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Background: Alcohol use is declining among US adolescents/early young adults and increasing among other adults, with increases in adult binge drinking more concentrated in females than males. Reasons for drinking are historically patterned by age and sex, and if historically variant, could suggest that changes over time could in part explain age‐ and sex‐differential cohort effects. Methods: We analyzed longitudinal Monitoring the Future data for individuals born from 1958 to 1990. These individuals were aged 29/30 from 1987 to 2020, and first surveyed at age 18 from 1976 to 2008 (N = 14,190). Five reasons for drinking were analyzed (social, enhancement, avoid problems, relax, boredom). Drinking for social reasons and to relax were most prevalent. Total effects of birth cohort predicting past‐2‐week binge drinking were estimated with polynomial regression models by age; indirect effects through mediators were estimated. Results: Drinking reasons exhibited dynamic time trends across birth cohort and sex. Notable increases were observed in social reasons: among women aged 29/30, social reasons increased from 53% to 87% from 1987 to 2020. Social reasons to drink had prominent positive indirect effects at adult ages (age 23/24 and above among men; age 19 and above among women), indicating that binge drinking would have increased less were it not for the increase in social reasons for drinking. Social reasons also mediated adult male/female differences, indicating that part of the reason sex differences are diminishing is the more rapid increases in social reasons for drinking among women. Indirect effects were also observed for drinking to relax and for boredom, and limited indirect effects were observed for enhancement and to avoid problems. Conclusion: Changing endorsement of drinking reasons, especially social reasons, among US adult drinkers mediate cohort effects in binge drinking in the US adult population and explain in part why binge drinking is converging by sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are important predictors of mental health outcomes in adulthood. However, commonly used ACE measures such as the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) have not been validated among Black sexually minoritized men (SMM) nor transgender women (TW), whom are known to have higher rates of ACE and poorer mental health outcomes. Assessing the psychometric properties of the measure is important for health equity research, as measurements that are not valid for some populations will render uninterpretable results. Methods: Data are drawn from the Neighborhoods and Networks (N2) study, a longitudinal cohort of Black SMM and TW living in Southern Chicago. We conducted confirmatory factor analysis, correlation analysis and a two-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) on the BRFSS ACE measure, an 11-item measure with 8 domains of ACE. Results: One hundred forty seven participants (85% cisgender male) completed the BRFSS ACE measurement in the N2 study with age ranges from 16–34. The cohort were from a low socioeconomic background: about 40% of the cohort were housing insecure and made than $10,000 or less annually. They also have a high number of ACEs; 34% had endorsed 4 or more ACE domains. The three-factor structure fit the BRFSS ACE measure best; the measurement consisted of three subscales: of "Household Dysfunction", "Emotional / Physical", and "Sexual Abuse" (CFI = 0.975, TLI = 0.967, and RMSEA = 0.051). When the 8 domains of ACE were summed to one score, the total score was is correlated with depressive symptoms and anxiety scores, establishing concurrent validity. Item Response Theory model indicated that the "parental separation" domain had a low discrimination (slope) parameter, suggesting that this domain does not distinguish well between those with and without high ACE. Conclusions: The BRFFS ACE measure had adequate reliability, a well-replicated structure and some moderate evidence of concurrent validity among Black SMM and TW. The parental separation domain does not discriminate between those with high and low ACE experiences in this population. With changing population demographics and trends in marriage, further examination of this item beyond the current study is warranted to improve health equity research for all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internalizing conditions of psychopathology include depressive and anxiety disorders; they most often onset in adolescence, are relatively common, and contribute to significant population morbidity and mortality. In this research review, we present the evidence that internalizing conditions, including depression and anxiety, as well as psychological distress, suicidal thoughts and self‐harm, and fatal suicide, are considerably increasing in adolescent populations across many countries. Evidence indicates that increases are currently greatest in female adolescents. We present an epidemiological framework for evaluating the causes of these increases, and synthesize research on whether several established risk factors (e.g., age of pubertal transition and stressful life events) and novel risk factors (e.g., digital technology and social media) meet conditions necessary to be plausible causes of increases in adolescent internalizing conditions. We conclude that there are a multitude of potential causes of increases in adolescent internalizing conditions, outline evidence gaps including the lack of research on nonbinary and gender nonconforming populations, and recommend necessary prevention and intervention foci from a clinical and public health perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide rates in the United States have increased over the past 15 years, with substantial geographic variation in these increases; yet there have been few attempts to cluster counties by the magnitude of suicide rate changes according to intercept and slope or to identify the economic precursors of increases. We used vital statistics data and growth mixture models to identify clusters of counties by their magnitude of suicide growth from 2008 to 2020 and examined associations with county economic and labor indices. Our models identified 5 clusters, each differentiated by intercept and slope magnitude, with the highest-rate cluster (4% of counties) being observed mainly in sparsely populated areas in the West and Alaska, starting the time series at 25.4 suicides per 100,000 population, and exhibiting the steepest increase in slope (0.69/100,000/year). There was no cluster for which the suicide rate was stable or declining. Counties in the highest-rate cluster were more likely to have agricultural and service economies and less likely to have urban professional economies. Given the increased burden of suicide, with no clusters of counties improving over time, additional policy and prevention efforts are needed, particularly targeted at rural areas in the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Given the shifting landscape of hallucinogen use, particularly with increased therapeutic use, understanding current changes in use is a necessary part of examining the potential risk hallucinogens pose to vulnerable populations, such as young adults. This study aimed to measure hallucinogen use among young adults aged 19–30 years from 2018 to 2021. Design, setting and participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study among young adults aged 19–30 years from the US general population, interviewed between 2018 and 2021. Participants comprised 11 304 unique respondents, with an average number of follow‐ups of 1.46 (standard deviation = 0.50). Of the observed data points, 51.9% were among females. Measurements: We examined past 12‐month self‐reported use of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), as well as hallucinogens besides LSD (e.g. psilocybin), monitoring any use as well as frequency, overall and by sex. Findings From 2018 to 2021, past 12‐month use of LSD among young adults in the US remained relatively unchanged, from 3.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.1–4.3] in 2018 to 4.2% in 2021 (95% CI = 3.4–5.0). Non‐LSD hallucinogen [e.g. 'shrooms', psilocybin or PCP (phenylcyclohexyl piperidine)] use, however, increased in prevalence from 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8–4.1) to 6.6% from 2018 to 2021 (95% CI = 5.5–7.6). Across years, the odds of non‐LSD use were higher for males [odds ratio (OR) = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.52–2.26] and lower for black than white participants (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.19–0.47) and those without a college‐educated parent (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.64–0.99). Demographic disparities were similar for LSD use. Conclusion: Prevalence of past‐year use non‐lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) hallucinogen was twice as high in 2021 as in 2018 among US young adults. Correlates of non‐LSD hallucinogen use included being male, white and from higher socio‐economic status backgrounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their seminal 2002 paper, "Causal Knowledge as a Prerequisite for Confounding Evaluation: An Application to Birth Defects Epidemiology," Hernán et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2002;155(2):176–184) emphasized the importance of using theory rather than data to guide confounding control, focusing on colliders as variables that share characteristics with confounders but whose control may actually introduce bias into analyses. In this commentary, we propose that the importance of this paper stems from the connection the authors made between nonexchangeability as the ultimate source of bias and structural representations of bias using directed acyclic graphs. This provided both a unified approach to conceptualizing bias and a means of distinguishing between different sources of bias, particularly confounding and selection bias. Drawing on examples from the paper, we also highlight unresolved questions about the relationship between collider bias, selection bias, and generalizability and argue that causal knowledge is a prerequisite not only for identifying confounders but also for developing any hypothesis about potential sources of bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within a school grade, children who are young for grade are at increased risk of psychiatric diagnoses, but the long-term implications remain understudied, and associations with students who delay or accelerate entry underexplored. We used Norwegian birth cohort records (birth years: 1967–1976, n  = 626,928) linked to records in midlife. On-time school entry was socially patterned; among those born in December, 23.0% of children in the lowest socioeconomic position (SEP) delayed school entry, compared with 12.2% among the highest SEP. Among those who started school on time, there was no evidence for long-term associations between birth month and psychiatric/behavioral disorders or mortality. Controlling for SEP and other confounders, delayed school entry was associated with increased risk of psychiatric disorders and mortality. Children with delayed school entry were 1.31 times more likely to die by suicide (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.61) by midlife, and 1.96 times more likely to die from drug-related death (95% confidence interval: 1.59, 2.40) by midlife than those born late in the year who started school on time. Associations with delayed school entry are likely due to selection, and results thus underscore that long-term health risks can be tracked early in life, including through school entry timing, and are highly socially patterned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical analyses based on US data indicate that recent cohorts engage in lower binge drinking at age 18 relative to past cohorts, but by the mid- to late-20s the reverse is true: recent cohorts engage in higher binge drinking relative to past cohorts. We pinpoint when – both developmentally and historically – this reversal manifested, examine possible reasons for this reversal, and examine sex convergence in these developmental and historical patterns. As part of the US national Monitoring the Future Study, over 75,000 youths from the high school classes of 1976–2006 were surveyed biennially between ages 18 and 30. We found that the reversal primarily manifested between ages 18 and 24 for men and 18 and 22 for women. We also found that the reversal emerged gradually across the last three decades, suggesting it is the result of a broad and durable historical shift. Our findings indicated that historical variation in social roles and minimum legal drinking age collectively accounted for only a modest amount of the reversal, although marriage was the most influential among the factors examined here. Finally, we found evidence that sex convergence in binge drinking was developmentally limited and far more pronounced at the beginning of the transition to adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Both local socio‐economic conditions and prescription opioid supply are associated with drug overdose deaths, which exhibit substantial geographical heterogeneity across the United States. We measured whether the associations of prescription opioid supply with drug overdose deaths vary by local socio‐economic conditions. Design: Ecological county‐level study, including 3109 US counties between 2006 and 2019 (n = 43 526 county‐years) using annual mortality data. Setting: United States. Cases A total of 711 447 drug overdose deaths. Measurements We modeled overdose counts using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models, estimating associations between four types of drug overdose deaths (deaths involving any drugs, any opioid, prescription opioids only and heroin), prescription opioid supply and five socio‐economic indicators: unemployment, poverty rate, income inequality, Rey index (components include mean household income, % high school graduates, % blue‐collar workers and unemployment rate), and American human development index (HDI; an indicator of community wellbeing). Findings Drug overdose deaths and all substance‐specific overdose deaths were higher in counties with higher income inequality [adjusted odds ratios (aORs) = 1.09–1.13], Rey index (aORs = 1.15–1.21) and prescription opioid supply (aORs = 1.14–1.21), and lower in counties with higher HDI scores (aORs = 0.75–0.92). Poverty rate, income inequality and HDI scores were found to modify the effect of prescription opioid supply on heroin overdose deaths. The plot of the interactions showed that when disadvantage is high, increasing prescription opioid supply does not increase heroin overdose deaths. The less disadvantage there is, indicated by lower poverty rates, higher HDI scores and lower income inequality, the greater the effect of increasing prescription opioid supply relative to population size on heroin overdose deaths in US counties. Conclusions: In the United States, prescription opioid supply is associated with higher drug overdose deaths; associations are stronger in counties with less disadvantage and less income inequality, but only for heroin overdose deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy PointsCountries have adopted different strategies to support aging populations, which are broadly reflected in social, economic, and contextual environments. Referred to as "societal adaptation to aging," these factors affect countries' capacity to support older adults.Results from our study show that countries with more robust societal adaptation to aging had lower depression prevalence. Reductions in depression prevalence occurred among every investigated sociodemographic group and were most pronounced among the old‐old.Findings suggest that societal factors have an underacknowledged role in shaping depression risk. Policies that improve societal approaches to aging may reduce depression prevalence among older adults. Context: Countries have adopted various formal and informal approaches to support older adults, which are broadly reflected in different policies, programs, and social environments. These contextual environments, broadly referred to as "societal adaptation to aging," may affect population health. Methods: We used a new theory‐based measure that captured societal adaptation to aging, the Aging Society Index (ASI), which we linked with harmonized individual‐level data from 89,111 older adults from 20 countries. Using multi‐levels models that accounted for differences in the population composition across countries, we estimated the association between country‐level ASI scores and depression prevalence. We also tested if associations were stronger among the old‐old and among sociodemographic groups that experience more disadvantage (i.e., women, those with lower educational attainment, unmarried adults). Findings: We found that countries with higher ASI scores, indicating more comprehensive approaches to supporting older adults, had lower depression prevalence. We found especially strong reductions in depression prevalence among the oldest adults in our sample. However, we did not find stronger reductions among sociodemographic groups who may experience more disadvantage. Conclusions: Country‐level strategies to support older adults may affect depression prevalence. Such strategies may become increasingly important as adults grow older. These results offer promising evidence that improvements in societal adaptation to aging—such as through adoption of more comprehensive policies and programs targeting older adults—may be one avenue to improve population mental health. Future research could investigate observed associations using longitudinal and quasi‐experimental study designs, offering additional information regarding a potential causal relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Other forms of selection bias will also be over-represented in the siblings discordant for income, depending on the reason for income discordance (i.e. depending on how much non-random experiences contribute to the income difference between siblings). Evaluating the causal impact of income and socioeconomic status on mental health and wellbeing has been critically important yet methodologically challenging in psychiatric epidemiology since the very origins of the field. In fact, most family income in Sariaslan I et al i .[1] was stable and shared within families, and those families (and therefore effects of their income on study outcomes) were not included in the analysis. Yet the authors interpret the change in income of $15 000 per year as the total effect of all family income on psychiatric disorders and violent crime arrests. [Extracted from the article]

Alcohol use, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorders have been increasing among older adults in the US population, including adults over 50 as well as adults over 65. Increases in consumption are sharper among women, and among those who use additional substances such as cannabis, and those who are relatively healthy in older adulthood (i.e. those without multimorbidites). This commentary describes these trends as well as provides hypotheses, and the data underlying them, for both supply-side (alcohol marketing and messaging) and demand-side (healthier aging, increased financial stress) potential drivers of these increases. The need for additional resources and focus on older adult drinking is increasingly urgent, as alcohol-attributable deaths escalate among older adults in the United States. • Older adults over the last 20 years are increasingly consuming alcohol, binge drinking, and reporting alcohol use disorders. • The magnitude of the increase is concentrated among women, and those with co-occurring other substance use such as cannabis. • Reasons for the increases are multifactorial and involve supply- and demand-side. • Since 1999, deaths fully attributable to alcohol in the United States have increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sexual minority adolescents have worse sleep health than their peers. Adolescents who identify as heterosexual and report prior same-sex sexual contact (termed 'discordant heterosexuals') have elevated health risks, but little is known about this group's sleep health. This study examined 2015–2017 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data (n = 12,773 high school students) comparing discordant heterosexuals to their concordant (i.e. sexual identity is concordant with reported sex of sexual contact) heterosexual, bisexual, gay and lesbian peers on three sleep outcomes: sufficient (≥8 hours), short (≤6 hours) and extremely limited sleep (≤4 hours). Both discordant heterosexual (aOR:0.64, 95% CI:0.47, 0.86) and bisexual students (aOR:0.69, CI:0.56, 0.85) had lower odds of sufficient sleep compared to concordant heterosexuals, even after adjustment for demographic factors and substance use. Discordant heterosexual (aOR:1.29, CI:1.01, 1.66) and bisexual (aOR:1.74, CI:1.54, 1.98) students have higher odds of short sleep. Discordant heterosexual (aOR:1.94, CI:1.36, 2.77) and bisexual students (aOR:2.72, CI:2.23, 3.31) also had higher odds of extremely limited sleep. Victimization may partially explain some of these associations. Sleep health is one factor that may drive health disparities, and efforts to ensure that adolescents are safe and secure in sexual behavior and identity is important to reducing these disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Childhood adversities are risk factors for subsequent mental health problems. Research commonly focuses on adverse childhood experiences, despite evidence that other exposures, such as neighborhood violence or peer victimization, co-occur with adverse childhood experiences and are associated with similar mental health outcomes. This study explored the clustering of these exposures and examined the associations with mental health.Methods: Data were a nationally representative sample of U.S. children aged 10-17 years (N=1,959), collected in 2013-2014. Latent class analysis was conducted on 22 types of childhood adversity. Regression models examined associations with mental health and substance use. These secondary analyses were conducted in 2021.Results: A total of 5 classes were identified: Low all (59% of the sample), Abuse (29%), High multiple adversities (5%), Peer adversity (4%), and Neighborhood violence (4%). All classes had poorer mental health and a higher prevalence of substance use than Low all, with particularly harmful levels in High multiple adversities. Neighborhood violence was not significantly different from High multiple adversities on mental health symptoms and showed a greater proportion of past-year substance use than all other classes except High multiple adversities. Peer adversity and Abuse classes did not differ significantly in any outcomes.Conclusions: Findings highlight the particularly deleterious impact of neighborhood violence and highly co-occurring adversity types on mental health and substance use. It is important to extend our conceptualization of adverse childhood experiences to include peer adversity and neighborhood violence and shift from a siloed approach to examining all these exposures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis to enhance each other's effect can cause potential harm. Time trends are diverging in adolescent use of alcohol, which is declining, and cannabis, which is increasing among certain subgroups. However, little is known about trends in their simultaneous and non‐simultaneous use. Racial and socioeconomic disparities are emerging in cannabis use, which may portend consequences to public health. Methods: The 2000 to 2020 Monitoring the Future surveys included approximately 38,000 U.S. 12th‐grade students with information on simultaneous use and pertinent demographic factors. A 5‐level alcohol/cannabis measure included past‐year simultaneous use (i.e., alcohol and cannabis use at the same time), non‐simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use, alcohol‐use‐only, cannabis‐use‐only, and no use. Multinomial logistic regressions estimated associations (adjusted relative risk ratios; aRRR) with time period (2000 to 2004, 2005 to 2009, 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2020). Models were adjusted and included interactions with sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education. Results: Between 2000 and 2020, simultaneous alcohol/cannabis use among 12th graders decreased from 24.4% to 18.7%. From 2015 to 2020 compared to 2000 to 2004, the odds of simultaneous use (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) vs. no use = 0.57, 95% CI [0.50, 0.66]) and alcohol‐use‐only (aRRR = 0.55, 95% CI [0.49, 0.61]) decreased, while cannabis‐use‐only odds increased (aRRR = 2.59, 95% CI [1.87, 3.59]). Notably, the prevalence of cannabis‐use‐only more than doubled from 2011 to 2019. The odds of simultaneous use, alcohol‐use‐only, and non‐simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis declined more rapidly among males than females, whereas the odds for cannabis‐use‐only increased faster for females than males. Increases in cannabis‐use‐only were faster for non‐white adolescents. Conclusion: Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis is declining among U.S. adolescents, but the decline is slower among females than males. Declines in simultaneous use are largely concomitant with historical declines in alcohol use, indicating that a continued focus on reducing alcohol use among adolescents and young adults has extended benefits to other adolescent substance use. However, cannabis use without any reported past‐year alcohol use more than doubled in the last decade, a concerning trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To quantify the trends in frequent and occasional cannabis vaping, demographic differences and concurrent nicotine and alcohol use. Design: Observational study. Survey‐weighted multinomial logistic regression models assessed trends and disparities in past 30‐day cannabis use. Trends were assessed overall and by sex, race/ethnicity, parental education and urbanicity. Multinomial logistic regression models also estimated associations of cannabis use (none, use without vaping, use with vaping) with past 2‐week binge drinking and past 30‐day nicotine/tobacco use. Setting: United States, 2017–19. Participants: Participants in the national Monitoring the Future (n = 51 052) survey. Measurements Past 30‐day frequent cannabis use (six or more times/30 days) and past 30‐day occasional use (one to five times/30 days), with and without vaping. Findings Past 30‐day frequent cannabis use with vaping and occasional use with vaping rose from 2017 to 2019. Past 30‐day frequent and occasional cannabis use without vaping declined. Certain groups, such as Hispanic/Latino or lower socio‐economic status adolescents, experienced particularly notable increases in frequent cannabis use with vaping (e.g. prevalence among Hispanic/Latino adolescents). Adolescents who reported smoking and vaping nicotine, and 10+ occasions of binge drinking, were 42.28 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 33.14–53.93] and 10.09 (95% CI = 4.51–22.53) times more likely to report past 30‐day cannabis use with vaping, respectively, compared with no use. Discussion Cannabis use without vaping appears to be declining among adolescents in the United States, while cannabis use with vaping is accelerating; frequent cannabis vaping is especially increasing, with consistent increases across almost all adolescent demographic groups. Cannabis use among US adolescents remains highly associated with other substance use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Firearm violence remains a persistent public health threat. Comparing the impact of targeted high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevention may point to efficient and efficacious interventions. We used agent-based modeling to conduct a hypothetical experiment contrasting the impact of high-risk (disqualification) and population-based (price increase) approaches on firearm homicide in New York City (NYC). Methods: We simulated 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult population of NYC. Three groups were considered and disqualified from all firearm ownership for five years, grouped based on prevalence: low prevalence (psychiatric hospitalization, alcohol-related misdemeanor and felony convictions, 0.23%); moderate prevalence (drug misdemeanor convictions, domestic violence restraining orders, 1.03%); and high prevalence (all other felony/misdemeanor convictions, 2.30%). Population-level firearm ownership was impacted by increasing the price of firearms, assuming 1% price elasticity. Results: In this hypothetical scenario, to reduce firearm homicide by 5% in NYC, 25% of the moderate prevalence group, or 12% of the high prevalence group needed to be effectively disqualified; even when all of the low prevalence group was disqualified, homicide did not decrease by 5%. An 18% increase in price similarly reduced firearm homicide by 5.37% (95% CI 4.43–6.31%). Firearm homicide declined monotonically as the proportion of disqualified individuals increased and/or price increased. A combined intervention that both increased price and effectively disqualified "high-risk" groups achieved approximately double the reduction in homicide as any one intervention alone. Increasing illegal firearm ownership by 20%, a hypothetical response to price increases, did not meaningfully change results. Conclusion: A key takeaway of our study is that adopting high-risk versus population-based approaches should not be an "either-or" question. When individual risk is variable and diffuse in the population, "high-risk approaches" to firearm violence need to focus on relatively prevalent groups and be highly efficacious in disarming people at elevated risk to achieve meaningful reductions in firearm homicide, though countering issues of social justice and stigma should be carefully considered. Similar reductions can be achieved with population-based approaches, such as price increases, albeit with fewer such countering issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) pandemic is associated with worsening mental health among young adults, but further research is necessary to quantify the associations with depression and anxiety. Methods: Using Monitoring the Future data (N = 1244 young adults, modal age: 19, Fall 2020 supplement), we examined internalizing symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire‐8 and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale‐7 separately), dividing the sample into those without clinically significant scores, significant scores but minimal pandemic‐attributed symptoms, and significant scores with substantial pandemic‐attributed symptoms. Logistic regression analyses linked demographic factors, pandemic‐related experiences, and coping methods to symptom groups. Results: Internalizing symptoms were highly prevalent, with many occurring among a majority at least several days over the past 2 weeks. Major changes in education, employment, and resource availability predicted elevated symptom risk (e.g., lacking a place to sleep or money for rent, gas, or food led to 4.43 [95% confidence interval: 2.59–7.55] times the risk of high depressive symptoms significantly attributed to the pandemic). High internalizing symptoms were linked to underutilization of healthy coping behaviors, substance use overutilization, and dietary changes. High depressive and anxious symptoms attributed to the pandemic were marked by high levels of taking breaks from the news/social media and contacting healthcare providers. Conclusions: The pandemic's associations with young adults' depressive and anxious symptoms warrants urgent attention through improved mental health treatment infrastructure and stronger structural support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of a Festschrift commemorating the 50th anniversary of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). Established in 1970, first as part of the National Institute of Mental Health and later as an independent institute of the National Institutes of Health, NIAAA today is the world's largest funding agency for alcohol research. In addition to its own intramural research program, NIAAA supports the entire spectrum of innovative basic, translational, and clinical research to advance the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-related problems. To celebrate the anniversary, NIAAA hosted a 2-day symposium, "Alcohol Across the Lifespan: 50 Years of Evidence-Based Diagnosis, Prevention, and Treatment Research," devoted to key topics within the field of alcohol research. This article is based on Dr. Keyes' presentation at the event. NIAAA Director George F. Koob, Ph.D., serves as editor of the Festschrift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Changes in cannabis legalization and availability in Australia necessitate monitoring use and attitudes. We estimated age–period–cohort effects of past‐year cannabis use and attitudes toward criminalization and legalization. Design Analysis of six waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) every 3 years (2001–2016). Setting and participants: The study was nationally representative of Australian households using multistage random sampling, totaling 145 168 respondents 18–79 years old. Data were collected using telephone, face‐to‐face, and drop‐and‐collect. Sample sizes per analysis varied based on data availability (~107 000–127 000 per model). Measurements Six waves of data for past‐year cannabis use (by sex and education), attitudes toward criminalization and legalization. Findings Past‐year cannabis use decreased in young adults ages 18–35 from 2001–2016 (25.1%–18.6%) and increased in middle adults ages 36–55 (8.6%–10.1%) and older adults ages 56–79 (0.6%–3.0%). We observed a positive period effect and negative cohort effect for recent cohorts for past‐year use (e.g. 1955 cohort had 1.41 (95% CI: [1.11, 1.70]) increased log odds vs. 1998 cohort had −2.86 (95% CI: [−3.17, −2.55]) increased log odds) compared with the mean across years. Results were consistent by sex and varied by education. We observed a negative period effect for criminalization favorability (0.14 (95% CI: [0.003, 0.28]) increased log odds in 2001 vs. ‐0.31 (95% CI: [−0.45, −0.17]) increased log odds in 2016) and positive cohort effect for recent cohorts. Last, we observed a positive period effect for legalization support (−0.03 (95% CI: [−0.20, 0.14]) increased log odds in 2001 vs. 0.38 (95% CI: [0.22, 0.55]) increased log odds in 2016) and negative cohort effect for recent cohorts. Conclusion: Cannabis use appears to be increasing in Australia among adults over 35, while decreasing among adolescents and young adults. Legalization support also appears to have been increasing since 2007, signaling discordance between use and attitudes among adolescents and young adults, and potentially predicting increases in use over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To synthesize the available evidence on the extent to which area-level socioeconomic conditions are associated with drug overdose deaths in the United States. Methods: We performed a systematic review (in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Web of Science, EconLit) for papers published prior to July 2022. Eligible studies quantitatively estimated the association between an area-level measure of socioeconomic conditions and drug overdose deaths in the US, and were published in English. We assessed study quality using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool. The protocol was preregistered at Prospero (CRD42019121317). Results: We identified 28 studies that estimated area-level effects of socioeconomic conditions on drug overdose deaths in the US. Studies were scored as having moderate to serious risk of bias attributed to both confounding and in analysis. Socioeconomic conditions and drug overdose death rates were moderately associated, and this was a consistent finding across a large number of measures and differences in study designs (e.g., cross-sectional versus longitudinal), years of data analyzed, and primary unit of analysis (e.g., ZIP code, county, state). Conclusions: This review highlights the evidence for area-level socioeconomic conditions are an important factor underlying the geospatial distribution of drug overdose deaths in the US and the need to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations to inform future policy recommendations. The current evidence base suggests that, at least in the United States, employment, income, and poverty interventions may be effective targets for preventing drug overdose mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization recommends that treatment of depression in low and middle-income countries with a scarcity of psychiatrists could be done in primary care and should include prescription of antidepressant medications for moderate and severe depression. Little is known, however, about the actual practices of antidepressant prescription by primary care physicians in low and middle-income countries, nor about adherence by people receiving such prescriptions. In a large study of primary care clinics in Goa, India, we examined the relationship of actual to recommended prescribing practices for depression, among all patients who screened positive for common mental disorder. We also examined other patient and clinic characteristics associated with antidepressant prescription, and self-reported adherence over a one-month period. Methods: Patients attending 24 primary care clinics were screened for common mental disorders. Those who screened positive were eligible to enroll in a trial to assess the effectiveness of a collaborative stepped care (CSC) intervention for mental disorders. Physicians in the 12 intervention and 12 control clinics (usual care) were free to prescribe antidepressants and follow-up interviews were conducted at 2, 6 and 12 months. Screening results were shared with the physician, but they were blinded to the diagnosis generated later using a standardized diagnostic interview administered by a health counsellor. We categorized these later diagnoses as "moderate/severe depression", "mild depression or non-depression diagnosis", and "no diagnosis". We used a two-level hierarchical logistic regression model to examine diagnostic and other factors associated with antidepressant prescription and one-month adherence. Results: Overall, about 47% of screened positive patients (n = 1320) received an antidepressant prescription: 60% of those with moderate/severe depression, 48% of those with mild depression or non-depression diagnosis, and 31% with no diagnosis. Women (OR 1.29; 95%CI 1.04–1.60) and older adults (OR 1.80; 95%CI 1.32–2.47) were more likely to receive an antidepressant prescription. While the overall rate of antidepressant prescription was similar in clinics with and without CSC, patients without any diagnosis were more likely to receive a prescription (OR 2.20 95% CI 1.03–4.70) in the usual care clinics. About 47% of patients adhered to antidepressant treatment for one month or more and adherence was significantly better among older adults (OR 3.92; 95% CI 1.70–8.93) and those who received antidepressant as part of the CSC treatment model (OR 6.10 95% CI 3.67–10.14) compared with those attending the usual care clinic. Conclusion: Antidepressants were widely prescribed following screening in primary care, but prescription patterns were in poor accord with WHO recommendations. The data suggest under-prescription for people with moderate/severe depression; over-prescription for people with mild depression or non-depression diagnoses; and over-prescription for people with no disorders. For all diagnoses adherence was low, especially in usual care clinics. To address these concerns, there is an urgent need to study and develop strategies in primary care practices to limit unnecessary antidepressant prescriptions, target prescription for those patients who clearly benefit, and to improve adherence to antidepressant treatment. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00446407. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide in the US has increased in the last decade, across virtually every age and demographic group. Parallel increases have occurred in non-fatal self-harm as well. Research on suicide across the world has consistently demonstrated that suicide shares many properties with a communicable disease, including person-to-person transmission and point-source outbreaks. This essay illustrates the communicable nature of suicide through analogy to basic infectious disease principles, including evidence for transmission and vulnerability through the agent–host–environment triad. We describe how mathematical modeling, a suite of epidemiological methods, which the COVID-19 pandemic has brought into renewed focus, can and should be applied to suicide in order to understand the dynamics of transmission and to forecast emerging risk areas. We describe how new and innovative sources of data, including social media and search engine data, can be used to augment traditional suicide surveillance, as well as the opportunities and challenges for modeling suicide as a communicable disease process in an effort to guide clinical and public health suicide prevention efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, the author discusses a public health strategy in discussing the role of culture in the spread of the gun violence epidemic in the U.S. Topics include the data showing gun-related violence as top cause of morbidity and mortality in the U.S., the cases of firearm-related suicides, and other topics like gun ownership, social gun culture, and gun violence.

Objectives: Survey nonresponse has increased across decades, making the amount of attrition a focus in generating inferences from longitudinal data. Use of inverse probability weights [IPWs] and other statistical approaches are common, but residual bias remains a threat. Quantitative bias analysis for nonrandom attrition as an adjunct to IPW may yield more robust inference. Methods: Data were drawn from the Monitoring the Future panel studies [twelfth grade, base‐year: 1976–2005; age 29/30 follow‐up: 1987–2017, N = 73,298]. We then applied IPW imputation in increasing percentages, assuming varying risk differences [RDs] among nonresponders. Measurements included past‐two‐week binge drinking at base‐year and every follow‐up. Demographic and other correlates of binge drinking contributed to IPW estimation. Results: Attrition increased: 31.14%, base‐year 1976; 61.33%, base‐year 2005. The magnitude of bias depended not on attrition rate but on prevalence of binge drinking and RD among nonrespondents. The probable range of binge drinking among nonresponders was 12–45%. In every scenario, base‐year and follow‐up binge drinking were associated. The likely range of true RDs was 0.14 [95% CI: 0.11–0.17] to 0.28 [95% CI: 0.25–0.31]. Conclusions: When attrition is present, the amount of attrition alone is insufficient to understand contribution to effect estimates. We recommend including bias analysis in longitudinal analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Material well-being, beliefs, and emotional states are believed to influence one's health and longevity. In this paper, we explore racial differences in self-rated health, happiness, trust in others, feeling that society is fair, believing in God, frequency of sexual intercourse, educational attainment, and percent in poverty and their association with mortality. Study designs: Age-period-cohort (APC) study. Methods: Using data from the 1978–2014 General Social Survey-National Death Index (GSS-NDI), we conducted APC analyses using generalized linear models to quantify the temporal trends of racial differences in our selected measures of well-being, beliefs, and emotional states. We then conducted APC survival analysis using mixed-effects Cox proportional hazard models to quantify the temporal trends of racial differences in survival after removing the effects of racial differences in our selected measures. Results: For whites, the decline in happiness was steeper than for blacks despite an increase in high school graduation rates among whites relative to blacks over the entire period, 1978–2010. Self-rated health increased in whites relative to blacks from 1978 through 1989 but underwent a relative decline thereafter. After adjusting for age, sex, period effects, and birth cohort effects, whites, overall, had higher rates of self-rated health (odds ratio [OR] = 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.63, 2.16), happiness (OR = 2.05; 1.77, 2.36), and high school graduation (OR = 2.88; 2.34, 3.53) compared with blacks. Self-rated health, happiness, and high school graduation also mediated racial differences in survival over time. Conclusions: We showed that some racial differences in survival could be partly mitigated by eliminating racial differences in health, happiness, and educational attainment. Future research is needed to analyze longitudinal clusters and identify causal mechanisms by which social, behavioral, and economic interventions can reduce survival differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Binge and heavy drinking are preventable causes of mortality and morbidity. Alcohol consumption by women who parent is damaging to child health, and it is concerning that women in the United States in their reproductive years have experienced increased drinking over the past decade. Although media attention has focused on the drinking status of women who are child-rearing, it remains unclear whether binge and heavy drinking vary by parenting status and sex.Methods and Findings: We examined national trends in binge drinking, defined as 5 or more drinks in a single day for men and 4 or more drinks for women, and heavy drinking, defined as 60 or more days with binge episodes in a year. We used survey-weighted logistic regression from the 2006-2018 waves of the cross-sectional National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, N = 239,944 eligible respondents) to study time trends in drinking outcomes by sex, age, and parenting status. Binge drinking increased for both sexes in nearly all age groups, with the largest increase among women ages 30-44 without children (from 21% reporting binge drinking in 2006 to 42% in 2018); the exception was young men (ages 18-29) with children, among whom binge drinking declined. By 2012, the prevalence of binge drinking among young men with children (38.5%) declined to below that of young women without children (39.2%) and stayed lower thereafter. Despite widespread increases in binge drinking, heavy drinking declined or remained stable for all groups except older women (ages 45-55) without children (odds ratio [OR] for heavy drinking each year = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.10) and women ages 30-44, regardless of parenting status. For binge drinking outcomes only, we saw evidence of interaction in drinking trends by parenting status, but this was shown to be confounded by sex and age. Men and women with children reported consistently lower levels of drinking than those without children. Rates of abstention mirrored trends in binge outcomes for both sexes, limiting concerns about invariance. Study limitations include self-reported data and measurement invariance in binge drinking cutoffs across study years.Conclusions: This study demonstrated that trends in binge and heavy drinking over time were not differential by parenting status for women; rather, declines and increases over time were mainly attributable to sex and age. Women both with and without children are increasing binge and heavy drinking; men, regardless of parenting status, and women without children consumed more alcohol than women with children. Regardless of impact on child health, increased drinking rates in the past decade are concerning for adult morbidity and mortality: binge drinking has increased among both sexes, and heavy drinking has increased among older women. Men and women of all ages and parenting status should be screened for heavy alcohol use and referred to specialty care as appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mental health problems and mental health related mortality have increased among adolescents, particularly girls. These trends have implications for etiology and prevention and suggest new and emerging risk factors in need of attention. The present study estimated age, period, and cohort effects in depressive symptoms among US nationally representative samples of school attending adolescents from 1991 to 2018.Methods: Data are drawn from 1991 to 2018 Monitoring the Future yearly cross-sectional surveys of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (N = 1,260,159). Depressive symptoms measured with four questions that had consistent wording and data collection procedures across all 28 years. Age-period-cohort effects estimated using the hierarchical age-period-cohort models.Results: Among girls, depressive symptoms decreased from 1991 to 2011, then reversed course, peaking in 2018; these increases reflected primarily period effects, which compared to the mean of all periods showed a gradual increase starting in 2012 and peaked in 2018 (estimate = 1.15, p < 0.01). Cohort effects were minimal, indicating that increases are observed across all age groups. Among boys, trends were similar although the extent of the increase is less marked compared to girls; there was a declining cohort effect among recently born cohorts, suggesting that increases in depressive symptoms among boys are slower for younger boys compared to older boys in recent years. Trends were generally similar by race/ethnicity and parental education, with a positive cohort effect for Hispanic girls born 1999-2004.Conclusions: Depressive symptoms are increasing among teens, especially among girls, consistent with increases in depression and suicide. Population variation in psychiatric disorder symptoms highlight the importance of current environmental determinants of psychiatric disorder risk, and provide evidence of emerging risk factors that may be shaping a new and concerning trend in adolescent mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alcohol consumption in later life has increased in the past decade, and the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality is controversial. Recent studies suggest little, if any, health benefit to alcohol. Yet most rely on single–time point consumption assessments and minimal confounder adjustments. Methods: We report on 16 years of follow‐up from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohorts born 1931 to 1941 (N = 7,904, baseline mean age = 61, SD = 3.18). Respondents were queried about drinking frequency/quantity. Mortality was established via exit interviews and confirmed with the national death index. Time‐varying confounders included but were not limited to household assets, smoking, body mass index, health/functioning, depression, chronic disease; time‐invariant confounders included baseline age, education, sex, and race. Results: After adjustment, current abstainers had the highest risk of subsequent mortality, consistent with sick quitters, and moderate (men: HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.91; women: HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.63 to 1.07) drinking was associated with a lower mortality rate compared with occasional drinking, though smokers and men evidenced less of an inverse association. Quantitative bias analyses indicated that omitted confounders would need to be associated with ~4‐fold increases in mortality rates for men and ~9‐fold increases for women to change the results. Conclusions: There are consistent associations between moderate/occasional drinking and lower mortality, though residual confounding remains a threat to validity. Continued efforts to conduct large‐scale observational studies of alcohol consumption and mortality are needed to characterize the changing patterns of consumption in older age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the USA, Black women aged 25–44 years are disproportionately murdered compared with their White counterparts. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce racial and structural inequities, the result of these efforts remains unclear, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined a cross-sectional time series of homicide death rates, by race, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research system. We included data for women aged 25–44 years between 1999 and 2020 among 30 states in the USA. Homicide death was classified using underlying cause and multiple cause of death codes; mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 based on US Census Bureau population sizes. Homicide methods were classified as firearm, cutting or piercing, and other. Firearm homicides were compared with other homicides with logistic regression including covariates of race, time, and their interaction. We report odds ratios and 95% CIs. In 2020, the homicide rate among Black women was 11·6 per 100 000, compared with 3 per 100 000 among White women. This inequity has persisted over time and is virtually unchanged since 1999. Homicide inequities vary across US states; in 11 states, racial inequities have increased since 1999. The racial inequity was greatest in Wisconsin, where in 2019–20, Black women aged 25–44 years were 20 times more likely to die by homicide than White women. Homicide by firearm is increasing in frequency; women in the USA had 2·44 (95% CI 2·14–2·78) times the odds of homicide involving firearms in 2019–20 compared with 1999–2003. Firearm homicide deaths are disproportionately concentrated among Black women in every region in the USA. Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need to address homicide inequities among Black and White women in the USA. Enacting federal legislation that reduces gun access is a crucial step. Policy makers must address long-standing structural factors that underpin elevated gun violence by implementing sustainable wealth-building opportunities; developing desegregated, mixed income and affordable housing; and increasing green spaces in communities where Black women largely reside. National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two-fold of increase in the prevalence of adolescent depression and co-occurring suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts from 2011 to 2019. • Slight or no improvement in adolescent treatment use for depression and co-occurring suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts from 2011 to 2019. • Continued high prevalence and wide treatment gaps in adolescent depression and co-occurring suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts in 2020. • Extensive treatment disparities in racial/ethnic minorities and adolescents of low socioeconomic status. This study aimed to examine national trends and disparities in the prevalence and treatment of adolescent 12-month major depressive episode (MDE) with co-occurring suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts. Publicly available data for adolescents aged 12–17 in the 2011–2020 National Survey on Drug Use and Health were analyzed. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted. In 2011, 4.6%, 2.1%, and 1.7% of adolescents had 12-month MDE with co-occurring suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts, and the prevalence increased steadily to 9.8%, 5.3%, and 3.5% in 2019, respectively. In 2011, 45% of adolescents with MDE and suicidal thoughts received any mental health treatment, and the prevalence increased slightly to 46.6% in 2019. Meanwhile, the prevalence of treatment use among adolescents with MDE and suicidal plans remained stable at below 54%. Lastly, the prevalence of treatment use increased significantly from 53.6% in 2011 to 60.8% in 2019 among those with MDE and suicidal attempts. Continued high prevalence and low treatment use were observed in 2020. Disparities in treatment use were found in older adolescents, adolescents without insurance, Hispanics, and Asians. Concerted efforts are needed to prioritize evidence-based interventions, enhance outreach to high-risk groups, and expand service provisions to underserved adolescents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use is associated with adverse consequences for youth. While SAM use is overall declining among youth, prior studies indicate increasing marijuana use among US adolescents who ever used cigarettes, suggesting possible moderation of the alcohol-marijuana relationship by cigarette use. We included 43,845 12-th grade students participating in Monitoring the Future data (2000–2020). A 5-level alcohol/marijuana measure was used, including past-year SAM, alcohol-only, marijuana-only, non-simultaneous alcohol and marijuana, or no use. Multinomial logistic regressions estimated associations between time periods (categorized based on sample size: 2000–2005, 2006–2009, 2010–2014, 2015–2020) and the 5-level alcohol/marijuana measure. Models adjusted for sex, race, parental education and survey mode and included interactions of time periods and lifetime cigarette or vaped nicotine use. While overall SAM among 12th graders decreased from 23.65% to 18.31% between 2000 and 2020, SAM increased among students who never used cigarettes or vaped nicotine (from 5.42% to 7.03%). Among students who ever used cigarettes or vaped nicotine, SAM increased from 39.2% in 2000–2005–44.1% in 2010–2014 then declined to 37.8% in 2015–2020. Adjusted models controlling for demographics indicated that among students with no lifetime cigarette or vaped nicotine use, students in 2015–2020 had 1.40 (95% C.I. 1.15–1.71) times the odds of SAM, and 5.43 (95% C.I. 3.63–8.12) times the odds of marijuana-only (i.e., no alcohol use) compared to students who used neither in 2000–2005. Alcohol-only declined over time in both students who ever and never used cigarettes or nicotine vape products. Paradoxically, while SAM declined in the overall adolescent US population, the prevalence of SAM increased among students who have never smoked cigarettes or vaped nicotine. This effect arises because of a substantial decline in the prevalence of cigarette smoking; smoking is a risk factor for SAM, and fewer students smoke. Increases in vaping are offsetting these changes, however. Preventing adolescent use of cigarettes and nicotine vaped products could have extended benefits for other substance use, including SAM. • From 2000–2020, SAM increased among students who have never smoked cigarettes or vaped nicotine, despite declining overall. • Despite declines in smoking, increase in vaping may reverse declining trends in simultaneous alcohol and marijuana use. • Marijuana use is increasing in US adolescents, whereas alcohol‐use‐only is declining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on substance use and abuse. Particular focus is given to how substance use may have changed because of quarantining, bereavement, financial and employment distress. The research concludes that alcohol use and other forms of substance use are in the midst of ongoing, long-term period fluctuations.

Alcohol consumption is increasing in the United States, as is alcohol‐attributable mortality. Historically, men have had higher rates of alcohol consumption than women, though evidence for birth cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol consumption and alcohol‐related harm suggests that gender differences may be diminishing. We review studies using U.S. national data that examined time trends in alcohol consumption and alcohol‐related harm since 2008. Utilizing a historical–developmental perspective, here we synthesize and integrate the literature on birth cohort effects from varying developmental periods (i.e., adolescence, young adulthood, middle adulthood, and late adulthood), with a focus on gender differences in alcohol consumption. Findings suggest that recent trends in gender differences in alcohol outcomes are heterogeneous by developmental stage. Among adolescents and young adults, both males and females are rapidly decreasing alcohol consumption, binge and high‐intensity drinking, and alcohol‐related outcomes, with gender rates converging because males are decreasing consumption faster than females. This pattern does not hold among adults, however. In middle adulthood, consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol‐related harms are increasing, driven largely by increases among women in their 30s and 40s. The trend of increases in consumption that are faster for women than for men appears to continue into older adult years (60 and older) across several studies. We conclude by addressing remaining gaps in the literature and offering directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems science models use computer-based algorithms to model dynamic interactions between study units within and across levels and are characterized by nonlinear and feedback processes. They are particularly valuable approaches that complement the traditional epidemiologic toolbox in cases in which real data are not available and in cases in which traditional epidemiologic methods are limited by issues such as interference, spatial dependence, and dynamic feedback processes. In this commentary, we propose 2 key contributions that systems models can make to epidemiology: 1) the ability to test assumptions about underlying mechanisms that give rise to population distributions of disease; and 2) help in identifying the types of interventions that have the greatest potential to reduce population rates of disease in the future or in new sites where they have not yet been implemented. We discuss central challenges in the application of systems science approaches in epidemiology, propose potential solutions, and predict future developments in the role that systems science can play in epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most research on the prevalence, distribution, and psychiatric comorbidity of intellectual disability (ID) relies on clinical samples, limiting the generalizability and utility of ID assessment in a legal context. This study assessed ID prevalence in a population-representative sample of US adolescents and examined associations of ID with socio-demographic factors and mental disorders. Methods: Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Supplement (N = 6256). ID was defined as: (1) IQ ⩽ 76, measured using the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test; (2) an adaptive behavior score ⩽76, and (3) age of onset ⩽18 measured using a validated scale. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed 15 lifetime mental disorders. The Sheehan disability scale assessed disorder severity. We used logistic regression models to estimate differences in lifetime disorders for adolescents with and without ID. Results: ID prevalence was 3.2%. Among adolescents with ID, 65.1% met lifetime criteria for a mental disorder. ID status was associated with specific phobia, agoraphobia, and bipolar disorder, but not behavior disorders after adjustment for socio-demographics. Adolescents with ID and mental disorders were significantly more likely to exhibit severe impairment than those without ID. Conclusions: These findings highlight how sample selection and overlap between ID and psychopathology symptoms might bias understanding of the mental health consequences of ID. For example, associations between ID and behavior disorders widely reported in clinical samples were not observed in a population-representative sample after adjustment for socio-demographic confounders. Valid assessment and understanding of these constructs may prove influential in the legal system by influencing treatment referrals and capital punishment decisions. General Scientific Summary: Current definitions of intellectual disability (ID) are based on three criteria: formal designation of low intelligence through artificial problem-solving tasks, impairment in one's ability to function in his/her social environment, and early age of onset. In a national population sample of adolescents, the majority of those with ID met criteria for a lifetime mental disorder. Phobias and bipolar disorder, but not behavior disorders, were elevated in adolescents with ID. Findings highlight the need to consider how behavioral problems are conceptualized and classified in people with ID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To estimate the number of lives saved from firearms suicide with expansions of gun restrictions based on mental health compared with the number who would be unnecessarily restricted. Methods. Agent-based models simulated effects on suicide mortality resulting from 5-year ownership disqualifications in New York City for individuals with any psychiatric hospitalization and, more broadly, anyone receiving psychiatric treatment. Results. Restrictions based on New York State Office of Mental Health–identified psychiatric hospitalizations reduced suicide among those hospitalized by 85.1% (95% credible interval = 36.5%, 100.0%). Disqualifications for anyone receiving psychiatric treatment reduced firearm suicide rates among those affected and in the population; however, 244 820 people were prohibited from firearm ownership who would not have died from firearm suicide even without the policy. Conclusions. In this simulation, denying firearm access to individuals in psychiatric treatment reduces firearm suicide among those groups but largely will not affect population rates. Broad and unfeasible disqualification criteria would needlessly restrict millions at low risk, with potential consequences for civil rights, increased stigma, and discouraged help seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on drinking, non‐fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City (NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences, and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in alcohol‐related violence. Design Agent‐based modeling simulation. Setting: NYC, USA. Participants: Adult population aged 18–64 years in the year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256 500 agents approximates a 5% sample of the NYC population. Measurements Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and meta‐analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10%, and beer tax by 1, 5 and 10%. Findings Under no tax increase, approximately 12.2% [95% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) = 12.1–12.3%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of heavy drinkers; a 10% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6% (95% PI = 9.4–9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption. Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the highest income groups. Alcohol‐related homicide decreased from 3.22 per 100 000 (95% PI = 2.50–3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10% universal tax (95% PI = 1.92–2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit of ~1200 lives/year. Conclusion: Reductions in alcohol consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax increases also have a modest effect on alcohol‐related violent victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in alcohol‐related violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In the past decade, marijuana use prevalence among adolescents has remained relatively steady while cigarette and alcohol prevalence has declined. We examined historical trends in: average grade of onset of marijuana, alcohol, and cigarette use by 12th grade; proportion who try alcohol/cigarettes before first marijuana use, among those who use by 12th grade; and conditional probability of marijuana use by 12th grade after trying alcohol/cigarettes.Methods: Data were drawn from 40 yearly, cross-sectional surveys of 12th grade US adolescents. A subset of students (N = 246,050) were asked when they first used each substance. We reconstructed cohorts of substance use from grade-of-onset to determine sequence of drug use, as well as probability of marijuana use in the same or later grade.Results: Average grade of first alcohol and cigarette use by 12th grade increased across time; e.g., first cigarette increased from grade 7.9 in 1986 to 9.0 by 2016 (β=0.04, SE = 0.001, p < 0.01). The proportion of 12th grade adolescents who smoke cigarettes before marijuana fell below 50% in 2006. Each one-year increase was associated with 1.11 times increased odds of first cigarette in a grade after first marijuana (95% C.I. 1.11-1.12). Among those who initiate alcohol/cigarettes prior to marijuana by 12th grade, the probability of subsequent marijuana use is increasing.Conclusion: Marijuana is increasingly the first substance in the sequence of adolescent drug use. Reducing adolescent smoking has been a remarkable achievement of the past 20 years; those who continue to smoke are at higher risk for progression to marijuana use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Depression is a prevalent health problem affecting U.S. women. Oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) are commonly used for pregnancy prevention, and evidence is mixed regarding any increased risk for incident depression among users, particularly adolescents.Methods: We examined the relationship between OCP use and depressive disorders among female adolescents using validated, structured interview assessments in a general population sample of adolescents in the National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement. Respondents were 4765 female adolescents with no history of pregnancy who reported current OCP use, lifetime OCP use, and age of OCP initiation. Lifetime and current depressive disorders, including major depressive disorder and depressive episodes, were assessed by lay interviewers.Results: In logistic regression models adjusted for a range of confounders, there was no relationship between ever using OCPs and lifetime depressive disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.37), nor current use of OCPs and current depressive disorder (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.50-1.35). Using survival analysis for age-of-onset data, we found that OCP use is not associated with an increased risk of depressive disorders.Conclusions: In sum, use of OCPs in a general population sample of adolescents did not increase the risk of depressive disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commentary is provided for the article "Electronic cigarettes, nicotine use trends and use initiation ages among US adolescents from 1999 to 2018" by F. Foxon and A.S. Selya which appears in a 2020 issue of the journal. The public health aspects of a decrease in cigarette use by teenagers are examined, along with the health-based harms that are associated with electronic cigarette use.

Epidemiologic studies in the United States routinely report a lower or equal prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) for Black people relative to White people. Within racial groups, individuals with greater life stressor exposure experience greater prevalence of MDD; however, between racial groups this pattern does not hold. Informed by theoretical and empirical literature seeking to explain this "Black-White depression paradox," we outline 2 proposed models for the relationships between racial group membership, life stressor exposure, and MDD: an effect modification model and an inconsistent mediator model. Either model could explain the paradoxical within- and between-racial group patterns of life stressor exposure and MDD. We empirically estimated associations under each of the proposed models using data from 26,960 self-identified Black and White participants in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III (United States, 2012–2013). Under the effect modification model, we estimated relative risk effect modification using parametric regression with a cross-product term, and under the inconsistent mediation model, we estimated interventional direct and indirect effects using targeted minimum loss-based estimation. We found evidence of inconsistent mediation (i.e. direct and indirect effects operating in opposite directions), suggesting a need for greater consideration of explanations for racial patterns in MDD that operate independent of life stressor exposure. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Assessments of child psychopathology are often derived from parental and teacher reports, yet there is substantial disagreement. This study utilized data from 7 European countries to examine parent–teacher agreement and possible explanatory factors for parent–teacher disagreement such as child and family characteristics, parenting dimensions, and maternal distress were explored. Parent–teacher agreement of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire were assessed using a cross‐sectional survey of 4,894 school aged children 6–11 from the School Children Mental Health Europe Project. Parent–teacher agreement was low to moderate (Pearson correlation ranging from .24 (Prosocial) to .48 (Hyperactivity) for the 5 subscales across 7 countries); kappa coefficient ranged from .01 (Turkey) to .44 (Italy) for internalizing problems and .19(Romania) to .44(Italy) for externalizing problems. Child's gender and age, mother's employment status, single parent home, number of children in household, and selected parenting dimension were found to be explanatory of informant disagreement. This study not only serves to advance our understanding of parent–teacher agreement of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire in 7 European countries but provides a novel approach to examining the factors that contribute to informant disagreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To assess cohort effects in prescription opioid and heroin overdose mortality in the United States. Methods. Using the National Center for Health Statistics' multiple-cause-of-death file for 1999 to 2014, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis of drug overdose mortality in the United States. Results. Compared with those born in 1977 and 1978, individuals born between 1947 and 1964 experienced excess risks of prescription opioid overdose death (e.g., for the 1955-1956 birth cohort, rate ratio [RR] = 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.48) and of heroin overdose death (e.g., for the 1953-1954 birth cohort, RR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.11, 1.57). Those born between 1979 and 1992 also experienced an increased risk of heroin overdose death (e.g., for the 1989-1990 birth cohort, RR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.50). The cohort effects were consistent between sexes. Conclusions. Individuals born between 1947 and 1964 and between 1979 and 1992 are particularly afflicted by the opioid epidemic. Intervention programs are needed to reduce the excess overdose mortality in these specific demographic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of community service for the well-being of individuals and communities, relatively little is known about the developmental course of community service during the transition to adulthood (TTA). This study tested competing hypotheses about change in community service across the TTA by estimating latent growth models from Ages 18 to 26 in a national U.S. sample. Analyses tested for cohort differences in community service and for individual differences in developmental trajectories by socioeconomic status, gender, grades, religiosity, race/ethnicity, college expectations, and college degree attainment. Using Monitoring the Future data from 1976 to 2011, the best-fitting latent growth model for community service was quadratic: Community service declined from Ages 18 to 24 and leveled off thereafter. Cohort differences in intercepts indicated that Age 18 community service increased over historical time; developmental declines in community service were consistent over 4 decades. Parent education predicted higher Age 18 community service but not growth parameters. Community service trajectories varied by gender, high school grades, religiosity, college expectations, and educational attainment, although all groups declined. Findings contribute to civic developmental theory by clarifying age and cohort effects in community service. Rising levels of community service at Age 18 may reflect heightened focus on service in high schools or the role of other socialization forces, yet these increases do not mitigate the decline across the TTA. We highlight the need for rethinking the ways in which institutions and communities can better support youth community service during the TTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Marijuana use has been decreasing in the past several years among adolescents, though variation in the extent and rate of decrease across racial/ethnic groups is inadequately understood.Methods: The present study utilized nationally-representative data in Monitoring the Future from 2006 to 2015 to examine trends over time in past 30-day marijuana use. We examine whether differences in trends over time by race and ethnicity also differ by individual-level, school-level, and state-level factors. Sample included 131,351 8th grade students, 137,249 10th grade students, and 123,293 12th grade students; multi-level models and difference-in-differences tests were used.Results: In 10th grade, Black students had a positive linear increase in marijuana use (est=0.04, SE=0.01, p<0.001), and the magnitude of the increase was significantly greater than among non-Hispanic White students (est=0.38, SE=0.009, p<0.001). The increase trend among Black students was greater among those in large class sizes. In 12th grade, all racial ethnic groups except non-Hispanic Whites demonstrated a linear increase in prevalence across time. The magnitude of the increase among Hispanic students was greater among those in urban areas and large class sizes. The magnitude of the increase among Black students was greater in states with a medical marijuana law before 2006 (est=0.06, SE=0.03, p=0.02), among other state-level covariates.Conclusion: Together these results suggest that the next stage of public health approaches to reducing the harms associated with adolescent drug use should attend to shifting demographic patterns of use among adolescents and ensure that services and programmatic approaches to adolescent prevention are applied equitably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have shown that combat-area deployment is associated with increases in alcohol use; however, studying the influence of deployment on alcohol use faces 2 complications. First, the military considers a confluence of factors before determining whether to deploy a service member, creating a nonignorable exposure and unbalanced comparison groups that inevitably complicate inference about the role of deployment itself. Second, regression analysis assumes that a single effect estimate can approximate the population's change in postdeployment alcohol use, which ignores previous studies that have documented that respondents tend to exhibit heterogeneous postdeployment drinking behaviors. Therefore, we used propensity score matching to balance baseline covariates for the 2 comparison groups (deployed and nondeployed), followed by a variable-oriented difference-in-differences approach to account for the confounding and a person-oriented approach using a latent growth mixture model to account for the heterogeneous response to deployment in this prospective cohort study of the US Army National Guard (2009-2014). We observed a nonsignificant increase in estimated monthly drinks in the first year after deployment that regressed to predeployment drinking levels 2 years after deployment. We found a 4-class model that fit these data best, suggesting that common regression analyses likely conceal substantial interindividual heterogeneity in postdeployment alcohol-use behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]