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BACKGROUNDCOVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) virus-specific antibody levels that translate into recipient posttransfusion antibody levels sufficient to prevent disease progression are not defined.METHODSThis secondary analysis correlated donor and recipient antibody levels to hospitalization risk among unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients within the outpatient, double-blind, randomized clinical trial that compared CCP to control plasma. The majority of COVID-19 CCP arm hospitalizations (15/17, 88%) occurred in this unvaccinated, seronegative subgroup. A functional cutoff to delineate recipient high versus low posttransfusion antibody levels was established by 2 methods: (i) analyzing virus neutralization-equivalent anti-Spike receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin G (anti-S-RBD IgG) responses in donors or (ii) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.RESULTSSARS-CoV-2 anti-S-RBD IgG antibody was volume diluted 21.3-fold into posttransfusion seronegative recipients from matched donor units. Virus-specific antibody delivered was approximately 1.2 mg. The high-antibody recipients transfused early (symptom onset within 5 days) had no hospitalizations. A CCP-recipient analysis for antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations found a statistical significant association between early transfusion and high antibodies versus all other CCP recipients (or control plasma), with antibody cutoffs established by both methods-donor-based virus neutralization cutoffs in posttransfusion recipients (0/85 [0%] versus 15/276 [5.6%]; P = 0.03) or ROC-based cutoff (0/94 [0%] versus 15/267 [5.4%]; P = 0.01).CONCLUSIONIn unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients, early transfusion of plasma units in the upper 30% of study donors antibody levels reduced outpatient hospitalizations. High antibody level plasma units, given early, should be reserved for therapeutic use.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT04373460.FUNDINGDepartment of Defense (W911QY2090012); Defense Health Agency; Bloomberg Philanthropies; the State of Maryland; NIH (3R01AI152078-01S1, U24TR001609-S3, 1K23HL151826NIH); the Mental Wellness Foundation; the Moriah Fund; Octapharma; the Healthnetwork Foundation; the Shear Family Foundation; the NorthShore Research Institute; and the Rice Foundation.

Mammals have limited capacity for heart regeneration, whereas zebrafish have extraordinary regeneration abilities. During zebrafish heart regeneration, endothelial cells promote cardiomyocyte cell cycle reentry and myocardial repair, but the mechanisms responsible for promoting an injury microenvironment conducive to regeneration remain incompletely defined. Here, we identify the matrix metalloproteinase Mmp14b as an essential regulator of heart regeneration. We identify a TEAD-dependent mmp14b endothelial enhancer induced by heart injury in zebrafish and mice, and we show that the enhancer is required for regeneration, supporting a role for Hippo signaling upstream of mmp14b. Last, we show that MMP-14 function in mice is important for the accumulation of Agrin, an essential regulator of neonatal mouse heart regeneration. These findings reveal mechanisms for extracellular matrix remodeling that promote heart regeneration.

The Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO)-Wide Cohort Study (EWC), a collaborative research design comprising 69 cohorts in 31 consortia, was funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in 2016 to improve children's health in the United States. The EWC harmonizes extant data and collects new data using a standardized protocol, the ECHO-Wide Cohort Data Collection Protocol (EWCP). EWCP visits occur at least once per life stage, but the frequency and timing of the visits vary across cohorts. As of March 4, 2022, the EWC cohorts contributed data from 60,553 children and consented 29,622 children for new EWCP data and biospecimen collection. The median (interquartile range) age of EWCP-enrolled children was 7.5 years (3.7-11.1). Surveys, interviews, standardized examinations, laboratory analyses, and medical record abstraction are used to obtain information in 5 main outcome areas: pre-, peri-, and postnatal outcomes; neurodevelopment; obesity; airways; and positive health. Exposures include factors at the level of place (e.g., air pollution, neighborhood socioeconomic status), family (e.g., parental mental health), and individuals (e.g., diet, genomics).

BackgroundThe efficacy of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) convalescent plasma (CCP) for preventing infection in exposed, uninfected individuals is unknown. CCP might prevent infection when administered before symptoms or laboratory evidence of infection.MethodsThis double-blinded, phase 2 randomized, controlled trial (RCT) compared the efficacy and safety of prophylactic high titer (≥1:320 by Euroimmun ELISA) CCP with standard plasma. Asymptomatic participants aged ≥18 years with close contact exposure to a person with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the previous 120 hours and negative SARS-CoV-2 test within 24 hours before transfusion were eligible. The primary outcome was new SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsIn total, 180 participants were enrolled; 87 were assigned to CCP and 93 to control plasma, and 170 transfused at 19 sites across the United States from June 2020 to March 2021. Two were excluded for screening SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity. Of the remaining 168 participants, 12/81 (14.8%) CCP and 13/87 (14.9%) control recipients developed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 6 (7.4%) CCP and 7 (8%) control recipients developed COVID-19 (infection with symptoms). There were no COVID-19-related hospitalizations in CCP and 2 in control recipients. Efficacy by restricted mean infection free time (RMIFT) by 28 days for all SARS-CoV-2 infections (25.3 vs 25.2 days; P = .49) and COVID-19 (26.3 vs 25.9 days; P = .35) was similar for both groups.ConclusionsAdministration of high-titer CCP as post-exposure prophylaxis, although appearing safe, did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.Clinical trials registrationNCT04323800.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the normal delivery of HIV care, altered social support networks, and caused economic insecurity. People with HIV (PWH) are vulnerable to such disruptions, particularly if they have a history of substance use. We describe engagement in care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for PWH during the pandemic.MethodsFrom May 2020 to February 2021, 773 PWH enrolled in 6 existing cohorts completed 1495 surveys about substance use and engagement in HIV care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We described the prevalence and correlates of having missed a visit with an HIV provider in the past month and having missed a dose of ART in the past week.ResultsThirteen percent of people missed an HIV visit in the past month. Missing a visit was associated with unstable housing, food insecurity, anxiety, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, and substance use including cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use. Nineteen percent of people reported missing at least one dose of ART in the week prior to their survey. Missing a dose of ART was associated with being a man, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use, and experiencing disruptions to substance use treatment.ConclusionsSocial determinants of health, substance use, and disruptions to mental health and substance use treatment were associated with poorer engagement in HIV care. Close attention to continuity of care during times of social disruption is especially critical for PWH.

BackgroundAlcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic increased. People living with HIV or at risk for HIV acquisition often have psycho-social and structural barriers or co-occurring substance use making them vulnerable to the adverse effects of alcohol. We describe factors associated with alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic in this group.MethodsFrom May 2020 to February 2021, 1984 people enrolled in 6 existing cohort studies completed surveys about alcohol and other drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the past-month prevalence of no alcohol use, low-risk use, and hazardous use. We use multinomial regression to describe factors associated with low-risk or hazardous alcohol use relative to no alcohol use.ResultsForty-five percent of participants reported no alcohol use, 33% low-risk use, and 22% hazardous use in the past 30 days. Cannabis and stimulant use were associated with a higher prevalence of low-risk use relative to no use. Tobacco, stimulant, cannabis use and recent overdose were associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous use relative to no use. Substance use treatment and living with HIV were associated with a lower prevalence of low-risk or hazardous use relative to no use.ConclusionsStimulant use was strongly associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous alcohol use while engagement in substance use treatment or living with HIV was associated with a lower prevalence. Ascertaining hazardous alcohol and other drug use, particularly stimulants, in clinical care could identify people at higher risk for adverse outcome and harm reduction counseling.

BackgroundSurvey response rates among physicians are declining, and determining an appropriate level of compensation to motivate participation poses a major challenge. ObjectiveTo estimate the effect of permitting intensive care physicians to select their preferred level of compensation for completing a short Web-based survey on physician (1) response rate, (2) survey completion rate, (3) time to response, and (4) time spent completing the survey. MethodsA total of 1850 US intensivists from an existing database were randomized to receive a survey invitation email with or without an Amazon.com incentive available to the first 100 respondents. The incentive could be instantly redeemed for an amount chosen by the respondent, up to a maximum of US $50. ResultsThe overall response rate was 35.90% (630/1755). Among the 35.4% (111/314) of eligible participants choosing the incentive, 80.2% (89/111) selected the maximum value. Among intensivists offered an incentive, the response was 6.0% higher (95% CI 1.5-10.5, P=.01), survey completion was marginally greater (807/859, 94.0% vs 892/991, 90.0%; P=.06), and the median number of days to survey response was shorter (0.8, interquartile range [IQR] 0.2-14.4 vs 6.6, IQR 0.3-22.3; P=.001), with no difference in time spent completing the survey. ConclusionsPermitting intensive care physicians to determine compensation level for completing a short Web-based survey modestly increased response rate and substantially decreased response time without decreasing the time spent on survey completion.

The low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) controls cellular delivery of cholesterol and clears LDL from the bloodstream, protecting against atherosclerotic heart disease, the leading cause of death in the United States. We therefore sought to identify regulators of the LDLR beyond the targets of current therapies and known causes of familial hypercholesterolemia. We found that cold shock domain-containing protein E1 (CSDE1) enhanced hepatic LDLR messenger RNA (mRNA) decay via its 3' untranslated region and regulated atherogenic lipoproteins in vivo. Using parallel phenotypic genome-wide CRISPR interference screens in a tissue culture model, we identified 40 specific regulators of the LDLR that were not previously identified by observational human genetic studies. Among these, we demonstrated that, in HepG2 cells, CSDE1 regulated the LDLR at least as strongly as statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors. In addition, we showed that hepatic gene silencing of Csde1 treated diet-induced dyslipidemia in mice to a similar degree as Pcsk9 silencing. These results suggest the therapeutic potential of targeting CSDE1 to manipulate the posttranscriptional regulation of the LDLR mRNA for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Our approach of modeling a clinically relevant phenotype in a forward genetic screen, followed by mechanistic pharmacologic dissection and in vivo validation, may serve as a generalizable template for the identification of therapeutic targets in other human disease states.

BackgroundPolyclonal convalescent plasma may be obtained from donors who have recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). The efficacy of this plasma in preventing serious complications in outpatients with recent-onset Covid-19 is uncertain.MethodsIn this multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of Covid-19 convalescent plasma, as compared with control plasma, in symptomatic adults (≥18 years of age) who had tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, regardless of their risk factors for disease progression or vaccination status. Participants were enrolled within 8 days after symptom onset and received a transfusion within 1 day after randomization. The primary outcome was Covid-19-related hospitalization within 28 days after transfusion.ResultsParticipants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, through October 1, 2021. A total of 1225 participants underwent randomization, and 1181 received a transfusion. In the prespecified modified intention-to-treat analysis that included only participants who received a transfusion, the primary outcome occurred in 17 of 592 participants (2.9%) who received convalescent plasma and 37 of 589 participants (6.3%) who received control plasma (absolute risk reduction, 3.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 5.8; P = 0.005), which corresponded to a relative risk reduction of 54%. Evidence of efficacy in vaccinated participants cannot be inferred from these data because 53 of the 54 participants with Covid-19 who were hospitalized were unvaccinated and 1 participant was partially vaccinated. A total of 16 grade 3 or 4 adverse events (7 in the convalescent-plasma group and 9 in the control-plasma group) occurred in participants who were not hospitalized.ConclusionsIn participants with Covid-19, most of whom were unvaccinated, the administration of convalescent plasma within 9 days after the onset of symptoms reduced the risk of disease progression leading to hospitalization. (Funded by the Department of Defense and others; CSSC-004 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04373460.).

Substance use in the U.S. varies by geographic region. Opioid prescribing practices and marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine availability are evolving differently across regions. We examined self-reported substance use among people living with HIV (PLWH) in care at seven sites from 2017-2019 to understand current regional substance use patterns. We calculated the percentage and standardized percentage of PLWH reporting current drug use and at-risk and binge alcohol use by U.S. Census Bureau geographic region and examined associations in adjusted logistic regression analyses. Among 7,686 PLWH, marijuana use was the most prevalent drug (30%), followed by methamphetamine/crystal (8%), cocaine/crack (7%), and illicit opioids (3%). One-third reported binge alcohol use (32%). Differences in percent of current use by region were seen for marijuana (24-41%) and methamphetamine/crystal (2-15%), with more use in the West and Northeast, and binge alcohol use (26-40%). In adjusted analyses, PLWH in the Midwest were significantly less likely to use methamphetamine/crystal (aOR: 0.13;0.06-0.25) or illicit opioids (aOR:0.16;0.05-0.53), and PLWH in the Northeast were more likely to use cocaine/crack (aOR:1.59;1.16-2.17), compared to PLWH in the West. Understanding differences in substance use patterns in the current era, as policies continue to evolve, will enable more targeted interventions in clinical settings among PLWH.

BackgroundPersons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) experience a high burden of cancer. It remains unknown which cancer types are reduced in PLWH with earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsWe evaluated AIDS-free, ART-naive PLWH during 1996-2014 from 22 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PLWH were followed from first observed CD4 of 350-500 cells/µL (baseline) until incident cancer, death, lost-to-follow-up, or December 2014. Outcomes included 6 cancer groups and 5 individual cancers that were confirmed by chart review or cancer registry linkage. We evaluated the effect of earlier (in the first 6 months after baseline) versus deferred ART initiation on cancer risk. Marginal structural models were used with inverse probability weighting to account for time-dependent confounding and informative right-censoring, with weights informed by subject's age, sex, cohort, baseline year, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, smoking, viral hepatitis, CD4, and AIDS diagnoses.ResultsProtective results for earlier ART were found for any cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.86), AIDS-defining cancers (HR 0.23; 95% CI, .11-.49), any virus-related cancer (HR 0.30; 95% CI, .16-.54), Kaposi sarcoma (HR 0.25; 95% CI, .10-.61), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.22; 95% CI, .06-.73). By 15 years, there was also an observed reduced risk with earlier ART for virus-related NADCs (0.6% vs 2.3%; adjusted risk difference -1.6; 95% CI, -2.8, -.5).ConclusionsEarlier ART initiation has potential to reduce the burden of virus-related cancers in PLWH but not non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) without known or suspected viral etiology.

BackgroundCollaborative research often combines findings across multiple, independent studies via meta-analysis. Ideally, all study estimates that contribute to the meta-analysis will be equally unbiased. Many meta-analyses require all studies to measure the same covariates. We explored whether differing minimally sufficient sets of confounders identified by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) ensures comparability of individual study estimates. Our analysis applied four statistical estimators to multiple minimally sufficient adjustment sets identified in a single DAG.MethodsWe compared estimates obtained via linear, log-binomial, and logistic regression and inverse probability weighting, and data were simulated based on a previously published DAG.ResultsOur results show that linear, log-binomial, and inverse probability weighting estimators generally provide the same estimate of effect for different estimands that are equally sufficient to adjust confounding bias, with modest differences in random error. In contrast, logistic regression often performed poorly, with notable differences in effect estimates obtained from unique minimally sufficient adjustment sets, and larger standard errors than other estimators.ConclusionsOur findings do not support the reliance of collaborative research on logistic regression results for meta-analyses. Use of DAGs to identify potentially differing minimally sufficient adjustment sets can allow meta-analyses without requiring the exact same covariates.

BackgroundStudies suggest lower risk of breast cancer in women with HIV versus without HIV. These estimates may be biased by lower life expectancy and younger age distribution of women with HIV. Our analysis evaluated this bias and characterized secular trends in breast cancer among women with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesized breast cancer risk would increase over time as mortality decreased.SettingWomen with HIV prescribed antiretroviral therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1997 through 2016.MethodsWe estimated breast cancer hazard (cause-specific hazard ratios) and cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks (subdistribution hazard ratios) to assess changes in breast cancer risk over time. This was assessed overall (1997-2016) and within/across calendar periods. Analyses were adjusted for race/ethnicity and inverse probability weighted for cohort. Cumulative incidence was graphically assessed by calendar period and race/ethnicity.ResultsWe observed 11,587 women during 1997-2016, contributing 63 incident breast cancer diagnoses and 1,353 deaths [73,445 person-years (median follow-up = 4.5 years)]. Breast cancer cumulative incidence was 3.2% for 1997-2016. We observed no secular trends in breast cancer hazard or cumulative incidence. There were annual declines in the hazard and cumulative incidence of death (cause-specific hazard ratios and subdistribution hazard ratios: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.91) which remained within and across calendar periods.ConclusionsThese findings contradict the hypothesis of increasing breast cancer risk with declining mortality over time among women with HIV, suggesting limited impact of changing mortality on breast cancer risk. Additional inquiry is merited as survival improves among women with HIV.

We examined HIV viral load non-suppression ([Formula: see text] 200 copies/mL) subsequent to person-periods (3-18 months) bookended by two self-reports of alcohol use on a standardized patient reported outcome assessment among adults in routine HIV care. We examined the relative risk (RR) of non-suppression associated with increases and decreases in alcohol use (relative to stable use), stratified by use at the start of the person-period. Increases in drinking from abstinence were associated with higher risk of viral non-suppression (low-risk without binge: RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03, 1.32; low-risk with binge: RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11, 1.63; high-risk: RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16, 3.08). Decreases in drinking from high-risk drinking were weakly, and not statistically significantly associated with lower risk of viral non-suppression. Other changes in alcohol use were not associated with viral load non-suppression. Most changes in alcohol consumption among people using alcohol at baseline were not strongly associated with viral non-suppression.

The low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) controls cellular delivery of cholesterol and clears LDL from the bloodstream, protecting against atherosclerotic heart disease, the leading cause of death in the United States. We therefore sought to identify regulators of the LDLR beyond the targets of current clinical therapies and known causes of familial hypercholesterolemia. We show that Cold Shock Domain-Containing Protein E1 (CSDE1) enhances hepatic LDLR mRNA decay via its 3’ untranslated region to regulate atherogenic lipoproteins in vivo . Using parallel phenotypic genome-wide CRISPR interference screens, we found 40 specific regulators of the LDLR left unidentified by observational human genetics. Among these, we show that CSDE1 regulates the LDLR at least as strongly as the mechanistically distinct pathways exploited by the best available clinical therapies: statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. Additionally, we show that hepatic gene silencing of Csde1 treats diet-induced dyslipidemia in mice better than that of Pcsk9 . Our results reveal the therapeutic potential of manipulating a newly identified key factor in the post-transcriptional regulation of the LDLR mRNA for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. We anticipate that our approach of modelling a clinically relevant phenotype in a forward genetic screen, followed by mechanistic pharmacologic dissection and in vivo validation, will serve as a generalizable template for the identification of therapeutic targets in other human disease states. One Sentence Summary A genome-wide CRISPR screen identifies CSDE1 as a key regulator of hepatic LDLR mRNA decay in vivo , making it a promising target for heart disease. Graphical Abstract

Among people with HIV, alcohol use is associated with increased prevalence of sexual transmission behaviors. We examined associations between alcohol use in the prior year and sexual behaviors approximately six months later among 1857 women, 6752 men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2685 men who have sex with women (MSW). Any alcohol use was associated with increased risk of unsafe vaginal sex among women; anal sex and =>2 anal sex partners among MSM; and anal sex, =>2 anal or vaginal sex partners, and unsafe vaginal sex among MSW. In particular, among women >7 alcoholic drinks/week and among MSW =>5 alcoholic drinks/drinking day increased the likelihood of certain subsequent sexual behaviors. For all groups, especially women, the risk of sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol markedly increased with increases in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption. These different patterns of drinking and sexual behaviors indicate the importance of tailored counseling messages to women, MSM and MSW.

Few studies examine how depression and substance use interact to affect HIV control. In 14,380 persons with HIV (PWH), we used logistic regression and generalized estimating equations to evaluate how symptoms of depression interact with alcohol, cocaine, opioid, and methamphetamine use to affect subsequent retention in care, maintaining an active prescription for ART, and consistent virologic suppression. Among PWH with no or mild depressive symptoms, heavy alcohol use had no association with virologic suppression (OR 1.00 [0.95-1.06]); among those with moderate or severe symptoms, it was associated with reduced viral suppression (OR 0.80 [0.74-0.87]). We found no interactions with heavy alcohol use on retention in care or maintaining ART prescription or with other substances for any outcome. These results highlight the importance of treating moderate or severe depression in PWH, especially with comorbid heavy alcohol use, and support multifaceted interventions targeting alcohol use and depression.

BackgroundBecause HIV viral suppression is essential for optimal outcomes and prevention efforts, understanding trends and predictors is imperative to inform public health policy.ObjectiveTo evaluate viral suppression trends in people living with HIV (PLWH), including the relationship of associated factors, such as demographic characteristics and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (ISTI) use.DesignLongitudinal observational cohort study.Setting8 HIV clinics across the United States.ParticipantsPLWH receiving clinical care.MeasurementsTo understand trends in viral suppression (≤400 copies/mL), annual viral suppression rates from 1997 to 2015 were determined. Analyses were repeated with tests limited to 1 random test per person per year and using inverse probability of censoring weights to address loss to follow-up. Joint longitudinal and survival models and linear mixed models of PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) were used to examine associations between viral suppression or continuous viral load (VL) levels and demographic factors, substance use, adherence, and ISTI use.ResultsViral suppression increased from 32% in 1997 to 86% in 2015 on the basis of all tests among 31 930 PLWH. In adjusted analyses, being older (odds ratio [OR], 0.76 per decade [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.78]) and using an ISTI-based regimen (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.51 to 0.57]) were associated with lower odds of having a detectable VL, and black race was associated with higher odds (OR, 1.68 [CI, 1.57 to 1.80]) (P < 0.001 for each). Similar patterns were seen with continuous VL levels; when analyses were limited to 2010 to 2015; and with adjustment for adherence, substance use, or depression.LimitationResults are limited to PLWH receiving clinical care.ConclusionHIV viral suppression rates have improved dramatically across the United States, which is likely partially attributable to improved ART, including ISTI-based regimens. However, disparities among younger and black PLWH merit attention.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health.

Multimorbidity, defined as having 2 or more chronic conditions, is a growing public health concern, but research in this area is complicated by the fact that multimorbidity is a highly heterogenous outcome. Individuals in a sample may have a differing number and varied combinations of conditions. Clustering methods, such as unsupervised machine learning algorithms, may allow us to tease out the unique multimorbidity phenotypes. However, many clustering methods exist, and choosing which to use is challenging because we do not know the true underlying clusters. Here, we demonstrate the use of 3 individual algorithms (partition around medoids, hierarchical clustering, and probabilistic clustering) and a clustering ensemble approach (which pools different clustering approaches) to identify multimorbidity clusters in the AIDS Linked to the Intravenous Experience cohort study. We show how the clusters can be compared based on cluster quality, interpretability, and predictive ability. In practice, it is critical to compare the clustering results from multiple algorithms and to choose the approach that performs best in the domain(s) that aligns with plans to use the clusters in future analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundOur aim was to describe alcohol consumption trajectories in a cohort of people living with HIV and determine clinical and sociodemographic predictors of each trajectory.MethodsThis is a prospective cohort study of 7,906 patients in the 7 Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites. Alcohol consumption was categorized as none, moderate, and alcohol misuse. Predictors included age, race/ethnicity, depressive or anxiety symptoms, illicit drug use (opioids, methamphetamines, cocaine/crack), marijuana use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, HIV transmission risk factor, and HIV disease progression. We estimated sex-stratified alcohol consumption trajectories and their predictors.ResultsWe found 7 trajectories of alcohol consumption in men: stable nondrinking and increased drinking (71% and 29% of initial nondrinking); stable moderate, reduced drinking, and increased alcohol misuse (59%, 21%, and 21% of initial moderate alcohol use); and stable alcohol misuse and reduced alcohol misuse (75% and 25% of initial alcohol misuse). Categories were similar in women, except lack of an increase to alcohol misuse trajectory among women that begin with moderate use. Older men and women were more likely to have stable nondrinking, while younger men were more likely to increase to or remain in alcohol misuse. Minorities, people with depressive or anxiety symptoms, HCV-infected individuals, and people who injected drugs were more likely to reduce use. Illicit drug use was associated with a reduction in overall drinking, while marijuana use was associated with stable moderate drinking or misuse.ConclusionsLongitudinal trajectories of increasing alcohol use and stable misuse highlight the need to integrate routine screening and alcohol misuse interventions into HIV primary care.

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data.

Marginal structural models for time-fixed treatments fit using inverse-probability weighted estimating equations are increasingly popular. Nonetheless, the resulting effect estimates are subject to finite-sample bias when data are sparse, as is typical for large-sample procedures. Here we propose a semi-Bayes estimation approach which penalizes or shrinks the estimated model parameters to improve finite-sample performance. This approach uses simple symmetric data-augmentation priors. Limited simulation experiments indicate that the proposed approach reduces finite-sample bias and improves confidence-interval coverage when the true values lie within the central "hill" of the prior distribution. We illustrate the approach with data from a nonexperimental study of HIV treatments.