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Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, along with a higher-frequency regressor, e.g. daily temperature. Applied researchers then face a problem of selecting a model to characterize the nonlinear relationship between the outcome and the high-frequency regressor to make a policy recommendation based on the model-implied damage function. We show that existing model selection criteria are only suitable for the policy objective if one of the models under consideration nests the true model. If all models are seen as imperfect approximations of the true nonlinear relationship, the model that performs well in the historical climate conditions is not guaranteed to perform well at the projected climate. We therefore propose a new criterion, the proximity-weighted mean squared error (PWMSE) that directly targets precision of the damage function at the projected future climate. To make this criterion feasible, we assign higher weights to historical years that can serve as “weather analogs” to the projected future climate when evaluating competing models using the PWMSE. We show that our approach selects the best approximate regression model that has the smallest weighted squared error of predicted impacts for a projected future climate. A simulation study and an application revisiting the impact of climate change on agricultural production illustrate the empirical relevance of our theoretical analysis.

We establish a general theory of optimality for block bootstrap distribution estimation for sample quantiles under mild strong mixing conditions. In contrast to existing results, we study the block bootstrap for varying numbers of blocks. This corresponds to a hybrid between the sub- sampling bootstrap and the moving block bootstrap, in which the number of blocks is between 1 and the ratio of sample size to block length. The hybrid block bootstrap is shown to give theoretical benefits, and startling improvements in accuracy in distribution estimation in important practical settings. The conclusion that bootstrap samples should be of smaller size than the original sample has significant implications for computational efficiency and scalability of bootstrap methodologies with dependent data. Our main theorem determines the optimal number of blocks and block length to achieve the best possible convergence rate for the block bootstrap distribution estimator for sample quantiles. We propose an intuitive method for empirical selection of the optimal number and length of blocks, and demonstrate its value in a nontrivial example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: The transforming growth factor beta superfamily member macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1) is expressed upon macrophage activation, regulated by the p53 pathway, and linked to clinical events in atherosclerosis and cancer. Since rheumatoid arthritis (RA) shares similar etiopathologic mechanisms with the above diseases, we sought to determine the clinical utility of determining MIC-1 serum levels and MIC-1 genotype in the management of RA. METHODS: Ninety-one RA patients were recruited. Serum was collected from 83 of these patients and synovial biopsy samples were collected from the remaining 8 patients. Of the 83 patients from whom serum was collected, 61 were treated on an outpatient basis (defined as having nonsevere disease), and 22 patients went on to undergo hemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) (defined as having severe disease). RESULTS: Serum levels of MIC-1 were higher in RA patients and reflected disease severity independently of classic disease markers. MIC-1 was detected in rheumatoid synovial specimens, and allelic variation of MIC-1 was associated with earlier erosive disease and severe treatment-resistant chronic RA. Additionally, algorithms including serum and/or allelic variation in MIC-1 predicted response to HSCT, the presence of severe disease, and joint erosions. CONCLUSION: Determination of serum levels of MIC-1 and MIC-1 genotype may be clinically useful in the management of RA as well as in selection of patients for HSCT, since they predict disease course and response to therapy. The data indicate a potential role for MIC-1 in RA pathogenesis. These results warrant larger prospective studies to fully delineate and confirm a role for MIC-1 genotyping and serum estimation in patient selection for HSCT and in the management of RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Machine learning models were used to discover novel disease trajectories for autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease., Methods: Longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET), and fluorodeoxyglucose PET were acquired in 131 mutation carriers and 74 non-carriers from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network; the groups were matched for age, education, sex, and apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE ε4). A deep neural network was trained to predict disease progression for each modality. Relief algorithms identified the strongest predictors of mutation status., Results: The Relief algorithm identified the caudate, cingulate, and precuneus as the strongest predictors among all modalities. The model yielded accurate results for predicting future Pittsburgh compound B (R 2  = 0.95), fluorodeoxyglucose (R 2  = 0.93), and atrophy (R 2  = 0.95) in mutation carriers compared to non-carriers., Discussion: Results suggest a sigmoidal trajectory for amyloid, a biphasic response for metabolism, and a gradual decrease in volume, with disease progression primarily in subcortical, middle frontal, and posterior parietal regions., (© 2021 the Alzheimer's Association.)

The TGF-b superfamily cytokine MIC-1/GDF15 circulates in all humans and when overproduced in cancer leads to anorexia/cachexia, by direct action on brain feeding centres. In these studies we have examined the role of physiologically relevant levels of MIC-1/GDF15 in the regulation of appetite, body weight and basal metabolic rate. MIC-1/GDF15 gene knockout mice (MIC-1(-/-)) weighed more and had increased adiposity, which was associated with increased spontaneous food intake. Female MIC-1(-/-) mice exhibited some additional alterations in reduced basal energy expenditure and physical activity, possibly owing to the associated decrease in total lean mass. Further, infusion of human recombinant MIC-1/GDF15 sufficient to raise serum levels in MIC-1(-/-) mice to within the normal human range reduced body weight and food intake. Taken together, our findings suggest that MIC-1/GDF15 is involved in the physiological regulation of appetite and energy storage.

Intracellular chloride channel protein 1 (CLIC1) is a 241 amino acid protein of the glutathione S transferase fold family with redox- and pH-dependent membrane association and chloride ion channel activity. Whilst CLIC proteins are evolutionarily conserved in Metazoa, indicating an important role, little is known about their biology. CLIC1 was first cloned on the basis of increased expression in activated macrophages. We therefore examined its subcellular localisation in murine peritoneal macrophages by immunofluorescence confocal microscopy. In resting cells, CLIC1 is observed in punctate cytoplasmic structures that do not colocalise with markers for endosomes or secretory vesicles. However, when these macrophages phagocytose serum-opsonised zymosan, CLIC1 translocates onto the phagosomal membrane. Macrophages from CLIC1(-/-) mice display a defect in phagosome acidification as determined by imaging live cells phagocytosing zymosan tagged with the pH-sensitive fluorophore Oregon Green. This altered phagosomal acidification was not accompanied by a detectable impairment in phagosomal-lysosomal fusion. However, consistent with a defect in acidification, CLIC1(-/-) macrophages also displayed impaired phagosomal proteolytic capacity and reduced reactive oxygen species production. Further, CLIC1(-/-) mice were protected from development of serum transfer induced K/BxN arthritis. These data all point to an important role for CLIC1 in regulating macrophage function through its ion channel activity and suggest it is a suitable target for the development of anti-inflammatory drugs.

Aim: MIC-1/GDF15 is a member of the TGF-b superfamily, which is thought to have pleiotropic roles in stress responses, inflammation, tissue injury and repair, energy homeostasis, and malignancy. MIC-1/GDF15 was recently identified as a new biomarker for the development of cardiovascular events and the outcome of atherosclerotic disease therapy. The aim of our study was to determine if MIC-1 also directly exerts pro- or antiatherogenic properties during the development of atherosclerosis., Methods and Results: We investigated the effect of transgenic overexpression of MIC-1 in macrophages in the ApoE(-/-) mouse model of atherosclerosis. After 6 months of high-fat diet, MIC-1/GDF15 transgenic ApoE(-/-) mice had smaller atherosclerotic lesions; however, no differences in lesion composition, pro- or anti-inflammatory cytokine production, or serum levels of lipids or cytokines were detected., Conclusions: Our results suggest that MIC-1 has an overall protective effect on the disease process, but further studies will be required to define its mechanism of action., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15), a divergent member of the TGF-β superfamily, is over-expressed by many common cancers including those of the prostate (PCa) and its expression is linked to cancer outcome. We have evaluated the effect of MIC-1/GDF15 overexpression on PCa development and spread in the TRAMP transgenic model of spontaneous prostate cancer. TRAMP mice were crossed with MIC-1/GDF15 overexpressing mice (MIC-1(fms)) to produce syngeneic TRAMP(fmsmic-1) mice. Survival rate, prostate tumor size, histopathological grades and extent of distant organ metastases were compared. Metastasis of TC1-T5, an androgen independent TRAMP cell line that lacks MIC-1/GDF15 expression, was compared by injecting intravenously into MIC-1(fms) and syngeneic C57BL/6 mice. Whilst TRAMP(fmsmic-1) survived on average 7.4 weeks longer, had significantly smaller genitourinary (GU) tumors and lower PCa histopathological grades than TRAMP mice, more of these mice developed distant organ metastases. Additionally, a higher number of TC1-T5 lung tumor colonies were observed in MIC-1(fms) mice than syngeneic WT C57BL/6 mice. Our studies strongly suggest that MIC-1/GDF15 has complex actions on tumor behavior: it limits local tumor growth but may with advancing disease, promote metastases. As MIC-1/GDF15 is induced by all cancer treatments and metastasis is the major cause of cancer treatment failure and cancer deaths, these results, if applicable to humans, may have a direct impact on patient care.

Food intake and body weight are controlled by a variety of central and peripheral factors, but the exact mechanisms behind these processes are still not fully understood. Here we show that that macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15), known to have anorexigenic effects particularly in cancer, provides protection against the development of obesity. Both under a normal chow diet and an obesogenic diet, the transgenic overexpression of MIC-1/GDF15 in mice leads to decreased body weight and fat mass. This lean phenotype was associated with decreased spontaneous but not fasting-induced food intake, on a background of unaltered energy expenditure and reduced physical activity. Importantly, the overexpression of MIC-1/GDF15 improved glucose tolerance, both under normal and high fat-fed conditions. Altogether, this work shows that the molecule MIC-1/GDF15 might be beneficial for the treatment of obesity as well as perturbations in glucose homeostasis.

Background: Elevated macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15) levels in serum mediate anorexia and weight loss in some cancer patients and similarly elevated levels occur in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Serum MIC-1/GDF15 is also elevated in chronic inflammatory diseases and predicts atherosclerotic events independently of traditional risk factors. The relationship between chronic inflammation, decreasing body mass index (BMI) and increased mortality in CKD is not well understood and is being actively investigated. MIC-1/GDF15 may link these features of CKD., Methods: Cohorts of incident dialysis patients from Sweden (n = 98) and prevalent hemodialysis patients from the USA (n = 381) had serum MIC-1/GDF15, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and BMI measured at study entry. Additional surrogate markers of nutritional adequacy, body composition and inflammation were assessed in Swedish patients. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality., Results: In the Swedish cohort, serum MIC-1/GDF15 was associated with decreasing BMI, measures of nutrition and markers of oxidative stress and inflammation. Additionally, high serum MIC-1/GDF15 levels identified patients with evidence of protein-energy wasting who died in the first 3 years of dialysis. The ability of serum MIC-1/GDF15 to predict mortality in the first 3 years of dialysis was confirmed in the USA cohort. In both cohorts, serum MIC-1/GDF15 level was an independent marker of mortality when adjusted for age, CRP, BMI, history of diabetes mellitus and/or cardiovascular disease and glomerular filtration rate or length of time on dialysis at study entry., Conclusions: MIC-1/GDF15 is a novel independent serum marker of mortality in CKD capable of significantly improving the mortality prediction of other established markers. MIC-1/GDF15 may mediate protein-energy wasting in CKD and represent a novel therapeutic target for this fatal complication.

Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15) is associated with cardiovascular disease, inflammation, body weight regulation and cancer. Its serum levels facilitate the diagnosis and prognosis of cancer and vascular disease. Furthermore, its serum levels are a powerful predictor of all-cause mortality, suggesting a fundamental role in biological processes associated with ageing. In cancer, the data available suggest that MIC-1/GDF15 is antitumorigenic, but this may not always be the case as disease progresses. Cancer promoting effects of MIC-1/GDF15 may be due, in part, to effects on antitumour immunity. This is suggested by the anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive properties of MIC-1/GDF15 in animal models of atherosclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis. Furthermore, in late-stage cancer, large amounts of MIC-1/GDF15 in the circulation suppress appetite and mediate cancer anorexia/cachexia, which can be reversed by monoclonal antibodies in animals. Available data suggest MIC-1/GDF15 may be an important molecule mediating the interplay between cancer, obesity and chronic inflammation.

CLIC1 belongs to a family of highly conserved and widely expressed intracellular chloride ion channel proteins existing in both soluble and membrane integrated forms. To study the physiological and biological role of CLIC1 in vivo, we undertook conditional gene targeting to engineer Clic1 gene knock-out mice. This represents creation of the first gene knock-out of a vertebrate CLIC protein family member. We first generated a Clic1 Knock-in (Clic1(FN)) allele, followed by Clic1 knock-out (Clic1(-/-)) mice by crossing Clic1(FN) allele with TNAP-cre mice, resulting in germline gene deletion through Cre-mediated recombination. Mice heterozygous or homozygous for these alleles are viable and fertile and appear normal. However, Clic1(-) (/-) mice show a mild platelet dysfunction characterized by prolonged bleeding times and decreased platelet activation in response to adenosine diphosphate stimulation linked to P2Y(12) receptor signaling., ((c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Anorexia and weight loss are part of the wasting syndrome of late-stage cancer, are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in cancer, and are thought to be cytokine mediated. Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1) is produced by many cancers. Examination of sera from individuals with advanced prostate cancer showed a direct relationship between MIC-1 abundance and cancer-associated weight loss. In mice with xenografted prostate tumors, elevated MIC-1 levels were also associated with marked weight, fat and lean tissue loss that was mediated by decreased food intake and was reversed by administration of antibody to MIC-1. Additionally, normal mice given systemic MIC-1 and transgenic mice overexpressing MIC-1 showed hypophagia and reduced body weight. MIC-1 mediates its effects by central mechanisms that implicate the hypothalamic transforming growth factor-beta receptor II, extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1 and 2, signal transducer and activator of transcription-3, neuropeptide Y and pro-opiomelanocortin. Thus, MIC-1 is a newly defined central regulator of appetite and a potential target for the treatment of both cancer anorexia and weight loss, as well as of obesity.

Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1), a transforming growth factor-beta superfamily cytokine, is involved in tumor pathogenesis, and its measurement can be used as a clinical tool for the diagnosis and management of a wide range of cancers. Although generally considered to be part of the cell's antitumorigenic repertoire, MIC-1 secretion, processing, and latent storage suggest a complex, dynamic variability in MIC-1 bioavailability in the tumor microenvironment, potentially modulating tumor progression and invasiveness.

The extracellular matrix (ECM) is a reservoir of cellular binding proteins and growth factors that are critical for normal cell behavior, and aberrations in the ECM invariably accompany malignancies such as prostate cancer. Carcinomas commonly overexpress macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1), a proapoptotic and antitumorigenic transforming growth factor-beta superfamily cytokine. Here we show that MIC-1 is often secreted in an unprocessed propeptide containing form. It is variably processed intracellularly, with unprocessed forms being secreted from several tumor lines, including prostate carcinoma lines, PC-3 and LNCaP. Once secreted, only unprocessed proMIC-1 binds ECM, demonstrating for the first time the occurrence of extracellular stores of MIC-1. The propeptide mediates this association via its COOH-terminal 89 amino acids. Xenograft models bearing tumors secreting various engineered forms of MIC-1 show that the propeptide regulates the balance between ECM stores and circulating serum levels of mature MIC-1 in vivo. The absence of propeptide results in approximately 20-fold increase in serum MIC-1 levels. The significance of stromal MIC-1 stores was evaluated in prostate cancer tissue cores, which show major variation in stromal levels of MIC-1. Stromal MIC-1 levels are linked to prostate cancer outcome following radical prostatectomy, with decreasing stromal levels providing an important independent predictor of disease relapse. In low-grade localized prostate cancer (Gleason sum score < or = 6), the level of MIC-1 stromal stores was the best predictor of future relapse when compared with all other clinicopathologic variables. The secretion and ECM association of unprocessed proMIC-1 is likely to play a central role in modulating local bioavailability of MIC-1 which can affect patient outcome in prostate cancer and other epithelial tumors.

Knowledge of population major histocompatibility complex gene frequencies is important for construction of organ donor pools and for studies of disease association. Human leukocyte antigen DRB1 (HLA-DRB1), HLA-DQB1, and TNFalpha -308 (G-A) promoter genetic typing was performed in 112 healthy, unrelated African Americans (AAs) from the southeastern United States. Allele frequencies were compared with published frequency data from other AA populations. Our AA population had the highest frequency of HLA- DRB1*09 (6.7%) reported in any AA population. The frequency of the TNF alpha -308A polymorphism was also high (14.4%), when compared with published frequencies in AAs. Significant regional differences in the distribution of most HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles were observed in all AA populations examined. The AA HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 frequencies also differed from published Caucasian frequencies. This is the first report describing the distribution of TNF alpha promoter alleles in the Southeastern United States. The high DRB1*09 and TNF alpha -308A allele frequencies of our population most resemble the frequencies of these alleles in certain West African populations. These varying major histocompatibility complex gene frequencies may reflect different regional population structures among AAs in the United States, which may be due to differences in ancestral origins, migration, and racial admixture.

Objective: To characterize allele frequencies of known single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR) genes in African Americans with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), healthy African Americans, and healthy Caucasians., Methods: One TNFRSF1B SNP (196 G/T) that influences susceptibility to familial RA in Caucasians and 3 SNPs in the 5' flanking region of the TNFRSF1A gene (-609G/T, -580A/G, and -383A/C) were genotyped in 108 African Americans with RA, 62 healthy African Americans, and 59 healthy Caucasians., Results: There were no differences in TNFRSF1A allele frequencies between African Americans with RA and healthy African Americans. Allele frequencies were strikingly different, however, between healthy African Americans and healthy Caucasians: 0.13 versus 0.42 for -609T, 0.49 versus 0 for -580G, and 0.14 versus 0 for -383C. We identified 4 novel haplotypes defined by the 3 TNFRSF1A SNPs, the distribution of which was markedly different in healthy Caucasians and healthy African Americans (P = 0.000001 by chi-square test-. The frequencies of the TNFRSF1B 196 genotypes were similar in African Americans with RA and healthy African Americans but differed between healthy African Americans and healthy Caucasians (P = 0.05)., Conclusion: Although we observed no associations between known TNFR SNPs or haplotypes and RA, significant racial differences were observed at both loci. Comparison of these data with other published frequencies of TNFRSF1A and TNFRSF1B genotypes according to race suggests that the distribution in African American, Caucasian, and Asian populations differs significantly. These striking racial/ethnic differences in TNFR SNP frequencies may influence the likelihood of familial RA, severe disease, or response to TNF inhibitors and may have important evolutionary implications.

Objectives: Little data is available on the prevalence and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or the genetic and environmental factors that influence RA risk and severity in non-Caucasian populations. The prevalence of RA in Caucasians and some Native American populations is 1% or more; in contrast, low prevalences of RA have been reported in some African populations. We determined the hospital incidence (HI) and period prevalence (PP) of RA in African Colombians in Quibdo, Colombia, by using data collected at the Hospital San Francisco de Asis, a primary-to-tertiary care center. Genetic and immunologic studies of factors that influence RA risk and severity, such as HLA genes, immunoglobulin-A (IgA) rheumatoid factor (RF), and antikeratin antibodies (AKA) were performed. African Colombians with RA also were compared with Mestizo RA patients from Medellín, Colombia., Methods: To determine the HI, all the outpatient charts for 1995 were reviewed (n = 3,044). PP during 1996 (Jan-Dec) was assessed by stratified sampling of all African Colombians aged 18 or more having arthralgia. Participants completed a survey and a pretested standard questionnaire, had hands and feet X-rays, and provided a blood sample. Total and IgA RF were measured by turbidimetry and ELISA, respectively; AKA were assessed by indirect immunofluorescence on rat esophagus. HLA-DRB1 and DQB1 alleles were determined by polymerase chain reaction technique with primers of specific sequence and by reverse dot blot., Results: The HI was 0.65 cases per 1,000 person years. There were 321 individuals with arthralgia (0.3%; 95% CI, 0.28-0.3), 18 of whom fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA (PP in the general population, 0.01%; 95% CI, 0.008-0.02). Lower erosion scores were seen in African Colombian patients compared to Mestizos (n = 56), although duration of disease was similar in each group. No association between any HLA allele and RA risk or RA severity or between autoantibodies and RA severity was observed in African Colombians. Comparisons showed no significant differences between African Colombians and Mestizo patients in the presence of RF (total and IgA), AKA, age at onset, extra-articular manifestations, formal education level, and history of malaria., Conclusions: These results suggest that RA in African Colombian patients from Quibdo is rare, may be less severe in terms of radiographic damage than in Colombian Mestizo patients, and lacks association to HLA-DRB1 and DQB1 alleles. Additionally, RF (total and IgA) and AKA are not markers of progression and activity of the disease in this population., (Copyright 2001 by W.B. Saunders Company)

Dermal fibroblasts from a Chinese Ehlers-Danlos syndrome type VII patient synthesized approximately equal amounts of normal pro-alpha 2(I) chains of type I procollagen and abnormal ones with electrophoretic mobility of pN alpha 2(I) chains, in which the amino-propeptide (N-propeptide) was retained. Reverse-transcriptase PCR analysis of the proband's RNA showed outsplicing of the 54 base exon 6 in half of the pro-alpha 2(I) mRNAs. Exon 6 encodes 18 amino acids of the N-telopeptide which contains the procollagen N-proteinase cleavage site and a cross-link precursor lysine. Loss of these sequences would result in failure to cleave the amino-propeptide of pro-alpha 2(I) and the accumulation of pN-alpha 2(I) chains. Nucleotide sequencing analyses of the proband's COL1A2 gene showed the presence of a T to C transition at position +2 of intron 6 in one allele and the proband is heterozygous for the defect. This mutation which destroyed the consensus GT dinucleotide at the 5' splice donor site of the intron is responsible for the loss of exon 6 by exon skipping. Electron microscopic analysis of the patient's dermis showed the presence of abnormal collagen I fibrils of irregular diameter and circularity. This mutation in COL1A2 in an EDS VII patient is the first reported case in the Chinese population and is identical to one reported for another EDS-VII (Libyan) patient. The occurrence of an identical mutation in two probands of different ethnic origin is direct evidence that the mutant genotype is the cause of the EDS VII phenotype.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A two-site monoclonal antibody (MAB) quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was developed that enables quantitation of toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 (TSST-1) down to 0.25 ng/ml and detection of TSST-1 to 0.06 ng/ml. Interference by Staphylococcus protein A was eliminated by incorporating normal rabbit serum into the test sample diluent. In the process of selecting an MAB pair for a two-site 'sandwich'-type ELISA, the MABs were screened for inhibition or common epitope binding. Some MABs that reacted with antigen that was adsorbed to a polystyrene well would not bind to antigen that was presented in a more natural configuration, as in the case of antigen immobilized by trapping antibody. Conversely, MABs that reacted with antigen that was immobilized by another antibody did not all function as trapping antibodies when adsorbed directly to a polystyrene surface. ELISAs that used polyclonal antibodies in the capture mode and MAB conjugate as the second antibody were generally more sensitive than were those that used polyclonal antibodies for both capture and indicator functions. MAB screening and selection schemes should be carefully designed to evaluate MABs in the mode in which they will be used in the final assay.