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UNLABELLED: The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1

Impact microindentation (IMI) is a minimally invasive technique that allows the assessment of bone material strength index (BMSi) in vivo, by measuring the depth of a micron-sized, spherical tip into cortical bone that is then indexed to the depth of the tip into a reference material. In this study, we aimed to assess the practicality of its application in 99 women aged 42-84 yr from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Impact microindentation was performed in the mid-shaft of the right tibia using the OsteoProbe. Immediately following measurement, each participant was requested to rate on a Visual Analogue Scale [0-10] the level of discomfort anticipated and experienced, any initial reluctance towards the measurement and whether they were willing to repeat the measurement. Of 99 potential participants who attended this assessment phase, 55 underwent IMI measurement. Reasons for non-measurement in 44 women were existing skin conditions (n = 8, 18.2 %) and excessive soft tissue around mid-tibial region (n = 32, 72.2 %). An additional four (9.1 %) participants did not provide any reasons for declining. For 55 participants who had underwent IMI, the expectation for pain when briefed about the procedure was low (2.28 ± 2.39), as was pain experienced during the measurement (0.72 ± 1.58). Participants were not reluctant to undergo the measurement (0.83 ± 1.67), and all indicated a willingness to repeat the measurement. Results of this study showed that the IMI technique is well tolerated and accepted by women participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, suggesting that the technique shows promise in a research or clinical setting.

Components of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) are present on bone cells. One measure of RAAS activity, the aldosterone-renin-ratio (ARR), is used to screen for primary aldosteronism. Associations between ARR and bone mineral density are conflicting. This study investigated associations between ARR and peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and impact microindentation (IMI). Male participants (n = 431) were from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. "Likely" primary aldosteronism was defined as ARR ≥ 70 pmol/mIU. Another group, "possible" primary aldosteronism, was defined as either ARR ≥ 70 pmol/mIU or taking a medication that affects the RAAS, but not a beta blocker, and renin < 15 mU/L. Using pQCT, images at 4% and 66% of radial (n = 365) and tibial (n = 356) length were obtained. Using IMI measurements, bone material strength index (BMSi; n = 332) was determined. Associations between ARR or likely/possible primary aldosteronism and IMI or pQCT-derived bone parameters were tested using median regression. ARR and aldosterone values were not associated with any of the pQCT-derived bone variables in either unadjusted or adjusted analyses. Men with likely primary aldosteronism (n = 16), had lower adjusted total bone area (radial 66% site, - 12.5%). No associations were observed for men with possible primary aldosteronism (unadjusted or adjusted). No associations with BMSi were observed (p > 0.05). There were no associations between ARR or aldosterone and pQCT-derived bone parameters. Men with likely primary aldosteronism had lower bone area, suggesting clinically high levels of ARR may have a negative impact on bone health.

OBJECTIVE: Although negative back beliefs are associated with high-intensity low back pain (LBP)/disability, whether they influence incident high-intensity LBP/high-disability over the long-term is unknown. This study aimed to investigate whether negative back beliefs were associated with developing high-intensity LBP and/or high-disability over 10 years in men. METHODS: Men with no or low-intensity LBP and/or disability attending the Geelong Osteoporosis Study between 2006-2010 were included. Data on age, body mass index, mobility, education, back beliefs (Back Beliefs Questionnaire), LBP and disability (Graded Chronic Pain Scale) were collected between 2006-2010. Beliefs, LBP and disability were re-assessed in 2016-2021. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the association between negative back beliefs and incident high-intensity pain and/or high-disability, adjusting for age, body mass index, mobility, and education. RESULTS: At baseline, 705 participants (mean age 53.8 years) had no or low LBP and no or low-disability; 441 (62.6%) participants completed a 10-year follow-up. Of these, 37 (8.4%) developed high-intensity pain and/or high-disability. In multivariate analyses, participants with more negative back beliefs at baseline were more likely to develop high-intensity pain and/or high-disability (Odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). Developing more negative back beliefs was also associated with incident high-intensity pain and/or high-disability (Odds Ratio 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.30). CONCLUSION: In a male community-based population, negative beliefs regarding the consequences of LBP were associated with an increased likelihood of developing high-intensity pain and/or high-disability. Addressing negative back beliefs in the community may reduce the incidence of high-intensity pain and/or high-disability over 10 years in men.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of fracture, but paradoxically do not have reduced bone mineral density. We investigated associations between peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and glycaemia status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants were men (n = 354, age 33-92 year) from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Diabetes was defined by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, self-report of diabetes and/or antihyperglycaemic medication use and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) as FPG 5.6-6.9 mmol/L. Bone measures were derived using pQCT (XCT2000) at 4% and 66% radial and tibial sites. Linear regression was used, adjusting for age, body mass index and socio-economic status. RESULTS: At the 4% site, men with T2DM had lower adjusted bone total area, trabecular area and cortical area at the radius (all - 6.2%) and tibia (all - 6.4%) compared to normoglycaemia. Cortical density was higher for T2DM at the radius (+ 5.8%) and tibia (+ 8.0%), as well as adjusted total bone density at the tibial site (+ 6.1%). At the 66% site, adjusted total bone area and polar stress strain index were lower for T2DM at the radius (- 4.3% and - 8.0%). Total density was also higher for T2DM (+ 1.2%). Only cortical density at the 4% tibial site was different between IFG and normoglycaemia in adjusted analyses (+ 4.5%). CONCLUSION: Men with T2DM had lower total bone area, trabecular area, cortical area and polar stress strain index than the other two groups; however, total density and cortical density were higher. Only one difference was observed between IFG and normoglycaemia; increased tibial cortical density.

Impact microindentation (IMI) is a novel technique for assessing bone material strength index (BMSi) in vivo, by measuring the depth of a micron-sized, spherical tip into cortical bone that is then indexed to the depth of the tip into a reference material. The aim of this study was to define the reference intervals for men and women by evaluating healthy adults from the United States of America, Europe and Australia. Participants included community-based volunteers and participants drawn from clinical and population-based studies. BMSi was measured on the tibial diaphysis using an OsteoProbe in 479 healthy adults (197 male and 282 female, ages 25 to 98 years) across seven research centres, between 2011 and 2018. Associations between BMSi, age, sex and areal bone mineral density (BMD) were examined following an a posteriori method. Unitless BMSi values ranged from 48 to 101. The mean (± standard deviation) BMSi for men was 84.4 ± 6.9 and for women, 79.0 ± 9.1. Healthy reference intervals for BMSi were identified as 71.0 to 97.9 for men and 59.8 to 95.2 for women. This study provides healthy reference data that can be used to calculate T- and Z-scores for BMSi and assist in determining the utility of BMSi in fracture prediction. These data will be useful for positioning individuals within the population and for identifying those with BMSi at the extremes of the population.

PURPOSE: To measure changes in dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) derived body composition in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) survivors in the year following discharge and compare to population controls. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using prospective observational data changes in hip and spine DXA estimated lean and fat mass between ICU discharge and 1-year follow-up were calculated and compared with age-sex-height matched controls from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study via multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Sixty-four participants were included, with median age 68.8 yr [IQR 60.8, 74.6], ICU length of stay 6.5 d [IQR 4, 9] and duration of mechanical ventilation 87 h [IQR 47, 143]. ICU survivors demonstrated greater annual increases in lean (+0.92 kg; 95%CI 0.67 to 1.18, p < 0.01) and fat mass (+2.50 kg, 95%CI 1.94 to 3.05; p < 0.01) than controls. At 1-yr follow-up, the ICU group had lower lean mass (-0.96 kg, 95%CI -1.91 to -0.01; p = 0.047) and greater fat mass (6.79 kg, 95%CI 4.55 to 9.03; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanically ventilated adult ICU patients gained lean mass in the year following critical illness but did not reach the level of matched population-based peers. Understanding the factors associated with, and effect of increasing muscle mass and reducing fat mass in the year after critical illness requires further investigation.

Accumulation of fat in the liver and skeletal muscle is associated with obesity and poor health outcomes. Liver steatosis is a characteristic of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and myosteatosis, of poor muscle quality in sarcopenia. In this study of 403 men (33-96 years), we investigated associations between the fatty liver index (FLI) and muscle density, as markers of fat accumulation in these organs. We also investigated associations between the FLI and parameters of sarcopenia, including DXA-derived appendicular lean mass (ALM) and handgrip strength by dynamometry. Muscle density was measured using pQCT at the radius and tibia. FLI was calculated from BMI, waist circumference, and levels of triglycerides and gamma-glutamyltransferase. There was a pattern of decreasing muscle density across increasing quartiles of FLI. After adjusting for age and lifestyle, mean radial muscle density in Q4 was 2.1% lower than Q1 (p < 0.001) and mean tibial muscle density was 1.8% lower in Q3 and 3.0% lower in Q4, compared to Q1 (p = 0.022 and < 0.001, respectively). After adjusting for age and sedentary lifestyle, participants in the highest FLI quartile were sixfold more likely to have sarcopenia. In conclusion, our results suggest that fat accumulation in the liver co-exists with fat infiltration into skeletal muscle.

Whole-body dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) accurately measures lean mass but is not routinely used in clinical practice. Hip and spine DXA are used in the diagnosis of osteoporosis, and with the common co-occurrence of sarcopenia with osteoporosis, regional DXA scans provide an opportunity for assessment of lean mass. The aim of this study is to develop predictive equations for the estimation of whole-body lean mass (WBLM), appendicular lean mass (ALM) and whole-body fat mass (WBFM) from regional DXA scans. A total of 2427 participants (ages 20-96 year; 57.7% men) from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study who underwent both regional and whole-body DXA were included in the analysis. Using forward stepwise multivariable linear regression, percentage fat (spine%fat, hip%fat) values from lumbar spine and femoral neck DXA were used in combination with clinical data to develop and validate equations for the estimation of WBLM, WBFM and ALM. Mean age was 53.5 year (± 19.2), weight 78.2 kg (± 15.4), height 169.6 cm (± 9.4), WBLM 50.4 kg (± 11.1), ALM 22.8 kg (± 5.4) and WBFM 24.3 kg (± 10.4). Spine%fat (r = 0.21) and hip%fat (r = - 0.34) were correlated with whole-body lean mass (p < 0.001). Final predictive equations included age, sex, weight, height, spine%fat, and hip%fat and possessed high predictive value (Adj R2 0.91-0.94, RMSE 1.60-2.84 kg). K-fold cross-validation methods produced median root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 1.59 to 2.81 kg for the three models. Regional DXA scans of the spine and hip can be used to estimate whole-body and appendicular lean mass, to assist in the identification of low muscle mass.

Medications used to treat hypertension may affect fracture risk. This study investigated fracture risk for users of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB). Participants (899 men, median age 70.3 yr (59.9-79.1), range 50.0-96.6 yr; 574 women, median age 65.5 yr (58.1-75.4), range 50.1-94.6 yr) were from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Medication use was self-reported and incident fractures were ascertained using radiological reports. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the femoral neck. Participants were divided into four groups: (1) non-users without hypertension, (2) non-users with hypertension, (3) ACEI users and (4) ARB users. Dosage was calculated using the defined daily dose (DDD) criteria. Participants were followed from date of visit to first fracture, death or 31 December 2016, whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazards models were used for analyses. At least one incident fracture was sustained by 156 men and 135 women over a median(IQR) of 11.5(6.2-13.2) and 10.9(6.3-11.6) years of follow-up, respectively. In unadjusted analyses, compared to non-users without hypertension, men in all three other groups had a higher risk of fracture (Hazard Ratio (HR, 95%CI) 1.54, 1.00-2.37; 1.90, 1.18-3.05; 2.15, 1.26-3.66), for non-users with hypertension, ACEI and ARB users, respectively). Following adjustment for age, prior fracture and BMD, these associations became non-significant. A dose effect for ARB use was observed; men using lower doses had a higher risk of fracture than non-users without hypertension, in both unadjusted (2.66, 1.34-5.29) and adjusted (2.03, 1.01-4.08) analyses, but this association was not observed at higher doses. For women, unadjusted analyses showed a higher risk for ACEI users compared to non-users without hypertension (1.74, 1.07-2.83). This was explained after adjustment for age, alcohol consumption, prior fracture and BMD (1.28, 0.74-2.22). No other differences were observe

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear as to whether polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is an additional risk factor in the development of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in obese women. In the current study, we provide clarity on this issue by rigorously analysing patient LV geometry beyond the basic clinical measures currently used. Importantly, the cohort contained only normotensive patients that would normally be deemed low risk with no further intervention required. METHODS: The study comprised 24 obese women with PCOS and 29 obese Control women. Transthoracic echocardiography was used to evaluate LV structure/function. Basic clinical and metabolic data were collected for each participant consisting of age, BMI, blood pressure, fasting glucose, LDL-C, HLD-C, cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Exclusion criteria; BMI < 30 g/m2, type 2 diabetes, hypertension. RESULTS: Both groups exhibited concentric remodelling of the LV posterior wall at a prevalence of ~20%, this associated with grade 1 diastolic dysfunction. Estimated LV mass/height2.7 was increased patients with PCOS (45 ± 2.2 vs 37 ± 1.6) with 33% exhibiting LV mass/height2.7 above ASE guidelines, compared to 7% in Controls. Furthermore, 25% of patients with PCOS were characterised with concentric hypertrophy, an alteration in LV geometry that was not observed in the Control group. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess LV geometric patterns in obese women with PCOS. The results suggest that obese women with PCOS are at greater risk of concentric hypertrophy than obese only women and provide justification for additional cardiovascular risk assessment in normotensive obese/PCOS women.

A biochemical diagnosis of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is defined by an elevated serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with a normal serum free thyroxine (FT4). This paper discusses SCH in the Australian population, the impact of SCH on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and the evidence for thyroid hormone therapy as well as exercise therapy to improve HRQoL in SCH. The prevalence of SCH in Australia is approximately 4-5% and is higher in females and the elderly. Current evidence suggests thyroid hormone therapy is not associated with an improvement in HRQoL. However, there does appear to be a subgroup of those with SCH that experience an impairment in HRQoL who may potentially benefit from treatment. Because the majority of research to date has been done in elderly, largely asymptomatic individuals, this may not be representative of the entire SCH population. In addition, alternative treatments, such as exercise therapy, have not been well explored in the literature, despite exercise therapy's effects on HRQoL in other populations. Further research is required to define clearly which individuals with SCH are likely to experience an impaired HRQoL, as well as explore the effects of thyroid hormone therapy and exercise therapy in these individuals.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal conditions and physical frailty have overlapping constructs. We aimed to quantify individual contributions of musculoskeletal factors to frailty. METHODS: Participants included 347 men and 360 women aged ≥60 yr (median ages; 70.8 (66.1-78.6) and 71.0 (65.2-77.5), respectively) from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Frailty was defined as ≥3, pre-frail 1-2, and robust 0, of the following; unintentional weight loss, weakness, low physical activity, exhaustion, and slowness. Measures were made of femoral neck BMD, appendicular lean mass index (ALMI, kg/m2) and whole-body fat mass index (FMI, kg/m2) by DXA (Lunar), SOS, BUA and SI at the calcaneus (Lunar Achilles Insight) and handgrip strength by dynamometers. Binary and ordinal logistic regression models and AUROC curves were used to quantify the contribution of musculoskeletal parameters to frailty. Potential confounders included anthropometry, smoking, alcohol, prior fracture, FMI, SES and comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, 54(15.6%) men and 62(17.2%) women were frail. In adjusted-binary logistic models, SI, ALMI and HGS were associated with frailty in men (OR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.53-1.01; OR=0.48, 0.34-0.68; and OR = 0.11, 0.06-0.22; respectively). Muscle measures (ALMI and HGS) contributed more to this association than did bone (SI) (AUROCs 0.77, 0.85 vs 0.71, respectively). In women, only HGS was associated with frailty in adjusted models (OR = 0.30 95%CI 0.20-0.45, AUROC = 0.83). In adjusted ordinal models, similar results were observed in men; for women, HGS and ALMI were associated with frailty (ordered OR = 0.30 95%CI 0.20-0.45; OR = 0.56, 0.40-0.80, respectively). CONCLUSION: Muscle deficits appeared to contribute more than bone deficits to frailty. This may have implications for identifying potential musculoskeletal targets for preventing or managing the progression of frailty.

OBJECTIVES: The health and well-being of older women may be influenced by frailty and low socioeconomic status (SES). This study examined the association between frailty and SES, healthcare utilisation and quality of life (QOL) among older women in regional Australia. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study was conducted on 360 women (ages ≥60yr) in the 15-year follow up. Frailty was identified using modified Fried's phenotype. Individual SES measures and healthcare utilisation were documented by questionnaire. Area-based SES was determined by cross-referencing residential addresses with the Australian Bureau of Statistics Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD). QOL was measured using the Australian World Health Organisation Quality of Life Instrument (WHOQoL-Bref). Multinomial logistic regression was conducted with frailty groupings as outcome. RESULTS: Sixty-two (17.2%) participants were frail, 199 (55.3%) pre-frail and 99 (27.5%) robust. Frail participants were older with higher body mass index. Frailty was associated with lower education but not marital status, occupation or IRSAD. Strong associations with frailty were demonstrated for all WHOQoL-Bref domains. Frailty was associated with more primary care doctor visits (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study highlights the significant impact of frailty on older women, indicating reduced QOL and increased primary care doctor visits.

Dynapenia is a key contributor to physical frailty. Cognitive impairment and dementia accompany frailty, yet links between skeletal muscle and neurocognition are poorly understood. We examined the cross-sectional relationship between lower limb muscle strength and global cognitive function. Participants were 127 women aged 51-87 years, from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Peak eccentric strength of the hip-flexors and hip abductors was determined using a hand-held dynamometer, and dynapenia identified as muscle strength t-scores < -1. Cognition was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and MMSE scores below the median were rated as low. Associations between dynapenia and low cognition were examined using logistic regression models. Hip-flexor dynapenia was detected in 38 (71.7%) women with low cognition and 36 (48.7%) with good cognition (p = 0.009); for hip abductor dynapenia, the pattern was similar (21 (39.6%) vs. 9 (12.2%); p < 0.001). While the observed difference for hip-flexor strength was attenuated after adjusting for age and height (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) 1.95, 95%CI 0.86-4.41), low cognition was nearly 4-fold more likely in association with hip abductor dynapenia (adjusted OR 3.76, 95%CI 1.44-9.83). No other confounders were identified. Our data suggest that low strength of the hip abductors and low cognition are associated and this could be a consequence of poor muscle function contributing to cognitive decline or vice versa. As muscle weakness is responsive to physical interventions, this warrants further investigation.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) can provide information complementary to dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), however, there is sparse normative data to enable meaningful clinical interpretation and comparison. This study aimed to develop age-stratified normative data for pQCT-derived bone parameters in Australian men. METHODS: Participants were men (n = 508, age 33-96 yr) from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Bone parameters at 4% (n = 469) and 66% (n = 436) of radial length, and 4% (n = 449) and 66% (n = 438) of tibial length were acquired using pQCT (XCT 2000, Stratec Medizintechnik, Pforzheim, Germany). Best models of age, height and weight for each parameter were developed and where parameters exhibited variation with age, age decade mean (±SD) values were determined. Scatterplots were used to visualise the relationships between each of the parameters and age, height and weight. RESULTS: Thirteen parameters at tibial and radial sites were correlated with age, height and weight, allowing for their inclusion in multiple linear regression models. A positive association with age was found for total area of the tibia or radius (as appropriate) (mm2) at all sites, trabecular bone area (mm2) at 4% sites, and total bone area (both long bones) (mm2) at 66% sites. A negative association with age was found for cortical density (mg/cm3) and cortical thickness (mm) at both radial and tibial 66% sites, but total density (mg/cm3) at the 66% radial site and total cortical density of both long bones (mg/cm3) at the 66% tibial site only. CONCLUSION: This study presents normative data for pQCT-derived bone parameters and describes age related associations in a number of these variables. Broadly, parameters of bone area were positively associated with age, whereas parameters associated with bone density and structure were negatively associated with age. These data have the potential to be used in clinical settings when assessing age-related decline in bon

PURPOSE: Intensive care unit (ICU) survivors have reduced physical function likely due to skeletal muscle wasting and weakness acquired during critical illness. However, the contribution of pre-morbid muscle mass has not been elucidated. We aimed to examine the association between pre-ICU muscle mass and ICU admission risk. Secondary outcomes include the relationship between muscle mass and ICU outcomes. METHODS: ICU admissions between June 1, 1998, and February 1, 2019, were identified among participants of Geelong Osteoporosis Study (GOS), a population-based cohort study. Cox proportional hazard regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) for ICU admission across T-score strata and continuous values of DXA-derived lean mass measures of skeletal mass index (SMI, lean mass/body mass %) and appendicular lean mass corrected for height (ALM/h2, kg/m2). Multivariable regression was used to determine the relationship between lean mass and ICU outcomes. RESULTS: One hundred and eighty-six of 3126 participants enrolled in GOS were admitted to the ICU during the follow-up period. In adjusted models, lean mass was not predictive of ICU admission (SMI: HR 0.99 95%CI 0.97-1.01, p = 0.32; ALM/h2: HR 1.11 95%CI 0.94-1.31, p = 0.23), while greater appendicular lean mass was related to reduced 28-day mortality (ALM/h2 adjOR: 0.25, 95%CI 0.10-0.63, p = 0.003, SMI adjOR: 0.91, 95%CI 0.82-1.02, p = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Lean mass was not associated with ICU admission in this population-based cohort study; however, greater appendicular lean mass was associated with reduced mortality. This suggests pre-ICU muscle status may not predict development of critical illness but is associated with better survival after critical illness occurs.

BACKGROUND: The extent of muscle deterioration associated with ageing or disease can be quantified by comparison with appropriate reference data. The objective of this study is to present normative data for lower-limb muscle strength and quality for 573 males and 923 females aged 20-97 yr participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study in southeastern Australia. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, measures of muscle strength for hip flexors and hip abductors were obtained using a Nicholas manual muscle tester, a hand-held dynamometer (HHD; kg). Leg lean mass was measured by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA; kg), and muscle quality calculated as strength/mass (N/kg). RESULTS: For both sexes, muscle strength and quality decreased with advancing age. Age explained 12.9-25.3% of the variance in muscle strength in males, and 20.8-24.6% in females; age explained less of the variance in muscle quality. Means and standard deviations for muscle strength and quality for each muscle group are reported by age-decade for each sex, and cutpoints equivalent to T-scores of - 2.0 and - 1.0 were derived using data from young males (n = 89) and females (n = 148) aged 20-39 years. CONCLUSIONS: These data will be useful for quantifying the extent of dynapenia and poor muscle quality among adults in the general population in the face of frailty, sarcopenia and other age-related muscle dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is characterised by age-related declines in physical, psychological and social functioning. Features of frailty overlap with risk factors for fragility fractures. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®) and frailty. METHODS: In cross-sectional analysis, frailty status was determined for participants aged 60-90 yr at 15-year follow-up of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, using a modified Fried frailty phenotype. Using the FRAX on-line tool, scores for hip and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were calculated with and without bone mineral density (BMD). Using the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curves, and FRAX scores calculated at the baseline visit for these participants, we investigated the association of FRAX and frailty 15 years later. RESULTS: Forty-seven of 303 women (15.5%) and 41 of 282 men (14.5%) were frail at the 15-year visit. There was a gradient of increasing median FRAX scores from robust to frail. For example, for women, median MOF-FRAX without BMD increased from 5.9 for the robust to 7.5 for the pre-frail and 14.0 for the frail (p < 0.001). In secondary analyses, an association was observed between FRAX and frailty over 15 years, with the highest AUROC for women being 0.72 for MOF-FRAX with BMD, and for men, 0.76 hip-FRAX without BMD. CONCLUSION: An association was observed between FRAX and frailty where frail men and women had higher FRAX-scores compared to the other groups. Preliminary data suggest that FRAX, with or without BMD, may be useful in enhancing the information on frailty. Further research using larger datasets will be required to explore this.

Frailty, a clinical syndrome characterized by multisystem dysregulation, has been associated with high levels of oxidative stress. We investigated the association between serum total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and frailty in older men. This cross-sectional study included 581 men (age 60-90 years) enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Frailty comprised at least three of unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, slowness, and weakness. Serum TAC was measured by quantitative colorimetric determination and expressed as uric acid equivalents (mM). Relationships between TAC (in SD units) and frailty were explored using multivariable logistic regression models. Sociodemographic, anthropometric, and lifestyle variables were tested as potential confounders and effect modifiers. A sensitivity analysis excluded participants (n = 145) in the upper quartile of TAC, who were likely to have hyperuricemia. Fifty (8.6%) men were frail. There was evidence that higher TAC levels were associated with increased likelihood of frailty (OR 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.99, 1.80]), and this was attenuated after adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI; OR 1.26, 95% CI [0.93,1.71]). No effect modifiers or other confounders were identified. The sensitivity analysis revealed a positive association between TAC and frailty, before and after accounting for age and BMI (adjusted OR 1.79, 95% CI [1.01, 3.17] p = .038). These results suggest a positive association between TAC levels and frailty, supporting the hypothesis that this biomarker could be useful in identifying individuals at risk of frailty. We speculate that a milieu of heightened oxidative stress in frailty may elevate the oxidative stress regulatory set point, raising antioxidant activity. This warrants further investigation.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading burden of disease in Australia and worldwide, with incidence rates varying with age, sex and geographic location. As part of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study, we aimed to map the incidence rates of primary cancer diagnoses across western Victoria and investigate the association of age, accessibility/remoteness index of Australia (ARIA) and area-level socioeconomic status (SES) with cancer incidence. METHODS: Data on cancer incidence in the study region were extracted from the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) for men and women aged 40+ years during 2010-2013, inclusive. The age-adjusted incidence rates (per 10,000 population/year), as well as specific incidence for breast, prostate, lung, bowel and melanoma cancers, were calculated for the entire region and for the 21 Local Government Areas (LGA) that make up the whole region. The association of aggregated age, ARIA and SES with cancer incidence rates across LGAs was determined using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 15,120 cancer cases were identified; 8218 (54%) men and 6902 women. For men, the age-standardised rate of cancer incidence for the whole region was 182.1 per 10,000 population/year (95% CI 177.7-186.5) and for women, 162.2 (95% CI: 157.9-166.5). The incidence of cancer (overall) increased with increasing age for men and women. Geographical variations in cancer incidence were also observed across the LGAs, with differences identified between men and women. Residents of socioeconomically disadvantaged and less accessible areas had higher cancer incidence (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Cancer incidence rates varied by age, sex, across LGAs and with ARIA. These findings not only provide an evidence base for identifying gaps and assessing the need for services and resource allocation across this region, but also informs policy and assists health service planning and implementation of preventative intervention strategies to reduce the incidence of cancer across western

OBJECTIVE: Hospitalisation rates for many chronic conditions are higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged and less accessible areas. We aimed to map diabetes hospitalisation rates by local government area (LGA) across Western Victoria, Australia, and investigate their association with socioeconomic status (SES) and accessibility/remoteness. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study METHODS: Data were acquired from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset for all hospitalisations (public and private) with a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus during 2011-2014. Crude and age-standardised hospitalisation rates (per 1000 population per year) were calculated by LGA for men, women and combined data. Associations between accessibility (Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia, ARIA), SES (Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, IRSAD) and diabetes hospitalisation were investigated using Poisson regression analyses. RESULTS: Higher LGA-level accessibility and SES were associated with higher rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes hospitalisation, overall and for each sex. For type 1 diabetes, higher accessibility (ARIA category) was associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men incidence rate ratio [IRR]=2.14, 95% CI 1.64 to 2.80; women IRR=2.45, 95% CI 1.87 to 3.19; combined IRR=2.30, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.13; all p<0.05). Higher socioeconomic advantage (IRSAD decile) was also associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.43; women IRR=1.32, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.51; combined IRR=1.23, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.42; all p<0.05). Similarly, for type 2 diabetes, higher accessibility (ARIA category) was associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=2.49, 95% CI 1.81 to 3.43; women IRR=2.34, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.25; combined IRR=2.32, 95% CI 1.66 to 3.25; all p<0.05) and higher socioeconomic advantage (IRSAD decile) was also associated with higher hospitalisation rates (men IRR=1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.30; women IRR=1.14, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.28

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is associated with higher fracture risk despite higher bone mineral density (BMD), with FRAX® underestimating risk. This study aimed to investigate FRAX score with and without BMD for women with normoglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes. METHODS: Among 566 women, aged 40-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥5.5 mmol/L and diabetes as FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, use of antihyperglycaemic medication and/or self-report. FRAX (Australia) 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic (MOF) and hip fracture were calculated, with and without BMD, producing four FRAX scores per participant. Kruskal-Wallis test for non-parametric data was used to examine differences between the three glycaemia groups. Fractures over 10 years were ascertained using radiological reports. The number of fractures predicted by FRAX was compared with the number of fractures observed using Chi-square tests. RESULTS: For MOF FRAX calculated without BMD, women with diabetes (n = 67) tended to have a higher median score 7.1 (IQR 2.7-12.0) than normoglycaemia (n = 252) (4.3 (IQR 1.9-9.9) and IFG (n = 247) (5.1 (IQR 2.2-9.6)). For hip FRAX without BMD, diabetes tended to have a higher score (2.5 (IQR 06-4.3)) than normoglycaemia (1.2 (IQR 0.3-4.1)) and IFG (1.3 (IQR 0.3-4.1)). In the normoglycaemia and IFG groups, MOFs were underestimated; 15 predicted vs 28 observed, p = 0.038; and 16 predicted vs 31 observed, p = 0.021, respectively. Fractures were accurately estimated in all other groups.When including BMD, the association with diabetes was non-significant for both MOF FRAX (normoglycaemia 3.7 (IQR 1.9-8.0), IFG 4.3 (IQR 2.2-8.1) and diabetes 5.3 (IQR 2.7-9.4)) and hip FRAX scores (normoglycaemia 0.6 (IQR 0.2-2.5), IFG 0.8 (IQR 0.2-2.7) and diabetes 1.0 (IQR 0.3-3.0)). For normoglycaemia and IFG, MOFs were underestimated (normoglycaemia: 13 predicted vs 28 observed and IFG: 13 vs 31). For diabetes, both MOFs

INTRODUCTION: Representatives appointed by relevant Australian medical societies used a systematic approach for adaptation of guidelines (ADAPTE) to formulate clinical consensus recommendations on assessment and management of bone health in women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer receiving endocrine therapy. The current evidence suggests that women receiving adjuvant aromatase inhibitors and pre-menopausal woman treated with tamoxifen have accelerated bone loss and that women receiving adjuvant aromatase inhibitors have increased fracture risk. Both bisphosphonates and denosumab prevent bone loss; additionally, denosumab has proven anti-fracture benefit in post-menopausal women receiving aromatase inhibitors for hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: Women considering endocrine therapy need fracture risk assessment, including clinical risk factors, biochemistry and bone mineral density measurement, with monitoring based on risk factors. Weight-bearing exercise and vitamin D and calcium sufficiency are recommended routinely. Anti-resorptive treatment is indicated in women with prevalent or incident clinical or morphometric fragility fractures, and should be considered in women with a T score (or Z score in women aged < 50 years) of < - 2.0 at any site, or if annual bone loss is ≥ 5%, considering baseline bone mineral density and other fracture risk factors. Duration of anti-resorptive treatment can be individualised based on absolute fracture risk. Relative to their skeletal benefits, risks of adverse events with anti-resorptive treatments are low. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS RESULT OF THE POSITION STATEMENT: Skeletal health should be considered in the decision-making process regarding choice and duration of endocrine therapy. Before and during endocrine therapy, skeletal health should be assessed regularly, optimised by non-pharmacological intervention and, where indicated, anti-resorptive treatment, in an individualised, mult

BACKGROUND: Residents of rural and regional areas, compared to those in urban regions, are more likely to experience geographical difficulties in accessing healthcare, particularly specialist services. We investigated associations between region of residence, socioeconomic status (SES) and utilisation of all-cause revision hip replacement or revision knee replacement surgeries. METHODS: Conducted in western Victoria, Australia, as part of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study, data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (2011-2013) for adults who underwent a revision hip replacement (n = 542; 54% female) or revision knee replacement (n = 353; 54% female) were extracted. We cross-matched residential addresses with 2011 census data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and using an ABS-derived composite index, classified region of residence according to local government areas (LGAs), and area-level SES into quintiles. For analyses, the control population (n = 591,265; 51% female) was ABS-determined and excluded adults already identified as cases. Mixed-effects logistic regression was performed. RESULTS: We observed that 77% of revision hip surgeries and 83% of revision knee surgeries were performed for residents in the three most socially disadvantaged quintiles. In adjusted multilevel models, total variances contributed by the variance in LGAs for revisions of the hip or knee joint were only 1% (SD random effects ±0.01) and 3% (SD ± 0.02), respectively. No differences across SES or sex were observed. CONCLUSIONS: No differences in utilisation were identified between SES groups in the provision of revision surgeries of the hip or knee, independent of small between-LGA differences.

To formulate clinical consensus recommendations on bone health assessment and management of women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer receiving endocrine therapy, representatives appointed by relevant Australian Medical Societies used a systematic approach for adaptation of guidelines (ADAPTE) to derive an evidence-informed position statement addressing 5 key questions. Women receiving adjuvant aromatase inhibitors and the subset of premenopausal woman treated with tamoxifen have accelerated bone loss and increased fracture risk. Both bisphosphonates and denosumab prevent bone loss; additionally, denosumab has proven antifracture benefit. Women considering endocrine therapy need fracture risk assessment, including clinical risk factors, biochemistry and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement, with monitoring based on risk factors. Weight-bearing exercise, vitamin D and calcium sufficiency are recommended routinely. Antiresorptive treatment should be considered in women with prevalent or incident clinical or morphometric fractures, a T-score (or Z-scores in women <50 years) of <-2.0 at any site, or if annual bone loss is ≥5%, considering baseline BMD and other fracture risk factors. Duration of antiresorptive treatment can be individualized based on absolute fracture risk. Relative to their skeletal benefits, risks of adverse events with antiresorptive treatments are low. Skeletal health should be considered in the decision-making process regarding choice and duration of endocrine therapy. Before and during endocrine therapy, skeletal health should be assessed regularly, optimized by nonpharmacological intervention and where indicated antiresorptive treatment, in an individualized, multidisciplinary approach. Clinical trials are needed to better delineate long-term fracture risks of adjuvant endocrine therapy and to determine the efficacy of interventions designed to minimize these risks.

We report a case of severe hyperparathyroidism complicated by osteitis fibrosa cystica in an 83-year-old man post-myocardial infarction. The lesions were evident on magnetic resonance imaging only. A diagnosis of parathyroid carcinoma was considered due to clinical appearance of the parathyroid intraoperatively and the presence of an invasive T3 lesion mimicking metastatic disease. Differentiating parathyroid carcinoma from the benign causes at presentation can be difficult due to overlapping clinical, biochemical, radiological and histological features. The presence of bony lesions increases the diagnostic complexity of the case and demonstrates the challenges involved in the management of this disorder.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and patient acceptability of a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening model within endocrinology outpatient settings. Adults with diabetes were recruited from two urban endocrinology outpatient clinics and single-field, non-mydriatic fundus photographs were taken and graded for referable DR ( ≥ pre-proliferative DR). Each participant underwent; (1) automated screening model; where a deep learning algorithm (DLA) provided real-time reporting of results; and (2) manual model where retinal images were transferred to a retinal grading centre and manual grading outcomes were distributed to the patient within 2 weeks of assessment. Participants completed a questionnaire on the day of examination and 1-month following assessment to determine overall satisfaction and the preferred model of care. In total, 96 participants were screened for DR and the mean assessment time for automated screening was 6.9 minutes. Ninety-six percent of participants reported that they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the automated screening model and 78% reported that they preferred the automated model over manual. The sensitivity and specificity of the DLA for correct referral was 92.3% and 93.7%, respectively. AI-based DR screening in endocrinology outpatient settings appears to be feasible and well accepted by patients.

OBJECTIVES: The OsteoProbe measures Bone Material Strength Index (BMSi) of cortical bone in living humans using impact microindentation (IMI). Research using this minimally invasive technique is expanding yet, to-date, there have been no reports about its feasibility in the research setting. In this study, we assessed the feasibility and tolerability of using the OsteoProbe in men enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of data collected in a population-based study. SETTING: Barwon Statistical Division, southeastern Australia, 2016-2018. METHODS: For 252 of 345 consecutive participants (ages 33-96 years), BMSi was measured using the OsteoProbe at the mid-tibia. Immediately following measurement, each participant used a Visual Analogue Scale (0-10) to rate the level of discomfort that was anticipated and experienced, their initial reluctance towards the measurement and their willingness to repeat measurement. RESULTS: Reasons for non-measurement in 92 men were needle phobia (n=8), discomfort after first indentation (n=5), skin infections (n=21), excessive soft tissues around the mid-tibia region (n=56), inability to provide informed consent (n=2). Among 252 men who had IMI measures, the expectation for pain during measurement was low (1.54±1.56), as was actual pain experienced (0.38±0.71). Reluctance to undergo measurement was low (0.34±0.93). All participants indicated a willingness to have the measurement performed again. Mean (±SD) BMSi was 83.0±6.4 (range 62.3-93.0). CONCLUSION: In this study, the procedure was well accepted by participants suggesting that IMI testing with the OsteoProbe is feasible in a research setting.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adults with normoglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes differed according to the incidence, rate, length and primary reasons for hospital admission. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Barwon Statistical Division, Geelong, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Cohort included 971 men and 924 women, aged 20+ years, participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Glycaemic status was assessed at cohort entry using fasting plasma glucose, use of antihyperglycaemic medication and/or self-report. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measure was any admission to the major tertiary public hospital in the study region over the follow-up period. Secondary outcome measures were admission rate and length (days). RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 7.4 years (IQR 5.3-9.6), participants with diabetes, compared with those with normoglycaemia, were two times as likely to be hospitalised (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.42 to 3.02), had a higher admission rate (incidence rate ratio 1.61, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.23) and longer hospital stay (third quartile difference 7.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 14.1 and ninth decile difference 16.2, 95% CI 4.2 to 28.3). IFG group was similar to normoglycaemia for the incidence, rate and length of admission. Cardiovascular disease-related diagnoses were the most common primary reasons for hospitalisation across all glycaemic categories. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show increased incidence, rate and length of all-cause hospital admission in adults with diabetes as compared with normoglycaemia; however, we did not detect any associations for IFG. Interventions should focus on preventing IFG-to-diabetes progression and reducing cardiovascular risk in IFG and diabetes.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the relationship between musculoskeletal deterioration and all-cause mortality in a cohort of women studied prospectively over a decade. METHODS: A cohort of 750 women aged 50-94 years was followed for a decade after femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and appendicular lean mass (ALM) were measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, in conjunction with comorbidities, health behaviour data, and other clinical measures. The outcome was all-cause mortality identified from the Australian National Deaths Index. Using Cox proportional hazards models and age as the time variable, mortality risks were estimated according to BMD groups (ideal-BMD, osteopenia, and osteoporosis) and ALM groups (T-scores > -1.0 high, -2.0 to -1.0 medium, <-2.0 low). RESULTS: During 6712 person years of follow-up, there were 190 deaths, the proportions increasing with diminishing BMD: 10.7% (23/215) ideal-BMD, 23.5% (89/378) osteopenia, 49.7% (78/157) osteoporosis; and with diminishing ALM: 17.0% (59/345) high, 26.2% (79/301) medium, 50.0% (52/104) low. In multivariable models adjusted for smoking, polypharmacy, and mobility, compared with those with ideal BMD, mortality risk was greater for those with osteopenia [hazard ratio (HR) 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-2.81] and osteoporosis (HR 2.61, 95%CI 1.60-4.24). Similarly, compared with those with high ALM, adjusted mortality risk was greater for medium ALM (HR 1.36, 95%CI 0.97-1.91) and low ALM (HR 1.65, 95%CI 1.11-2.45). When BMD and ALM groups were tested together in the model, BMD remained a predictor of mortality (HR 1.74, 95%CI 1.09-2.78; HR 2.82, 95%CI 1.70-4.70; respectively), and low ALM had borderline significance (HR 1.52, 95%CI 1.00-2.31), which was further attenuated after adjusting for smoking, polypharmacy, and mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Poor musculoskeletal health increased the risk for mortality independent of age. This appears to be driven mainly by a decline in bone mass. Low lean

UNLABELLED: Compared to urban residents, those in rural/regional areas often experience inequitable healthcare from specialist service providers. Independent of small between-area differences in utilisation, socially advantaged groups had the greatest uptake of joint replacement. These data suggest low correlation between 'need' vs. 'uptake' of surgery in rural/regional areas. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Compared to urban residents, those in rural and regional areas often experience inequitable healthcare from specialist service providers, often due to geographical issues. We investigated associations between socioeconomic position (SEP), region of residence and utilisation of primary total knee replacement (TKR) and/or total hip replacement (THR) for osteoarthritis. DESIGN AND METHODS: As part of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study, we extracted data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (2011-2013) for adults that utilised primary TKR (n = 4179; 56% female) and/or THR (n = 3120; 54% female). Residential addresses were matched with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011 census data: region of residence was defined according to local government areas (LGAs), and area-level SEP (quintiles) defined using an ABS-derived composite index. The ABS-determined control population (n = 591,265; 51% female) excluded individuals identified as cases. We performed multilevel logistic regression modelling using a stratified two-stage cluster design. RESULTS: TKR was higher for those aged 70-79 years (AOR 1.4 95%CI 1.3-1.5; referent = 60-69 years) and in the most advantaged SEP quintile (AOR 2.1, 95%CI 1.8-2.3; referent = SEP quintile 3); results were similar for THR (70-79 years = AOR 1.7, 95%CI 1.5-1.8; SEP quintile 5 = AOR 2.5, 95%CI 2.2-2.8). Total variances contributed by the variance in LGAs were 2% (SD random effects ± 0.28) and 3% (SD ± 0.32), respectively. CONCLUSION: Independent of small between-LGA differences in uti

BACKGROUND: Critical illness is associated with increased risk of fragility fracture and loss of bone mineral density (BMD), although the impact of medication exposures (bone anti-fracture therapy or glucocorticoids) and time remain unexplored. The objective of this study was to describe the association of time after ICU admission, and post-ICU administration of bone anti-fracture therapy or glucocorticoids after critical illness, with change in BMD. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, conducted in a tertiary hospital ICU, we studied adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours and measured BMD annually for 2 years after ICU discharge. We performed mixed linear modelling to describe the association of time, and post-ICU administration of anti-fracture therapy or glucocorticoids, with annualised change in BMD. RESULTS: Ninety-two participants with a mean age of 63 (±15) years had at least one BMD assessment after ICU discharge. In women, a greater loss of spine BMD occurred in the first year after critical illness (year 1: -1.1 ± 2.0% vs year 2: 3.0 ± 1.7%, p = 0.02), and anti-fracture therapy use was associated with reduced loss of BMD (femur 3.1 ± 2.4% vs -2.8 ± 1.7%, p = 0.04, spine 5.1 ± 2.5% vs -3.2 ± 1.8%, p = 0.01). In men anti-fracture and glucocorticoid use were not associated with change in BMD, and a greater decrease in BMD occurred in the second year after critical illness (year 1: -0.9 ± 2.1% vs year 2: -2.5 ± 2.1%, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In women a greater loss of spine BMD was observed in the first year after critical illness, and anti-fracture therapy use was associated with an increase in BMD. In men BMD loss increased in the second year after critical illness. Anti-fracture therapy may be an effective intervention to prevent bone loss in women after critical illness.

AIMS: Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes are increasing in prevalence worldwide and lead to serious health problems. The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the association between impaired fasting glucose or diabetes and mortality over a 10-year period in Australian women. METHODS: This study included 1167 women (ages 20-94 yr) enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in diabetes, IFG, and normoglycaemia were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Women with diabetes were older and had higher measures of adiposity, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides compared to the IFG and normoglycaemia groups (all p < 0.001). Mortality rate was greater in women with diabetes compared to both the IFG and normoglycaemia groups (HR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3-2.7). Mortality was not different in women with IFG compared to those with normoglycaemia (HR 1.0; 95% CI 0.7-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: This study reports an association between diabetes and all-cause mortality. However, no association was detected between IFG and all-cause mortality. We also showed that mortality in Australian women with diabetes continues to be elevated and women with IFG are a valuable target for prevention of premature mortality associated with diabetes.

Background: An increasing burden of chronic disease and associated health service delivery is expected due to the ageing Australian population. Injuries also affect health and wellbeing and have a long-term impact on health service utilisation. There is a lack of comprehensive data on disease and injury in rural and regional areas of Australia. The aim of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study is to compile data from various sources to better describe the patterns of chronic disease and injury across western Victoria. Design: Ecological study. Methods: Information on demographics, socioeconomic indicators and lifestyle factors are obtained from health surveys and government departments. Data concerning chronic diseases and injuries will be sourced from various registers, health and emergency services, local community health centres and administrative databases and compiled to generate profiles for the study region and for sub-populations within the region. Expected impact for public health: This information is vital to establish current and projected population needs to inform policy and improve targeted health services delivery, care transition needs and infrastructure development. This study provides a model that can be replicated in other geographical settings.

BACKGROUND: According to a recent position paper by the American Heart Association, it remains unclear whether depression is a risk factor for incident Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). We assessed whether a depressive disorder independently predicts 18-year incident CHD in women. METHOD: A prospective longitudinal study of 860 women enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (1993-2011) was conducted. Participants were derived from an age-stratified, representative sample of women (20-94 years) randomly selected from electoral rolls in South-Eastern Australia. The exposure was a diagnosis of a depressive disorder using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Outcomes data were collected from hospital medical records: (1) PRIMARY OUTCOME: a composite measure of cardiac death, non-fatal Myocardial Infarction or coronary intervention. (2) Secondary outcome: any cardiac event (un/stable angina, cardiac event not otherwise defined) occurring over the study period. RESULTS: Seven participants were excluded based on CHD history. Eighty-three participants (9.6%) recorded ≥1 cardiac event over the study period; 47 had a diagnosis that met criteria for inclusion in the primary analysis. Baseline depression predicted 18-year incidence, adjusting for (1) anxiety (adj. OR:2.39; 95% CIs:1.19-4.82), plus (2) typical risk factors (adj. OR:3.22; 95% CIs:1.45-6.93), plus (3) atypical risk factors (adj. OR:3.28; 95% CIs:1.36-7.90). This relationship held when including all cardiac events. No relationship was observed between depression and recurrent cardiac events. CONCLUSION: The results of this study support the contention that depression is an independent risk factor for CHD incidence in women. Moreover, the strength of association between depression and CHD incidence was of a greater magnitude than any typical and atypical risk factor.

RATIONALE: Critical illness may be associated with increased bone turnover and loss of bone mineral density (BMD). Prospective evidence describing long-term changes in BMD after critical illness is needed to further define this relationship. OBJECTIVES: To measure the change in BMD and bone turnover markers (BTMs) in subjects 1 year after critical illness compared with population-based control subjects. METHODS: We studied adult patients admitted to a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) who required mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours. We measured clinical characteristics, BTMs, and BMD during admission and 1 year after ICU discharge. We compared change in BMD to age- and sex-matched control subjects from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Sixty-six patients completed BMD testing. BMD decreased significantly in the year after critical illness at both femoral neck and anterior-posterior spine sites. The annual decrease was significantly greater in the ICU cohort compared with matched control subjects (anterior-posterior spine, -1.59%; 95% confidence interval, -2.18 to -1.01; P < 0.001; femoral neck, -1.20%; 95% confidence interval, -1.69 to -0.70; P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in 10-year fracture risk for major fractures (4.85 ± 5.25 vs. 5.50 ± 5.52; P < 0.001) and hip fractures (1.57 ± 2.40 vs. 1.79 ± 2.69; P = 0.001). The pattern of bone resorption markers was consistent with accelerated bone turnover. CONCLUSIONS: Critically ill individuals experience a significantly greater decrease in BMD in the year after admission compared with population-based control subjects. Their bone turnover biomarker pattern is consistent with an increased rate of bone loss.

Objectives. To compare 12-month falls recall with falls reported prospectively on daily falls calendars in a clinical trial of women aged ≥70 years. Methods. 2,096 community-dwelling women at high risk of falls and/or fracture completed a daily falls calendar and standardised interviews when falls were recorded, for 12 months. Data were compared to a 12-month falls recall question that categorised falls status as "no falls," "a few times," "several," and "regular" falls. Results. 898 (43%) participants reported a fall on daily falls calendars of whom 692 (77%) recalled fall(s) at 12 months. Participants who did not recall a fall were older (median 79.3 years versus 77.8 years, P = 0.028). Smaller proportions of fallers who sustained an injury or accessed health care failed to recall a fall (all P < 0.04). Among participants who recalled "no fall," 85% reported zero falls on daily calendars. Few women selected falls categories of "several times" or "regular" (4.1% and 0.4%, resp.) and the sensitivity of these categories was low (30% to 33%). Simply categorising participants into fallers or nonfallers had 77% sensitivity and 94% specificity. Conclusion. For studies where intensive ascertainment of falls is not feasible, 12-month falls recall questions with fewer responses may be an acceptable alternative.

AIMS: Diabetes mellitus is a growing health problem worldwide. This study aimed to describe dysglycaemia and determine the impact of body composition and clinical and lifestyle factors on the risk of progression or regression from impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to diabetes or normoglycaemia in Australian women. METHODS: This study included 1167 women, aged 20-94 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors for progression to diabetes or regression to normoglycaemia (from IFG), over 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS: At baseline the proportion of women with IFG was 33.8% and 6.5% had diabetes. Those with fasting dysglycaemia had higher obesity-related factors, lower serum HDL cholesterol, and lower physical activity. Over a decade, the incidence of progression from IFG to diabetes was 18.1 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 10.7-28.2). Fasting plasma glucose and serum triglycerides were important factors in both progression to diabetes and regression to normoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a transitional process; those with IFG had risk factors intermediate to normoglycaemics and those with diabetes. This investigation may help target interventions to those with IFG at high risk of progression to diabetes and thereby prevent cases of diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Muscle strengthening exercises are promoted for building and maintaining a healthy skeleton. We aimed to investigate the relationship between muscle strength and areal bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip in women aged 26-97 years. METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilises data from 863 women assessed for the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Measures of hip flexor and abductor strength were made using a hand-held dynamometer (Nicholas Manual Muscle Tester). The maximal measure from three trials on each leg was used for analyses. BMD was measured at the hip using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA; Lunar DPX-L). Total lean mass, body fat mass and appendicular lean mass were determined from whole body DXA scans. Linear regression techniques were used with muscle strength as the independent variable and BMD as the dependent variable. Models were adjusted for age and indices of body composition. RESULTS: Measures of age-adjusted hip flexor strength and hip abductor strength were positively associated with total hip BMD. For each standard deviation (SD) increase in hip flexor strength, the increase in mean total hip BMD (SD) was 10.4 % (p = 0.009). A similar pattern was observed for hip abductor strength, with an increase in mean total hip BMD of 22.8 % (p = 0.025). All associations between hip muscle strength and total hip BMD were independent of height, but were nullified after adjusting for appendicular lean mass or total lean mass. CONCLUSIONS: There was a positive association observed between muscle strength and BMD at the hip. However, this association was explained by measures of lean mass.

SUMMARY: This study investigated the influence of prior fracture on the risk of subsequent fracture. There was a higher risk of subsequent fracture in both young and older adult age groups when Australian males or females had already sustained a prior fracture. Fracture prevention is important throughout life for both sexes. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of prior fracture on the risk of subsequent fracture across the adult age range in Australian males and females. METHODS: All-cause fractures were grouped into age categories for males and females enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (Australia) using retrospective self-report data and prospective radiology-confirmed data. For all age categories, the relative risk (RR and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of subsequent fracture in a later age category was compared between those with prior fracture and those without. RESULTS: For both sexes, childhood fracture increased the risk of subsequent fracture in adolescence (males: RR 21.7; 95% CI 16.0, 27.4; females: RR 8.1; 3.5, 12.8). Males with adolescent fracture had increased risk of subsequent fracture in early adulthood (RR 11.5; 5.7, 17.3) and mid-adulthood (RR 13.0; 6.3, 19.7). Additionally, males with young adulthood or mid-adulthood fracture had increased risk of subsequent fracture in the following age group (RR 11.2; 4.4, 17.9, and RR 6.2; 0.8, 11.7, respectively). Mid-adult fractures increased the risk of subsequent fracture in older adulthood (RR 6.2; 0.8, 11.7). Females with childhood or adolescent fracture had an increased risk of fracture in young adulthood (RR 4.3; 0.7, 7.9, and RR 10.5; 4.4, 16.6), and prior fracture in older adult life increased the risk of subsequent fracture in old age (RR 14.9; 6.4. 23.3). CONCLUSIONS: Fracture prevention strategies may be more effective if attention is directed towards individuals with prior fracture at any age as they have a higher likelihood of sustaining a subsequent fractu