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Thermal behaviors significantly affect the contact stiffness and position accuracy of the rolling linear guide, which worsen the performance of the precision machinery. In this paper, based on the modified lumped capacitance method (MLCM) and finite element method (FEM), a thermal model of rolling linear guides has been formulated in terms of the geometric parameters, friction, gyroscopic moment, and loading conditions. Experimental results show that the thermal model can well predict the real-time temperature variation under different working conditions. Further analysis shows that, the applied vertical load, carriage velocity, and toque load significantly influence the temperature variation of linear guides, while the influence of the torque load on temperature variation decreases with increasing vertical load levels. Besides, the reasons of the steady-state temperature variation considering the load distribution model are also discussed.