Search

BackgroundTrials in Africa indicate that medical adult male circumcision (MAMC) reduces the risk of HIV by 60%. MAMC may avert 2 to 8 million HIV infections over 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa and cost less than treating those who would have been infected. This paper estimates the financial and human resources required to roll out MAMC and the net savings due to reduced infections.MethodsWe developed a model which included costing, demography and HIV epidemiology. We used it to investigate 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of male circumcision was lower than 80% and HIV prevalence among adults was higher than 5%, in addition to Uganda and the Nyanza province in Kenya. We assumed that the roll-out would take 5 years and lead to an MC prevalence among adult males of 85%. We also assumed that surgery would be done as it was in the trials. We calculated public program cost, number of full-time circumcisers and net costs or savings when adjusting for averted HIV treatments. Costs were in USD, discounted to 2007. 95% percentile intervals (95% PI) were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations.ResultsIn the first 5 years the number of circumcisers needed was 2 282 (95% PI: 2 018 to 2 959), or 0.24 (95% PI: 0.21 to 0.31) per 10,000 adults. In years 6-10, the number of circumcisers needed fell to 513 (95% PI: 452 to 664). The estimated 5-year cost of rolling out MAMC in the public sector was $919 million (95% PI: 726 to 1 245). The cumulative net cost over the first 10 years was $672 million (95% PI: 437 to 1,021) and over 20 years there were net savings of $2.3 billion (95% PI: 1.4 to 3.4).ConclusionA rapid roll-out of MAMC in sub-Saharan Africa requires substantial funding and a high number of circumcisers for the first five years. These investments are justified by MAMC's substantial health benefits and the savings accrued by averting future HIV infections. Lower ongoing costs and continued care savings suggest long-term sustainability.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a dynamic compartmental simulation model for Botswana and India, developed to identify the best strategies for preventing spread of HIV/AIDS. METHODS: The following interventions were considered: a behavioural intervention focused on female sex workers; a conventional programme for the treatment of sexually transmitted infections; a programme for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission; an antiretroviral treatment programme for the entire population, based on a single regimen; and an antiretroviral treatment programme for sex workers only, also based on a single regimen. FINDINGS: The interventions directed at sex workers as well as those dealing with sexually transmitted infections showed promise for long-term prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, although their relative ranking was uncertain. In India, a sex worker intervention would drive the epidemic to extinction. In Botswana none of the interventions alone would achieve this, although the prevalence of HIV would be reduced by almost 50%. Mother-to-child transmission programmes could reduce HIV transmission to infants, but would have no impact on the epidemic itself. In the long run, interventions targeting sexual transmission would be even more effective in reducing the number of HIV-infected children than mother-to-child transmission programmes. Antiretroviral therapy would prevent transmission in the short term, but eventually its effects would wane because of the development of drug resistance. CONCLUSION: Depending on the country and how the antiretroviral therapy was targeted, 25-100% of HIV cases would be drug- resistant after 30 years of use.

Using a sexually transmitted diseases simulation model (STDSIM), we made projections of HIV spread for four profiles of sexual behaviour reflecting patterns encountered across the developing world: 1) much commercial sex, no short relationships; 2) commercial sex, concurrent short relationships; 3) concurrent relationships, no commercial sex; 4) serial short relationships, some commercial sex. We studied the effects of increasing condom use in three target groups: commercial sex workers (CSWs); men engaging in commercial contacts and short relationships; and females in steady relationships. The projections indicated that the CSW and male strategies were more effective in reducing HIV incidence than the strategy focusing on females in steady relationships. In the long run, even the group of men and women with one recent partner were better protected against HIV infection by condom use in high-risk contacts than by condom use in steady relationships. Furthermore, the numbers of HIV cases prevented per condom used were 7 to 500 times higher for condoms used by CSWs or men engaging in short relationships and commercial sex than for ones used by females in steady relationships. The results indicated the merit of focusing on high-risk groups irrespective of the pattern of sexual behaviour, even in epidemics that had already spread throughout populations.

Objective To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved [...]

A survey study was carried out to estimate the total number of nets and insecticide treated nets (ITNs) available at the house-hold level in sub-Saharan Africa at risk of malaria and the number needed to achieve the 80% coverage target for children younger than 5 years and pregnant women. To achieve the targeted ITN usage rates, numbers of ITNs available to African households must be dramatically increased which would require coordination among donor agencies, public health officials, net manufacturers, and existing distributions systems to ensure timely delivery and retreatment to achieve the agreed targets.

We assessed the impact of HIV-1 on malaria in the sub-Saharan African population. Relative risks for malaria in HIV-infected persons, derived from literature review, were applied to the HIV-infected population [...]

A modeling study is conducted to explore whether differences between the study populations could explain the magnitude of the differences in observed trial impacts and to predict the effectiveness of each intervention strategy in leach population. The findings support the hypothesis that differences between study populations and not intervention strategy were the main determinants of the contrasting HIV impacts in Rakai, Masaka, and Mwanza.

Abstract Lives saved have become a standard metric to express health benefits across interventions and diseases. Recent estimates of malaria-attributable under-five deaths prevented using the Lives Saved tool (LiST), extrapolating effectiveness estimates from community-randomized trials of scale-up of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in the 1990s, confirm the substantial impact and good cost-effectiveness that ITNs have achieved in high-endemic sub-Saharan Africa. An even higher cost-effectiveness would likely have been found if the modelling had included the additional indirect mortality impact of ITNs on preventing deaths from other common child illnesses, to which malaria contributes as a risk factor. As conventional ITNs are being replaced by long-lasting insecticidal nets and scale-up is expanded to target universal coverage for full, all-age populations at risk, enhanced transmission reduction may--above certain thresholds--enhance the mortality impact beyond that observed in the trials of the 1990s. On the other hand, lives saved by ITNs might fall if improved malaria case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy averts the deaths that ITNs would otherwise prevent. Validation and updating of LiST's simple assumption of a universal, fixed coverage-to-mortality-reduction ratio will require enhanced national programme and impact monitoring and evaluation. Key indicators for time trend analysis include malaria-related mortality from population-based surveys and vital registration, vector control and treatment coverage from surveys, and parasitologically-confirmed malaria cases and deaths recorded in health facilities. Indispensable is triangulation with dynamic transmission models, fitted to long-term trend data on vector, parasite and human populations over successive phases of malaria control and elimination. Sound, locally optimized budget allocation including on monitoring and evaluation priorities will benefit much if policy makers and programme planners use planning tools such as LiST - even when predictions are less certain than often understood. The ultimate success of LiST for supporting malaria prevention may be to prove its linear predictions less and less relevant.