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3. Exploratory Precipitation Metrics: Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Process-Oriented, and Phenomena-Based

Author

Leung, L Ruby, Boos, William R, Catto, Jennifer L, A. DeMott, Charlotte, Martin, Gill M, Neelin, J David, O’Brien, Travis A, Xie, Shaocheng, Feng, Zhe, Klingaman, Nicholas P, Kuo, Yi-Hung, Lee, Robert W, Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian, Vishnu, S, Priestley, Matthew DK, Tao, Cheng, and Zhou, Yang

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Bioengineering, Climate Action, Precipitation, Climate models, Diagnostics, Model evaluation, performance, Oceanography, Geomatic Engineering, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Atmospheric sciences, Climate change science
Abstract

Precipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather and climate modeling. Limitations in modeling precipitation underscore the need for diagnostics and metrics to evaluate precipitation in simulations and predictions. While routine use of basic metrics is important for documenting model skill, more sophisticated diagnostics and metrics aimed at connecting model biases to their sources and revealing precipitation characteristics relevant to how model precipitation is used are critical for improving models and their uses. This paper illustrates examples of exploratory diagnostics and metrics including 1) spatiotemporal characteristics metrics such as diurnal variability, probability of extremes, duration of dry spells, spectral characteristics, and spatiotemporal coherence of precipitation; 2) process-oriented metrics based on the rainfall–moisture coupling and temperature–water vapor environments of precipitation; and 3) phenomena-based metrics focusing on precipitation associated with weather phenomena including low pressure systems, mesoscale convective systems, frontal systems, and atmospheric rivers. Together, these diagnostics and metrics delineate the multifaceted and multiscale nature of precipitation, its relations with the environments, and its generation mechanisms. The metrics are applied to historical simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models exhibit diverse skill as measured by the suite of metrics, with very few models consistently ranked as top or bottom performers compared to other models in multiple metrics. Analysis of model skill across metrics and models suggests possible relationships among subsets of metrics, motivating the need for more systematic analysis to understand model biases for informing model development.

Published
2022

5. Coupled climate response to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a multi-model multi-resolution ensemble

Author

Hodson, Daniel L. R., Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine, Cassou, Christophe, Davini, Paolo, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Lohmann, Katja, Lopez-Parages, Jorge, Martín-Rey, Marta, Moine, Marie-Pierre, Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Putrasahan, Dian A., Roberts, Christopher D., Robson, Jon, Ruprich-Robert, Yohan, Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia, Seddon, Jon, and Senan, Retish

Published
2022
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11. Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction : Filling the Weather–Climate Gap

Author

Merryfield, William J., Baehr, Johanna, Batté, Lauriane, Becker, Emily J., Butler, Amy H., Coelho, Caio A. S., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Dirmeyer, Paul A., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Domeisen, Daniela I. V., Ferranti, Laura, Ilynia, Tatiana, Kumar, Arun, Müller, Wolfgang A., Rixen, Michel, Robertson, Andrew W., Smith, Doug M., Takaya, Yuhei, Tuma, Matthias, Vitart, Frederic, White, Christopher J., Alvarez, Mariano S., Ardilouze, Constantin, Attard, Hannah, Baggett, Cory, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Beraki, Asmerom F., Bhattacharjee, Partha S., Bilbao, Roberto, de Andrade, Felipe M., DeFlorio, Michael J., Díaz, Leandro B., Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar, Fragkoulidis, Georgios, Grainger, Sam, Green, Benjamin W., Hell, Momme C., Infanti, Johnna M., Isensee, Katharina, Kataoka, Takahito, Kirtman, Ben P., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Lee, June-Yi, Mayer, Kirsten, McKay, Roseanna, Mecking, Jennifer V., Miller, Douglas E., Neddermann, Nele, Ng, Ching Ho Justin, Ossó, Albert, Pankatz, Klaus, Peatman, Simon, Pegion, Kathy, Perlwitz, Judith, Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina, Reintges, Annika, Renkl, Christoph, Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan, Spring, Aaron, Stan, Cristiana, Sun, Y. Qiang, Tozer, Carly R., Vigaud, Nicolas, Woolnough, Steven, and Yeager, Stephen

Published
2020

12. Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

Author

Merryfield, William J., Baehr, Johanna, Batté, Lauriane, Becker, Emily J., Butler, Amy H., Coelho, Caio A. S., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Dirmeyer, Paul A., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Domeisen, Daniela I. V., Ferranti, Laura, Ilynia, Tatiana, Kumar, Arun, Müller, Wolfgang A., Rixen, Michel, Robertson, Andrew W., Smith, Doug M., Takaya, Yuhei, Tuma, Matthias, Vitart, Frederic, White, Christopher J., Alvarez, Mariano S., Ardilouze, Constantin, Attard, Hannah, Baggett, Cory, Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Beraki, Asmerom F., Bhattacharjee, Partha S., Bilbao, Roberto, de Andrade, Felipe M., DeFlorio, Michael J., Díaz, Leandro B., Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar, Fragkoulidis, Georgios, Grainger, Sam, Green, Benjamin W., Hell, Momme C., Infanti, Johnna M., Isensee, Katharina, Kataoka, Takahito, Kirtman, Ben P., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Lee, June-Yi, Mayer, Kirsten, McKay, Roseanna, Mecking, Jennifer V., Miller, Douglas E., Neddermann, Nele, Ng, Ching Ho Justin, Ossó, Albert, Pankatz, Klaus, Peatman, Simon, Pegion, Kathy, Perlwitz, Judith, Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina, Reintges, Annika, Renkl, Christoph, Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan, Spring, Aaron, Stan, Cristiana, Sun, Y. Qiang, Tozer, Carly R., Vigaud, Nicolas, Woolnough, Steven, and Yeager, Stephen

Published
2020

14. Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

Author

Mitchell, Daniel, AchutaRao, Krishna, Allen, Myles, Bethke, Ingo, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Forster, Piers M, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gillett, Nathan, Haustein, Karsten, Ingram, William, Iversen, Trond, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Klingaman, Nicholas, Massey, Neil, Fischer, Erich, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Scinocca, John, Seland, Øyvind, Shiogama, Hideo, Shuckburgh, Emily, Sparrow, Sarah, Stone, Dáithí, Uhe, Peter, Wallom, David, Wehner, Michael, and Zaaboul, Rashyd

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth sciences
Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006-2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.

Published
2017

15. Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response

Author

Emerton, Rebecca, Cloke, Hannah, Ficchi, Andrea, Hawker, Laurence, de Wit, Sara, Speight, Linda, Prudhomme, Christel, Rundell, Philip, West, Rosalind, Neal, Jeffrey, Cuna, Joaquim, Harrigan, Shaun, Titley, Helen, Magnusson, Linus, Pappenberger, Florian, Klingaman, Nicholas, and Stephens, Elisabeth

Published
2020
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24. Correction to: Coupled climate response to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a multi-model multi-resolution ensemble

Author

Hodson, Daniel L. R., Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine, Cassou, Christophe, Davini, Paolo, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Lohmann, Katja, Lopez-Parages, Jorge, Martín-Rey, Marta, Moine, Marie-Pierre, Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Putrasahan, Dian A., Roberts, Christopher D., Robson, Jon, Ruprich-Robert, Yohan, Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia, Seddon, Jon, and Senan, Retish

Published
2022
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26. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

Author

Xavier, Prince K, Petch, Jon C, Klingaman, Nicholas P, Woolnough, Steve J, Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E, Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M, Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S, Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, and Wang, Hailan

Subjects
diabatic processes, Madden-Julian Oscillation, modeling, convection, Year of Tropical convection, uncertainties, Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Abstract

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Published
2015

32. The intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian summer monsoon : air-sea interactions and the potential for predictability

Author

Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas

Subjects
551.5184
Abstract

Summer monsoon rainfall accounts for at least 80% of the annual-total precipitation in many Indian states. Intraseasonal variations (ISV) in rainfall produce floods and droughts that can devastate agriculture. ISVs are dominated by a 30-50 day northward-propagating oscillation (NPISO) between the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEqIO) and India. This thesis evaluates the hypothesis that atmosphere-ocean interactions are critical to the NPISO's period, intensity, and propagation. Two simple NPISO indices are created from lag correlations in outgoing longwave radiation between the oscillation's two poles. The index in which India leads the EEqIO better captures the NPISO, implying that convection in the EEqIO cannot predict Indian rainfall. An idealized NPISO lifecycle suggests that air-sea interactions occur via atmospheric thermodynamic forcing and a feedback from SSTs on low-level atmospheric stability.

Published
2008

35. On the influence of the Bay of Bengal's sea surface temperature gradients on rainfall of the South Asian monsoon

Author

Sheehan, Peter M. F., Matthews, Adrian J., Webber, Benjamin G. M., Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra, Klingaman, Nicholas M., and Vinayachandran, P. N.

Abstract

The southwest monsoon delivers over 70% of India's annual rainfall and is crucial to the success of agriculture across much of South Asia. Monsoon precipitation is known to be sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Here, we use a configuration of the Unified Model of the UK Met Office coupled to an ocean mixed layer model to investigate the role of upper-ocean features in the BoB on southwest monsoon precipitation. We focus on the pronounced zonal and meridional SST gradients characteristic of the BoB; the zonal gradient in particular has an as-yet unknown effect on monsoon rainfall. We find that the zonal SST gradient is responsible for a 50% decrease in in rainfall over the southern BoB (approximately 5 mm day-1), and a 50% increase in rainfall over Bangladesh and northern India (approximately 1 mm day-1). This increase is remotely forced by a strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation. The meridional SST gradient acts to decrease precipitation over the BoB itself, similarly to the zonal SST gradient, but does not have comparable effects over land. The impacts of barrier layers and high-salinity sub-surface water are also investigated, but neither has significant effects on monsoon precipitation in this model; the influence of barrier layers on precipitation is felt in the months after the southwest monsoon. Models should accurately represent oceanic processes that directly influence BoB SST, such as the BoB cold pool, in order to faithfully represent monsoon rainfall.

Published
2023

40. Evaluation of multi-season convection permitting atmosphere - mixed layer ocean simulations of the Maritime Continent.

Author

Howard, Emma, Woolnough, Steven, Klingaman, Nicholas, Shipley, Daniel, Sanchez, Claudio, Peatman, Simon C., Birch, Cathryn E., and Matthews, Adrian J.

Subjects
MIXING height (Atmospheric chemistry), OCEAN temperature, OCEAN, ATMOSPHERIC models, ATMOSPHERE, MARINE west coast climate, MARITIME boundaries
Abstract

A multi-season convection permitting regional climate simulation of the Maritime Continent using the Met Office Unified Model with 2.2-km grid spacing is presented and evaluated. The simulations pioneer the use of atmosphere-ocean coupling with the multi-column K profile parametrisation (KPP) mixed layer ocean model in atmospheric convection permitting climate simulations. Comparisons are made against a convection parametrised simulation in which it is nested, and which in turn derives boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis. This paper describes the configuration, performance of the mean state and variability of the two simulations compared against observational datasets. The models both have minor sea surface temperature (SST) and wet precipitation biases. The diurnal cycle, representation of equatorial waves and relationship between SST and precipitation are all improved in the convection permitting model compared to the convection parametrised model. The MJO is present in both models with a faster than observed propagation speed. However, it is unclear whether fidelity of the MJO simulation is inherent to the model or whether it predominantly arises from the forcing at the boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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44. The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at kilometre scale

Author

Castillo, Juan Manuel, primary, Lewis, Huw W., additional, Mishra, Akhilesh, additional, Mitra, Ashis, additional, Polton, Jeff, additional, Brereton, Ashley, additional, Saulter, Andrew, additional, Arnold, Alex, additional, Berthou, Segolene, additional, Clark, Douglas, additional, Crook, Julia, additional, Das, Ananda, additional, Edwards, John, additional, Feng, Xiangbo, additional, Gupta, Ankur, additional, Joseph, Sudheer, additional, Klingaman, Nicholas, additional, Momin, Imranali, additional, Pequignet, Christine, additional, Sanchez, Claudio, additional, Saxby, Jennifer, additional, and Valdivieso da Costa, Maria, additional

Published
2022
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46. A perspective for advancing climate prediction services in\ud Brazil

Author

Coelho, Caio A. S., Baker, Jessica C. A., Spracklen, Dominick V., Kubota, Paulo Y., de Souza, Dayana C., Guimarães, Bruno S., Figueroa, Silvio N., Bonatti, J. P., Sampaio, G., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Chevuturi, Amulya, Woolnough, Steven J., Hart, Neil, Zilli, Marcia, and Jones, C. D.

Abstract

The Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP-Brazil) project provides Brazil and UK partners the opportunity to address important challenges faced by the climate modeling community, including the need to develop subseasonal and seasonal prediction and climate projection services. This paper provides an overview of the climate modeling and prediction research conducted through CSSP-Brazil within the context of a framework to advance climate prediction services in Brazil that includes a research-to-services (R2S) and a services-to-research (S2R) feedback pathway. The paper also highlights plans to advance scientific understanding and capability to produce beneficial climate knowledge and new products to improve climate prediction services to support decisions in various industries in Brazil. Policy-relevant outcomes from climate modeling and prediction exercises illustrated in this paper include supporting stakeholders with climate information provided from weeks to months ahead for (a) improving water management strategies for human consumption, navigation, and agricultural and electricity production; (b) defining crop variety and calendars for food production; and (c) diversifying energy production with alternatives to hydropower.

Published
2022

49. Supplementary material to "The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at km-scale"

Author

Castillo, Juan Manuel, primary, Lewis, Huw, additional, Mishra, Akhilesh, additional, Mitra, Ashis, additional, Polton, Jeff, additional, Brereton, Ashley, additional, Saulter, Andrew, additional, Arnold, Alex, additional, Berthou, Segolene, additional, Clark, Douglas, additional, Crook, Julia, additional, Das, Ananda, additional, Edwards, John, additional, Feng, Xiangbo, additional, Gupta, Ankur, additional, Joseph, Sudheer, additional, Klingaman, Nicholas, additional, Momin, Imranali, additional, Pequignet, Christine, additional, Sanchez, Claudio, additional, Saxby, Jennifer, additional, and Valdivieso da Costa, Maria, additional

Published
2022
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