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Epidemiological models-which help us understand and forecast the spread of infectious disease-can be valuable tools for public health. However, barriers exist that can make it difficult to employ epidemiological models routinely within the repertoire of public health planning. These barriers include technical challenges associated with constructing the models, challenges in obtaining appropriate data for model parameterization, and problems with clear communication of modeling outputs and uncertainty. To learn about the unique barriers and opportunities within the state of Arizona, we gathered a diverse set of 48 public health stakeholders for a day-and-a-half forum. Our research group was motivated specifically by our work building software for public health-relevant modeling and by our earnest desire to collaborate closely with stakeholders to ensure that our software tools are practical and useful in the face of evolving public health needs. Here we outline the planning and structure of the forum, and we highlight as a case study some of the lessons learned from breakout discussions. While unique barriers exist for implementing modeling for public health, there is also keen interest in doing so across diverse sectors of State and Local government, although issues of equal and fair access to modeling knowledge and technologies remain key issues for future development. We found this forum to be useful for building relationships and informing our software development, and we plan to continue such meetings annually to create a continual feedback loop between academic molders and public health practitioners., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Mihaljevic, Chief, Malik, Oshinubi, Doerry, Gel, Hepp, Lant, Mehrotra and Sabo.)

Objective: This study investigated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among adults over 18 years., Design: Prospective cohort study., Settings: A large public university., Participants: This study took volunteers over 5 days and recruited 1064 adult participants., Primary Outcome Measures: Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies due to previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and/or vaccination., Results: The seroprevalence of the antireceptor binding domain (RBD) antibody was 90% by a lateral flow assay and 88% by a semiquantitative chemiluminescent immunoassay. The seroprevalence for antinucleocapsid was 20%. In addition, individuals with previous natural COVID-19 infection plus vaccination had higher anti-RBD antibody levels compared with those who had vaccination only or infection only. Individuals who had a breakthrough infection had the highest anti-RBD antibody levels., Conclusion: Accurate estimates of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection can inform the development of university risk mitigation protocols such as encouraging booster shots, extending mask mandates or reverting to online classes. It could help us to have clear guidance to act at the first sign of the next surge as well, especially since there is a surge of COVID-19 subvariant infections., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

We conducted a community seroprevalence survey in Arizona, from September 12 to October 1, 2020, to determine the presence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We used the seroprevalence estimate to predict SARS-CoV-2 infections in the jurisdiction by applying the adjusted seroprevalence to the county's population. The estimated community seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 4.3 times greater (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 7.5) than the number of reported cases. Field surveys with representative sampling provide data that may help fill in gaps in traditional public health reporting. ( Am J Public Health . 2022;112(1):38-42. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306568).

Beginning in March 2020, the United States emerged as the global epicenter for COVID-19 cases with little to guide policy response in the absence of extensive data available for reliable epidemiological modeling in the early phases of the pandemic. In the ensuing weeks, American jurisdictions attempted to manage disease spread on a regional basis using non-pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., social distancing), as uneven disease burden across the expansive geography of the United States exerted different implications for policy management in different regions. While Arizona policymakers relied initially on state-by-state national modeling projections from different groups outside of the state, we sought to create a state-specific model using a mathematical framework that ties disease surveillance with the future burden on Arizona's healthcare system. Our framework uses a compartmental system dynamics model using a SEIRD framework that accounts for multiple types of disease manifestations for the COVID-19 infection, as well as the observed time delay in epidemiological findings following public policy enactments. We use a compartment initialization logic coupled with a fitting technique to construct projections for key metrics to guide public health policy, including exposures, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths under a variety of social reopening scenarios. Our approach makes use of X-factor fitting and backcasting methods to construct meaningful and reliable models with minimal available data in order to provide timely policy guidance in the early phases of a pandemic., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: A large-scale public health emergency, such as a severe influenza pandemic, can generate large numbers of critically ill patients in a short time. We modeled the number of mechanical ventilators that could be used in addition to the number of hospital-based ventilators currently in use., Methods: We identified key components of the health care system needed to deliver ventilation therapy, quantified the maximum number of additional ventilators that each key component could support at various capacity levels (ie, conventional, contingency, and crisis), and determined the constraining key component at each capacity level., Results: Our study results showed that US hospitals could absorb between 26,200 and 56,300 additional ventilators at the peak of a national influenza pandemic outbreak with robust pre-pandemic planning., Conclusions: The current US health care system may have limited capacity to use additional mechanical ventilators during a large-scale public health emergency. Emergency planners need to understand their health care systems' capability to absorb additional resources and expand care. This methodology could be adapted by emergency planners to determine stockpiling goals for critical resources or to identify alternatives to manage overwhelming critical care need.

Resilience and the ability to mitigate the consequences of a nuclear incident are enhanced by (1) effective planning, preparation and training; (2) ongoing interaction, formal exercises, and evaluation among the sectors involved; (3) effective and timely response and communication; and (4) continuous improvements based on new science, technology, experience, and ideas. Public health and medical planning require a complex, multi-faceted systematic approach involving federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments; private sector organizations; academia; industry; international partners; and individual experts and volunteers. The approach developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Nuclear Incident Medical Enterprise (NIME) is the result of efforts from government and nongovernment experts. It is a "bottom-up" systematic approach built on the available and emerging science that considers physical infrastructure damage, the spectrum of injuries, a scarce resources setting, the need for decision making in the face of a rapidly evolving situation with limited information early on, timely communication, and the need for tools and just-in-time information for responders who will likely be unfamiliar with radiation medicine and uncertain and overwhelmed in the face of the large number of casualties and the presence of radioactivity. The components of NIME can be used to support planning for, response to, and recovery from the effects of a nuclear incident. Recognizing that it is a continuous work-in-progress, the current status of the public health and medical preparedness and response for a nuclear incident is provided.

As seen in the spring 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak, influenza pandemics can have profound social, legal and economic effects. This experience has also made the importance of public health preparedness exercises more evident. Universities face unique challenges with respect to pandemic preparedness due to their dense student populations, location within the larger community and frequent student/faculty international travel. Depending on the social structure of the community, different mitigation strategies should be applied for decreasing the severity and transmissibility of the disease. To this end, Arizona State University has developed a simulation model and tabletop exercise that facilitates decision-maker interactions around emergency-response scenarios. This simulation gives policy makers the ability to see the real-time impact of their decisions. Therefore, tabletop exercises with computer simulations are developed to practice these decisions, which can possibly give opportunities for practicing better policy implementations. This paper introduces a new method of designing and performing table-top exercises for pandemic influenza via state-of-the-art technologies including system visualization and group decision making with a supporting simulation model. The presented exercise methodology can increase readiness for a pandemic through the support of computer and information technologies and the survey results that we include in this paper certainly support this result. The video scenarios and the computer simulation model make the exercise appear very compelling and real, which makes this presented method of exercising different than the other table-top exercises in the literature. Finally, designing a pandemic preparedness exercise with supporting technologies can help identifying the communication gaps between responsible authorities and advance the table-top exercising methodology.

Similar to the triaging of patients by health care workers, legal and public health professionals must prioritize and respond to issues of law and ethics in declared public health emergencies. As revealed by the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza outbreak and other events, there are considerable inconsistencies among professionals regarding how to best approach these issues during a public health emergency. Our project explores these inconsistencies by attempting to assess how practitioners make legal and ethical decisions in real-time emergencies to further critical public health objectives. Using a fictitious scenario and interactive visualization environment, we observed real-time decision-making processes among knowledgeable participants. Although participants' decisions and perspectives varied, the exercise demonstrated an increase in the perception of the relevance of legal preparedness in multiple aspects of the decision-making process and some key lessons learned for consideration in future repetitions of the exercise and actual, real-time emergency events.

Objective: To examine public knowledge, perceptions, and preparedness for the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic., Design: We conducted a telephone survey of selected households in Arizona during the month of October 2009., Results: Among the 727 households interviewed, one-third (34%) were not aware that the terms swine flu and H1N1 refer to the same virus. Many believed that it is more difficult to contract 2009 H1N1 (27%) than seasonal influenza (14%). About three-quarters of respondents perceived the H1N1 situation as urgent (76%), but only about one-third of those surveyed believed a family member would get sick with H1N1 within a year (35%). Approximately half (53%) of those surveyed intended to get the H1N1 influenza vaccine. Family doctors, television news, and local public health officials were the most trusted sources for H1N1 information., Conclusions: The survey highlighted a number of important misconceptions about H1N1 knowledge, treatment options and transmissibility. Increased efforts should be made to understand how messages are transmitted and received in the community during a pandemic to improve risk communication plans moving forward.

Interdisciplinary research (IDR) teams are an important mechanism for facilitating medical breakthroughs. This study investigates the role of individual-level predictors of the choice to join a new IDR team at a major medical institution. We collected survey data from a sample of 233 faculty members who were given the opportunity to participate in IDR teams that had recently formed around a wide range of medical topic areas. Our results suggest that even under supportive organizational conditions, some medical experts were more likely to participate than others. Specifically, basic and translational researchers, associate professors, and faculty with distinctive topic area expertise and with more experience collaborating across departmental boundaries participated at a greater rate than their peers. Our findings have implications for research, practice, and policy focused on overcoming the challenges of drawing together diverse medical experts into IDR teams with the potential to advance knowledge to prevent, cure, and treat complex medical conditions., (© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Fostering open dialogue, listening, and promoting healthy lifestyles will build solid relationships between physician staff and management. Solid relationships will reduce physician burnout and ultimately, keep a safe and happy productive environment that provides quality health care delivery during ever increasing demands for workplace change.