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The influence of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using dedicated climate model experiments with sea-surface temperature (SST) restoring. Partial SST restoring to climatology in the tropical Atlantic leads to slower decay of ENSO events and to a shift of the power spectrum to longer periods. Perfect model hindcast experiments with and without restoring tropical Atlantic SST to climatology indicate that both the northern tropical and equatorial Atlantic have a very small influence on ENSO development. During decaying ENSO events, on the other hand, northern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies strongly accelerate the decay. Key to the Atlantic influence on ENSO decay are Atlantic SST anomalies just north of the equator (~ 5°N). These lead to local convection anomalies that change the Walker circulation so as to accelerate ENSO decay. Importantly, anomalous events in either the northern tropical or equatorial Atlantic fail to develop in the hindcast ensemble mean, when tropical Pacific SSTs are restored to climatology. This indicates that anomalous tropical Atlantic events in boreal spring and summer are strongly dependent on preceding ENSO events in boreal winter. Thus, the role of the tropical Atlantic is to mediate a negative feedback of ENSO on itself. Despite this passive role of the tropical Atlantic in the Pacific-Atlantic interaction, accurate simulation of the Atlantic feedback should play some role in ENSO prediction. Further model experiments will be required to evaluate model dependence of these findings and to quantify the impact of the Atlantic on ENSO prediction skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put extratropical–tropical interactions into the context of historical events. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of observed ENSO, we use a fully coupled climate model to produce an ensemble of North Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies are restored back to observations in the North Pacific (>15°N) but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that the North Pacific SST has significantly influenced observed ENSO variability, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The connection between the North and tropical Pacific arises from two physical pathways: 1) a wind–evaporation–SST (WES) propagating mechanism, and 2) a Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall, which we refer to as the summer deep convection (SDC) response. The SDC response accounts for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial date line. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 El Niños. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific meridional mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20%, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015/16 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Asian monsoon region can persist through the post-ENSO summer, after the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific have dissipated. The long persistence of coherent post-ENSO anomalies is caused by a positive feedback due to interbasin ocean–atmospheric coupling, known as the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect, although the feedback mechanism itself does not necessarily rely on the antecedence of ENSO events, suggesting the potential for substantial internal variability independent of ENSO. To investigate the respective role of ENSO forcing and non-ENSO internal variability, we conduct ensemble "forecast" experiments with a full-physics, globally coupled atmosphere–ocean model initialized from a multidecadal tropical Pacific pacemaker simulation. The leading mode of internal variability as represented by the forecast-ensemble spread resembles the post-ENSO IPOC, despite the absence of antecedent ENSO forcing by design. The persistent atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the leading mode highlight the positive feedback mechanism in the internal variability. The large sample size afforded by the ensemble spread allows us to identify robust non-ENSO precursors of summer IPOC variability, including a cool SST patch over the tropical northwestern Pacific, a warming patch in the tropical North Atlantic, and downwelling oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean south of the equator. The pathways by which the precursors develop into the summer IPOC mode and the implications for improved predictability are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major El Niño of 2015/16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state's fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California's weak precipitation in 2015/16 relative to previous major El Niño events is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015/16 and previous strong El Niño events, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic. This SST pattern was missed by the majority of forecast models, which could partly explain their erroneous predictions of above-average precipitation in California in 2015/16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that no two El Niño episodes are the same; hence the predictable variations of the climate impacts associated with El Niño remain an open problem. Through an analysis of observational data and of large ensembles from six climate models forced by the observed time-varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs), this study raises the argument that the most fundamental predictable variations of boreal wintertime El Niño teleconnection patterns relate to the distinction between convective (EPC) and non-convective eastern Pacific (EPN) events. This distinction is a consequence of the nonlinear relationship between deep convection and eastern Pacific SSTs, and the transition to a convective eastern Pacific has a predictable relationship with local and tropical mean SSTs. Notable differences (EPC minus EPN) between the teleconnection patterns include positive precipitation differences over southern North America and northern Europe, positive temperature differences over northeast North America, and negative temperature differences over the Arctic. These differences are stronger and more statistically significant than the more common partitioning between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño. Most of the seasonal mean composite anomalies associated with EPN El Niño are not statistically significant owing to the weak SST forcing and small sample sizes; however, the EPN teleconnection is more robust on subseasonal timescales following periods when the EPN pattern of tropical convection is active. These findings suggest that the differences between EPC and EPN climate impacts are physically robust and potentially useful for intraseasonal forecasts for lead times of up to a few weeks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Ni˜no summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Ni˜no stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The Pacific-Japan ( PJ) pattern affects interannual variability in the East Asian and western North Pacific ( WNP) summer monsoons. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by a meridional dipole of anomalous circulation and precipitation between the tropical WNP and the midlatitudes. This study develops a long index of the PJ pattern using station-based atmospheric pressure data to track the PJ variability from 1897 to 2013. This index is correlated with a wide array of climate variables including air temperature, precipitation, Yangtze River flow, Japanese rice yield and the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the WNP (especially those that make landfall on the Chinese and Korean coast). For the recent three decades, the PJ index reproduces well-known correlations with El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) in the preceding boreal winter and Indian Ocean temperature in the concurrent summer. For the 117-year period, this ENSO-PJ relationship varies on interdecadal time scales, with low correlations in the 1920s and from the 1940s to 1970s, and recurrences of significant correlations at the beginning of the 20th century and the 1930s. In accordance with the modulation, the magnitude and regional climate effect of the PJ variability have changed. These results highlight the importance of interdecadal modulations of climate anomalies in the summer WNP and the need of long-term observations to study such modulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In northern Australia (NAUS), mean rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) season exhibits distinct interannual variability despite weak influence from tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigates mechanisms for the strong and persistent rainfall anomalies throughout the AUSM season. When the AUSM is stronger than normal, the low-level monsoonal circulation intensifies in response to the stronger convective activity over NAUS. The intensified surface westerlies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) enhance oceanic evaporation locally and downstream moisture transport into NAUS. This wind–evaporation feedback is verified through a moist static energy budget analysis. For this feedback to work effectively, SST cooling due to the stronger AUSM should be weak enough not to suppress the oceanic evaporation in the tropical SEIO. Our mixed layer heat budget analysis based on an ocean model hindcast experiment reveals that anomalous downwelling in the subsurface SEIO, which is induced dynamically by the intensified monsoon westerlies, partially offsets the SST cooling. The land surface evaporation over the continental inland area is also enhanced significantly in the middle and later portions of the monsoon season associated with increased soil moisture, suggesting its memory effect for the persistence of rainfall anomalies. The AUSM variability can therefore be regarded as a self-sustaining internal variability in the atmosphere–ocean–land surface coupled system, rather than just an atmospheric internal variability. Significance Statement: We aim to understand why summer monsoon rainfall in northern Australia varies markedly from one year to another even under the weak influence of large-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations, such as El Niño/La Niña. Our analyses based mainly on observational datasets reveal that wind-induced changes in oceanic evaporation south of Java significantly modulates the water vapor transport into northern Australia. We also find that ocean dynamics helps this wind–evaporation feedback process and continental soil moisture may act to prolong anomalous rainfall by its memory effect. This study shows the self-sustaining nature of the Australian summer monsoon variability under the atmosphere–ocean–land surface interactions, which deepens our understandings of the monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability of summer climate anomalies over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific is investigated using observations and a multimodel hindcast ensemble initialized on 1 May for the recent 20-30 yr. Summertime East Asia is under the influence of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (PASH). The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, a meridional dipole of sea level pressure variability, affects the northwestern PASH. The forecast models generally capture the association of the PJ pattern with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Silk Road pattern, a wave train along the summer Asian jet, is another dominant teleconnection that influences the northwestern PASH and East Asia. In contrast to the PJ pattern, observational analysis reveals a lack of correlations between the Silk Road pattern and ENSO. Coupled models cannot predict the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern, despite their ability to reproduce its spatial structure as the leading mode of atmospheric internal variability. Thus, the pattern is rather unpredictable at monthly to seasonal lead, limiting the seasonal predictability for summer in East Asia. The anomalous summer of 2010 in East Asia is a case in point, illustrating the interference by the Silk Road pattern. Canonical anomalies associated with a decayed El Niño and developing La Niña would have the PJ pattern bring a cold summer to East Asia in 2010. In reality, the Silk Road pattern overwhelmed this tendency, bringing a record-breaking hot summer instead. A dynamical model experiment indicates that European blocking was instrumental in triggering the Silk Road pattern in the 2010 summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summertime mei-yu-baiu rainband over East Asia displays considerable interannual variability. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis for interannual variability reveals that precipitation anomalies over the mei-yu-baiu region are accompanied by in situ anomalies of midtropospheric horizontal temperature advection. Anomalous warm (cool) advection causes increased (decreased) mei-yu-baiu precipitation locally by inducing adiabatic ascent (descent). The anomalous precipitation acts to reinforce the vertical motion, forming a feedback system. By this mechanism, the remotely forced anomalous atmospheric circulation can induce changes in mei-yu-baiu precipitation. The quasi-stationary precipitation anomalies induced by this mechanism are partially offset by transient eddies. The SVD analysis also reveals the association of mei-yu-baiu precipitation anomalies with several teleconnection patterns, suggesting remote induction mechanisms. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, which is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical western North Pacific, contributes to mei-yu-baiu precipitation variability throughout the boreal summer. The PJ pattern mediates influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in preceding boreal winter on mei-yu-baiu precipitation. In early summer, the leading covariability pattern between precipitation and temperature advection also features the Silk Road pattern-a wave train along the summertime Asian jet-and another wave train pattern to the north along the polar-front jet that often leads to the development of the surface Okhotsk high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A set of multimodel twentieth-century climate simulations for phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) is analyzed to assess the model reproducibility of the Pacific--Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern. It is the dominant low-frequency anomaly pattern over the summertime western North Pacific (WNP), characterized by a meridional dipole of zonally elongated vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere and by anomalous precipitation over the tropical WNP. Most of the models can reproduce the PJ pattern reasonably well as one of the leading anomaly patterns or their combination. The model reproducibility of the pattern tends to be higher for those models in which the climatological-mean state over the WNP is better reproduced. Furthermore, intermodel diversity in the summertime climatological-mean fields over the WNP, especially in the lower troposphere, is found to be large and projected most strongly onto the observed PJ pattern. Nevertheless, the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of these climatological-mean states is close to the observations. Projected future changes in the summertime climatological-mean state under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B also bear certain similarities with the PJ pattern, in a manner consistent with the aforementioned sensitivity of the model climate to that pattern. The MME projection indicates an overall increase in precipitation over the entire tropics, but it is overwhelmed locally by the effects of the enhanced tropospheric stratification over the tropical WNP. A resultant local reduction of the mean ascent is dynamically consistent with the anticyclonic projection around the Philippines and the cyclonic projection around Japan in MME, as in the observed anomalous dipole associated with the PJ pattern. However, the polarity and magnitude of the PJ-like projected change vary substantially from one model to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global survey is conducted for atmospheric anomaly patterns of meridional teleconnection over the summer hemisphere associated with anomalous tropical convection. The patterns may be akin to the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern analyzed in detail in the companion paper. From the survey, meridional teleconnections are identified over five regions, namely, the western North Pacific and Central/North America in boreal summer, as well as the western South Indian Ocean, central South Pacific, and western South Atlantic in austral summer. All of the patterns are observed in the western peripheries of the summertime surface subtropical anticyclones over the individual ocean basins. Although all of the patterns can convert available potential energy (APE) efficiently from the vertically sheared subtropical westerly jets, the efficiencies of barotropic energy conversion from the mean flow and diabatic APE generation differ from one pattern to another. Still, all of the patterns gain energy as the net, to maintain themselves against dissipative processes. Both the anomalous moisture convergence near the surface and the midtropospheric anomalous ascent required for the vorticity and thermal balance act to sustain the anomalous tropical convection, while the wind-evaporation feedback contributes positively only to the PJ pattern over the western North Pacific. Examination of common features and discrepancies among the five teleconnection patterns with respect to their structures and energetics reveals that climatological background features, including the largest horizontal extent of the Asian monsoon system and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, in addition to particularly high SST over the Pacific warm pool, render the PJ pattern an outstanding mode of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summertime atmospheric circulation over the midlatitude western North Pacific (WNP) is influenced by anomalous convective activity near the Philippines. This meridional teleconnection, observed in monthly anomalies and known as the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, is characterized by zonally elongated cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies around the enhanced convection center and to its northeast, respectively, in the lower troposphere, with an apparent poleward phase tilt with height. The authors' idealized two-layer linear model, whose basic state consists of a zonal subtropical jet and a pair of a monsoon system and a subtropical anticyclone, can simulate a PJ-like response against diabatic heating located between the pair. Each of the observed and simulated patterns can gain energy through barotropic and baroclinic conversions from the zonally varying baroclinic mean flow, in an efficiency comparable with that of energy generation due to the anomalous diabatic heating, indicating a characteristic of the pattern as a dry dynamical mode. In fact, the conversion efficiency is sensitive to the location of the anomaly pattern relative to the climatological-mean flow. Furthermore, the second-least damped mode identified in the idealized model bears certain resemblance with the observed PJ pattern, indicating its modal characteristics as well as a critical importance of these features in the mean field for the pattern. In addition to the PJ pattern, another meridional teleconnection pattern with high efficiency for its energy conversion is identified observationally in association with anomalous convection near the Bonin Islands. The anomalous circulation of the PJ pattern, in turn, can intensify the anomalous convective activity near the Philippines through enhancing evaporation and moisture convergence and dynamically inducing anomalous ascent. It is thus hypothesized that the PJ pattern can be regarded as a moist dynamical mode that sustains itself both via dry energy conversion and interaction with moist processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high‐emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December‐February relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes. Plain Language Summary: The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO surface temperature (TAS) and precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high‐emission future simulations from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are compared. Focusing on the season when ENSO typically peaks (December‐February), we find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately half of teleconnected regions relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level. This scaling of teleconnection changes with warming suggests that a lot of the changes to ENSO teleconnections can be avoided by minimizing future warming, or vice versa, larger year to year TAS and PR variability due to ENSO is likely to be experienced with strong future warming. Key Points: El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection changes are found over ∼50% of teleconnected regions in December‐February for the period 2081–2100, relative to 1950–2014The large majority of these projected teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occurENSO teleconnection changes largely scale with the projected warming level (i.e., higher warming leads to larger teleconnection changes) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalous convective activity in the tropics forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts significant remote influence that provides a basis for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. In austral summer, convective activity exhibits pronounced interannual variability over northern Australia (NAUS), which is, however, unlikely to be forced by SST anomalies; rather, it is essentially a manifestation of internal variability of the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) system. Based on observational data, the present study reveals its significant remote impacts on the wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific. The anomalous AUSM excites the western Pacific (WP) pattern, as confirmed through an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. Through this cross-equatorial teleconnection, the enhanced AUSM leads to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon with a colder winter over the Korean Peninsula and western Japan and reduced precipitation over southern China. The Okhotsk sea ice extent decreases under warm anomalies and weakened offshore winds. The weakened AUSM leads to the same anomalies but with the opposite polarities. Our observational data analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the WP-like anomalies are excited by the propagation of stationary Rossby waves generated by anomalous upper-level divergent wind from NAUS that extends into the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. The climatological Hadley circulation is essential in this process. The concomitant anomalous diabatic heating over East Asia and feedback forcing by transient eddies along the Pacific storm track act to further amplify the WP-like response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using sensitivity experiments with the SINTEX-F general circulation model with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) distributions based on observations for the period 1982–2018. In the control experiment (CTRL) observed SSTs are prescribed over the global oceans; in the sensitivity experiment observed SSTs are prescribed in the tropical Atlantic only, while in other regions the climatological annual cycle is prescribed. A composite analysis of the model output suggests that cold SST events in the northern tropical Atlantic during boreal spring are associated with near-surface wind changes over the equatorial and subtropical Pacific that are conducive to the development of El Niño, consistent with previous studies. The amplitude of these changes, however, is at most 20% of those observed during typical El Niño events. Likewise, warm events in the equatorial Atlantic produce only about 10% of the wind changes seen in the western equatorial Pacific during the developing phase of typical La Niña events. Similar results are obtained from a partial regression analysis performed on an ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations from phase 6 of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) although the equatorial Atlantic influence is stronger in AMIP. Further analysis of the AMIP models indicates that model biases do not have a major impact on the Atlantic-to-Pacific influence. Overall, the results suggest that the tropical Atlantic has a rather weak influence on ENSO development and mostly acts to modulate ongoing events rather than initiate them. Significance Statement: Previous work has suggested that year-to-year surface temperature variations in the tropical Atlantic can contribute to the development of so-called El Niño events, which are warm events in the equatorial Pacific with global impacts on climate and weather extremes. Here we use experiments with a global climate model as well as archived climate model simulations to quantify the tropical Atlantic influence and its importance for El Niño development. Our results suggest that the Atlantic can at most contribute 10%–20% to the development of El Niño, and that it should be seen more as modulating El Niño rather than initiating it. After accounting for different methodologies, our estimates are consistent with those of previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic temperature has increased about twice as fast as global mean surface temperature in recent decades. While anthropogenic influence on this Arctic warming is evident, potential contributions from internal climate variability remains to be examined. Svendsen et al. (2018) showed that Pacific decadal variability played a key role in the early twentieth century Arctic warming through a coupled model pacemaker experiments with historical forcing. It is still unclear, however, how much influence the Pacific internal variability induces on the Arctic and how this remote influence is conveyed. This study investigates the relationship between Arctic climate and tropical Pacific variability (TPV) by using a pre-industrial control experiment with GFDL CM2.1, with the primary aim to quantify the effect of TPV in different timescales. The result shows that the surface temperature response at high latitudes is amplified at multi-decadal timescales compared to sub-decadal one. The Arctic temperature anomalies peak near surface and diminishes with height. Moreover, Arctic temperature and sea ice responses feature strong seasonality with peak in late winter, despite weak seasonality of the tropical SST anomalies associated with decadal TPV. These features bear similarity to radiatively induced Arctic warming, and suggest importance of local feedbacks in Arctic climate variability driven remotely by the TPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put these extratropical-tropical interactions into the context of ENSO events in the historical record. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of historical ENSO events, we use a fully-coupled climate model to produce the first ensemble of North Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies in the North Pacific (>15˚N) are restored back to observations, but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that North Pacific SST variability has significantly influenced the observed trajectory of ENSO in the historical record, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The interaction between the North and tropical Pacific is primarily the result of two distinct physical pathways: 1. A Wind-Evaporation-SST propagating mechanism in boreal spring, and 2. A convection driven response associated with the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in boreal fall. The latter can account for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial dateline. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the failed 2014-2015 El Niño and the extreme 2015-2016 El Niño. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific Meridional Mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20% in boreal fall, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015-2016 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High‐latitude winter warming was observed following strong tropical volcanism, which has long been believed to be due to the volcanic‐induced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, recent works argue that this warming is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability instead of volcanoes. Moreover, some studies further argue that El Niño and volcanoes work together to produce this post‐volcanic NAO winter warming. To better understand these arguments on post‐volcanic high‐latitude winter warming, we conducted ENSO‐preconditioned volcanic experiments. Our simulations strongly suggest that the post‐eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post‐eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO‐preconditioned variability. Additionally, we find that the El Niño‐preconditioned volcanic eruption enhances the El Niño phase; however, the neutral and La Niña‐preconditioned eruptions do not lead to an ENSO–like response. These findings are helpful to better understand volcanic‐induced circulation impacts and have important implications for the interpretation of model results and post‐volcanic prediction. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) linkage to volcanism and associated post‐volcanic high‐latitude winter warming is a topic of great interest. However, the origin of this post‐volcanic winter warming is still controversial. Therefore, to resolve the controversies related to post‐volcanic ENSO and NAO variability and high‐latitude winter warming, we conducted a set of ENSO‐preconditioned volcanic experiments using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean model. The model simulations demonstrate that the post‐eruption high‐latitude Eurasian winter warming is mainly related to the post‐eruption positive NAO phase with no linkage to post‐volcanic ENSO variability. Moreover, the strong tropical volcanism initialized with the El Niño state enhances the El Niño phase, while the Neutral and La Niña initialized simulations do not lead to ENSO–like variability. These results strongly suggest that the high‐latitude post‐eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by NAO pressure changes during volcanism, and not due to strengthened ENSO responses to volcanism. Key Points: Volcano‐El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity experiments are conducted to better understand the source of post‐eruption northern hemisphere high‐latitude winter warmingWe found that the post‐eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by volcanic‐induced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)‐phase and not by ENSO teleconnectionCoexistence of El Niño with volcanism is not essential to produce volcanic‐induced positive NAO and associated winter warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northeastern Pacific climate system features an extensive low-cloud deck off California on the southeastern flank of the subtropical high that accompanies intense northeasterly trades and relatively low sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study assesses climatological impacts of the low-cloud deck and their seasonal differences by regionally turning on and off the low-cloud radiative effect in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The simulations demonstrate that the cloud radiative effect causes a local SST decrease of up to 3°C on an annual average with the response extending southwestward with intensified trade winds, indicative of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. This nonlocal wind response is strong in summer, when the SST decrease peaks due to increased shortwave cooling, and persists into autumn. In these seasons when the background SST is high, the lowered SST suppresses deep-convective precipitation that would otherwise occur in the absence of the low-cloud deck. The resultant anomalous diabatic cooling induces a surface anticyclonic response with the intensified trades that promote the WES feedback. Such seasonal enhancement of the atmospheric response does not occur without air–sea couplings. The enhanced trades accompany intensified upper-tropospheric westerlies, strengthening the vertical wind shear that, together with the lowered SST, acts to shield Hawaii from powerful hurricanes. On the basin scale, the anticyclonic surface wind response accelerates the North Pacific subtropical ocean gyre to speed up the Kuroshio by as much as 30%. SST thereby increases along the Kuroshio and its extension, intensifying upward turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to increase precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are a useful approach to understand the roles of forced responses and internal variability in historical and future climate change. Here, we produce one of the largest ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). The total experimental period of MIROC6-LE is longer than 76 000 years. MIROC6-LE consists of a long preindustrial control run, 50-member historical simulations, 8 single forcing historical experiments with 10 or 50 members, 5 future scenario experiments with 50 members and 3 single forcing future experiments with 50 members. Here, we describe the experimental design. The output data of most of the experiments are freely available to the public. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities. We also demonstrate some examples of initial analyses. Specifically, we confirm that the linear additivity of the forcing-response relationship holds for the 1850–2020 trends of the annual mean values and extreme indices of surface air temperature and precipitation by analyzing historical fully forced runs and the sum of single forced historical runs. To isolate historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme temperature for 2000–2020 relative to 1850–1900, ensemble sizes of 4 and 15, respectively, are sufficient in most of the world. Historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme precipitation are significant with the 50-member ensembles in 76 % and 69 % of the world, respectively. Fourteen members are sufficient to examine differences in changes in annual mean values and extreme indices of temperature and precipitation between the shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp), ssp585 and ssp126, in most of the world. Ensembles larger than 50 members are desirable for investigations of differences in annual mean and extreme precipitation changes between ssp126 and ssp119. Historical and future changes in internal variability, represented by departures from the ensemble mean, are analyzed with a focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global annual mean temperature and precipitation. An ensemble size of 31 is large enough to detect ENSO intensification from preindustrial conditions to 1951–2000, from 1951–2000 to 2051–2100 in all future experiments, and from low- to high-emission future scenario experiments. The single forcing historical experiments with 27 members can isolate ENSO intensification due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings. Future changes in the global mean temperature variability are discernible with 23 members under all future experiments, while 50 members are not sufficient for detecting changes in the global mean precipitation variability in ssp119 and ssp126. We also confirm that these temperature and precipitation variabilities are not precisely analyzed when detrended anomalies from the long-term averages are used due to interannual climate responses to the historical natural forcing, which highlights the importance of large ensembles for assessing internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a prominent mode of atmospheric variability that influences weather and climate, including the occurrence of extreme events, over a large part of Europe and Northeastern America. The NAO has been considered to be maintained primarily by migratory weather disturbances and to have a deep structure with no vertical tilt. A careful inspection nonetheless reveals that the associated anomalies do exhibit a subtle vertical tilt, but its dynamical implications are still unknown. Here we show that this vertical tilt is of vital dynamical significance for the wintertime NAO. We find, using atmospheric reanalysis data, that the tilted anomalies transport heat across the pronounced thermal gradient associated with a background westerly jetstream, advecting air from the cooler North America and Greenland to the warmer Atlantic, thereby acting to reinforce NAO's thermal anomalies. The resultant conversion of potential energy from the background state is a larger energy source for maintaining the NAO than the feedback from migratory disturbances. Our findings thus uncover a fundamental mechanism of the NAO dynamics, with implications for the improvement of seasonal predictions for the Euro-Atlantic climate and the representation of the NAO variability in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional ocean–atmospheric interactions in the summer tropical Indo–northwest Pacific region are investigated using a tropical Pacific Ocean–global atmosphere pacemaker experiment with a coupled ocean–atmospheric model (cPOGA) and a parallel atmosphere model simulation (aPOGA) forced with sea surface temperature (SST) variations from cPOGA. Whereas the ensemble mean features pronounced influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ensemble spread represents internal variability unrelated to ENSO. By comparing the aPOGA and cPOGA, this study examines the effect of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the ENSO-unrelated variability. In boreal summer, ocean–atmosphere coupling induces local positive feedback to enhance the variance and persistence of the sea level pressure and rainfall variability over the northwest Pacific and likewise induces local negative feedback to suppress the variance and persistence of the sea level pressure and rainfall variability over the north Indian Ocean. Anomalous surface heat fluxes induced by internal atmosphere variability cause SST to change, and SST anomalies feed back onto the atmosphere through atmospheric convection. The local feedback is sensitive to the background winds: positive under the mean easterlies and negative under the mean westerlies. In addition, north Indian Ocean SST anomalies reinforce the low-level anomalous circulation over the northwest Pacific through atmospheric Kelvin waves. This interbasin interaction, along with the local feedback, strengthens both the variance and persistence of atmospheric variability over the northwest Pacific. The response of the regional Indo–northwest Pacific mode to ENSO and influences on the Asian summer monsoon are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Atlantic Niño over the past 113 years is investigated by comparing multi-year and single-year ENSO events. Multi-year ENSO events sustain an anomalous zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial western to central Pacific even during boreal spring and summer. This SST gradient is coupled with an anomalous Walker circulation and atmospheric deep convection through the Bjerknes feedback. During multi-year La Niñas, for example, a strengthened Pacific Walker circulation extends into the tropical Atlantic in boreal spring, a season when both the Pacific and Atlantic intertropical convergence zones become more symmetric about the equator. As a result, surface westerly wind anomalies appear over the equatorial Atlantic, triggering an Atlantic Niño. By contrast, such a teleconnection is not found in the spring following the peak of single-year ENSO events. A Pacific pacemaker model experiment reproduces the observed atmospheric response and its impact on the Atlantic Niño, further supporting the importance of prolonged ENSO forcing. The contrasting influence of multi-year and single-year events explains the fragile relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic Niño. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the leading EOF mode (EOF-1) for the spring tropical western to central Pacific SST anomalies captures the characteristics of multi-year ENSO events. EOF-1 is highly correlated with the summer Atlantic Niño over the past 113 years while the Niño-3 SST is not. These correlations indicate that ocean–atmosphere coupling in the equatorial western to central Pacific plays a major role in shaping ENSO teleconnections in boreal spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic aerosols partially mask the greenhouse warming and cause the reduction in Asian summer monsoon precipitation and circulation. By decomposing the atmospheric change into the direct atmospheric response to radiative forcing and sea surface temperature (SST)-mediated change, the physical mechanisms for anthropogenic-aerosol-induced changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) are diagnosed. Using coupled and atmospheric general circulation models, this study shows that the aerosol-induced troposphere cooling over Asian land regions generates anomalous sinking motion between 20° and 40°N and weakens the EASM north of 20°N without SST change. The decreased EASM precipitation and the attendant wind changes are largely due to this direct atmospheric response to radiative forcing, although the aerosol-induced North Pacific SST cooling also contributes. The SST-mediated change dominates the aerosol-induced SASM response, with contributions from both the north–south interhemispheric SST gradient and the local SST cooling pattern over the tropical Indian Ocean. Specifically, with large meridional gradient, the zonal-mean SST cooling pattern is most important for the Asian summer monsoon response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing, resulting in a reorganization of the regional meridional atmospheric overturning circulation. While uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing has been emphasized in the literature, our results show that the intermodel spread is as large in the SST effect on summer monsoon rainfall, calling for more research into the ocean–atmosphere coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific (north of 20°N). Its South Pacific counterpart (south of 20°S) is the South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO). The effects of tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) SST forcing and internal atmospheric variability are investigated for both the PDO and SPDO using a 10-member ensemble tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment. Each member is forced by the historical radiative forcing and observed SST anomalies in the TEP region. Outside the TEP region, the ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled and freely evolve. The TEP-forced PDO (54% variance) and SPDO (46% variance) are correlated in time and exhibit a symmetric structure about the equator, driven by the Pacific–North American (PNA) and Pacific–South American teleconnections, respectively. The internal PDO resembles the TEP-forced component but is related to internal Aleutian low (AL) variability associated with the Northern Hemisphere annular mode and PNA pattern. The internal variability is locally enhanced by barotropic energy conversion in the westerly jet exit region around the Aleutians. By contrast, barotropic energy conversion is weak associated with the internal SPDO, resulting in weak geographical preference of sea level pressure variability. Therefore, the internal SPDO differs from the TEP-forced component, featuring SST anomalies along ~60°S in association with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. The limitations on isolating the internal component from observations are discussed. Specifically, internal PDO variability appears to contribute significantly to the North Pacific regime shift in the 1940s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study discusses the impact of the Pacific--Japan (PJ) pattern on Indian summermonsoon (ISM) rainfall and its possible physical linkages through coupled and uncoupled pathways. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of 850-hPa relative vorticity over the western North Pacific (WNP) is used to extract the PJ pattern as the leading mode of circulation variability. The partial correlation analysis of the leading principal component reveals that the positive PJ pattern, which features anticyclonic and cyclonic low-level circulation anomalies over the tropical WNP and around Japan respectively, enhances the rainfall over the southern and northern parts of India. The northwestward propagating Rossby waves, in response to intensified convection over the Maritime Continent reinforced by low-level convergence in the southern flank of westward extended tropical WNP anticyclone, increase rainfall over southern peninsular India. Meanwhile, the anomalous moisture transport from the warm Bay of Bengal due to anomalous southerlies at the western edge of the low-level anticyclone extending from the tropicalWNPhelps to enhance the rainfall over northern India. The atmospheric general circulationmodel forced with climatological sea surface temperature confirms this atmospheric pathway through the westward propagating Rossby waves. Furthermore, the north Indian Ocean (NIO) warming induced by easterly wind anomalies along the southern periphery of the tropicalWNP--NIO anticyclone enhances local convection, which in turn feeds back to theWNPconvection anomalies. This coupled nature via interbasin feedback between the PJ pattern andNIO is confirmed using coupled model sensitivity experiments. These results are important in identifying new sources of ISM variability/predictability on the interannual time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Pacific exhibits decadal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability, characterized by meridionally broad sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. In this study, we focus on the variability in the equatorial Pacific band (5°S–5°N), termed equatorial Pacific decadal variability (EPDV). While it is known that ocean dynamics plays an essential role in EPDV, the simulations by air-sea thermodynamically coupled slab ocean models (SOM) obscure the nature of the role of ocean dynamics. To confront this issue, we use a mechanically decoupled simulation, which isolates the effects of thermodynamic coupling processes and mean ocean circulation on EPDV. Thus, by comparing the simulation to a SOM, we investigate the role of mean ocean circulation and show that it plays a role in damping EPDV, primarily through mean equatorial Pacific upwelling. By comparing the simulation to a fully coupled dynamic ocean model (DOM), we examine the role of anomalous wind-driven ocean circulation and demonstrate that it plays a role in amplifying EPDV. Further, this amplification strength overwhelms the upwelling damping effect, resulting in the anomalous wind-driven ocean circulation forcing EPDV. Finally, we examine the origin of EPDV in the DOM and show that it originates from a zonal dipole mode in the tropical Pacific, which is strongly associated with decadal modulation of ENSO amplitude. Taking EPDV as an example, our study advances the understanding of the two distinct dynamical systems (SOM and DOM), benefiting the physical interpretation of other climate variabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic summer sea ice area has been rapidly decreasing in recent decades. In addition to this trend, substantial interannual variability is present, as is highlighted by the recovery in sea ice area in 2013 following the record minimum in 2012. This interannual variability of the Arctic summer sea ice area has been attributed to the springtime weather disturbances. Here, by utilizing reanalysis- and satellite-based sea ice data, this study shows that summers with unusually small sea ice area are preceded by winters with anomalously strong downward longwave radiation over the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean. This anomalous wintertime radiative forcing at the surface is up to 10-15 W m−2, which is about twice as strong than that during the spring. During the same winters, the poleward moisture and warm-air intrusions into the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean are anomalously strong and the resulting moisture convergence field closely resembles positive anomalies in column-integrated water vapor and tropospheric temperature. Climate model simulations support the above-mentioned findings and further show that the anomalously strong wintertime radiative forcing can decrease sea ice thickness over wide areas of the Arctic Ocean, especially over the Eurasian sector. During the winters preceding the anomalously small summer sea ice area, the upper ocean of the model is anomalously warm over the Barents Sea, indicating that the upper-ocean heat content contributes to winter sea ice thinning. Finally, mass divergence by ice drift in the preceding winter and spring contributes to the thinning of sea ice over the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas, where radiative forcing and upper-ocean heat content anomalies are relatively weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) impacts tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variations, which in turn affect the PMM through the excited atmospheric teleconnections. Previous studies linked this loop to the tropical Pacific‐excited North Pacific Oscillation (NPO; the second empirical mode of North Pacific sea level pressure variability), while a recent study proposed the linkage to the excited Aleutian low (AL) variability (the first empirical mode). Unraveling their relative importance for the loop is thus crucial for better understanding subtropical‐tropical interactions. Here, using tropical Pacific pacemaker experiments we show that tropical Pacific‐forced AL variability is tied to the loop, while the tropical Pacific‐forced NPO does not effectively induce PMM variability, hence not being in the loop. Our study emphasizes the role of tropical Pacific‐forced AL variability in the PMM‐tropical Pacific interaction, which should be paid more attention in future studies. Plain Language Summary: The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is a prominent pattern of climate variability situated in the subtropical northeastern Pacific. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the PMM can propagate into the deep tropics via a feedback process involving the coupling between wind, evaporation, and SST. In the tropics, these SST anomalies can induce a response of the extratropical atmospheric circulation—so‐called teleconnections—which in turn can induce PMM variability via the effect of this anomalous atmospheric circulation on surface heat fluxes in the subtropics. Previous studies linked the tropical‐to‐subtropical teleconnection in this loop to the second leading statistical pattern of North Pacific atmospheric variability—the so‐called North Pacific Oscillation. However, a recent study pointed out that this tropical‐to‐subtropical teleconnection is also associated with prominent anomalies of the Aleutian low (AL)—the first leading statistical pattern of North Pacific atmospheric variability. To reveal which dominant pattern of atmospheric variability is primarily tied to the teleconnection, we quantify their relative role in causing PMM variability based on climate model simulations. We find that AL variability plays the key role in linking the tropics with the subtropics. Key Points: Internal Aleutian low (AL) variability is displaced northward compared to tropically forced AL variability, thus ineffectively forcing the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)Internal North Pacific Oscillation and North Pacific Tripole variabilities are stronger than their tropical Pacific‐driven counterparts, hence contributing to forcing the PMMTropical Pacific‐driven AL variability links the interaction between the PMM and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To elucidate the unique seasonality in the coupled system of the subtropical Mascarene high and low-level clouds, the present study compares wintertime cloud radiative impacts on the high with their summertime counterpart through coupled and atmospheric general circulation model simulations. A comparison of a fully coupled control simulation with another simulation in which the radiative effects of low-level clouds are artificially switched off demonstrates that the low-cloud effect on the formation of the Mascarene high is much weaker in winter. Background climatology plays an important role in this seasonality of the Mascarene high reinforcement. Relative to summer, the suppression of deep convection due to low-level clouds that acts to reinforce the high is much weaker in winter. This arises from 1) seasonally lower sea surface temperature in concert with the smaller sea surface temperature reduction due to the deeper ocean mixed layer and the weaker cloud radiative effect under weaker insolation and 2) seasonally stronger subtropical subsidence associated with the Hadley circulation in winter. As verified through atmospheric dynamical model experiments, enhanced cloud-top radiative cooling by low-level clouds acts to reinforce the wintertime Mascarene high in comparable magnitude as in summer. The present study reveals that the self-sustaining feedback with low-level clouds alone is insufficient for replenishing the full strength of the wintertime Mascarene high. This implies that another internal feedback pathway and/or external driver must be operative in maintaining the wintertime high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual-mean tropospheric circulation change in global warming is studied by comparing the response of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to a spatial-uniform sea surface temperature (SST) increase (SUSI) with the response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM to increased greenhouse gas concentrations following the A1B scenario. In both simulations, tropospheric warming follows the moist adiabat in the tropics, and static stability increases globally in response to SST warming. A diagnostic framework is developed based on a linear baroclinic model (LBM) of the atmosphere. The mean advection of stratification change (MASC) by climatological vertical motion, often neglected in interannual variability, is an important thermodynamic term for global warming. Once MASC effect is included, LBM shows skills in reproducing GCM results by prescribing latent heating diagnosed from the GCMs. MASC acts to slow down the tropical circulation. This is most clear in the SUSI run where the Walker circulation slows down over the Pacific without any change in SST gradient. MASC is used to decelerate the Hadley circulation, but spatial patterns of SST warming play an important role. Specifically, the SST warming is greater in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere, an interhemispheric asymmetry that decelerates the Hadley cell north, but accelerates it south of the equator. The MASC and SST-pattern effects are on the same order of magnitude in our LBM simulations. The former is presumably comparable across GCMs, while SST warming patterns show variations among models in both shape and magnitude. Uncertainties in SST patterns account for intermodel variability in Hadley circulation response to global warming (especially on and south of the equator). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating Pacific meridional modes (PMMs) without the influence of tropical Pacific variability is technically difficult if based on observations or fully coupled model simulations due to their overlapping spatial structures. To confront this issue, the present study investigates both the North PMM (NPMM) and South PMM (SPMM) in terms of their associated atmospheric forcing and response processes based on a mechanically decoupled climate model simulation. In this experiment, the climatological wind stress is prescribed over the tropical Pacific, which effectively removes dynamically coupled tropical Pacific variability (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Interannual NPMM in this experiment is forced not only by the North Pacific Oscillation but also by a North Pacific tripole (NPT) pattern of atmospheric internal variability, which primarily forces decadal NPMM variability. Interannual and decadal variability of the SPMM is partly forced by the South Pacific Oscillation. In turn, both interannual and decadal NPMM variability can excite atmospheric teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics by influencing the meridional displacement of the climatological intertropical convergence zone throughout the whole year. Similarly, both interannual and decadal SPMM variability can also excite atmospheric teleconnections over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics by extending or shrinking the climatological South Pacific convergence zone in all seasons. Our results highlight a new poleward pathway by which both the NPMM and SPMM feed back to the extratropical climate, in addition to the equatorward influence on tropical Pacific variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the south Indian Ocean, the coupled system of the subtropical Mascarene high and low-level clouds exhibits marked seasonality. To investigate this seasonality, the present study assesses radiative impacts of low-level clouds on the summertime Mascarene high with a coupled general circulation model. Comparison between a fully coupled control simulation and a "no-low-cloud simulation," where the radiative effects of low-level clouds are artificially turned off, demonstrates that they act to reinforce the Mascarene high. Their impacts are so significant that the summertime Mascarene high almost disappears in the no-low-cloud experiment, suggesting their essential role in the existence of the summertime Mascarene high. As the primary mechanism, lowered sea surface temperature by the cloud albedo effect suppresses deep convective precipitation, inducing a Matsuno–Gill type response that reinforces the high, as verified through an atmospheric dynamical model diagnosis. Associated reduction of high-top clouds, as well as increased low-level clouds, augments in-atmosphere radiative cooling, which further reinforces the high. The present study reveals that low-level clouds constitute a tight positive feedback system with the subtropical high via sea surface temperature over the summertime south Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an eastern tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment called the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) run, this study investigated the internal variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) and its impacts on the assessment of long-term trends. By constraining the eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability with observations, the POGA experiment successfully simulated the observed variability of SSS. The long-term trend in POGA SSS shows a general pattern of salty regions becoming saltier (e.g., the northern Atlantic) and fresh regions becoming fresher, which agrees with previous studies. The 1950–2012 long-term trend in SSS is modulated by the internal variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Due to this variability, there are some regional discrepancies in the SSS 1950–2012 long-term change between POGA and the free-running simulation forced with historical radiative forcing, especially for the western tropical Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean. Our analysis shows that the tropical Pacific cooling and intensified Walker circulation caused the SSS to increase in the western tropical Pacific and decrease in the southeastern Indian Ocean during the 20-yr period of 1993–2012. This decadal variability has led to large uncertainties in the estimation of radiative-forced trends on a regional scale. For the 63-yr period of 1950–2012, the IPO caused an offset of ~40% in the radiative-forced SSS trend in the western tropical Pacific and ~170% enhancement in the trend in the southeastern Indian Ocean. Understanding and quantifying the contribution of internal variability to SSS trends helps improve the skill for estimates and prediction of salinity/water cycle changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic aerosols, concentrated largely in the Northern Hemisphere, not only affect the local climate but also induce pronounced changes in atmospheric circulation that extend into the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In coupled historical single‐forcing simulations, aerosol forcing induces a deceleration of both the subpolar jet (SPJ) and the subtropical jet (STJ) in SH in austral winter. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments indicate that the STJ is weakened by an interhemisphere gradient in the zonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and an anomalous cross‐equatorial Hadley circulation, while the SPJ response shares similar feedbacks with the greenhouse gas forcing. Specifically, atmospheric eddy adjustments are important for the SPJ change. The atmospheric response unique to anthropogenic aerosol forcing (e.g., cross‐equatorial Hadley cell and the weakened SH STJ) can be exploited for climate change attribution. Plain Language Summary: Anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere caused not only severe local air pollution but also atmospheric circulation changes as far away as in the Southern Hemisphere. Climatologically, the Southern Hemisphere westerlies show significant seasonal variation; the subtropical jet dominates the upper troposphere during austral winter but diminishes in austral summer. In contrast, the subpolar jet is zonally symmetric and strong in austral summer, but it weakens and exists only over the South Pacific in austral winter. The present study examines austral winter Southern Hemisphere subpolar and subtropical jet responses to historical aerosol forcing over the past century in climate model simulations. Results show that the subpolar and subtropical jets both weaken with little shift in latitudinal position. By reflecting the solar irradiation, the aerosols reduce the sea surface temperature more in the Northern than the Southern Hemisphere. We demonstrate that the hemispheric contrast in the sea surface temperature change induces an anomalous interhemispheric overturning circulation that slows the subtropical jet. Greenhouse gas forcing also influences the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, but with distinct spatial patterns and mechanisms compared to anthropogenic aerosols. Key Points: The Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation change is identified in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcingThe aerosol forcing weakens the subtropical jet and strengthens the subpolar jet due to the interhemisphere asymmetric SST responseThe spatially uniform cooling effect of aerosols induces a subpolar and subtropical jet change similar to the GHG effect with sign reversed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), the second leading atmospheric mode in the North Pacific Ocean, is known to be responsible for climate variability and extremes in adjacent regions. The reproducibility of the NPO in climate models is thus a topic of interest for the more accurate prediction of climate extremes. By investigating the spatial characteristics of the NPO in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study reveals the intimate relationship between the NPO structure and the atmospheric mean states over the North Pacific. The majority of the models reasonably capture the meridional contrast of pressure anomalies, but the detailed horizontal characteristics of the NPO are found to differ among the models. Diagnostic analysis of 30 climate models and long-term observations suggest that systematic bias in the mean atmospheric baroclinicity over the North Pacific crucially affects the horizontal shape and zonal position of the NPO. In the models in which the climatological continental trough over the western North Pacific extends farther to the east, the NPO tends to be simulated farther to the east, strengthening its impact on the downstream climate. In contrast, when the climatological continental trough is reduced in size toward the west, the growth of the NPO is limited to the west, and its influence is weakened downstream. This relationship can be understood via the altered available potential and kinetic energy conversions that feed the total energy of the NPO, primarily stemming from the difference in the mean horizontal temperature gradient and stretching deformation of the mean horizontal wind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces the Extratropical–Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (ETIN-MIP), where a set of fully coupled model experiments are designed to examine the sources of longstanding tropical precipitation biases in climate models. In particular, we reduce insolation over three targeted latitudinal bands of persistent model biases: the southern extratropics, the southern tropics, and the northern extratropics. To address the effect of regional energy bias corrections on the mean distribution of tropical precipitation, such as the double intertropical convergence zone problem, we evaluate the quasi-equilibrium response of the climate system corresponding to a 50-yr period after the 100 years of prescribed energy perturbation. Initial results show that, despite a large intermodel spread in each perturbation experiment due to differences in ocean heat uptake response and climate feedbacks across models, the southern tropics is most efficient at driving a meridional shift of tropical precipitation. In contrast, the extratropical energy perturbations are effectively damped by anomalous heat uptake over the subpolar oceans, thereby inducing a smaller meridional shift of tropical precipitation compared with the tropical energy perturbations. The ETIN-MIP experiments allow us to investigate the global implications of regional energy bias corrections, providing a route to guide the practice of model development, with implications for understanding dynamical responses to anthropogenic climate change and geoengineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental records show multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the 20th century. This variability is thought to be caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance is not clear. Since decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to 'hiatuses' and accelerated warming trends in global temperatures, we hypothesize that the Pacific could also impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing 20th century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): one fully coupled ensemble and one ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that decadal variability in the tropical and extratropical Pacific contributed to ~50% of the observed Arctic warming during the early 20th century, and we identify a mechanism for this connection involving both horizontal advection in the lower troposphere and adiabatic heating through a stratospheric pathway, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This Pacific-Arctic teleconnection is detected across the 20th century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing. Our results also indicate that warming in the Atlantic could have compensated for the cooling Pacific at the turn of the century, leading to a continued Arctic warming trend. In addition, we compare these results with pre-industrial control simulations as well as multi-model SST pacemaker experiments in which interannual and decadal SST variability in the tropical Pacific is forced to follow observations. The multi-model analysis shows robust influence from the Pacific to the Arctic. However, the magnitude of the Arctic response to Pacific variability differs among models and we speculate that the Pacific-Arctic link is sensitive to the location of the climatological Aleutian Low. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which examines the contributions of anthropogenic warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on record low sunshine over Japan during August 2017. It suggests that the persistent cold inflow along the anomalous cyclone over Japan, simultaneously induced by extraordinary development of the Okhotsk high, attributed to the prolonged low sunshine. The link of anthropogenic warming to increased probability of extremely enhanced anticyclones is noted.

Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a ten-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of the observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. Both ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic Modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Notable biases exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by 1 month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. This suggests the importance of NAO in setting the seasonality of NTAM and of the extratropical-tropical teleconnection. The simulated NTAM is closely related to the Atlantic Niño in the subsequent summer, a relationship not so obvious in observations. Local variability, represented by the preseason NAO and SST persistence, contributes considerably to NTAM variability. Including these two indicators, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of NTAM. The South Tropical Atlantic Mode can be forced by ENSO, and a cross-equatorial dipole is triggered by ENSO instead of local air-sea coupling within the tropical Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A robust decadal Indian Ocean dipolar variability (DIOD) is identified in observations and found to be related to tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV). A Pacific Ocean-global atmosphere (POGA) experiment, with fixed radiative forcing, is conducted to evaluate the DIOD variability and its relationship with the TPDV. In this experiment, the sea surface temperature anomalies are restored to observations over the tropical Pacific, but left as interactive with the atmosphere elsewhere. The TPDV-forced DIOD, represented as the ensemble mean of 10 simulations in POGA, accounts for one third of the total variance. The forced DIOD is triggered by anomalous Walker circulation in response to the TPDV and develops following Bjerknes feedback. Thermocline anomalies do not exhibit a propagating signal, indicating an absence of oceanic planetary wave adjustment in the subtropical Indian Ocean. The DIOD-TPDV correlation differs among the 10 simulations, with a low correlation corresponding to a strong internal DIOD independent of the TPDV. The variance of this internal DIOD depends on the background state in the Indian Ocean, modulated by the thermocline depth off Sumatra/Java. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A spurious band of enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variance (SBEV) is identified over the northern equatorial Atlantic in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Climate Model, version 2.1. The SBEV is especially pronounced in boreal spring owing to the combined effect of both anomalous atmospheric thermal forcing and oceanic vertical upwelling. The SBEV is a common bias in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), found in 14 out of 23 models. The SBEV in CMIP5 is associated with the atmospheric thermal forcing and the oceanic vertical upwelling, similar to GFDL CM2.1. While the tropical North Atlantic variability is only weakly correlated with the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) in observations, the SBEV in CMIP5 produces conditions that drive and intensify the AZM variability via triggering the Bjerknes feedback. This partially explains why AZM is strong in some CMIP5 models even though the equatorial cold tongue and easterly trades are biased low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the relative contributions to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks internal to the Indian Ocean. The ENSO forcing and internal variability is extracted by conducting a 10-member coupled simulation for 1950-2012 where sea surface temperature (SST) is restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but interactive with the atmosphere over the rest of the World Ocean. In these experiments, the ensemble mean is due to ENSO forcing and the intermember difference arises from internal variability of the climate system independent of ENSO. These elements contribute one-third and two-thirds of the total IOD variance, respectively. Both types of IOD variability develop into an east-west dipole pattern because of Bjerknes feedback and peak in September-November. The ENSO forced and internal IOD modes differ in several important ways. The forced IOD mode develops in August with a broad meridional pattern and eventually evolves into the Indian Ocean basin mode, while the internal IOD mode grows earlier in June, is more confined to the equator, and decays rapidly after October. The internal IOD mode is more skewed than the ENSO forced response. The destructive interference of ENSO forcing and internal variability can explain early terminating IOD events, referred to as IOD-like perturbations that fail to grow during boreal summer. The results have implications for predictability. Internal variability, as represented by preseason sea surface height anomalies off Sumatra, contributes to predictability considerably. Including this indicator of internal variability, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of IOD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface warming in recent decades has been most rapid in the Arctic, especially during the winter. Here, by utilizing global reanalysis and satellite datasets, it is shown that the northward flux of moisture into the Arctic during the winter strengthens the downward infrared radiation (IR) by 30-40 W m−2 over 1-2 weeks. This is followed by a decline of up to 10% in sea ice concentration over the Greenland, Barents, and Kara Seas. A climate model simulation indicates that the wind-induced sea ice drift leads the decline of sea ice thickness during the early stage of the strong downward IR events, but that within one week the cumulative downward IR effect appears to be dominant. Further analysis indicates that strong downward IR events are preceded several days earlier by enhanced convection over the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. This finding suggests that sea ice predictions can benefit from an improved understanding of tropical convection and ensuing planetary wave dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June-August) have been identified: the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipated in the latter half of twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario: 1) significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific-North America and North Atlantic-Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily over the past century, but the overall pattern contains extensive and often uncertain spatial variations, with potentially important effects on regional precipitation. Observations suggest a slowdown of the zonal atmospheric overturning circulation above the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Walker circulation) over the twentieth century. Although this change has been attributed to a muted hydrological cycle forced by global warming, the effect of SST warming patterns has not been explored and quantified. Here we perform experiments using an atmospheric model, and find that SST warming patterns are the main cause of the weakened Walker circulation over the past six decades (1950-2009). The SST trend reconstructed from bucket-sampled SST and night-time marine surface air temperature features a reduced zonal gradient in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, a change consistent with subsurface temperature observations. Model experiments with this trend pattern robustly simulate the observed changes, including the Walker circulation slowdown and the eastward shift of atmospheric convection from the Indonesian maritime continent to the central tropical Pacific. Our results cannot establish whether the observed changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic global warming, but they do show that the observed slowdown in the Walker circulation is presumably driven by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall performance of general circulation models is often investigated on the basis of the synthesis of a number of scalar performance metrics of individual models that measure the reproducibility of diverse aspects of the climate. Because of physical and dynamic constraints governing the climate, a model's performance in simulating a certain aspect of the climate is sometimes related closely to that in simulating another aspect, which results in significant intermodel correlation between performance metrics. Numerous metrics and intermodel correlations may cause a problem in understanding the evaluation and synthesizing the metrics. One possible way to alleviate this problem is to group the correlated metrics beforehand. This study attempts to use simple cluster analysis to group 43 performance metrics. Two clustering methods, the K-means and the Ward methods, yield considerably similar clustering results, and several aspects of the results are found to be physically and dynamically reasonable. Furthermore, the intermodel correlation between the cluster averages is considerably lower than that between the metrics. These results suggest that the cluster analysis is helpful in obtaining the appropriate grouping. Applications of the clustering results are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]