Search

Includes supplementary materials for the online appendix. Analytic compartmental models are currently used in mathematical epidemiology to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and explore the impact of mitigation strategies. In general, such models treat the population as a single entity, losing the social, cultural and economical specificities. We present a network model that uses socio-demographic datasets with the highest available granularity to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona. The model is flexible enough to incorporate the effect of containment policies, such as lockdowns or the use of protective masks, and can be easily adapted to future epidemics. We follow a stochastic approach that combines a compartmental model with detailed individual microdata from the population census, including social determinants and age-dependent strata, and time-dependent mobility information. We show that our model reproduces the dynamical features of the disease across two waves and demonstrates its capability to become a powerful tool for simulating epidemic events. The authors affiliated to CED, IFAE and i2CAT acknowledge the support of the CERCA institution, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya. MB, XJ, LLM, MMar, PM, JP, IR acknowledge support from the grant 2020PANDE0180 of the programme PANDEMIES 2020, “Replegar-se per créixer: l'impacte de les pandèmies en un món sense fronteres visibles” of the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca of the Generalitat de Catalunya. LG thanks the funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement ID 758145. AL acknowledges the support from the Talent Research Program (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona). PM has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2020-112965 GB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033), from the Agency for Management of University and Research Grants of the Government of Catalonia (project SGR 1069), and also received support from Ajuntament de Barcelona. MMan acknowledges support from Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement ID 6655919. VV has been partially supported by the H2020 programme and by the Secretary of Universities and Research of the Government of Catalonia through a Marie Skłodowska-Curie COFUND fellowship – Beatriu de Pinós programme ID 801370. The work of VV has also been carried out in the framework of activities of the Italian National Group of Mathematical Physics (GNFM, INdAM) and of the INFN Research Project QGSKY.

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several commentators, especially from non-academic fields, speculated about a potential exodus from urban to rural areas. However, this hypothesis has not been confirmed due to a lack of data with information capturing changes of residence at local level. This issue of Perspectives Demogràfiques offers the main results of a study led by the Centre for Demographic Studies and the Autonomous University of Barcelona which analyses internal migration between cities, suburbs, and rural areas in 2020, compared to migration patterns during the four years preceding the pandemic. The analysis used microdata from the Residential Variation Statistics (EVR) of the Spanish Statistical Office (INE) which cover all changes of residence in the country’s 8,131 municipalities. The results show significant changes in internal migration patterns during 2020. Inmigration to cities decreased, while out-migration increased, especially to rural areas. The latter flow had an important demographic impact on country villages. Despite these changes, internal migratory movements between and within urban areas dominated, as they did prior to the pandemic. At the same time, monthly data suggest that the changes are likely a temporary outcome.

Aunque el tema de la vivienda se ha discutido ampliamente en Brasil, la mayoría de los estudios cuantitativos se han centrado en el análisis del déficit habitacional, dejando la demanda demográfica de vivienda como un asunto poco tratado. En este sentido, el objetivo del artículo es situarla en primer plano como factor estructurante de las necesidades de vivienda. De la misma forma, se pretende contribuir al debate de las políticas públicas a partir de los resultados obtenidos acerca de la dinámica reciente de formación de hogares en la región metropolitana de São Paulo y de la realización de proyecciones y estimaciones de flujos de creación y disolución de hogares que contemplan tres escenarios de previsión (mínimo, intermedio y máximo). Se puede observar que la satisfacción de la demanda ejercida por el flujo de nuevos hogares jóvenes dependerá cada vez más del stock existente de viviendas, liberado por el flujo de disolución de hogares de mayores. Las políticas de vivienda futuras deben garantizar la sostenibilidad de este proceso.

Projecte troncal del curs 2022/23 del Màster oficial en Estudis Territorials i Planejament, METiP El document s'estructura en quatre capítols més un apèndix. El primer capítol comprèn la Memòria on s'hi pot trobar el Reconeixement Territorial i socioeconòmic i la Diagnosi de les dimensions de la política ciclista. El segon capítol comprèn les Debilitats, Fortaleses, Amenaces i Oportunitats de cada dimensió de la política integral de la bicicleta en l'àmbit d'estudi. El tercer capítol es dedica a l'establiment dels Criteris que hauran de guiar les polítiques de bicicleta. En el quart i darrer capítol es presenten les Propostes i Projectes de cada dimensió; en total es presenten 16 Propostes i 32 Projectes per al territori de la Ròtula de Montcada i Reixac. Finalment a l'apèndix hi trobareu el quadernet de treball de camp amb la planificació detallada de l'exercici troncal i els pòsters amb el recull dels principals resultats de l'exercici.

Although housing policy issues have been widely discussed in Brazil, most quantitative studies have analyzed the housing shortage, whereas demographic demand for housing has hardly been discussed. In this sense, the article’s aim is to place the demographic demand for housing in the foreground as a determinant factor for the estimation of housing construction needs. At the same time, this research addresses the policy debate emerging from recent and future trends in housing formation in the urban region of São Paulo by carrying out our own estimates and projections on quantitative household dynamics. Three forecast scenarios (minimum, intermediate and maximum) are considered. The main policy implication is that fulfilling the young households’ demand will increasingly depend on the reuse of already built housing stock, released by the dissolution outflow of older households. Future housing policies must sustain and support this process., Aunque el tema de la vivienda se ha discutido ampliamente en Brasil, la mayoría de los estudios cuantitativos se han centrado en el análisis del déficit habitacional, dejando la demanda demográfica de vivienda como un asunto poco tratado. En este sentido, el objetivo del artículo es situarla en primer plano como factor estructurante de las necesidades de vivienda. De la misma forma, se pretende contribuir al debate de las políticas públicas a partir de los resultados obtenidos acerca de la dinámica reciente de formación de hogares en la región metropolitana de São Paulo y de la realización de proyecciones y estimaciones de flujos de creación y disolución de hogares que contemplan tres escenarios de previsión (mínimo, intermedio y máximo). Se puede observar que la satisfacción de la demanda ejercida por el flujo de nuevos hogares jóvenes dependerá cada vez más del stock existente de viviendas, liberado por el flujo de disolución de hogares de mayores. Las políticas de vivienda futuras deben garantizar la sostenibilidad de este proceso.

While levels of internal mobility have been trending down in many advanced economies, the interregional migration rates of Spanish young adults have increased. This paper analyses the internal movements of the Spanish-born population aged 25–39 between NUTS-2 regions from 1992 to 2018, including sub-periods linked to the Spanish economic context. The analysis incorporates the urban–rural dimension within each region and the educational level of migrants, a variable that has not been included in Spanish internal migration studies. We used flow register data of migration and sociodemographic information from the Labor Force Survey. The results show that migrations between regions have become more unbalanced over time, especially since the 2008 crisis. In addition, a new trend of out-migration from cities in peripheral regions has been detected, which contrasts with the former high level of rural out-migration. A great educational selectivity of out-migrants and a growing internal brain drain have also been found. Moreover, qualified human capital accumulation has been increasing in Madrid. This work was supported by the Government of Catalonia [grant number 2021 FI_B2 00178 and 2017 SGR 1454]; the Talent Program of the Autonomous University of Barcelona; Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [grant number RTI2018-096730-B-I00].

Altres ajuts: Alan Turing Institute in the United Kingdom (1162533) Existing empirical work has analysed the impacts of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility and international migration. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the patterns of internal migration. Anecdotal reports of mass migration from large cities to less populated areas have emerged, but lack of data has prevented empirically assessing this hypothesis. Drawing on geographically granular administrative population register data, we aim to analyse the extent of change in the patterns of internal migration across the urban hierarchy in Spain during 2020. Our results show a decline of 2.5% in the number of internal migration moves, particularly during the early stages of the pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020. Results also reveal unusually large net migration losses in core cities and net migration gains in rural areas. Net migration losses in cities and gains in rural areas particularly accumulated following the elimination of the strict lockdown measures in June. Yet, these net losses and gains trended to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020, and movements between cities, and between cities and suburbs, continued to dominate the internal migration system. Thus, while the COVID-19 pandemic exerted notable changes in the geographic balance of internal migration flows, these changes appear to have been temporary and did not significantly alter the existing structures of the national migration system.