1. Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model
- Author
-
Anderson, Kym, Valenzuela, Ernesto, and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
- Subjects
CUSTOMS ,EXPORT SUBSIDIES ,REAL INCOME ,TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS ,VALUE ADDED ,EXTREME POVERTY ,WORLD TRADE ,FOOD PRICE ,TRADE POLICY REFORM ,COMMODITIES ,AGRICULTURAL PROTECTION ,AGRICULTURAL LAND ,EXTERNALITIES ,CONSUMER PRICES ,TRADE DISTORTIONS ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,INCOME ,FARM INCOME ,TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ,BANANAS ,FARM INCOMES ,DAIRY PRODUCTS ,TARIFF RATE ,TRADE PREFERENCES ,CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ,PRIMARY PRODUCTS ,TRADE AGREEMENTS ,AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS ,FARMERS ,CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE ,REAL EXCHANGE RATE ,SKILLED WORKERS ,IMPORT TARIFF ,WELFARE GAINS ,SUGAR ,ECONOMIC SECTORS ,GLOBAL OUTPUT ,AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES ,GLOBAL ECONOMY ,FARM PRODUCTION ,DOMESTIC MARKETS ,IMPORT PROTECTION ,EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES ,RAW MILK ,APPAREL ,BORDER MEASURES ,AGRICULTURAL POLICIES ,ELASTICITY ,DEVELOPMENT POLICY ,EXPORT ,FOOD PRODUCTION ,CAPITAL OWNERS ,FARM VALUE ,IMPORT BARRIERS ,MULTILATERAL TRADE ,VEGETABLE OILS ,AGRICULTURAL TARIFF ,TARIFF REVENUES ,PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS ,PUBLIC GOOD ,PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ,CONSUMERS ,AGRICULTURAL PRICE SUPPORTS ,REDUCTION IN TARIFFS ,WTO ,GDP ,AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ,TRADE BALANCE ,BASE YEAR ,POLITICAL ECONOMY ,TAXATION ,GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS ,ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ,EXPORT DEMAND ,INCOME TAX ,EXPORTS ,UNSKILLED LABOR ,GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL ,CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE ,REGIONALISM ,EXCHANGE RATE ,PRODUCTION STRUCTURES ,HOUSEHOLDS ,PREFERENTIAL ACCESS ,EXPORT SUBSIDY ,PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ,FARM PRODUCTS ,AGRICULTURAL GOODS ,BENCHMARK DATA ,FULL LIBERALIZATION ,URUGUAY ROUND ,TARIFF REVENUE ,AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY ,DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ,GLOBAL MARKETS ,INTERVENTION MEASURES ,MARKET FAILURES ,ECONOMIC SIZE ,GLOBALIZATION ,CROPS ,FOREIGN INVESTMENT ,POVERTY ALLEVIATION ,NEW MARKETS ,COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ,TRADE TAXES ,LOSS OF TARIFF REVENUE ,TERMS OF TRADE EFFECT ,BILATERAL TARIFFS ,FACTORS OF PRODUCTION ,FINANCIAL FLOWS ,AGGREGATE IMPORTS ,INTERNATIONAL PRICES ,TRADE LIBERALIZATION ,MARKET ACCESS ,DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ,TAX RATES ,AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS ,TAX ,FARM SECTOR ,RATE QUOTAS ,GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ,DEVELOPING COUNTRY ,AGRICULTURAL PROTECTIONISM ,BEET ,FARM ,TARIFF BARRIERS ,TARIFF LINE ,MILK ,AGRICULTURAL VALUE ,ECONOMIC WELFARE ,TERMS OF TRADE ,AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ,TRADABLE GOODS ,PERFECT COMPETITION ,TRADE PATTERNS ,CUSTOMS REVENUE ,GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ,IMPORT TARIFFS ,EXOGENOUS SHOCKS ,IMPACT OF TRADE ,AGRICULTURAL MARKETS ,COTTON ,GINI COEFFICIENT ,AGRICULTURAL TRADE ,PROTECTION DATA ,TRADE POLICY ,DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ,WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ,COUNTRY MARKETS ,MARGINAL COSTS ,DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ,AGRICULTURAL PRICE ,GLOBAL EXPORTS ,EXPORTERS ,ROUND OF MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ,FARMS ,INTERNATIONAL MARKETS ,WAGES ,APPLIED TARIFF ,NATIONAL INCOME ,UNILATERAL REFORMS ,NATIONAL ECONOMY ,COST OF CAPITAL ,TARIFF STRUCTURE ,EXPORT PRICE ,FATS ,TRADE POLICIES ,VOLUME ,DOMESTIC SALES ,TRADE POLICY REFORMS ,AGRICULTURAL POLICY ,INEQUALITY ,PROTECTIONISM ,AGRICULTURE ,DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ,FREE ACCESS ,FREE TRADE ,AGRICULTURAL INCENTIVES ,DEMAND SHOCKS ,TRADE REFORM ,IMPORT INCREASES ,INTENSIVE FARMING ,INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS ,GLOBAL TRADE ,MEAT ,BENCHMARK ,GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ,FREE MARKETS ,BILATERAL TARIFF ,TRANSITION ECONOMIES ,TRADE FLOWS ,CURRENT ACCOUNT ,TREASURY ,DAIRY ,EXPORT SHARE ,BILATERAL TRADE ,ECONOMIC POLICY ,GRAIN ,IMPORTS ,SUGAR CANE ,UNSKILLED WORKERS ,TARIFF RATE QUOTAS ,PREFERENTIAL TRADE ,WORLD ECONOMY ,MEAT PRODUCTS ,ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS ,FOOD PRODUCTS ,DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ,LIVESTOCK ,PRICE DISTORTIONS ,ITC ,NON-TARIFF BARRIERS ,SAVINGS ,VALUE OF OUTPUT ,ANTI-TRADE ,PRICE DISTORTION ,COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES ,EXPORT TAXES - Abstract
This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and poverty elasticity's approach. It addresses two questions: to what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day will drop 3 percent globally.
- Published
- 2009