1. Parsimonious Waveform-derived Features consisting of Pulse Arrival Time and Heart Rate Variability Predicts the Onset of Septic Shock.
- Author
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Soliman MM, Marshall C, Kimball JP, Choudhary T, Clermont G, Pinsky MR, Buchman TG, Coopersmith CM, Inan OT, and Kamaleswaran R
- Abstract
Sepsis is a major public health emergency and one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. For each hour treatment is delayed, shock-related mortality increases, so early diagnosis and intervention is of utmost importance. However, earlier recognition of shock requires active monitoring, which may be delayed due to subclinical manifestations of the disease at the early phase of onset. Machine learning systems can increase timely detection of shock onset by exploiting complex interactions among continuous physiological waveforms. We use a dataset consisting of high-resolution physiological waveforms from intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital system. We investigate the use of mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), pulse arrival time (PAT), heart rate variability (HRV), and heart rate (HR) for the early prediction of shock onset. Using only five minutes of the aforementioned vital signals from 239 ICU patients, our developed models can accurately predict septic shock onset 6 to 36 hours prior to clinical recognition with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.84 and 0.8 respectively. This work lays foundations for a robust, efficient, accurate and early prediction of septic shock onset which may help clinicians in their decision-making processes. This study introduces machine learning models that provide fast and accurate predictions of septic shock onset times up to 36 hours in advance. BP, PAT and HR dynamics can independently predict septic shock onset with a look-back period of only 5 mins., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest Statement The authors assert that there are no conflicts of interest that might be construed as exerting an influence on the content or interpretation of this work. This includes financial, personal, professional, or any other affiliations that could potentially introduce bias to the research or conclusions presented in this article. Complete disclosure of all financial support for this research and the manuscript’s development is provided within the Acknowledgments section.
- Published
- 2024
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