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The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of tuna in Pacific Island countries' exclusive economic zones have yet to be investigated rigorously and so their persistence and abundance in these areas remain uncertain. Here, we estimate optimal fisheries areas for four tuna species: albacore (Thunnus alalunga), bigeye (Thunnus obesus), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and yellowfin (Thunnus albacares). We consider different climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, within a set of tuna catch records in the exclusive economic zone of Tonga. Using environmental and CPUE datasets, species distribution modelling estimated and predicted these fisheries areas in the current and future climatic scenarios. Our projections indicate an expansion in area and a shift of productive areas to the southern part of this exclusive economic zone of Tonga. This is an indication that future climatic scenarios might be suitable for the species under study; however, changes in trophic layers, ocean currents, and ocean chemistry might alter this finding. The information provided here will be relevant in planning future national actions towards the proper management of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical assumption underlying projections of biodiversity change associated with global warming is that ecological communities comprise balanced mixes of warm-affinity and cool-affinity species which, on average, approximate local environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, here we find that most shallow water marine species occupy broad thermal distributions that are aggregated in either temperate or tropical realms. These distributional trends result in ocean- scale spatial thermal biases, where communities are dominated by species with warmer or cooler affinity than local environmental temperatures. We use community-level thermal deviations from local temperatures as a form of sensitivity to warming, and combine these with projected ocean warming data to predict warming-related loss of species from present-day communities over the next century. Large changes in local species composition appear likely, and proximity to thermal limits, as inferred from present-day species' distributional ranges, outweighs spatial variation in warming rates in contributing to predicted rates of local species loss., The inherent vulnerability of ecological communities to global warming, and therefore the magnitude of associated biodiversity change, is considered a function of exposure and sensitivity to warming, coupled with species' [...]

In line with global targets agreed under the Convention on Biological Diversity, the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) is increasing rapidly, yet socio-economic benefits generated by MPAs remain difficult to predict and under debate (1,2). MPAs often fail to reach their full potential as a consequence of factors such as illegal harvesting, regulations that legally allow detrimental harvesting, or emigration of animals outside boundaries because of continuous habitat or inadequate size of reserve (3-5). Here we show that the conservation benefits of 87 MPAs investigated worldwide increase exponentially with the accumulation of five key features: no take, well enforced, old (> 10 years), large (> 100 [km.sup.2]), and isolated by deep water or sand. Using effective MPAs with four or five key features as an unfished standard, comparisons of underwater survey data from effective MPAs with predictions based on survey data from fished coasts indicate that total fish biomass has declined about two-thirds from historical baselines as a result of fishing. Effective MPAs also had twice as many large (>250 mm total length) fish species per transect, five times more large fish biomass, and fourteen times more shark biomass than fished areas. Most (59%) of the MPAs studied had only one or two key features and were not ecologically distinguishable from fished sites. Our results show that global conservation targets based on area alone will not optimize protection of marine biodiversity. More emphasis is needed on better MPA design, durable management and compliance to ensure that MPAs achieve their desired conservation value., A multitude of socio-economic and biological factors influence the responses of species to protection within MPA networks, adding considerable uncertainty when making specific predictions regarding the conservation benefits of new [...]

Species richness has dominated our view of global biodiversity patterns for centuries (1,2). The dominance of this paradigm is reflected in the focus by ecologists and conservation managers on richness and associated occurrence-based measures for understanding drivers of broadscale diversity patterns and as a biological basis for management (3,4). However, this is changing rapidly, as it is now recognized that not only the number of species but the species present, their phenotypes and the number of individuals of each species are critical in determining the nature and strength of the relationships between species diversity and a range of ecological functions (such as biomass production and nutrient cycling) (5). Integrating these measures should provide a more relevant representation of global biodiversity patterns in terms of ecological functions than that provided by simple species counts. Here we provide comparisons of a traditional global biodiversity distribution measure based on richness with metrics that incorporate species abundances and functional traits. We use data from standardized quantitative surveys of 2,473 marine reef fish species at 1,844 sites, spanning 133 degrees of latitude from all ocean basins, to identify new diversity hotspots in some temperate regions and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. These relate to high diversity of functional traits amongst individuals in the community (calculated using Rao's [Q.sup.6]), and differ from previously reported patterns in functional diversity and richness for terrestrial animals, which emphasize species-rich tropical regions only (7,8). There is a global trend for greater evenness in the number of individuals of each species, across the reef fish species observed at sites ('community evenness'), at higher latitudes. This contributes to the distribution of functional diversity hotspots and contrasts with well-known latitudinal gradients in richness (2,4). Our findings suggest that the contribution of species diversity to a range of ecosystem functions varies over large scales, and imply that in tropical regions, which have higher numbers of species, each species contributes proportionally less to community-level ecological processes on average than species in temperate regions. Metrics of ecological function usefully complement metrics of species diversity in conservation management, including when identifying planning priorities and when tracking changes to biodiversity values., Species do not contribute equally to varied ecosystem processes and delivery of services (9), and thus the sustainability and resilience of these processes depend on aspects of diversity beyond the [...]