Search

Severe heat waves lasting for weeks and expanding over hundreds of kilometres in horizontal scale have many harmful impacts on health, ecosystems, societies, and economy. Under the ongoing climate change heat waves are becoming even longer and hotter, and as proactive adaptation, the development of early warning services is essential. Weather forecasts in extended range (2 weeks to 1 month) tend to indicate a higher skill in predicting warm extremes than average temperature events in Europe. We verified hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in forecasting heat wave days, i.e., periods with the 5-day mean temperature being above its 90th percentile. The verification was done in 5° × 2° resolution over Europe, based on the forecast week (1 to 4 weeks). In the first forecast week, it is evident that across Europe, the accuracy of ECMWF heat wave forecasts surpasses that of a mere climatological forecast. Even into the second week, in many places in Europe, the ECMWF forecasts prove to be more reliable than their statistical counterparts. However, if we extend the forecast lead time to 3–4 weeks, predictability begins to lower to such a level that it can no longer be said, with the exception of Southeastern Europe, that the forecasts in general were statistically significantly better than the statistical forecast. Nonetheless, intense and prolonged heat waves during the third forecast weeks appear to have a higher-than-average level of predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles ([PM.sub.2.5]), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated [PM.sub.2.5] in different regions of Europe. METHODS: [PM.sub.2.5] emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily [PM.sub.2.5] concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 x 50 [km.sup.2] spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term [PM.sub.2.5] exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. RESULTS: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated [PM.sub.2.5] in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated [PM.sub.2.5], and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by [PM.sub.2.5] released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194., Introduction Vegetation fires, which include wildfires, prescribed forest fires, and open-field burnings related to agricultural practices, release large quantities of combustion-originated air pollutants (Naeher et al. 2007). Of these, particulate [...]

BACKGROUND: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM[sub 2.5]), which are harmful to health. Te fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM[sub 2.5] in different regions of Europe. METHODS: PM[sub 2.5] emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM[sub 2.5] concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 X 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM[sub 2.5] exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. RESULTS: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM[sub 2.5] in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM[sub 2.5], and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM[sub 2.5] released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. CITATION: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM[sub 2.5] exposure in Europe- assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi. org/10.1289/EHP194 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental heat is a health risk especially for the elderly and those with a pre-existing disease. Mortality effects of prolonged heat waves in Finland were studied for different age groups, genders, causes of death, and places of death. Mortality due to various causes of death increased significantly in people aged 75 or above. The increase in risk was higher in health care facilities than other places of death. In the future, more efficient mitigation of adverse health effects of heat is needed as the population ages and climate change proceeds. Special attention should be given to the conditions in health care facilities.