Search

Abstract Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a Markov process, in which we assume that the births of the individuals follow a Poisson process with increasing intensity, lifespans of individuals are independent and can be characterized by a gamma–Gompertz distribution with time-dependent parameters. We utilize a dataset of the world’s oldest person title holders since 1955, and we compute the maximum likelihood estimate for the parameters iteratively by numerical integration. Based on our preliminary estimates, the model provides a good fit to the data and shows that the age of the oldest person alive increases over time in the future. The estimated parameters enable us to describe the distribution of the age of the record holder process at a future time point.

Introduction Asthma is the most prevalent obstructive pulmonary disease, with drastically improved treatment options over the past decades. However, there is still a proportion of patients with suboptimal level of asthma control, leading to multiple hospitalisation due to severe acute exacerbation (SAE) and earlier death. In our study, we aimed to assess the risk of SAEs and mortality in patients who suffered an SAE.Methods The database of the National Health Insurance Fund was used to retrospectively analyse the data of all asthmatic patients who had been hospitalised for an SAE between 2009 and 2019. We used a competing risk model to analyse the effect of each exacerbation on the risk of further SAEs with age, sex, Charlson index and the number of severe and moderate exacerbations included as covariates.Result Altogether, 9257 asthmatic patients suffered at least one exacerbation leading to hospitalisation during the study time. The majority (75.8%) were women, and the average age was 58.24 years. Most patients had at least one comorbidity. 3492 patients suffered at least one further exacerbation and 1193 patients died of any cause. In the competing risk model, each SAE increased the risk of further exacerbations (HR=2.078–7.026; p

Sustainable forestry is one of the most important challenges of the 21st century, which requires the cultivation of species adapted to the changing climate and, in the case of existing species, the selection of climate-resistant propagation materials. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most important hardwood tree species in Europe. Its ecological and economic importance is outstanding. The species, however, is significantly affected by the change in climate, so it is essential to select the appropriate propagating material for future cultivation and afforestation. The aim of this work was to measure and evaluate the polyphenolic composition of the leaves of different beech provenances to find relationships between average stem diameter, climate index (EQ), ABTS (2,2'-azino-di-(3-ethylbenzothiazoline)-6-sulfonic acid) antioxidant capacity and polyphenolic composition to assess the adaptability of the tested beech provenances using factor analysis. According to the results from the altogether 44 identified polyphenols, flavonoid (quercetin, kaempferol) glycosides and flavan-3-ol compounds were the strongest antioxidants, and the two types of compounds probably participate differently in the antioxidant defence system, but both have a significant role. A significant relationship between the concentration of individual polyphenols (Procyanidin B dimer 5, Feruloylthreonic acid, Unidentified 1) and average stem diameter was found: these compounds and factors can be chemical indicators of growth and climatic adaptation and can be used in predicting the future effects of climate change and in the future selection of beech propagation material.

Among the triangle congruence axioms, the side-side-angle (SsA) axiom states that two triangles are congruent if and only if two pairs of corresponding sides and the angles opposite the longer sides are equal. We construct two triangle sequences in which the items satisfy a modified condition. We require that the opposite angles of the shorter sides be equal. The locus of the intersection points of other sides of triangles is derived to be a hyperbola, and in a generalized form defined by a complete quadrilateral, it is a conic section.

Objectives: Recognition of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is crucial in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We conducted a nationwide epidemiological study to evaluate T2DM-associated CKD in Hungary between 2016 and 2020.Methods: Annual incidence and prevalence rates of registered CKD amongst all pharmacologically treated T2DM patients were analyzed in different age-groups by the central database of the Hungarian Health Insurance Fund Management. Statistical methods included Poisson regression, Bonferroni test, Chi-square test.Results: We found 499,029 T2DM patients and 48,902 CKD patients in 2016, and 586,075 T2DM patients and 38,347 CKD patients in 2020. The majority of all prevalent T2DM and CKD patients were older (aged 60–69 years: 34.1% and 25.8%; ≥70 years: 36.1% and 64.4%, respectively). The annual incidence of T2DM and incidence rates of CKD in T2DM decreased in 2017–2020 (p < 0.001). The annual prevalence of T2DM increased (p < 0.01), the prevalence rates of CKD in T2DM were low and decreased from 9.8% to 6.5% in 2016–2020 (p < 0.001).Conclusion: Incidence and prevalence of T2DM-associated CKD decreased significantly in Hungary in 2016–2020. Lower prevalence rates of CKD may suggest under-recognition and/or under-reporting.

Measurement(s) mortality Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) temporal interval • age • country Sample Characteristic - Organism Homo sapiens • Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15135684

Abstract Background The lack of classification by educational attainment in death and population exposure data at older ages is an important constraint for studying changes and patterns of mortality disparities by education in Denmark and Sweden. The missing educational distribution of population also restricts analyses aiming at estimating contributions of compositional change to the improvements in national longevity. This study proposes a transparent approach to solve the two methodological issues allowing to obtain robust education-specific mortality estimates and population weights. Methods Using nonparametric approach, we redistribute the unknown cases and extrapolate the mortality curves of these sub-populations with the help of population-level data on an aggregate level from the Human Mortality Database. Results We present reconstructed and harmonized education-specific abridged and complete life tables for Sweden and Denmark covering 5-year-long periods from 1991–1995 to 2011–2015. The newly estimated life tables are in good agreement with the national life tables and show plausible age- and education-specific patterns. The observed changes in life expectancy by education suggest about the widening longevity gap between the highest and lowest educated for males and females in both countries. Conclusions The proposed simple and transparent method can be applied in similar country-specific cases showing large proportions of missing education or other socio-economic characteristics at older ages.

Excess mortality has been used to measure the impact of COVID-19 over time and across countries. But what baseline should be chosen? We propose two novel approaches: an alternative retrospective baseline derived from the lowest weekly death rates achieved in previous years and a within-year baseline based on the average of the 13 lowest weekly death rates within the same year. These baselines express normative levels of the lowest feasible target death rates. The excess death rates calculated from these baselines are not distorted by past mortality peaks and do not treat non-pandemic winter mortality excesses as inevitable.We obtained weekly series for 35 industrialized countries from the Human Mortality Database for 2000–2020. Observed, baseline and excess mortalities were measured by age-standardized death rates. We assessed weekly and annual excess death rates driven by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and those related to seasonal respiratory infections in earlier years. There was a distinct geographic pattern with high excess death rates in Eastern Europe followed by parts of the UK, and countries of Southern and Western Europe. Some Asia-Pacific and Scandinavian countries experienced lower excess mortality. In 2020 and earlier years, the alternative retrospective and the within-year excess mortality figures were higher than estimates based on conventional metrics. While the latter were typically negative or close to zero in years without extraordinary epidemics, the alternative estimates were substantial. Cumulation of this ''usual'' excess over 2–3 years results in human losses comparable to those caused by COVID-19.Challenging the view that non-pandemic seasonal winter mortality is inevitable would focus attention on reducing premature mortality in many countries. As SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to be the last respiratory pathogen with the potential to cause a pandemic, such measures would also strengthen global resilience in the face of similar threats in the future.

Although insulitis is the characteristic main feature of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), many aspects of β cell loss still remain elusive. Immune dysregulation and alterations in the dipeptidyl-peptidase-4-incretin system might have a role in disease development, but their connection is poorly understood. We assessed the associations of a few selected, immunologically relevant single nucleotide gene variants with the DPP-4-incretin system in individuals with T1DM and in healthy controls. Prandial plasma (total, active) GLP-1 levels, serum DPP-4 activity, CD25 and CTLA-4 expression of T cells and DPP4 rs6741949, CTLA4 rs3087243, CD25 rs61839660 and PTPN2 rs2476601 SNPs were assessed in 33 T1DM patients and 34 age-, gender-, BMI-matched non-diabetic controls without a family history of T1DM. CTLA-4 expression was lower in the Foxp3+CD25+ regulatory T cells from individuals homozygous for the CTLA4 rs3087243-G variant compared to those who carry an A allele. Prandial plasma total GLP-1 levels 45 min after a standardized meal were reduced in individuals homozygous for the CTLA4 rs3087243 G major allele compared to A allele carriers both in the entire study population (with statistical power over 90%) and within the T1DM group. Here we report for the first time a reduced total prandial GLP-1 plasma concentration in individuals with the CTLA4 rs3087243 G/G genotype. One may speculate that immune response-related L cell damage might possibly explain this novel association.

The COVID-19 pandemic stimulated the interest of scientists, decision makers and the general public in short-term mortality fluctuations caused by epidemics and other natural or man-made disasters. To address this interest and provide a basis for further research, in May 2020, the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series was launched as a new section of the Human Mortality Database. At present, this unique data resource provides weekly mortality death counts and rates by age and sex for 38 countries and regions. The main objective of this paper is to detail the web-based application for visualizing and analyzing the excess mortality based on the Short-term Mortality Fluctuation data series. The application yields a visual representation of the database that enhances the understanding of the underlying data. Besides, it enables the users to explore data on weekly mortality and excess mortality across years and countries. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, to describe a visualization tool that aims to facilitate research on short-term mortality fluctuations. Second, to provide a comprehensive open-source software solution for demographic data to encourage data holders to promote their datasets in a visual framework.

According to recent studies, Norway spruce cones and eastern hemlock cones possess exceptionally high antioxidant capacities; however, the antioxidant efficiency of extractives and their bioactive effects have yet to be investigated in detail. The present article utilizes state-of-the art analytical chemical methodology and chemometric evaluation to reveal cone extractives with the highest antioxidant potential, accounting for possible bioactive effects. Antioxidant properties were determined by the Ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assay and the Folin–Ciocalteu’s total phenol content (TPC) assay. Structure and relative polyphenol concentrations were determined using liquid chromatography/diode array detection/tandem mass spectrometry. The antibacterial testing was conducted using Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli strains. Using correlation analysis and factor analysis, a scoring evaluation was implemented to determine and compare the antioxidant efficiency of extractives. In Norway spruce, piceatannol-O-hexoside and coumaric acid derivatives were found to be the most powerful antioxidants, while in eastern hemlock, kaempferol glycosides were the most powerful. The antibacterial test did not show any promising antimicrobial activity against E. coli, although a visible inhibitory effect on S. aureus strain was observed.

A cube is one of the most fundamental shapes we can draw and can observe from a drawing. The two visualization methods most commonly applied in mathematics textbooks and education are the axonometric and the perspective representations. However, what we see in the drawing is really a cube or only a general cuboid (i.e., a polyhedron with different edge lengths). In this experimental study, 153 first-year ( 19–20-year-old) students, two-thirds of them being female, were asked to interactively adjust a cuboid figure until they believe what they see is really a cube. We were interested in how coherently people, who are actually students of arts studies and engineering with advanced spatial perception skills in most cases, evaluate these drawings. What we have experienced is that for most people there is a common visual understanding of seeing a cube (and not a general cuboid). Moreover, this common sense is surprisingly close to the conventions applied in axonometric drawings, and to the theoretical, geometric solution in the case of three-point perspective drawings, which is the most realistic visualization method.

The Exeter point of a given triangle ABC is the center of perspective of the tangential triangle and the circummedial triangle of the given triangle. The process of the Exeter point from the centroid serves as a base for defining the Exeter transformation with respect to the triangle ABC, which maps all points of the plane. We show that a point, its image, the symmedian, and three exsymmedian points of the triangle are on the same conic. The Exeter transformation of a general line is a fourth-order curve passing through the exsymmedian points. We show that each image point can be the Exeter transformation of four different points. We aim to determine the invariant lines and points and some other properties of the transformation.

Mortality information of populations is aggregated in life tables that serve as a basis for calculation of life expectancy and various life disparity measures. Conventional life-table methods address right-censoring inadequately by assuming a constant hazard in the last open-ended age group. As a result, life expectancy can be substantially distorted, especially in the case when the last age group in a life table contains a large proportion of the population. Previous research suggests addressing censoring in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model setting as this framework incorporates all major features of adult mortality. In this article, we quantify the difference between gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy values and those published in the largest publicly available high-quality life-table databases for human populations, drawing attention to populations for which life expectancy values should be reconsidered. We also advocate the use of gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy for three reasons. First, model-based life-expectancy calculation successfully handles the problem of data quality or availability, resulting in severe censoring due to the unification of a substantial number of deaths in the last open-end age group. Second, model-based life expectancies are preferable in the case of data scarcity, i.e. when data contain numerous age groups with zero death counts: here, we provide an example of hunter-gatherer populations. Third, gamma-Gompertz-Makeham-based life expectancy values are almost identical to the ones provided by the major high-quality human mortality databases that use more complicated procedures. Applying a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model to adult mortality data can be used to revise life-expectancy trends for historical populations that usually serve as input for mortality forecasts.

Genetic variation in human maternal DNA contributes to the susceptibility for development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).We assessed 77 maternal single nucleotide gene polymorphisms (SNPs) for associations with GDM or plasma glucose levels at OGTT in pregnancy.960 pregnant women (after dropouts 820: case/control: m99'WHO: 303/517, IADPSG: 287/533) were enrolled in two countries into this case-control study. After genomic DNA isolation the 820 samples were collected in a GDM biobank and assessed using KASP (LGC Genomics) genotyping assay. Logistic regression risk models were used to calculate ORs according to IADPSG/m'99WHO criteria based on standard OGTT values.The most important risk alleles associated with GDM were rs10830963/G of MTNR1B (OR = 1.84/1.64 [IADPSG/m'99WHO], p = 0.0007/0.006), rs7754840/C (OR = 1.51/NS, p = 0.016) of CDKAL1 and rs1799884/T (OR = 1.4/1.56, p = 0.04/0.006) of GCK. The rs13266634/T (SLC30A8, OR = 0.74/0.71, p = 0.05/0.02) and rs7578326/G (LOC646736/IRS1, OR = 0.62/0.60, p = 0.001/0.006) variants were associated with lower risk to develop GDM. Carrying a minor allele of rs10830963 (MTNR1B); rs7903146 (TCF7L2); rs1799884 (GCK) SNPs were associated with increased plasma glucose levels at routine OGTT.We confirmed the robust association of MTNR1B rs10830963/G variant with GDM binary and glycemic traits in this Caucasian case-control study. As novel associations we report the minor, G allele of the rs7578326 SNP in the LOC646736/IRS1 region as a significant and the rs13266634/T SNP (SLC30A8) as a suggestive protective variant against GDM development. Genetic susceptibility appears to be more preponderant in individuals who meet both the modified 99'WHO and the IADPSG GDM diagnostic criteria.

Interest in inequality, including lifespan inequality, is growing. Several studies, using various measures of variation in the length of life, reveal that as life expectancy increases, lifespan inequality tends to decrease, albeit with considerable variation across populations and over time. The aim of this article is to understand why the strength of the relationship between life expectancy and lifespan inequality varies across publications. Results differ in large part because they are based on different data sources. In addition, some measures show more smudginess than others. All the analyses presented here support the basic finding of a strong relationship between life expectancy and lifespan inequality.

The rs10830963 variant of the Melatonin Receptor 1B (MTNR1B) gene is associated with the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). We hypothesized that carrying the rs10830963/G risk allele had effect on antenatal insulin therapy (AIT) initiation in GDM in a body mass index (BMI)-dependent manner. Design: In this post hoc analysis the MTNR1B rs10830963 genotype and the clinical data of 211 Caucasian GDM patients were assessed. As a first step, a pre-pregnancy BMI threshold was determined where the effect of MTNR1B rs10830963/G allele carrying on AIT initiation was the most significant using logistic regression. Maternal age adjusted real-life odds ratios (OR) values were calculated. The chi-square test was also used to calculate the p value and 10.000 bootstrap simulations were performed in each case to re-assess the statistical power and the OR. Carrying the MTNR1B rs10830963/G allele increased the odds of AIT initiation (OR = 5.2, p = 0.02 [χ2 test], statistical power = 0.53) in GDM patients with pre-pregnancy BMI ≥ 29 kg/m2. The statistical power reached 0.77, when the pre-pregnancy BMI cutoff of 27 kg/m2 was used and the genetic effect on AIT initiation was still significant, but only using the logistic regression model. Carrying the MTNR1B rs10830963/G risk allele—in interaction with pre-pregnancy BMI—is likely be considered as a candidate pharmacogenetic marker of antenatal insulin therapy initiation and should be further assessed in precision medicine trials in GDM.

The internal and external egg morphology, shell development, decollation process, mating behaviour and reproductive anatomy (genital structure, inner structure of the penis, fine structure of the retractor muscle and the spermatophore) of the clausiliid Pontophaedusa funiculum (Mousson 1856) are described, and illustrated by photographs of the laid eggs, their inner structure, juvenile, young adult and old individuals, as well as a schematic drawing of the mating. P. funiculum is the only known clausiliid species with hard shelled eggs and the only known example of the family Clausiliidae which mates face to face. The taxonomic position within the Phaedusinae subfamily is mentioned.