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Abstract The sensitivity of tree growth to precipitation regulates their responses to drought, and is a crucial metric for predicting ecosystem dynamics and vulnerability. Sensitivity may be changing with continuing climate change, yet a comprehensive assessment of its change is still lacking. We utilized tree ring measurements from 3,044 sites, climate data and CO2 concentrations obtained from monitoring stations, combined with dynamic global vegetation models to investigate spatiotemporal changes in the sensitivity over the past century. We observed an increasing sensitivity since around 1950. This increased sensitivity was particularly pronounced in arid biomes due to the combined effect of increased precipitation and elevated CO2. While elevated CO2 reduced the sensitivity of the humid regions, the intensified water pressure caused by decreased precipitation still increased the sensitivity. Our findings suggest an escalating vulnerability of tree growth to precipitation change, which may increase the risk of tree mortality under future intensified drought.

Departures from historical wildfire regimes due to climate change have significant implications for the structure and composition of forests, as well as for fire management and operations in the Alberta region of Canada. This study analyzed the relationship between climate and wildfire and used a random forest algorithm to predict future wildfire frequencies in Alberta, Canada. Key factors driving wildfires were identified as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sea surface temperature (SST), maximum temperature (Tmax), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). Projections indicate an increase in wildfire frequencies from 918 per year during 1970–1999 to 1151 per year during 2040–2069 under a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (RCP 4.5) and to 1258 per year under a high GHG emission scenario (RCP 8.5). By 2070–2099, wildfire frequencies are projected to increase to 1199 per year under RCP 4.5 and to 1555 per year under RCP 8.5. The peak number of wildfires is expected to shift from May to July. These findings suggest that projected GHG emissions will substantially increase wildfire danger in Alberta by 2099, posing increasing challenges for fire suppression efforts.

Soil erosion is a challenge worldwide, including in China. The dendrogeomorphic method was applied, for the first time, at Xiaolong Mts in Gansu Province to obtain a quantitative estimate of the soil erosion rate. The dataset built in this pilot study allowed the identification of exhumation texture in exposed roots between 1967 and 2002. The calculated mean erosion rate estimates (Era) ranged from 2.6 to 16.5 mm yr−1 and showed an increase with the slope steepness (s). The best fitting linear model (Era = 0.043(±0.017) × s + 3.09(±1.04); R² = 0.20; R²adj = 0.16; F = 6.18; p = 0.02) could be used in future research to determine and to map soil denudation in this part of the Xiaolong Mts. Notable associations were found between erosive rainfalls and root exhumation events. Daily (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation totals of 56 and 73 mm, respectively, seem to be critical thresholds which if exceeded will always induce root exhumation in the same year or in the consecutive season in the forest of the Xiaolong Mts in the studied period.

Climate change has caused more frequent instances of extreme climatic events around the world, being an influential factor on the occurrence of wildfires in China on large scale. However, the impact of changes in extreme climate on the occurrence of wildfires in different climate zones remains unclear. In the present study, 26 extreme climate indices were selected to analyze the thereof relationship with wildfire occurrences from 2005 to 2018 in different regions of China. Wildfires in China primarily occur in the south, with a measurable presence in the north. On an annual scale, the wildfire occurrences in southwestern China show stronger correlations with mean temperature than extreme temperature indices, but show stronger correlations with extreme precipitation indices than the total precipitation. On the contrary, the wildfire occurrences in southeastern China show stronger correlations with the total precipitation than extreme precipitation indices, but show stronger correlations with extreme temperature indices than the mean temperature. In Northeast China, wildfires show a more significant correlation with mean temperature than with any extreme climate indices, indicating a minimal impact from extreme climatic conditions. The fire-climate relationships in the main fire season (January-April) are similar to those in the annual scale. The wildfire occurrences in the southwestern, south-central, and southeastern China, which are located in the same latitudes, were affected by extreme climate indices of different types and on different time scales. Furthermore, we recommend that consecutive dry days (CDD) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) should be considered first when studying the relationship between wildfire occurrence and extreme climate in southwestern and southeastern China respectively.

Radial growth of trees can result in opposite wood (OW) and compression wood (CW) due to the varying impact of stem mechanical stress, such as that caused by gravity or wind. Previous research has identified higher xylem production in CW compared to OW. Yet, it remains unclear whether the difference in the number of xylem cells between OW and CW results from differences in growth rate or the duration of xylem cells. In this study, we collected wood microcores on a weekly basis from March 2019 to January 2020 in Pinus massoniana Lamb. located on a steep slope. Our objective was to compare the dynamic of cambial activity and resulting cellular anatomical parameters between OW and CW in a humid subtropical environment. Our results showed that the xylem phenology of OW and CW was generally consistent with the xylem cell division process beginning in early March and ceasing in November. The last latewood cell completed its differentiation at the end of December. The response of wood formation dynamics to climate was consistent in both OW and CW. Moreover, both wood types exhibited a limited development of the enlargement phase due to the heat and drought during the summer. The rate of cell division was responsible for 90.7% of the variability in the number of xylem cells. The CW xylem obtained a larger number of cells by increasing the rate of cell division and displayed thinner earlywood cells with larger lumens than OW cells. Our findings showed that the xylem of conifer species responds to mechanical stress by accelerating the cell division rate. As a result, we suggest calculating the ratio between OW and CW widths to reconstruct wind stress changes rather than calculating the residuals used in the current study.

Fire is a principal disturbance agent in Northeastern Asia forests with the highest fire radiative power globally. The limitation of the wide network of sites with long reconstructed fire histories restricts our understanding of factors forcing regional fire dynamics. We aggregated 30 fire scars-based fire chronologies in Northeastern Asia to create a composite region chronology from 1701 to 2010. We assessed the correlation between solar activity, drought (as represented by the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, scPDSI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and forest fire. Large fires were associated with drought, positive AO, and lower sunspot numbers, as revealed by Superposed epoch analysis. The pathways of solar activity force drought and AO, hence, driving fire activity indicated by structural equation modeling. As Solar Cycle 25 (starting in December 2019 and lasting until about 2030) is projected to be as weak as the Dalton minimum (1795–1820 AD), we expect fire activity to remain high over this period. Our findings provide insights into the extraterrestrial forcing of forest fire activity and its prediction in Northeastern Asia.

Growing evidence shows that global warming has greatly changed the forest disturbance mechanism. The interactions of disturbance factors are also an indispensable part of forest disturbance mechanism. However, the interactions of disturbance factors and their sensitivity to climate change remain largely unknown. In this study, we not only analyzed the sensitivity of forest insect and fire disturbances to climate, but also analyzed the relationship between forest insect and fire disturbances, and the sensitivity of interaction between forest insect and fire disturbances to climate change. In addition, we explored the relationship between forest insect-fire disturbance interactions and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results suggested that the temperature-related variables (eg. temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR)) were the most prominent climate driving factors of forest insect and fire disturbances, and both forest insect and fire disturbances have significant relationship with ENSO in spring. The interaction between forest insects and fires is strongly tied to insect history, fire history, plant responses, and climate change. The damage after the fires affects the physiology of trees, reduces the resistance of trees, and makes trees vulnerable to insect invasion. At least 7 years after the fires, vegetation restoration increased the landscape heterogeneity and diversity, thus avoiding the occurrence of forest insects. After the outbreak of insects, the forest fine fuel load decreased and even led to forest death and gap expansion, reducing the occurrence of forest fires. Moreover, the interaction between forest insect-fire disturbances and ENSO in spring was significantly related. Therefore, it is beneficial to prevent forest insect outbreaks and fire by means of fuel removal and planned fire, and the prediction of ENSO events can prevent forest insect and fire disturbances and promote the sustainable development of forest ecosystem.

Tree radial growth is characterized by not only the annual ring-width increment but also shifts in the tree-ring geometric center (TRGC) if subjected to asymmetric external forcing, such as gravity downslope or prevailing winds. Previous dendrochronological studies have used the asymmetric growth derived from tree-ring widths to reconstruct wind speed changes. Here we propose a novel method that uses quantitative TRGC measurements to estimate wind speed. We investigated TRGC shifts in northeast China, where the prevailing westerly winds are strong and persistent. We found that the TRGC showed significant correlations (r ​= ​0.64, p ​

Spring precipitation in southeastern China and Bengal, occurring during the transitional phase from winter to summer monsoons, serves as a critical window into the dynamics of large-scale circulations and the subsequent summer monsoon. While many studies have analyzed spring precipitation in southeastern China and Bengal, their interconnections and implications for the summer monsoon have remained relatively under explored. We utilized the Empirical Orthogonal Function of spring precipitation to reveal Synchronous Spring Precipitation (SSP) in southeastern China and Bengal. This synchronicity is bridged by the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) that extends from Bengal to southeastern China. The EASJ was predominantly correlated with precipitation in southeastern China prior to the 1990s, while it developed a more profound connection with precipitation in Bengal after the 1990s. Notably, SSP anomalies occurred during the developing phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The predictive capacity of SSP for the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) amplifies during periods of the intensified SSP-ENSO correlations and positive phase of the North Pacific Meridional Mode. Tree-ring based reconstructions spanning the past two centuries further corroborate the persistent linkages among the SSP, ISM, and ENSO. Our research sheds light on the intricate interplay of these factors and their significance in understanding and predicting the monsoon dynamics in the region.

Abstract Laboratory experiments have revealed the meteorological sensitivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) virus. However, no consensus has been reached about how outdoor meteorological conditions modulate the virus transmission as it is also constrained by non‐meteorological conditions. Here, we identify the outbreak's evolution stage, constrained least by non‐meteorological conditions, by searching the maximum correlation coefficient between the ultraviolet flux and the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases at the country level. At this least‐constrained stage, the cumulative cases count around 1300–3200, and the count's daily growth rate correlates with the ultraviolet flux and temperature significantly (correlation coefficients r = −0.54 ± 0.09 and −0.39 ± 0.10 at p

The snow cover extent (SCE) on the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) has an important impact on the dynamics of the East Asian winter monsoon and the runoff changes of the first and third largest rivers in Asia, namely, the Yangtze River and the Yarlung Zangbo River. Unfortunately, the shortness of instrumental SCE data of a few decades limits our ability to understand its long-term variability before the industrial era. Here, we developed Abies faxoniana tree-ring total ring width (TRW), early-wood width (EWW), and late-wood width (LWW) chronologies for the past four centuries at Little Qamdo Village (XQDV), Markam County, on the SETP. The most significant positive correlation (r = 0.62, p < 0.01) was found between the EWW chronology and SCE from March to May (SCE3–5). The SCE would affect the onset of the growing season through soil moisture, restricting the early-wood growth of trees. Thus, we presented a reconstruction of SCE3–5via EWW chronology since AD 1660 for SETP. We observed two abrupt changes from low to high around the years 1685 and 1998 for our reconstructed SCE3–5. In addition, we found that the positive anomalies of the reconstructed SCE3–5 after 1988 cohered with the distinct increase of the East Asian winter monsoon.

Fire activity in China and its associations with climate are not well quantified at a local scale. Here, the authors present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China and find a dipole fire pattern between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas in the troposphere, while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the most important tropical climate variability. ENSO is known to influence interannual variation in meteorological variables on the global scale but its influence on atmospheric CO over large areas in a long term is uncertain. Here we report a strong positive teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter (November to February) to tropospheric CO over the North Atlantic European region (NAE) in the following spring (March to May). This ENSO teleconnection is evident in trajectory-mapped airborne CO data (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System, IAGOS) over 2002–2019. CO concentrations in El Niño years are 5–20 ppbv higher than those in La Niña years over the NAE troposphere. The regional mean difference from the surface to 300 hPa is 9.4 ppbv (7.6% of the mean). The correlation coefficient (r) between the ENSO index and detrended CO concentrations in the NAE is 0.67 at 400 hPa and 0.63 near the surface, both statistically significant at the 95% level. Such a teleconnection is also observed in independent surface observations, with r ranging from 0.57 to 0.74, all at 95% significance level. From analysis of fire emissions and atmospheric conditions, combined with tagged CO simulations using a chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, we conclude that this teleconnection results from the combined effects of ENSO on both biomass burning and atmospheric transport. We find that in El Niño years, CO emissions from biomass burning are significantly enhanced in Northern Hemispheric South America, Southeast Asia, and North America due to warmer air temperatures and lowered precipitation. In addition, ENSO enhances CO transport from these regions to the NAE by enhancing upward and northeastward motions in the fire regions, accelerating westerlies over 20°N–40°N, and prompting ascents over the Atlantic and descents over Europe, while reducing CO outflow at the eastern boundary of Europe. The combined effect of ENSO on both CO emissions and CO transport leads to interannual variability in tropospheric CO over the NAE.

Monitoring cambial activity is important for a better understanding of the mechanisms governing xylem growth responses to climate change, providing a scientific basis for tree-ring-based climate reconstructions and projections about tree growth under future climate scenarios. It plays an even more important role in investigating evergreen tree growth in regions with less distinct seasonal cycles. Subtropical evergreen forests have been studied in recent years for their sensitivity to climate change, but it remains unclear how xylem growth is driven by subtropical climates. To further understand the climate-growth response strategies of subtropical conifers, we micro-cored Cryptomeria fortunei and Cunninghamia lanceolata weekly in 2016 and 2017 at the humid subtropical Gushan Mountain in southeastern China. Our weekly growth monitoring showed that the vegetation periods of these two species were both approximately 2–3 months longer than trees in temperate and boreal forests. The growth of C. fortunei in 2016 and 2017 and C. lanceolata in 2017 showed a bimodal pattern of xylogenesis, which was induced by summer drought. The results also indicated that the earlier end of the xylem formation was related to the yearly drought stress. These findings provide more specific information about tree growth and evidence of how climate influences wood production at the cellular level in subtropical regions.

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable decadal variations since the late 20th century. Efforts to examine long-term behaviors and dynamics of the EASM are impeded largely due to the shortness of instrumental meteorological records. So far, reconstructions of the EASM with annual resolution from its core regions remain limited. We conduct the first 200-year robust EASM reconstruction based on tree-ring cellulose δ18O records derived from Pinus massoniana trees growing in the middle Yangtze River basin, one of the core EASM areas. The δ18O chronology accounts for 46.2% of the actual variation in an index of the EASM from 1948 to 2014. The reconstructed EASM indicates that the monsoon intensity was below average before the 1950s, peaked in the 1950s-1970s, and then began to decline. The reconstructed EASM is negatively correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this teleconnection is dynamic through time, i.e. enhanced (reduced) ENSO variability coheres with strong (weak) EASM-ENSO connections. In addition, despite high ENSO variability since the 1980s, the EASM-ENSO relationship weakened possibly due to anthropogenic impact, particularly aerosol emissions.

The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WP), with the highest sea surface temperature (SST) in the world, has strong impacts on the drought variations in Eurasia. However, since the little ice age (1250–1850, LIA), the co-climatic drought pattern due to WP warming in Eurasia remains unclear. This is a long-term warming background for the current warming period (CWP). In this paper, we use both instrumental data and 1625 tree-ring width records from Eurasia to investigate the drought patterns in both modern and historical periods. This study revealed two seesaw precipitation patterns, namely the Central Asia–Mongolia (CAMO) and Northern Europe–Southern Europe (NESE) patterns. When the Western Pacific Warm Pool sea surface temperature (WPSST) is high, precipitation increases in Central Asia and Northern Europe, and decreases in Mongolia and southern Europe. When the positive (negative) phase event of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs, the WPSST is reduced (increased), and the decreases (increases) of precipitation in Central Asia and Northern Europe and the increases (decreases) in precipitation in Mongolia and southern Europe are more obvious. The CAMO dipole has been strengthened since the LIA. The CAMO dipole is positively correlated with solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature, and negatively correlated with Pacific decadal oscillations (PDO).

Humid subtropical China is an “oasis” relative to other dry subtropics of the world due to the prevailing of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Although many long climate sensitive tree-rings have been published to understand the historical climate change over various regions in China, long tree-ring chronologies in humid subtropical China are rare due to the difficulty to find old growth trees. This study established a tree-ring chronology spanning from 1776 to 2016 from Cryptomeria fortunei Hooibrenk ex Otto et Dietr in Liancheng area of humid subtropical China, which is also currently the longest chronology in Fujian province. Similar to the climate-growth relationships in neighboring regions, our tree-ring chronology is limited by cold temperature in winter and spring and drought in summer. In addition, a drought stress before the growing season also played a role in limiting the growth of our tree rings. Our climate sensitive tree rings showed different correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in different periods, possibly via modulation of the EASM.

Influence of long-term changes in climate and CO2 concentration on intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), defined as the ratio between net photosynthesis (A) and leaf conductance (g), and tree growth remain not fully revealed in humid subtropical China, which is distinct from other arid subtropical areas with dense coverage of broadleaf forests. This study presented the first tree-ring stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and iWUE series of Pinus massoniana from 1865 to 2013 in Fujian province, humid subtropical China, and the first tree-ring width standard chronology during the period of 1836-2013 for the Niumulin Nature Reserve (NML). Tree-ring width growth was limited by precipitation in July-August (r = 0.40, p < 0.01). The tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) was mainly controlled by the sunshine hours (r = -0.66, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = 0.58, p < 0.001) in September-October, a season with rapid latewood formation in this area. The iWUE increased by 42.6% and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) explained 92.6% of the iWUE variance over the last 150 years. The steady increase in iWUE suggests an active response with a proportional increase in intercellular CO2 concentration (ci) in response to increase in ca. The contribution of iWUE to tree growth in the study region is not conspicuous, which points to influences of other factors such as climate.

Knowledge about the spatiotemporal tree growth variability and its associations with climate provides key insights into forest dynamics under future scenarios of climate change. We synthesized 17 tree-ring width chronologies from four tree species at the high-elevation sites in the southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) to study the regional tree growth variability and climate-growth relationships. Despite of diverse habitats and different physiological characteristics of these species, these tree-ring chronologies shared a significant common variance in SETP. An unprecedented increase in the shared variance is found along the latter half of the 20th century, coinciding with the enhancement of the frequency of extreme rings among chronologies. It is found that minimum winter temperature tends to be the dominant climate for trees in this region. The site-specific responses in cold (1965-1980) and warm (1990-2005) intervals by means of Fuzzy Cmeans (FCM) clustering reveal that the remarkable enhancement of growth synchrony among trees mainly occur in warm conditions. This is different from previous findings indicating that increased consistence among temperature sensitive tree rings in cold periods. This may be related to the reduced temperature sensitivity of regional tree growth as winter minimum temperature is lower than a certain threshold, which is in agreement with the "principle of ecological amplitude". In addition, it is worth noting that precipitation in June have started to restrain the tree growth since the beginning of the 1980s, which is possibly an important contributor for synchronized growth among trees in SETP.

Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

Traditional detrending methods assign equal mean value to all tree-ring series for chronology developments, despite that the mean annual growth changes in different time periods. We find that the strength of a tree-ring model can be improved by giving more weights to tree-ring series that have a stronger climate signal and less weight to series that have a weaker signal. We thus present an ensemble weighting method to mitigate these potential biases and to more accurately extract the climate signals in dendroclimatology studies. This new method has been used to develop the first annual precipitation reconstruction (previous August to current July) at the Songmingyan Mountain and to recalculate the tree-ring chronology from Shenge site in Dulan area in northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), a marginal area of Asian summer monsoon. The ensemble weighting method explains 31.7% of instrumental variance for the reconstructions at Songmingyan Mountain and 57.3% of the instrumental variance in the Dulan area, which are higher than those developed using traditional methods. We focus on the newly introduced reconstruction at Songmingyan Mountain, which showsextremely dry (wet) epochs from 1862-1874, 1914-1933 and 1991-1999 (1882-1905). These dry/wet epochs were also found in the marginal areas of summer monsoon and the Indian subcontinent, indicating the linkages between regional hydroclimate changes and the Indian summer monsoon.

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia.

Investigations of climate–growth interactions can shed light on the response of forest growth to climate change and the dendroclimatic reconstructions. However, most existing studies in the climatically important Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrouding regions focus on linear growth responses to environmental variation. Herein we investigated both the linear and the nonlinear climate–growth interactions for 152 tree-ring chronologies in the TP and vicinity. We introduced the boosted regression tree (BRT) technique to study the nonlinear climate–growth relationships by pooling several sites with similar climate–growth relationships to mitigate potential biases due to the shortness of the instrumental records. Across most of the TP and surroundings, tree growth is stressed by drought. The warming induced drought has been evidenced by the strong interactions between temperature and precipitation in the BRT analyses. The drought stress on forest growth is particularly conspicuous for a hydrological year over much of the Northern TP and surroundings. The BRT analyses indicate the compensation effect of moisture prior to the growing season for the moisture deficit in the early growing season in May to July, when most of the ring-width formation occurs.