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Extreme weather events such as droughts are expected to increase in severity and frequency as the climate changes; it is imperative that land managers be able to monitor associated changes in vegetation health efficiently and across large scales in order to mitigate or prepare for these events. This need motivated deeper study of the die‐off of bishop pine (Pinus muricata) on California's Santa Cruz Island during the 2012–2016 drought. These pines play a keystone role within the island's ecosystem and have experienced two severe droughts and associated mass die‐offs in the past 40 years. In an effort to compare these events, we used meteorological data to track changes in drought severity from 1985 to 2018 coupled with novel methods for forest monitoring to reveal dynamics not detectable by shorter‐duration studies. Leveraging 34 years of 30 m resolution Landsat imagery, we compared vegetation mortality between the two most severe droughts of that time period: 1987–1991 and 2012–2016. We used the slope of decline in the annual median value of three different Vegetation Indices (VIs; NBR, NDMI and NDVI) to compare mortality between the two drought events and to reveal spatial patterns of mortality within the bishop pine forests. Our results indicated that the 2012–2016 drought was the island's harshest in over a century and that it resulted in greater and more widespread mortality of vegetation within bishop pine stands than the 1987–1991 drought. The average VI decline was significantly greater during the 2012–2016 drought than the 1987–1991 drought by a factor of 1.89, 2.09 and 1.84 for NBR, NDMI and NDVI, respectively. Our results aligned with projections of increasing drought severity and associated tree mortality across the region. The temporal monitoring methods developed here can be adapted to study similar landscape scale changes over multiple decades in other forest ecosystems facing similar threats.

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In this study, we used satellite-based remote sensing to predict groundwater levels under groundwater dependent ecosystems across California, USA. Depth to groundwater was modelled for a 35-years period (1985–2019) within all groundwater dependent ecosystems across the state (n = 95,135). Our model was developed within Google Earth Engine using Landsat satellite imagery, climate data, and field-based groundwater data [n = 627 shallow (< 30 m) monitoring wells] as predictors in a Random Forest model. Our findings show that 1) 44% of groundwater dependent ecosystems have experienced a significant long-term (1985–2019) decline in groundwater levels compared to 28% with a significant increase; 2) groundwater level declines have intensified during the most recent two decades, with 39% of groundwater dependent ecosystems experiencing declines in the 2003–2019 period compared to 27% in the 1985–2002 period; and 3) groundwater declines are most prevalent within GDEs existing in areas of the state where sustainable groundwater management is absent. Our results indicate that declining shallow groundwater levels may be adversely impacting California’s groundwater dependent ecosystems. Particularly where groundwater levels have fallen beneath plant roots or streams thereby affecting key life processes, such as forest recruitment/succession, or hydrological processes, such as streamflow that affects aquatic habitat. In the absence of groundwater monitoring well data, our model and findings can be used to help state and local water agencies fill in data gaps of shallow groundwater conditions, evaluate potential effects on GDEs, and improve sustainable groundwater management policy in California.

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67–1.79 billion, or 139–149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46–2.62 billion, or 209–219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes—that we found in an assessment of one conservation project—highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.

Conservation of migratory shorebirds and waterfowl presents unique challenges due to extensive historic loss of wetland habitats, and current reliance on managed landscapes for wintering and migratory passage. We developed a spatially-explicit approach to estimate potential shorebird and waterfowl densities in California by integrating mapped habitat layers and statewide bird survey data with expert-based habitat rankings. Using these density estimates as inputs, we used the Marxan site-selection program to identify priority shorebird and waterfowl areas at the ecoregional level. We identified 3.7 million ha of habitat for shorebirds and waterfowl, of which 1.4 million ha would be required to conserve 50% of wintering populations. To achieve a conservation goal of 75%, more than twice as much habitat (3.1 million ha) would be necessary. Agricultural habitats comprised a substantial portion of priority areas, especially at the 75% level, suggesting that under current management conditions, large areas of agricultural land, much of it formerly wetland, are needed to provide the habitat availability and landscape connectivity required by shorebird and waterfowl populations. These habitats were found to be largely lacking recognized conservation status in California (96% un-conserved), with only slightly higher levels of conservation for priority shorebird and waterfowl areas. Freshwater habitats, including wetlands and ponds, were also found to have low levels of conservation (67% un-conserved), although priority shorebird and waterfowl areas had somewhat higher levels of conservation than the state as a whole. Conserving migratory waterfowl and shorebirds will require a diversity of conservation strategies executed at a variety of scales. Our modeled results are complementary with other approaches and can help prioritize areas for protection, restoration and other actions. Traditional habitat protection strategies such as conservation easements and fee acquisitions may be of limited utility for protecting and managing significant areas of agricultural lands. Instead, conservation strategies focused on incentive-based programs to support wildlife friendly management practices in agricultural settings may have greater utility and conservation effectiveness.

Climate change is altering ecological systems throughout the world. Managing these systems in a way that ignores climate change will likely fail to meet management objectives. The uncertainty in projected climate-change impacts is one of the greatest challenges facing managers attempting to address global change. In order to select successful management strategies, managers need to understand the uncertainty inherent in projected climate impacts and how these uncertainties affect the outcomes of management activities. Perhaps the most important tool for managing ecological systems in the face of climate change is active adaptive management, in which systems are closely monitored and management strategies are altered to address expected and ongoing changes. Here, we discuss the uncertainty inherent in different types of data on potential climate impacts and explore climate projections and potential management responses at three sites in North America. The Central Valley of California, the headwaters of the...

Conservation spending in California, USA exceeds conservation expenditures in many countries. To date, there has been no objective method to assess the efficiency of such spending for achieving species conservation outcomes. We conducted the first such retrospective analysis of conservation spending, examining the distribution of $ 2.8 billion spent on land protection by the state of California and partners from 1990 to 2006. Using a return on investment algorithm with species protection as the sole objective, we describe a "cost-efficient" funding scenario that would have protected four times more distinct species and three times more threatened and endangered species compared to the observed allocation. Differences between the species-diversity spending and the observed spending patterns reflect the myriad funding objectives, beyond protecting species, of the state. Identifying cost-effective conservation strategies are essential given the need to maintain species diversity in the face of global change.

Aim Global conservation assessments recognize the mediterranean biome as a priority for the conservation of the world's biodiversity. To better direct future conservation efforts in the biome, an improved understanding of the location, magnitude and trend of key threats and their relationship with species of conservation importance is needed. Location Mediterranean-climate regions in California-Baja California, Chile, South Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We undertook a systematic, pan-regional assessment of threats in the mediterranean biome including human population density, urban area and agriculture. To realize the full implications of these threats on mediterranean biodiversity, we examined their relationship with species of conservation concern: threatened mammals at the global scale and threatened plants at the subecoregional scale in California, USA. Results Across the biome, population density and urban area increased by 13% and agriculture by 1% between 1990 and 2000. Both population density and urban area were greatest in California-Baja California and least in Australia while, in contrast, agriculture was greatest in Australia and least in California-Baja California. In all regions lowlands were most affected by the threats analysed, with the exception of population density in the Chilean matorral. Threatened species richness had a significant positive correlation with population density at global and subecoregional scales, while threatened species were found to increase with the amount of urban area and decrease as the amount of natural area and unfragmented core area increased. Main conclusions Threats to mediterranean biodiversity have increased from 1990 to 2000, although patterns vary both across and within the five regions. The need for future conservation efforts is further underlined by the positive correlation between species of conservation concern and the increase in population density over the last decade. Challenges to reducing threats extend beyond those analysed to include human–environmental interactions and their synergistic effects, such as urbanization and invasive species and wildfires.

The ranges and abundances of species that depend on freshwater habitats are declining worldwide. Efforts to counteract those trends are often hampered by a lack of information about species distribution and conservation status and are often strongly biased toward a few well-studied groups. We identified the 3,906 vascular plants, macroinvertebrates, and vertebrates native to California, USA, that depend on fresh water for at least one stage of their life history. We evaluated the conservation status for these taxa using existing government and non-governmental organization assessments (e.g., endangered species act, NatureServe), created a spatial database of locality observations or distribution information from ~400 data sources, and mapped patterns of richness, endemism, and vulnerability. Although nearly half of all taxa with conservation status (n = 1,939) are vulnerable to extinction, only 114 (6%) of those vulnerable taxa have a legal mandate for protection in the form of formal inclusion on a state or federal endangered species list. Endemic taxa are at greater risk than non-endemics, with 90% of the 927 endemic taxa vulnerable to extinction. Records with spatial data were available for a total of 2,276 species (61%). The patterns of species richness differ depending on the taxonomic group analyzed, but are similar across taxonomic level. No particular taxonomic group represents an umbrella for all species, but hotspots of high richness for listed species cover 40% of the hotspots for all other species and 58% of the hotspots for vulnerable freshwater species. By mapping freshwater species hotspots we show locations that represent the top priority for conservation action in the state. This study identifies opportunities to fill gaps in the evaluation of conservation status for freshwater taxa in California, to address the lack of occurrence information for nearly 40% of freshwater taxa and nearly 40% of watersheds in the state, and to implement adequate protections for freshwater taxa where they are currently lacking.

Global goals established by the Convention on Biological Diversity stipulate that 10% of the world's ecological regions must be effectively conserved by 2010. To meet that goal for the mediterranean biome, at least 5% more land must be formally protected over the next few years. Although global assessments identify the mediterranean biome as a priority, without biologically meaningful analysis units, finer-resolution data, and corresponding prioritization analysis, future conservation investments could lead to more area being protected without increasing the representation of unique mediterranean ecosystems. We used standardized analysis units and six potential natural vegetation types stratified by 3 elevation zones in a global gap analysis that systematically explored conservation priorities across the mediterranean biome. The highest levels of protection were in Australia, South Africa, and California-Baja California (from 9–11%), and the lowest levels of protection were in Chile and the mediterranean Basin ( 30% conversion and suggest that these assemblages be elevated to high-priority status in future conservation efforts. Resumen: Las metas globales establecidas por la Convencion sobre Diversidad Biologica estipulan que 10% de las regiones ecologicas del mundo deberan estar conservadas efectivamente en 2010. Para alcanzar esa meta en el bioma mediterraneo, por lo menos 5% mas de superficie debe estar protegida formalmente en los proximos anos. Aunque las evaluaciones globales identifican al bioma mediterraneo como una prioridad, sin unidades de analisis biologicamente significativas, datos de resolucion mas fina y los correspondientes analisis de priorizacion, las inversiones futuras en conservacion pudieran conducir a la proteccion de mas superficie sin incrementar la representacion de los ecosistemas mediterraneos unicos. Utilizamos unidades de analisis estandarizadas y seis tipos potenciales de vegetacion natural estratificados en tres zonas de elevacion en un analisis global de disparidad que exploro sistematicamente las prioridades de conservacion en el bioma mediterraneo. Los niveles de proteccion mas altos se localizaron en Australia, Africa del Sur y California-Baja California (de 9–11%) y los niveles de proteccion mas bajos se localizaron en Chile y la Cuenca del mediterraneo ( 30% de conversion y sugerimos que estos ensambles sean elevados a un estatus de alta prioridad en esfuerzos de conservacion en el futuro.

BackgroundConventional wisdom identifies biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation investment because they capture dense concentrations of species. However, density of species does not necessarily imply conservation 'efficiency'. Here we explicitly consider conservation efficiency in terms of species protected per dollar invested.Methodology/principal findingsWe apply a dynamic return on investment approach to a global biome and compare it with three alternate priority setting approaches and a random allocation of funding. After twenty years of acquiring habitat, the return on investment approach protects between 32% and 69% more species compared to the other priority setting approaches. To correct for potential inefficiencies of protecting the same species multiple times we account for the complementarity of species, protecting up to three times more distinct vertebrate species than alternate approaches.Conclusions/significanceIncorporating costs in a return on investment framework expands priorities to include areas not traditionally highlighted as priorities based on conventional irreplaceability and vulnerability approaches.

Conservation priority-setting schemes have not yet combined geographic priorities with a framework that can guide the allocation of funds among alternate conservation actions that address specific threats. We develop such a framework, and apply it to 17 of the world's 39 Mediterranean ecoregions. This framework offers an improvement over approaches that only focus on land purchase or species richness and do not account for threats. We discover that one could protect many more plant and vertebrate species by investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats, such as invasive species control, land acquisition, and off-reserve management, than by relying solely on acquiring land for protected areas. Applying this new framework will ensure investment in actions that provide the most cost-effective outcomes for biodiversity conservation. This will help to minimise the misallocation of scarce conservation resources., Author Summary Given limited funds for biodiversity conservation, we need to carefully prioritise where funds are spent. Various schemes have been developed to set priorities for conservation spending among different countries and regions. However, there is no framework for guiding the allocation of funds among alternative conservation actions that address specific threats. Here, we develop such a framework, and apply it to 17 of the world's 39 Mediterranean-climate ecoregions. We discover that one could protect many more plant and vertebrate species by investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats, such as invasive species control and fire management, rather than by relying solely on acquiring land for protected areas. Applying this new framework will ensure investment in actions that provide the most cost-effective outcomes for biodiversity conservation., A new framework applied to 17 of the world's Mediterranean ecoregions reveals that investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats will protect more species than just acquiring land for protected areas.

Flooding is the most common and damaging of all natural disasters in the United States, and was a factor in almost all declared disasters in U.S. history. Direct flood losses in the U.S. in 2011 totaled $8.41 billion and flood damage has also been on the rise globally over the past century. The National Flood Insurance Program paid out more than $38 billion in claims since its inception in 1968, more than a third of which has gone to the one percent of policies that experienced multiple losses and are classified as “repetitive loss.” During the same period, the loss of coastal wetlands and other natural habitat has continued, and funds for conservation and restoration of these habitats are very limited. This study demonstrates that flood losses could be mitigated through action that meets both flood risk reduction and conservation objectives. We found that there are at least 11,243km2 of land in coastal California, which is both flood-prone and has natural resource conservation value, and where a property/structure buyout and habitat restoration project could meet multiple objectives. For example, our results show that in Sonoma County, the extent of land that meets these criteria is 564km2. Further, we explore flood mitigation grant programs that can be a significant source of funds to such projects. We demonstrate that government funded buyouts followed by restoration of targeted lands can support social, environmental, and economic objectives: reduction of flood exposure, restoration of natural resources, and efficient use of limited governmental funds.

Climate change will increase the vulnerability of species across the globe to population loss and extinction. In order to develop conservation strategies to facilitate adaptation to this change, managers must understand the vulnerability of the habitats and species they are trying to manage. For most biodiversity managers, conducting vulnerability assessments for all of the species they manage would be prohibitively costly, time consuming, and potentially misleading since some data required does not yet exist. We present a rapid and cost-effective method to estimate the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change impacts across broad areas using landscape-scale indicators. While this method does not replace species-specific vulnerability assessments, it allows biodiversity managers to focus analysis on the species likely to be most vulnerable and identify the categories of conservation strategies for implementation to reduce biodiversity's vulnerability to climate change. We applied this method to California, USA to map the portions of the state where biodiversity managers should focus on minimizing current threats to biodiversity (9%), reducing constraints to adaptation (28%), reducing exposure to climatic changes (24%), and implementing all three (9%). In 18% of the state, estimated vulnerability is low so continuing current strategies and monitoring for changes is likely sufficient, while in 12% of the state, vulnerability is so high that biodiversity managers may have to reassess current conservation goals. In combination with species-specific vulnerability assessments or alone, mapping vulnerability based on landscape-scale indicators will allow managers to take an essential step toward implementing conservation strategies to help imperiled species adapt to climate change.

Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will substantially alter or eliminate certain ecosystem services in the future. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate, ecosystem service production, and the economy. This study examines the impact of climate change on the terrestrial distribution and the subsequent production and value of two key ecosystem services in California: (1) carbon sequestration and (2) natural (i.e. non- irrigated) forage production for livestock. Under various scenarios of future climate change