1. State-dependence of CO2 Forcing and its Implications for Climate Sensitivity
- Author
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He, Haozhe, Kramer, Ryan J., Soden, Brian J., and Jeevanjee, Nadir
- Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
When evaluating the effect of CO2 changes on the earth's climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2xCO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks, or a dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base-state. In this paper, we show that the IRF2xCO2 is not constant, but also depends on the climatological base-state, increasing by ~25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by ~10% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to stratospheric cooling, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the inter-model spread in IRF2xCO2, a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures
- Published
- 2022