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The characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres through transit spectra is becoming increasingly feasible, and technology for direct detection remains ongoing. The possibility of detecting spectral features could enable quantitative constraints on atmospheric composition or even serve as a potential biosignature, with the sensitivity of the instrument and observation time as key limiting factors. This paper discusses the possibility that future remote observations could detect the presence of radioactive elements in the atmospheres of exoplanets. Such radionuclides could arise from cosmogenic or geologic sources, as well as from industrial sources, all of which occur on Earth. The detection of radionuclides in an exoplanetary atmosphere could reveal important properties about the planet's geology or space environment, and potentially could serve as a technosignature. However, many radionuclides, including those from industrial sources, attach to aerosol or other particles that cannot be remotely characterized. Limited experimental and theoretical spectral data exist for long-lived radionuclides, but the sensitivity required to detect the spectral features of some known radionuclides would be at least several orders of magnitude greater than required to detect the spectral features of molecular oxygen. Present-day remote spectroscopic observing mission concepts at ultraviolet to mid-infrared wavelengths are not sensitive to discern the presence of radionuclides in exoplanetary atmospheres. Interplanetary fly-by or probe missions may be more likely to provide such data in the future., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

This paper highlights methods from geostatistics that are relevant to the interpretation, intercomparison, and synthesis of atmospheric model data, with a specific application to exoplanet atmospheric modeling. Climate models are increasingly used to study theoretical and observational properties of exoplanets, which include a hierarchy of models ranging from fast and idealized models to those that are slower but more comprehensive. Exploring large parameter spaces with computationally-expensive models can be accomplished with sparse sampling techniques, but analyzing such sparse samples can pose challenges for conventional interpolation functions. Ordinary kriging is a statistical method for describing the spatial distribution of a data set in terms of the variogram function, which can be used to interpolate sparse samples across any number of dimensions. Variograms themselves may also be useful diagnostic tools for describing the spatial distribution of model data in exoplanet atmospheric model intercomparison projects. Universal kriging is another method that can synthesize data calculated by models of different complexity, which can be used to combine sparse samples of data from slow models with larger samples of data from fast models. Ordinary and universal kriging can also provide a way to synthesize model predictions with sparse samples of exoplanet observations and may have other applications in exoplanet science., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal

Atmospheric pollutants such as CFCs and NO$_{2}$ have been proposed as potential remotely detectable atmospheric technosignature gases. Here we investigate the potential for artificial greenhouse gases including CF$_{4}$, C$_{2}$F$_{6}$, C$_{3}$F$_{8}$, SF$_{6}$, and NF$_{3}$ to generate detectable atmospheric signatures. In contrast to passive incidental byproducts of industrial processes, artificial greenhouse gases would represent an intentional effort to change the climate of a planet with long-lived, low toxicity gases and would possess low false positive potential. An extraterrestrial civilization may be motivated to undertake such an effort to arrest a predicted snowball state on their home world or to terraform an otherwise uninhabitable terrestrial planet within their system. Because artificial greenhouse gases strongly absorb in the thermal mid-infrared window of temperate atmospheres, a terraformed planet will logically possess strong absorption features from these gases at mid-IR wavelengths ($\sim$8-12 $\mu$m), possibly accompanied by diagnostic features in the near-IR. As a proof of concept, we calculate the needed observation time to detect 1 [10](100) ppm of C$_{2}$F$_{6}$/C$_{3}$F$_{8}$/SF$_{6}$ on TRAPPIST-1f with JWST MIRI/LRS and NIRSpec. We find that a combination of 1[10](100) ppm each of C$_{2}$F$_{6}$, C$_{3}$F$_{8}$, and SF$_{6}$ can be detected with an S/N $\geq$ 5 in as few as 25[10](5) transits with MIRI/LRS. We further explore mid-infrared direct-imaging scenarios with the LIFE mission concept and find these gases are more detectable than standard biosignatures at these concentrations. Consequently, artificial greenhouse gases can be readily detected (or excluded) during normal planetary characterization observations with no additional overhead., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables; ApJ, 969, 20

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has provided the first opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets and estimate their surface conditions. Earth-sized planets around Sun-like stars are currently inaccessible with JWST however, and will have to be observed using the next generation of telescopes with direct imaging capabilities. Detecting active volcanism on an Earth-like planet would be particularly valuable as it would provide insight into its interior, and provide context for the commonality of the interior states of Earth and Venus. In this work we used a climate model to simulate four exoEarths over eight years with ongoing large igneous province eruptions with outputs ranging from 1.8-60 Gt of sulfur dioxide. The atmospheric data from the simulations were used to model direct imaging observations between 0.2-2.0 $\mu$m, producing reflectance spectra for every month of each exoEarth simulation. We calculated the amount of observation time required to detect each of the major absorption features in the spectra, and identified the most prominent effects that volcanism had on the reflectance spectra. These effects include changes in the size of the O$_3$, O$_2$, and H$_2$O absorption features, and changes in the slope of the spectrum. Of these changes, we conclude that the most detectable and least ambiguous evidence of volcanism are changes in both O$_3$ absorption and the slope of the spectrum., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, Accepted for publication in AJ (September 26, 2023)

We present observations of the 1.35+/-0.07 Earth-radius planet L 98-59 c, collected using Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope. L 98-59 is a nearby (10.6 pc), bright (H=7.4 mag), M3V star that harbors three small, transiting planets. As one of the closest known transiting multi-planet systems, L 98-59 offers one of the best opportunities to probe and compare the atmospheres of rocky planets that formed in the same stellar environment. We measured the transmission spectrum of L 98-59 c and the extracted spectrum showed marginal evidence (2.1{\sigma}) for wavelength-dependent transit depth variations that could indicate the presence of an atmosphere. We forward-modeled possible atmospheric compositions of the planet based on the transmission spectrum. Although L 98-59 was previously thought to be a fairly quiet star, we have seen evidence for stellar activity, and therefore we assessed a scenario where the source of the signal originates with inhomogeneities on stellar surface. We also see a correlation between transits of L 98-59 c and L 98-59 b collected 12.5 hours apart, which is suggestive (but at <2{\sigma} confidence) of a contaminating component from the star impacting the exoplanet spectrum. While intriguing, our results are inconclusive and additional data is needed to verify any atmospheric signal. Fortunately, additional data has been collected from both HST and JWST. Should this result be confirmed with additional data, L 98-59 c would be the first planet smaller than two Earth-radii with a detected atmosphere., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

With the increasing number of planets discovered by TESS, the atmospheric characterization of small exoplanets is accelerating. L98-59 is a M-dwarf hosting a multi-planet system, and so far, four small planets have been confirmed. The innermost planet b is $\sim15\%$ smaller and $\sim60\%$ lighter than Earth, and should thus have a predominantly rocky composition. The Hubble Space Telescope observed five primary transits of L98-59b in $1.1-1.7\ \mu$m, and here we report the data analysis and the resulting transmission spectrum of the planet. We measure the transit depths for each of the five transits and, by combination, we obtain a transmission spectrum with an overall precision of $\sim20$ ppm in for each of the 18 spectrophotometric channels. With this level of precision, the transmission spectrum does not show significant modulation, and is thus consistent with a planet without any atmosphere or a planet having an atmosphere and high-altitude clouds or haze. The scenarios involving an aerosol-free, H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with H$_2$O or CH$_4$ are inconsistent with the data. The transmission spectrum also disfavors, but does not rules out, an H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere without clouds. A spectral retrieval process suggests that an H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with HCN and clouds or haze may be the preferred solution, but this indication is non-conclusive. Future James Webb Space Telescope observations may find out the nature of the planet among the remaining viable scenarios., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

Planets in synchronous rotation around low-mass stars are the most salient targets for current ground- and space-based missions to observe and characterize. Such model calculations can help to prioritize targets for observation with current and future missions; however, intrinsic differences in the complexity and physical parameterizations of various models can lead to different predictions of a planet's climate state. Understanding such model differences is necessary if such models are to guide target selection and aid in the analysis of observations. This paper presents a protocol to intercompare models of a hypothetical planet with a 15 day synchronous rotation period around a 3000 K blackbody star across a parameter space of surface pressure and incident instellation. We conduct a sparse sample of 16 cases from a previously published exploration of this parameter space with the ExoPlaSim model. By selecting particular cases across this broad parameter space, the SAMOSA intercomparison will identify areas where simpler models are sufficient as well as areas where more complex GCMs are required. Our preliminary comparison using ExoCAM shows general consistency between the climate state predicted by ExoCAM and ExoPlaSim except in regions of the parameter space most likely to be in a steam atmosphere or incipient runaway greenhouse state. We use this preliminary analysis to define several options for participation in the intercomparison by models of all levels of complexity. The participation of other GCMs is crucial to understand how the atmospheric states across this parameter space differ with model capabilities., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal

Solar system exploration provides numerous possibilities for advancing technosignature science. The search for life in the solar system includes missions designed to search for evidence of biosignatures on other planetary bodies, but many missions could also attempt to search for and constrain the presence of technology within the solar system. Technosignatures and biosignatures represent complementary approaches toward searching for evidence of life in our solar neighborhood, and beyond. This report summarizes the potential technosignature opportunities within ongoing solar system exploration and the recommendations of the "Origins, Worlds, and Life" Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey. We discuss opportunities for constraining the prevalence of technosignatures within the solar system using current or future missions at negligible additional cost, and we present a preliminary assessment of gaps that may exist in the search for technosignatures within the solar system., Comment: A report from the First Penn State SETI Symposium

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how dfferences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-1e and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the aquaplanet ones, using atmospheric data from any of the four GCMs would require at least 17 transits. This prediction corresponds to UM simulated data which produces the lowest and thinnest clouds. Between 35-40% more clouds are predicted by ExoCAM or LMD-G due to higher thick terminator clouds. For the first time this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of 35-40% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES)., Comment: Accepted in the Planetary Science Journal as Part III of a series of 3 THAI papers

To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs -- ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D and the UM -- we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-1e with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMD-Generic and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-1e. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates., Comment: 35 pages, 22 figures; Published in The Planetary Science Journal

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7K (6K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures around 5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping., Comment: Published in the Planetary Science Journal as Part I of a series of 3 THAI papers

We confirm the planetary nature of TOI-532b, using a combination of precise near-infrared radial velocities with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, TESS light curves, ground based photometric follow-up, and high-contrast imaging. TOI-532 is a faint (J$\sim 11.5$) metal-rich M dwarf with Teff = $3957\pm69$ K and [Fe/H] = $0.38\pm0.04$; it hosts a transiting gaseous planet with a period of $\sim 2.3$ days. Joint fitting of the radial velocities with the TESS and ground-based transits reveal a planet with radius of $5.82\pm0.19$ R$_{\oplus}$, and a mass of $61.5_{-9.3}^{+9.7}$ M$_{\oplus}$. TOI-532b is the largest and most massive super Neptune detected around an M dwarf with both mass and radius measurements, and it bridges the gap between the Neptune-sized planets and the heavier Jovian planets known to orbit M dwarfs. It also follows the previously noted trend between gas giants and host star metallicity for M dwarf planets. In addition, it is situated at the edge of the Neptune desert in the Radius--Insolation plane, helping place constraints on the mechanisms responsible for sculpting this region of planetary parameter space., Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2006.14546

The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper presents the report of the TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop (14-16 September 2020). A review of the climate models and parameterizations of the atmospheric processes on terrestrial exoplanets, model advancements and limitations, as well as direction for future model development was discussed. We hope that this report will be used as a roadmap for future numerical simulations of exoplanet atmospheres and maintaining strong connections to the astronomical community., Comment: Accepted in the AAS Planetary Science Journal (PSJ)

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $\eta_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $\eta_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun., Comment: To appear in The Astronomical Journal

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), or the Extremely Large Telescope (ELTs), may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M dwarf system TRAPPIST-1 which has seven known transiting planets for which Transit Timing Variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ~66 % of the Earth's incident radiation, and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is therefore one of the prime targets for JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global Climate Models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to inter-compare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the Habitable Zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed with a modern Earth and pure CO2 atmospheres, respectively, and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM), however this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well., Comment: Accepted and published in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)

The collision-induced fundamental vibration-rotation band at 6.4 um is the most significant absorption feature from O2 in the infrared (Timofeyev and Tonkov, 1978; Rinslandet al., 1982, 1989), yet it has not been previously incorporated into exoplanet spectral analyses for several reasons. Either CIAs were not included or incomplete/obsolete CIA databases were used. Also, the current version of HITRAN does not include CIAs at 6.4 um with other collision partners (O2-X). We include O2-X CIA features in our transmission spectroscopy simulations by parameterizing the 6.4 um O2-N2 CIA based on Rinsland et al.(1989) and the O2-CO2 CIA based on Baranov et al. (2004). Here we report that the O2-X CIA may be the most detectable O2 feature for transit observations. For a potentialTRAPPIST-1e analogue system within 5 pc of the Sun, it could be the only O2 detectable signature with JWST (using MIRI LRS) for a modern Earth-like cloudy atmosphere with biological quantities of O2. Also, we show that the 6.4 um O2-X CIA would be prominent for O2-rich desiccated atmospheres (Luger and Barnes, 2015) and could be detectable with JWST in just a few transits. For systems beyond 5 pc, this feature could therefore be a powerful discriminator of uninhabited planets with non-biological "false positive" O2 in their atmospheres - as they would only be detectable at those higher O2 pressures., Comment: Published in Nature Astronomy

The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultra-cool host star having seven known Earth-size planets will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with JWST. However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with the LMD Generic model supplemented by 1-D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g: 1) modern Earth, 2) Archean Earth, and 3) CO2-rich atmospheres. JWST synthetic transit spectra were computed using the GSFC Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g atmospheres, with clouds and/or hazes, could be detected using JWST's NIRSpec prism from the CO2 absorption line at 4.3 um in less than 15 transits at 3 sigma or less than 35 transits at 5 sigma. However, our analysis suggests that other gases would require hundreds (or thousands) of transits to be detectable. We also find that H2O, mostly confined in the lower atmosphere, is very challenging to detect for these planets or similar systems if the planets' atmospheres are not in a moist greenhouse state. This result demonstrates that the use of GCMs, self-consistently taking into account the effect of clouds and sub-saturation, is crucial to evaluate the detectability of atmospheric molecules of interest as well as for interpreting future detections in a more global (and thus robust and relevant) approach., Comment: 36 pages, 19 figures

Several of NASA missions (TESS, JWST, WFIRST, etc.) and mission concepts (LUVOIR, HabEx, and OST) emphasize the exploration and characterization of exoplanets, and the study of the interstellar medium. We anticipate that a much broader set of chemical environments exists on exoplanets, necessitating data from a correspondingly broader set of chemical reactions. Similarly, the conditions that exist in astrophysical environments are very different from those traditionally probed in laboratory chemical kinetics studies. These are areas where quantum mechanical theory, applied to important reactions via well-validated chemical kinetics models, can fill a critical knowledge gap. Quantum chemical calculations are also introduced to study interior of planets, photochemical escape, and many critical chemical pathways (e.g. prebiotic environments, contaminations, etc.) After years of development of the relevant quantum chemical theories and significant advances in computational power, quantum chemical simulations have currently matured enough to describe real systems with an accuracy that competes with experiments. These approaches, therefore, have become the best possible alternative in many circumstances where performing experiments is too difficult, too expensive, or too dangerous, or simply not possible. In this white paper, several existing quantum chemical studies supporting exoplanetary science, planetary astronomy, and astrophysics are described, and the potential positive impacts of improved models associated with scientific goals of missions are addressed. In the end, a few recommendations from the scientific community to strengthen related research efforts at NASA are provided.

As we begin to discover rocky planets in the habitable zone of nearby stars with missions like TESS and CHEOPS, we will need quick advancements on instrumentation and observational techniques that will enable us to answer key science questions, such as What are the atmospheric characteristics of habitable zone rocky planets? How common are Earth-like biosignatures in rocky planets?} How similar or dissimilar are those planets to Earth? Over the next decade we expect to have discovered several Earth-analog candidates, but we will not have the tools to study the atmospheres of all of them in detail. Ground-based ELTs can identify biosignatures in the spectra of these candidate exo-Earths and understand how the planets' atmospheres compare to the Earth at different epochs. Transit spectroscopy, high-resolution spectroscopy, and reflected-light direct imaging on ELTs can identify multiple biosignatures for habitable zone, rocky planets around M stars at optical to near-infrared wavelengths. Thermal infrared direct imaging can detect habitable zone, rocky planets around AFGK stars, identifying ozone and motivating reflected-light follow-up observations with NASA missions like HabEx/LUVOIR. Therefore, we recommend that the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee support: (1) the search for Earth-like biosignatures on rocky planets around nearby stars as a key science case; (2) the construction over the next decade of ground-based Extremely Large Telecopes (ELTs), which will provide the large aperture and spatial resolution necessary to start revealing the atmospheres of Earth-analogues around nearby stars; (3) the development of instrumentation that optimizes the detection of biosignatures; and (4) the generation of accurate line lists for potential biosignature gases, which are needed as model templates to detect those molecules., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Science White Paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey

Provided that sufficient resources are deployed, we can look forward to an extraordinary future in which we will characterize potentially habitable planets. Until now, we have had to base interpretations of observations on habitability hypotheses that have remained untested. To test these theories observationally, we propose a statistical comparative planetology approach to questions of planetary habitability. The key objective of this approach will be to make quick and cheap measurements of critical planetary characteristics on a large sample of exoplanets, exploiting statistical marginalization to answer broad habitability questions. This relaxes the requirement of obtaining multiple types of data for a given planet, as it allows us to test a given hypothesis from only one type of measurement using the power of an ensemble. This approach contrasts with a "systems science" approach, where a few planets would be extensively studied with many types of measurements. A systems science approach is associated with a number of difficulties which may limit overall scientific return, including: the limited spectral coverage and noise of instruments, the diversity of exoplanets, and the extensive list of potential false negatives and false positives. A statistical approach could also be complementary to a systems science framework by providing context to interpret extensive measurements on planets of particular interest. We strongly recommend future missions with a focus on exoplanet characterization, and with the capability to study large numbers of planets in a homogenous way, rather than exclusively small, intense studies directed at a small sample of planets., Comment: White paper submitted in response to the solicitation of feedback for the "2020 Decadal Survey" by the National Academy of Sciences

The Kepler mission found hundreds of planet candidates within the habitable zones (HZ) of their host star, including over 70 candidates with radii larger than 3 Earth radii ($R_\oplus$) within the optimistic habitable zone (OHZ) (Kane et al. 2016). These giant planets are potential hosts to large terrestrial satellites (or exomoons) which would also exist in the HZ. We calculate the occurrence rates of giant planets ($R_p =$~3.0--25~$R_\oplus$) in the OHZ and find a frequency of $(6.5 \pm 1.9)\%$ for G stars, $(11.5 \pm 3.1)\%$ for K stars, and $(6 \pm 6)\%$ for M stars. We compare this with previously estimated occurrence rates of terrestrial planets in the HZ of G, K and M stars and find that if each giant planet has one large terrestrial moon then these moons are less likely to exist in the HZ than terrestrial planets. However, if each giant planet holds more than one moon, then the occurrence rates of moons in the HZ would be comparable to that of terrestrial planets, and could potentially exceed them. We estimate the mass of each planet candidate using the mass-radius relationship developed by Chen & Kipping (2016). We calculate the Hill radius of each planet to determine the area of influence of the planet in which any attached moon may reside, then calculate the estimated angular separation of the moon and planet for future imaging missions. Finally, we estimate the radial velocity semi-amplitudes of each planet for use in follow up observations., Comment: 19 Pages, 16 Figures, 5 Tables

Highly volcanic exoplanets, which can be variously characterized as 'lava worlds', 'magma ocean worlds', or 'super-Ios' are high priority targets for investigation. The term 'lava world' may refer to any planet with extensive surface lava lakes, while the term 'magma ocean world' refers to planets with global or hemispherical magma oceans at their surface. 'Highly volcanic planets', including super-Ios, may simply have large, or large numbers of, active explosive or extrusive volcanoes of any form. They are plausibly highly diverse, with magmatic processes across a wide range of compositions, temperatures, activity rates, volcanic eruption styles, and background gravitational force magnitudes. Worlds in all these classes are likely to be the most characterizable rocky exoplanets in the near future due to observational advantages that stem from their preferential occurrence in short orbital periods and their bright day-side flux in the infrared. Transit techniques should enable a level of characterization of these worlds analogous to hot Jupiters. Understanding processes on highly volcanic worlds is critical to interpret imminent observations. The physical states of these worlds are likely to inform not just geodynamic processes, but also planet formation, and phenomena crucial to habitability. Volcanic and magmatic activity uniquely allows chemical investigation of otherwise spectroscopically inaccessible interior compositions. These worlds will be vital to assess the degree to which planetary interior element abundances compare to their stellar hosts, and may also offer pathways to study both the very young Earth, and the very early form of many silicate planets where magma oceans and surface lava lakes are expected to be more prevalent. We suggest that highly volcanic worlds may become second only to habitable worlds in terms of both scientific and public long-term interest., Comment: A white paper submitted in response to the National Academy of Sciences 2018 Exoplanet Science Strategy solicitation, from the NASA Sellers Exoplanet Environments Collaboration (SEEC) of the Goddard Space Flight Center. 6 pages, 0 figures

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (Ts); snowball (Ts < 235 K), waterbelt (235 K < Ts < 250 K), temperate (275 K < Ts < 315 K), and moist greenhouse (Ts > 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea-ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having Ts ~ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ~1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ~2.2, ~2.4 and ~4.7 Gyr around F-, G- and K-dwarf stars respectively due to main sequence brightening., Comment: accepted at Astrophysical Journal, 3 tables, 6 figures, 43 pages

For decades, scientists have tried to explain the evidence for fluvial activity on early Mars, but a consensus has yet to emerge regarding the mechanism for producing it. One hypothesis suggests early Mars was warmed by a thick greenhouse atmosphere. Another suggests that early Mars was generally cold but was warmed occasionally by impacts or by episodes of enhanced volcanism. These latter hypotheses struggle to produce the amounts of rainfall needed to form the martian valleys, but are consistent with inferred low rates of weathering compared to Earth. Here, we provide a geophysical mechanism that could have induced cycles of glaciation and deglaciation on early Mars. Our model produces dramatic climate cycles with extended periods of glaciation punctuated by warm periods lasting up to 10 Myr, much longer than those generated in other episodic warming models. The cycles occur because stellar insolation was low, and because CO2 outgassing is not able to keep pace with CO2 consumption by silicate weathering followed by deposition of carbonates. While CO2 by itself is not able to deglaciate early Mars in our model, we assume that the greenhouse effect is enhanced by substantial amounts of H2 outgassed from Mars' reduced crust and mantle. Our hypothesis can be tested by future Mars exploration that better establishes the time scale for valley formation., Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures, EPSL accepted