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A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector's supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector's vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Tunnels in the trans-European road network (TEN) facilitate the transport of persons and goods on European roads. Following a series of major tunnel accidents European Union Directive 2004/54/EC was adopted to support the achievement of uniform and high tunnel safety levels. With future accident prevention and mitigation in mind and in support of the effective implementation of Article 15 on Reporting of the Directive we outline a procedure for learning lessons and discuss every step in the process with specific regard for its implications on Article 15. This includes accident investigation, reporting, data collection and analysis, learning lessons and their implementation. The realization that validated information on tunnel accidents is not easily available or accessible, or suffers from a lack of detail or accuracy fed into the development of a data-collection template. By its very nature the template development also guided the formulation of key recommendations for accident investigation and reporting as the main information source. In addition, key recommendations on data analysis, learning lessons and implementation were also made to assist the actors responsible for reporting or sharing information under the EU Directive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Most technological accidents cannot be considered Black Swans. • Natech accidents are generally foreseeable and therefore preventable. • Mindfulness and organizational resilience reduce the risk of surprise events. • Natech Black Swans are possible due to climate change and technological progress. Technological accidents are a threat to the population, the environment and the economy. Occasionally, the notion of "Black Swan" event is applied to such accidents as an explanation for why they could not be prevented. By their very nature, Black Swans are considered extreme outliers which are impossible to anticipate or manage. However, technological accidents are generally foreseeable and therefore preventable when the associated risk is managed responsibly and when warning signs are not ignored. Consequently, such accidents cannot be considered Black Swans. We contend that the same holds for technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (so-called Natech accidents) which usually result from a lack of corporate oversight and insufficient application of state-of-the-art knowledge in managing the associated risk. We argue that the successful reduction of Natech risk requires a corporate mindfulness of the risk and the need to address it using updated approaches, the recognition that organizational behavior influences the risk significantly, and risk ownership that departs from the "Act-of-God" mindset which much of the discussion around natural hazards is fraught with. The study also highlights the importance of scientific research and knowledge management to reduce risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specific risks to offshore oil and gas operations manifest in the Arctic and other harsh environments. Such extreme operating conditions can disrupt the offshore infrastructure and cause major accidents, posing a great challenge to operators. A thorough investigation of past incidents helps to learn lessons to ensure that a recurrence of serious accidents affecting workers and the environment can be prevented. The analysis of past incidents is divided into two parts. First, we offer a statistical analysis of offshore incidents triggered by natural events in the Arctic and in similar harsh environments. The analysis, organised by location, cause, and type of damage, failure mechanisms, and consequences, is based on data from the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD). Second, we analyse a selection of accidents that occurred in the recent past in ice-prone seas, with particular attention to potential deficiencies in safety measures, design requirements and design methodologies, operations planning and component reliability. Based on the analysis, important lessons were identified which stress the need for further efforts to ensure the safety of workers and of assets and to get all actors involved in offshore operations engaged towards achieving a safer future for the exploitation of oil and gas resources. • Natural hazards of unexpected intensity challenged design assumptions. • Loss of station keeping due to high winds and rough seas for floating structures. • Stormy weather resulted in numerous incidents during transfer operations. • Risk factors such as corrosion, wearing and aging are augmented in harsh environment. • More frequent occurrence of extreme events is expected in the future, due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires and explosions triggered by lightning strikes are among the most frequent Natech scenarios affecting the chemical and process industry. Although lightning hazard is well known, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents caused by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In the present study, a quantitative methodology for the assessment of the expected frequency of lightning capture by process equipment is presented. A specific model, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was developed to assess the capture frequency of lightning for equipment with a given geometry. The model allows the assessment of lay-out effects and the reduction of the capture probability due to the presence of other structures or equipment items. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations were also used to develop a simplified cell method allowing a straightforward assessment of the lightning impact probability in a quantitative risk assessment framework. The developed approach allows an in-depth analysis of the hazard due to lightning impact by identifying equipment items with the highest expected frequency of lightning impacts in a given lay-out. The model thus supplies useful data to approach the assessment of the quantitative contribution of lightning-triggered accidents to industrial risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In recent years, severe natural events raised concern about so-called NaTech accident scenarios: technological accidents caused by the impact of a natural event on an industrial facility or infrastructure. Lightning strikes are one of the most important triggers of NaTech scenarios. Moreover, previous studies showed that lightning strikes are among the main causes of loss of containment (LOC) of atmospheric storage vessels containing hazardous materials. Although the lightning hazard is well known, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents triggered by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In particular, the approaches to the assessment of lightning strike probability and to the damage caused by lightning strike are mainly qualitative or semi-quantitative and are mostly based on expert judgment. In the present study, a quantitative methodology for the assessment of the equipment damage probability due to lightning is presented. The lightning severity was quantified by means of probability distribution functions of two parameters: peak current intensity and lightning charge. Through the application of a Monte Carlo simulation the expected frequency of lightning strikes on the equipment and the equipment damage probability were determined. The results of the equipment damage model were validated by available experimental data on metal perforation in simulated lightning strikes. The results of the validated Monte Carlo simulations were fit to empirical functions obtaining a simplified model suitable for use in a quantitative risk assessment framework. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Tsunamis can cause catastrophic loss of life, destruction of property, engineered structures and coastal infrastructure, and they can lead to major economic losses. Even though tsunamis are relatively rare in the Mediterranean Sea, their potential danger to cities along the Mediterranean coast cannot be neglected. In order to create awareness among the potentially affected people it is important to know the risk and vulnerability of the population and infrastructure related to a possible tsunami impact. In this work a hazard, vulnerability and risk analysis for buildings in two districts of Alexandria was carried out. Relevant input parameters were derived mainly from remote sensing and field data and were analyzed with a geographical information system (GIS). Based on historical records of past tsunamis, two inundation scenarios of 5 m and 9 m were defined and modeled applying a bath-type model. The resulting tsunami building risk zone maps showed that 12% of the buildings in El Gomrok district are at high or very high risk for the 5 m scenario, while the risk for El Montazah area is low. For the 9 m scenario, on the other hand, the majority of the buildings in both districts, 56% of El Gomrok, and 60% of El Montazah, are in the high or very high risk zone. An analysis of the building use indicated that the majority of these buildings are residential and commercial types, highlighting that the potential consequences of a tsunami could be severe. Due to the scarcity of historical data no frequency could be associated with the two selected scenarios. While both are credible we consider the 5 m scenario as possible but unlikely and the 9 m scenario as unlikely. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NaTech accidents) are a significant category of industrial accidents. Several specific elements that characterize NaTech events still need to be investigated. In particular, the damage mode of equipment and the specific final scenarios that may take place in NaTech accidents are key elements for the assessment of hazard and risk due to these events. In the present study, data on 272 NaTech events triggered by floods were retrieved from some of the major industrial accident databases. Data on final scenarios highlighted the presence of specific events, as those due to substances reacting with water, and the importance of scenarios involving consequences for the environment. This is mainly due to the contamination of floodwater with the hazardous substances released. The analysis of process equipment damage modes allowed the identification of the expected release extents due to different water impact types during floods. The results obtained were used to generate substance-specific event trees for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of accidents triggered by floods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]