Search

The current standard model of cosmology successfully describes a variety of measurements, but the nature of its main ingredients, dark matter and dark energy, remains unknown. Euclid is a medium-class mission in the Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 programme of the European Space Agency (ESA) that will provide high-resolution optical imaging, as well as near-infrared imaging and spectroscopy, over about 14,000 deg^2 of extragalactic sky. In addition to accurate weak lensing and clustering measurements that probe structure formation over half of the age of the Universe, its primary probes for cosmology, these exquisite data will enable a wide range of science. This paper provides a high-level overview of the mission, summarising the survey characteristics, the various data-processing steps, and data products. We also highlight the main science objectives and expected performance., Comment: Accepted for publication in the A&A special issue`Euclid on Sky'

We present a new model to compute the luminosity of emission lines in star forming galaxies and apply this in the semi-analytical galaxy formation code GALFORM. The model combines a pre-computed grid of HII region models with an empirical determination of how the properties of HII regions depend on the macroscopic properties of galaxies based on observations of local galaxies. The new model gives a very good reproduction of the locus of star-forming galaxies on standard line ratio diagnostic diagrams. The new model shows evolution in the locus of star forming galaxies with redshift on this line ratio diagram, with a good match to the observed line ratios at $z=1.6$. The model galaxies at high redshift have gas densities and ionisation parameters that are predicted to be $\approx 2-3$ times higher than in local star forming galaxies, which is partly driven by the changing selection with redshift to mimic the observational selection. Our results suggest that the observed evolution in emission line ratios requires other HII region properties to evolve with redshift, such as the gas density, and cannot be reproduced by HII model grids that only allow the gas metallicity and ionisation parameter to vary., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The presence of neutral hydrogen in the inter-stellar medium (ISM) and inter-galactic medium (IGM) induces radiative transfer (RT) effects on Ly{\alpha} photons which affect the observability of Ly{\alpha} emitters (LAEs). We use the GALFORM semi-analytic model of galaxy formation and evolution to analyse how these effects shape the spatial distribution of LAEs with respect to H{\alpha} emitters (HAEs) around high density regions at high redshift. We find that when a large sample of protoclusters is considered, HAEs showing also Ly{\alpha} emission (HAEs+LAEs) populate the same regions as those that do not display the Ly{\alpha} line at $z=2.2$. We compare against the protocluster USS1558-003, one of the most massive protoclusters located at $z=2.53$. Our results indicate that the strong depletion of HAEs+LAEs present in the high density regions of USS1558-003 may be due to cosmic variance. We find that at $z=2.2$ and $z=3.0$, RT of the ISM produces a strong decline ($30$-$50$ per cent) of the clustering amplitude of HAEs+LAEs with respect to HAEs towards the protoclusters centre. At $z=5.7$, given the early evolutionary state of protoclusters and galaxies, the clustering of HAEs+LAEs has a smaller variation ($10$-$20$ per cent) towards the protoclusters centre. Depending on the equivalent width and luminosity criteria of the emission-line galaxy sample, the IGM can have a mild or a null effect on galaxy properties and clustering in high density regions., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We explore the multiwavelength properties of AGN host galaxies for different classes of radio-selected AGN out to z$\lesssim$6 via a multiwavelength analysis of about 7700 radio sources in the COSMOS field. The sources were selected with the Very Large Array (VLA) at 3 GHz (10 cm) within the VLA-COSMOS 3 GHz Large Project, and cross-matched with multiwavelength ancillary data. This is the largest sample of high-redshift (z$\lesssim$6) radio sources with exquisite photometric coverage and redshift measurements available. We constructed a sample of moderate-to-high radiative luminosity AGN (HLAGN) via spectral energy distribution (SED) decomposition combined with standard X-ray and mid-infrared diagnostics. Within the remainder of the sample we further identified low-to-moderate radiative luminosity AGN (MLAGN) via excess in radio emission relative to the star formation rates in their host galaxies. We show that AGN power in HLAGN occurs predominantly in radiative form, while MLAGN display a substantial mechanical AGN luminosity component. We found significant differences in the host properties of the two AGN classes, as a function of redshift. At z$<$1.5, MLAGN appear to reside in significantly more massive and less star-forming galaxies compared to HLAGN. At z$>$1.5, we observed a reversal in the behaviour of the stellar mass distributions with the HLAGN populating the higher stellar mass tail. We interpret this finding as a possible hint of the downsizing of galaxies hosting HLAGN, with the most massive galaxies triggering AGN activity earlier than less massive galaxies, and then fading to MLAGN at lower redshifts. Our conclusion is that HLAGN and MLAGN samples trace two distinct galaxy and AGN populations in a wide range of redshifts, possibly resembling the radio AGN types often referred to as radiative- and jet-mode (or high- and low-excitation), respectively., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables (2 Appendices). Accepted for publication in A&A. The catalogue described in Section 5 is available at http://jvla-cosmos.phy.hr/dr1/

We present a catalogue of nearly 3,000 submillimetre sources detected at 850um over ~5 square degrees surveyed as part of the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS). This is the largest survey of its kind at 850um, probing a meaningful cosmic volume at the peak of star formation activity and increasing the sample size of submillimetre galaxies selected at 850um by an order of magnitude. We describe the wide 850um survey component of S2CLS, which covers the key extragalactic survey fields: UKIDSS-UDS, COSMOS, Akari-NEP, Extended Groth Strip, Lockman Hole North, SSA22 and GOODS-North. The average 1-sigma depth of S2CLS is 1.2 mJy/beam, approaching the SCUBA-2 850um confusion limit, which we determine to be ~0.8 mJy/beam. We measure the single dish 850um number counts to unprecedented accuracy, reducing the Poisson errors on the differential counts to approximately 4% at S_850~3mJy. With several independent fields, we investigate field-to-field variance, finding that the number counts on 0.5-1 degree scales are generally within 50% of the S2CLS mean for S_850>3mJy, with scatter consistent with the Poisson and estimated cosmic variance uncertainties, although there is a marginal (2-sigma) density enhancement in the GOODS-North field. The observed number counts are in reasonable agreement with recent phenomenological and semi-analytic models. Finally, the large solid angle of S2CLS allows us to measure the bright-end counts: at S_850>10mJy there are approximately ten sources per square degree, and we detect the distinctive up-turn in the number counts indicative of the detection of local sources of 850um emission and strongly lensed high-redshift galaxies. Here we describe the data collection and reduction procedures and present calibrated maps and a catalogue of sources; these are made publicly available., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome. Catalogue and maps at http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.57792

Redshifted 21cm measurements of the structure of ionised regions that grow during reionization promise to provide a new probe of early galaxy and structure formation. One of the challenges of modelling reionization is to account both for the sub-halo scale physics of galaxy formation and the regions of ionization on scales that are many orders of magnitude larger. To bridge this gap we first calculate the statistical relationship between ionizing luminosity and Mpc-scale overdensity using detailed models of galaxy formation computed using relatively small volume - ($\sim$100Mpc/$h$)$^{3}$, high resolution dark matter simulations. We then use a Monte-Carlo technique to apply this relationship to reionization of the intergalactic medium within large volume dark matter simulations - ($>$1Gpc/$h$)$^{3}$. The resulting simulations can be used to address the contribution of very large scale clustering of galaxies to the structure of reionization, and show that volumes larger than 500Mpc/$h$ are required to probe the largest reionization features mid-way through reionization. As an example application of our technique, we demonstrate that the predicted 21cm power spectrum amplitude and gradient could be used to determine the importance of supernovae feedback for early galaxy formation., Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, Accepted by MNRAS

We investigate the clustering of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) at $z\sim4$. Using the hierarchical galaxy formation model GALFORM, we predict, for the first time using a semi-analytical model with feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN), the angular correlation function (ACF) of LBGs and find agreement within $3\,\sigma$ with new measurements of the ACF from surveys including the Hubble eXtreme Deep Field (XDF) and CANDELS field. Our simulations confirm the conclusion reached using independent models that although the predicted ACFs reproduce the trend of increased clustering with luminosity, the dependence is less strong than observed. We find that for the detection limits of the XDF field central LBGs at $z\sim 4$ predominantly reside in haloes of mass $\sim 10^{11}-10^{12}h^{-1}M_{\rm \odot}$ and that satellites reside in larger haloes of mass $\sim 10^{12}-10^{13}h^{-1}M_{\rm \odot}$. The model predicts fewer bright satellite LBGs at $z\sim4$ than is inferred from measurements of the ACF at small scales. By analysing the halo occupation distribution (HOD) predicted by the model, we find evidence that AGN feedback affects the HOD of central LBGs in massive haloes. This is a new high-redshift test of this important feedback mechanism. We investigate the effect of photometric errors in the observations on the ACF predictions. We find that the observational uncertainty in the galaxy luminosity reduces the clustering amplitude and that this effect increases towards faint galaxies, particularly on small scales. To compare properties of model with observed LBGs this uncertainty must be considered., Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey is one of the largest contemporary spectroscopic surveys of low-redshift galaxies. Covering an area of ~286 deg^2 (split among five survey regions) down to a limiting magnitude of r < 19.8 mag, we have collected spectra and reliable redshifts for 238,000 objects using the AAOmega spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. In addition, we have assembled imaging data from a number of independent surveys in order to generate photometry spanning the wavelength range 1 nm - 1 m. Here we report on the recently completed spectroscopic survey and present a series of diagnostics to assess its final state and the quality of the redshift data. We also describe a number of survey aspects and procedures, or updates thereof, including changes to the input catalogue, redshifting and re-redshifting, and the derivation of ultraviolet, optical and near-infrared photometry. Finally, we present the second public release of GAMA data. In this release we provide input catalogue and targeting information, spectra, redshifts, ultraviolet, optical and near-infrared photometry, single-component S\'ersic fits, stellar masses, H$\alpha$-derived star formation rates, environment information, and group properties for all galaxies with r < 19.0 mag in two of our survey regions, and for all galaxies with r < 19.4 mag in a third region (72,225 objects in total). The database serving these data is available at http://www.gama-survey.org/., Comment: Accepted for publication in MMRAS, 40 pages, 33 figures

[abridged] We use the latest release of CIGALE, a galaxy SED fitting model relying on energy balance, to study the influence of an AGN in estimating both the SFR and stellar mass in galaxies, as well as the contribution of the AGN to the power output of the host. Using the galaxy formation SAM GALFORM, we create mock galaxy SEDs using realistic star formation histories (SFH) and add an AGN of Type 1, Type 2, or intermediate type whose contribution to the bolometric luminosity can be variable. We perform an SED fitting of these catalogues with CIGALE assuming three different SFHs: a single- and double-exponentially-decreasing, and a delayed SFH. Constraining thecontribution of an AGN to the LIR (fracAGN) is very challenging for fracAGN<20%, with uncertainties of ~5-30% for higher fractions depending on the AGN type, while FIR and sub-mm are essential. The AGN power has an impact on the estimation of $M_*$ in Type 1 and intermediate type AGNs but has no effect for galaxies hosting Type 2 AGNs. We find that in the absence of AGN emission, the best estimates of $M_*$ are obtained using the double-exponentially-decreasing model but at the expense of realistic ages of the stellar population. The delayed SFH model provides good estimates of $M_*$ and SFR, with a maximum offset of 10% as well as better estimates of the age. Our analysis shows that the underestimation of the SFR increases with fracAGN for Type 1 systems, as well as for low contributions of an intermediate AGN type, but it is quite insensitive to the emission of Type 2 AGNs up to fracAGN~45%. Similarly the UV emission is critical in accurately retrieving the $M_*$ for Type 1 and intermediate type AGN, and the SFR of all of the three AGN types. We show that the presence of AGN emission introduces a scatter to the SFR-$M_*$ main sequence relation derived from SED fitting, which is driven by the uncertainties on $M_*$., Comment: 20 pages, Accepted for publication in A&A

Theoretical galaxy formation models are an established and powerful tool for interpreting the astrophysical significance of observational data, particularly galaxy surveys. Such models have been utilised with great success by optical surveys such as 2dFGRS and SDSS, but their application to radio surveys of cold gas in galaxies has been limited. In this chapter we describe recent developments in the modelling of the cold gas properties in the models, and how these developments are essential if they are to be applied to cold gas surveys of the kind that will be carried out with the SKA. By linking explicitly a galaxy's star formation rate to the abundance of molecular hydrogen in the galaxy rather than cold gas abundance, as was assumed previously, the latest models reproduce naturally many of the global atomic and molecular hydrogen properties of observed galaxies. We review some of the key results of the latest models and highlight areas where further developments are necessary. We discuss also how model predictions can be most accurately compared with observational data, what challenges we expect when creating synthetic galaxy surveys in the SKA era, and how the SKA can be used to test models of dark matter., Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures. Contribution to the conference 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', June 8-13, 2014, Giardini Naxos, Italy

We study the origin of the wide distribution of angles between the angular momenta of the stellar and gas components, $\alpha_{\rm G,S}$, in early-type galaxies (ETGs). We use the GALFORM model of galaxy formation, set in the $\Lambda$ cold dark matter framework, and coupled it with a Monte-Carlo simulation to follow the angular momenta flips driven by matter accretion onto haloes and galaxies. We consider a gas disk to be misaligned with respect to the stellar body if $\alpha_{\rm G,S}>30$~degrees. By assuming that the only sources of misaligments in galaxies are galaxy mergers, we place a lower limit of $2-5$ per cent on the fraction of ETGs with misaligned gas/stellar components. These low fractions are inconsistent with the observed value of $\approx 42\pm 6$ per cent in ATLAS$^{\rm 3D}$. In the more general case, in which smooth gas accretion in addition to galaxy mergers can drive misalignments, our calculation predicts that $\approx 46$ per cent of ETGs have $\alpha_{\rm G,S}>30$~degrees. In this calculation, we find correlations between $\alpha_{\rm G,S}$ and stellar mass, cold gas fraction and star formation rate, such that ETGs with high masses, low cold gas fractions and low star formation rates are more likely to display aligned cold gas and stellar components. We confirm these trends observationally for the first time using ATLAS$^{\rm 3D}$ data. We argue that the high fraction of misaligned gas discs observed in ETGs is mostly due to smooth gas accretion (e.g. cooling from the hot halo of galaxies) which takes place after most of the stellar mass of the galaxy is in place and comes misaligned with respect to the stellar component. Galaxies that have accreted most of their cold gas content prior to the time where most of the stellar mass was in place show aligned components., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS. 18 pages (15 pages main body without appendix); 15 figures

We study the atomic (HI) and molecular hydrogen (H2) contents of early-type galaxies (ETGs) and their gas sources using the GALFORM model of galaxy formation. This model uses a self-consistent calculation of the star formation rate (SFR), which depends on the H2 content of galaxies. We first present a new analysis of HIPASS and ATLAS3D surveys, with special emphasis on ETGs. The model predicts HI and H2 contents of ETGs in agreement with the observations from these surveys only if partial ram pressure stripping of the hot gas is included, showing that observations of neutral gas in `quenched' galaxies place stringent constraints on the treatment of the hot gas in satellites. We find that ~90% of ETGs at z=0 have neutral gas contents supplied by radiative cooling from their hot halos, 8% were supplied by gas accretion from minor mergers that took place in the last 1Gyr, while 2% were supplied by mass loss from old stars. The model predicts neutral gas fractions strongly decreasing with increasing bulge fraction. This is due to the impeded disk regeneration in ETGs, resulting from both active galactic nuclei feedback and environmental quenching by partial ram pressure stripping of the hot gas., Comment: Paper accepted by MNRAS. The only important difference with previous version is Fig. 13 which shows the HI gas fraction as a function of the bulge-to-total stellar mass ratio and for different bulge masses

We study the contribution of galaxies with different properties to the global densities of star formation rate (SFR), atomic (HI) and molecular hydrogen (H2) as a function of redshift. We use the GALFORM model of galaxy formation, which is set in the LCDM framework. This model includes a self-consistent calculation of the SFR, which depends on the H2 content of galaxies. The predicted SFR density and how much of this is contributed by galaxies with different stellar masses and infrared luminosities are in agreement with observations. The model predicts a modest evolution of the HI density at z<3, which is also in agreement with the observations. The HI density is predicted to be always dominated by galaxies with SFR<1Msun/yr. This contrasts with the H2 density, which is predicted to be dominated by galaxies with SFR>10Msun/yr. Current high-redshift galaxy surveys are limited to detect carbon monoxide in galaxies with SFR>30Msun/yr, which in our model make up, at most, 20% of the H2 in the universe. In terms of stellar mass, the predicted H2 density is dominated by massive galaxies, Mstellar>10^10Msun, while the HI density is dominated by low mass galaxies, Mstellar<10^9Msun. In the context of upcoming neutral gas surveys, we suggest that the faint nature of the galaxies dominating the HI content of the Universe will hamper the identification of optical counterparts, while for H2, we expect follow up observations of molecular emission lines of already existing galaxy catalogues to be able to uncover the H2 density of the Universe., Comment: 23 pages (18 of main body and 5 of Appendices), 16 figures. Accepted by MNRAS

We present a new release of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, which exploits a Millennium Simulation-class N-body run performed with the WMAP7 cosmology. We use this new model to study the impact of the choice of stellar population synthesis (SPS) model on the predicted evolution of the galaxy luminosity function. The semi-analytical model is run using seven different SPS models. In each case we obtain the rest-frame luminosity function in the far-ultra-violet, optical and near-infrared (NIR) wavelength ranges. We find that both the predicted rest-frame ultra-violet and optical luminosity function are insensitive to the choice of SPS model. However, we find that the predicted evolution of the rest-frame NIR luminosity function depends strongly on the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) stellar phase in the SPS models, with differences larger than a factor of 2 for model galaxies brighter than $M_{\rm AB}(K)-5$log$h<-22$ ($\sim$L$_*$ for $0\leq z\leq 1.5$). We have also explored the predicted number counts of galaxies, finding remarkable agreement between the results with different choices of SPS model, except when selecting galaxies with very red optical-NIR colours. The predicted number counts of these extremely red galaxies appear to be more affected by the treatment of star formation in disks than by the treatment of TP-AGB stars in the SPS models., Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures, MNRAS. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2014

The correlation between 21cm fluctuations and galaxies is sensitive to the astrophysical properties of the galaxies that drove reionization. Thus, detailed measurements of the cross-power spectrum and its evolution could provide a powerful measurement both of the properties of early galaxies and the process of reionization. In this paper, we study the evolution of the cross-power spectrum between 21cm emission and galaxies using a model which combines the hierarchical galaxy formation model GALFORM implemented within the Millennium-II dark matter simulation, with a semi-numerical scheme to describe the resulting ionization structure. We find that inclusion of different feedback processes changes the cross-power spectrum shape and amplitude. In particular, the feature in the cross-power spectrum corresponding to the size of ionized regions is significantly affected by supernovae feedback. We calculate predicted observational uncertainties of the cross-correlation coefficient based on specifications of the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) combined with galaxy surveys of varying area and depth. We find that the cross-power spectrum could be detected over several square degrees of galaxy survey with galaxy redshift errors less than 0.1.

We present a clustering analysis of X-ray selected AGN by compiling X-ray samples from the literature and re-estimating the dark matter (DM) halo masses of AGN in a uniform manner. We find that moderate luminosity AGN (Lx(2-10 keV)=10^42-10^44 erg/sec) in the z=0-1.3 Universe are typically found in DM haloes with masses of ~10^13 Msun. We then compare our findings to the theoretical predictions of the coupled galaxy and black hole formation model GALFORM. We find good agreement when our calculation includes the hot-halo mode of accretion onto the central black hole. This type of accretion, which is additional to the common cold accretion during disk instabilities and galaxy mergers, is tightly coupled to the AGN feedback in the model. The hot-halo mode becomes prominent in DM haloes with masses greater than ~10^12.5 Msun, where AGN feedback typically operates, giving rise to a distinct class of moderate luminosity AGN that inhabit rich clusters and superclusters. Cold gas fuelling of the black hole cannot produce the observationally inferred DM halo masses of X-ray AGN. Switching off AGN feedback in the model results in a large population of luminous quasars (Lx(2-10 keV) > 10^44 erg/sec) in DM haloes with masses up to ~10^14 Msun, which is inconsistent with the observed clustering of quasars. The abundance of hot-halo AGN decreases significantly in the z~3-4 universe. At such high redshifts, the cold accretion mode is solely responsible for shaping the environment of moderate luminosity AGN. Our analysis supports two accretion modes (cold and hot) for the fuelling of supermassive black holes and strongly underlines the importance of AGN feedback in cosmological models both of galaxy formation and black hole growth., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, submitted to MNRAS (comments are welcome)

Quasars represent the brightest Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the Universe and are thought to indicate the location of prodigiously growing Black Holes (BHs), with luminosities as high as 10^48 erg/sec. It is often expected though that such an extremely energetic process will take place in the most massive bound structures in the dark matter (DM) distribution. We show that in contrast to this expectation, in a galaxy formation model which includes AGN feedback, quasars are predicted to live in average DM halo environments with typical masses of a few times 10^12 Msun. This fundamental prediction arises from the fact that quasar activity (i.e., BH accretion with luminosity greater than 10^46 erg/sec) is inhibited in DM haloes where AGN feedback operates. The galaxy hosts of quasars in our simulations are identified with over massive (in gas and stars) spheroidal galaxies, in which BH accretion is triggered via a galaxy merger or secular processes. We further show that the z=0 descendants of high redshift (z~6) QSOs span a wide range of morphologies, galaxy and halo masses. The z~6 BHs typically grow only by a modest factor by the present day. Remarkably, high redshift QSOs never inhabit the largest DM haloes at that time and their descendants are very seldom found in the most massive haloes at z=0. We also show that observationally it is very likely to find an enhancement in the abundance of galaxies around quasars at z~5. However, these enhancements are considerably weaker compared to the overdensities expected at the extreme peaks of the DM distribution. Thus, it is very unlikely that a quasar detected in the $z\gtrsim5$ Universe pinpoints the location of the progenitors of superclusters in the local Universe., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, submitted to MNRAS (comments are welcome)

The estimated stellar masses of galaxies are widely used to characterize how the galaxy population evolves over cosmic time. If stellar masses can be estimated in a robust manner, free from any bias, global diagnostics such as the stellar mass function can be used to constrain the physics of galaxy formation. We explore how galaxy stellar masses, estimated by fitting broad-band spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with stellar population models, can be biased as a result of commonly adopted assumptions for the star-formation and chemical enrichment histories, recycled fractions and dust attenuation curves of galaxies. We apply the observational technique of broad-band SED fitting to model galaxy SEDs calculated by the theoretical galaxy formation model GALFORM, isolating the effect of each of these assumptions. We find that, averaged over the entire galaxy population, the common assumption of exponentially declining star-formation histories does not adversely affect stellar mass estimation. We show that fixing the metallicity in SED fitting or using sparsely sampled metallicity grids can introduce mass dependent systematics into stellar mass estimates. We find that the common assumption of a star-dust geometry corresponding to a uniform foreground dust screen can cause the stellar masses of dusty model galaxies to be significantly underestimated. Finally, we show that stellar mass functions recovered by applying SED fitting to model galaxies at high redshift can differ significantly in both shape and normalization from the intrinsic mass functions predicted by a given model. Given these differences, our methodology of using stellar masses estimated from model galaxy SEDs offers a new, self-consistent way to compare model predictions with observations., Comment: 29 pages, 16 Figures, changed to match published MNRAS version

The observed power spectrum of redshifted 21cm fluctuations is known to be sensitive to the astrophysical properties of the galaxies that drove reionization. Thus, detailed measurements of the 21cm power spectrum and its evolution could lead to measurements of the properties of early galaxies that are otherwise inaccessible. In this paper, we study the effect of mass and redshift dependent escape fractions of ionizing radiation on the ability of forthcoming experiments to constrain galaxy formation via the redshifted 21cm power spectrum. We use a model for reionization which combines the hierarchical galaxy formation model GALFORM implemented within the Millennium-II dark matter simulation, with a semi-numerical scheme to describe the resulting ionization structure. Using this model we show that the structure and distribution of ionised regions at fixed neutral fraction, and hence the slope and amplitude of the 21 cm power spectrum, is dependent on the variation of ionising photon escape fraction with galaxy mass and redshift. However, we find that the influence of the unknown escape fraction and its evolution is smaller than the dominant astrophysical effect provided by SNe feedback strength in high redshift galaxies. The unknown escape fraction of ionizing radiation from galaxies is therefore unlikely to prevent measurement of the properties of high redshift star formation using observations of the 21cm power spectrum., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to MNRAS. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1203.3598

Using GALFORM, a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation in the Lambda cold dark matter cosmology, we study the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) colours of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the redshift range 2.5 < z < 10. As the impact of dust on UV luminosity can be dramatic, our model includes a self-consistent computation of dust attenuation based on a radiative transfer model. We find that intrinsically brighter galaxies suffer stronger dust attenuation than fainter ones, though the relation has a large scatter. The model predicts galaxies with UV colours consistent with the colour selection regions designed to select LBGs in observational surveys. We find that the drop-out technique that selects LBGs based on two rest-frame UV colours is robust and effective, selecting more than 70 per cent of UV bright galaxies at a given redshift. We investigate the impact on the predicted UV colours of varying selected model parameters. We find that the UV colours are most sensitive to the modelling of dust attenuation and in particular, to the extinction curve used in the radiative transfer calculation. If we assume a Milky Way dust extinction curve, the predicted UV continuum slopes are, in general, bluer than observed. However, we find that the opposite is true when using the Small Magellanic Cloud dust extinction curve. This demonstrates the strong dependence of UV colours on dust properties and highlights the inadequacy of using the UV continuum slope as a tracer of dust attenuation without any further knowledge of the galaxy inclination or dust characteristics in high redshift galaxies., Comment: (20 pages, 14 figures, MNRAS)

We investigate the impact of feedback - from supernovae (SNe), active galactic nuclei (AGN) and a photo-ionizing background at high redshifts - on the neutral atomic hydrogen (HI) mass function, the $b_{\rm J}$ band luminosity function, and the spatial clustering of these galaxies at $z$=0. We use a version of the semi-analytical galaxy formation model GALFORM that calculates self-consistently the amount of HI in a galaxy as a function of cosmic time and links its star formation rate to its mass of molecular hydrogen (H$_2$). We find that a systematic increase or decrease in the strength of SNe feedback leads to a systematic decrease or increase in the amplitudes of the luminosity and HI mass functions, but has little influence on their overall shapes. Varying the strength of AGN feedback influences only the numbers of the brightest or most HI massive galaxies, while the impact of varying the strength of photo-ionization feedback is restricted to changing the numbers of the faintest or least HI massive galaxies.Our results suggest that the HI mass function is a more sensitive probe of the consequences of cosmological reionization for galaxy formation than the luminosity function. We find that increasing the strength of any of the modes of feedback acts to weaken the clustering strength of galaxies, regardless of their HI-richness. In contrast, weaker AGN feedback has little effect on the clustering strength whereas weaker SNe feedback increases the clustering strength of HI-poor galaxies more strongly than HI-rich galaxies. These results indicate that forthcoming HI surveys on next generation radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders will be exploited most fruitfully as part of multiwavelength survey campaigns., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Accepted version by MNRAS

Understanding the epoch of reionization and the properties of the first galaxies represents an important goal for modern cosmology. The structure of reionization, and hence the observed power spectrum of redshifted 21cm fluctuations are known to be sensitive to the astrophysical properties of the galaxies that drove reionization. Thus, detailed measurements of the 21cm power spectrum and its evolution could lead to measurements of the properties of early galaxies that are otherwise inaccessible. In this paper, we make predictions for the ionised structure during reionization and the 21cm power spectrum based on detailed models of galaxy formation. We combine the semi-analytic GALFORM model implemented within the Millennium-II dark matter simulation, with a semi-numerical scheme to describe the resulting ionization structure. Using these models we show that the details of SNe and radiative feedback affect the structure and distribution of ionised regions, and hence the slope and amplitude of the 21 cm power spectrum. These results indicate that forthcoming measurements of the 21cm power-spectrum could be used to uncover details of early galaxy formation. We find that the strength of SNe feedback is the dominant effect governing the evolution of structure during reionization. In particular we show SNe feedback to be more important than radiative feedback, the presence of which we find does not influence either the total stellar mass or overall ionising photon budget. Thus, if SNe feedback is effective at suppressing star formation in high redshift galaxies, we find that photoionization feedback does not lead to self-regulation of the reionization process as has been thought., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, Accepted to MNRAS. Updated version with substantial additions, including implementation of the reionization model within the Millennium-II simulation and self consistent treatment of radiative feedback

Star-forming galaxies which are too faint to be detected individually produce intensity fluctuations in the cosmic background light. This contribution needs to be taken into account as a foreground when using the primordial signal to constrain cosmological parameters. The extragalactic fluctuations are also interesting in their own right as they depend on the star formation history of the Universe and the way in which this connects with the formation of cosmic structure. We present a new framework which allows us to predict the occupation of dark matter haloes by star-forming galaxies and uses this information, in conjunction with an N-body simulation of structure formation, to predict the power spectrum of intensity fluctuations in the infrared background. We compute the emission from galaxies at far-infrared, millimetre and radio wavelengths. Our method gives accurate predictions for the clustering of galaxies both for the one halo and two halo terms. We illustrate our new framework using a previously published model which reproduces the number counts and redshift distribution of galaxies selected by their emission at $850\,\mu$m. Without adjusting any of the model parameters, the predictions show encouraging agreement at high frequencies and on small angular scales with recent estimates of the extragalactic fluctuations in the background made from early data analysed by the Planck Collaboration. There are, however, substantial discrepancies between the model predictions and observations on large angular scales and at low frequencies, which illustrates the usefulness of the intensity fluctuations as a constraint on galaxy formation models., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, Accepted version for MNRAS

We predict the formation histories, properties and descendants of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the Lambda-CDM cosmology. In our model, which incorporates a top-heavy IMF in starbursts, we find that most LBGs are starbursts triggered by minor mergers of galaxies. The duration of the LBG phase is predicted to be quite short, ~20-60 Myr. We investigate the distributions of stellar and halo masses and morphologies for bright (L_UV > L*_UV) and faint (L_UV > 0.1 L*_UV) LBGs at z=3, z=6 and z=10 (where we classify LBGs according to their rest-frame UV luminosities relative the observed characteristic luminosity L*_UV at z \approx 3). Bright LBGs at z=3 are predicted to have median stellar masses ~ 1x10^9 Msun/h and host halo masses ~ 3x10^{11} Msun/h, and to be typically mildly disk-dominated in stellar mass. On the other hand, faint LBGs at z=10 are predicted to have median stellar masses of only ~ 1x10^7 Msun/h and host halo masses 2x10^{10} Msun/h, and to be generally bulge-dominated. Bright LBGs at z=3 evolve to present-day galaxies with median stellar mass ~ 5x^{10} Msun/h (comparable to the Milky Way), consisting of roughly equal numbers of disk- and bulge-dominated systems, and hosted by halos with median mass ~2x10^{13} Msun/h (corresponding to medium-size galaxy groups). The model predicts that 40% of Milky Way mass galaxies at the present-day have a bright LBG progenitor in the redshift range 3

We present predictions for the clustering of Extremely Red Objects (EROs) in a \Lambda cold dark matter Universe, using a semi-analytical galaxy formation model in combination with a cosmological N-body simulation. EROs are red, massive galaxies observed at 0.7< z < 3, and their numbers and properties have posed a challenge to hierarchical galaxy formation models. We analyse the halo occupation distribution and two-point correlation function of EROs, exploring how these quantities change with apparent magnitude, colour cut and redshift. Our model predicts a halo occupation distribution that is significantly different from that typically assumed. This is due to the inclusion of AGN feedback, which changes the slope and scatter of the luminosity-host halo mass relation above the mass where AGN feedback first becomes important. We predict that, on average, dark matter haloes with masses above 10^{13}h^{-1}Msun host at least one ERO at 1.5 < z < 2.5. Taking into account sample variance in observational estimates, the predicted angular clustering for EROs with either (R-K)>5 or (i-K)>4.5 is in reasonable agreement with current observations., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS

We combine the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation, which predicts the star formation and merger histories of galaxies, the GRASIL spectro-photometric code, which calculates the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies self-consistently including reprocessing of radiation by dust, and artificial neural networks (ANN), to investigate the clustering properties of galaxies selected by their emission at submillimetre wavelengths (SMGs). We use the Millennium Simulation to predict the spatial and angular distribution of SMGs. At redshift z = 2, we find that these galaxies are strongly clustered, with a comoving correlation length of r0 = 5.6 \pm 0.9 Mpc/h for galaxies with 850{\mu}m flux densities brighter than 5 mJy, in agreement with observations. We predict that at higher redshifts these galaxies trace denser and increasingly rarer regions of the universe. We present the predicted dependence of the clustering on luminosity, submillimetre colour, halo and total stellar masses. Interestingly, we predict tight relations between correlation length and halo and stellar masses, independent of sub-mm luminosity., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

The spectral energy distribution of galaxies is a complex function of the star formation history and geometrical arrangement of stars and gas in galaxies. The computation of the radiative transfer of stellar radiation through the dust distribution is time-consuming. This aspect becomes unacceptable in particular when dealing with the predictions by semi-analytical galaxy formation models populating cosmological volumes, to be then compared with multi-wavelength surveys. Mainly for this aim, we have implemented an artificial neural network algorithm into the spectro-photometric and radiative transfer code GRASIL in order to compute the spectral energy distribution of galaxies in a short computing time. This allows to avoid the adoption of empirical templates that may have nothing to do with the mock galaxies output by models. The ANN has been implemented to compute the dust emission spectrum (the bottleneck of the computation), and separately for the star-forming molecular clouds and the diffuse dust (due to their different properties and dependencies). We have defined the input neurons effectively determining their emission, which means this implementation has a general applicability and is not linked to a particular galaxy formation model. We have trained the net for the disc and spherical geometries, and tested its performance to reproduce the SED of disc and starburst galaxies, as well as for a semi-analytical model for spheroidal galaxies. We have checked that for this model both the SEDs and the galaxy counts in the Herschel bands obtained with the ANN approximation are almost superimposed to the same quantities obtained with the full GRASIL. We conclude that this method appears robust and advantageous, and will present the application to a more complex SAM in another paper., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, MNRAS, Accepted 2010 August 22

[abridged] We derive photometric redshifts from 17-band optical to mid-IR photometry of 74 robust counterparts to 68 of the 126 submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) selected at 870um by LABOCA observations in the ECDFS. The median photometric redshift of identified SMGs is z=2.2\pm0.1, the interquartile range is z=1.8-2.7 and we identify 10 (~15%) high-redshift (z>3) SMGs. We derive a simple redshift estimator for SMGs based on the 3.6 and 8um fluxes, which is accurate to Delta_z~0.4 for SMGs at z<4. A statistical analysis of sources around unidentified SMGs identifies a population of likely counterparts with a redshift distribution peaking at z=2.5\pm0.3, which likely comprises ~60% of the unidentified SMGs. This confirms that the bulk of the undetected SMGs are coeval with those detected in the radio/mid-IR. We conclude that ~15% of all the SMGs are below the flux limits of our survey and lie at z>3 and hence ~30% of all SMGs have z>3. We estimate that the full S_870um>4mJy SMG population has a median redshift of 2.5\pm0.6. In contrast to previous suggestions we find no significant correlation between S_870um and redshift. The median stellar mass of the SMGs derived from SED fitting is (9.2\pm0.9)x10^10Msun and the interquartile range is (4.7-14)x10^10Msun, although we caution that uncertainty in the star-formation histories results in a factor of ~5 uncertainty in these stellar masses. The median characteristic dust temperature of SMGs is 35.9\pm1.4K and the interquartile range is 28.5-43.3K. The infrared luminosity function shows that SMGs at z=2-3 typically have higher far-IR luminosities and luminosity density than those at z=1-2. This is mirrored in the evolution of the star-formation rate density (SFRD) for SMGs which peaks at z~2. The maximum contribution of bright SMGs to the global SFRD (~5% for SMGs with S_870um>4mJy; ~50% for SMGs with S_870um>1mJy) also occurs at z~2., Comment: Submitted for publication in MNRAS: 31 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables

We study the role of submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) in the galaxy formation process in the Lambda Cold Dark Matter cosmology. We use the Baugh et al. (2005) semi-analytical model, which matches the observed SMG number counts and redshift distribution by assuming a top-heavy initial mass function (IMF) in bursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We build galaxy merger trees and follow the evolution and properties of SMGs and their descendants. Our primary sample of model SMGs consists of galaxies which had 850 mu fluxes brighter than 5 mJy at some redshift z>1. Our model predicts that the present-day descendants of such SMGs cover a wide range of stellar masses ~ 10^{10} - 10^{12} Msun/h, with a median ~ 10^{11} Msun/h, and that more than 70% of these descendants are bulge-dominated. More than 50% of present day galaxies with stellar masses larger than 7 x 10^{11} Msun/h are predicted to be descendants of such SMGs. We find that although SMGs make an important contribution to the total star formation rate at z~2, the final stellar mass produced in the submillimetre phase contributes only 0.2% of the total present-day stellar mass, and 2% of the stellar mass of SMG descendants, in stark contrast to the popular picture in which the SMG phase marks the production of the bulk of the mass of present day massive ellipticals., Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS, following minor revisions, including new Fig.9

We make a detailed investigation of the properties of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the LambdaCDM model. We present predictions for two published variants of the GALFORM semi-analytical model: the Baugh et al. (2005) model, which has star formation at high redshifts dominated by merger-driven starbursts with a top-heavy IMF, and the Bower et al. (2006) model, which has AGN feedback and a standard Solar neighbourhood IMF throughout. We show predictions for the evolution of the rest-frame far-UV luminosity function in the redshift range z=3-20, and compare with the observed luminosity functions of LBGs at z=3-10. We find that the Baugh et al. model is in excellent agreement with these observations, while the Bower et al. model predicts too many high-luminosity LBGs. Dust extinction, which is predicted self-consistently based on galaxy gas contents, metallicities and sizes, is found to have a large effect on LBG luminosities. We compare predictions for the size evolution of LBGs at different luminosities with observational data for 2

Semi-analytic models are a powerful tool for studying the formation of galaxies. However, these models inevitably involve a significant number of poorly constrained parameters that must be adjusted to provide an acceptable match to the observed universe. In this paper, we set out to quantify the degree to which observational data-sets can constrain the model parameters. By revealing degeneracies in the parameter space we can hope to better understand the key physical processes probed by the data. We use novel mathematical techniques to explore the parameter space of the GALFORM semi-analytic model. We base our investigation on the Bower et al. 2006 version of GALFORM, adopting the same methodology of selecting model parameters based on an acceptable match to the local bJ and K luminosity functions. The model contains 16 parameters that are poorly constrained, and we investigate this parameter space using the Model Emulator technique, constructing a Bayesian approximation to the GALFORM model that can be rapidly evaluated at any point in parameter space. By combining successive waves of emulation, we show that only 0.26% of the initial volume is of interest for further exploration. However, within this region we show that the Bower et al. 2006 model is only one choice from an extended sub-space of model parameters that can provide equally acceptable fits. We explore the geometry of this region and begin to explore the physical connections between parameters that are exposed by this analysis. We also consider the impact of adding additional observational data to further constrain the parameter space., Comment: 33 pages, 15 figures. Accepted by MNRAS

The distribution of cold gas in dark matter haloes is driven by key processes in galaxy formation: gas cooling, galaxy mergers, star formation and reheating of gas by supernovae. We compare the predictions of four different galaxy formation models for the spatial distribution of cold gas. We find that satellite galaxies make little contribution to the abundance or clustering strength of cold gas selected samples, and are far less important than they are in optically selected samples. The halo occupation distribution function of present-day central galaxies with cold gas mass > 10^9 h^-1 Msun is peaked around a halo mass of ~ 10^11 h^-1 Msun, a scale that is set by the AGN suppression of gas cooling. The model predictions for the projected correlation function are in good agreement with measurements from the HI Parkes All-Sky Survey. We compare the effective volume of possible surveys with the Square Kilometre Array with those expected for a redshift survey in the near-infrared. Future redshift surveys using neutral hydrogen emission will be competitive with the most ambitious spectroscopic surveys planned in the near-infrared., Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, To appear in MNRAS

Future galaxy redshift surveys aim to measure cosmological quantities from the galaxy power spectrum. A prime example is the detection of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAOs), providing a standard ruler to measure the dark energy equation of state, w(z), to high precision. The strongest practical limitation for these experiments is how quickly accurate redshifts can be measured for sufficient galaxies to map the large-scale structure. A promising strategy is to target emission-line (i.e. star-forming) galaxies at high-redshift (z~0.5-2); not only is the space density of this population increasing out to z~2, but also emission-lines provide an efficient method of redshift determination. Motivated by the prospect of future dark energy surveys targeting H-alpha emitters at near-infrared wavelengths (i.e. z>0.5), we use the latest empirical data to model the evolution of the H-alpha luminosity function out to z~2, and thus provide predictions for the abundance of H-alpha emitters for practical limiting fluxes. We caution that the estimates presented in this work must be tempered by an efficiency factor, epsilon, giving the redshift success rate from these potential targets. For a range of practical efficiencies and limiting fluxes, we provide an estimate of nP_{0.2}, where n is the 3D galaxy number density and P_{0.2} is the galaxy power spectrum evaluated at k=0.2h/Mpc. Ideal surveys must provide nP_{0.2}>1 in order to balance shot-noise and cosmic variance errors. We show that a realistic emission-line survey (epsilon=0.5) could achieve nP_{0.2}=1 out to z~1.5 with a limiting flux of 10^{-16} erg/s/cm^{-2}. If the limiting flux is a factor 5 brighter, then this goal can only be achieved out to z~0.5, highlighting the importance of survey depth and efficiency in cosmological redshift surveys., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Future galaxy surveys will map the galaxy distribution in the redshift interval $0.5 -15.4$; a flux limit of at least $\logfha = -16$ is required for an \ha sample to become competitive in effective volume., Comment: submitted to MNRAS

We use a model for the evolution of galaxies in the far-IR based on the LambdaCDM cosmology to make detailed predictions for upcoming cosmological surveys with the Herschel Space Observatory. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy SEDs including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al. (2005), assumes two different IMFs: a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in disks, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF appears necessary to explain the number counts and redshifts of faint sub-mm galaxies. In this paper, we present predictions for galaxy luminosity functions, number counts and redshift distributions in the Herschel imaging bands. We find that source confusion will be a serious problem in the deepest planned surveys. We also show predictions for physical properties such as star formation rates and stellar, gas and halo masses, together with fluxes at other wavelengths (from the far-UV to the radio) relevant for multi-wavelength follow-up observations. We investigate what fraction of the total IR emission from dust and of the high-mass star formation over the history of the Universe should be resolved by planned surveys with Herschel, and find a fraction ~30-50%, depending on confusion. Finally, we show that galaxies in Herschel surveys should be significantly clustered., Comment: 28 pages, 22 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes in response to referee, including new figure comparing to BLAST number counts

(Abridged) Accurately predicting how the cosmic abundance of neutral hydrogen evolves with redshift is a challenging problem facing modellers of galaxy formation. We investigate the predictions of four currently favoured semi-analytical galaxy formation models applied to the Millennium simulation for the mass function of cold neutral gas (atomic and molecular) in galaxies as a function of redshift, and we use these predictions to construct number counts for the next generation of all-sky neutral atomic hydrogen (HI) surveys. Despite the different implementations of the physical ingredients of galaxy formation, we find that the model predictions are broadly consistent with one another; the key differences reflect how the models treat AGN feedback and how the timescale for star formation evolves with redshift. The models produce mass functions of cold gas in galaxies that are generally in good agreement with HI surveys at $z$=0. Interestingly we find that these mass functions do not evolve significantly with redshift. Adopting a simple conversion factor for cold gas mass to HI mass that we apply to all galaxies at all redshifts, we derive mass functions of HI in galaxies from the predicted mass functions of cold gas, which we use to predict the number counts of sources likely to be detected by HI surveys on next generation radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders. We show also how adopting a conversion factor for cold gas mass to HI mass that varies from galaxy to galaxy impacts on number counts. In addition, we examine how the typical angular sizes of galaxies vary with redshift. Taken together, these results make clear that forthcoming HI surveys will provide important and powerful tests of theoretical galaxy formation models., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. Version contains a number of substantial changes, including a detailed investigation of how the conversion from cold gas mass to HI mass impacts on the number counts of HI sources

We introduce a new technique based on artificial neural networks which allows us to make accurate predictions for the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of large samples of galaxies, at wavelengths ranging from the far-ultra-violet to the sub-millimetre and radio. The neural net is trained to reproduce the SEDs predicted by a hybrid code comprised of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation, which predicts the full star formation and galaxy merger histories, and the GRASIL spectro-photometric code, which carries out a self-consistent calculation of the SED, including absorption and emission of radiation by dust. Using a small number of galaxy properties predicted by GALFORM, the method reproduces the luminosities of galaxies in the majority of cases to within 10% of those computed directly using GRASIL. The method performs best in the sub-mm and reasonably well in the mid-infrared and the far-ultra-violet. The luminosity error introduced by the method has negligible impact on predicted statistical distributions, such as luminosity functions or colour distributions of galaxies. We use the neural net to predict the overlap between galaxies selected in the rest-frame UV and in the observer-frame sub-mm at z=2. We find that around half of the galaxies with a 850um flux above 5 mJy should have optical magnitudes brighter than R_AB < 25 mag. However, only 1% of the galaxies selected in the rest-frame UV down to R_AB < 25 mag should have 850um fluxes brighter than 5 mJy. Our technique will allow the generation of wide-angle mock catalogues of galaxies selected at rest-frame UV or mid- and far-infrared wavelengths., Comment: 24 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

The huge size and uniformity of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey makes possible an exacting test of current models of galaxy formation. We compare the predictions of the GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model for the luminosities, morphologies, colours and scale-lengths of local galaxies. GALFORM models the luminosity and size of the disk and bulge components of a galaxy, and so we can compute quantities which can be compared directly with SDSS observations, such as the Petrosian magnitude and the Sersic index. We test the predictions of two published models set in the cold dark matter cosmology: the Baugh et al. (2005) model, which assumes a top-heavy initial mass function (IMF) in starbursts and superwind feedback, and the Bower et al. (2006) model, which uses AGN feedback and a standard IMF. The Bower et al model better reproduces the overall shape of the luminosity function, the morphology-luminosity relation and the colour bimodality observed in the SDSS data, but gives a poor match to the size-luminosity relation. The \Baugh et al. model successfully predicts the size-luminosity relation for late-type galaxies. Both models fail to reproduce the sizes of bright early-type galaxies. These problems highlight the need to understand better both the role of feedback processes in determining galaxy sizes, in particular the treatment of the angular momentum of gas reheated by supernovae, and the sizes of the stellar spheroids formed by galaxy mergers and disk instabilities., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 23 pages, 24 figures. Small changes following referee's report, including more extended discussion of physical parameters affecting disk size vs luminosity relation (new Sec.4.5.4 and new Fig.20)

We analyse whether hierarchical formation models based on Lambda cold dark matter cosmology can produce enough massive red galaxies to match observations. For this purpose, we compare with observations the predictions from two published models for the abundance and redshift distribution of Extremely Red Objects (EROs), which are red, massive galaxies observed at z >= 1. One of the models invokes a "superwind" to regulate star formation in massive haloes and the other suppresses cooling through "radio-mode" AGN feedback. The first one underestimates the number counts of EROs by an order of magnitude, whereas the radio-mode AGN feedback model gives excellent agreement with the number counts of EROs and redshift distribution of K-selected galaxies. This study highlights the need to consider AGN feedback in order to understand the formation and evolution of massive galaxies at z >= 1., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, "Highlights of Spanish Astrophysics V " Proceedings of the VIII Scientific Meeting of the Spanish Astronomical Society (SEA) held in Santander, July 7-11, 2008

We present predictions for the abundance and nature of Extremely Red Objects (EROs) in the Lambda cold dark matter model. EROs are red, massive galaxies observed at z>= 1 and their numbers and properties pose a challenge to hierarchical galaxy formation models. We compare the predictions from two published models, one of which invokes a "superwind" to regulate star formation in massive haloes and the other which suppresses gas cooling in haloes through "radio-mode" AGN feedback. The superwind model underestimates the number counts of EROs by an order of magnitude, whereas the radio-mode AGN feedback model gives excellent agreement with the number counts and redshift distribution of EROs. In the AGN feedback model the ERO population is dominated by old, passively evolving galaxies, whereas observations favour an equal split between old galaxies and dusty starbursts. Also, the model predicts a more extended redshift distribution of passive galaxies than is observed. These comparisons suggest that star formation may be quenched too efficiently in this model., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures

We use the Millennium Simulation, a large, high resolution N-body simulation of the evolution of structure in a LambdaCDM cosmology, to study the properties and fate of substructures within a large sample of dark matter haloes. We find that the subhalo mass function departs significantly from a power law at the high mass end. We also find that the radial and angular distributions of substructures depend on subhalo mass. In particular, high mass subhaloes tend to be less radially concentrated and to have angular distributions closer to the direction perpendicular to the spin of the host halo than their less massive counterparts. We find that mergers between subhaloes occur. These tend to be between substructures that were already dynamically associated before accretion into the main halo. For subhaloes larger than 0.001 times the mass of the host halo, it is more likely that the subhalo will merge with the central or main subhalo than with another subhalo larger than itself. For lower masses, subhalo-subhalo mergers become equally likely to mergers with the main subhalo. Our results have implications for the variation of galaxy properties with environment and for the treatment of mergers in galaxy formation models., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

We combine a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation with a very large simulation which follows the growth of large scale structure in a LambdaCDM universe to predict the clustering of Ly-alpha emitters. We find that the clustering strength of Ly-alpha emitters has only a weak dependence on Ly-alpha luminosity but a strong dependence on redshift. With increasing redshift, Ly-alpha emitters trace progressively rarer, higher density regions of the universe. Due to the large volume of the simulation, over 100 times bigger than any previously used for this application, we can construct mock catalogues of Ly-alpha emitters and study the sample variance of current and forthcoming surveys. We find that the number and clustering of Ly-alpha emitters in our mock catalogues are in agreement with measurements from current surveys, but that there is a considerable scatter in these quantities. We argue that a proposed survey of emitters at z=8.8 should be extended significantly in solid angle to allow a robust measurement of Ly-alpha emitter clustering., Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor revisions following referee's report. Replaced with version including Addendum to published paper discussing integral constraint correction. For high resolution figures see http://astro.dur.ac.uk/~aaorsi/publications/clustering_laes

We use an extremely large volume ($2.4h^{-3}{\rm Gpc}^{3}$), high resolution N-body simulation to measure the higher order clustering of dark matter haloes as a function of mass and internal structure. As a result of the large simulation volume and the use of a novel ``cross-moment'' counts-in-cells technique which suppresses discreteness noise, we are able to measure the clustering of haloes corresponding to rarer peaks than was possible in previous studies; the rarest haloes for which we measure the variance are 100 times more clustered than the dark matter. We are able to extract, for the first time, halo bias parameters from linear up to fourth order. For all orders measured, we find that the bias parameters are a strong function of mass for haloes more massive than the characteristic mass $M_{*}$. Currently, no theoretical model is able to reproduce this mass dependence closely. We find that the bias parameters also depend on the internal structure of the halo up to fourth order. For haloes more massive than $M_{*}$, we find that the more concentrated haloes are more weakly clustered than the less concentrated ones. We see no dependence of clustering on concentration for haloes with masses $M

Luminous red galaxies (LRGs) are much rarer and more massive than L* galaxies. Coupled with their extreme colours, LRGs therefore provide a demanding testing ground for the physics of massive galaxy formation. We present the first self-consistent predictions for the abundance and properties of LRGs in hierarchical structure formation models. We test two published models which use quite different mechanisms to suppress the formation of massive galaxies: the Bower et al. (2006) model, which invokes ``AGN-feedback'' to prevent gas from cooling in massive haloes, and the Baugh et al. (2005) model which relies upon a ``superwind'' to eject gas before it is turned into stars. Without adjusting any parameters, the Bower et al. model gives an excellent match to the observed luminosity function of LRGs in the SDSS (with a median redshift of z=0.24) and to their clustering; the Baugh et al. model is less successful in these respects. Both models fail to match the observed abundance of LRGs at z=0.5 to better than a factor of ~2. In the models, LRGs are typically bulge dominated systems with M* of ~2x10^11 h^{-1} M_sun and velocity dispersions of ~250 km s^{-1}. Around half of the stellar mass in the model LRGs is already formed by z~2.2 and is assembled into one main progenitor by z~1.5; on average, only 25% of the mass of the main progenitor is added after z~1. LRGs are predicted to be found in a wide range of halo masses, a conclusion which relies on properly taking into account the scatter in the formation histories of haloes. Remarkably, we find that the correlation function of LRGs is predicted to be a power law down to small pair separations, in excellent agreement with observational estimates. Neither the Bower et al. nor the Baugh et al. model is able to reproduce the observed radii of LRGs., Comment: 19 pages; MNRAS in press

We present predictions for the evolution of the galaxy luminosity function, number counts and redshift distributions in the IR based on the Lambda-CDM cosmological model. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy SEDs including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al (2005), assumes two different IMFs: a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in disks, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF seems to be necessary to explain the number counts of faint sub-mm galaxies. We compare the model with observational data from the SPITZER Space Telescope, with the model parameters fixed at values chosen before SPITZER data became available. We find that the model matches the observed evolution in the IR remarkably well over the whole range of wavelengths probed by SPITZER. In particular, the SPITZER data show that there is strong evolution in the mid-IR galaxy luminosity function over the redshift range z ~ 0-2, and this is reproduced by our model without requiring any adjustment of parameters. On the other hand, a model with a normal IMF in starbursts predicts far too little evolution in the mid-IR luminosity function, and is therefore excluded., Comment: LaTeX, 26 pages, 19 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes from original version in response to referee's report

We assess the detectability of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) in the power spectrum of galaxies using ultra large volume N-body simulations of the hierarchical clustering of dark matter and semi-analytical modelling of galaxy formation. A step-by-step illustration is given of the various effects (nonlinear fluctuation growth, peculiar motions, nonlinear and scale dependent bias) which systematically change the form of the galaxy power spectrum on large scales from the simple prediction of linear perturbation theory. Using a new method to extract the scale of the oscillations, we nevertheless find that the BAO approach gives an unbiased estimate of the sound horizon scale. Sampling variance remains the dominant source of error despite the huge volume of our simulation box ($=2.41 h^{-3}{\rm Gpc}^{3}$). We use our results to forecast the accuracy with which forthcoming surveys will be able to measure the sound horizon scale, $s$, and, hence constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter, $w$ (with simplifying assumptions and without marginalizing over the other cosmological parameters). Pan-STARRS could potentially yield a measurement with an accuracy of $\Delta s/s = 0.5-0.7 % $ (corresponding to $\Delta w \approx 2-3% $), which is competitive with the proposed WFMOS survey ($\Delta s/s = 1% $ $\Delta w \approx 4 % $). Achieving $\Delta w \le 1% $ using BAO alone is beyond any currently commissioned project and will require an all-sky spectroscopic survey, such as would be undertaken by the SPACE mission concept under proposal to ESA., Comment: MNRAS in press, revised after referee's report

We present predictions for the structural and photometric properties of early-type galaxies in the cold dark matter cosmology from the published semi-analytical galaxy formation models of Baugh et al. and Bower et al. These calculations were made with the GALFORM code, which tracks the evolution of the disc and bulge components of a galaxy, using a self-consistent model to compute the scalelengths. The sizes of galactic discs are determined by the conservation of the angular momentum of cooling gas. The sizes of merger remnants are computed by applying the virial theorem and conserving the binding energy of the progenitors and their orbital energy. We compare the model predictions with observational results derived from the SDSS. The model enjoys a number of notable successes, such as giving reasonable reproductions of the local Faber-Jackson relation, the velocity dispersion-age relation, and the fundamental plane relating the luminosity, velocity dispersion and effective radius of spheroids. These achievements are all the more remarkable when one bears in mind that none of the parameters have been adjusted to refine the model predictions. We study how the residuals around the fundamental plane relation depend on galaxy properties. We examine in detail the physical ingredients of the calculation of galaxy sizes. We also study the evolution of the scaling relations with redshift. However, there are some important disagreements between the predictions of the model and observations: the brightest model spheroids have effective radii smaller than observed and the zero-point of the fundamental plane shows little or no evolution with redshift in the model., Comment: 19 pages; Accepted by MNRAS; revised version following referee's report

We incorporate a model for black hole growth during galaxy mergers into the semi-analytical galaxy formation model based on Lambda-CDM proposed by Baugh et al. (2005). Our black hole model has one free parameter, which we set by matching the observed zeropoint of the local correlation between black hole mass and bulge luminosity. We present predictions for the evolution with redshift of the relationships between black hole mass and bulge properties. Our simulations reproduce the evolution of the optical luminosity function of quasars. We study the demographics of the black hole population and address the issue of how black holes acquire their mass. We find that the direct accretion of cold gas during starbursts is an important growth mechanism for lower mass black holes and at high redshift. On the other hand, the re-assembly of pre-existing black hole mass into larger units via merging dominates the growth of more massive black holes at low redshift. This prediction could be tested by future gravitational wave experiments. As redshift decreases, progressively less massive black holes have the highest fractional growth rates, in line with recent claims of "downsizing" in quasar activity., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures. Replaced with MNRAS accepted version

We construct rest-frame luminosity functions at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, 8 and 24 microns over the redshift range 0

We present a hierarchical galaxy formation model which can account for the number counts of sources detected through their emission at sub-millimetre wavelengths. The first stage in our approach is an ab initio calculation of the star formation histories for a representative sample of galaxies, which is carried out using the semi-analytical galaxy formation model GALFORM. These star formation histories are then input into the spectro-photometric code GRASIL, to produce a spectral energy distribution for each galaxy. Dust extinction and emission are treated self consistently in our model, without having to resort to ad-hoc assumptions about the amount of attenuation by dust or the temperature at which the dust radiates. We argue that it is necessary to modify the form of the stellar initial mass function in starbursts in order to match the observed number of sub-mm sources, if we are to retain the previous good matches enjoyed between observations and model predictions in the local universe. We also list some other observational tests that have been passed by our model., Comment: 10 pages. To appear in ``From Z-Machines to ALMA: (Sub)millimeter Spectroscopy of Galaxies'', ASP Conference Series, eds. A. J. Baker, J. Glenn, A. I. Harris, J. G. Mangum, M. S. Yun