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Precision medicine offers the potential to tailor treatment decisions to individual patients, yet it faces significant challenges due to the complex biases in clinical observational data and the high-dimensional nature of biological data. This study models various types of treatment assignment biases using mutual information and investigates their impact on machine learning (ML) models for counterfactual prediction and biomarker identification. Unlike traditional counterfactual benchmarks that rely on fixed treatment policies, our work focuses on modeling different characteristics of the underlying observational treatment policy in distinct clinical settings. We validate our approach through experiments on toy datasets, semi-synthetic tumor cancer genome atlas (TCGA) data, and real-world biological outcomes from drug and CRISPR screens. By incorporating empirical biological mechanisms, we create a more realistic benchmark that reflects the complexities of real-world data. Our analysis reveals that different biases lead to varying model performances, with some biases, especially those unrelated to outcome mechanisms, having minimal effect on prediction accuracy. This highlights the crucial need to account for specific biases in clinical observational data in counterfactual ML model development, ultimately enhancing the personalization of treatment decisions in precision medicine., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, conference

De novo molecule design has become a highly active research area, advanced significantly through the use of state-of-the-art generative models. Despite these advances, several fundamental questions remain unanswered as the field increasingly focuses on more complex generative models and sophisticated molecular representations as an answer to the challenges of drug design. In this paper, we return to the simplest representation of molecules, and investigate overlooked limitations of classical generative approaches, particularly Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and auto-regressive models. We propose a hybrid model in the form of a novel regularizer that leverages the strengths of both to improve validity, conditional generation, and style transfer of molecular sequences. Additionally, we provide an in depth discussion of overlooked assumptions of these models' behaviour.

We propose a deep generative approach using latent temporal processes for modeling and holistically analyzing complex disease trajectories, with a particular focus on Systemic Sclerosis (SSc). We aim to learn temporal latent representations of the underlying generative process that explain the observed patient disease trajectories in an interpretable and comprehensive way. To enhance the interpretability of these latent temporal processes, we develop a semi-supervised approach for disentangling the latent space using established medical knowledge. By combining the generative approach with medical definitions of different characteristics of SSc, we facilitate the discovery of new aspects of the disease. We show that the learned temporal latent processes can be utilized for further data analysis and clinical hypothesis testing, including finding similar patients and clustering SSc patient trajectories into novel sub-types. Moreover, our method enables personalized online monitoring and prediction of multivariate time series with uncertainty quantification., Comment: Accepted at Machine Learning for Healthcare 2024. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2311.08149

The identification of phenotypes within complex diseases or syndromes is a fundamental component of precision medicine, which aims to adapt healthcare to individual patient characteristics. Postoperative delirium (POD) is a complex neuropsychiatric condition with significant heterogeneity in its clinical manifestations and underlying pathophysiology. We hypothesize that POD comprises several distinct phenotypes, which cannot be directly observed in clinical practice. Identifying these phenotypes could enhance our understanding of POD pathogenesis and facilitate the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies. In this paper, we propose an approach that combines supervised machine learning for personalized POD risk prediction with unsupervised clustering techniques to uncover potential POD phenotypes. We first demonstrate our approach using synthetic data, where we simulate patient cohorts with predefined phenotypes based on distinct sets of informative features. We aim to mimic any clinical disease with our synthetic data generation method. By training a predictive model and applying SHAP, we show that clustering patients in the SHAP feature importance space successfully recovers the true underlying phenotypes, outperforming clustering in the raw feature space. We then present a case study using real-world data from a cohort of elderly surgical patients. The results showcase the utility of our approach in uncovering clinically relevant subtypes of complex disorders like POD, paving the way for more precise and personalized treatment strategies.

AI-driven precision oncology has the transformative potential to reshape cancer treatment by leveraging the power of AI models to analyze the interaction between complex patient characteristics and their corresponding treatment outcomes. New technological platforms have facilitated the timely acquisition of multimodal data on tumor biology at an unprecedented resolution, such as single-cell multi-omics data, making this quality and quantity of data available for data-driven improved clinical decision-making. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning framework designed for personalized counterfactual cancer treatment suggestions based on an ensemble of machine learning experts trained on diverse multi-omics technologies. These specialized counterfactual experts per technology are consistently aggregated into a more powerful expert with superior performance and can provide both confidence and an explanation of its decision. The framework is tailored to address critical challenges inherent in data-driven cancer research, including the high-dimensional nature of the data, and the presence of treatment assignment bias in the retrospective observational data. The framework is showcased through comprehensive demonstrations using data from in-vitro and in-vivo treatment responses from a cohort of patients with ovarian cancer. Our method aims to empower clinicians with a reality-centric decision-support tool including probabilistic treatment suggestions with calibrated confidence and personalized explanations for tailoring treatment strategies to multi-omics characteristics of individual cancer patients., Comment: arXiv admin comment: This version has been removed by arXiv administrators as the submitter did not have the rights to agree to the license at the time of submission

In this paper, we propose a deep generative time series approach using latent temporal processes for modeling and holistically analyzing complex disease trajectories. We aim to find meaningful temporal latent representations of an underlying generative process that explain the observed disease trajectories in an interpretable and comprehensive way. To enhance the interpretability of these latent temporal processes, we develop a semi-supervised approach for disentangling the latent space using established medical concepts. By combining the generative approach with medical knowledge, we leverage the ability to discover novel aspects of the disease while integrating medical concepts into the model. We show that the learned temporal latent processes can be utilized for further data analysis and clinical hypothesis testing, including finding similar patients and clustering the disease into new sub-types. Moreover, our method enables personalized online monitoring and prediction of multivariate time series including uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in modeling systemic sclerosis, showcasing the potential of our machine learning model to capture complex disease trajectories and acquire new medical knowledge., Comment: Extended Abstract presented at Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) symposium 2023, December 10th, 2023, New Orleans, United States, 23 pages

Irregular multivariate time series data is characterized by varying time intervals between consecutive observations of measured variables/signals (i.e., features) and varying sampling rates (i.e., recordings/measurement) across these features. Modeling time series while taking into account these irregularities is still a challenging task for machine learning methods. Here, we introduce TADA, a Two-stageAggregation process with Dynamic local Attention to harmonize time-wise and feature-wise irregularities in multivariate time series. In the first stage, the irregular time series undergoes temporal embedding (TE) using all available features at each time step. This process preserves the contribution of each available feature and generates a fixed-dimensional representation per time step. The second stage introduces a dynamic local attention (DLA) mechanism with adaptive window sizes. DLA aggregates time recordings using feature-specific windows to harmonize irregular time intervals capturing feature-specific sampling rates. Then hierarchical MLP mixer layers process the output of DLA through multiscale patching to leverage information at various scales for the downstream tasks. TADA outperforms state-of-the-art methods on three real-world datasets, including the latest MIMIC IV dataset, and highlights its effectiveness in handling irregular multivariate time series and its potential for various real-world applications., Comment: A short version of this paper has been accepted for presentation at the Findings of Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) 2023 conference

Human genetic diseases often arise from point mutations, emphasizing the critical need for precise genome editing techniques. Among these, base editing stands out as it allows targeted alterations at the single nucleotide level. However, its clinical application is hindered by low editing efficiency and unintended mutations, necessitating extensive trial-and-error experimentation in the laboratory. To speed up this process, we present an attention-based two-stage machine learning model that learns to predict the likelihood of all possible editing outcomes for a given genomic target sequence. We further propose a multi-task learning schema to jointly learn multiple base editors (i.e. variants) at once. Our model's predictions consistently demonstrated a strong correlation with the actual experimental results on multiple datasets and base editor variants. These results provide further validation for the models' capacity to enhance and accelerate the process of refining base editing designs., Comment: Extended Abstract presented at Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) symposium 2023, December 10th, 2023, New Orleans, United States, 15 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2310.02919

We propose a novel framework that combines deep generative time series models with decision theory for generating personalized treatment strategies. It leverages historical patient trajectory data to jointly learn the generation of realistic personalized treatment and future outcome trajectories through deep generative time series models. In particular, our framework enables the generation of novel multivariate treatment strategies tailored to the personalized patient history and trained for optimal expected future outcomes based on conditional expected utility maximization. We demonstrate our framework by generating personalized insulin treatment strategies and blood glucose predictions for hospitalized diabetes patients, showcasing the potential of our approach for generating improved personalized treatment strategies. Keywords: deep generative model, probabilistic decision support, personalized treatment generation, insulin and blood glucose prediction, Comment: Extended Abstract presented at Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) symposium 2023, December 10th, 2023, New Orleans, United States, 17 pages

Recent transformer-based models have made significant strides in generating radiology reports from chest X-ray images. However, a prominent challenge remains: these models often lack prior knowledge, resulting in the generation of synthetic reports that mistakenly reference non-existent prior exams. This discrepancy can be attributed to a knowledge gap between radiologists and the generation models. While radiologists possess patient-specific prior information, the models solely receive X-ray images at a specific time point. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel approach that leverages a rule-based labeler to extract comparison prior information from radiology reports. This extracted comparison prior is then seamlessly integrated into state-of-the-art transformer-based models, enabling them to produce more realistic and comprehensive reports. Our method is evaluated on English report datasets, such as IU X-ray and MIMIC-CXR. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses baseline models in terms of natural language generation metrics. Notably, our model generates reports that are free from false references to non-existent prior exams, setting it apart from previous models. By addressing this limitation, our approach represents a significant step towards bridging the gap between radiologists and generation models in the domain of medical report generation., Comment: Accepted at ACL 2023, BioNLP Workshop

Contrastive learning methods have shown an impressive ability to learn meaningful representations for image or time series classification. However, these methods are less effective for time series forecasting, as optimization of instance discrimination is not directly applicable to predicting the future state from the historical context. To address these limitations, we propose SimTS, a simple representation learning approach for improving time series forecasting by learning to predict the future from the past in the latent space. SimTS exclusively uses positive pairs and does not depend on negative pairs or specific characteristics of a given time series. In addition, we show the shortcomings of the current contrastive learning framework used for time series forecasting through a detailed ablation study. Overall, our work suggests that SimTS is a promising alternative to other contrastive learning approaches for time series forecasting., Comment: Extended version. A shortened version was accepted by the 2024 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), see https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10446875

Background: Federated learning methods offer the possibility of training machine learning models on privacy-sensitive data sets, which cannot be easily shared. Multiple regulations pose strict requirements on the storage and usage of healthcare data, leading to data being in silos (i.e. locked-in at healthcare facilities). The application of federated algorithms on these datasets could accelerate disease diagnostic, drug development, as well as improve patient care. Methods: We present an extensive evaluation of the impact of different federation and differential privacy techniques when training models on the open-source MIMIC-III dataset. We analyze a set of parameters influencing a federated model performance, namely data distribution (homogeneous and heterogeneous), communication strategies (communication rounds vs. local training epochs), federation strategies (FedAvg vs. FedProx). Furthermore, we assess and compare two differential privacy (DP) techniques during model training: a stochastic gradient descent-based differential privacy algorithm (DP-SGD), and a sparse vector differential privacy technique (DP-SVT). Results: Our experiments show that extreme data distributions across sites (imbalance either in the number of patients or the positive label ratios between sites) lead to a deterioration of model performance when trained using the FedAvg strategy. This issue is resolved when using FedProx with the use of appropriate hyperparameter tuning. Furthermore, the results show that both differential privacy techniques can reach model performances similar to those of models trained without DP, however at the expense of a large quantifiable privacy leakage. Conclusions: We evaluate empirically the benefits of two federation strategies and propose optimal strategies for the choice of parameters when using differential privacy techniques.

Drug synergy arises when the combined impact of two drugs exceeds the sum of their individual effects. While single-drug effects on cell lines are well-documented, the scarcity of data on drug synergy, considering the vast array of potential drug combinations, prompts a growing interest in computational approaches for predicting synergies in untested drug pairs. We introduce a Graph Neural Network (\textit{GNN}) based model for drug synergy prediction, which utilizes drug chemical structures and cell line gene expression data. We extract data from the largest available drug combination database (DrugComb) and generate multiple synergy scores (commonly used in the literature) to create seven datasets that serve as a reliable benchmark with high confidence. In contrast to conventional models relying on pre-computed chemical features, our GNN-based approach learns task-specific drug representations directly from the graph structure of the drugs, providing superior performance in predicting drug synergies. Our work suggests that learning task-specific drug representations and leveraging a diverse dataset is a promising approach to advancing our understanding of drug-drug interaction and synergy.

In recent decades, there has been an increase in polypharmacy, the concurrent administration of multiple drugs per patient. Studies have shown that polypharmacy is linked to adverse patient outcomes and there is interest in elucidating the exact causes behind this observation. In this paper, we are studying the relationship between drug prescriptions, drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and patient mortality. Our focus is not so much on the number of prescribed drugs, the typical metric in polypharmacy research, but rather on the specific combinations of drugs leading to a DDI. To learn the space of real-world drug combinations, we first assessed the drug prescription landscape of the UK Biobank, a large patient data registry. We observed distinct drug constellation patterns driven by the UK Biobank participants' disease status. We show that these drug prescription clusters matter in terms of the number and types of expected DDIs, and may possibly explain observed differences in health outcomes.

Inspired by Curriculum Learning, we propose a consecutive (i.e., image-to-text-to-text) generation framework where we divide the problem of radiology report generation into two steps. Contrary to generating the full radiology report from the image at once, the model generates global concepts from the image in the first step and then reforms them into finer and coherent texts using a transformer architecture. We follow the transformer-based sequence-to-sequence paradigm at each step. We improve upon the state-of-the-art on two benchmark datasets., Comment: Accepted to findings of EMNLP 2021

Background: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) refer to processes triggered by the administration of two or more drugs leading to side effects beyond those observed when drugs are administered by themselves. Due to the massive number of possible drug pairs, it is nearly impossible to experimentally test all combinations and discover previously unobserved side effects. Therefore, machine learning based methods are being used to address this issue. Methods: We propose a Siamese self-attention multi-modal neural network for DDI prediction that integrates multiple drug similarity measures that have been derived from a comparison of drug characteristics including drug targets, pathways and gene expression profiles. Results: Our proposed DDI prediction model provides multiple advantages: 1) It is trained end-to-end, overcoming limitations of models composed of multiple separate steps, 2) it offers model explainability via an Attention mechanism for identifying salient input features and 3) it achieves similar or better prediction performance (AUPR scores ranging from 0.77 to 0.92) compared to state-of-the-art DDI models when tested on various benchmark datasets. Novel DDI predictions are further validated using independent data resources. Conclusions: We find that a Siamese multi-modal neural network is able to accurately predict DDIs and that an Attention mechanism, typically used in the Natural Language Processing domain, can be beneficially applied to aid in DDI model explainability.

Healthcare professionals have long envisioned using the enormous processing powers of computers to discover new facts and medical knowledge locked inside electronic health records. These vast medical archives contain time-resolved information about medical visits, tests and procedures, as well as outcomes, which together form individual patient journeys. By assessing the similarities among these journeys, it is possible to uncover clusters of common disease trajectories with shared health outcomes. The assignment of patient journeys to specific clusters may in turn serve as the basis for personalized outcome prediction and treatment selection. This procedure is a non-trivial computational problem, as it requires the comparison of patient data with multi-dimensional and multi-modal features that are captured at different times and resolutions. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the tools and methods that are used in patient similarity analysis with longitudinal data and discuss its potential for improving clinical decision making.

Patients increasingly turn to search engines and online content before, or in place of, talking with a health professional. Low quality health information, which is common on the internet, presents risks to the patient in the form of misinformation and a possibly poorer relationship with their physician. To address this, the DISCERN criteria (developed at University of Oxford) are used to evaluate the quality of online health information. However, patients are unlikely to take the time to apply these criteria to the health websites they visit. We built an automated implementation of the DISCERN instrument (Brief version) using machine learning models. We compared the performance of a traditional model (Random Forest) with that of a hierarchical encoder attention-based neural network (HEA) model using two language embeddings, BERT and BioBERT. The HEA BERT and BioBERT models achieved average F1-macro scores across all criteria of 0.75 and 0.74, respectively, outperforming the Random Forest model (average F1-macro = 0.69). Overall, the neural network based models achieved 81% and 86% average accuracy at 100% and 80% coverage, respectively, compared to 94% manual rating accuracy. The attention mechanism implemented in the HEA architectures not only provided 'model explainability' by identifying reasonable supporting sentences for the documents fulfilling the Brief DISCERN criteria, but also boosted F1 performance by 0.05 compared to the same architecture without an attention mechanism. Our research suggests that it is feasible to automate online health information quality assessment, which is an important step towards empowering patients to become informed partners in the healthcare process.

Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of hospital admissions in the US. Readmission within 30 days after a HF hospitalization is both a recognized indicator for disease progression and a source of considerable financial burden to the healthcare system. Consequently, the identification of patients at risk for readmission is a key step in improving disease management and patient outcome. In this work, we used a large administrative claims dataset to (1)explore the systematic application of neural network-based models versus logistic regression for predicting 30 days all-cause readmission after discharge from a HF admission, and (2)to examine the additive value of patients' hospitalization timelines on prediction performance. Based on data from 272,778 (49% female) patients with a mean (SD) age of 73 years (14) and 343,328 HF admissions (67% of total admissions), we trained and tested our predictive readmission models following a stratified 5-fold cross-validation scheme. Among the deep learning approaches, a recurrent neural network (RNN) combined with conditional random fields (CRF) model (RNNCRF) achieved the best performance in readmission prediction with 0.642 AUC (95% CI, 0.640-0.645). Other models, such as those based on RNN, convolutional neural networks and CRF alone had lower performance, with a non-timeline based model (MLP) performing worst. A competitive model based on logistic regression with LASSO achieved a performance of 0.643 AUC (95%CI, 0.640-0.646). We conclude that data from patient timelines improve 30 day readmission prediction for neural network-based models, that a logistic regression with LASSO has equal performance to the best neural network model and that the use of administrative data result in competitive performance compared to published approaches based on richer clinical datasets.