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The problem of solid waste management presents an issue of increasing importance in many low-income settings, including the progressively urbanised context of Kenya. Kisumu County is one such setting with an estimated 500 t of waste generated per day and with less than half of it regularly collected. The open burning and natural decay of solid waste is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and atmospheric pollutants with adverse health consequences. In this paper, we use system dynamics modelling to investigate the expected impact on GHG and PM2.5 emissions of (i) a waste-to-biogas initiative and (ii) a regulatory ban on the open burning of waste in landfill. We use life tables to estimate the impact on mortality of the reduction in PM2.5 exposure. Our results indicate that combining these two interventions can generate over 1.1 million tonnes of cumulative savings in GHG emissions by 2035, of which the largest contribution (42%) results from the biogas produced replacing unclean fuels in household cooking. Combining the two interventions is expected to reduce PM2.5 emissions from the waste and residential sectors by over 30% compared to our baseline scenario by 2035, resulting in at least around 1150 cumulative life years saved over 2021–2035. The contribution and novelty of this study lies in the quantification of a potential waste-to-biogas scenario and its environmental and health impact in Kisumu for the first time., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • We present a system dynamics study of solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya. • Scenarios involve a waste-to-biogas initiative and a ban on open burning in landfill. • Combined scenario generates 1.1m tonnes cumulative GHG savings by 2035. • Largest contribution (42%) is from biogas substituting traditional cooking fuels. • Combined scenario may save 1,150 cumulative life years by 2035, plus ~220 more p.a.

Background: The natural history of allergic sensitization in childhood, and its impact on allergic disease development, needs to be clarified. This study aims to identify allergic sensitization and morbidity patterns during the first 8 years of life. Methods: The study was conducted in the on-going population-based prospective Pollution and Asthma Risk: an Infant Study (PARIS) birth cohort. Sensitization profiles were identified by k-means clustering based upon allergen-specific IgE levels measured at 18 months and 8/9 years. Allergic morbidity profiles were identified by latent class analysis based on symptoms, symptom severity, treatments, and lifetime doctor-diagnoses of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis and on lower respiratory infections before 2 years. Results: Five sensitization and 5 allergic morbidity patterns were established in 714 children. Children not sensitized or with isolated and low allergen-specific sensitization were grouped together (76.8%). A profile of early and transient sensitization to foods that increased the risk of asthma later in childhood was identified (4.9%). Children strongly sensitized (≥3.5 kUA/L) to house dust mite at 8/9 years (9.0%) had the highest risk of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Finally, timothy grass pollen at 8/9 years sensitization profile (5.3%) was related to respiratory allergic diseases, as was early onset and persistent sensitization profile (4.1%), this latter being also strongly associated with atopic dermatitis. Conclusions & Clinical Relevance: We show that accurate assessment of the risk of allergic disease should rely on earliness and multiplicity of sensitization, involved allergens, and allergen-specific IgE levels, and not considering solely allergic sensitization as a dichotomous variable (allergen-specific IgE ≥0.35 kUA/L), as usually done. This is particularly striking for house dust mite. We are hopeful that, pending further confirmation in other populations, our findings will improve clinical practice as part of an approach to allergic disease prevention. Keywords: Allergic morbidity, Birth cohort, Cluster analysis, Latent class analysis, Specific IgE levels