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This paper accounts for spatial effects by benchmarking farms against their k-nearest neighbours (KNN) and measuring their inefficiency in a non-parametric dynamic by-production setting. The optimal number of neighbours k against which farms are compared corresponds to the value of; that maximises the Moran I test for spatial autocorrelation of the good and the bad output of the farms' two sub-technologies. The inefficiency scores for farms' good output, variable inputs, investments and bad outputs are then computed and compared with those calculated based on a global technology, which benchmarks all farms together. The application focuses on an unbalanced panel of specialised Dutch dairy farms over the period 2009-2016 that contains information on their exact geographical locations. The results suggest that the inefficiency scores exhibit statistically significant differences between the KNN and the global model. Specifically, the inefficiencies are generally deflated when a KNN technology is considered, suggesting that ignoring spatial effects can overestimate inefficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops the decomposition of the dynamic Luenberger productivity growth indicator into dynamic technical change, dynamic technical inefficiency change and dynamic scale inefficiency change in the dynamic directional distance function context using Data Envelopment Analysis. These results are used to investigate for the Spanish food processing industry the extent to which dynamic productivity growth and its components are affected by the introduction of the General Food Law in 2002 (Regulation (EC) No 178/2002). The empirical application uses panel data of Spanish meat, dairy, and oils and fats industries over the period 1996-2011. The results suggest that in the oils and fats industry the impact of food regulation on dynamic productivity growth is negative initially and then positive over the long run. In contrast, the opposite pattern is observed for the meat and dairy processing industries. The results further imply that firms in the meat processing and oils and fats industries face similar impacts of food safety regulation on dynamic technical change, dynamic inefficiency change and dynamic scale inefficiency change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis ( DEA) model to measure the composition of productivity growth of pesticides and the environmental impacts of pesticides. The application focuses on panel data of Dutch arable farms over the period 2003-07. A bootstrap regression model is used to explain farmers' performance, providing empirical evidence of the impact of producer-specific characteristics and environmental factors. The results show that Dutch arable farms have substantial inefficiency in the use of pesticides and high pesticide environmental inefficiency, and appear rather unconcerned about the environmental impacts of their current pesticide use decisions on next period's production environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: World-wide, government institutions play an important role in the management of plant health. This paper develops a conceptual framework in which suppliers and demanders jointly determine the optimal level of plant health in a hypothetical market. Next this paper argues that this market falls short of reaching an optimal plant health situation due to the public good nature of plant health and due to the presence of asymmetric information. A range of commonly applied and novel solutions to this market failure are then discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyses the impacts of CAP reforms, particularly subsidies on technical efficiency of crop farms. An output distance function is employed and estimated together with an inefficiency effects model to capture the effects of CAP subsidies and farmer characteristics on farm efficiency. The model is applied to FADN data (period 1995–2004) of crop farms in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. The study shows that the 10-year average technical efficiency is 64% in Germany, 76% in the Netherlands and 71% in Sweden. The average annual changes in technical efficiency are 0.1%, 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The share of crop subsidies in total subsidies has a negative impact on technical efficiency in Germany but a positive impact in Sweden, although insignificant in the Netherlands. The share of total subsidies in total farm revenues has negative impacts on technical efficiency in all three countries, consistent with income and insurance effects. Positive (negative) change in technical efficiency is mainly attributable to farm size (degree of specialisation) in Germany, and degree of specialisation (degree of subsidy dependence) in the Netherlands and Sweden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two-stage approach is employed to analyze the efficiency of cooperatives responsible for ruminants' disease control (Organizacoes de Produtores Pecuarios - OPPs) at the farm level in Northwest Portugal. In the first stage, Data Envelopment Analysis is used to estimate and decompose input-based overall inefficiency for each OPP. The input-based inefficiency measures are generated using the directional input distance function. In the second stage, the inefficiency estimates are regressed on environmental and organizational factors in order to explain efficiency differentials. Despite substantial environmental differences, the empirical results indicate that most cooperatives can reduce costs by improving scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dutch glasshouse firms are facing the introduction of a system of tradable CO2 emission quotas. This paper employs a non-parametric method for modelling tradable CO2 emissions of Dutch glasshouse firms. The method is capable of generating shifts in CO2 emissions across the sample of firms. Moreover, changes in volumes of outputs produced and inputs used are computed. Results show that firms using a conventional heating technology will be net purchasers of CO2 emissions, whereas firms using more advanced heating technologies will sell part of their emission quota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a sequence of energy-saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms. The model allows for time-constant, firm-specific effects and serial correlation of errors and it is estimated on panel data over the period 1991–1995. The unobserved error sequences are simulated in the model in such a way that they are consistent with the observed choices. The results suggest that positive revenue shocks encourage adoption of new technologies. The choices also exhibit firm-specific persistency over time. An increase of the price of energy encourages the adoption of a highly efficient energy-saving technology. The probability of investing in energy-saving technologies also decreases with capital invested in structures (e.g. double glazing of glasshouses) and increases with capital in energy installations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a semi-parametric approach to estimating a generalised model of investments in heating installations. The results suggest that marginal costs of investments in heating installations increase quickly at small investment levels, whereas the increase slows down at higher investment levels. Therefore, standard parametric adjustment cost models are probably biased such that they underestimate the costs of small investments and overestimate the costs of large investments. Results also show that investments in heating installations are very responsive to changes in energy prices. Therefore, an energy lax may be an effective instrument to encourage investments in new energy-saving healing installations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to investigate the possibilities for improving the technical, economic and environmental performance of Dutch pig farms relative to currently applied technologies and relative to currently available but not yet applied technologies. First, the efficiency is computed relating observed pig farms to the current best practice frontier. This frontier is computed from a sample of observed pig farms, using DEA based on linear programming. Second, potential technological change is computed as the change of the frontier due to addition of virtual farms (based on technologies that are available but not applied in practice yet) to the dataset. It is found that the mean technical efficiency of farms is rather high relative to the currently available technologies. Overall technical performance increases slightly when new technologies are introduced. Environmental performance increases importantly when applying new technologies. In particular, the ammonia emissions can be reduced largely by utilising the up-to-date housing techniques. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper develops a test for disposability of individual inputs based on non-radial efficiency measures. Furthermore, the paper analyses the impact of congestion on overall technical efficiency for individual inputs. The application uses panel data from Dutch cash crop farms over the period 1989-1992. A significant difference between the efficiency measures under different assumptions on input disposability is detected by a t-test, indicating that all inputs are weakly disposable. Analysis of the composition of overall technical efficiency reveals that weak disposability constitutes the largest component of inefficiency. Moreover, congested farms on average have a less effective management and operate on a larger, though less efficient, production scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relation between unobserved farm productivity and other production factors in a system of netput equations for specialised pig breeding farms in the Netherlands. In order to estimate the system, a Hausman-Taylor panel data estimator is developed for a system of equations with unbalanced panel data. Tests on the correlation between model variables and farm-effects are performed, yielding an insight into the sources of differences in total factor productivity and its components (e.g. managerial ability and scale economies). Results indicate that specialised pig breeding farms that are characterised by high total factor productivity have more buildings and machinery than farms with low total factor productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Food Safety Authority's has established procedures for the identification of emerging risk in food and feed. The main objectives are to: (i) to carry out activities aiming at identifying, assessing and disseminating information on emerging issues and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations; (ii) promote the identification of data sources and data collection and /or data generation in prioritised emerging issues; and the (iii) evaluate of the collected information and identify of emerging risks. The objective(s) of the Standing Working Group on Emerging Risks (SWG-ER) is to collaborate with EFSA on the emerging risks identification (ERI) procedure and provide strategic direction for EFSA work building on past and ongoing projects related to EFSA ERI procedure. The SWG-ER considered the ERI methodologies in place and results obtained by EFSA. It was concluded that a systematic approach to the identification of emerging issues based on experts' networks is the major strength of the procedure but at present, it is mainly focused on single issues, over short to medium time horizons, no consistent weighting or ranking is applied and clear governance of emerging risks with follow-up actions is missing. The analysis highlighted weaknesses with respect to data collection, analysis and integration. No methodology is in place to estimate the value of the procedure outputs in terms of avoided risk and there is urgent need for a communication strategy that addresses the lack of data and knowledge uncertainty and addresses risk perception issues. Recommendations were given in three areas: (i) Further develop a food system-based approach including the integration of social sciences to improve understanding of interactions and dynamics between actors and drivers and the development of horizon scanning protocols; (ii) Improve data processing pipelines to prepare big data analytics, implement a data validation system and develop data sharing agreements to explore mutual benefits; and (iii) Revise the EFSA procedure for emerging risk identification to increase transparency and improve communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pesticides are used in agriculture to protect crops from pests and diseases, with indiscriminate pesticide use having several adverse effects on the environment and human health. An important question is whether the environmental spillovers of pesticides also affect the farmers' production environment. We use a model of optimal pesticide use that explicitly incorporates the symmetric and asymmetric effect of pesticides' environmental spillovers on crop production. The application focuses on panel data from Dutch cash crop producers. We show that pesticides have a positive direct impact on output and a negative indirect impact through their effects on the production environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of nonlinear fixed-effects models is plagued by the incidental parameters problem. This paper proposes a procedure for choosing appropriate densities for integrating the incidental parameters from the likelihood function in a general context. The densities are based on priors that are updated using information from the data and are robust to possible correlation of the group-specific constant terms with the explanatory variables. Monte Carlo experiments are performed in the specific context of stochastic frontier models to examine and compare the sampling properties of the proposed estimator with those of the random-effects and correlated random-effects estimators. The results suggest that the estimator is unbiased even in short panels. An application to a cross-country panel of EU manufacturing industries is presented as well. The proposed estimator produces a distribution of efficiency scores suggesting that these industries are highly efficient, while the other estimators suggest much poorer performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the production technology and production risk of organic and conventional arable farms in the Netherlands. Just–Pope production functions that explicitly account for output variability are estimated using panel data of Dutch organic and conventional farms. Prior investigation of the data indicates that within variation of output is significantly higher for organic farms, indicating that organic farms face more output variation than conventional farms. The estimation results indicate that in both types of farms, unobserved farm-specific factors like management skills and soil quality are important in explaining output variability and production risk. The results further indicate that land has the highest elasticity of production for both farm types. Labour and other variable inputs have significant production elasticities in the case of conventional farms and other variable inputs in the case of organic farms. Manure and fertilisers are risk-increasing inputs on organic farms and risk-reducing inputs on conventional farms. Other variable inputs and labour are risk increasing on both farm types; capital and land are risk-reducing inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyses the investment behaviour of Russian farms during the period of economic stabilisation that followed Russia’s financial crisis of 1998, and is the first to apply the error-correction investment model to describe farms’ investment behaviour in the transitional context. Additionally, the paper employs the error-correction and the adjustment-cost model to test for differences in the investment behaviour between various farm categories. The results show that in general Russian farms exhibited an error-correcting behaviour in the period under investigation. From 1999 to 2005 the output–capital gap was closed by an average rate of 10% per year. Estimates of the adjustment-cost model show that Russian farm investments are very sensitive to the sales–capital ratio, suggesting that Russian farms exhibit increasing returns to scale and positive expectations about future revenues. Yet, such farm characteristics as ownership structure, access to input markets and also regional specifics were found to be decisive for farm investment not only in the short but long term too. Finally, the results show that the adjustment-cost model is adequate for the evaluation of differences in short-term investment behaviour, whereas it is noticeably less powerful for investigating differences in the farms’ long-term investment behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of investment cycles demonstrates the long-run policy of firms investing in particular periods (investment spikes) with lower or zero investment levels in between, which contradicts the smooth pattern predicted by a convex adjustment model. This paper investigates the spells between investment spikes in a discrete-time proportional hazard framework to estimate the probability of observing lumpy investment and factors underlying lumpy and intermittent patterns of investment. Duration models were estimated on two datasets: on an unbalanced panel and on average data of 10 ‘firm size’ groups of Dutch greenhouse firms over the period 1975–1999. Two specifications of the model were estimated: one includes only theoretically grounded variables, and the other specification is extended by empirically grounded variables. Theoretically based models can explain the occurrence of investment spikes. Both specifications of model show an investment cycle of six years. This is also confirmed for the average firm, which exhibits a higher hazard ratio in the 6th, 12–13th and 21st years of duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to improve understanding of the adaptive capacity of European agriculture to climate change. Extensive data on farm characteristics of individual farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) have been combined with climatic and socio-economic data to analyze the influence of climate and management on crop yields and income and to identify factors that determine adaptive capacity. A multilevel analysis was performed to account for regional differences in the studied relationships. Our results suggest that socio-economic conditions and farmcharacteristics should be considered when analyzing effects of climate conditions on farm yields and income. Next to climate, input intensity, economic size and the type of land use were identified as important factors influencing spatial variability in crop yields and income. Generally, crop yields and income are increasing with farm size and farm intensity. However, effects differed among crops and high crop yields were not always related to high incomes, suggesting that impacts of climate and management differ by impact variable. As farm characteristics influence climate impacts on crop yields and income, they are good indicators of adaptive capacity at farm level and should be considered in impact assessment models. Different farm types with different management strategies will adapt differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alternative feed sources are required to improve the environmental and economic sustainability of current pig production systems and to reduce the competition for cropland between the feed and food sectors. The objective of this study was to assess the environmental and economic impacts of utilizing existing and new co-products in the diets of pigs in Brazil. Three diet scenarios were designed: a reference scenario with a standard corn-soybean meal based finishing diet, a macaúba kernel cake based scenario and a co-product based scenario. The diets were equal in nutritional density. Inclusion of co-products in the diet of pigs has the potential to reduce the environmental impacts of pork production, particularly land use and the global warming potential when land use change is included. Compared with the reference scenario, land use per finished pig is 10% lower for the alternative scenarios. Global warming potential per kg live weight is 3.4–7% lower for the alternative scenarios when direct land use change is included whereas it is about 6–7% lower when indirect land use change is included. The land use ratio results (4.84 for the reference scenario and 4.35 for the alternative scenarios) imply that the production of pork using co-products can make available cropland for food crops production for direct human consumption. Compared with the reference finishing diet, the cost prices are 14% lower for the macaúba kernel cake and 5% lower for the co-product based finishing diets. The inclusion of co-products in the diets of pigs is, therefore, an important strategy to improve the environmental and economic sustainability of pig production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper analyzes the influence of three private incentive mechanisms over decision making related to improved sustainability of fishing practices in Filipino tuna fisheries. The three mechanisms compared are the World Wildlife Fund for Nature’s fishery improvement project model, Marine Stewardship Council certification, and the International Seafood Sustainability Foundation Pro-Active Vessel Register. The main question addressed in this paper is how and to what extent the private incentive mechanisms support the development of fisher capabilities to respond to the requirements set out by these mechanisms. Applying a global value chain approach to analyze results collected from key actors involved in Philippine tuna fishers contributing to both domestic and regional economic development in the Western Pacific, we explore the structure and function of these private incentive mechanisms in achieving both environmental and economic development outcomes. Our results show that these private incentive mechanisms deliver different direct and indirect incentives for changing to more sustainable fishing practices, and that the success of these mechanisms is dependent on the extent to which the mechanisms support the development of target fisher capabilities to comply with their sustainability requirements. We conclude that the future success of these incentive mechanisms depends for a large part on stricter sustainability requirements, but also on the capacity of the mechanisms to incentivize the inclusion of more developing country fishers. These findings contribute to a wider understanding of how the capabilities of developing country producers are influenced by their relationship with chain and non-chain actors, and with the wide institutional arrangements that the producers operate in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to increasing concerns about sustainable production, a growing number of European customers expect seafood products to be certified, e.g. by ASC certification. A possible answer to achieve environmental sustainability of Vietnamese pangasius farming is to apply recirculating aquaculture systems (RASs) at the farm. However, RAS requires relatively high initial investments and therefore its adoption depends largely on the economic feasibility in the Vietnamese farming context. The latter includes not only economic factors but also socio-demographic characteristics of the farmers.This study uses a choice experiment to measure farmers' preferences for RAS in pangasius production in Vietnam. Findings show that the probability of adopting RAS is positively associated with expected higher yields and ASC certification with a price premium, whereas it is negatively associated with the initial investment. Location of a farm is also important, i.e. farmers in saltwater intrusion areas are more likely to implement RAS compared to those in freshwater areas. Other variables significantly associated with the probability of adopting RAS are age, education, gender, and household income. The overall probability of adopting RAS was low; the main constraints for adoption of RAS were farmers' uncertainty about the performance of RAS, lack of access to finance and lack of certainty about receiving the ASC price premium. To stimulate the adoption of RAS, we recommend that policy makers target farmers with farms located in saltwater intrusion areas. We further recommend policies that link access to credit with investments in sustainability, and the establishment of pioneer RAS farms as a way to disseminate information about RAS and reduce farmers' uncertainty. Lastly, we recommend that retailers guarantee price premiums for ASC-certified pangasius. Statement of relevance Adoption of recirculating aquaculture systems is considered to be an important step to achieve compliance with sustainability certifications and disease control in pangasius farming. As a result, retailers and buyers in the EU can find pangasius products from environmentally sustainable and socially equitable production systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using linear programming in bio-economic farm modelling often results in overspecialised model solutions. The positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach guarantees exact calibration to base year data but the forecasting capacity of the model is affected by necessary but arbitrary assumptions imposed during calibration. In this article, a new PMP variant is presented which is based on less arbitrary assumptions that, from a theoretical point of view, are closer to the actual decision making of the farmer. The PMP variant is evaluated according to the predictions of the bio-economic farm model, developed within the framework for integrated assessment of agricultural systems in Europe (SEAMLESS). The forecasting capacity of the model calibrated with the standard PMP approach and the alternative PMP variant, respectively, is tested in ex-post experiments for the arable farm types of Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France). The results of the ex-post experiments, in which we try to simulate farm responses in 2003 using a model calibrated to 1999 data, show that the alternative PMP variant improves the forecasting capacity of the model in all tested cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated approach to control of quarantine diseases at the level of the plant production chain is complicated. The involved actors have different interests and the system is complex. Consequently, control policies may not be cost effective. By means of a bio-economic model for brown rot in the Dutch potato production chain, the efficacy of different control options was quantitatively analyzed. An impact analysis was performed using the methodology of "design of experiments" to quantify the effect of factors in interaction on incidence and costs of brown rot. Factors can be grouped as policy, sector, economic, and exogenous factors. Results show that brown rot incidence and economic consequences are determined predominantly by policy and sector factors and, to a lesser extent, by economic and exogenous factors. Scenario studies were performed to elucidate how the government and sector can optimize the cost-effectiveness of brown rot control. Optimal cost-effectiveness of control requires cooperation of the sector and government, in which case brown rot incidence can be reduced by 75% and the costs of control can be reduced by at least 2 million euros per year. This study demonstrates quantitatively the potential contribution of an integrated approach to cost-effective disease control at chain level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of Xylella fastidiosa in Apulia has resulted in the desiccation of millions of olive trees. Here, we employ a multi-country partial equilibrium model to analyze the possible distribution of economic impacts among olive oil processors and consumers. The results suggest that the majority of the impacts would fall on consumers as a consequence of higher prices. If the disease disperses beyond the current extent in Italy the decline in consumer welfare ranges from 4.1 billion to 10.3 billion Euro over the course of 50 years depending on the rate of disease spread. In other words, each of the 195 million households in Europe would incur additional costs ranging 63 cents to 1.6 Euro every year over the course of 50 years. Introductions of the pathogen into Greece or Spain could cost European consumers between 0.4 billion to 3.3 billion Euro and 1.8 billion to 53 billion Euro, respectively. This would correspond to additional annual household costs ranging 6 to 51 cents and 27 cents to 8.2 Euro, respectively. As significant economic consequences from further dispersal of the disease are borne by consumers, the economic threat is not limited to producers but should be contextualized as a societal problem. • Price responses following reductions in supply due to the invader are likely to redistribute economic impacts to consumers. • This market response is expected to be particularly strong due to the inelastic nature of the production system. • Vigilance among growers and citizens is critical to prevent an introduction and further spread of the disease. • Communication of pest risk assessments to the public is key to fostering a better understand of mitigation strategies. • As risks are shared between consumers and producers, invasive species should be contextualized as a societal challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]