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A large excess risk of thyroid cancer was observed among Belarusian/Russian/Baltic Chornobyl cleanup workers. A more recent study of Ukraine cleanup workers found more modest excess risks of thyroid cancer. Dose errors in this data are substantial, associated with model uncertainties and questionnaire response. Regression calibration is often used for dose-error adjustment, but may not adequately account for the full error distribution. We aimed to examine the impact of exposure-assessment uncertainties on thyroid cancer among Ukrainian cleanup workers using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and compare with results derived using regression calibration. Analyses assessed the sensitivity of results to various components of internal and external dose. Regression calibration yielded an excess odds ratio per Gy (EOR/Gy) of 0.437 (95% CI - 0.042, 1.577, p = 0.100), compared with the EOR/Gy using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood of 0.517 (95% CI - 0.039, 2.035, p = 0.093). Trend risk estimates for follicular morphology tumors exhibited much more extreme effects of full-likelihood adjustment, the EOR/Gy using regression calibration of 3.224 (95% CI - 0.082, 30.615, p = 0.068) becoming ~ 50% larger, 4.708 (95% CI - 0.075, 85.143, p = 0.066) when using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Results were sensitive to omission of external components of dose. In summary, use of Monte Carlo maximum likelihood adjustment for dose error led to increases in trend risks, particularly for follicular morphology thyroid cancers, where risks increased by ~ 50%, and were borderline significant. The unexpected finding for follicular tumors needs to be replicated in other exposed groups.

The radiation exposure estimates for the atomic bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki have evolved over the past several decades, reflecting a constant strive by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to provide thorough dosimetry to their cohort. Recently, a working group has introduced a new series of anatomical models, called the J45 phantom series, which improves upon those currently used at RERF through greater age resolution, sex distinction, anatomical realism, and organ dose availability. To evaluate the potential dosimetry improvements that would arise from their use in an RERF Dosimetry System, organ doses in the J45 series are evaluated here using environmental fluence data for 20 generalized survivor scenarios pulled directly from the current dosimetry system. The energy- and angle-dependent gamma and neutron fluences were converted to a source term for use in MCNP6, a modern Monte Carlo radiation transport code. Overall, the updated phantom series would be expected to provide dose improvements to several important organs, including the active marrow, colon, and stomach wall (up to 20, 20, and 15% impact on total dose, respectively). The impacts were especially significant for neutron dose estimates (up to a two-fold difference) and within organs which were unavailable in the previous phantom series. These impacts were consistent across the 20 scenarios and are potentially even greater when biological effectiveness of the neutron dose component is considered. The entirety of the dosimetry results for all organs are available as supplementary data, providing confident justification for potential future DS workflows utilizing the J45 phantom series.

This original study aims to quantify the human factor uncertainties in radiation doses for Chernobyl cleanup workers that are associated with errors in direct or proxy personal interviews due to poor memory recall a long time after exposure. Two types of doses due to external irradiation during cleanup mission were calculated independently. First, a "reference" dose, that was calculated using the historical description of cleanup activities reported by 47 cleanup workers shortly after the completion of the cleanup mission. Second, a "current" dose that was calculated using information reported by 47 cleanup workers and respective 24 proxies (colleagues) nominated by cleanup workers during a personal interview conducted more recently, as part of this study, i.e., 25-30 years after their cleanup missions. The Jaccard similarity coefficient for reference and current doses was moderate: the arithmetic mean ± standard deviation was 0.29 ± 0.18 (median = 0.31) and 0.23 ± 0.18 (median = 0.22) for the cleanup worker's and proxy's interviews, respectively. The agreement between two doses was better if the cleanup worker was interviewed rather than his proxy: the median ratio of current to reference dose was 1.0 and 0.56 for cleanup workers and proxies, respectively. The present study has shown that human factor uncertainties lead to underestimation or overestimation of the "true" reference dose for most cleanup workers up to 3 times. In turn, the potential impact of these errors on radiation-related risk estimates should be assessed.

Background The radiation-related risk of breast cancer among women following the Chornobyl accident remains uncertain. During pregnancy, there is rapid cell proliferation in the breast while radioactive iodine from fallout exposure can concentrate in lactating breast tissues. Methods We conducted a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of breast cancer in a cohort of 2,631 women who were lactating and/or pregnant at any time during the two-month period of radioiodine fallout (April 26, 1986 - June 30, 1986). There were 37,151 person-years of follow-up, and 26 incident breast cancers were identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. Breast cancer rates among pregnant or lactating women were compared to the general population rates, and SIRs were adjusted for oblast, urban/rural, age, and calendar year. Results The SIR was non-significantly elevated for women lactating at the time of accident (SIR = 1.30, 95% CI: 0.40; 3.01), but not for women initiating lactation within the two months of the accident (SIR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.32; 1.65) or women pregnant at the time of the accident (SIR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.44; 1.18). Conclusions The increased SIR for breast cancer among lactating women is consistent with the results of a similar study in Belarus and indicates the need to quantify the radiation risk of breast cancer in a larger study of women lactating during the period of fallout exposure.

The radiation-related risk of breast cancer among women following the Chornobyl accident remains uncertain. During pregnancy, there is rapid cell proliferation in the breast while radioactive iodine from fallout exposure can concentrate in lactating breast tissues. We conducted a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of breast cancer in a cohort of 2,631 women who were lactating and/or pregnant at any time during the 2-month period of radioiodine fallout (April 26, 1986-June 30, 1986). There were 37,151 person-years of follow-up, and 26 incident breast cancers were identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. Breast cancer rates among pregnant or lactating women were compared to the general population rates, and SIRs were adjusted for oblast, urban/rural, age, and calendar year. The SIR was not significant for women pregnant at the time of the accident (SIR = 0.75; 95% CI 0.44, 1.18) or for women lactating anytime within 2 months of the accident (SIR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.48, 1.68). However, there was a non-significantly elevated risk for women lactating at the time of accident (SIR = 1.30, 95% CI 0.40, 3.01). The increased SIR for breast cancer among lactating women is consistent with the results of a similar study in Belarus and indicates the need to quantify the radiation risk of breast cancer in a larger study of women lactating during the period of fallout exposure.

This article presents a methodology for assessing the radiation doses in an urban environment due to external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground and other surfaces as well as from a passing radioactive cloud. The approach was developed and applied to assess individual doses of residents of the town of Pripyat who were evacuated shortly after the Chernobyl accident. Typically, the so-called location factor is defined as the ratio of the dose rate at a point of exposure and the dose rate at an undisturbed lawn far from any buildings. The present study used a new definition of the location factor as a regular four-dimensional grid of ratios of air kerma rates indoors and outdoors distributed in space and time. The location factors were calculated for two scenarios: outdoor and indoor values for typical apartments and buildings in Pripyat. Indoor location factors varied within two orders of magnitude depending on the floor of residence and place of staying inside the apartment. Values of the indoor location factor differed during the daytime and night by a factor of 30–40 depending on the behaviour of an individual within the apartment. Both, outdoor and indoor location factors decreased with decreasing distances between buildings. It was shown that during the first 4 days after the accident, air kerma rates in Pripyat were governed by the radionuclides deposited on the ground surface, and not by radionuclides in the cloud. Specifically, the contribution of the radioactive cloud to air kerma rate was maximal (i.e., 2.3%) on the morning of 28 April 1986. The methodology and results of this study are currently being used to reconstruct the radiation gonadal dose for the subjects of the American–Ukrainian study of parental irradiation in Chernobyl cleanup workers and evacuees for investigating germline mutations in their offspring.

This article presents a method for assessing the radionuclide surface contamination density (SCD) on open sites and in premises of a radiation hazardous facility based on measurements of the ambient dose equivalent rate (ADER). The method is intended for use at the initial stage of the assessment of the radiation environment at facilities. The assessed SCD at a given location on the surface can differ from the directly measured SCD at that location, since sources located on the surface and distributed by the depth contribute to the ADER value. The method makes it possible to estimate SCD with reasonable accuracy without increasing the number of measurements, and thus avoid additional occupational exposure and the use of additional resources. SCD and ADER as spatial variables have different support of measurement data. For ADER, measured at a height of 1 m, the support of measurement data can be taken to be a circle in the centre of which a gamma-ray detector is located, with a radius of several tens of meters. In contrast, SCD has the support of measurement data, close to the overall dimensions of the beta detector (100 cm2). To solve the problem of SCD calculation on the basis of ADER measurements, the method of conversion coefficients (MCC) is usually applied, based on the use of conversion factors; however, this method provides an adequate estimate only under conditions of an SCD with low gradient over the surface. The method proposed in this article is applicable for an arbitrary distribution of SCD, and designed to deal with heterogeneous contamination patterns. The developed method is based on the numerical solution of the Fredholm equation of the first kind. The measurement data always contain an error, therefore, the task of the SCD calculation is an ill-posed problem, and the Tikhonov regularisation method (ridge regression) was used to solve it. The article presents the method developed and examples of use. Validation of the method was performed using 38 measurements of the radioactive contamination from 137Cs in soil. It is shown that the method proposed in the article demonstrates a significant superiority in comparison with the MCC method, because it allows more accurate localisation of areas contaminated with radionuclides and is applicable for an arbitrary distribution of SCD.

The radiation exposure estimates for the atomic bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki have evolved over the past several decades, reflecting a constant strive by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to provide thorough dosimetry to their cohort. Recently, a working group has introduced a new series of anatomical models, called the J45 phantom series, which improves upon those currently used at RERF through greater age resolution, sex distinction, anatomical realism, and organ dose availability. To evaluate the potential dosimetry improvements that would arise from their use in an RERF Dosimetry System, organ doses in the J45 series are evaluated here using environmental fluence data for 20 generalized survivor scenarios pulled directly from the current dosimetry system. The energy- and angle-dependent gamma and neutron fluences were converted to a source term for use in MCNP6, a modern Monte Carlo radiation transport code. Overall, the updated phantom series would be expected to provide dose improvements to several important organs, including the active marrow, colon, and stomach wall (up to 20, 20, and 15% impact on total dose, respectively). The impacts were especially significant for neutron dose estimates (up to a two-fold difference) and within organs which were unavailable in the previous phantom series. These impacts were consistent across the 20 scenarios and are potentially even greater when biological effectiveness of the neutron dose component is considered. The entirety of the dosimetry results for all organs are available as supplementary data, providing confident justification for potential future DS workflows utilizing the J45 phantom series.

Background Pregnancy and lactation may constitute radiation-sensitive reproductive periods due to rapid cell proliferation and concentration of radioiodine in the lactating breast. However, there are limited epidemiological data among women exposed to radiation during these periods. Methods We examined incidence of breast cancer in a cohort of 3214 women who were pregnant and/or lactating within 2 months (26 April to 30 June 1986) of the Chernobyl accident and residing in contaminated regions of Belarus. There were 33 breast cancers identified through linkage with the Belarusian National Cancer Registry. Breast cancer rates among women who were either pregnant and/or lactating were compared with population rates by calculating standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for attained age, oblast, urban/rural residence and calendar year. Results Among women who were lactating, we found a greater than 2-fold increased risk of breast cancer compared with the general population, SIR = 2.49 (95% CI: 1.55, 3.75). In contrast, women who were pregnant were not at increased risk (SIR = 0.84 95% CI: 0.46, 1.38). The SIR was highest in women who were exposed at a younger age and at the earliest time period since the accident, though stratified analyses had limited sample sizes. Conclusions We found a significantly increased risk of breast cancer among women residing in contaminated areas of Belarus who were lactating at the time of the accident and may have had elevated exposure to radioiodine, when compared with the general population. Studies of breast cancer with individual radiation dose estimates among women exposed during lactation are warranted.

Radiation doses of parents exposed from the Chornobyl accident as cleanup workers or evacuees were estimated in the National Cancer Institute-National Research Center for Radiation Medicine trio (i.e. father, mother, offspring) study aimed at investigating the radiation effects on germline de novo mutations in children as well as other outcomes. Paternal (testes) and maternal (ovaries) gonadal doses were calculated along with associated uncertainty distributions for the following exposure pathways: (a) external irradiation during the cleanup mission, (b) external irradiation during residence in Pripyat, and (c) external irradiation and (d) ingestion of radiocesium isotopes, such as 134Cs and 137Cs, during residence in settlements other than Pripyat. Gonadal doses were reconstructed for 298 trios for the periods from the time of the accident on 26 April 1986 to two time points before the child’s date of birth (DOB): 51 (DOB-51) and 38 (DOB-38) weeks. The two doses, DOB-51 and DOB-38 were equal (within 1 mGy) in most instances, except for 35 fathers where the conception of the child occurred within 3 months of exposure or during exposure. The arithmetic mean of gonadal DOB-38 doses was 227 mGy (median: 11 mGy, range 0–4080 mGy) and 8.5 mGy (median: 1.0 mGy, range 0–550 mGy) for fathers and mothers, respectively. Gonadal doses varied considerably depending on the exposure pathway, the highest gonadal DOB-38 doses being received during the cleanup mission (mean doses of 376 and 34 mGy, median of 144 and 7.4 mGy for fathers and mothers, respectively), followed by exposure during residence in Pripyat (7.7 and 13 mGy for mean, 7.2 and 6.2 mGy for median doses) and during residence in other settlements (2.0 and 2.1 mGy for mean, 0.91 and 0.81 mGy for median doses). Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate the parental gonadal doses and associated uncertainties. The geometric standard deviations (GSDs) in the individual parental stochastic doses due to external irradiation during the cleanup mission varied from 1.2 to 4.7 (mean of 1.8), while during residence in Pripyat they varied from 1.4 to 2.8 (mean of 1.8), while the mean GSD in doses received during residence in settlements other than Pripyat was 1.3 and 1.4 for external irradiation and ingestion of radiocesium isotopes, respectively.

Purpose: To share the experience in regulation of radiation safety and protection of workers involved in management of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and radioactive waste (RW), as well as radiation protection of the population and environment in the vicinity of sites for temporary storage at Andreeva Bay on the Kola Peninsula. Material and methods: Spent fuel from Russian nuclear powered submarines has been stored at shore based facilities for more than 20 years, notably at Andreeva Bay. The storage facilities were for some years poorly maintained and a significant fraction of the fuel that is still in store at the site wais damaged. Over the last years, hugemuch work has been done to improve the technical infrastructure and prepare for removal of the SNF from the temporary stores, management of existing RW. Results: This paper presents progress with projects of the FMBA of Russia and NRPA cooperation for regulation of radiation safety and protection. During the researches, the following issues were addressed: radiological threat assessment to identify the priority directions of regulation; detailed analysis of the radiation situation on sites, at the territories and nearby the sites; radiation control and monitoring of the environmental conditions; development of the computer maps and geo-information system; emergency preparedness and response; improvement of radiation safety culture; etc. Based on the received results of monitoring and assessment of the current risks, site-specific regulatory documents have been developed for the bodies and institutions under the FMBA of Russia involved in the activities to control the facility. Those documents include the requirements for: radiation protection of workers and population; personal dose monitoring; the RW management including the very low level RW; implementation of the environmental monitoring; radiation monitoring nearby the Andreeva Bay SevRAO facility; and remediation of the sites as remediation criteria and regulations. The next stage of work is to carry out the regulation of large-scale removal of SNF during 2017–2021 and its subsequent transfer to Mayak PA, and operations to bring the infrastructure of the site into the hsafe conditions, i.e., ecological remediation of the site – by 2025. Lessons learnt from this work are being used in support of improved international recommendations and guidance on how to address legacy issues. Conclusion: The experience accumulated during regulation of the remediation process of the former Naval Coastal Technical Bases, has helped to identify new relevant areas of improvement of the regulatory supervision at nuclear legacy sites. The study of potential hazard of radiation exposure to the personnel during technological operations of SNF and RW management is very important issue. In this light, the regulator in cooperation of the operator should develop some effective and efficient activities for dose monitoring. When dealing with the protection of the population and environment, a methodology of comprehensive radiation and chemical monitoring should be developed and models of radiation and chemical risks should be improved taking into account features of contamination of the site under remediation. An important link of the social focus of the regulator and the operator is to improve strategies of public communications near legacy sites under remediation.

Radiation doses received by workers during their movement within areas contaminated as a result of events and activities, leading to emergency or existing exposure situations, may provide a substantial contribution to total external exposure during remediation work. This paper describes an approach to minimise worker external exposure in these circumstances, based on graph theory. The paper describes several tasks, including: searching for a route with the lowest dose, searching for an optimal bypass with a given set of control points and searching for the optimal road network coverage. Classical graph theory algorithms have been used (Dijkstra's algorithm, Chinese postman problem and travelling salesman problem). Algorithms for solving the above mentioned problems have been developed and were included in the information-analytical system for radiation safety. This software has been applied for optimisation of protection during remediation work at the Andreeva Bay site of temporary storage for spent fuel and radioactive waste in the Kola Peninsula, both in the context of existing exposure situations and improving the preparedness for emergency exposure situations.

This paper deals with classification of dose distributions of nuclear workers based on antikurtosis (Q) and entropy coefficients (K) and their relationship presented in QK-diagrams. It is shown that determination of the most appropriate distribution to adopt, for a specific data set of a wide range of input data, requires building and analysing QK-diagrams for distributions of logarithms of individual doses. Actual dose distributions for emergency and occupational exposure situations were then considered, as well as doses for one day of work during clean-up and routine activities. It is shown that, in all cases, three types of distributions of logarithms of individual doses were present: normal, Weibull and Chapeau. The location of the representation point of a dose distribution reflects the degree of dose control of the group of workers whose individual doses are collectively displayed in the QK-diagram. The more the representation point of the analysed distribution of the logarithms of the individual dose of a given contingent of workers deviates from the point of the lognormal distribution, the more there was intervention in the process of individual dose accumulation. Thus, QK-diagrams could be used to develop a dose control function. It is shown that the hybrid lognormal distribution, which is widely used in the field of radiation safety, for the purpose of approximation of real dose distributions, is unable to satisfactorily describe many dose distributions arising in aftermath operations and occupational exposure.

The Coastal Technical Base (CTB) №569 at Andreeva Bay was established in the early 1960s and intended for the refueling of nuclear submarine reactors and temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and radioactive waste (RW). In 2001, the base was transferred to the Russian Ministry for Atomic Energy and the site remediation began. The paper describes in detail the radiation situation change at the technical site in Andreeva Bay from 2002-2016, the period of preparation for the most critical phase of remedial work: removal of spent fuel assemblies. The analysis of aggregated indicators and data mining were used. The article suggests the best number and location of checkpoints needed to ensure sufficient accuracy of the radiation situation description. The fractal properties of the radiation field are studied using the Hurst index. The relationship between checkpoints was assessed using the method of searching for checkpoint communities. The decrease in the integral of the ambient dose equivalent rate (ADER) at the technical site was evaluated by the method of time series decomposition. Three components of time series were identified: trend, seasonal and residual. The trend of the ADER integral over the technical site is a monotonic decreasing function, where the initial and final values differ tenfold. Taking into account that 137Cs dominates the radiation situation on-site, it is clear that the ADER due to the radionuclide decay will have decreased by 1.4 times. It is estimated that only a small proportion of 137Cs has migrated off-site. Therefore, approximately a sevenfold decrease in dose rate is mainly due to remediation activities of personnel. During the year, the seasonal component varies the ADER integral by a factor of two, due to snowfall. The residual component reflects the uncertainty of the ADER integral calculation and phases of active SNF and RW management. The methods developed are used to support the optimization of remediation work as well as regulatory supervision of occupational radiation protection.

Andreeva Bay in northwest Russia hosts one of the former coastal technical bases of the Northern Fleet. Currently, this base is designated as the Andreeva Bay branch of Northwest Center for Radioactive Waste Management (SevRAO) and is a site of temporary storage (STS) for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and other radiological waste generated during the operation and decommissioning of nuclear submarines and ships. According to an integrated expert evaluation, this site is the most dangerous nuclear facility in northwest Russia. Environmental rehabilitation of the site is currently in progress and is supported by strong international collaboration. This paper describes how the optimization principle (ALARA) has been adopted during the planning of remediation work at the Andreeva Bay STS and how Russian-Norwegian collaboration greatly contributed to ensuring the development and maintenance of a high level safety culture during this process. More specifically, this paper describes how integration of a system, specifically designed for improving the radiological safety of workers during the remediation work at Andreeva Bay, was developed in Russia. It also outlines the 3D radiological simulation and virtual reality based systems developed in Norway that have greatly facilitated effective implementation of the ALARA principle, through supporting radiological characterisation, work planning and optimization, decision making, communication between teams and with the authorities and training of field operators.