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While the fundamental understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) movement is fairly mature, notable advancements are still being made. This paper summarizes new concepts and updates to the existing fundamental theories on TC movement obtained from simplified barotropic models, full-physics models, and data analysis, particularly since 2014. The scope includes recent works on the interaction between a TC and its environment, and the predictability related to TC movement. Although conventional concepts of steering flow, β-gyre, and diabatic heating remain important, a more complete understanding of TC movement governing mechanisms can provide an important basis for further track forecast improvements.

Super Typhoons Hato (2017) and Mangkhut (2018) have disastrous impacts on the Philippines and South China. Their evolutions and consequences have received wide attention from various media and part...

On 23 August, 2017, Typhoon Hato rapidly intensified by 10 kt within 3 h just prior to landfall in the city of Macau along the South China coast. Hato&rsquo, s surface winds in excess of 50 m s&minus, 1 devastated the city, causing unprecedented damage and social impact. This study reveals that anomalously warm ocean conditions in the nearshore shallow water (depth &lt, 30 m) likely played a key role in Hato&rsquo, s fast intensification. In particular, cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) generated by Hato at the critical landfall point was estimated to be only 0.1&ndash, 0.5 &deg, C. The results from both a simple ocean mixing scheme and full dynamical ocean model indicate that SST cooling was minimized in the shallow coastal waters due to a lack of cool water at depth. Given the nearly invariant SST in the coastal waters, we estimate a large amount of heat flux, i.e., 1.9k W m&minus, 2, during the landfall period. Experiments indicate that in the absence of shallow bathymetry, and thus, if nominal cool water had been available for vertical mixing, the SST cooling would have been enhanced from 0.1 &deg, C to 1.4 &deg, C, and sea to air heat flux reduced by about a quarter. Numerical simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that the intensity of Hato was very sensitive to air-sea heat flux in the coastal region, indicating the critical importance of coastal ocean hydrography.

Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Many studies and existing seasonal forecasting models have examined and predicted the number of TCs (including geneses and landfalls) mainly based on the environmental factors in the peak TC season. However, these predictions can be time-consuming, computationally expensive and uncertain, depending on the efficiency and predictability of the dynamical models. Therefore, here we propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model, namely the Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) Model, for predicting the number of TCs (intensity at tropical storm or above) over the western North Pacific based on the environmental factors in the preseason. The nine categories comprising 103 candidate predictors in 1980–2015 (36 years) are systematically investigated. The best subset selection regression shows that the sea surface temperatures at the tropical North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific in April, the 500 hPa geopotential height difference between April and January at the open ocean southwest of Australia and the 700 hPa geopotential height at the North Pacific in April are the most significant predictors. The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.89. The model is successfully validated by leave-one-out, nine-fold cross-validations, and later 5 year (2016–2020) observations. The prediction of the SYSU Model exhibits a 95% hit rate in 1980–2020 (39 out of 41), suggesting an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TCs over the western North Pacific.

The typical track of a tropical cyclone (TC) in the Northern Hemisphere is an initial northwestward movement followed by an eventual turning toward the east. Such turning is referred to as recurvature and often explained by the change of the environmental flow that steers the TC. Here we show that even in the absence of background flow, a TC initiated at a high enough latitude can recurve itself. Differential horizontal advection of the planetary vorticity by the TC circulation at different vertical levels leads to the development of vertical wind shear, upper tropospheric anticyclone, and asymmetric distribution of convection. The flow associated with the upper tropospheric anticyclone on the equatorward side of the TC and the diabatic heating associated with the asymmetric convection combine to cause the TC to recurve. Such knowledge, an intrinsic recurvature property of the TC is important in forecasting the TC track when the environmental flow is weak.

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier (FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size (the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes (as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.

This paper presents to date the most complete global climatology of the size of tropical cyclones (TCs) between 1999 and 2009 using the QuikSCAT satellite data. Here, TC size is defined as the azimuthal mean radius of 17 m s−1 surface winds from the TC centre. While the TC size climatology for the Western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) has been documented in previous studies, those for the Eastern North Pacific (ENP), South Indian Ocean (SI) and South Pacific (SP) have yet to be examined in detail, which is the objective of this study. Among all the basins, TCs over the WNP are the largest and have the largest variance, while those over the ENP are the smallest. In addition, TCs in the Northern Hemisphere (WNP, NA and ENP) have two seasonal size peaks, but those in the Southern Hemisphere (SI and SP) have only one. An important finding is that for all basins, the size of a TC does not necessarily increase with latitude monotonically, but reaches the maximum at some latitudinal region. Such a result agrees well with a recent theoretical study in terms of a balance between the inertial stability associated with the TC circulation and the import of angular momentum into the TC.

The present study seeks to understand how the initial vortex intensity and outer winds influence tropical cyclone (TC) size, which is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of the 10 m 17 m s−1 wind from the TC centre (R17), using a full baroclinic model in a quiescent f-plane environment. The initial vortex intensity is found to influence the size growth rate in the developing phase of the vortex life cycle. However, when the vortex comes to the mature and/or decaying phase of the vortex life cycle, the initial vortex intensity (ranging between 20 and 40 m s−1 in this study) does not strongly affect TC size. On the other hand, vortex intensification or re-intensification resulting from inner-core dynamics is apparently favourable for size growth in most instances. In addition, the lower-tropospheric outer winds of a vortex (i.e. winds beyond R17; e.g. the environmental flows around the TC) are found to be an important factor governing size change. The outer winds closer to R17 are more effective and can influence the vortex size at an earlier stage, especially if the winds are strong. The impact of the initial lower-tropospheric outer winds on the TC size evolution appears to be more prominent than that of the initial vortex intensity. The size change is much more sensitive to the outer-core, rather than inner-core, dynamics. The higher the angular momentum (AM) beyond R17, the more the AM can be brought towards the centre and hence favour size growth, and vice versa.

This is a numerical modelling study to understand how the initial vortex size, which is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius from the tropical cyclone (TC) centre of the 10 m 17 m s−1 wind, and planetary vorticity (f) influence TC size change. Results from 16 f-plane experiments in a quiescent environment suggest that both of them are important in determining TC size change. With a given initial intensity and on the same f-plane, an initially larger TC generally has a larger size at a later stage because it has a larger horizontal wind extent and higher winds outside the inner core. The larger vortex therefore possesses higher angular momentum (AM) in the lower troposphere to increase its size in the outer-core region through AM transport. However, an initially small TC may not be ‘destined’ to be small during its lifetime, which agrees with the observation that TC size has a positive relationship with TC lifetime. In addition, a vortex can apparently grow by itself in a resting environment through fluxes of AM. A vortex at a higher latitude is also found to be not necessarily larger. Furthermore, size change is controlled to some extent by the lower-tropospheric inertial stability associated with the vortex. Consistent with observations, TC size appears to have a maximum at some optimum latitudinal region (∼ 25°N in general). All the results agree well with the AM transport concept such that the outer-core symmetric relative AM flux and Coriolis torque in the lower troposphere (especially those at the boundary layer) are important factors that govern size change.

The local tropical-cyclone-related rainfall totals largely depend on the rain rate near the center and the translation speed of a tropical cyclone. Understanding how they respond to a changing climate has been a hot topic. A recent astounding study reported a 10% slowdown in global tropical-cyclone translation speed over the past 68 years (1949–2016) and implicitly related this to the weakening of tropical circulation forced by the anthropogenic warming. It thereby suggested that it might result in more local rainfall totals in a warming climate. However, here this study shows that no robust and significant observational and modeling evidences reveal that they are. The data artefacts introduced by the changes in measurement practices, particularly the introduction of satellite capabilities since the 1970s, are likely the main source of heterogeneities leading to such disagreement. The global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed becomes indeterminate and a significant global speedup trend is even found over land if the records in more reliable satellite sensing era period starting from 1970 are examined, where this period is also the most pronounced warming period in the last half-century. The relationship between the slowdown of tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming is therefore not apparent and the relevant potential increase in local rainfall totals in the future warming climate is suspicious.

This paper is the second part of a comprehensive study on tropical cyclone (TC) size. In Part I, the climatology of TC size and strength over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic was established based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data. In this second part, the mechanisms that are likely responsible for TC size changes are explored through analyses of angular momentum (AM) transports and synoptic flow patterns associated with the TC. Changes in AM transport in the upper and lower troposphere appear to be important factors that affect TC intensity and size, respectively. The change in TC intensity is positively related to the change in the upper-tropospheric AM export, while the change in TC size is positively proportional to the change in the lower-tropospheric AM import. An examination of the synoptic flow patterns associated with WNP TCs suggests that changes in the synoptic flow near the TC are important in determining the change in TC size, with developments of the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic flows (one to the east and one to the west) bordering the TC being favorable for TC growth and a weakening of the subtropical high to the southeast for TC size reduction. A recurving TC tends to grow if the lower-tropospheric westerlies to its west increase. Moreover, a northward TC movement is related to the change in TC size. For example, a higher northward-moving speed is found for a larger TC, which also agrees well with the AM transport concept.

A comprehensive statistical climatology of the size and strength of the tropical cyclones (TCs) occurring over the western North Pacific (WNP; including the South China Sea) and the North Atlantic (NA; including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) between 1999 and 2009 is constructed based on Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data. The size and strength of a TC are defined, respectively, as the azimuthally averaged radius of 17 m s−1 of ocean-surface winds (R17) and the azimuthally averaged tangential wind within 1°–2.5°-latitude radius from the TC center (outer-core wind strength, OCS). The mean TC size and strength are found to be 2.13° latitude and 19.6 m s−1, respectively, in the WNP, and 1.83° latitude and 18.7 m s−1 in the NA. While the correlation between size and strength is strong (r ≈ 0.9), that between intensity and either size or strength is weak. Seasonally, midsummer (July) and late-season (October) TCs are significantly larger in the WNP, while the mean size is largest in September in the NA. The percentage frequency of TCs having large size or high strength is also found to vary spatially and seasonally. In addition, the interannual variation of TC size and strength in the WNP correlate significantly with the TC lifetimes and the effect of El Niño over the WNP. TC lifetime and seasonal subtropical ridge activities are shown to be potential factors that affect TC size and strength.