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Complex systems often present higher-order interactions which require us to go beyond their description in terms of pairwise networks. Triadic interactions are a fundamental type of higher-order interaction that occurs when one node regulates the interaction between two other nodes. Triadic interactions are a fundamental type of higher-order networks, found in a large variety of biological systems, from neuron-glia interactions to gene-regulation and ecosystems. However, triadic interactions have been so far mostly neglected. In this article, we propose a theoretical principle to model and mine triadic interactions from node metadata, and we apply this framework to gene expression data finding new candidates for triadic interactions relevant for Acute Myeloid Leukemia. Our work reveals important aspects of higher-order triadic interactions often ignored, which can transform our understanding of complex systems and be applied to a large variety of systems ranging from biology to the climate.

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system, the understanding and in particular the predicting of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges for both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge for a better understanding of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and Earth geometric relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as, critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, as well as entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems (climate, earthquakes, etc.). Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics approaches can be useful in the field of Earth system science.

Estimating the outcome of a given dynamical process from structural features is a key unsolved challenge in network science. The goal is hindered by difficulties associated to nonlinearities, correlations and feedbacks between the structure and dynamics of complex systems. In this work, we develop an approach based on machine learning algorithms that is shown to provide an answer to the previous challenge. Specifically, we show that it is possible to estimate the outbreak size of a disease starting from a single node as well as the degree of synchronicity of a system made up of Kuramoto oscillators. In doing so, we show which topological features of the network are key for this estimation, and provide a rank of the importance of network metrics with higher accuracy than previously done. Our approach is general and can be applied to any dynamical process running on top of complex networks. Likewise, our work constitutes an important step towards the application of machine learning methods to unravel dynamical patterns emerging in complex networked systems., Comment: 5 pages including 6 figures

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite the development of various dynamical and statistical prediction models in the recent decades, the ``spring predictability barrier'' (SPB) remains a great challenge for long (over 6-month) lead-time forecasting. To overcome this barrier, here we develop an analysis tool, the System Sample Entropy (SysSampEn), to measure the complexity (disorder) of the system composed of temperature anomaly time series in the Nino 3.4 region. When applying this tool to several near surface air-temperature and sea surface temperature datasets, we find that in all datasets a strong positive correlation exists between the magnitude of El Nino and the previous calendar year's SysSampEn (complexity). We show that this correlation allows to forecast the magnitude of an El Nino with a prediction horizon of 1 year and high accuracy (i.e., Root Mean Square Error $=0.23^\circ C$ for the average of the individual datasets forecasts). For the on-going 2018 El Nino event, our method forecasts a weak El Nino with a magnitude of $1.11\pm 0.23^\circ C$. Our framework presented here not only facilitates a long--term forecasting of the El Nino magnitude but can potentially also be used as a measure for the complexity of other natural or engineering complex systems.

Recurrence entropy $(\cal S)$ is a novel time series complexity quantifier based on recurrence microstates. Here we show that $\mathsf{max}(\cal S)$ is a \textit{parameter-free} quantifier of time correlation of stochastic and chaotic signals, at the same time that it evaluates property changes of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the entire data set. $\mathsf{max}(\cal S)$ can distinguish distinct temporal correlations of stochastic signals following a power-law spectrum, $\displaystyle P(f) \propto 1/f^\alpha$ even when shuffled versions of the signals are used. Such behavior is related to its ability to quantify distinct subsets embedded in a time series. Applied to a deterministic system, the method brings new evidence about attractor properties and the degree of chaoticity. The development of a new parameter-free quantifier of stochastic and chaotic time series opens new perspectives to stochastic data and deterministic time series analyses and may find applications in many areas of science.

Synchronization of non-identical oscillators coupled through complex networks is an important example of collective behavior. It is interesting to ask how the structural organization of network interactions influences this process. Several studies have uncovered optimal topologies for synchronization by making purposeful alterations to a network. Yet, the connectivity patterns of many natural systems are often not static, but are rather modulated over time according to their dynamics. This co-evolution - and the extent to which the dynamics of the individual units can shape the organization of the network itself - is not well understood. Here, we study initially randomly connected but locally adaptive networks of Kuramoto oscillators. The system employs a co-evolutionary rewiring strategy that depends only on instantaneous, pairwise phase differences of neighboring oscillators, and that conserves the total number of edges, allowing the effects of local reorganization to be isolated. We find that a simple regulatory rule - which preserves connections between more out-of-phase oscillators while rewiring connections between more in-phase oscillators - can cause initially disordered networks to organize into more structured topologies that support enhanced synchronization dynamics. We examine how this process unfolds over time, finding both a dependence on the intrinsic frequencies of the oscillators and the global coupling. For large enough coupling and after sufficient adaptation, the resulting networks exhibit degree - frequency and frequency - neighbor frequency correlations. These properties have previously been associated with optimal synchronization or explosive transitions. By considering a time-dependent interplay between structure and dynamics, this work offers a mechanism through which emergent phenomena can arise in complex systems utilizing local rules., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures in the main; also includes and appendix and supplement

The mitigation of the effects of climate change on humankind is one of the most pressing and important collective governance problems nowadays$^{1-4}$. To explore different solutions and scenarios, previous works have framed this problem into a Public Goods Game (PGG), where a dilemma between short-term interests and long-term sustainability arises$^{5-9}$. In such a context, subjects are placed in groups and play a PGG with the aim of avoiding dangerous climate change impact. Here we report on a lab experiment designed to explore two important ingredients: costly punishment to free-riders and group size. Our results show that for high punishment risk, more groups succeed in achieving the global target, this finding being robust against group size. Interestingly enough, we also find a non-trivial effect of the size of the groups: the larger the size of the groups facing the dilemmas, the higher the punishment risk should be to achieve the desired goal. Overall, the results of the present study shed more light into possible deterrent effects of plausible measures that can be put in place when negotiating climate treaties and provide more hints regarding climate-related policies and strategies., Comment: 26 pages and 4 figures