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Establishing a universal indicator of estuary health is an ongoing challenge for coastal ecology that is made more pressing due to the threat that climate change and anthropogenic activity pose to them. Historically, estuarine health was measured through basic physical, chemical, and biological traits, which have been used to routinely monitor estuaries for more than 30 years. However, it is unclear if they are dynamic enough to accurately assess ecosystem health changes driven by the pressures of climate change and anthropogenic activity. Measuring estuarine health indicators and noting incipient indicators relevant to the evolving threats of climate- and anthropogenic-related stressors on estuarine ecosystems is vital for safeguarding them into the future. Monitoring the presence and vitality of disease in estuarine ecosystems may prove to be a significant indicator of estuarine health. Here we review 22 years of literature (354 papers) to identify the role of marine diseases as critical indicators of long-term estuary health compared to traditional methods, with the goal of identifying a key indicator and underlying unifier of other health metrics. As indicators of both general ecosystem health and of multiple other stressors, diseases play a disproportionately significant role in estuary health in the face of climate- and anthropogenic-related stressors. Marine diseases are a unifier of structural and functional estuary health indicators and must be observed and modeled further.

Marine CO _2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m ^−3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO _2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr ^−1 ) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km ^2 ) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO _2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m ^−2 yr ^−1 , higher than the 63 mmol m ^−2 yr ^−1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO _2 yr ^−1 . It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO _2 yr ^−1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO _2 yr ^−1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO _2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Shallow estuarine habitats are globally undergoing rapid changes due to climate change and anthropogenic influences, resulting in spatiotemporal shifts in distribution and habitat extent. Yet, scientists and managers do not always have rapidly available data to track habitat changes in real-time. In this study, we apply a novel and a state-of-the-art image segmentation machine learning technique (DeepLab) to two years of high-resolution drone-based imagery of a marine flowering plant species (eelgrass, a temperate seagrass). We apply the model to eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows in the Morro Bay estuary, California, an estuary that has undergone large eelgrass declines and the subsequent recovery of seagrass meadows in the last decade. The model accurately classified eelgrass across a range of conditions and sizes from meadow-scale to small-scale patches that are less than a meter in size. The model recall, precision, and F1 scores were 0.954, 0.723, and 0.809, respectively, when using human-annotated training data and random assessment points. All our accuracy values were comparable to or demonstrated greater accuracy than other models for similar seagrass systems. This study demonstrates the potential for advanced image segmentation machine learning methods to accurately support the active monitoring and analysis of seagrass dynamics from drone-based images, a framework likely applicable to similar marine ecosystems globally, and one that can provide quantitative and accurate data for long-term management strategies that seek to protect these vital ecosystems.

In recent decades, computer vision has proven remarkably effective in addressing diverse issues in public health, from determining the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of diseases in humans to predicting infectious disease outbreaks. Here, we investigate whether convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can also demonstrate effectiveness in classifying the environmental stages of parasites of public health importance and their invertebrate hosts. We used schistosomiasis as a reference model. Schistosomiasis is a debilitating parasitic disease transmitted to humans via snail intermediate hosts. The parasite affects more than 200 million people in tropical and subtropical regions. We trained our CNN, a feed-forward neural network, on a limited dataset of 5,500 images of snails and 5,100 images of cercariae obtained from schistosomiasis transmission sites in the Senegal River Basin, a region in western Africa that is hyper-endemic for the disease. The image set included both images of two snail genera that are relevant to schistosomiasis transmission – that is, Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi – as well as snail images that are non-component hosts for human schistosomiasis. Cercariae shed from Bi. pfeifferi and Bulinus spp. snails were classified into 11 categories, of which only two, S. haematobium and S. mansoni, are major etiological agents of human schistosomiasis. The algorithms, trained on 80% of the snail and parasite dataset, achieved 99% and 91% accuracy for snail and parasite classification, respectively, when used on the hold-out validation dataset – a performance comparable to that of experienced parasitologists. The promising results of this proof-of-concept study suggests that this CNN model, and potentially similar replicable models, have the potential to support the classification of snails and parasite of medical importance. In remote field settings where machine learning algorithms can be deployed on cost-effective and widely used mobile devices, such as smartphones, these models can be a valuable complement to laboratory identification by trained technicians. Future efforts must be dedicated to increasing dataset sizes for model training and validation, as well as testing these algorithms in diverse transmission settings and geographies.

Epidemiological models are dominated by compartmental models, of which SIR formulations are the most commonly used. These formulations can be continuous or discrete (in either the state-variable values or time), deterministic or stochastic, or spatially homogeneous or heterogeneous, the latter often embracing a network formulation. Here we review the continuous and discrete deterministic and discrete stochastic formulations of the SIR dynamical systems models, and we outline how they can be easily and rapidly constructed using Numerus Model Builder, a graphically-driven coding platform. We also demonstrate how to extend these models to a metapopulation setting using NMB network and mapping tools. Keywords: SIR, SEIR models, Stochastic simulation, Dynamic networks, Compartmental models

Schistosomiasis is a debilitating parasitic disease of poverty that affects more than 200 million people worldwide, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, and is clearly associated with the construction of dams and water resource management infrastructure in tropical and subtropical areas. Changes to hydrology and salinity linked to water infrastructure development may create conditions favorable to the aquatic vegetation that is suitable habitat for the intermediate snail hosts of schistosome parasites. With thousands of small and large water reservoirs, irrigation canals, and dams developed or under construction in Africa, it is crucial to accurately assess the spatial distribution of high-risk environments that are habitat for freshwater snail intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis in rapidly changing ecosystems. Yet, standard techniques for monitoring snails are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and provide information limited to the small areas that can be manually sampled. Consequently, in low-income countries where schistosomiasis control is most needed, there are formidable challenges to identifying potential transmission hotspots for targeted medical and environmental interventions. In this study, we developed a new framework to map the spatial distribution of suitable snail habitat across large spatial scales in the Senegal River Basin by integrating satellite data, high-definition, low-cost drone imagery, and an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered computer vision technique called semantic segmentation. A deep learning model (U-Net) was built to automatically analyze high-resolution satellite imagery to produce segmentation maps of aquatic vegetation, with a fast and robust generalized prediction that proved more accurate than a more commonly used random forest approach. Accurate and up-to-date knowledge of areas at highest risk for disease transmission can increase the effectiveness of control interventions by targeting habitat of disease-carrying snails. With the deployment of this new framework, local governments or health actors might better target environmental interventions to where and when they are most needed in an integrated effort to reach the goal of schistosomiasis elimination.