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People tend to give subadditive probability judgments when asked to assess each in a set of three or more exclusive hypotheses. The degree of subadditivity in such judgments is determined in large part by the evidence upon which the judgments are based, but the characteristics of the evidence that influence subadditivity have yet to be fully specified. In the present experiments, this issue was addressed using a classification learning task, in which the relationship between the evidence and the hypotheses under consideration can be controlled experimentally. Two potential evidential influences on subadditivity--cue conflict and cue frequency--are distinguished and tested in three experiments. The results indicate that (a) people's probability judgments are systematically subadditive--in violation of standard probability theory--even when the judgments are based on cues learned within the experimental context, contrary to the predictions of "ecological" theories of human judgment which attribute such biases to nonrepresentative item selection; and (b) cue conflict has a reliable influence on the degree of subadditivity exhibited in probability judgments.

Recent evidence suggests that people are highly efficient at detecting conflicting outputs produced by competing intuitive and analytic reasoning processes. Specifically, De Neys and Glumicic (2008) demonstrated that participants reason longer about problems that are characterized by conflict (as opposed to agreement) between stereotypical personality descriptions and base-rate probabilities of group membership. However, this finding comes from problems involving probabilities much more extreme than those used in traditional studies of base-rate neglect. To test the degree to which these findings depend on such extreme probabilities, we varied base-rate probabilities over five experiments and compared participants' response time for conflict problems with non-conflict problems. Longer response times for stereotypical responses to conflict versus non-conflict problems were found only in the presence of extreme probabilities. Our results suggest that humans may not be consistently efficient at detecting conflicts during reasoning. (Contains 2 tables.)

Gaissmaier and Schooler (2008) [Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J. (2008). "The smart potential behind probability matching." "Cognition, 109," 416-422] argue that probability matching, which has traditionally been viewed as a decision making error, may instead reflect an adaptive response to environments in which outcomes potentially follow predictable patterns. In choices involving monetary stakes, we find that probability matching persists even when it is not possible to identify or exploit outcome patterns and that many "probability matchers" rate an alternative strategy (maximizing) as superior when it is described to them. Probability matching appears to reflect a mistaken intuition that can be, but often is not, overridden by deliberate consideration of alternative choice strategies. (Contains 1 figure.)

Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability is consistently chosen, rather than a probabilistic strategy, in which an outcome is chosen with a probability equal to its judged probability. Extended practice in the learning environment did not affect choice strategy selection, contrary to reports from previous studies, results of which may instead be attributable to changes with practice in the variability and extremity of the perceived probabilities on which the choices were based.

A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.

A new theory of subjective probability is presented. According to this theory, different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. Experimental evidence supporting this theory is summarized, demonstrating that the theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. (SLD)

Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability marchers are victims of 'underthinking' rather than 'overthinking': They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind. doi: 10.3758/MC.38.6.667

This article tests whether individual differences in inferring one trait from another (intertrait inferences) can be linked to lay beliefs about the malleability of personality (person theories). It finds that holding the belief that personality is malleable (incremental theory) rather than fixed (entity theory) at the time of inferences is associated with less extreme inferences involving semantically related (but not unrelated) traits. Although person theories have been assumed to be stable over time, existing short-term test-retest coefficients do not capture their instability over a longer period. These results can illuminate interrater discrepancies in assessments of personality pathology and job performance, enrich understanding of such phenomena as stereotyping and impression formation, refine the interpretation of past research involving person theories, and inform research planning. Keywords: person theories; temporal stability; intertrait inferences; impression; personality

Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability is consistently chosen, rather than a probabilistic strategy, in which an outcome is chosen with a probability equal to its judged probability. Extended practice in the learning environment did not affect choice strategy selection, contrary to reports from previous studies, results of which may instead be attributable to changes with practice in the variability and extremity of the perceived probabilities on which the choices were based. Keywords: choice strategies, choice probability, judged probability, probability matching, maximizing