T, Zwar, J, Bauze, R, Nyunt, B, Russell, R, Day, G, Cameron, M, Clements, P, Beck, T, Ellis, A, Phipps, S, Quaill, W, Skirving, A, McGuiness, M, Gray, P, Rankin, J, Wood, D, Senior, J, Courtenay, B, Green, M, Harris, I, Rush, J, Kilgour, M, Davies, J, Newcombe, J, Lewis, C, Leitl, S, Chilcott, R, Pianta, R, Aguila, A, Hawe, C, Nade, S, Smith, M, Robertson, P, Rothwell, A, May, S, Williams, S, Shamy, S, Martin, G, Steele, V, Jeffery, K, Kelman, I, McKillan, J, Dayaram, P, Culling, J, Lawson, D, Winfield, P, Kuzel, R, Milburn, C, Palmer, N, Pitts, A, Lamb, G, Prodan, L, Gray, H, Walker, K, Smith, K, Newton, C, Atkinson, D, Fail, B, Panting, A, Menzies, J, Watkiss, A, Outhred, J, Clay, D, Lander, R, Fou, R, Clarke, DS, Murrell, T, Rolleston, B, Keyworth, S, Medlicott, P, Woods, T, Dawe, C, Waldron, R, Taine, W, Le Roy, L, Smith, A, Cowley, G, Campbell, C, Maxwell, R, Elvy, M, Thurston, A, Newth, S, Cousins, L, Sanderson, M, MacMillan, C, Golele, R, Walters, J, Kruger, S, Ramsden, T, Joseph, H, Gantz, D, Steyn, S, Hadjichristofis, S, Nojoko, L, Snowdowne, R, Botha, M, Knebel, R, Sernbo, I, Ferris, B, Tello, E, Nevelos, A, Dunn, C, Warwick, D, Sudhakar, J, Tuite, JD, Francis, J, Wallace, ME, Jordan, A, Baird, P, Fowler, W, Ainscow, DAP, Harrison, A, Butler-Manuel, A, Broome, G, Swailes, P, Stahl, TJ, Randall, AM, Forester, AJ, Hucker, J, Redden, J, Logan, L, Howard, PW, Brownlee, D, Angus, P, Boyce, A, Porter, BB, Arbid, M, Youll, J, Ogden, AS, MacDowell, C, Beverly, M, Ramdeholl, P, Nelson, I, Howlett, I, Weeber, A, Peacock, A, Hubbard, MJS, Flanagan, M, Crawshaw, C, Kinninmonth, A, Campbell, T, Tibrewal, S, Lennox, CME, Clifford, I, Gillham, N, Hunt, M, Bulstrode, C, Handley, R, Iyer, V, Lawton, J, Robbins, J, Harper, WM, Davison, J, Hope, P, Smallbones, K, Jones, W, Ratnam, KR, Upton, J, Hirst, P, Knox, S, Sadique, T, Khan, M, Umar, M, Anderson, J, Frank, J, Briggs, P, Sanderson, P, McBride, D, Leese, K, Bayliss, NC, El-Deen, M, Banan, H, Parker, MJ, Minhas, H, Best, A, Blakeway, C, Salter, T, Foy, MA, Pollitt, A, Blayney, JDM, Davis, S, Parnell, E, Ko, C, Grover, ML, Howells, S, Williams, D, Saunders, C, Brenkel, I, Mani, G, Grizzle, M, Henderson, A, Board, T, Chadwick, CJ, Overton, M, Hodkinson, S, Macdonald, DA, Lewis, V, McDonald, RJM, Adamson, J, Bradley, J, Hodgson, E, Plewes, JL, Clarke, D, Hullin, M, Smith, J, Lemon, GJ, Greatrex, K, Miles, C, Bannister, G, Dare, J, Carden, DG, Aughton, J, Stirrat, A, Fishburn, J, Ebizie, AO, Mason, M, Irvine, G, Facey, T, Spratt, C, Kanagavel, N, Gerrard, T, Reissis, N, Tzanetos, P, Stefanotti, M, Greiss, M, Wright, V, Rahmaty, A, Archer, J, Bedford, A, Taylor, D, Griffith, M, Evans, J, Heron, K, Livingstone, B, O'Dwyer, K, Wheatley, D, Campbell, P, Dixon, P, McSweeney, L, Shanahan, MDG, Griffith, I, MacMahon, S, Rodgers, A, Collins, R, Prentice, C, Norton, R, Ockleford, P, Rutland, M, Dickinson, J, Gregg, P, Macdonald, D, Mollan, RAB, Douglas, J, Beaumont, D, Broad, J, Clark, T, Henderson, M, McCulloch, A, Neal, B, Prasad, R, Walker, N, Wood, M, Beighton, A, Bell, P, Farrell, B, Murch, K, Sharpe, N, Gordon, G, Doughty, R, Ratnasabapathy, Y, Danesh, J, Sleight, P, Peto, R, Simes, J, Keech, A, and Tri, PEP

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, Hip fracture, Aspirin, business.industry, Deep vein, medicine.medical_treatment, Hazard ratio, General Medicine, Placebo, medicine.disease, Thrombosis, Arthroplasty, Surgery, Pulmonary embolism, medicine.anatomical_structure, Anesthesia, medicine, business, medicine.drug
Abstract

Summary Background Previous trials of antiplatelet therapy for the prevention of venous thromboembolism have individually been inconclusive, but a meta-analysis of their results indicated reductions in the risks of deep-vein thrombosis and of pulmonary embolism in various high-risk groups. The aim of this large randomised placebo-controlled trial was to confirm or refute these apparent benefits. Methods During 1992–1998, 148 hospitals in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sweden and the UK randomised 13 356 patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture, and 22 hospitals in New Zealand randomised a further 4088 patients undergoing elective arthroplasty. Study treatment was 160 mg daily aspirin or placebo, started preoperatively and continued for 35 days. Patients received any other thromboprophylaxis thought necessary. Follow-up was of mortality and of in-hospital morbidity up to day 35. Findings Among the patients with hip fracture, allocation to aspirin produced proportional reductions in pulmonary embolism of 43% (95% CI 18–60; p=0·002) and in symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis of 29% (3–48; p=0·03). Pulmonary embolism or deep-vein thrombosis was confirmed in 105 (1·6%) of 6679 patients assigned aspirin compared with 165 (2·5%) of 6677 assigned placebo, which represents an absolute reduction of 9 (SE 2) per 1000 and a proportional reduction of 36% (19–50; p=0·0003). Similar proportional effects were seen in all major subgroups, including patients receiving subcutaneous heparin. Aspirin prevented 4 (1) fatal pulmonary emboli per 1000 patients (18 aspirin-group vs 43 placebo-group deaths), representing a proportional reduction of 58% (27–76; p=0·002), with no apparent effect on deaths from any other vascular cause (hazard ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·86–1·26]) or non-vascular cause (1·01 [0·84–1·23]). Deaths due to bleeding were few (13 aspirin vs 15 placebo), but there was an excess of 6 (3) postoperative transfused bleeding episodes per 1000 patients assigned aspirin (p=0·04). Among electivearthroplasty patients, rates of venous thromboembolism were lower, but the proportional effects of aspirin were compatible with those among patients with hip fracture.

Published
2000

30. Floods and migration in the Czech Republic

Author

Stojanov, R, Kelman, I, and Duží, B

Subjects
lcsh:HN1-995, forced migration, IDP, adaptation, Climatic changes, stateless, migration, disasters, relocation, climate change, flooding, internal displacement, refugee, lcsh:Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Abstract

Residents’ strategies are generally aimed at either protection from or adaptation to flooding. Large-scale migration from the floodplains of rivers has not been seriously considered, even in high-risk zones.

Published
2015

32. The role of local stakeholder participation in flood defence decisions in the United Kingdom and Germany.

Author

Begg, C., Callsen, I., Kuhlicke, C., and Kelman, I.

Subjects
FLOOD risk, WATERSHEDS, DOPPLER effect, CLIMATE change, FLOOD control
Abstract

An important aspect of integrated flood risk management (FRM) around the world is accepted as being the involvement of a range of stakeholders in flood‐related decision‐making processes. Achieving local stakeholder participation in ways that lead to the expected benefits is burdened by challenges and difficulties. By drawing on examples of practices of local stakeholder participation in FRM in two European countries, the United Kingdom and Germany, this paper aims to understand the extent to which local stakeholders are able to influence FRM. Empirically, the paper focuses on flood defence planning and implementation‐related decisions as they still remain the dominant approach of managing flood risks in those locations. The findings from the two case studies show that involvement of local stakeholders in decisions related to flood defence schemes is limited and likely to lead to conflict and frustration as well as, potentially, a strengthening of inequalities. These lessons have implications for the United Kingdom and Germany as well as for other locations around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
Full Text
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33. Diabetic foot ulcers and vascular insufficiency: our population has changed, but our methods have not

Author

David G. Armstrong, Kelman I. Cohen, William A. Marston, Manish Bharara, and Stephane Courric

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, medicine.medical_treatment, Population, Biomedical Engineering, MEDLINE, Bioengineering, Clinical study, Diabetes Complications, Internal Medicine, Medicine, Humans, Vascular insufficiency, education, Intensive care medicine, Peripheral Vascular Diseases, education.field_of_study, business.industry, medicine.disease, Diabetic foot, Diabetic Foot, Surgery, Clinical trial, Amputation, Commentary, business, Developed country
Abstract

Diabetic foot complications are increasing in prevalence worldwide. Care and attention to these complications have improved greatly. Many advanced therapies are now being investigated or taken through final stages of clinical studies worldwide. However, the data upon which assumptions regarding morbidity, healing, and mortality have been based are grossly outdated. The purpose of this brief article is to report on current data regarding neuropathic and neuroischemic wounds and to propose that the latter category of advanced-stage diabetic foot wound may now be emerging as the most commonly encountered lesion in the developed world. Unfortunately, it is still systematically excluded from most clinical study criteria. Additionally, just as in the care of cancer, we call for therapy of these advanced-stage diabetic foot ulcers to be managed in similarly interdisciplinary centers where patients may have access to potentially beneficial clinical trials.

Published
2012

34. Participatory action research and disaster risk

Author

McCall, M.K., Peters-Guarin, G., Wisner, B., Gaillard, J.C., Kelman, I., and Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management

Subjects
METIS-294591
Published
2012

37. 'Everyone likes it here'

Author

Upadhyay, H, Kelman, I, and Mohan, D

Subjects
Sea-level rise, lcsh:HN1-995, forced migration, IDP, Lakshadweep, adaptation, Climatic changes, stateless, migration, disasters, relocation, climate change, internal displacement, refugee, lcsh:Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Abstract

Sea-level rise threatens communities of the Lakshadweep islands. But what happens when belongingness, religious beliefs and the identity of being an islander make them stay?

Published
2015

38. Household measures for river flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic.

Author

Duží, B., Vikhrov, D., Kelman, I., Stojanov, R., and Juřička, D.

Subjects
FLOOD risk, FLOOD damage, CLIMATE change, FLOODS, SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC factors
Abstract

Interviews with 304 households were used to determine flood risk reduction measures adopted in the case study of the Becva River in the Czech Republic. Uptake of measures was low, irrespective of experience with floods. Financial cost seemed to be a barrier towards implementation, but more work is needed to understand the combination of factors limiting adoption of household flood risk reduction measures. Regression analysis indicated that socio-demographic factors play an important role in household decision making. More men and more children in a household support the adoption of measures. Perception of living in a flood risk zone, rather than actual experience of flooding, also positively influenced probability of adopting some measures. When a house is elevated up from ground level by 1 metre or more, the likelihood of taking further measures decreased by 20%. Further investigation of these factors and why, not just how, they influence household choices would support flood risk reduction measures, especially under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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47. Decision-Making for Flood-Threatened Properties.

Author

Begum, Selina, Stive, Marcel J. F., Hall, Jim W., and Kelman, I.

Abstract

When a flood threatens an existing property such as a dwelling or business, the owner must decide what action to take to minimise the dangers, damage, and inconvenience. Extensive material is available related to options for managing the flood vulnerability of individual properties before, during, and after floods. These sources offer comprehensive information on the possibilities which exist but rarely develop tools for determining which option might be the most appropriate in given circumstances This chapter discusses the need for, and provides some simple tools for, understanding decision-making for flood-threatened properties. The focus is on individual properties which might be threatened by floodwater, imminently (existing properties) or in the future (existing or planned properties). The decisions addressed are: • Emphasising dry or wet flood resistance: to seal or not to seal an individual property? • Reducing recovery duration: should property components be removed from the property before the flood, replaced after the flood, or dried and cleaned after the flood? • Implementing resilient reinstatement: resilient reinstatement should be a social, not property-orientated, solution. Then, the implications for the wider community context are elaborated The U.K. is used as the main case study. The discussion helps to consolidate available information in order to produce useful analytical approaches which any property owner could use. The key is to make each property owner their own expert rather than forcing them to rely on experts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2007
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48. 115 Carbohydrate?based Wound Dressings with Elastase?lowering Activity

Author

Steven C. Goheen, Dorne R. Yager, Vincent Edwards, and Kelman I. Cohen

Subjects
Chronic wound, Proteases, Protease, integumentary system, biology, medicine.diagnostic_test, Chemistry, medicine.medical_treatment, Proteolysis, Elastase, Dermatology, Fibronectin, Biochemistry, Self-healing hydrogels, medicine, biology.protein, Surgery, medicine.symptom, Wound healing
Abstract

The use of carbohydrate-based wound dressings including cotton, xerogels, charcoal cloth, alginates, and hydrogels, for chronic wounds have afforded properties such as absorbency, ease of application and removal, bacterial protection, fluid balance, occlusion, and elasticity. An additional consideration is the use of the dressing to regulate proteolysis in the non-healing wound. Elastase is a serine protease that has been associated with a variety of inflammatory diseases, and recently has been implicated as a destructive protease that impedes wound healing. The presence of elevated levels of elastase in non-healing wounds has been associated with the degradation of important growth factors and fibronectin necessary for wound healing. Here we consider the design, preparation, and assessment of carbohydrate-based wound dressings that either release protease inhibitors or act as sequestering agents to bind proteases such as elastase and thus reduce their high levels in the chronic wound. Carbohydrates ranging from small monosaccahrides up to large polysaccharides are crosslinked onto cotton wound dressings. The resulting carbohydrate conjugates of cotton cellulose possess unique properties advantageous for chronic wound treatment ranging from gelation and elasticity to elastase-sequestering properties Type in text here making sure it is in a single column format.

Published
2004

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