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Hydrogen from water electrolysis will play a key role in the transition to a decarbonized energy system. For green hydrogen to reach production on mass scales, the CAPEX or $/kW cost of hydrogen production, needs to fall by as large as a factor of 6. In this analysis, multiple cost projections were analyzed from academia, industry, and government examples of PEM hydrogen production to determine historical learning rates. PEM electrolyzers were chosen specifically for this study given their emerging cost competitiveness and efficiency improvement potential and industry support when compared to competing hydrogen electrolyzer types. The learning rates are applied to current costs and projected under multiple deployment scenarios with the purpose of predicting hydrogen costs through the year 2050. Out of 45 scenarios, the lower bound scenario is 16.2 magnitudes less CAPEX for PEM electrolyzers in 2050 than the starting scenario CAPEX in 2022. On the other hand, the results of the model find the upper bound scenario for PEM electrolyzer CAPEX in 2050 to be 2.4 magnitudes less than the starting scenario CAPEX in 2022. Regardless of scenario, there is evidence to suggest that the greatest price decreases will take place between 2022 and 2030. For the most aggressive scenarios to become viable possibilities, there will need to be policies supporting hydrogen technologies, not only in terms of research and development, but also deployment for practical use cases.

This dissertation presents a set of analytical tools developed to investigate the energy system transition using a systems approach. The cases explored range from Kosovo, a country on the verge of new electricity supply investments, and future energy pathways to an analytical investigation of innovation in battery storage systems that could unlock the environmental and health benefits of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind technologies. The analytical tools compare existing metrics such as levelized cost of electricity with new metrics such as a two-factor learning curve of deployment and innovation and trace metal content of coal per final kWh of electricity delivered and energy return on investment of distributed energy systems.Chapter 1 investigates the case of Kosovo and introduces an analytic framework to analyze electricity costs and environmental impacts of future electricity options. The scheduled decommissioning of the Kosovo A coal-fired power plant provides an opportunity to investigate the changing cost of alternative energy options available in Kosovo for new energy infrastructure. I find that a range of investment pathways from international financial institutions and donor groups could meet the same projected electricity demand at a lower cost than building a new 600 MW coal fired power plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand in Kosovo.Chapter 2 utilizes the analytic framework developed to estimate the cost of future electricity pathways and uses green chemistry and public health risk assessment to estimate trace metal content of coal and investigate the air-pollution-related-health risks of lignite coal in Kosovo. By utilizing ICP-MS, I sample lignite coal for trace metal content and develop a risk model to assess future health impacts of air pollution from the electricity options explored in Chapter 1. I find significant trace metal content normalized per kWh of final electricity delivered. I estimate that Kosovo could avoid 2300 premature deaths by 2030 when introducing energy efficiency and solar PV backed up by natural gas. The framework highlights that often multi-lateral development banks do not account for all health risks before guaranteeing loans on new electricity projects. The interest in finding sustainable options to balance the load of intermittent renewable energy options in Kosovo motivates further analysis to understand how battery storage technologies have developed over time in terms of performance and cost.Chapter 3 examines the dramatically falling cost of battery storage options. I develop a two- factor technological learning curve model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. I find and chart a viable path to dispatchable $1/W solar with $100/kWh battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil fuel-based electricity options. I highlight the co-evolutionary nature of the cost reductions of battery storage technologies and suggest the relative importance of sustained investment and integration of R&D and deployment to develop innovative low-carbon combined solar, storage, and wind systems.Chapter 4 highlights the changing energy return on investment of energy technologies by investigating a case in Thailand where distributed solar, mini-hydro, and battery storage mini- grids are becoming an attractive investment and serve as core options to meet growing demand for electricity. I compare the net energy return on investment (EROI) of mini-hydropower, solar PV, and battery storage. This study represents a direct application of the opportunities for battery storage technologies to enable cost-competitive mini-grids in Thailand and around the world.The dissertation highlights different plans, designs, and future management of cost-effective, sustainable, and healthy electricity systems for a clean energy transition worldwide. The analytical tools presented combine to integrate traditional economic, environmental, and health metrics into energy systems planning and innovation. By integrating these interconnected systems, it becomes possible to enable cleaner and more sustainable energy transitions.

Atmospheric aerosols have well documented detrimental effects on human health, ecosystems and air quality and are the key uncertainty in assessing the anthropogenic influence on climate change. Particularly during the cold weather season, urban centers in countries of the Western Balkans region such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are experiencing some of the globally poorest air quality due to the extensive use of solid fuels and old vehicle fleet. The city of Sarajevo is the capital of BiH and is situated in Southeastern Europe within a plain surrounded by mountains. In the winter months (domestic heating season), topography and meteorology cause the pollutants to be trapped within the city plain. Recent analysis with the US EPA BenMAP model applied to BiH found that an annual decrease of 50% in fine aerosol would save 4760+ lives and costs of $2.3B annually (Žero et al., 2022). Countries of the Western Balkans lack state‐of‐ the‐ art atmospheric sciences research despite high levels of ambient pollution and position within the EU borders, which makes it imperative to understand the emission sources, processing and the adverse health effects of their atmospheric aerosol pollution. This presentation will highlight the results of the SAFICA 2018 project, the first Sarajevo, BiH project aiming to yield crucial, not previously available information about aerosol emission sources and atmospheric transformations through combination of online field (black carbon and particle number and size distribution) and offline laboratory (physicochemical characterization of daily PM10 filter samples) measurements. Laboratory analyses of PM10 samples determined aerosols’ bulk chemical composition, selected elements (Huremović et al., 2020 ; Žero et al., 2022) and molecular species (Pehnec et al., 2020). Aerosol chemical composition determined by aerosol mass spectrometry was further analyzed by Positive Matrix Factorization to separate organic aerosol (OA) into subtypes characteristic for their sources and atmospheric processes. Aerosol oxidative potential (OP) was also determined to evaluate the ability of SAFICA aerosols to generate reactive oxygen species. Main SAFICA results show that ~3/4 of aerosol mass is carbonaceous (OA + black carbon) and ~2/3 of total carbon (TC) mass is from non‐fossil sources (Figure 1). Aerosol has high loadings of black carbon and toxic species, indicating strong and diverse combustion sources and likely a major public health danger. More work is needed to estimate the contributions of different aerosol sources and species to total aerosol OP. Finally, this presentation will show how SAFICA knowledge gaps will be overcome in a future project, planned to take place during 2022‐2023, entitled Sarajevo Aerosol Experiment: Composition, Sources and Health Effects of Atmospheric Aerosol (SAAERO). We thank Federal Hydrometeorological Institute of BiH, Magee Scientific/Aerosol and TSI for support. We acknowledge the contribution of the COST Action CA16109 COLOSSAL and SEE Change Net. KDž and ASHP acknowledge the grant by the Swiss NSF (Scientific Exchanges IZSEZ0_189495), KDž, GM and ASHP European Commission funding of SAAERO project (EU H2020 MSCA-IF 2020 grant # 101028909), GM the Slovenian Science foundation program P1-0385, and SF by the Croatian Science Foundation (BiREADI IP- 2018-01-3105).