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Non-PR, IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, Agriculture is the mainstay of Uganda’s economy, contributing about 25% of the GDP, a third of the ex port earnings and almost all the country’s food requirements. Yet, the sector still faces various chal lenges that affect production and the income derived from it. Systemic issues impact smallholder farm ers' livelihoods across markets, land, skills, and capital, with cross-cutting social exclusion issues. Ef fective application of digital agricultural technologies has emerged as a catalyst in addressing produc tivity and efficiency challenges and enhancing inclusiveness in agri-food systems. Digital technologies have shown potential to address bottlenecks in access to extension services, marketing systems, suita ble financial products, reliable weather information, transport services and logistics as well as supply chain management. Scaling of digital agricultural technologies in Uganda is critical for improving productivity and addressing challenges in the agricultural sector. However, for scaling to be undertaken effectively and inclusively, there is need to address the barriers that limit the use of digital innovations for some populations. However, the issues surrounding scaling and inclusivity of digital services are not well understood. This study therefore sought to contribute to bridging this knowledge gap through an assessment of the existing digitally enabled innovative cross-value chain services to gain insights into how the services are addressing inefficiencies, creating opportunities for improving efficiency and inclu siveness as well as identifying promising innovations for scaling. Specifically, the study focused on in novations in finance and logistics for value chains. For finance, the study specifically looked at digital payments, credit, and insurance, while for logistics, the focus was on supply chain management, trans portation, traceability, digital platforms for e-commerce, and (cold) storage across value chains.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; DCA; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; BioRAPP, PIM; EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), An enabling, evidence-based decision-making framework is critical to support agricultural biotechnology innovation, and to ensure farmers’ access to genetically modified (GM) crops, including orphan crop varieties. A key element, and often a challenge in the decision making process, involves the balancing of identified potential risks with expected economic benefits from GM crops. The latter is particularly challenging in the case of orphan crops, for which solid economic data is scarce. To address this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with local economists analyzed the expected economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the adoption of GM crops in 5 sub-Saharan African countries. This paper focuses on case studies involving insect resistant cowpea in Nigeria and Ghana; disease-resistant cassava in Uganda and Tanzania; and disease-resistant banana in Uganda. Estimations from these case studies show substantial economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the timely adoption and planting in farmers’ fields of GM orphan crops. Our analysis also shows how the benefits would significantly be reduced by regulatory or other delays that affect the timely release of these crops. These findings underscore the importance of having an enabling policy environment and regulatory system—covering, among other elements, biosafety and food/feed safety assessment, and varietal release registration—that is efficient, predictable, and transparent to ensure that the projected economic benefits are delivered and realized in a timely manner.

PR, IFPRI4; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD, As growing populations, changing diets, and climate change affect growing conditions for crops, our agriculture and food systems must increase production and productivity to ensure access to healthy and diverse diets for all. The expanding demands on agriculture and food systems must be met without increasing pressure on the environment, and while accomplishing other development goals and objectives. Addressing this complex problem requires the identification of game-changing interventions that can drive sustainable, equitable agriculture for food system transformation. “Bio-innovations” will be one key set of interventions. Bio-innovations encompass biotechnology-based tools and product innovations, as well as innovations in their governance, regulation, and social and business contexts. They hold potential to contribute to food system transformation by accelerating productivity growth and reducing agriculture’s environmental footprint, as well as contributing to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

PR, IFPRI3; CRP3.4; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening, EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tuber, and Bananas (RTB), The livelihoods of millions of banana-farming households have been affected by Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) in Uganda for nearly two decades. The disease has no known cure, all banana cultivars grown are susceptible to it and it is endemic in all banana-producing regions in the country. This study analysed the long-term impact of the disease on the livelihoods of banana-producing households. Using a balanced panel dataset of 1,056 households, which were visited in 2015 and revisited in 2018, provides the opportunity to empirically measure the long-term consequences of the disease on farmers’ economic wellbeing in the four major banana growing regions in Uganda. We find striking results pertinent to disease incidence, success in disease management, household income and poverty when deploying BXW control practices. Although the disease has remained present in farmers’ fields, there is a significant reduction in household poverty levels. Results show that some farmers expanded the production of beans and coffee without encroaching on their banana plantations. Increase in bean production was largely through intercropping. Investment in coffee was constrained by land ownership, hence only a viable venture for the wealthy farmers who own bigger pieces of land. Land-poor farmers continued to rely on bananas for their livelihoods. Consistent participation in disease management training significantly influenced adoption of the cultural control practices. Consequently, farming households that systematically adopted these practices were able to maintain low levels of disease incidence, improve productivity by 438 kg/ha/year and increased their daily and annual household income by US$1.75 and UGX 2.383 million (US$648), respectively. The findings suggest that banana is an important crop to smallholder farmers and expansion into other cash crops requires bigger resource outlays, and that despite continued exposure to BXW, farmers’ income increased over time. Farmers should cont

We analyse the impact of two large-scale regime shifts caused by disease incidence or climate change, and associated crop productivity and price changes, on banana-based smallholders in Uganda. We evaluate these farmers' vulnerability and assess the potential of using increased crop diversity to improve their resilience. We further explore trade-offs and synergies between environmental, economic and nutritional outcomes faced by the farmers in their decision making when a regime shift occurs. We simulate the large-scale scenarios with the IMPACT model and use the results obtained to assess their effect at the local level using the bio-economic farm-household model, FarmDESIGN. Our results indicate that climate change can lead to a regime shift that expands revenue variance, increases soil erosion and reduces vitamin A yield for farmers. Banana disease can negatively impact income levels and species diversity. We show that under both scenarios farmers have scope to reconfigure their farms and recover farm performance. Specifically, we discuss the benefits of species diversity; increasing agrobiodiversity by adding new crops increases the farm's adaptive capacity and resilience, allowing for much higher revenues, on-farm crop diversity and vitamin A production. The conceptual approach and the method we developed can be applied to assess the local synergies and trade-offs between crop diversity conservation, nutrition, environmental protection and human nutrition that farmers face as a result of global drivers. Our results offer a further understanding of how biodiverse systems respond to regime shifts, which can inform effective policy design. Our method can be also useful to help farmers manage their farms in a way to better meet their complex needs.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Capacity Strengthening; BioRAPP, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The Government of Uganda has implemented programs and policies to improve the agricultural sector’s recent underperformance. Uganda’s two main food security crops, bananas and cassava, have been critically affected by two diseases: Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD). The effectiveness of agronomic and cultural practices to control these diseases has been limited, requiring better alternatives. The Ugandan R&D sector in collaboration with international partners have developed genetically engineered innovations that can control both diseases. To examine the potential benefits to consumers and producers from the adoption of genetically engineered banana and cassava with resistance to BXW and CBSD, we use a set of economic impact assessment methods. These include an economic surplus model implemented via IFPRI’s DREAMpy framework, a real options model and a limited gender assessment. Results from the economic surplus approach suggest that the adoption of both technologies can benefit Uganda. These results were confirmed for the case of bananas and partially for the case of cassava using the real options and the gender assessment performed. Results from this assessment are predicated on Uganda maintaining an enabling environment that will ensure the deployment and use of both innovations. Looking forward, continuing to improve enabling environment for innovation in Uganda will require addressing current R&D, regulatory, technology deployment and product stewardship processes constraints.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP3.4; DCA, EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tuber, and Bananas (RTB), Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) is an important emerging and non-curable infectious plant pathogen in sub-Saharan Africa that can cause up to 100% yield loss, negatively impacting sustainable access to food and income to more than 100 million banana farmers. This study disentangles adopters into partial and full adopters to investigate the factors that are relevant to sustain the adoption process of BXW control practices and quantifies the impact of adopting the practices. Data from a randomly selected sample of 1200 banana farmers in Uganda where the disease is endemic was used. A multinomial logit model was used to determine the factors affecting adoption of control practices and augmented inverse probability weighting was employed to estimate the impacts of adoption on banana productivity and sales. Results show that training a woman farmer and having diverse sources of information about BXW control practices increased adoption of the control practices and reduced the disease incidences. Farmers who adopted all the recommended control practices achieved significantly the highest values of banana production and sales. We conclude that improving information access through farmers’ preferred communication channels, having women-inclusive trainings, and a combination of cultural practices are effective ways for sustaining adoption of the control practices.

Vegetatively propagated crop (VPC) seed tends to remain true to varietal type but is bulky, often carries disease, and is slow to produce. So VPC seed needs to be handled differently than that of other crops, e.g., it tends to be sourced locally, often must be fresh, and it is less often sold on the market. Hence, a framework was adapted to describe and support interventions in such seed systems. The framework was used with 13 case studies to understand VPC seed systems for roots, tubers, and bananas, including differing roles and sometimes conflicting goals of stakeholders, and to identify potential coordination breakdowns when actors fail to develop a shared understanding and vision. In this article, we review those case studies. The framework is a critical tool to (a) document VPC seed systems and build evidence; (b) diagnose and treat coordination breakdown and (c) guide decision-makers and donors on the design of more sustainable seed system interventions for VPCs. The framework can be used to analyze past interventions and will be useful for planning future VPC seed programs.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; PBS, EPTD

PR, IFPRI4, EPTD