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Ultrasonographic parameters such as the common carotid artery (CCA) pulsatility index (PI) and CCA intima-media thickness (IMT) have been associated with an increased mortality and risk of recurrent stroke, respectively. We hypothesized that these ultrasonographic parameters may be useful for monitoring diabetic patients after an acute stroke. We analysed retrospective data of consecutive acute ischaemic stroke patients from the ASTRAL registry who underwent pre-cerebral ultrasonographic evaluation within 7 days of symptom onset. We compared clinical, demographic, radiological and ultrasonographic parameters in diabetic versus non-diabetic patients (univariable and multivariable analyses) and the association of these parameters with CCA PI and CCA IMT. We analysed 1507 carotid duplex ultrasound examinations from patients with a median age of 74 years. Cardiovascular co-morbidities, including hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome, higher body-mass index (BMI) and peripheral artery disease, were associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). Diabetics were more often under antiplatelet therapy and had atrial fibrillation at admission. Diabetic patients showed an increased CCA PI and IMT in line with more atherosclerotic changes on acute CTA compared to non-diabetic patients. Taking IMT as the dependent variable in a second analysis, DM, higher age, hypertension, smoking and CCA PI were associated with higher IMT. Taking CCA PI as the dependent variable in a third analysis, DM, higher age and higher NIHSS at admission were associated with higher CCA PI values. Increased IMT was also associated with higher PI. We show that CCA PI and IMT are higher in diabetic patients in the first week after an initial stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An acute ischemic stroke carries a substantial risk of further recurrences. We aimed at developing and validating a prognostic tool to predict one-year stroke recurrence after acute ischemic stroke. Methods: An integer score was derived by Cox regression analysis on a hospital-referred cohort of 3246 acute ischemic stroke patients from Switzerland, and tested for external validity in three similar independent cohorts from Athens (n = 2495), Milan (n = 1279), and Helsinki (n = 714) by means of calibration and discrimination. Results: In the derivation cohort, the recurrence rate was 7% (n = 228/3246). We developed a nine-point score comprising: previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (1-point), stroke mechanism (small vessel disease and unknown mechanism: 0-points; rare stroke mechanism: 3-points; other mechanisms: 1-point), pre-stroke antiplatelets (1-point), active malignancy (2-points), chronic cerebrovascular lesions on imaging (1-point) and absence of early ischemic changes on first imaging (1-point). In the derivation cohort, the one-year risk of re-stroke was 3.0% (95%CI 1.9–4.1) in 932 (29%) patients with a score 0–1, 7.2% (6.1–8.3) in 2038 (63%) with a score 2–4, and 19.2% (14.6–23.9) in 276 (8%) with a score ≥ 5. The score calibrated well in the Athens (recurrences = 208/2495), but not in the Helsinki (recurrences = 15/714) or Milan (recurrences = 65/1279) cohorts. The AUC was 0.67 in the derivation cohort, and 0.56, 0.70, and 0.63 in the Athens, Helsinki, and Milan cohorts, respectively. Conclusion: We developed a score to predict one-year stroke recurrence risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Since the score was not completely validated when applied to external datasets where it displayed poor to fair calibration and discrimination, additional efforts are required to ameliorate our accuracy for predicting stroke recurrence, by better refining this prognostic tool or developing new ones. Clinical and radiological markers of established cerebrovascular disease and stroke etiology were better predictors than the usual demographic vascular risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Methods: We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system. Results: Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; −1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; −3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; −2 points for subcortical infarct; −3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively. Conclusions: The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring. Clinical trial registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique identifier: NCT02766205. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]