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Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and individual data. We use a Bayesian approach and extend a multinomial-Dirichlet model proposed in the ecological inference literature. Our new hybrid model has been implemented in the R-package eiwild (= Ecological Inference with individual-level data). Based on extensive simulations, we are able to show that our new estimator exhibits a very good estimation performance in many realistic scenarios. Application case is the voter transition between the Bavarian Regional election and the German federal elections 2013 in the Metropolitan City of Munich. Our approach is also applicable to other areas of electoral research, market research, and epidemiology.

The article presents the discussion on highly problematic reporting of election polls. Topics include telephone interviews, classical face-to-face interviews, and online surveys; established methods including model-based forecasts taking economic developments or expert knowledge into account; and recommending multiple types of visualizations and using the different focal points as an active element of communication.

It is increasingly required that non-human animals in laboratories are provided with adequate enrichment to promote the welfare of the animals. In a previous publication we showed that laboratory dogs intensively used the horn of calf hooves as chewing objects. In this report, we describe the effect of calf horn on selected behaviors of 62 laboratory dogs (60 beagles, two Foxhound crossbreds) in three research facilities (A, B, C). In addition, we assessed the dogs' tooth condition and fecal consistency. The selected behaviors: "aggressive behavior," "mounting," "tussle," "coprophagy," "manipulation" of the equipment and "abnormal behavior" did not change. In facilities A and C, the dogs receiving horn showed a significant reduction in staying near the fence of the kennel and observing the outside area. By analyzing the overall behavior in facility B, we found that "exploration" increased with horn, whereas "inactivity," "social play" and "other social behavior" decreased. In conclusion, the results indicate that horn of calf hooves offers alternative stimulation. We found positive effects on tartar/plaque reduction and fecal consistency which should be confirmed in further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and individual data. We use a Bayesian approach and extend a multinomial-Dirichlet model proposed in the ecological inference literature. Our new hybrid model has been implemented in the R-package eiwild (= Ecological Inference with individual-level data). Based on extensive simulations, we are able to show that our new estimator exhibits a very good estimation performance in many realistic scenarios. Application case is the voter transition between the Bavarian Regional election and the German federal elections 2013 in the Metropolitan City of Munich. Our approach is also applicable to other areas of electoral research, market research, and epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Vaccination is the most important measure for prevention of feline infectious diseases. Cat owner compliance with vaccination recommendations has been investigated in the UK but not in other European countries. The aim of the present study was to determine cat owners' attitudes towards vaccination in cats in Germany, to identify factors that are associated with the vaccination status of their cats and to compare the results with those of the UK survey. Methods The survey was conducted using an online questionnaire and was aimed at respondents throughout Germany. Respondents under 16 years of age, cats that were less than 9 weeks old and veterinarians were excluded. A total of 920 questionnaires were evaluated, and information about cats and respondents was assessed with respect to the current vaccination status of the cats using a linear logistic regression model. Results The majority of cats (77.9%; n = 717) were vaccinated according to current guidelines; only 5.4% (n = 50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.00–9.00) of cats had never received a vaccine. Having visited a cattery, a cat show or travelled abroad in the past 12 months (n = 96/773; odds ratio [OR] 6.95; 95% CI 1.65–52.19) had the highest positive impact on the vaccination status of cats. In addition, detailed veterinary advice about vaccination had a positive impact (n = 275/773; OR 2.09; 95% CI 0.67–6.25) on the attitude of owners towards vaccinating their cats. Conclusions and relevance A history of travelling abroad or visiting cat shows or a cattery, and thus regulatory requirements, had the greatest positive impact on the current vaccination status of the cats. Veterinary consultation on preventive measures, including vaccination, is crucial for protecting the cat population against infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is no agreement in current publications regarding the reliability of serum concentrations of natriuretic peptides ( NPs) to detect dogs with subclinical myxomatous mitral valve disease ( MMVD) and to differentiate between asymptomatic stages. Objectives We sought to compare N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT-pro BNP) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide 31-67 (pro ANP) concentrations between various stages of canine MMVD and to investigate the influence of age, weight, and sex. Methods In this prospective study, dogs were classified in different disease stages using the modified Canine Heart failure International Expert Forum ( CHIEF) system. Serum NP concentrations were compared between groups. Results A total of 559 samples from 116 healthy dogs and 236 dogs with MMVD were analyzed. Using cut-off values (1207 pmol/L for NT-proBNP, 1578 fmol/mL for proANP), dogs with MMVD with and without congestive heart failure (CHF) could be differentiated with a sensitivity of 83% for both and specificities of 85% and 86%, respectively. Dogs staged in CHIEF B1 and B2 could not be distinguished based on NP concentrations due to wide variation within the groups. Intact females (means 598 pmol/L and 1036 fmol/mL, respectively) had significantly higher values of both NPs than intact males (315 pmol/L and 836 fmol/mL). Conclusions NPs in canine MMVD are useful to discriminate between asymptomatic dogs and dogs with CHF. Due to a large overlap of NP-concentrations between the groups, NPs do not seem to be useful to differentiate between dogs in stages B1 and B2. Interpretation of NT-pro BNP and pro ANP values should include consideration of sex-specific differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Four parameters of a decision tree for Selective Dry Cow Treatment (SDCT), examined in a previous study, were analyzed regarding their efficacy in detecting cows for dry cow treatment (DCT, use of intramammary antimicrobials). This study set out to review wether all parameters (somatic cell count [SCC≥ 200 000 SC/ml 3 months' milk yield recordings prior dry off (DO)], clinical mastitis history during lactation [≥1 CM], culturing [14d prior DO, detection of major pathogens] and California-Mastitis-Test [CMT, > rate 1/+ at DO]) are necessary for accurate decision making, whether there are possible alternatives to replace culturing, and whether a simplified model could replace the decision tree., Material and Methods: Records of 18 Bavarian dairy farms from June 2015 to August 2017 were processed. Data analysis was carried out by means of descriptive statistics, as well as employing a binary cost sensitive classification tree and logit-models. For statistical analyses the outcomes of the full 4-parameter decision tree were taken as ground truth., Results: 848 drying off procedures in 739 dairy cows (C DO ) were included. SCC and CMT selected 88.1%, in combination with CM 95.6% of the cows that received DCT (n=494). Without culturing, 22 (4.4%) with major pathogens (8x Staphylococcus [ S. ] aureus ) infected C DO would have been misclassified as not needing DCT. The average of geometric mean SCC (within 100 d prior DO) for C DO with negative results in culturing was<100 000 SC/ml milk, 100 000-150 000 SC/ml for C DO infected with minor pathogens, and ≥ 150 000 SC/ml for C DO infected with major pathogens (excluding S.aureus ). Using SCC during lactation (at least 1x > 200 000 SC/ml) and positive CMT to select C DO for DCT, contrary to the decision tree, 37 C DO (4.4%) would have been treated "incorrectly without" and 43 C DO (5.1%) "unnecessarily with" DCT. Modifications were identified, such as SCC<131 000 SC/ml within 100 d prior to DO for detecting C DO with no growth or minor pathogens in culturing. The best model for grading C DO for or against DCT (C DO without CM and SCC<200 000 SC/ml [last 3 months prior DO]) had metrics of AUC=0.74, Accuracy=0.778, balanced Accuracy=0.63, Sensitivity=0.92 and Specificity=0.33., Conclusions: Combining the decision tree's parameters SCC, CMT and CM renders suitable selection criteria under the conditions of this study. When omitting culturing, lower thresholds for SCC should be considered for each farm individually to select C DO for DCT. Nonetheless, the most accurate model could not replace the full decision tree., Competing Interests: Es besteht kein Interessenkonflikt., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)